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TAIL ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE SUPREMUM OF A CLASS OF CHI-SQUARE PROCESSES

LANPENG JI, PENG LIU, AND STEPHAN ROBERT

Abstract: We analyze in this paper the supremum of a class of chi-square processes over non-compact intervals, which can be seen as a multivariate counterpart of the generalized weighted Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. The boundedness and the exact tail asymptotic behavior of the supremum are derived. As examples, the chi-square process generated from the Brownian bridge and the fractional Brownian motion are discussed.

Key Words: chi-square process; exact asymptotics; Brownian bridge AMS Classification: Primary 60G15; secondary 60G70

1. Introduction

Let X(t), t ≥ 0, be a Gaussian process with almost surely (a.s.) continuous sample paths. For a sequence of constants{bi}ni=1satisfying

1 =b1=· · ·=bk > bk+1≥ · · · ≥bn>0 we define the chi-square process as

χ2b(t) =

n

X

i=1

b2iXi2(t), t≥0, (1)

where Xi’s are independent copies ofX. The supremum of chi-square process appears naturally as limiting test statistic in various statistical models; see, e.g., [1, 2]. It also plays an important role in reliability applications in the engineering sciences, see [3, 4] and the references therein.

Of interest in applied probability and statistics is the tail asymptotics of P

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t)> u

, u→ ∞

for an intervalT ⊂R+, provided that

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t)<∞ a.s..

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Numerous contributions have been devoted to the study of the tail asymptotics of the supremum of chi-square processes over compact intervals T; see, e.g., [3, 5] and the references therein, where the technique used is to transform the supremum of chi-square process into the supremum of a special Gaussian random field. We refer to, e.g., [6, 7, 8, 9] for more discussions on the tail asymptotics (or excursion probability) of Gaussian and related fields.

In this paper, we are interested in the analysis of the supremum of a class of weighted locally stationary chi-square processes defined by

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t)

w2(t), withT = (0,1) or (0,1],

Date: July 1, 2019.

1

2019, vol. 154,article no. 108551, which should be cited to refer to this work.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2019.07.001

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where w(·) is some positive continuous function definable on the non-compact setT, and the generic process X is the locally stationary Gaussian process. More precisely, X(t), t ∈ T, is a centered Gaussian process with a.s.

continuous sample paths, unit variance and correlation functionr(·,·) satisfying

h→0lim

1−r(t, t+h) K2(|h|) =C(t) (3)

uniformly int∈I, for all the compact intervalIinT, whereK(·) is a positive regularly varying function at 0 with indexα/2∈(0,1], andC(·) is a positive continuous function satisfying

t→0limC(t) =∞ or lim

t→1C(t) =∞.

We refer to [10] for more discussions on such locally stationary Gaussian processes.

Our motivation for considering the supremum of the weighted locally stationary chi-square processes over the non- compact interval T = (0,1) or (0,1] is from its potential applications in statistics. For instance, in its univariate framework (withn= 1) the following generalized weighted Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic

Ww:= sup

t∈(0,1)

B(t)

w(t) , with B(t) = B(t)

pt(1−t), t∈(0,1),

has been discussed in the statistics literature, see, e.g., [11], whereBis the standard Brownian bridge with variance functionV ar(B(t)) =t(1−t), t∈[0,1] andwis a suitably chosen weight function such that

Ww<∞ a.s..

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We refer to [11, 12, 13, 14] for further discussions on the generalized weighted Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.

An interesting theoritical question is to find sufficient and necessary conditions onwso that the a.s. finiteness of (4) holds. It is shown in [11][Theorem 3.3, Theorem 4.2.3] (see also [12][Theorem 26.3]) that

Ww<∞ a.s. ⇔ Z 1

0

1

t(1−t)e−cw2(t)dt <∞for some c >0.

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One of the main results displayed in Theorem 3.1 shows necessary and sufficient conditions on the weight function wunder which it holds that

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t)

w2(t) <∞ a.s..

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This extends the result of (5). Furthermore, for certain w satisfying (6) we derive in Theorem 3.3 the exact asymptotics of

P

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

, u→ ∞.

