Role of Innovation System in Coffee Agroforestry System to Adapt to Climate Change in Kenyan Coffee and Dairy Sectors

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Role of Innovation System in Coffee Agroforestry

System to Adapt to Climate Change in Kenyan Coffee

and Dairy Sectors

Presenter:

Kinfe ASAYEHEGN

Co-authors:

Ludovic TEMPLE, Cirad UMR Innovation Ana IGLESIAS,

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Presentation Plan



Introduction



Area of the Study



Data and Methods



Results and Discussion



Conclusions

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Why to adapt to climate change



The IPCC biophysical and socio-ecological working groups

and other researchers confirmed that climate change is a

reality.



An increase in global food demand: demand for cereals, is

expected to increase by 70% (Smith et al., 2006) and

livestock products by 50% in the next half

century(Thornton, 2010).



Agriculture is among the sectors highly affected by CC

(Bryan et al., 2013; Lobell et al., 2008).

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Climate change impacts in agriculture ( IPCC, 2013)

2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089 20 40 60 80 100 PE RC EN TA G E O F YI EL D PRO JE C TI O N S 0 2090-2109 0 – -5% -5 – -10% -10 – -25% -25 – -50% -50 – -100% 50 – 100% 25 – 50% 10 – 25% 5 – 10% 0 – 5% Range of Yield Change

Increase in Yield

Decrease in Yield

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Why Innovation in coffee agroforestry?



An adjustment to the actual or expected changes in the agricultural sector using different innovative adaptation strategies has to be

among priorities in policy decisions.



Adaptation- process of adjustment to actual or expected climate effects, seeks to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2014)



Different agents (producers, institutions, food industries) and

scales (from individual to global scale) (Wreford et al. 2010)

 Reducing the sensitivity of the affected system  _{Altering the}_exposure _{of a system to the impact}

 Increasing the resilience and building capacity of socio-ecological systems ( Adger, 2006; Gallopin, 2006) .

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This presentation therefore focuses on two case studies

in the Kenyan coffee based agroforestry system, i.e. the

coffee and dairy sectors, which differ in terms of

stakeholders and institutional setups.

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what characteristics of the innovation systems are particular to each sector in the adaptation process to climate change?

2)

How these characteristics of the innovation affect the adaptation process and competitiveness of the sectors?

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Data collection

 Survey data



Face-to-face FGDs 9 FGDs



Household interviews 120 interviews



Historical analysis

 Key informant interviews

 Stakeholders‘ interview (n=23)



Officials and experts : MOA, CRI, cooperatives and unions, private sectors, international Research centres, NGOs, CBOs,

 Historical climate data (1980-2014) , public data bases

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Coffee farmers Dairy farmers

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Methodology

(1) characterized the innovation system of the coffee sector and

dairy sector separately,

(2) combined the analysis to understand the difference in the

innovation system of the two sectors and what affects for the

competitiveness across the sectors,

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Measured changes in Temperature

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Measured changes in Rainfall

y = -17,102x + 1487,2 R² = 0,1814 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 R ai n fa ll in m m Years Coffee zone y = -0,6509x + 941,31 R² = 0,0006 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 R ai n fa ll in m m Years Food crops zone

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Mann-Kendall test of significance

Variable

Mann-Kendall’s tau

p-value Sen’s slope Mean

T Max 0.503 <0.0001** 0.043 25.75

T min 0.509 <0.0001** 0.032 14.19

T inter annual variability 0.592 <0.0001** 0.037 0.033

Rainfall coffee -0.334 0.0040** -17.100 1179.00

Rainfall food -0.052 0.6730 -1.485 925.72

Significance level(%): 5

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Actors’ interaction in the coffee sector

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Actors’ interaction in the dairy sector

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Conclusions

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Farmers who are aware of CC are more willing to explore adaptation strategies, further improves their hh income.

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The strong correlation b/n socio-institutional variables and adaptation suggests the need for the establishment of local institutions

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Adaptation to CC in the coffee and dairy depends on the roles of SSI



in the coffee, actors’ system is centralized and the SI is oriented on

technology dev’t while the dairy sector, is based on institutional building.

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The capacity to innovate, depends on institutional arrangement in addition to the technology dev’t, suggesting the dairy could be an example for the coffee sector.

Role of Innovation System in Coffee Agroforestry System to Adapt to Climate Change in Kenyan Coffee and Dairy Sectors