Africa and the fertilizer Industry : a review of the industry in the light of recent world-wide developments

UNITED NATIONS

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL

Distr*

LIMITED

E/CN.14/IKR/212

9 Ssptqraber 1975 Original: ENGLISH

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

AFRICA AND THE FERTILIZER INDUSTRY

i T»ftxri6Wef the industry in the light nf T-ecent world-wide developments

CONTENTS

PREFACE _---"""

INTRODUCTION: GENERAL CONCEPTS - - - - -

I. REVIEW OF PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE

TO 1970/1971 ---

At the regional level - - -. - -

At the subregional and country levels - - - -

Recent shortages of fertilizers ---

Trends in use, prices and transport cost of fertilizers II. FORECASTING DEMAND """"""""

Probable demand - - -

Potential demand ---

III0 MANUFACTURING FACILITIES ---

IV. FACTORS FOR AND AGAINST DWELG£MENT - - - - Factors impeding development - - - -

Factors favouring development - -

V. PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT ---

Fertilizer intermediates - - - - Fertilizer materials - — - -

VI. INSTALLATION AND OPERATIONAL COST IMPLICATIONS

Investment ---

Cost of production ---

Paragraphs

1

10 10 16 19

22

27

28 38 68 78 81 86 105 108 117 122 122 138

- 9

-26 - 15 - 18 - 21 -26 -67 - 37 -67 - 77 - 1G4 -85 - 104 - 121 - 116 - 121

- 148 - 137 - 148

Page

iii 1

2 2 3 4 5 6 6 9 18 21 22 23 27 28 30 31 31 36

M75-177O

E/CN.14/IHR/212

SUMMARY - AHHEXES

IA:

IB:

IC:

ID:

IF:

IG:

IH:

II:

III:

IV:

V:

. ; , ■ CONTENTS (cont'd)

Paragraphs Page

" ~ --- 149 - 165 38

Production, consumption, imports and exports of fertilizers in Africa

by country and subregion in 1970/1971

Shipping freight rates for fertilizers and their intermediates, raw "

materials and some agricultural products

Prices of foods, fertilizers,and fertilizer intermediates and raw

materials '

Fertilizer consumption (in kilograms) in relation to arable land, agricultural land anc! population, 1971/1972

Production of cereals, starchy roots and sugar in Africa and the world ZMnmonia, phosphoric acid and muriate of potash, expected capacity in

7ifrica in 1974-1980

African reserves of major fertilizer raw materials

Orders of magnitude of investment requirements at mid-1975 prices

Pricing policy for fertilizer raw materials, intermediates and products

Transport and distribution w . s .

Environmental pollution from fertilizer plants -

African potash resources and prospects for exploiting them.

- ii -

E/CN.14/INR/212

U -cent ^ «, world has faced e crisis, the focd crisis and the fertiliser

factors, such as inflation and uncertainty in the have hit developing eountnes the hardes*>J«™

manufactured goods, these s^"6®*^/

access to, and find the resources to affairs «y, to so-ne e=dtent, ease x»

PREFACE

^r^ME retafed

monetary 8ituationr

^ ^ ^^ of

. diffioult to secure

imports. Although this state of

imp %^ ^ oountries ln

^developed oountries and a number

to reduce their

SfLfhSe^orLfi

that this paper has been prepared.

This paper reviews the 'ertUiser situation -d region in relation to those xn the »°rld as a whole.

that, in certain areas of the region, high P«°^ ^ development of the fertiliser ^f/f™

energy resources which are available

S is a.inet this

^ ^^ t<>

indigenous raw materials and

fn attempt has teen made to

plications based on import

Lt substitution and

increased exports on the other.

- 111 -

E/C1I.14/™/212

■ ■ ■-

XNTKOTCTM.-: GENERAL CONCEPTS

problems.-

■by plants.

into pr

synthesis of protoplasm

conditions for al^ three.

6. ** nutrients axe remove*

becomes deficient in nutrients, ^

soils (including poor soils) ca,, be

^S5 f

- —

o (phosphate) and ^

nutrient Tsy that of N

-r -

essential oom

i

^of

different forms and in

P 1=

.

!

j ^ ively

^lying nutrientsin the form oft,

^t _andd lant residues)

fertiliser materiftls-.,,.sJ5ie »' r2 5

E/C»-14/Effi/212

Page 2

circumstances £atefmay replace

electrical energy, orT aciS

and hydrocarbons;-

/ '""i'» °ruat. In some

' ^ SUlphUr may te reP^d ^ frOm Sal% or from combinations of nitrogen

s S3^Stt&

Phosphoric acid are the main basic

these and muriate of potaS o^Ld W^n

materials. Fertilizer materials of interest

inte™^iates.

Ammonia and •

of fertilizer

the.agronomic retirements of the sou!

in the last depending

I. REVIEW OP PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION ATO TRADE TO 1970/1971

At tha TfigjonaV 1,flypi -_ totoj

■-rO

f

compared to 9.1 p^ cent for thfCll

consumption were 711,-000. and 1,633,000 _and

increased of 12.9 pei

figures., for

S

world

™ohm?tttirt J».JS Alining rate of increase in nitrogen ^^ fP ^ de0PeaSin? rate f0; phosphat exS.

XP0 "* a PiSing rat6 °f inOrease for Phosphate imports

E/CN. HZ™*

Page 3

exporter of in potash. In

tons

^

„ potash respectively and self-

have made some progress.

andoonsumetion^f

Production

Iupo:?J-3

0.6 2.7 -

4,5 2.4 4*4

1.1 2.9 - !-4

4 3-9 3.0 4*0

3.7 1.4' 2.0

.. l—I, i— ■ i1

.«S5 5-9 3,0 9-7 0.5 10.6 2.6

2.9 3.0 1.6 0 2.4 1=3 2«3

for all fertili

that these are the sutoegione that surier

exorbitant prices of fertilxzers.

2«

contiming shortage and

Page 4 ^-IE

lf» At the countrv IpvpI

consumption and production of 10,000 tons and above ?n

consumption: South Africa,

*§* Zambia, ^isia and'

regional consumption of N, P contributed 98 per cent of

Kena and telawi tod no t

S

0

contributed 94 per cent of alone provided 89 per cent absolute terms.