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As an important application of Theorem 3.3, we obtain in Corollary 3.4 the tail asymptotics of the supremum of the chi-square process generated from the Brownian bridge. It is worth mentioning that this tail asymptotic result is new even for the univariate (i.e., n= 1) case. As a second example, the chi-square process generated by the fractional Brownian motion is discussed.

We expect that the derived results will have interesting applications in statistics or beyond.

Organization of the rest of the paper: In Section 2 we present a preliminary result which is a tailored version of Theorem A.1 in [10]. The main results are given in Section 3, followed by examples. All the proofs are displayed in Section 4.

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2. Preliminaries

This section concerns a result derived in [10], which is crucial for the derivation of (6). Based on the discussions therein, we shall considerR1/2

0 (C(s))1/αds=∞or R1

1/2(C(s))1/αds=∞. For this purpose, of crucial importance is the following function

f(t) = Z t

1/2

(C(s))1/αds, t∈(0,1).

We denote by←−

f(t), t∈(f(0), f(1)) the inverse function off(t), t∈(0,1). Further, for anyd >0, lets(1)j,d =←− f(jd), j ∈N∪ {0} iff(1) =∞, and let s(0)j,d =←−

f(−jd), j ∈N∪ {0} iff(0) =−∞. Denote ∆(1)j,d = [s(1)j−1,d, s(1)j,d], j ∈N and ∆(0)j,d= [s(0)j,d, s(0)j−1,d], j∈N, which give a partition of [1/2,1) in the casef(1) =∞and a partition of (0,1/2] in the casef(0) =−∞, respectively. Moreover, letq(u) =←−

K(u−1/2) be the inverse function ofK(·) at pointu−1/2 (assumed to exist asymptotically).

The following (scenario-dependent) restrictions on the positive continuous weight functionw2 and the correlation functionr(·,·) ofX play a crucial role. Let thereforeS∈ {0,1}.

Condition A(S): The weight functionw2 is monotone in a neighbourhood ofS and satisfies limt→Sw2(t) =∞.

Condition B(S): Suppose that there exists some constantd0>0 such that lim sup

j→∞

sup

t6=s∈∆(S)j,d

0

1−r(t, s)

K2(|f(t)−f(s)|)<∞, and whenα= 2 andk= 1, assume further

K2(|t|) =O(t2), t→0.

Condition C(S): Suppose that there exists some constantd0>0 such that lim inf

j→∞ inf

t6=s∈∆(S)j,d

0

1−r(t, s)

K2(|f(t)−f(s)|) >0.

Moreover, there existj0, l0∈N,M0, β >0,such that forj≥j0, l≥l0, sup

s∈∆(S)j+l,d

0,t∈∆(S)j,d

0

|r(s, t)|< M0l−β. (8)

For the subsequent discussions we present a tailored version of Theorem A.1 of [10], focusing on|f(S)|=∞. We define

Iw(S) =

Z S 1/2

(C(t))1/α(w(t))k−2

q(w2(t)) ew2 (t)2 dt .

Theorem 2.1. Let X(t), t∈(0,1), be a centered locally stationary Gaussian process with a.s. continuous sample paths, unit variance and correlation functionr(·,·)satisfying (3) andr(s, t)<1 fors6=t∈(0,1). Suppose further that, forS= 0 or1, we have |f(S)|=∞andA(S),B(S) ,C(S) are satisfied. Then

P

χ2b(t)≤w2(t) ultimately as t→S = 0, or 1 (9)

according to

Iw(S) =∞, or <∞.

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3. Main Results

In this section, we first give a criteria for (6) to hold and then display the exact asymptotics of (7) for different types ofwsuch that (6) is valid.

3.1. Analysis of(6). Denote byE(0) = (0,1/2] andE(1) = [1/2,1). Recall thatS∈ {0,1}. Under the conditions of Theorem 2.1, we have that ifIw(S)<∞, then

sup

t∈E(S)

χ2b(t)

w2(t)<∞ a.s., however, whenIw(S) =∞we only see that

sup

t∈E(S)

χ2b(t)

w2(t) ≥1 a.s..

