A NNALES DE L ’I. H. P., SECTION B
V ICTOR H. D E LA P EÑA
A bound on the moment generating function of a sum of dependent variables with an application to simple random sampling without replacement
Annales de l’I. H. P., section B, tome 30, n
o2 (1994), p. 197-211
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A bound
onthe moment generating function of
a sumof dependent variables with
anapplication to simple
random sampling without replacement
Victor H. DE LA
PEÑA (1)
Department of Statistics,
Columbia University NY, NY 10027, U.S.A.
Vol. 30, n° 2, 1994, p. 197-211. Probabilités et Statistiques
ABSTRACT. - In this paper we prove the
following inequality:
Letbe an
arbitrary
sequence of random variables. Then there exists a 6-field
G,
and aG-conditionally independent sequence {yi} tangent
(in particular,
yi has the same distribution as x~ for alli)
such that for allX,
n
As
application
of the above we show that the tail behaviourof L Yi
controls the tail behaviour
of L
xi whenever theconditionally independent
sequence is sub-Gaussian.
Furthermore, by considering À
as a randomvariable
independent
we show that(* ) implies
several newdecoupling inequalities including
a new result forl2
valued random variab- les.Making
thetheory
ofdecoupling
available to the mainstream of statistics wegive
severalexamples
where theconditionally independent
A.M.S. Classification: 60 E 15, 60G 40, 60 G 50, 60 G 42.
(~)
Supported in part by N.S.F. Grants DMS-9108006, 9002252.Annales de I’Institut Henri Poincaré - Probabilités et Statistiques - 0246-0203
sequence can be
identified,
and introduceconditionally independent
sam-pling
as an alternativesampling
scheme tosampling
withoutreplacement
from finite
populations.
Key words : Decoupling, tangent sequences, moment generating function, Laplace transform, sampling without replacement, martingales.
RESUME. - Nous etablissons
l’inégalité
suivante : une suite arbitraire de variables aleatoires.Alors,
il existe une tribu ~ et une suite de variablesaléatoires {yi}
%-conditionnellementindependante, tangente (en particulier, yi
a la meme loi que xi pour touti )
telle que pour tout À :Comme
application
de(* ),
nous montrons que des est « sous-n
gaussienne
», lecomportement
de la queuede L
yi controle celui dei=1 i
n
L
xi. Parailleurs,
nous obtenons grace a(* ) plusieurs
nouvellesinegalites
de
decouplage
et notamment un nouveau resultat pour des variables aleatoires aux valeurs del2.
Afin de rendre la theorie dudecouplage
utile pour les
statistiques,
nous donnonsplusieurs exemples
ou la suite conditionnellementindépendante peut
etre identifiee et nous introduisons les echantillons conditionnellementindependants
comme une alternativepossible
des echantillons sans remise apartir
d’unepopulation
finie.0. INTRODUCTION
In this paper we introduce several
inequalities comparing
functionals ofarbitrary
random variables to functionals ofconditionally independent
random variables. In
particular,
wepresent
a newinequality
for themoment
generating
function of anarbitrary
sum of realdependent
variab-les. We use this
inequality
to make astudy
on the tail behaviour of sumsof
arbitrary
random variables. We also show how to turn the aboveinequality
into a machine forgenerating decoupling inequalities (to
bedefined
later) by
the use of theLaplace
transform and other transforms.Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré - Probabilités et Statistiques
As a statistical
application,
we introduce a newsampling
scheme whichwe call
conditionally independent sampling
as an alternatesampling
sch-eme to
simple
randomsampling
withoutreplacement.
A
decoupling inequality typically
aims atmaking comparisons
betweentwo processes one of which may have a
simpler dependency
structure.This
type
ofinequality
has proven to be a useful tool insolving important problems
from various areas ofprobability
and statistics. Anearly
resultof D. L. Burkholder and T. R. McConnell
(see
Lemma 1 of Burkholder[2]) dealing
withproblems involving martingale
transforms of a Rademacher sequence has beenimportant
in thestudy
ofintegral operators
onLebesg-
ue-Bochner spaces. A second
early
paper ofJacod [ 11 ]
dealt with theuse of
decoupling
inextending
thetheory
ofsemimartingales.
Ofspecial importance
is the work on multinilear forms ofindependent
randomvariables of McConnell and
Taqqu [21] which inspired
much of the initialwork on
decoupling inequalities.
