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Sapna Nundloll, Ludovic Mailleret, Frédéric Grognard
To cite this version:
Sapna Nundloll, Ludovic Mailleret, Frédéric Grognard. The Effects of Partial Crop Harvest on
Bio-logical Pest Control. [Research Report] RR-6284, INRIA. 2007, pp.27. �inria-00171093v2�
inria-00171093, version 2 - 12 Sep 2007
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Thème BIO
The Effects of Partial Crop Harvest on Biological
Pest Control
Sapna Nundloll — Ludovic Mailleret — Frédéric Grognard
N° 6284
Sapna Nundloll
∗
,Ludovi Mailleret†
, Frédéri Grognard∗
ThèmeBIOSystèmesbiologiques ProjetsComore
Rapportdere her he n°6284Septembre200727pages
Abstra t: Inthispaper,theee ts ofperiodi partial harvestingofa ontinuouslygrown rop on augmentative biologi al ontrol are analyzed. Partial harvesting an remove a proportionofbothpestsandbiologi al ontrolagents,soitsinuen eonthe ontrole ien y annotbeapriorinegle ted. Animpulsivemodel onsistingofageneralpredator-preymodel in ode, augmentedbyadis rete omponent to depi treleasesof biologi al ontrol agents and theperiodi partial harvesting is used. Theperiods aretaken asinteger multiples of ea h other. A stability ondition forpest eradi ationisexpressed astheminimal valueof thebudgetperunit timetospendonpredators. We onsiderthepartialharvestingperiod tobexedbyboththeplant'sphysiologyandmarket for esso that theonlymanipulated variable is the releaseperiod. It is shown that varying the releaseperiod with respe t to theharvestperiodinuen estheminimalbudgetvaluewhentheformeris arriedoutmore oftenthanthelatterandhasnoee twhenreleasestakepla easoftenasorlessfrequently thanthepartial harvests.
Key-words: Predator-preydynami s; partial harvest; inundativebiologi al ontrol; im-pulsive ontrol;stability;minimal budget
∗
INRIA-COMORE,2004routedesLu ioles,BP93,F-06902SophiaAntipolisCedex,Fran e.
†
Résumé : Ce do ument montre les eets de la ré olte partielle périodique sur la lutte biologique inondative dans le as de la prote tion d'une plantation à roissan e ontinue. Commelaré oltepartielleestsus eptibledepréleverunepartiedesravageursainsiquedes auxiliairesdeluttebiologique,onnepeutignorersoninuen esursone a ité.
Le modèle étudié onsiste en un modèle proie-prédateur en EDO lassique dé rivant l'intera tionbiologiqueentrelesdeuxpopulations,auquels'ajouteunepartiedis rèterepr±entant les phénomènes, intrinsquement dis rets, liés à la ré olte et à la lutte biologique. Les paramètresde ré oltepartielle sontsupposés xésparlaphysiologiede laplante ainsique lademandeé onomique; lapériodede lâ herdesauxiliaires et lebudgetinvesti sontdon lesseulsparamêtresmodiablesdusystème. L'exigen edestabilitédel'étatdusystèmeoù lesravageurssontabsentsnous donne unbudgetminimal d'auxiliairesàutiliser parunité detempsqui peutêtrefon tiondelapériodedeslâ hers. Nousdémontronsquelapériode deslâ hersinuesurlebudgetminimal quandellealieu plussouventquelaré olte,mais n'aau uneetquandellealieumoinsfréquemment.
Mots- lés : Dynamiques proie-prédateur; ré olte partielle; lutte biologique inondative; ommandeimpulsive;stabilité;budgetminimal
1 Introdu tion
Biologi al ontrolistheredu tionofpestpopulationstoharmlesslevelsthroughtherelease oftheirnaturalenemies. Thelatter anin ludebothparasiti andpredatoryspe ies,whi h are deployed at sele ted lo ationsthroughout the rop and, whereverpossible, to spe i parts ofindividual plantswhere thepest is likelyto atta k. Su essful ontrol proje tsin the eld haveinvolved the use of only one predatoryspe ies su h asin [3, 9℄, as well as more omplexbiodiverses hemessu hasthosesuggestedby[14,8,2,17℄andthereferen es therein. The target pest spe ies and the setting, i.e. where the rop is grown, usually determines the type of ontrol required, namely whether pest eradi ation is ne essary or not. Foranexhaustivelistofdenitions andappli ations,wereferthereaderto[5,16℄.
Inthis report, we onsider theprote tionof ontinuously grown ropswhi h havezero toleran etopestinvasions. Therearetwoaspe tsinthistypeof ulture.
Firstly, inundative ontrol whi h is aprophyla ti method of pest ontrol yields the most satisfatory results when implemented (see [7, 20, 6℄ for theoreti al/simulatory studies and [4, 8, 9, 1℄ for real life experiments). A al ulated numberof predators are repeatedly inje ted into the e osystem, independently of the dete tion of pest inse tsinthegreenhouse. Su hpopulationsarenotallowedtothriveand onsistonly of individuals whose main sour e of subsisten e is thepest inse t, in the absen e of whi h,they(the predatorinse ts) rapidlydieout. Thefrequen yof thereleasesand thenumberofpredatorsinje tedea htimeensuresthataminimal'sentry'population ispresenttoredu e thedamage ausedbythepestsontheiratta k.
Se ondly, overtheir growingperiod, these rops are partially harvested onaregular basis. Sin e itis known that harvestsare likelyto inuen e, even ounterintuitively, predator-preydynami s[18,15℄,ithastobetakenintoa ountintheformulationof theproblem.
We onsiderthesimplestditrophi asewherebyonepredatoryspe iesisusedto eradi- ateapestpopulation. Ourmodel onsistsofODEsaugmentedbyadis rete omponentto in orporate theee t ofpartial harvestand releases thatby theirverynature aredis rete phenomena. Thisisa lassi alformulationthatisusedwidelyintheliteraturewhere impul-sivedynami sarestudied. Examplesare[12, 15℄in the ontextofagri ulturale osystems, [19℄inepidemiology,[10℄inpulsed hemotherapyto itesome. Fewpapersintheliterature onimpulsive rop prote tionhoweverseemto fo us onstability ofthepest-free state: yet thisisofpra ti alimportan eespe iallyforhighvalued rop ultures.