Apparently, the above is not informative for the claim in (6). On the other hand, it is easily shown that sup

t∈E(S)

χ2b(t)

w2(t)<∞ a.s. ⇔ sup

t∈E(S)

|X(t)|

w(t) <∞ a.s.,

which means that, instead of the conditionIw(S) =∞in Theorem 2.1, a more accurate condition that is indepen- dent of n, k should be possible to ensure that (6) holds. Inspired by this fact, we provide below a sufficient and necessary condition for (6) to hold.

Define, for any constantc >0 and any positive continuous functionw Jc,w(S) =

Z S 1/2

(C(t))1/αe−cw2(t)dt .

Below is our first principal result, a criterion for (6), which is a generalization of (5).

Theorem 3.1. Under the conditions of Theorem 2.1 we have

sup

t∈E(S)

χ2b(t)

w2(t) <∞ a.s. ⇔ Jc,w(S)<∞ for some c >0.

Next we illustrate the criteria presented in Theorem 3.1 by an example of a weighted chi-square process with generic process being the normalized standard Brownian bridge, which further provides us with a clear comparison betweenIw(S) andJc,w(S).

Example 3.2. Let X(t) =B(t), t∈(0,1), and, withρ1>0, ρ2∈R, define wρ212(t) = 2ρ1ln ln

e2 t(1−t)

+ 2ρ2ln ln ln e2

t(1−t)

, t∈(0,1).

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First note that for the normalized standard Brownian bridge

h→0lim

1−E B(t)B(t+h)

|h| = 1

2t(1−t) (11)

holds uniformly int∈I, for any compact intervalI in(0,1). This means thatB is a locally stationary Gaussian process with

K(h) =p

|h|, α= 1, q(u) =u−1. Furthermore,

f(t) = Z t

1/2

1

2s(1−s)ds=1 2ln

t 1−t

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implying thatf(1) = −f(0) = ∞. Moreover, by the proof of Corollary 2.6 in[10] we have that conditions B(S) andC(S)are satisfied by B(t), t∈(0,1), andE B(t), B(s)

<1fors6=t, s, t∈(0,1). Thus, all the conditions of Theorem 3.1 are fulfilled.

Next, on one hand, we have 1

t(1−t)(wρ12(t))ke

w2 ρ12(t)

2 ∼ Q

t(1−t) ln

1 t(1−t)

ρ1 ln ln

e2 t(1−t)

ρ2−k/2

ast→0or t→1, withQsome positive constant. Thus, elementary calculations show that Iw(0) =Iw(1) =

Z 1 1/2

(wρ12(t))k t(1−t) e

w2 ρ12(t)

2 dt <∞ holds if and only if

ρ1>1, or ρ1= 1 andρ2>1 +k/2.

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On the other hand, we can show that the functionswρ12(t) satisfying that∃c >0 such thatJc,w(S)<∞are not restricted to the ones satisfying (12). In fact, since for any ρ1>0 there exists some csuch that ρ1> 2c1, we have that

Jc,w(0) =Jc,w(1) = Z 1

1/2

1

t(1−t)e−cw2ρ12(t)dt

≤ Z 1

1/2

1 t(1−t)

ln

1 t(1−t)

2cρ1 ln ln

e2 t(1−t)

2cρ2dt <∞ holds for any ρ2∈R. Thus, we conclude from Theorem 3.1 that

sup

t∈(0,1)

χ2b(t) wρ2

12(t)<∞ a.s.

holds for any ρ1>0 andρ2∈R.

3.2. Asymptotics of (7). For those w such that (6) holds, of interest is the exact tail asymptotic behavior of supt∈T wχ2b2(t)(t). Actually, as we have seen, the behavior ofwaround 0 and 1 plays a crucial role for the finiteness in (6). However, this does not apply to the tail asymptotics of supt∈T wχ2b2(t)(t). It turns out that only the probability mass in the neighborhood of minimizer ofw contribute to the tail asymptotics. As discussed in [15], the weight function is introduced when constructing the Goodness-of-Fit test which is intended to emphasize a specific region of the domain. With these motivations, for the tail asymptotics we shall consider the following two types ofw:

Assumption F1: The functionwattains its minimum at finite distinct inner points {ti}mi=1 ofT, and w(ti+t) =w(ti) +ai|ti|βi(1 +o(1)), t→ti

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holds for some positive constantsai, βi>0, i= 1,2, . . . , m.