In the area of stochasticintegration
the results in McConnell
[23],
Krakowiak andSzulga [16], Kwapien
andWoyczynski [18]
andKallenberg
andSzulga [13]
have had animportant
influence. The
theory
ofsequential analysis
has benefited from the worksof Klass
[14], [15]
and de la Pena[6].
In those papers,they provide general-
izations of Wald’s lemma for
randomly stopped
sums ofindependent
variables. The
general theory
ofmartingales
was advanced as a result ofthe
development
of bestpossible Lp
bounds formartingales
asgiven
inde la Pena
[4].
In the area of theoreticalstatistics,
de la Pena[5]
containsa
decoupling
result for U-statistics(more generally U-processes)
which asan
application gives
a newsymmetrization inequality
forU-processes.
Thissymmetrization inequality
was usedby
Arcones and Giné[1]
as akey
toolin
developing
thegeneral theory
ofU-processes. They
used it(among
other
things)
to obtainexponential
and Bernstein’stype inequalities
forU-statistics.
The results on
decoupling inequalities
in Zinn[24]
and Hitczenko[7]
provided
a solid foundation for thetheory
ofdecoupling by introducing fairly general
results that arereadily applicable.
Their results consist ofdecoupling inequalities showing
that theLp
norms of two tangent processesare
equivalent
in several instances(see
Definition 1below ).
Thetheory
was further advanced
by
the tailprobability comparison
results for tangent sequences ofKwapien
andWoyczynski [18], [19],
latergeneralized by Kwapien
andWoyczynski [20]
and de la Pena[6].
These results allow fortail
comparisons
such asLenglart-type
and Good-Lambdainequalities.
Kwapien [17]
andKwapien
andWoyczynski [20]
include severalgeneral
results
including
strictdecoupling inequalities
for the tailprobabilities
ofquadratic
forms ofindependent symmetric
variables and certain multilinear forms.It is to be remarked that the known results
(previous
to ourown)
didnot include
general exponential decoupling inequalities,
which as in thecase of
[ 1 ]
have been shown to be useful tools inapplications.
As acontinuation of our
previous
work this paperpresents
newexponential decoupling inequalities
for sums ofarbitrarily dependent
random variables.It is
important
to observe that "ThePrinciple
ofConditioning"
introducedin Jakubowski
[12]
isclosely
related todecoupling
ideas and hasinspired
our
present
work ondecoupling inequalities.
We start
by introducing
some relevantexamples
inparticular
anexample dealing
withsimple
randomsampling
withoutreplacement.
1. DEFINITIONS AND EXAMPLES
DEFINITION 1. - be two sequences
of
random variablesadapted
to anincreasing
sequence Then is said tobe
tangent if for
alli,
~(xi ( ~ i _ 1 )
_ ~( ~ ~ -1 ),
were ~(xi)
stands
for
theprobability
lawof
xi.DEFINITION 2. - A sequence
of
randomvariables {xi}
is said to beconditionally symmetric if
xt istangent
to - x~for
all i.DEFINITION 3. - A
sequence {yi} of
random variablesadapted
to anincreasing
sequenceof a field ~ ~ ~ ~
contained in ~ is said to be condition-ally independent (CI)
is there exists a03C3-algebra G
contained in F suchthat {yi}
isconditionally independent given G
DEFINITION 4. -
Let ~
be anarbitrary
sequenceof
randomvariables,
then aconditionally independent sequence {yi}
which is alsotangent
to~
will be called adecoupled
versionof ~
A
key
result in the area ofdecoupling inequalities,
which will be usedextensively
in this paper was introduced inKwapien
andWoyczynski [ 18]
(see
also Jakubowski[12]).
We state it as aproposition.
PROPOSITION 1. - For any sequence
of
random variables one canfind
adecoupled sequence {yi} (on
apossibly enlarged probability space)
which is
tangent
to theoriginal
sequence and in additionconditionally independent given
a master « field ~.Frequently ~ _ ~ (~
xi}).
Detailsof
this result may also be
found
in Hitczenko[8].
