Will climate change affect sugar beet crop emergence of the 21st century? Insight from a simulation study

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HAL Id: hal-02786878

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02786878

Submitted on 5 Jun 2020

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Will climate change affect sugar beet crop emergence of the 21st century? Insight from a simulation study

Jay Ram Lamichhane, Julie Constantin, Jean-Noel Aubertot, Carolyne Durr

To cite this version:

Jay Ram Lamichhane, Julie Constantin, Jean-Noel Aubertot, Carolyne Durr. Will climate change affect sugar beet crop emergence of the 21st century? Insight from a simulation study. 40. Biennial Meeting, Feb 2019, Anaheim, United States. 12 p. �hal-02786878�

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40

^th

Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25

^th

– 28

^th

February 2019

Will climate change affect sugar beet establishment of the 21 ^st century?

Insights from a simulation study

Jay Ram Lamichhane, Julie Constantin, Jean-Noël Aubertot, Carolyne Dürr INRA, France

[email protected]

(3)

Predicted variables Seedbed temperature Seedbed water content

Predicted variables

% germination

% emergence,

Time to Germ-Emer

Causes of non emergence

% of bolting Daily predicted variables

at a local scale

Air temperatures, rainfalls, wind, global radiation,….

1

2

3

(4)

Regionalized scenarios of climate change

Sugar beet cropping area in France Northern France

Air temperatures

wind, global radiation Rainfalls

2020 - 2100

40th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA Feb. 25 - Feb. 28 2019

1

(5)

Simulated seedbed climate 2

4 6 8 10 12 14

2000-2018 2020-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100

Seedbed temperature after sowing (°C)

Mid-February 1rst April

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2000-2018 2020-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100

Cumulative rainfall after sowing (mm)

Mid-February 1rst April

STICS

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The SIMPLE model’s main principles

Input variables

Soil structure

= f (tillage and sowing operations)

Species and seed lot

characteristics

Climate and soil characteristics

Output variables

Germination times and rates

Emergence times and rates

Seedling’s early growth

Equations for prediction of Germination and seedling growth

3D seedbed generator

T°, H

₂

O, soil surface crusting

40

^th

Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25

^th

– 28

^th

February 2019

X Z

Y

3

(7)

Simulation of sugar beet establishment

Total : 405 simulations

(405 000 individual seeds)

Seedbed structure

0 10 20 30 40 50

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 mm

% seeds

Sowing depths

X Z

Y

5 sowing dates

● Mid-February

● 1st March

● Mid-March

● 1st April

● Mid-April

● Seedbed temperatures

● Seedbed water content

● Daily rainfalls

● Air temperatures

2020 -2100

Sugar beet parameter values

Tb 3.5°C; ψb 1. 96 MPa Germination speed

Radicle and hypocotyl elongation

Clods and crust sensitivity

0 10 20 30 40 50

35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 Germination

(%)

degree-days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0 50 100 150 200

Hypocotyle length (mm)

Degree days after T50

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076 2078 2080 2082 2084 2086 2088 2090 2092 2094 2096 2098 2100

2020-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100

Predited emergence (%)

Years

Mid-February

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076 2078 2080 2082 2084 2086 2088 2090 2092 2094 2096 2098 2100

2020-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100

Predicted emergence (%) 1^stApril

2020 -2040

2080 -2100

Emergence rate %

48 ± 32

68 ± 20

Results

Nb days to max emergence

45 ± 24

37 ± 10

2020 -2040

2080 -2100

Emergence rate %

69 ± 15

74 ± 15

Nb days to max emergence

28 ± 7

23 ± 8

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Causes of non emergence

0 10 20 30 40

Mid-February 1rst March Mid-March 1rst April Mid-April

Non germinating seeds (%)

2020 - 2040 2080 - 2100

0 10 20 30 40

Seedlings killed by drought after germination (%)

2020 - 2040 2080 - 2100

0 10 20 30 40

Seedlings blocked by soil surface crusting

(%) 2020 - 2040

2080 - 2100

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Bolting risks

Source image IRBAB

40

^th

Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25

^th

– 28

^th

February 2019

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

2020-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100

Predicted bolting rate (%)

15th Feb.