Assumption F2: The functionwattains its minimum at all points on disjoint intervals [ci, di]⊆ T,i= 1,2, . . . , m (i.e.,wis a constant on these intervals).

Under assumptionF1, we need additional conditions which are stated below. Recall q(u) =←−

K(u−1/2). It follows that q(u) is a regularly varying function at infinity with index −1/α which can be further expressed as q(u) = u−1/αL(u−1/2), withL(·) a slowly varying function at 0. Denote furtherβ= max1≤i≤mβi. According to the values ofL(u−1/2) asu→ ∞, we consider the following three scenarios:

C1(β): β > α, orβ=αand limu→∞L(u−1/2) = 0;

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C2(β): β=αand limu→∞L(u−1/2) =L ∈(0,∞);

C3(β): β < α, orβ=αand limu→∞L(u−1/2) =∞.

Before displaying our results, we introduce two important constants. One is thePickands constantdefined by H2H = lim

S→∞

1

SE exp

sup

t∈[0,S]

2BH(t)−t2H! ,

withBH(t), t∈R, a standard fractional Brownian motion (fBm) defined on Rwith Hurst indexH ∈(0,1]. And the other one is thePiterbarg constantdefined by

P2Hd = lim

λ→∞E exp sup

t∈[−λ,λ]

2BH(t)−(1 +d)|t|2H

!!

, d >0.

We refer to [16] for the properties and generalizations of the Pickands-Piterbarg type constants. In what follows, αwill play a similar role as 2H. Moreover, We shall use the standard notation for asymptotic equivalence of two functions f andh. Specifically, we writef(x)∼h(x), if limx→af(x)/h(x) = 1 (a∈R∪ {∞}), and further, write f(x) =o(h(x)), if limx→af(x)/h(x) = 0.

LetK={1≤i≤m:βi=β} andKc={1≤i≤m:βi< β}. Below is our second principal result.

Theorem 3.3. Let χw2b2(t)(t), t∈ T, be the weighted locally stationary chi-square process considered in Theorem 2.1 such that (6)holds. We have:

(i). IfF1 is satisfied, then, asu→ ∞, P

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t) w2(t)> u

n

Y

i=k+1

(1−b2i)−1/2

!

M(u) Υk(w2(t1)u), where (with the convention Qq

i=p= 1 ifq < p) Υk(u) :=P

χ2k,1(0)> u =2(2−k)/2

Γ(k/2) uk/2−1exp

−u 2

, u >0, (14)

and

M(u) =





 2

P

i∈Ka−1/βi (C(ti))1/α

(w(t1))2/α−1/βΓ(1/β+ 1)Hα(q(u))−1u−1/β, forC1(β), P

i∈KPαai(w(t1)C(ti))−1Lα+]Kc, forC2(β),

m, forC3(β).

(ii). IfF2 is satisfied, then, as u→ ∞,

P

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

n

Y

i=k+1

1−b2i−1/2

!

m

X

j=1

Z dj cj

(C(t))1/αdt

Hα (q(w2(c1)u))−1Υk(w2(c1)u).

We conclude this section with two applications of Theorem 3.3. Full proofs of Corollaries 3.4 and 3.5 can be found in [17].

Corollary 3.4. Let w2χ2b(t)

ρ12(t), t ∈ (0,1), with ρ1 > 0 and ρ2 ∈ R, be the weighted locally stationary chi-square process discussed in Example 3.2. We have, asu→ ∞, ifρ2≥ −ρ1ln ln(4e2), then

P (

sup

t∈(0,1)

χ2b(t) w2ρ

12(t) > u )

n

Y

i=k+1

(1−b2i)−1/2

!