Inourwork,weattemptto giveane onomi dimensionto thesolutionofourproblem by dening the releases in terms of the number of predators to invest in over a budget period. Using Floquet Theory as presented by [19℄, we are able to express the stability onditionastheminimalnumberofpredatorsperbudgetperiodrequiredtodrivethepests to zeroat a givenreleasefrequen y. [13℄ showedhowthis numbervaried withthe release period hosen. The worst ase s enarioof pest atta k o urring at an intermediate stage betweentwopredator releaseswas onsidered and the optimalreleasepoli y whi hwould
guaranteethemoste ientprote tionagainstsurgesinthepestpopulationwas al ulated. Inparti ular,itisshownthatthehigherthefrequen iesofpredatorrelease,thesmallerthe time intervaloverwhi h thepest populationwasabove athreshold ommonly referredto astheE onomi InjuryLevel[21℄-andhen ethelowerthedamagein urredbythe rops. Inlinewiththeworkof[13℄,weinvestigatehowthefrequen yofreleasesistobevaried with respe t to the (xed) harvesting frequen y to minimise the minimal budget value. We onsider the harvest period as a referen e sin e it is set by market onstraints. The ee t of partial harvesting is similar to that of pesti ide usage proposed by [12℄ in their IntegratedPest Management(IPM)strategy. Ourmodel departsfrom thelatter'sin three ways. Firstly, boththe predatorand pest populations are subje ted to partial harvesting when this o urs. Se ondly, hypotheses made on the fun tions governing the population hangesare weakand anen ompass mostofthedensity-dependentfun tions proposed in the literature. Finally, oneperiod is taken as the integermultiple of other. This feature is keyin solvingforthe stability onditionto obtainthe minimal budgetvalue. The ase wherethefrequen iesarenotthesameisin luded.
Itisshownthatforagivenharvestperiod,whenreleasestakepla elessoftenorasoften as harvests, the minimal budget is at a al ulated value whi h is independent of release period. However,when releases takepla e moreoften than harvests, theminimal budget required always ex eeds this value. This result runs ounter with that obtained by [13℄: mergingthetwoseemstoindi atethattheharvestfrequen yisathresholdthatshouldnot beex eededwhenreleasingpredatorsfore ientbiologi al ontrol.
In the rst se tion of this arti le, the system model is presented. The mathemati al analysis of the system's stability and the formulation of the stability ondition in terms of the minimal budget are presented in the next se tion. A brief interpretation of the mathemati alresultsfollows. Finally,we on ludewithadis ussionontheirimpli ations.
2 Model des ription
Themodelwepresent onsistsofa ontinuousparttodepi tthepredator-preyintera tion. We onsider the aseat theonsetof pest invasionwhere the rop -thepest food supply -isinabundan e. Be auseofthis, atthisstage,itissu ienttomodel onlythepest
x
and predatory
spe ies.
˙x
=
f
(x) − g(x)y
˙y
=
h(x)y − dy
x(nT
h
+
)
=
(1 − αx)x(nTh)
∀n ∈ N
y(nT
h
+
)
=
(1 − αy)y(nTh) + δ (nTh
modTr) µTr
∀n ∈ N
y(mT
+
r
) =
(1 − δ (mTr
modTh) αy)y(mTr) + µTr
∀m ∈ N
(1)
The rst twoequations govern the intrinsi predator-prey intera tion o urring in the system. The three ones depi t the impulsive phenomena that we onsider with harvest takingpla eat
nTh
andreleasesatmTr
.Inthe ontinuouspart,thefun tionsdis ussedarenotspe iedsotheyarerepresentative ofasmanysystemsas possible. Onlythefollowinghypothesesare made.
Hypothesis 1 Let
f
(x)
,g(x)
andh(x)
belo ally Lips hitz ontinuousinR
+
su h that f
(0) = 0
g(0) = 0
,g
′
(0) > 0
andg(x) > 0 ∀x > 0
h(0) = 0
andh(x) > 0 ∀x > 0
f (x)
g(x)
andg(x)
x
areupper boundedforx
≥ 0
f
(x)
isthegrowthvelo ityorfeedinginputofthepests. Itrepresentsthegrowthfun tion ofthepestspe iesandinourmodel,italsoen ompassesanynon-predatorylossesofthepest population(e.g. logisti growth). We assumethat the predator population is neverlarge enoughforintra-predatorintera tiontotakepla esothefun tionalandnumeri alresponses anbeexpressedsolelyintermsofthepreynumbers,i.e. asg(x)
andh(x)
respe tively.Weassumethatpestgrowthrate,thefun tionalandnumeri alresponsesareallnilwhen thee osystemispest-free.
Thefun tional responseisin reasingfor smallpest populationlevels. Wealso onsider that, in the presen e of pests, predation always takespla e with a negativeimpa t on
x
(g(x) > 0
)and apositiveimpa tony
(h(x) > 0
). Note that onditions anbeindu edas mu h by thepredator inse t foragingabilities per se asthey anbefa ilitated by pla ing the predator inse ts at known lo ations on the plant where the pests are most likely to atta k. In lassi al density dependent models,g(x)
is bounded orlinear, so thatg(x)
x
isalways bounded. The boundedness of
f (x)
g(x)
means that there is no value ofx
where the pest growthf
(x)
overwhelmingly dominates the predationg(x)
, whi h would render the biologi al ontrol impossible.Partial rop harvestsand predatorreleases o urrespe tivelyevery
Th
andTr
.αx
andαy
represent the respe tive proportions of the prey and predator populations ae ted at ea hharvest. Theseparametersareallowedbedierentsin einreality,itisverylikelythat ea hspe iestendstoo upydierentpartsoftheplant. Wealsoassumethattheinse tsare uniformly distributed throughout our plantation so that the ee t of partial harvesting is dire tly orrelatedwiththenumberofplantsharvested. Weassumelinearmaturationofthe ropsotheproportionof ropsharvestedea htimeandhen einse tsremovedis onsidered asxed. Theδ
-fun tionisdened thus toidentify instantsof simultaneouspartial harvest andpredatorrelease.δ(θ) =
1
ifθ
= 0
0
otherwise(2) Finally, we presume that we have axed budget of predatorsover a designated time period that is distributed evenlyamong thereleases that are arried out.