Coun*rles aooo^t for most of the region's

^"^L1^6* ^ ^ °f N <=°»

order of total nutrient

M M°r°0C0' K^«

and K 0 ™ ^- , °r 88» 89 and 74 Per °eat of

ltf?^ SeVe" of these countries

the

••

^{per cent}

countries

and Southe™ ^odesia

were fairly small in

19. Throughout the 1960s fW+ii

available to facers everywhere, o and transportation of fertilizers ^c (presenting advantages of economies of

tion capacity and oversupply) and tte tr^

rraird relati^ly stable or even Sclin^ was steadily rising and to e^

inflationary trend of costs, this increase in productive capacity ( consequence the years 1972197/

t ^es aiid in ^equate quantitlee were 6Chnolo^cal developments in the production f 2T?* togM-eoale operations

Vh°WeVer' res^"ed in excess produc- hl*-s»U»i" fertilizers, prices

by this favourable trend,

durin th ^ r

iv g the ear^ ^r

decreasing profit margins and the

"°* b "I*Ched ^

in recent years.

E/CN.14/BK/212

Page 5

as

development

paper, uncertain.

. The trend towards

^5|

procurement has been reduced or in

... .

of fertilizers

aSe^ ^= S

aooSrding to type and.form of fertilxzer

It is likely that this trend will continue, rates have been the major

of 1972 and the first ^of

international fertilize^supply scheme (e/C(W. 65/7)

" ," ' ■

maritime shippin the height rate

,;,..

■»/■ Progress report on the in

** , . , . ,,..

¥/ According to a study of maritime shipping capacities and freight, rates (pA0

1974*

E/CIM4/IKR/212

P 6

prevailing in lm. riapfM

lt

rmpiex piling in lm riapfM f1^ ^tTe

latter part of the first Quarter of 19% Lot

cent'Wthe levels in the third quarter f ^74

of 1 9% ot a2t a2t

levels in the third quarter of ^74!^

ESr «

pollution controls--^

came of the

* ****** rates

co'sta and ti

nine- ^

■ ■-■:.--. . Ho FORECASTING*- DEI

Probable

28. Tentativo, unsophisticated regional demand projections, intended to

rm«^jmto* of magnitude for 1975/1976 and 18/8 _ere

vol. 27, NOo 679 (21 March 1975), Po23* :

T»bl. )■ for fertiliser* 10-M/1QT1 and ^n..0ti0n. for and 198QA931. (« 1000 ton.)

art

? 0 z 5

Projtctsd Otl«lft' ^{Projeot.d Projected}

197OA971 1975A976 I9B0A9BI 197OA971 1975A976 1980A98I 197OA971 1975A976 196oA?BI 19TOA971 1975A9761°60A9Bl

b7 i7 a7 a? a7 °7

« , S2.6 98.8 1J.8 40.0 70.0 ZZ.l 40.0 50-0 70.B 13Z.S 8ia.&

7.« 79.8 132-:

En.tero Afrio 138.3 150.4

99.31/ 58.6 4/

50.3 4/_{73.0 300.0 484.O}

I88.4 342. B 417.8 ^{264.O 91.2 391-5} 512.4 834.8

46.5 100.9

063.5 576.7

65*. 6 9I6.S 1 341.7 640.7 B36.O ^{307.0 1 240.2}

843.0 1 159-4 1/ 1/

900.0 1 100.0 238.6 46O.O 1 631.7 2 289-4 3 319.5

Africa (DHJDO, 1971 )U Afrioa (FAO, Juaa 1974)

1 300.0 1 boo.o 1 53O.O 2 170.0

soo.o 1 100.0 970.0 1 390.0

400.0 600.0

450.0 700.0

2 500.0 3 500.0 2 950.0 4 2oO.O

Dtv.loping Afrioa * (Afnei lssi tfas

Bspubllo of South Afrioa) (World Bank) ^{278.1 1 082.5}

•valopina Africa B (Afrioa lass So Afrioa, Bgypt, Libya and Sudan)-'

(IVA, August 1972) aoo.o 900.0 400.0 joo.o 1 300.0 1 600.0

Vorld (M0, Jua» 1974)^

(World Bank Oroup)4'

(FVA, 1974 - Hi* viluas)^

(Q.R, Allan, luguat 1974 - ivarag*

(usibo. lqiil^'

43 170.0 58 450.0 62 900.0 56 900.0

46 45O.0 70 fi5°-0 48 70O.O 68 400.0

20 520.0 3B 470.0 33 700.0 31 100.0

27 590.0 36 100.0 28 400.0 37 000.0

24 43O.O 31 610.0

25 600.0

23 000.0 33 100.0

22 300.0 28 100.0

96 120.0 128 530.0

.. 113 600.0

97 000.0139 850.0 99 400.0133 5OO.O

3ouf.q,B» 1 a/ Annual Ftytllmr Rmian 1Q72 (Rom, MO, 1973).

y Tb,. P«trol«u» Evdiooarbon Pron»»qlnfl Induttry in Affloa (JS

a/ In»BBtiwpt Promotion l«iiBl»tt«r. Vol. II, lo.l, KA, Augu.t 1974t pp.19-21.

d/ a.port on r»rtiliMr and Cnanin.l lndu.trl«a in 8ul Afrioa (B/C".14/IH»/2O6).

l/ Finanolal L.niloation. of H..tin. th. yutur* l^rtlli».r F..d. of Dripping CountrUi up M> 1980 f_/ Hb of Currapt Martot Trandi and Pro

a/ Th«-orld foad urobl... cro.MQt* for national and int.raaUonal aotion (E/SOIT.65/4). pp. 38-39-

■$J Eiaopnii Chaaioal B.nn. vol. 26, Mo. 658 (IB Ootober 1974). Cn«ai»oope aupplCMBt, pp. 6 Hid 8.

1/ mrlan of Horli Preduotion. CoMuaptlffn and Int.matlanal Trad, in fartlliwr. irith Proi.otien. to

and Prio«> (TAO doounent A<B> P/74/2 Add.l), pp.2-5.

and 1980

E/CH. 14/1HH/212 .' Page 7

29- The regional projections for H represent total projected demand in individual

raembefsta!fs! V^erever possible, recent official forecasts or P*°3^-- ™fe

member States themselves or other organizations have been used. In

demand inthe remaining countries an attempt has been mad^° "f^

ions in the light of actual performance and trends inthe second

1960s! £ other fases the figores were based on rates of --e^se attained

or expected to be attained in countries with similar economy conditions. It is

R o note that the 1975/1976 and I98Q/198I overall totals of £

of ^{tons in}

W

^{tons in}

30. With regard to phosphate and potash fertilizers, different approaches were

used, lie rfgional OnIM projections for phosphate were adopted and resionaA pro

tons madegfor potash based on past: trends. The -^on"e^Tall

these pro lections was made in the following manner. Recent estimates for all

Orients for the Eastern African subregicn were used unchanged. 6/ ,ith respect

to West and Central Africa individual country estimates were computed assuming the 1969/1970 and 1970/1971 average U: PgO.: \0 ratios to apply to 1975/1976. For 1980/1981 the later average ratios were adjusted to reflect the trend as implied by the averages for 1961/1962 - 1965/1966 and individual annual figures for the