M(u)Υk(2A1u),

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whereA11ln ln 4e2

2ln ln ln 4e2 and

M(u) =



 2A1

qπln(4e2) ln ln(4e2)

ρ1ln ln(4e2)+ρ2 u1/2, forρ2>−ρ1ln ln(4e2), 2Γ(1/4)A1

ln ln(4e2)(ln(4e2))2

1

1/4

u3/4, forρ2=−ρ1ln ln(4e2), and ifρ2<−ρ1ln ln(4e2), then

P (

sup

t∈(0,1)

χ2b(t) w2ρ

12(t) > u )

∼2A2 n

Y

i=k+1

(1−b2i)−1/2

!

ρ−11 Qp

−2πρ2u1/2Υk(2A2u), whereA22(ln(−ρ2)−ln(ρ1)−1) and

Q= 1

2t1−1ln

e2 t1(1−t1)

, t1= 1/2 + q

1/4−e2−e−ρ21.

Next, we considerBH(t), t≥0,to be the standard fBm with Hurst indexH∈(0,1) and covariance function Cov(BH(s), BH(t)) = 1

2 |s|2H+|t|2H− |s−t|2H

, s, t≥0.

Denote byBH(t) =BH(t)/tH, t∈(0,1] the normalized standard fBm defined on (0,1]. Further, for anyρ >0 and ε∈(0,1), we define

w2ρ,ε(t) =

( ρln ln e2/t

, fort∈(0, ε), ρln ln e2

, fort∈[ε,1].

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We have the following result.

Corollary 3.5. Let wχ22b(t)

ρ,ε(t), t∈ (0,1], be a weighted chi-square process with generic process BH(t), t ∈ (0,1] and w2ρ,ε given in (15). Then, we have, asu→ ∞,

P (

sup

t∈(0,1)

χ2b(t) wρ,ε2 (t)> u

)

n

Y

i=k+1

(1−b2i)−1/2

!

(−ln(ε)) ln ln e2/ε ρ/22H1

×H2Hu2H1 Υk(ρln ln e2/ε u).

4. Proofs

This section is devoted to the proof of all the results presented in Section 3.

Proof of Theorem 3.1: Note thattk/2−1(q(t))−1 is a positive regularly varying function at ∞with index κ= k/2−1 + 1/α≥0. Thus, by Potter bound (e.g., [18])

c1tκ−1≤tk/2−1(q(t))−1≤c2tκ+1, t≥c3,

holds for some constantsc1, c2, c3>0 , which, together with the fact thatw2(t)→ ∞as t→S, leads to Q1e−w2(t)≤(w(t))k−2

q(w2(t)) ew2 (t)2 ≤Q2ew2 (t)3 (16)

for alltapproachingS,with some positive constantsQ1, Q2.Therefore, ifJc,w(S)<∞holds for somec >0, then, by (16),

I3cw(S)<∞.

This together with ii) of Theorem 2.1 yields that lim sup

t→S

χ2b(t)

w2(t) ≤3c a.s.

(8)

showing that

sup

t∈E(S)

χ2b(t)

w2(t) <∞ a.s.

On the other hand, ifJc,w(S) =∞for allc >0, then, by (16), Icw(S) =∞. Thus, by iii) of Theorem 2.1 lim sup

t→S

χ2b(t)

w2(t) ≥c a.s.

holds for allc >0, implying that

sup

t∈E(S)

χ2b(t)

w2(t) =∞ a.s.

This completes the proof.

We present next two lemmas which will play key roles in the proof of Theorem 3.3; see [17] for proofs. Denote belowS ⊆Rto be any fixed interval.

Lemma 4.1. Let χ2b(t), t ∈ S, be a chi-square process with generic centered Gaussian process X which has a.s.

continuous sample paths and variance function denoted byσ2X(t). If sup

t∈S

X(t)<∞ a.s.,

then there exists some positive constantQsuch that for all u > Q2 we have P

sup

t∈S

χ2b(t)> u

≤exp

− (√ u−Q)2 2 supt∈Sσ2X(t)

. (17)

Lemma 4.2. Letχ2b(t), t∈ S,be a chi-square process with the generic centered locally stationary Gaussian process X which has a.s. continuous sample paths. If further the correlation function ofX satisfies

r(s, t)<1 for any s6=t∈ S, (18)

then, for any compact intervalsS1,S2⊂ S such that S1∩ S2=∅ we have P

sup

t∈S1

χ2b(t)> u, sup

t∈S2

χ2b(t)> u

≤exp

−(2√

u−Q)2 2(2 + 2η)

. for allu > Q2, with some constantQ >0 andη∈(0,1).