µ
refersto the totalnumberofpredatorspur hasedpertimeunit. ExpressingTr
inthesameunits asthe budgetperiodgivesthe ontrolµTr
asthenumberofpredatorsreleasedeveryTr
.3 Mathemati al analysis
In our analysis, we restri t ourselvesto the ase where either one of the periods (release orpartial harvests) is theintegermultiple ofthe other. Note howeverthat the model (1) formalismismoregeneral. Westudythesystemintheabsen eofpests,i.e. when
x
= 0
. In additionofbeinginvariant,itisthetargetstateofoursystem. Thestabilityofthesystem aroundthat state istherefore of interest. Our analysis takespla e separatelyfor the ase whenreleasesaremorefrequentthanharvests,andwhentheyarelessfrequent.Weshowthatintheabsen eofpestsattheinitialtime,thepredatorpopulation onverges towardsapositiveperiodi solution. Wethendemonstratethat whenpreysarepresentat theinitialtime, onvergen eofthepredatorpopulationalsotakespla etothatsameperiodi solution,whilethepreysgoextin tprovidedsome onditionontheparametersisveried. 3.1 Pest-free stabilityanalysis
Releasesmorefrequentthan harvests Proposition 1 Let
Th
= kTr
wherek
∈ N
∗
and Hypotheses 1 be satised. Then, in the absen eof pests,model(1)possessesa globally stableperiodi solution
(xph
(t) , yph
(t)) =
0, y
∗
e
−d(t
mod T
h
)
+ µTre
−d(t
mod T
r
)
⌊
t
mod Th
Tr
⌋−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
(3) wherey
∗
=
1−e
−
dTh
1−e
−
dTr
(1 − αy
) + αy
1 − (1 − αy)e
−dT
h
µTr
(4)Proof: When
Th
= kTr
, in the absen e of pests and using Hypotheses 1, thesystem is simpliedto
˙x
=
0
˙y
=
−dy
x(mT
r
+
) =
(1 − δ (m
modk) αx)x(mTr)
y(mT
+
r
)
=
(1 − δ (m
modk) αy)y(mTr) + µTr
∀m ∈ N
(5)The pest populationstays nil sin ein the absen e of pests, theirpopulation does not hangeeither. Thesolution
xph(t) = 0
Ontheotherhand,thepredatorpopulationwillvarya ordingtothenumberof preda-torsmanually inje tedinto the systemand, sin ethepopulationisnon-zero, a ordingto thepartialharvestee t. Theabsen eoftheirsour eoffoodwill auseanexponentialde ay ofthe population. We demonstratethatthese for es will provokethe predatorpopulation to rea h aperiodi pattern ofperiod equalto
Th
, whi h weshall referto asthe period of referen e. Theinstantfollowinga oin idingpartialharvestandreleaseistakenasthepoint ofreferen e.ToproveProposition 1, werst show byindu tion that thepredator populationright afterarelease anbeexpressedintermsofthepointof referen easfollows
y(nTh
+ iT
+
r
)
= y(nT
h
+
)e
−idT
r
+ µTr
i−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
(6) wherei
∈ [0, 1, . . . , (k − 1)]
Itis seenthat(6)isvalid for
i
= 0
sin eitisequaltoy(nT
h
+
)
= y(nT
h
+
)e
0
+ µTr
−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
= y(nT
+
h
)
Nowsupposethat(6) holdsfor
i
= q
whereq
∈ [0, 1, . . . , k − 2]
,i.e.y(nTh
+ qT
+
r
) =
y(nT
h
+
)e
−qdT
r
+ +µTr
q−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
Wewill now show that (6) is valid for
i
= q + 1
. We al ulatey(nTh
+ (q + 1)T
+
r
)
fromy(nTh
+ qT
+
r
)
using(5),thensubstituting(3.1)into(7)asfollowsy(nTh
+ (q + 1)T
+
r
)
= y(nTh
+ qT
r
+
)e
−dT
r
+ µTr
=
y(nT
h
+
)e
−qdT
r
+ µTr
q−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
e
−dT
r
+ µTr
= y(nT
h
+
)e
−(q+1)dT
r
+ µTr
q
X
j=1
e
−jdT
r
+ µTr
= y(nT
h
+
)e
−(q+1)dT
r
+ µTr
q
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
(7)sothat (6)holdstruefor
i
∈ [0, 1, . . . , k − 1]
.Toevaluatetheevolutionof
y
a ordingtotheperiodofreferen eTh
,weneedto al ulate thevalueofy((n + 1)T
+
h
)
,whi h isequivalenttoy(nTh
+ kT
+
r
)
, in termsofy(nT
+
h
)
. Atthispointhowever,partialharvestingtakespla ebeforepredatorrelease;sowerstexpress itintermsof
y(nTh
+ (k − 1)T
+
y
(n + 1)T
h
+
=
y
(nTh
+ (k − 1)T
+
r
) e
−dT
r
(1 − αy) + µTr
=
y(nT
h
+
)e
−d(k−1)T
r
+ µTr
k−2
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
e
−dT
r
(1 − αy) + µTr
=
y(nT
h
+
)e
−dT
h
+ µTr(1 − αy)
k−1
X
j=1
e
−jdT
r
+ µTr
=
y(nT
h
+
)e
−dT
h
+ µTr
(1 − αy
)
k−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
+ αy
Notethatthesummationterm analsobeevaluated sothesequen eisexpressibleas
y
(n + 1)T
h
+
=
y(nT
h
+
)e
−dT
h
+ µTr
(1 − αy)
1 − e
−dT
h
1 − e
−dT
r
+ αy
(8) Inthislineardynami alsystem,the oe ientofy(nT
+
h
)
,e
−dT
h
islessthanonein magni-tude,sothesequen ewill onvergetoalimit,theequilibriumof(8). Thisequilibriumyields (4)andthe onvergen eof
y(t)
toaperiodi solutionyph(t)
basedony
∗
.
Nowthat wehave establishedthe existen eof the periodi solution
yph(t)
, we seek to formulateit. Wefo usonareferen eperiodovernTh
< t
≤ (n + 1)Th
duringwhi hyph(t)
is pie ewise ontinuous,withthe ontinuous omponentsseparatedbypredatorreleases. The ontinuousintervalsaredenedovernTh+iTr
< t
≤ nTh+(i+1)Tr
wherei
∈ [0, 1, . . . , k−1]
. Foragivenvalueoft
, thevalueofi
iseasily identiedasbeingi
= ⌊
t mod T
h
T
r
⌋
. Thevalue
of
y
ph(t)
isthenoftheformyph(t) = yph(nTh
+ iT
r
+
)e
−d(t
mod T
r
)
and,from(6)with
y(nT
+
h
) = y
∗
,wehavethatyph(nTh
+ iT
r
+
) = y
∗
e
−idT
r
+ µTr
i−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
sothatyph(t) =
y
∗
e
−idT
r
+ µTr
i−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
e
−d(t
mod T
r
)
=
y
∗
e
−d(t
mod T
h
)
+ µTr
e
−d(t
mod T
r
)
i−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
=
y
∗
e
−d(t
mod T
h
)
+ µTre
−d(t
mod T
r
)
⌊
t
mod Th
Tr
⌋−1
X
j=0
Thisisofthesameformas proposedin (3),thereby ompleting ourproof.
Theformoftheyph
fun tion isillustratedonFigure1.0
T
r
2T
r
T
h
= 3T
r
4T
r
5T
r
2T
h
7T
r
8T
r
3T
h
y
p
h
(t
)
t
Figure1: Formoftheperiodi solution
y
ph(t)
inthe asewherek
= 3
. Releasesofpredators areapparentateverymTr
instant,whilethe umulativeee tofharvestandreleaseleads toanapparentsmallerreleaseateverynTh
instant. Betweenthoseinstants,thepopulation de aysexponentiallysin eithasnopreytofeedon.Releasesless frequent than harvests
When harvesting is more frequent than the releaseof predators, we havea similar result abouttheexisten eofaperiodi solution.