One
approach
forconstructing
aconditionally independent
sequence is toproceed sequencially. Assuming
that at thej-th stage
in thesampling
process
producing (
it ispossible
to obtain aconditionally independent
copy
y~
ofx~ given
xl, ..., Thefollowing diagram
illustrates the idea.Annales de I’Institut Henri Poincaré - Probabilités et Statistiques
Let y 1 be an
independent
copy of Foreach j~2,
At
the j-th stage, given {x1,
...,x j and y j
are drawn fromindepen-
dent
repetitions
of the same random mechanism.In what follows we
present
threeexamples identifying
adecoupled
version for several discrete time processes. In
particular Example
1 showshow to obtain
conditionally independent
processestangent
torandomly stopped
sums,U-statistics, quadratic
forms andmartingale
transforms ofindependent
variables.Example
1. - be a sequence ofindependent
variables. Let be anindependent
copy Take measurablefunctions ( £ )
from
Ri - R. Then, fi (z 1’
... , ’ is tangent tof j (z 1’ ’
. ’ ’ ’with
~ n = ~ (zl,
..., zn;Zl’
...,zn).
The results to be introduced in thisn n
paper, can be used to to
~
j=i j’=i
...,
z j _ 1;
which is a sum ofconditionally independent
variablesz2, ... ).
Inparticular,
the case of U-statistics with kernelj-i
f can
be obtainedby Zj-l; By letting
i=
1j
for some
constants {aij}
onegets
qua-dratic forms. In this case it is
possible
to compare thequadratic
formn
B
nj-l B-
case ofmartingale
transforms of
independent
variables take...,
(zl,
...,for mean zero
zis
and measurablevis.
We can also deal withrandomly stopped
sums ofindependent
variablesby letting f j (z 1, ... , z j -1;
for T a
stopping
time on thesequence {zi}/
ThenL
Zi= L
Zi 1(T ~ i),
andby using decoupling
one couldcompare £
zii=1 i=1 i=1
T
to L Zi.
i= 1
The next
example
shows theimportance
ofdecoupling
in thestudy
ofsimple
randomsampling
withoutreplacement
from finitepopulations.
Todo this
conditionally independent sampling
is introduced andcompared
tosimple
randomsampling
withoutreplacement.
Forconvenience,
the nota- tion for random variables and their associatedsample
values is the same.Example
2. - Considerdrawing
asample
of size n from a box with NThe
sequence {xi}ni=1
i willrepresent
asample
withoutreplacement {yi}ni=1
1 aconditionally independent sample
and {Zi }ni=1
i asample
withreplacement.
Inobtaining
aconditionally
inde-pendent
sequenceproceed
as follows. At the i-thstage
of asimple
randomsample
withoutreplacement both x; and yi
are obtainedby sampling uniformly from {b1,
...,bN ~B{
xl, ..., xi_ 1~.
This may be attainedby
randomization if N is known or
by selectively returning
balls to the boxafter
sampling
if N is unknown. Moreprecisely,
we can obtain both sequences in thefollowing
way: at the i-thstage
at first we draw y;, return theball,
thendraw xi
andput
the ball aside. It is easy to seethat the above
procedure
will tangent withxn; Yl,...’
Yn) (see
Definition1). Moreover, { yL ~n-1
i isconditionally independent given %
= 6(xl,
...,The results of this paper
(Corollary 1)
could becompared
with thoseof
Hoeffding [10].
In that paper it isproved
that is obtainedfrom
simple
randomsampling
withoutreplacement
fromsimple
random
sampling
withreplacement
from the same finitepopulation,
thenfor any continuous and convex function the
inequality
holds. This result has been
extensively applied
inmaking
inferences aboutsimple
randomsampling
withoutreplacement by using simple
randomsampling
withreplacement.
Example
3. - In thisexample
weprovide
aconditionally independent
sequence to an auto
regressive
model. Letxo = 0
and for allwhere ‘ 1
and Ei is a sequence ofi. i. d.,
mean zerorandom variables.
Then, a conditionally independent
sequencetangent
to where foreach i, with {~i}
anindependent
copy
It follows from the
theory
ofdecoupling
thatconditionally independent
sequences share several
properties
with theoriginating
sequence. In par-ticular,
for any two tangentsequences {xi} and {yi}
ofnon-negative
orconditionally symmetric
real randomvariables,
there exists constants 0Ap, Bp
oo(depending
on ponly)
such thatfor all
p > 0 (see
Hitczenko[7]).
In Section 2 we introduce a series of new
decoupling inequalities.
Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré - Probabilités et Statistiques
2. MAIN
INEQUALITIES
The results to be introduced in this section are useful in
comparing
any two tangent sequences when one of them isconditionally independent.