Proof of Theorem3.3: Without loss of generality, we show the proof only for the case where T = (0,1).

(i). Letρ >0 be a sufficiently small constant such that

[ti−ρ, ti+ρ]∩[tj−ρ, tj+ρ] =∅, for alli6=j.

Further, denoteTρ=T \Sm

i=1[ti−ρ, ti+ρ]. It follows from the Bonferroni inequality (e.g., [19]) that

m

X

i=1

pi(u) +P (

sup

t∈Tρ

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

≥P

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

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m

X

i=1

pi(u)− X

1≤i<j≤m

P (

sup

t∈[ti−ρ,ti+ρ]

χ2b(t)

w2(t) > u, sup

t∈[tj−ρ,tj+ρ]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

) , where

pi(u) =P (

sup

t∈[ti−ρ,ti+ρ]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

) .

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We first focus on the asymptotics ofpi(u) asu→ ∞. Denote Y(t) = w(t1)

w(t)X(t), t∈ T. We have

pi(u) =P (

sup

t∈[ti−ρ,ti+ρ]

n

X

l=1

b2lYl2(t)> w2(t1)u )

, 1≤i≤m,

where {Yl}ni=1 is a sequence of independent copies of Gaussian process Y. It can be shown that, by F1, for any i= 1,2,· · · , m,

σY(t) =p

E((Y(t))2) =w(t1)

w(t), t∈[ti−ρ, ti+ρ], attains its maximum which is equal to 1 at the unique pointti, and further

σY(ti+t) = 1− ai

w(t1)|t|βi(1 +o(1)), t→0.

Moreover, by (3)

1−Corr(Y(ti+t), Y(ti+s)) =C(ti)K2(|t−s|)(1 +o(1)), t→0.

Consequently, it follows from [4][Theorem 5.2] that, asu→ ∞, pi(u)∼

n

Y

l=k+1

(1−b2l)−1/2

!

Mii, u) Υk(w2(t1)u), (20)

where Υk(·) is given in (14) and

Mii, u) =





2a−1/βi i(w(t1))2/α−1/βi(C(ti))1/αΓ(1/βi+ 1)Hα(q(u))−1u−1/βi, forC1(βi), Pαai(w(t1)C(ti))−1Lα forC2(βi),

1, forC3(βi).

In the sequel, we discuss the three scenariosC1(β), C2(β), C3(β)one-by one.

C1(β). Using the fact that β= maxmi=1βi, we have that

Mjj, u) =o(Mii, u)), u→ ∞ for anyi∈K andj∈Kc. This implies that

m

X

i=1

pi(u)∼X

i∈K

pi(u)∼

n

Y

l=k+1

(1−b2l)−1/2

!

M(u) Υk(w2(t1)u), (21)

whereM(·) is given in (15). On the other hand, it follows directly from Lemma 4.1 that P

( sup

t∈Tρ

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

≤exp

−inft∈Tρw2(t)(√

u−Q)2 2

holds for allu > Q2, withQsome positive constant. Since further, byF1,

t∈Tinfρw2(t)> w2(t1), we have that

P (

sup

t∈Tρ

χ2b(t) w2(t)> u

)

=o M(u) Υk(w2(t1)u)

, u→ ∞.