Proposition 2 Let
Tr
= kTh
wherek
∈ N
∗
and Hypotheses 1 be satised. Then, in the absen eof pests,model(1)possessesa globally stableperiodi solution
(xpr
(t) , ypr
(t)) =
0, y
∗
e
−d(t
mod T
r
)
(1 − αy
)
⌊
t
mod Tr
Th
⌋
where
y
∗
=
µTr
1 − (1 − αy)
k
e
−dT
r
(10)
Proof: When
Tr
= kTh
, in the absen e of pests and using Hypotheses 1, thesystem is simpliedto
˙x
= 0
˙y
= −dy
x(nT
+
h
)
= (1 − αx)x(nTh)
y(nT
h
+
)
= (1 − αy)y(nTh) + µTrδ
(n
modk)
∀n ∈ N
(11)
Aspreviouslyexplained,
xpr(t)
issolvedfortriviallyasbeingxpr(t) = 0
We provethat the predator population again rea hes a periodi solution. This time, however,theperiodofreferen eis
Tr
. Thepointofreferen eistheinstantaftera oin iding harvest and release. We show by indu tion that the population after a harvest an be expressedasy(mTr
+ iT
h
+
) = y(mT
+
r
)e
−idT
h
(1 − αy
)
i
(12) wherei
∈ [0, 1, . . . , (k − 1)]
.Itis seenthat(12)isvalidfor
i
= 0
sin eitresumestoy(mT
+
r
) =
y(mT
r
+
)e
0
(1 − αy)
0
Suppose(12)holdsfor
i
= q
whereq
∈ [0, 1, . . . k − 2]
,i.e.y(mTr
+ qT
h
+
) =
y(mT
+
r
)e
−qdT
h
(1 − αy
)
q
(13) Wewillnowshowthat(12)isvalidfori
= q + 1
. We al ulatethevalueofy
wheni
= q + 1
in terms ofy(nTh
+ qT
+
r
)
, knowingfrom˙y = −dy
in (11)it will bean exponential de ay withtheadded omponentfortheharvest. Wethensubstitute(13)inand obtainy(mTr
+ (q + 1)T
h
+
) =
y(mTr
+ qT
h
+
)e
−dT
h
(1 − αy)
=
y(mT
+
r
)e
−qdT
h
(1 − αy)
q
e
−dT
h
(1 − αy
)
=
y(nT
h
+
)e
−d(q+1)T
h
(1 − αy)
q+1
(14)
Thisis learlythesameformgivenfrom theexpressionin (12),therebyvalidating it.
y
∗
isgivenasthexedpointofthesequen erepresentingpost-releaseinstants. Therefore, using(12)fori
= k
andmodel(11),wenext al ulatey((m + 1)T
+
r
)
asy((m + 1)T
+
r
) = y(mTr
+ kT
h
+
)
= y(mT
+
r
)e
−kdT
h
(1 − αy)
k
+ µTr
= y(mT
+
r
)e
−dT
r
(1 − αy)
k
+ µTr
(15)Inthis lineardynami al system,the oe ient of
y(mT
+
r
)
,e
−dT
r
(1 − αy)
k
islessthan oneinmagnitude,whi h onrmstheexisten eofthexedpoint
y
∗
towhi h thesequen e onverges. This equilibrium yields (10)and the onvergen e of
y(t)
to aperiodi solutionypr(t)
.Nowthat we haveestablishedthe existen e of the periodi solution
ypr(t)
, we seek to formulateit. Wefo usonareferen eperiodovermTr
< t
≤ (m+1)Tr
duringwhi hypr(t)
is pie ewise ontinuous,withthe ontinuous omponentsseparatedbyharvests. Theintervals of ontinuityspanmTr
+ iTh
< t
≤ mTr
+ (i + 1)Th
wherei
∈ [0, 1, . . . , k − 1]
. Foragiven valueoft
,the valueofi
iseasily identiedasbeingi
= ⌊
t mod T
r
T
h
⌋
. Thevalueof
ypr(t)
is thenoftheformypr(t) = ypr(mTr
+ iT
h
+
)e
−d(t
mod T
h
)
and,from(12)with
y(mT
+
r
) = y
∗
,wehavethatypr(mTr
+ iT
h
+
) = y
∗
e
−idT
h
(1 − αy)
i
sothat
ypr(t)
=
y
∗
e
−idT
h
(1 − αy)
i
e
−d(t
mod T
h
)
=
y
∗
e
−d(t
mod T
r
)
(1 − αy)
⌊
t
mod Tr
Th
⌋
whi h isexa tlytheexpressiongivenin(9)and ompletestheproof.
Theformoftheypr
fun tion isillustratedonFigure2.3.2 Global stability analysis
Sin e we will study the onvergen e of the solutions to
(0, yp(t))
(where thep
subs ript stands aswell forph
orpr
), it will be onvenientto des ribe the systemin terms of the deviation oordinateswithrespe ttothereferen eperiodi solution:˜
x(t) =
x(t) − xp(t)
˜
y(t) =
y(t) − yp(t)
Thisyields
˙˜x = f(x) − g(x)y
=
f
(˜
x) − g(˜
x)(˜
y
+ yp(t))
(16) and˙˜y = h(x)y − dy − h(xp)yp
+ dyp
0
T
h
2T
h
T
r
= 3T
h
4T
h
5T
h
2T
r
7T
h
8T
h
3T
r
y
p
r
(t
)
t
Figure 2: Form of the periodi solution
ypr(t)
in the ase wherek
= 3
. Harvests are apparentateverynTh
instant,whilethereleaseofpredatorsdominatestheharvestateverymTr
instant. Betweenthose instants, thepopulationde ays exponentiallysin e it hasno preytofeedon.The impulsive ee ts on
x
˜
are obviously un hanged ompared to those onx
. On the otherhand,thereleaseee ts ony
disappeariny
˜
; indeed,wehave˜
y(mT
r
+
) = y(mT
r
+
) − yp(mT
r
+
) = y(mTr) + µTr
− (yp(mTr) + µTr) = ˜
y(mTr)
Theharvestingimpulsesarepreservedintheexpressionof
y
˜
˜
y(nT
h
+
) = y(nT
h
+
) − yp(nT
h
+
) = (1 − αy)y(nTh) − (1 − αy)yp(nTh) = (1 − αy)˜
y(nTh)
Inthesequel,wewill performaglobalandalo alstabilityanalysis. Forthelatter,we willneed the omputation ofthe linearapproximationofthedeviation systemaroundthe periodi solution
(0, yp(t))
:˙˜x = (f
′
(0) − g
′
(0)yp(t))˜
x
Releasesmorefrequentthan harvests
We will rst prove our result in the ase where releases take pla e more often than har-vests. We obtain twodierent onstraints for the Lo al Asymptoti Stability (LAS) and Global Asymptoti Stability (GAS) of the periodi solution in system (1). The latter is obviously strongerthan theformer, but is su ientin the ase where pests outbreaksdo notimmediatelytakelargeproportions.