1965/1966 -1970/1971 period. The balance between the regional projections and the totals of the three subregions were arbitrarily assigned to the remaining subregions, Horth-and Southern Africa. It is important to note here that all the projections 'implicitly assume that the cost/benefit relationship of fertilizer use will not be

very different from what: it was before the oil crisis, that is, .demand will not

be constrained by the raw material and enorgy crisis and soaring prices of -

fertilizer materials*

31. How do the above projections compare with the other

Z iTmilliontons N in 1980/198! ( not ^how* intable 3). M tor«,£ s seem

to reflect the faster rate of increase achieved during the first two years of the:

1970s compared with those of the 1960s (including the. second half of tne Ktfgktt

The question here is, considering the continuing tight- supply situation and the phenomenally high prices of fertilizers, do these targets stand a chance-of being

attained?' , :

32 As for the remaining forecasts, it should be pointed out^that they refer^to

l^eloping Africa! The Sorld Bank forecast for N for 198O/1981 (1.4 million tons) is no! vefy different from the 1,360,000 tons projected share for "developing

_5/ Tg.iTT.TMan Chemical Mews, vol. 26, M0.666 (13 December 1974)r P- 28.

6/ ~'Report onPertilizer and Chemical Industries in East Africa (e/CN.14/IHR/2O6),

E/CN.14/IM/212

Page 8

Africa A" (1,760,000 ~ 400,000 (projection for-South.Africa) .1,360,000 tone) '"

Considering the »i P^ ratio for South Africa it ,s not unlikely thai! the sal

conclusion will apply to phosphate as well* The TVA:forecasts in the table, however

^ ?Sn + +1?Uy+1°Wer I***' thOSe glVen ln °ther 30u?ce8< According to the.-latter '

the 19-80 total nutrient forecast ranges from 1.9 million to 2,4- million with 2,2 million: tons as midpoint of the projected.consumption; j/ It is evident that every-one of these figures is considerably higher than the total nutrient of U6 . million tons in table 3--. It is likely t^t .these forecasts refer to "developing-.

AfricaA"; n which c-isc they, together with■: the ^pprbiircately 1-million tons'- i

™f!^ for S6?th ^ric'a» compare fe*cttr.*bly..with, tho regional projection-of ' --

3,320,000 tens. ■..-: vi ; -xlzsvx >-r ■ p."». . :

aL^Ti80^0^0113811 projections with-.those,of Noyes (not shown in the table) 8/

!h°WS^at_th? l^^r are considerably higher. The average of the hiafe and low

^{y g.} The average of the high, and low

T

325r°°° tOnS (l97°)fi 45°iOO° t0ns (W5) ^d 700r000 tons

2 ?r*x. ! 9/9 appears to be the base year for the.Noyes forecasts it-is .

li-kely-that, as was found to be the case with a number of ECA estimates-prepared in the early, and middle 1960s, his forecasts are on the high side. ^ ■ ■; ■

group of forecasts in table. 3 are those pertaining to the florid-as. .a

^n-f, ! ASl nutrient fi^es for 198.0 it is clear that Allen's projections Hi /n ^J,tOnSi :aTt tte hi^st, followed "by those of PAO (129 million tons) and

TVA (114.million tons) - the World Bank estimates deing incomplete.

At the,iridivi(iual nutrient level, projections generally follow the above rank-

l Phoff/°Je^^ *7_ Allen heing an exception a& it ia,lower ^han that JTfU,-\ I ? 5 : ^./^tios.derived from the projections are (4^ l) 0.51s

47 (Allen),.0.54 : 0o4^,(irVA) .and. 0.^ : Oo54 (FA0)n They compare with the stekily

?^n^f f?^ual ratios ***<Si»»*89 (1959/1960) to 0o63 :0o52 (1971/1972), The

A'Sano. Alleys projections imply a perceptible shift towards the use of more N

in relation to P^ ^a KgO, ^^ shift ,,onforrns with the ,bovc general trond- ."

The qt^estion here is: will this trend continue or will it be reversed? Could the

1972A973,ratio (o.67 , ^5ii in favou, of P^ ^ W J£ beginn ^^

a reversal? ■■ ■ - :Tn:..fi -.;'■?■..-.---.

36. The regional projection works out at.-2^38 per cent of Allen's projection* 2.58

per cenc of PAO'b and 2^2 per cent of .the TVA world projections The actual African share in world consumption increased from 2*09 per cent in I959A96O to 2,66 per cent in 1972/197^'• an average annual rate of increase ..of 1O9 per cent (3.5 per cent.for the last five years of the period). Extrapolation of this trend to I960 gives an African share of 3*10 per cent, which is closer to that obtained on the basis of the TVA world projectionn The implication .here is that the regional projections may prove to "be on the conservative -sideo ■ .

1/ Chemical Engineering,. 24 June 1974, P«98 I. Chemical and Engineerin

j 22 April 1974B pp. 14- 15« *^T

;:■■■■ &/ PQ^Bibilites dg. production de. la potasse danHj.^J^y^m^^jjV,^'(? ' Centre d'etudes industrielles du Maghreb, 1972), tables'XVI and" XVII. "' '■

E/CN.14/IMB/212

Page 9

In of this last statement, ar.d although the 2,3 million ton figure

apply for the purpose of this paper.

Potential demand

38. In an attempt to get a rough idea of short-term and long-term potential needs . for fertilizers, the following three approaches were used:

39. On the basis of T~ n^ti fmtili^ nm.Hnmptjon 1" 1980/1981. Consumption of .

fertilizer nutrients in kg per head for selected countries and »f^ « Wg?2

is shovm in annex ID. At the regional level, it is clear that Africa with 5.3 ^ per head tails behind all the other regions. The same is true m regard to deve loping Africa B" (at 2.9 kg per head)compared with other developing areasThere are wide disparities within Africa, consumption per head ranging from 0.1 kg in Ethiopia and Upper Volta to 29.7 kg in South Africa.

40. The figures in table 4 were calculated on the assumption that the 1971/1972 per

consumption in the regions and countries listed in annex ID will apply to 8/I8I

p

Africa in I98O/I98I.