From
Proposition 1,
ourcomparisons
serve as bounds for functionals ofarbitrary
real random variables. Thefollowing key
result wasdeveloped
with some
input
from M. Klass. Itsproof
involves the use ofmartingale theory
and theproperties
ofconditionally independent
sequences. For the sake ofclarity,
we state the result in twoparts
A and B.THEOREM 1 A. -
sequence of positive
variables.Then,
there exists a
03C3-field G
and a%-conditionally independent sequence {yi}, tangent to {xi}
suchthat,
THEOREM 1 B. - Let be a sequence
of positive
variables. Let G be aa-field. Then, for
any%-conditionally independent sequence {yi}, tangent
one
has,
[Recall
that % may be taken toequal
o({ Xi }).]
Proof. -
FromProposition 1,
it follows that for anysequence {xi}
one can find a
tangent sequence {yi} where {yi}
isconditionally indepen-
dent
given
a master 6-field G. LetFi be
the a-fieldgenerated by {x1,
...,xi, yl, ..., it is easy to see
that,
Also, since {yi}
istangent
to andconditionally independent given G,
Hence,
The above result is
sharp.
To seethis,
take x,x
to be i. i.d. withP (x =1 ) = P (x = o) =1 /2. Then,
one can see that for X2=X and y =xl,
y2 = x one has E x = E xix2 /E (Yl y2)2
= E xby independence.
This
example
is due to P. Hitczenko[ ].
In the
sequel,
most of the results could be stated in twoparts.
For conciseness we state them in the form of Theorem 1 A.Among
the corollaries to Theorem1,
we start with thefollowing exponential inequality comparing
the momentgenerating
function of anarbitrary
sequence to that of aconditionally independent
sequence.Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré - Probabilités et Statistiques
COROLLARY 1. - Let
{
be anarbitrary
sequenceof
random variables.Then,
there exists aa field ~
and a%-conditionally independent
sequence~ yi ~, tangent
suchthat, for
allfinite X,
Note that
if
they~s
are mean zero,the J . symbol
may be removed.COROLLARY 2. - Under the
assumptions of Corollary 1,
Tail
probability comparisons
of minimums arepossible
as shown next.COROLLARY 3. - be a sequence
of arbitrary
setsadapted
toan
increasing
sequenceof 6 fields, Then,
there exists a sequenceof
sets tangent moreover, is%-conditionally independent given
a03C3-field G
and thefollowing inequality holds,
By letting Di = ~ xi > t ~
andEi = ~ yi
>t ~ above,
weget
for all t.
The
previous
resultprovides
acomplement
to thefollowing
result fromKwapien
andWoyczynski [18)
and Hitczenko[7].
LEMMA 1. -
Let ~ un ~, ~
be tangent sequences,adapted
to an increas-ing
sequenceof 03C3-fields Fn. Then,
For convenience to the reader we prove it next.
Proof -
LetIn
fact,
one can useCorollary
2 toimprove
the above result when thesequence {ui}
isconditionally independent by using
theinequality
1-
(1 - x) 1 ~2 >_ x/2. Corollary
4gives
asymmetrization inequality
for mar-tingales
which is related to the one usedby
Arcones and Giné[ 1 ] .
COROLLARY 4. -
Let ~
be a mean-zeromartingale dfference
sequence.Then there exists a
a field ~
and a%-conditionally independent
sequence~ yi ~, tangent to ~
suchthat for
allfinite X,
for
asequence ~ of independent
variables withindependent
Thefollowing corollary provides
a newdecoupling inequality for
U-statistics and multilinearforms (see Example 1).
It can be obtained
by
arepeated application of Corollary
1.COROLLARY 5. - Let
{ zi ~, ~z2 ~, ... , ~ zk ~ independent copies of
asequence
of independent
random variables~z~ ~.
For k >_ 2 let i2,’.., ik bean array
of functions from Rk
into R. Thenfor
everyfinite
t,where
In Theorem 2 we show how the tail behaviour of the
conditionally independent
sequence(CI)
controls the tail behaviour of theoriginal
sequence whenever the CI sequence is sub-Gaussian.