(22)

(10)

Moreover, since for anyi6=j P

( sup

t∈[ti−ρ,ti+ρ]

χ2b(t)

w2(t) > u, sup

t∈[tj−ρ,tj+ρ]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

≤P (

sup

t∈[ti−ρ,ti+ρ]

χ2b(t)> w2(t1)u, sup

t∈[tj−ρ,tj+ρ]

χ2b(t)> w2(t1)u )

. we have from Lemma 4.2 that, for allularge,

P (

sup

t∈[ti−ρ,ti+ρ]

χ2b(t)

w2(t) > u, sup

t∈[tj−ρ,tj+ρ]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

≤exp

−(2w(t1)√

u−Qi,j)2 2(2 + 2η)

, 1≤i < j≤m, withQi,j’s some positive constants andη∈(0,1). Therefore, asu→ ∞,

X

1≤i<j≤m

P (

sup

t∈[ti−ρ,ti+ρ]

χ2b(t)

w2(t) > u, sup

t∈[tj−ρ,tj+ρ]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

=o M(u) Υk(w2(t1)u) . (23)

Combining (21)–(23) with (19) we establish the claim ofC1(β).

C2(β). In this case, we have that (20) holds with

Mii, u) =

( Pαai(w(t1)C(ti))−1Lα, i∈K

1, i∈Kc.

Consequently,

m

X

i=1

pi(u)∼

n

Y

l=k+1

(1−b2l)−1/2

! X

i∈K

Pαai(w(t1)C(ti))−1Lα+]Kc

!

Υk(w2(t1)u).

Note that (22) and (23) still hold. Similarly as the caseC1(β), we establish the claim ofC2(β).

C3(β). In this case, we have that (20) holds with

Mii, u) = 1, 1≤i≤m.

Consequently,

m

X

i=1

pi(u)∼m

n

Y

l=k+1

(1−b2l)−1/2

!

Υk(w2(t1)u).

Similarly as before, the claim ofC3(β)follows.

(ii). ByF2 we have for any sufficiently smallε >0 it holds that

t∈Tinfε

w(t)> w(c1), withTε=T \

m

[

i=1

[ci−ε, di+ε].

Similarly to (19) we have

m

X

i=1

P (

sup

t∈[ci−,di+]

χ2b(t) w2(t)> u

) +P

sup

t∈Tε

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

≥P

sup

t∈T

χ2b(t) w2(t)> u

(24)

m

X

i=1

P (

sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

− X

1≤i<j≤m

P (

sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t)

w2(t) > u, sup

t∈[cj,dj]

χ2b(t) w2(t)> u

) .

(11)

Next, we have fromF2 that for 1≤i≤m P

( sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

= P

( sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t)> w2(c1)u )

,

P (

sup

t∈[ci−ε,di+ε]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

≤ P (

sup

t∈[ci−ε,di+ε]

χ2b(t)> w2(c1)u )

.

It is noted that the result in Theorem 2.1 of [10] also holds when g(t) = 0. Thus, it follows from that result, as u→ ∞,

P (

sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t)> w2(c1)u )

n

Y

j=k+1

1−b2j−1/2

Hα

Z di ci

(C(t))1/αdt(q(w2(c1)u))−1Υk(w2(c1)u),

P (

sup

t∈[ci−ε,di+ε]

χ2b(t)> w2(c1)u )

n

Y

j=k+1

1−b2j−1/2

Hα

Z di ci−ε

(C(t))1/αdt(q(w2(c1)u))−1Υk(w2(c1)u).

Moreover, since

P (

sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t)

w2(t) > u, sup

t∈[cj,dj]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

=P (

sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t)> w2(c1)u, sup

t∈[cj,dj]

χ2b(t)> w2(c1)u )

, we have from Lemma 4.2 that, for allularge,

P (

sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t)

w2(t) > u, sup

t∈[cj,dj]

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

)

≤exp

−(2w(c1)√

u−Qi,j)2 2(2 + 2η)

, 1≤i < j≤m, withQi,j’s some positive constants andη∈(0,1). This implies that

X

1≤i<j≤m

P (

sup

t∈[ci,di]

χ2b(t)

w2(t) > u, sup

t∈[cj,dj]

χ2b(t) w2(t)> u

)

=o (q(w2(c1)u))−1Υk(w2(c1)u)

, u→ ∞.

Moreover, Lemma 4.1 gives that P

sup

t∈Tε

χ2b(t) w2(t) > u

=o (q(w2(c1)u))−1Υk(w2(c1)u)

, u→ ∞.