41. On the basis of w+-»™ application. As can be seen from

Af' l

41. On the basis of r~ w+-»™ frtiiispr application. As can

Innex JUi, wnat was said above regarding Africa's and developing Africa's place in

per capita fertilizer consumption applies to the per hectare consumption °f

feti&a as well. Here the contrast is even worse, at both regional and country levels. The use of fertilizer on arable land, for instance, ranges from 0.1 kg per hectare in Upper Volta to 2O5.l kg per hectare in Mauritius. Although fertilizers are used elsewhere at rates higher than the latter (up to more than 700 kg per hectare in the 1 otherlands), the potential application in ..frica 1B likely to be

within the above range for a long time to come.

42. From various issues of the PAD Production Yearbook it appears that, due *°

changes in data - reported to be reflecting mainly a general improvement in statistic al information or better interpretation -the area classified under arable ^f

(including land under permanent crops) has been showing a downward trend. It fell from 239 million hectares in I96I to 230 million in 1966 and 205 million m 1971 (representing 14 = 3 per cent of world arable land), rising to 214 million in 1972.

In this paje? the 1971 area has bean used as a basis for calculating the African

potential need at the 1971/1972 rates applicable to certain regions and countries.

The resulting estimates are presented in table 4.

43. On the basis ^ fnod demand in 1Q80/1981. Mainly because of drought, world food production declined in 1972 for the first time since the Secondaorld har.

In many African countries (the Sahelian countries, for instance) food production in re^nt years has not been keeping pace with the rising volume of demand due

to population growth and rising incomes. As an illustration of the food crisis

in Africa, although cereal production in "developing Africa A" fell from 56.6

million tons in 1972 to 47.6 million tons in 1973, the total food production index

E/CN.14/INR/212

Page 10

Potential use based on:

1. 197l/l972 per capita consumption in

- Developing Near Fast"""""'"■"■"~"

- South America

2-

- Southern Rhodesia - South Africa _» Oceania

1971/1972 per hectare consumption in

- Developing Near East - South America

- Asia . .- . .- ...•**.■■

- South- Africa ; : I

- Bauritiue 3» Pood demand

■:' (a:) .Energy need (2,400 calories

capita per day)

(b) Derived from PAO projection for

developing regions

(c) Derived frpja FAO Agricultural

Projections: (I97O-I98O) a/

(d) Based on 60.0 million tons cereal supply in 1970 and rate of increase

of 3-9 per cent (e) Cereal supply per capita

Likely potential demand ■ low

= high

Likely effective projected demand

a/ Includes potential demand for cereals in

3 450 4 490 5 430 10 000 - 14 000 34 740

3 100 4 500 5 500 10 400 -28 700

42 000 -

3 130

4 820 2 710

3 380

3 430

3 430 5 000 3 320

South Africa 1 2 2

,5 7 18

1 2 2

5 15

22

1

2

1

1 1

1 2 1

■

830 377

875

290 420 400

644 378 915

500 200 256'

660 550

430

790 820 820 650 760

1 1 1 3 4 11

1 1 1 3 9 14

1

1

1 1

1 1 1

150

495 810 33p

665 600

033

500

830 465 550 000

030 600

900

120 130

130 .670 100

470 618 745 .1 380 1 915 .4 740

403 622

755

; 1435

^3,950

5 750

440

; 670 380

470 t480 480 680 46O

E/CJT. 14/IKR/212

Page 11

(I96I-I965 average - 100) remained at the same level (128) in 1973 as in 1972. . The corresponding figures for per capita iood. production were even- Worse (102 and 99)* 2./ As a result, "developing Africa A" was "an importer of cereals (rice, wheat

and wheat flour) to the tune of 6*4 million tons of wheat equivalent in 1972*

1 This gloomy trend becomes clearer when the 1961/1965 average level of imports of

4»4 tnillion tone 'is compared with that of 1972, and when account is taken of the

phenomenal rise in. the prices of. cereals (see annex IC)f implying enormous import

■bills' in the future„ ..,..,■

•■." -■.

44* On. the basis of figures provided by FAD .10/ the percentage share of "developing Africa A" in world output of certain foods for the two last years of the I96I—1972

(preliminary) period works out at 1.1 and I08 (wheat), 2O6 and 3«3 (barley), 4.1 and 4.1 (maize), 1-4 and 1«7 (rice)r 2.7 and 4.1 (sugar) and'"2-9 and 3-0 (meat)..

(a) Calorie requirements , ■ ; •.: ' ' ■ „■'- '' ■ .

45- The total population of Africa is expected to increase frt)m 357 million in 1970

to 472 million in I98O (the corresponding figures for "developing Africa A" being 337' million and 442 million.and "developing Africa B" 285 million and 36l million).

In other wordsff the region will have to. feed about 115 million (105 million and 76 million -for "developing Africa A and^.B" respectively);additibiial months, ty 1980.

This, coupled with the badly needed.improvement in nutritional standards, will mean that Africa!s additional food requirement will be relatively large. The extent of nutritional deficiency is indicated by the fact that 25 per cent of the population

"of "developing Africa B" is reported not to be. getting its daily energy cost, of maintenance, which""is. supposed to be between 1,900-arid 2pQ00cal.ories per day for a

young adult male, '^l/ In 1970 average per capita food supply expressed in terras of calories was 29l6O in "developing Africa B" as against a recommended minimum of 2,400 and a figure of 3,110 achieved in developed regions - and all these figures include allowance for losses in store and marketing wastage„ The first - equivalent to 90 per cent of iha minimum energy requirement - remained static throughout

the 1960s- Being an average it does not reveal the considerable unevenness in standards of food consumption between countries and within different socio-economic groups in a single country.

46. „; An indication...regarding the role played by non—protein and non-fat foods in .;

developing countries is given in a survey of the world food situation. Jl/ According to. this.source, the 77 pe~r cent contribution of cereals^ starchy roots and sugar ■ to the total calorie demand: *in 1970 will be reduced to 72 per cent by 1990. By

interpolation one can obtain a figure of 74 per cent for I98O or 1,780 calories in

absolute magnitude-... „:',.■-.'..-..:.-■■.--■— . .. <.'

* .

3./ Agricultural Economics Bulletin for Africa llo0 15, June 1974f

(E/CN.14/AGEEB/15)i, p.16. :J..?. --'- -

1Q/ The State of ;Food'"and" Agriculture 197.^ (Romet FAO, 1973), pp. 176 and 181.

11/ "Most^ references to calorie intake were taken or derived from the

Preliminary assessment of the world food situation present and future

(E/CONF.65/PREP/6), ppo 39r 36C 56 and 63.

