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SEMINAIRE CNRM

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CNRM, UMR 3589

SEMINAIRE CNRM

jeudi 30 septembre 2021 à 11h

MODEL SPREAD AND PROGRESS IN CLIMATE MODELLING par Julie JEBEILE

Bern University

Lien visio BJ = https://bluejeans.com/715108137/4349

Résumé :

The range of climate projections from a multi-model ensemble, i.e. the model spread, is commonly used as a quantification of model uncertainty, and is expected to reduce as scientific research moves forward. Yet, sometimes, model spread remains steady or even increases. Can this situation indicate that progress in climate modelling is only limited? In order to address this question, I recently co-authored a philosophy of science paper entitled “Model spread and progress in climate modelling”. In the talk, I will present the main arguments of the paper in which we provide a possible explanation of the situation, describe an evaluative framework in which a steady (and even slightly increased) model spread is not doomed to be seen as negative, and further argue that, from the perspective of *collective*

progress, reduction of model spread is of lower priority than model independence.

Pour tout renseignement, contacter Y. Poirier (05 61 07 96 55) Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques

42, Avenue G. Coriolis - 31057 Toulouse Cedex

Références

Télécharger maintenant ( PDF - 1 Page - 128.05 KB )

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