Inordertostatethefollowingtheorem,werstneedtodenethefun tion
µ
h
(S, r) = d
S
+
ln (1 − αx)
rTh
1
1 −
α
y
(
1−e
−
dTh
)
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
e
−
dTh
k
k
1−e
−
dTh
k
Thisfun tionisin reasingin
S
andr
be ausethesignofthepartialderivativesisdetermined bythesignofthelastfa tor,whi h anbeshowntobepositive. Indeed,thisfa torispositive whenαy
1 − e
−dT
h
1 − (1 − αy) e
−dT
h
!
e
−
dTh
k
k
1 − e
−
dTh
k
<
1
andwehave
αye
−
dTh
k
≤ αy
and1 − (1 − αy) e
−dT
h
> αy
,so thatαy
e
−
dTh
k
1 − (1 − αy) e
−dT
h
<
1
Also,k
1 − e
−
dTh
k
≥ 1 − e
−dT
h
sin ebothsidesoftheinequalityhavethesamevaluein
Th
= 0
,andd
dTh
k
1 − e
−
dTh
k
= de
−
dTh
k
≥ de
−dT
h
=
d
dTh
1 − e
−dT
h
whi h showsthat
µ
h
(S, r)
isin reasinginS
andr
. Theorem1 WhenTh
= kTr
withk
∈ N
∗
, the solution
(x(t), y(t)) = (0, yph(t))
of (1) is LASiµ > µ
h
f
′
(0)
g
′
(0)
, g
′
(0)
(19) andisGASifµ > µ
h
sup
x≥0
f
(x)
g(x)
,
sup
x≥0
g(x)
x
(20)Proof: Westartwiththeproofofglobal onvergen eunder ondition(20). Inthisproof, we will rstshow that
x
˜
goes to zero,from whi h wewill derivethaty
˜
goesto0
also (so thaty(t)
onvergestoyph(t)
).Let theinitial ondition forsystem (16)-(17) be
(˜
x0,
y0)
˜
at timet0
= 0
+
, that is after theharvestandthepredatorreleasethattakepla eattheinitial time. Analyzing(17)and notingthat
yph(t) + ˜
y
= y(t) ≥ 0
,wehave˙˜y ≥ −d˜y
sothat
y(t) ≥ min(0, ˜
˜
y0)e
−dt
.
Inordertoanalyzethe
˙˜x
equation,wedenethefun tionG(˜
x) =
Z
˜
x
x
0
1
g(s)
ds
(21)whi h aneasilybeseentobeanin reasingfun tionof
x
˜
sin eg(s) > 0
. Sin ewealsohave thatg(s) <
sup
x≥0
g(x)
x
s
,itisstraightforwardthatlim
˜
x
→0
>
G(˜
x) = −∞
. Inordertoshowthe ex-tin tionofthepestswewillthenprovethatG(˜
x)
goesto−∞
ast
goestoinnity. Therefore, wewritetheG
dynami s:dG(˜
x)
dt
=
1
g(˜
x)
˙˜x
=
f (˜
g(˜
x)
x)
− ˜
y
− yph(t)
≤
f (˜
g(˜
x)
x)
− min(0, ˜
y0)e
−dt
− yph(t)
Wewillnow onsidertheevolutionof
G
betweentwosu essiveharvests,thatistheevolution ofG
betweenthetimesnT
+
h
and(n + 1)Th
foragivenn
:G(˜
x((n + 1)Th)) ≤ G(˜
x(nT
h
+
)) +
Z
(n+1)T
h
nT
+
h
f (˜
x(s))
g(˜
x(s))
− min(0, ˜
y0)e
−ds
− yph(s)
ds
Sin e noimpulse is presentinside theintegral,we an dropthe
+
supers ript in its lower extremity.
Wewillnowanalyzehowtheharvestthattakespla eattime
(n + 1)Th
impa tsG
. We haveG(˜
x((n + 1)T
h
+
))
=
R
˜
x((n+1)T
h
+
)
x
0
1
g(s)
ds
=
R
˜
x((n+1)T
h
)
x
0
1
g(s)
ds
+
R
˜
x((n+1)T
h
+
)
˜
x((n+1)T
h
)
1
g(s)
ds
≤
G(˜
x(nT
h
+
)) +
R
(n+1)T
h
nT
h
h
f (˜
x(s))
g(˜
x(s))
− min(0, ˜
y0)e
−ds
− yph(s)
i
ds
+
R
˜
x((n+1)T
h
+
)
˜
x((n+1)T
h
)
1
g(s)
ds
(22)Thelasttermrepresentstheinuen eofharveston
G
and aneasilybeapproximated be- ause˜
x((n + 1)Th) > ˜
x((n + 1)T
h
+
) = (1 − αx)˜
x((n + 1)Th)
. DenotingSg
= sup
x≥0
f (x)
g(x)
andrg
= supx≥0
g(x)
x
,wehaveZ
(1−α
x
)˜
x((n+1)T
h
)
˜
x((n+1)T
h
)
1
g(s)
ds
≤
Z
(1−α
x
)˜
x((n+1)T
h
)
˜
x((n+1)T
h
)
1
rgs
ds
=
ln(1 − αx)
rg
(23)Introdu ing (23) into (22) then yields a bound on the appli ation between su essive momentsafter harvest.
G(˜
x((n+1)T
h
+
)) ≤ G(˜
x(nT
h
+
))+
Z
(n+1)T
h
nT
h
f (˜
x(s))
g(˜
x(s))
− min(0, ˜
y0)e
−ds
− yph(s)
ds+
ln(1 − αx)
rg
(24) We annowevaluateanupper-boundforG
atanytimet
≥ 0
. Deningl
astheinteger partoft
T
h
,wehave:G(˜
x(t)) − G(x0) ≤
R
t
0
h
f (˜
x(s))
g(˜
x(s))
− min(0, ˜
y0)e
−ds
− yph(s)
i
ds
+ l
ln(1−α
x
)
r
g
≤
R
t
0
Sg
− min(0, ˜
y0)e
−ds
− yph(s) ds + l
ln(1−α
x
)
r
g
=
−
R
t
0
min(0, ˜
y0)e
−ds
ds
+
R
t
lT
h
[Sg
− yph(s)] ds + l
R
T
h
0
[Sg
− yph(s)] ds
+l
ln(1−α
x
)
r
g
=
min(0,˜
y
0
)
d
(e
−dt
− 1) +
R
t
lT
h
[Sg
− yph(s)] ds + l
R
T
h
0
[Sg
− yph(s)] ds
+l
ln(1−α
x
)
r
g
Thersttwotermsarebounded(therstoneisobviousandthese ondoneisupper-bounded by
SgTh
). We then have to analyze the third one, whi h hasbeen obtained throughthe periodi ityofyph(t)
andthefourthin ordertoknowifG(˜
x(t))
goesto−∞
whent
goesto innity. Infa t,itsu estohaveZ
T
h
0
[Sg
− yph(s)] ds +
ln(1 − αx)
rg
<
0
toa hievethis. Itismore leanlyrewrittenintheform
Z
T
h
0
yph(t)dt > SgTh
+
ln(1 − αx)
rg
(25)In order to obtain (20), we are now left with the omputation of
R
T
h
0
yph(t)dt
, whi h is detailedin Proposition3oftheAppendix:Z
T
h
0
yph(t)dt =
µTh
d
1 −
αy
1 − e
−dT
h
1 − (1 − αy) e
−dT
h
!