Page 12

pg A" this *orkf™t to 1 280 £& a populi^?nv°f 337 million

59 per =ent,o-tl1C-ave:^e calorie intLI inCo° l?/"^^^?^^1" ^ °?

roots-and sugar accounted for around 18 per o I ofij^ WliesVufi starchy

the magnitude of production of starchv IL !T 4°? oalorie^ Considering should be poised be poised out,tiat, in Uest and CentrS ^io= L', ? thl\oo™«ion, it, . ttit i U S ^ L' ? thl\oo™«ion it

-50 and,30^r cent Repeative^ ^SSS^SSR^tff^^

L^Sut^1er:Stio^ tW nu^er

the cereal-calorie relat ion^ip referred 1?' *° l^60' ^iS' couPled w

of 149 kg/year. At this rate, which for the ££'of™ f0'^1 **** P°r P61"8 to the whole region,, 1980 cerkl deLnd in IfrS j^tI ^i"T^ tO

^O. The SSiSSSffi: l^1 "3. OO^ato^^ ^ard?iGeraalS ^

retirement 15/ . Works but at 28 million tons Thlltt lly enerSr, ■

^moderately active adult male of 65 ^weight. ^ re^lre»'e^ refers .to

■ ■ ;

■ J ■ "

M/ The State of Food and A^iniH^. tq^^ Qr>.cit.r p,121e

^or,nn,irs

^.Africa, No.15, 02^^26^

Page 13

( -foot ion, for developing regions

SO. From the FaQ projection for developing regions as a whole, 21/ &*

1Q80 total African (including South Africa) shares of 80 million and 115 mili

tons (including feed and other uses), or 65 million and 92 million tons (representing

gross food) have boen obtained assuming that the same cereal/population relation ship applies to all developing regions. These have been slightly reduced to 77 million and 111 million and 63 million and 89 million tons respectively m the

light of the respective 1970 average calorie intakes (2tl60 for "developing Africa B'

and 2s240 for all developing regions); the 198O tonnages imply additional cereal ■

production of 51 million and 29 million tons. - - ' ■ ■■ ■

(c) fAO^^vjoultvu-al commodity pm-Sections for 1970-1980 . k ■; •■

51. On the basis of another PAD projection, 18/ gross consumption of selected-,-/

cereals in "developing Africa A" is expected to increase from 5&.6 million tons in 1970 to 77.2 million tons in 198O» The latter figure implies additional cereal output of 17.2 million tons by l?80 for Africa less South Africa,

(d)

52. Projections on the basis of supply of cereals is another approach. According to FAOf food supply must increase by 3.9 per cent in order to achieve the objectives of the Second Develops^1-Decade, jfl/ Application of this rate of growth to the 60'miUion tons 1970 cereal output (here assumed to appropriate 1970 regional consumption compared to 56,6 million tons for "developing Africa A") gives 28.0 million tons of additional cereal need by 1980.

(e) ^ereal wnpplv par*capita

53; This is an alternative to the above approach. Cereal supply per

> ^ f fi d eed r0Be from ^SV

e ppy pr pi

toK in 1972. m Extrapolation of this trend gives I89 kg/year for 1980 (nearly the same as the 190 kg per capita direct consumption in all develop ing countries &'Wfo>:-£y resulting in a-"total requirement of 89 million tons of oer;e5.ls for the region*" and therefore an additional production needed over that

of 1970 of 29 million %ons for the region. ... ■

Xil Pr3l_imina:py ARgessment ^.*> oti-cit.w p.55» .. ;; ^; .■ l-i,

Jfi/ J^l^]j^-"^ T^rynnonri.cs -Bulleti,^ for' Africa No.l5« op.cit.t p.26.

2SJ ^q'R+-^e nf Food and Agriculture 1913^ op.cit.e pp.121 and 122.

.20/ Ibi^o

21/ .Preliminary Assessment ---. Qp.cit.> p.lo.

Page 14

54, The additional cereal production requirements resulting from the different approaches range "between 17 million tonsf based on PAD agricultural commodity projections for 1970-1980, and 51 million tons based on the PAO projection for

developing regions. As. the former figure excludes South Afrlcaf the range may be narrowed down to 24- million and 51 million tonst the first representing the approach based on calorie requirements (paragraphs 45-49).

55, The highest and lowest regional demand for cereals (ill million and 77 million tons) give average rates of increase required of 6.4 and 2.6 per centr using the 60 million ton cereal production in 1970 as a base. The other projections, ranging from 3.4 to 4.0 per centr are nearer to the target growth rate of 4.0 per cent in

agricultural production for developing countries as a whole (3.3 per cent agricul tural production and 3.1 per cent crop production for Africa south of the Sahara)

envisaged for the 1970s in FA01s Provisional Indicative World Plan for Agricultural Development (IMF)«

56, In view of the disquieting experience during the first two years of the 1970s and in earlier years, it has been suggested that the IMP objective should be raised

to 5 per cent for the period 1973—1980. 22./ Considering more recent conditions, it

is not unlikely that this may be further revised upwards. In other wordst except for the 6.4 per cent figure,, the derived rates of increase may be considered low.

57° The discrepancy that is bound to arise between the derived rates of growth for

cereals and that of the IWP objective (likely to be raised further) may be explained

partially by. the fact that the latter, comprising agricultural productionr is all- inclusive. Such a discrepancy is notc howeverr expected to be too significant.

According to FA0? "grains predominate so heavily in agricultural production of the developing countries that the objectives proposed for this commodity group are

close to those for agricultural production as a whole". l

58. The additional cereal requirements arrived at above may be secured either by imports or through local production or by a combination of both. If the recent unprecedented high price levels of food are any indication for the futuref the

food import bill and therefore the drain on foreign exchange (resulting in a worsening balance of payments) will be enormous in the first as well as in the second case, and thus additional imports are out of the reach of the majority of African countries* 24/ The alternative, thenE is to produce as much as possible of the food needed locally,.

22/ The State of Food and Agriculture 1973B op.cit., p. 21.

22l/ The State of Food and Agriculture 1973, op«cit.t p.25-

24/ Examples of export prices of some cereals in March 1974 compared to

those in 1971 in $US per ton; wheat (US, f.o.b. Gulf) 62 and 191, maize■ (USP f.o.b, Gulf) 58 and 126 and rice (Thai, f.o,b. Bangkok) 129 and 595 (Preliminary

Assessment so.? op.cit,„ p. 15)« ~ '■

E/CN.14/INR/212

Page 15

59. I-t is unlikely that traditional agricultural methods can produce the additional cereals. Resort should, therefore, be made to technical agricultural inputs. Both

in the short and mthe long term* fertilizers - which are particularly needed for the poor soils found in many areas9 particularly in those drought-stricken areas where the already marginally fertile soil has become eroded and the desert is

advancing southwards, implying the need for intensive cultivation - appear to "be the crucial inputs for raising agricultural productivity provided that suitable weather conditions prevail and that efforts are made towards better management of water resources* In additiont in combination with pesticidesr fertilizers form the

inputs with more prompt responseF a condition so vital in the immediate and near

future.