THEOREM 2. - be an
arbitrary
sequenceof
random variables.Assume that
for
a6 field ~, ~ yi ~
is a%-conditionally independent
sequencetangent
Let Z be a normal random variable with mean zero and variance l.Then,
theinequality
for
some universal constant 0 A ~, and all x >0, implies
for
all x >_ 1.Annales de I’Institut Henri Poincaré - Probabilités et Statistiques
Proof -
It is well known(see
Chow and Teicher[3])
that the tailprobability
of the Gaussian random variable satisfies thefollowing,
n
for all
x >__ o. Furthermore,
the condition of the tail behaviourof L Yi
implies
that for allt > 0,
Hence,
Note. - To avoid unnecessary
repetitions,
in Section 3 we assume that all theobjects
inquestion
are both measurable andintegrable.
3. A GENERATING FUNCTION OF DECOUPLING
INEQUALITIES
In this section we show how to
exploit
theproperties
ofCorollary
1 toproduce
a wealth of new results. The idea consists ofintegrating
bothsides of
(2. 3) against non-negative
functions with totalLebesgue integral equal
1(densities)
followedby
a use of Fubini’stheorem
andJensen’s
inequality (taking
into account theconcavity
ofthe J . function)
to obtain new
inequalities comparing,
forexample,
theLaplace
transformn n
of L Xi
to a re-scaled version of theLaplace
transformof L
y;. A relatedi=1 i=1
approach
consists ofconsidering À
as a random variableindependent
ofboth ~ x~ ~ Conditioning
on these two sequences in(2 . 3)
andvarying
the distribution of À we obtain a multitude of new results. We havejust proved
thefollowing.
THEOREM 3. -
arbitrary
sequenceof
random variables.Then,
there exists aa field ~
and a%-conditionally independent
sequence{ y~ ~, tangent
such thatfor
all densities g(X),
THEOREM 4. - be an
arbitrary
sequenceof
random variables.Then,
there existsa 03C3-field G
and a%-conditionally independent
sequence{ yi ~, tangent
suchthat, for
all random variables tindependent of
we get,
The
following
resultprovides
aninteresting application
of Theorem 4.THEOREM 5. - be a sequence
of
random vectors inl2,
with~ ~
.~ ~ representing
the Euclidian norm inl2. Then,
there exists aa-field
anda
%-conditionally independent sequence {Yi} tangent for which,
Proof -
We prove the case ofRk
valued random variables. Thegeneral
case follows
by
an easylimiting argument.
Let tl, ...,tk
be an i. i. d.sequence of normal random variables with mean zero and variance one,
independent
From theassumptions,
...,xk)
k k
for real Since
X~
is tangent to is also tangent to~
j= i j= i
Therefore,
we canapply
Theorem 4 toget,
Annales de I’Institut Henri Poincaré - Probabilités et Statistiques
Conditioning { y~ ~
andtl,
..., weget
Proceeding
in the same fashionfor j = k -1,
..., 1 weget
which
gives
the desired result.Remark. -
Taking t
to be theproduct
ofindependent
random variablesin Theorem 4 would be
helpful
in obtained new resultsby integrating separately
each random variable.Several other
inequalities
can be obtainedby following
ourgeneral approach.
Example
4. -By letting
t have a Poisson distribution withparameter
~, > 0
in Theorem 4 weget,
for a sequence and itsdecoupled
counter-part (
yl~,
.Corollary
2 can be useful when the interest is on results for the absolute value of sums. Forexample, by letting t
have a uniform distribution on(a, b)
in a variation of Theorem 4 weget
for mean zero x’s.Example
5. - For a sequence of mean zero randomvariables {xi},
letbe its
decoupled counterpart. Then,
in the case the variables
satisfy
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This paper was
completed
while the author was on leave from ColumbiaUniversity.
The author wishes to thank thefollowing
individuals and institutions for theirsupport.
D. L.Burkholder,
P.Deheuvels,
J.Jacod,
M. J.
Klass,
H.Levene,
V. Perez-Abreu and E. Schuster. The "Centro deInvestigaciones
en Mathematicas" ofGuanajuato Mexico, Departments
of Mathematics of The
University
of Texas at ElPaso,
Case Western ReserveUniversity,
The Mathematical Sciences Research Institute of Berk-eley California,
TheDepartment
of Statistics of UCBerkeley
and theDepartment
of Mathematics of theUniversity
of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
The Laboratoire de Probabilites and Laboratoire de Statis-tique Theorique
etAppliquee
de Paris-VI. The author benefited from conversations with LouGordon,
P.Hitczenko,
J. Jacod and D. Nolan.Finally,
the refereeprovided helpful
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(Manuscript received May 27, 1992;
revised March 2, 1993.)