Consequently, by lettingε→0 we conclude that the claim in (ii) is established. This completes the proof.

Acknowledgement: P. Liu was partially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation Grant 200021- 166274.

References

[1] J. Albin and D. Jaruˇskov´a, “On a test statistic for linear trend,”Extremes, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 247–258 (2004), 2003.

[2] D. Jaruˇskov´a and V. Piterbarg, “Log-likelihood ratio test for detecting transient change,”Statist. Probab. Lett., vol. 81, no. 5, pp. 552–559, 2011.

[3] G. Lindgren, “Slepian models forχ2-processes with dependent components with application to envelope upcrossings,”J. Appl.

Probab., vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 36–49, 1989.

[4] P. Liu and L. Ji, “Extremes of chi-square processes with trend,”Probab. Math. Statist., vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 1–20, 2016.

[5] D. Konstantinides, V. Piterbarg, and S. Stamatovic, “Gnedenko-type limit theorems for cyclostationaryχ2-processes,”Lithuanian Mathematical Journal, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 157–167, 2004.

[6] R. Adler and J. Taylor,Random fields and geometry. Springer Monographs in Mathematics, New York: Springer, 2007.

(12)

[7] V. Piterbarg, Asymptotic methods in the theory of Gaussian processes and fields, vol. 148 of Translations of Mathematical Monographs. Providence, RI: American Mathematical Society, 1996. Translated from the Russian by V.V. Piterbarg, revised by the author.

[8] D. Cheng and Y. Xiao, “Excursion probability of Gaussian random fields on sphere,”Bermoulli, vol. 22, pp. 1113–1130, 2016.

[9] D. Cheng and Y. Xiao, “The mean Euler characteristic and excursion probability of Gaussian random fields with stationary increments,”Ann. Appl. A Probab., vol. 26, pp. 722–759, 2016.

[10] P. Liu and L. Ji, “Extremes of locally stationary chi-square processes with trend,” Stochastic Process. Appl., vol. 127, no. 2, pp. 497–525, 2017.

[11] M. Cs¨org¨o, S. Cs¨org¨o, L. Horv´ath, and D. M. Mason, “Weighted empirical and quantile processes,”Annals of Probability, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 31–85, 1986.

[12] A. DasGupta,Asymptotic Theory of Statistics and Probability. Springer Texts in Statistics, Springer-Verlag New York, 2008.

[13] V. Piterbarg and V. Taran, “Exact asymptotics for large deviation probabilities of normalized Brownian bridge with applications to empirical processes,”Computers Math. Applic., vol. 22, no. 7, pp. 85–91, 1991.

[14] L. D¨umbgen, P. Kolesnyk, and R. A. Wilke, “Bi-log-concave distribution functions,”Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, vol. 184, pp. 1–17, 2017.

[15] R. Chicheportiche and J.-P. Bouchaud, “Weighted Kolmogorov-Smirnov test: Accounting for the tails,”Phys. Rev. E, vol. 86, pp. 041–115, 2012.

[16] L. Bai, K. D¸ebicki, E. Hashorva, and L. Luo, “On generalised Piterbarg constants,” Methodol Comput Appl Probab, vol. 20, pp. 137–164, 2018.

[17] L. Ji, P. Liu, and S. Robert, “Tail asymptotic behavior of the supremum of a class of chi-squre processes: with supplements,”

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.02486v2.pdf, 2019.

[18] N. Bingham, C. Goldie, and J. Teugels,Regular variation, vol. 27 ofEncyclopedia of Mathematics and its Applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1989.

[19] Z. Michina, “Remarks on Pickands theorem,”Probability and Mathematical Statistics, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 373–393, 2017.

Lanpeng Ji, School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom E-mail address:l.ji@leeds.ac.uk

Peng Liu, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Canada E-mail address:peng.liu1@uwaterloo.ca

Stephan Robert, Institute for Information and Communication Technologies, School of Business and Engineering Vaud (HEIG-VD), University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland, Switzerland

E-mail address:Stephan.Robert@heig-vd.ch

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