60« For the purpose of this paper and in view of the need for self-reliance in food supply? it is assumed here that 50 per cent of the increase will be produced by increasing yield,, that isc by more intensive cultivation of existing (1970) cultivated areas, 25J The other 50 per cent is expected to come from improved

technical and commercial services and facilities available to the farmers (other complementary inputs9 better farming practices etc.), reducing waste in all forms and the use of new areas 26/ that will hopefully be brought under cultivation.

In this connexion, it is worth noting that Africa south of the Sahara has been lagging behind all other developing regions in expanding its arable area thereby producing a major shortfall in the production of millet and sorghum, both important crops in the areaB This is a paradox, as Africa accounts for 27«5 Per cent of the

"land reserves", which include unused but potentially productive lapd. Certain limiting factors mainly connected with climate (high as well as low rainfall and high temperatures), inaccessibility of parts of the area and inadequate use of water resources in all forms explain the paradoxt partly if not wholly.

61« The quantities of fertilizers needed to produce half of the additional grain

requirement calculated above have been estimated on the basis of a fertilizer/grain

ratio of 1:80. This ratio was used in the absence of a relationship between fertilizer use and additional grain production which is applicable to the region.

The 1:6 ratio recommended by Allen, 21/ which he himself considered to be onrthe conservative side for the agricultural areas in developing countriesr would result in higher potential demand* Other sources propose a ratio of 1:10 which could have been used= It would, however, result in lower potential fertilizer demand

25/ The 50 per cent figure is based on trial and demonstration experience in Africa, (early 196Os)P USA, Japan and India. See Prospects for the development of

the chemical industry in Africa (E/CN.14/AS/III/22), 1965°

>' -£6/ A very rough indication may be estimated of the order of magnitude of additional cereal that may possibly be obtained from the expansion of arable land.

At the 0.7 per cent per year expansion rate proposed by the IWP, and assuming the 1970 cereal production and arable land relationship to apply? the additional cereal obtainable works out to 4*5 million tons. Because of the latter assumption it is

likely that this quantity is on the low side. .;

Zll George R« Allen, "Confusion in Fertilizers and the World Food Situation", European Chemical News, vol. 26? Noc658 (l8 October 1974): Chemscop - supplement, p.ll.

'Page 16

which rm view of the relatively inefficient fertilizer application in developing coun,tries: coupled with the low levels of the pther inputs which significantly

increase the efficiency of the use of fe? ilizersr would result in lower yield. ■ This does not mean that the existing relatively wasteful use of fertiliser will continue, On the contrary, every effort should be made toward optimum utilization

including improved handling and storing of fertilizers.

62. As is well known, most fertilizers in Africa have been and are being used for

the production of cash crops. Erring on the side' of caution it was assumed that fertilizer demand for cash crops in I98O/198I will be no higher than total

fertilizer consumption in 1970/1971 of 1,63 million tons of nutrients. ifcen added

iolo/iSo«f T 0™ai?e* *°™r th*s g^es the total potential fertilizer demand

in I90O/I95I -shown in table 4.

63. The breakdown by nutrients for regional totals presented in the table was

SSSsRKT* 25: 2°rati0ofuo°:°*63:**'?"***«g

64, From table.4 it is clearthat the regional potential demand for all nutrients

ranges from 2.7. to 42.0-million tons. The lower end of the range is considerably lower than the projected demand of 3,3 million tons. The higher end iray be jst considered as.representing a level of potential demand to be attained some time in

the distant future;, ;. ,: ,• ■ .- ...

65* It. is quite litosly.-.that potential demand'■ in 1980/1981 will lie within the

-

range, probab}^ well towards the lower end, .Considering the present and future serious food problem it appears that,- of the three main approaches- the approach based on food, demand should give more realistic indications of the potential demand

in JijrrLc& '

in

66. Discounting thai.* million ton figure, which implies a low average rate of

growth of 3 = 2 per cent oyer actual 1972/:-J73-consumption, the results obtained range

trom ^1 million to 4°o million tons, which correspond to the 2,400 calories .ge^ capita per day energy .-requirement and-the FAO projection for developing

regions respectivelyr . Based as it is, on the calorie requirement," the lower end of this rang2 may b.e.considered as reflecting the bare minimum of potential demand. 28/

The relatively low use in the region of grains for livestock feed (food accounting for 88 per cent of total cereal demand in 197O)c ®J which implies the need to

£8/ This is in line with PAO thinking. In The State of Food and AgrJcult

JSlAt op,acitog p(. 122P it is stated that "in view of the priority which needs to

be given to calorie requirements, the-production of staples, particularly cereals will be of particular importance during this decadef and most countries of (Africa) have objectives of self-sufficieny in these commodities"* V- * ' #/

23./ Derived from.The'State of Food and Agriculture lQ7.y op.cit.r p. 123i - Per

caEita consumption of cereals of 19O.kgP which almost wholly represented direct ' consumption in developing countriesr contrasts with lc000 kg in North America.

.Only about 70 kg of the latter was consumed directly (Preliminary Assessmftnt..

- op.oit,. p. 16. ., ' : ,. , * I\,r"'*

e/cn. 14/INR/212 Page It

increase the former in order to raise the output of the latter (to increase animal proteS supply -d thereby assure the availability of some of the essential ammo

£iaT™/ supports this statement. H>e use of fertilizers on starchy roots

Ufrica'lccounting for around 14 per cent of world output - see annex IE) and other food crop! su^h al pulses not amounted for in the estimates, and increased use of fertilizers on tr^dSional export commodities, would provide further confirmation.

£other words, potential demand could reach the 5 million ton level (nearly the

hign end 0? the Love range) *• 1980/198*. For ?^*\^°eee'^^lon potential demand has been assumed to be within the 3.4 million - 5.0 million ton

range, the lower end teing the projection on the oasis of cereal supply ner cagita,.

?ne new rtoge is compared with the projected "effective demand" shown in the

last line of the same table.

67. In view of the limited technology currently in use in the region, which results

in low levels of productivity in agriculture, bringing additional "^^T

cultivation during the period up to I98O may not be indispensable. It i

that 111 the additional cereals can be obtained by intensive cultivation of

existing farm areas. This, naturally, implies considerably higher use of

fertilizers.;

* ■

■

a i -

C ■:

-

■ r.

