Strong Inflation, Supply Issues and New Pandemic Fears: Major Uncertainties Heading into 2022

Implications for the implementation of the inflation forecast targeting (IFT) strategy refer that projection of core inflation can be a typical operational tool

So, we agree with the idea of Ravenna (2002), who proves a structural break between the time of monetary policy shift and inflation targeting. Indeed, he explains that

To this end, we analyse for each of our different samples (experimental, survey, financial market and central bank data) whether forecast errors are significant

there is no evidence that the approximate inflation symmetry of the network plays any role in the formation of commensurate states. Although higher order states are fairly weak,

Finally, the calculation of the forecast evaluation statistics year by year allows us to observe that the bias adjusted forecasts do not surpass the analysts’ forecasts in

Whereas their recommendation is that the State should provide pledgeable income to private agents to reach the optimal level of production, I show that monetary policy is a simple

We shall now move to interest rate rules that are functions of inflation (current or expected) only, and we shall see that optimal interest rates will depend on inflation simply

In sum, because IT is associated to a greater PT when the oil price falls, there is an almost symmetric impact of oil price changes on inflation in these countries. For instance,