e
−
dTh
k
k
1 − e
−
dTh
k
(26)Introdu ing(26)into(25)thenyields(20),whi h showsthat thislast onditionis su- ientforhaving
x
˜
goingto0
ast
goesto∞
.Sin e
x
˜
goes to zero, there exists a nite timetf
after whi hh(˜
x) ≤
d
2
for all times. Therefore,afterthistime,wehave˙˜y = h(˜x)(yph(t) + ˜
y) − d˜
y
≤ h(˜
x)yph(t) −
d
2
y
˜
Wehaveseenthat
h(˜
x)yph(t)
goestozeroast
goestoinnity;sodoesalsoy
˜
.Inordertohavetheglobalasymptoti stability,weareonlyleftwiththelo alasymptoti stability to prove. Inorder to do that, we onlyhave to onsider the dis retesystem that maps the state at time
nT
+
h
onto the state at time(n + 1)T
+
h
with respe t to the linear equation(18)andthedis retepart. Aftersome omputations,weobtain:˜
x
˜
y
(n + 1)T
h
+
= B
˜
x
˜
y
nT
h
+
(27) whereB =
(1 − αx)e
R
nTh
(n+1)Th
f
′
(0)−g
′
(0)y
ph
dτ
0
‡
(1 − αy
)e
−d
R
nTh
(n+1)Th
dτ
Note that
‡
is a term that we do not use in our analysis, therefore is not expressed. Indeed,sin ethematrixistriangular,itisstable if|B11| < 1
,i.e.Z
(n+1)T
h
nT
h
yphdτ >
f
′
(0)Th
+ ln(1 − αx)
g
′
(0)
(28)Similarly to what was doneearlier, it anbeshownthat (28) is equivalent to (19), so thatthene essaryandsu ient onditionforlo al stabilityisproven.
It is dire tlyseen that (28) issatisedwhen (25)isbe ause
µ
h
(S, r)
is in reasinginS
andr
andwehavef
′
(0)
g
′
(0)
= lim
x
→0
≥
f
(x)
g(x)
≤ sup
x≥0
f
(x)
g(x)
andg
′
(0) = lim
x
→0
≥
g(x)
x
≤ sup
x≥0
g(x)
x
(29)This ompletestheproofofglobalstability,sin ewehaveshownglobal onvergen eand lo alstabilitywhen(20)issatised.
Releasesless frequent than harvests
Ifwenow onsiderthe asewherepredatorsreleasestakepla elessoftenthanharvests,we alsoobtainglobalandlo al stabilityresultsbasedonthefollowingfun tion
µ
r
(S, r) = d
S
+
ln(1 − αx)
rTh
1 − (1 − αy)e
−dT
h
1 − e
−dT
h
whi h isin reasingin
S
andr
sin ethelast fra tionispositiveandαx
≤ 1
. Theorem2 WhenTr
= kTh
withk
∈ N
∗
, the solution
(x(t), y(t)) = (0, ypr(t))
of (1) is LASiµ > µ
r
f
′
(0)
g
′
(0)
, g
′
(0)
(30) andisGASifµ > µ
r
sup
x≥0
f
(x)
g(x)
,
sup
x≥0
g(x)
x
(31)Proof: This proof does not depart very mu h from the one of Theorem 1. The only dieren eisthatthereferen eperiod isnow
Tr
. Weusethesamefun tionG(˜
x)
asin(21) andananalysisidenti altotheoneoftheprevioustheoremleadstoG(˜
x(mTr
+ (l + 1)T
h
+
)) ≤
G(˜
x(mTr
+ lT
h
+
))
+
R
mT
r
+(l+1)T
h
mT
r
+lT
h
h
f (˜
x(s))
g(˜
x(s))
− min(0, ˜
y0)e
−ds
− ypr(s)
i
ds
+
ln(1−α
x
)
r
g
whi hisexa tly(24)sin eitisdepi tingthebehaviourofthemodelbetweentwoharvesting instants.
Extendingthisto thewhole
Tr
interval,weobtainG(˜
x((m + 1)T
+
r
))
≤ G(˜
x(mT
r
+
)) +
R
(m+1)T
r
mT
r
h
f (˜
x(s))
g(˜
x(s))
− min(0, ˜
y0)e
−ds
− ypr(s)
i
ds
+k
ln(1−α
x
)
r
g
Wenowseethat thisexpressionisidenti al to(24)withtheex eptionof thepresen eof a
k
fa torandtheexpressionofypr(t)
,whi h omesfrom(9)insteadof(3). Condition(25)thenbe omesZ
T
r
0
ypr(t)dt > SgTr
+ k
ln(1 − αx)
rg
(32)andthe omputationof
R
T
r
0
ypr(t)dt
withypr(t)
asin(9)yields:Z
T
r
0
ypr(t)dt =
µTr
d
1 − e
−dT
h
1 − (1 − αy
)e
−dT
h
(33) Thisleadsto onditon(31)(the omputationof(33)isdetailedinProposition4in the ap-pendix). Global onvergen eof(˜
x,
y)
˜
to(0, 0)
isthen on ludedbyusingthesameargument asin theproofofTheorem 1toshowthe onvergen eofy
˜
to0
.The lo al stability ondition(30) then dire tly arisesfrom the analysis ofthe stability ofthedis retelinearized systemthat maps
y(mT
˜
+
r
)
ontoy((m + 1)T
˜
+
r
)
.˜
x
˜
y
(m + 1)T
r
+
= B
˜
x
˜
y
mT
r
+
(34)where
B =
(1 − αx)
k
e
R
(m+1)Tr
mTr
f
′
(0)−g
′
(0)y
pr
dτ
0
e
R
mTr
(m+1)Tr
h
′
(0)y
pr
dτ
(1 − αy)
k
e
−d
R
mTr
(m+1)Tr
dτ
!