30/ According to Heat Engineering, vol. XXXXVIC. No.10 (November-December 1974). published by the Foster Wheeler Corporation,. Livingston, N.J.t African average TiercaEita consumption of protein is 61 gm/day. This compares with FAO's figure of 56*3 in 1970 for "developing Africa B«. The former comprisesJOgm of ^ vegetable and 11 gm of animal protein, the corresponding figures for Rorth America being 27.3 and 65-.7 gm. In this connexion it should be noted that, according to recent thinkingB the above tier capita protein consumptions are about 2.5 times the average requirement of a moderately active adult male..

■ 1

—.

". ■ ^{■ ■}

E/CN.14/IHH/212

Page ■■!$

III- MANUFACTURING" FACILITIFS

Jw^ Subrefjonal totals of *to capacities in the annex are summarized in table "5

where ammonia figures have teen converted into their jr equivaients> J, from

"ofinEanrsu^Phate "nd Ca+l0rd Ph°SPhate TOk PlBntsiexisti^.S unle^ co^truc-

tion in all subregions except Southern Africa) has been includd 3l/ Th

ofinansu^Pate "nd Ca+l0rd Ph°SPhate TOk PlBntsiexisti^.S unle^ co^tr

tion in all subregions except Southern Africa) has been included. 3l/ They are

compared with the corresponding projected demand levels from table 3. The apparent excesses of capacity over projected demand for N and P20. are enormous. Indeed as

provision has not been made for single superphosphate in5Southern Africa and as ground rock phosphate is not included, the total P^ surpluses should be hi^er.

*! lE\' h0wever' douM^l that such huge excesses will materialize. Firstly.

;M \,respect to potash'the oni-^ «i»i»«r 2S iS»i

the Congo) has been experiencing difficulties in reaching 31/ Single superphosphate producing units not included in annex IF:

West Africa - Nigeria: 100f0C0 tons equivalent to 20,000 tons Po0c - Ivory Coast: 6,000 tons equivalent to lt000 tons P^

Central Africa - Cameroon: 20,000 tons equivalent to 4,000 tons P,,0^

Eastern Africa - Uganda: 26,500 tons equivalent to 5,500 tons Pp0 '"

,. - Rhodesia: 50,000 tons e^ivalent to 9,500 tons P (P

Worth Africa - Egypt: 500,000 tons equivalent to 75,000 tons V?Z

■ ■■■-■■ - Algeria: 130,000 tons equivalent to 25,000 tons P 0 - Morocco: 150,000 tons equivalent to 24,000 tons P2O5 - Tunisia: 60,000 tons equivalent to 11,000 tonsP205

1 2 5

Calcined phosphate rock producing units not included in annex IF:

North Africa - Morocco: 100,000 tons equivalent to 28,000 tons P 0 - Tunisia: 150,000 tons equivalent to 37,000 tons P2O5

!£/ Chemical Engineering. 24 June 1974, p. 98" I.

W Review of current market situation, trends and prospects for fertilizer

supplies and prices, op, pit., p. ^q. E

-■-■■ Production/demandgabof.fertilizersbysubregionandnutrienttype.fr?nnn

o P-DP-P&CP-DDP-DP-PD

1 759 3 594: 2 777 1 0X8* 127 -■ 1 100 .3 933 3-15"! 2 .051 1 131 -• .460 500 -"400 ■ -60 -280

WestAfrica99-99....:;48.37':-50-50 CentralAfricar-72!■3P-243b500400:370 sternAfrica11992:-155 IforthAfrica902272021001198 SouthernAfrica439755" '■ j-'« Ji ?-^i. k. ."If".. it. *

D C P P ■

ssDeraand m.Capacity .m;Production B«PotentialDemand • ■!

- ■

:1646248-11673-73 836

2:769 2 220^2 224 (^

307 1,046:■;480 ; ■- ,; .a•■

-307 >-:.'Zi■•*■:--■ U li■■/.■--«;"■■'_ c :*£■- «h■■■. ■■■■£' © ■B

■■•+ "»-i -3<V ;r ;■*-■. li:':: ■c'- -L' ■■-..- O J-T1

1-■if ,-tfl .-■:-'U

H :,

E/CH.14/IKR/212

Page 20

capacity utilization, mainly because of the undulating nature of the mine. Unless solution to this problem is found and/or other potash deposits, such as those in

!Ta Te 6?>1;ted Afrl hih 1 i

/ p eposits, such as those in

a

h!™Ta' Te 6?>1+;ted: AfrlCa' Whi0h 1S currently almost self-sufficieni, may soon

have to return to the status of net importer of potash.

Ifl JhlTAlyt th6re iS,? distinct Possibility that certain projects will have to be

discounted as some of them may not be implemented. In addition to possible delays changes of plan, re-setting of priorities, etc., and allowing for a "certain margin of inaccuracy in the estimated capacities (double counting of projects for instance), the longer lead time arising partly from advance commitments by engineering arid

construction firms and the consequent likelihood of worsening bottle-necks cannot be

ienoredD ignored*

73. In spite of these unfavourable factors and constraints, it maybe expected that the region will considerable improve its position as a net exporter of p 0 (phos phoric acid andpbeephate fertilizers) and drastically reduce the share ^imports in its consumption - or perhaps even become a net exporter of ammonia in the 1970s.

These possibilities are indicated by the large excesses of effective output over demand. Effective production figures represent 70 per cent of the nominal capacities

for N and P20 and 80 per cent for K 0. 34/ r 1

74- The future of potash is gloomy. Africa, which in 197l/l972 for the first time became self-sufficient, is likely to revert to its former position of a net importer soon. If the capacity of the potash refinery in the Congo is 300,000 tons K 0, as reported by FAO, 35/ instead of the 500,000 tons ^indicated in table: 5, the-region must already have become a net Importer. Towards the end of the decade the production/

consumption gap of 60,000 tons K20 shown in table 5 should increase to .over 160,000 tone K20. This situation could be avoided if decisions and measures are taken promptly to exploit other potash deposits in the region (see annex V").

75- On the basis of the data in table 5, about 39 per cent of the P.O. and 63 per cent of the N capacities would be needed to meet the projected demand- in 1980/198I. In the case of N, this would "be equivalent to discotarting five out of the seven 1,000 ton- per-day or larger ammonia projects listed as "probable" in annex IF. Put another way, implementation of the relatively committed projects - Algeria 3^0,000 tons (contract' awarded), Libya 330,000 tons (construction due to have started mid-1974), Fgypt 110,000 tons (under construction in 1974) and Fgypt 330,000 tons (agreement for equipment

supply signed in 1974) - would bring production to the level of estimated consumption.

In brief, it is likely that the region as a whole will, at least, be self-sufficient

in N. I I

76. When considered at the subregional level, the conclusion in the last paragraph applies to two (North and Fouthem) out of the five subregions. Fxcept for potash, Forth and Southern Africa are expected to show considerable surpluses. The remaining subregions - excluding Central Africa with a large surplus of potash - should be in

the red for all three nutrients.