1srt March 15th March 1st april

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2020-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100

Probability of devernalization

(N° days Tmax > 25°C)

1st april 15th March 1srt March 15th Feb.

days

Bolting rate = f(T < 12°C after sowing;

and Tmax > 25°C 60-120 days after sowing over 7 days)

Longden et al, 1975; Fauchère et al, 2003

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0 20 40 60 80 100

0 50 100 150

Cumulative rainfall in March (mm)

% Sugar beet sown surface at the end of March

Field access during the sowing period

Historical data 1987 - 2018

Predicted cumulative rainfalls 2020 - 2100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076 2078 2080 2082 2084 2086 2088 2090 2092 2094 2096 2098 2100

Cumulative rainfall March (mm)

mm

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Conclusions

An insight into the future has been possible with the help of - Precise geolocalized climatic scenario

- Detailed crop models for simulation

Limits

- Quality of models and hypothesis - Biotic stresses

Main results

- Main changes will occur after 2060

- An increase in temperatures will favor crop establishment and decrease bolting risk - Rainfalls will be a main limit preventing field access

40

^th

Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25

^th

– 28

^th

February 2019

(13)

Will climate change affect sugar beet establishment of the 21

^st

century? Insights from a simulation study using a crop emergence model Jay Ram Lamichhane, Julie Constantin, Jean-Noël Aubertot, Carolyne Dürr

[email protected]

Submitted. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/541276

Will climate change affect sugar beet crop emergence of the 21st century? Insight from a simulation study

HAL Id: hal-02786878

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02786878

Will climate change affect sugar beet crop emergence of the 21st century? Insight from a simulation study

Jay Ram Lamichhane, Julie Constantin, Jean-Noel Aubertot, Carolyne Durr

To cite this version:

40

Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25

– 28

February 2019

Will climate change affect sugar beet establishment of the 21 st century?

Insights from a simulation study

Jay Ram Lamichhane, Julie Constantin, Jean-Noël Aubertot, Carolyne Dürr INRA, France

Predicted variables Seedbed temperature Seedbed water content

Predicted variables

% germination

% emergence,

Time to Germ-Emer

Causes of non emergence

% of bolting Daily predicted variables

at a local scale

Air temperatures, rainfalls, wind, global radiation,….

1

2

3

Regionalized scenarios of climate change

Sugar beet cropping area in France Northern France

Air temperatures

wind, global radiation Rainfalls

2020 - 2100

40th Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA Feb. 25 - Feb. 28 2019

1

Simulated seedbed climate 2

Seedbed temperature after sowing (°C)

Cumulative rainfall after sowing (mm)

STICS

The SIMPLE model’s main principles

Input variables

Soil structure

= f (tillage and sowing operations)

Species and seed lot

characteristics

Climate and soil characteristics

Output variables

Germination times and rates

Emergence times and rates

Seedling’s early growth

Equations for prediction of Germination and seedling growth

3D seedbed generator

T°, H

O, soil surface crusting

40

Biennial Meeting – Anaheim, CA 25

– 28

February 2019

X Z

Y

3

Simulation of sugar beet establishment

Total : 405 simulations

(405 000 individual seeds)

Seedbed structure

Sowing depths

X Z

Y

5 sowing dates

● Mid-February

● 1st March

● Mid-March

● 1st April

● Mid-April

● Seedbed temperatures

● Seedbed water content

● Daily rainfalls

● Air temperatures

2020 -2100

Sugar beet parameter values

Tb 3.5°C; ψb 1. 96 MPa Germination speed

Radicle and hypocotyl elongation

Clods and crust sensitivity

Will climate change affect sugar beet establishment of the 21 ^st century?