(35)Again, sin ethesystemmatrix islowertriangular, forstability wesimply requirethat
|B11| < 1
and|B22| < 1
. Thelatteryieldsatrivial ondition,sowe al ulate theformer:Z
(m+1)T
r
mT
r
yprdτ >
f
′
(0)Tr
+ k ln(1 − αx)
g
′
(0)
(36)whi h dire tlyleadsto ondition(30)forlo alstability andtheproof ofglobal stabilityis also ompletebe ause
µ
r
isin reasinginS
andr
and(29)isstillsatised.Comment
Aswehaveseen,when the ondition(20)or(31)issatised,theextin tionof thepestsis GAS.Whenthelo al ondition(19)or(30)isnotveried,theextin tionofthepestsisnot stableandabifur ationanalysissimilartowhatisdonein[10,12℄wouldshowthepresen e ofalimit y lewhen
µ
is losetothelimit. Whenµ
satises ondition(19)or(30)only,the pests extin tionislo allystableandwe annotruleoutthatitisgloballystable(sin e our global onditionisonlysu ient). Su habudgethastheadvantageofbeingsmallerthan theonethatguaranteesglobalstability. Itallowsforgood ontroloflimitedpestinvasions; howeverthe ultureisatriskofbeingdestroyedbyalargepest outbreak.Sin e, in both ases, the onditions for lo al and global stability are identi al up to twodierent parameters, any analysis of the onsequen es of oneof those onditions will immediatelytranslatetotheother. Theinterpretationof onditions(19)-(20)and(30)-(31) willbegivenin thenextse tion.
4 Interpretation of results Itiseasytoseethat
µ
r
isindependentofTr
. Theinuen eofTr
onµ
h
istri kiertoidentify sowe shall analyse it mathemati ally rst. We then present graphi ally the variation of bothµ
r
andµ
h
withrespe ttoTr
foratypi alsetofparametervalues,andattenpttogive apra ti alinterpretationoftheseresults.4.1 Mathemati al analysis Werstneedtonotethatwhen
S
+
ln(1−α
x
)
rT
h
<
0
,foranyofthelo alorglobal ondition,the onditionistriviallyveried. Indeed,itimpliessimplythat nobiologi al ontrolisneeded forexterminatingthepests;infa t,thepartialharvestingisee tiveenoughforthispurpose
(as
αx
islargeenough). Wenowevaluatehowthereleasefrequen yinuen estheminimal budgetwhenthis onditionisnottrivial.We have already seen that
µ
r
is independent ofTr
. We will now study the latter's inuen eonµ
h
.Theorem3 Let
T
h
= kTr
wherek
∈ N
∗
.
The minimalbudget ismonotoni allyde reasingwith respe ttothe releaseperiod
T
r
for non-negativevalues ofµh
,i.e.∂µ
h
∂Tr
<
0
(37).
Proof: Knowing that
Tr
is equaltoT
h
k
, it is possibleto identify the sign of∂µ
r
∂T
r
noting that∂µ
h
∂Tr
=
∂µ
h
∂k
∂k
∂Tr
=
∂µ
h
∂k
−k
2
Th
So sgn∂µ
h
∂Tr
= −
sgn∂µ
h
∂k
(38)µ
h
isexpressedastheprodu toftwodistin tiveparts,oneofwhi hisindependentofk
and whi h, forthenon-trivialstability ondition,ispositive,S
+
ln(1 − αx)d
rTh
>
0
where
S
andr
are theparameters requiredfor thelo al and global onditions,as dened previously.These ondpartisviewedasa ompositefun tion of
k
sothat(38) anbeevaluatedassgn
∂µ
h
∂Tr
= −
sgn
∂
∂k
1
1 −
α
y
(1−e
−
dTh
)
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
σ(k)
(39)where
σ(k) =
e
−
dTh/k
k
(
1−e
−
dTh/k
)
. Then, weget sgn∂µ
h
∂Tr
=
−
sgn
α
y
(1−e
−
dTh
)
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
1 −
α
y
(1−e
−
dTh
)
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
σ(k)
2
∂σ
∂k
=
−
sgn∂σ
∂k
=
−
sgne
−dT
h
/k
k
2
(1 − e
−dT
h
/k
)
2
dT
h
k
− 1 + e
−dT
h
/k
=
−
sgnke
−dT
h
/k
+ dTh
− k
(40) Sin e∂
∂k
(ke
−dT
h
/k
+ dTh
− k) =
1 +
dTh
k
e
−dT
h
/k
− 1
≤ 0
andusingl'Hospital'sRule
lim
k→∞
ke
−dT
h
/k
+ dTh
− k
= dTh
+ lim
k→∞
e
−dT
h
/k
− 1
1
k
= dTh
+ lim
k→∞
dT
h
k
2
e
−dT
h
/k
−
k
1
2
!
= 0
wededu ethatsgnke
−dT
h
/k
+ dTh
− k > 0
Therefore, sgn∂µ
h
∂Tr
<
0
(41)We an dedu e that we hit the smallest minimal value for the budget for the largest possible
Tr
in this ase that orresponds to whenk
= 1
. This happens when the release frequen yequalsthepartialharvestfrequen y.4.2 Dis ussion
Figure3representstheanalyti alresultsobtainedin thepreviousse tionsfora hosenset of parameters. The plot in ludes the twostudied ases: either oneof thepartial harvest andthereleaseperiodisanintegermultipleoftheother.
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
µ
T
h
2T
h
3T
h
4T
h
5T
h
T
h
T
r
2
T
h
4
T
h
8
Figure 3: Variation of the minimal numberof predatorsrequired perbudget year
µ
as a fun tion of releaseto harvest period ratio. Parameters are giventhe values (in arbitrary units):αx
= αy
= 0.5
,d
= 1
, andtherate of growthf
′
(0)
, fun tionalresponseg
′
(0)
and numeri alresponseh
′
(0)
withrespe ttotimewhenthee osystemispest-free,i.e.
xp(t) = 0
, areallequalto1.Under this setof possible s enarios,in reasingthefrequen yof releasebeyond the fre-quen yof harvestrequires that thetotal numberof predatorsto invest in be higherthan that when releases take pla e less or as often as partial harvests. In the latter ase, to ensurepesteradi ation,thetotalbudgetofpredatorsto investin isxed, independentlyof thereleaseperiod.
Theseresultsimplythatitis learlyless ostlytoprote tagreenhouse ultureforlower frequen iesofrelease. Ofadditionale onomi interest,inthis ase,thebiologi altreatment is always ombined with partial harvesting, so that there is little or no extra ost linked to the presen e of workers on-site. However, we re all that [13℄ previously demonstrated that thehigher thereleasefrequen y, thesmaller theworst- ase damages. Combiningthe resultsfrombothstudiesseemstoindi atethat themostprotablereleasestrategyamong thepossibilitiesthat havebeen onsidered istheonewhere releasesare syn hronizedwith thepartialharvests.