34/ Nominal capacity hero refers to annual capacity obtained by multiplying

daily capacity by 365 days or annual capacity by 365/330. The last assumes* that the capacities in annex IP were arrived at on the basis of 330 working days.

ftevieN of CTirmnt market gituation. trends and prospects for fertilizer

BttpplieB_and_pricesr op. cit.. p0 35. 1

E/CN.14/IHR/212

Page 21

77. If potential demand were taken as a basis,the positive differences between

productive capability and demand would naturally be--adversely affected. On the basis

of the higher end of the potential demand range they"are drastically reduced (see

table 5). From- the relatively low gap in N and negative gap in Y^Q it is apparent that dn view, of the factors referred -to earlier and hon^fertilizer use for ammonia for which no provision has been made, additional capacities may be needed to bridge the gap between the N and KgO supply and potential demand.

IV. FACTORS FOR AUD AGAIUST DEVELOPMENT

78. i The conclusion that must be drawn from the orders of magnitude of the production/

.demand1 gs.ps in table 5 and the factors referred to that would further.widen the d&ps. is that urgent priority should be.accorded to the three subregions.of West, Central and Eastern Africa in the field of agricultural chemicals.; As recent events have shown, these subregions (the Sudano-Sahelian zone from the beginning o^. the

second half of the 1960s, Ethiopia etc.) are vulnerable to the vagaries of the

weather, which has caused the continuing devastating drought, and to fluctuations in BUT)--]i-s of agricultural ir.puto. Their inhabitants have oooomo increasingly, dependent oninpbrts of foodstuffs. Some are. uudarnourishod, while others arc -relatively mal- nourished, cc the staple food of iaany of /then is. based on lo^r.utritiar^l-valuc starchy roots, (plantains and tuberr). If" these people are to survive, and if the incidence of nufriti-r&l deficiency -ic-to'bt reduced, uuctr needs to be done in terns of growing,: . their foea r^-edTlocally; ac ;-ost African'countries- will not have enough foreign ex change" to pay an ononaouo.food inport bill... Besides, there is no gur.r^ee. tl^t there will always tfbf cereal^for import. ^ .7 . . , r ■ - ..- ■--.■■ uh i

79» ■■: As sta*ea:-eaflier, intensive cultivation, that is, the appropriate use o£_ -, agricultural chemical^ is the fast way to achieve the objective of making sufficient

■ food-available^ prides the people can afford. The question here is.how to;make . fertilizers available to the"farmer at remunerative prices resulting.Jfa sufficiently attractive returns. Gone are the days, it seems, when fertilizers were cheap, and easily available. Even if prices were to ease (something which has already occurred;

and if supply and demand were to balance - as may possibly be the case due to a cyclical peak in production capacity some years hence » it is no more certain than in the case of food icroorts that most African countries would be able to. find sufficient foreign exchange to p~} the import bill for fertilizers in sufficient quantities to produce their food requirements. Meeting the 9 and P 0 production gaps of the three sub^

regions might "work .out to-SOS 380 million at 1§74 prioes .^average c. i.f. values m + October 1974>';in 1980," inthe long term, therefore, th'e remedy lies in developing the fertilizer industry within the region itself," TKis is*in line with Economic and

Social Couiicil resolution 1836(LVl) in paragraph^ of which the .Council--purged/ the international :coiKnunityr and especially the developed countries, to give .the necessary capital and xechnical^ssistance to developing countries in order to Process their own raw materials into semi-finished and finished fertilizer products".37/.-The resolution was subsequently endorsed by the Council of FAO in its resolution 1/63 m July 1974-

W*"ft has been reported that world prices of some fertilizers (MP). say start to decline by early 1976. It is, however, not expected that ammonia will sell below

&US. 100 per ton in early 1976^in the- United States European Chemicaljgggi ™lr '

No*

E/RES/1836 ( LVl

ggasures

) ■

in regard to +h* mi^ly of fertilizers and pesticides,

Page 22

in a number cf reoomjndations and rfsoLtxons W has rff^1 pr°ducti°«. » expressed

industry is concerned rp~i^ +h« I, W ' as far as the fertilizer

This- being the case it noTr^ains to LeamfneantheSUPP°rt f ^ internati°»al community.

n,ent of the fertiliser indust^i" "utr™! ™ ^^ ^ d6VelOp-

Factors impeding developinfint

■HE

future U to

enterprise 40/ responsible fo^ the "tting up and 38/ The many references to sovereignty over natural resources on +he

processing of raw materials, access to markets, transfer of t chn ™ ^

= developing ccuntries. etc, were among the desires^ v^c d°b" L I

i' ^^ation <* the declaration and the

a New Intemational Fconomi r fw^P1,.—p^tr_{l —^tr} 7^ ;

delegations during the sixth special session II ZoZTrli Assemb y W&f Add 1). More recently, these same desires were express^1y th ^1 C

wI,(T r + implementation of the Programme of Action on the Establishment of a

New International Economic Order, adopted in February 1975. lament

Ac=ordi*e to P. Wuithier of the Institut Pran5ais du Petrole - BFICIP

+h. J^ Jf l^ With the latest linking of FCA member States. Part of ti^te ^t "G EC^^— -solution on investment promotion and induSriaL

xxon states that noo multinational co-operation is the most effective instrument for

creating large-scale, import-substituting and export-promoting industries"!

E/GN.U/lHR/212 Page 2?

operation Of ammonia and should Do

and finished

Saaa

processing

Factors "

re'

acid) to supply

y to countries, Where

products

that the offers

S

outside the

:

^processes

gard'to sulphur, a'deficit is anticipated in 1980.

of the above shortfalls and as a result of the

of laidfecefer 1974)^s over ^ 10

I7"Redncin«JertiliSer_costs (United Nations publication, Sales He. E.74.II.B.5),

gws, vol. 27, No. 674 (14 February 1975), P- W.

at $US 0,82 per million Btu«

-

Page 24

~±"-v—' ■■•yr

from fiUS 14.17 d!pZ , ^ +i- i77 P Cent b°ne PhosPh^e of

immmm

roe. in Central Africa ^ potash

mwmmwms- ^mmwms

region may be obtained fron, price indices: ■*-="«* applicable to the

1212 1221 1222 " i2Ii

100.0 101.1 107.8 117.0 to

to Part I

>1

Petroleum 100.0 II5.0 129.5 1?8.7

et Travaux d'Outre-mer. No. 253 (decembre 1974), p. 1060.