5 Con lusion
Theresultsobtainedinthispaperforthestabilityofthesystemareyetanother onrmation that inundative ontrol an be an ee tive means of suppressing low pest invasions in a greenhouse. Thisrequiresthatasu ientnumberofpredatorsareintrodu edinthesystem asin,forinstan e,[7, 9℄.
Our studyaimed to providea ontrol strategyin the prote tionof ontinuously grown rops that are partially harvested on a regularbasis. Wedemonstrated that partial har-vestinghadanon-negligibleee tonbiologi al ontrolandneededtobetakenintoa ount whendevisinga ontrolstrategyin the aseofsu h rops.
We thus investigated the ombined ee ts of releasesand partial harvests in terms of the relative frequen iesof their implementation. We onsidered the asewhere these two eventso urredatperiodssu hthatonewastheintegermultipleoftheother,andwiththe twoevents oin idingover the longerperiod. In parti ular, we found when releases were asfrequentasorlessthanthepartial harvests,theminimal budgetdidnotdependonthe period of release but instead on the harvest parameters, the growth fun tion of the pest population,themortalityofthepredatorsandthefun tionalresponse.Whenreleaseswere morefrequentthanthepartial harvestshowever,theminimal budgetvaluein reasedwith thein reasingfrequen y ofthereleases,ex eedingthe onstantvalueobtainedfortheless frequent ase. Combined with the ndings of [13℄ whi h pointed out that higher release frequen iesled to theoptimal ontrol poli y, we on luded that forthe set of possibilities thatwasstudied,the urrentbeststrategyiswhenreleaseandharvestfrequen iesareequal. This approa hhas, however, its short omings. Sin ethe integermultiple fa toris key to al ulatingtheminimalbudgetwhi h wouldsatisfythestability onditions,itisnotyet generalisedtoothers enarioswhereneitherperiodistheintegermultipleoftheother. This wouldhappenforinstan eatotherrationalnon-integerratiosasirrationalones. Itishighly likelythat theseintermediateratios mightindu eother dynami sin the system. Whether theymightstabiliseit given evenlowerminimal budgetvaluesorfavour haosremains to beseen. Moreoverit would be interestingto extendtheresultsto the ase wherethe two ontrolsnever oin ideinspiteoffollowingaperiodi pattern. Thiswouldbeinthelineof thework,forinstan e, of[11℄, where pesti ide spraying-whi h isanalogous to harvests -andreleasesarenotsyn hronised.
Nevertheless, we onsider that our simpli ation already has its pra ti al e onomi al advantage. Indeed, oin idingperiods implylittleornoadditional ostsin urred interms of labour: the task of predator release an be assigned to workers in harge of partial harvesting. Field-testingisnowthenextsteprequiredto validatetheresultsofthispaper.
Appendix
Proposition 3 Let Hypothesis1hold, then
Z
T
h
0
yph(t)dt =
µTh
d
1 −
αy
1 − e
−dT
h
1 − (1 − αy) e
−dT
h
!
e
−
dTh
k
k
1 − e
−
dTh
k
Proof: Inorder to omputetheintegral,wedes ribe
yph(t)
asyph(iT
+
r
)e
−(t−iT
r
)
in ea htimeinterval
[iTr,
(i + 1)Tr]
,withyph(iT
+
r
)
givenby(6)wheny(nT
+
h
) = y
∗
. This yields:R
T
h
0
yph(t)dt
=
k−1
X
i=0
yph(iT
+
r
)
Z
(i+1)T
r
iT
r
e
−d(t−iT
r
)
dt
=
k−1
X
i=0
y
∗
e
−idT
r
+ µTr
i−1
X
j=0
e
−jdT
r
Z
T
r
0
e
−dt
dt
=
y
∗ 1−e
1−e
−
−dTr
kdTr
+ µTr
Pk−1
i=0
1−e
−
idTr
1−e
−dTr
1−e
−
dTr
d
=
y
d
∗
(1 − e
−kdT
r
) +
µT
r
d
k
−
1−e
−kdTr
1−e
−
dTr
=
1−e−dTh
1−e−dTr
(1−α
y
)+α
y
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
µT
r
d
(1 − e
−kdT
r
) +
µT
r
d
k
−
1−e
1−e
−
−
kdTr
dTr
= µ
T
h
dk
(
1−e
−
dTh
)
(1−α
y
)+α
y
1−e
−
dTh
k
(
1−e
−
dTh
)
1−e
−
dTh
k
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
+µ
T
h
dk
k
1−e
−
dTh
k
−
(
1−e
−
dTh
)
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
1−e
−
dTh
k
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
= µ
T
h
dk
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
−α
y
e
−
dTh
k
(
1−e
−
dTh
)
1−e
−
dTh
k
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
+µ
T
h
dk
k
1−e
−
dTh
k
−
(
1−e
−
dTh
)
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
1−e
−
dTh
k
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
= µ
T
h
dk
−α
y
e
−
dTh
k
(
1−e
−
dTh
)
+
k
1−e
−
dTh
k
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
1−e
−
dTh
k
(
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
)
=
µT
h
d
1 −
α
y
(
1−e
−
dTh
)
1−(1−α
y
)e
−
dTh
e
−
dTh
k
k
1−e
−
dTh
k
Proposition 4 Let Hypothesis1hold, then
Z
T
r
0
ypr(t)dt =
µTr
d
1 − e
−dT
h
1 − (1 − αy
)e
−dT
h
Proof: Inorder to omputetheintegral,wedes ribe
ypr(t)
asypr(iT
+
h
)e
−(t−iT
h
)
in ea htimeinterval
[iTh,
(i + 1)Th]
,withypr(iT
+
h
)
givenby(12)wheny(mT
+
r
) = y
∗
. Thisyields:R
T
r
0
ypr(t)dt
=
k−1
X
i=0
ypr(iT
h
+
)
Z
(i+1)T
h
iT
h
e
−d(t−iT
h
)
dt
=
k−1
X
i=0
y
∗
e
idT
h
(1 − αy)
i
Z
T
h
0
e
−dt
dt
=
y
∗ (1−e
−
d
dTh
)
k−1
X
i=0
y
∗
e
idT
h
(1 − αy)
i
=
µT
r
1−(1−α
y
)
k
e
−dTr
(1−e
−
dTh
)
d
1−(1−α
y
)
k
e
−
kdTh
1−(1−α
y
)e
−dT h
=
µT
r
(1−e
−
dTh
)
d(1−(1−α
y
)e
−dT h
)
Contents
1 Introdu tion 3
2 Modeldes ription 4
3 Mathemati al analysis 6
3.1 Pest-freestabilityanalysis . . . 6 3.2 Globalstabilityanalysis . . . 11
4 Interpretationof results 18
4.1 Mathemati alanalysis . . . 18 4.2 Dis ussion . . . 20
5 Con lusion 22
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