Global Trends in Lifespan Inequality: 1950-2015.
IÑAKI PERMANYER [email protected]
Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics . Universitat Aut. de Barcelona
NATHALIE SCHOLL [email protected]
Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics. Universitat Aut. de Barcelona.
5. Global lifespan inequality and its components
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
CA
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
EAP
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
HIC
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
LAC
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
MENA
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
SA
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
SSH
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
SSH-HIV
0.05.1.15.2normalized number of deaths
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
World
1950-55 1970-75 1990-95 2010-15
1. Motivation
• Understanding of the present and future dynamics in human mortality
‘mortality compression’ (convergence towards a single upper limit age at death) and ‘shifting’ (distribution-neutral shift with increasing life expectany) hypotheses
• Uncertainty associated with larger lifespan inequality affects beliefs and behavior
• Study overall, adult and elderly mortality separately.
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𝑎𝑎 2This paper is part of the project Equalizing or disequalizing? Opposing socio-demographic determinants of the spatial distribution of welfare (EQUALIZE) that has received
funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC-2014-STG-grant agreement No 637768)
.05.10 .15.2 .25
GLI
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
year
Complete lifespanTheil index
0 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05
GLI
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
year
Lifespan above 15
0 .002 .004 .006
GLI
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
year
Lifespan above 65
0 200 400600 800 1000
GLI
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
year
Complete lifespanVariance
0 100 200 300 400
GLI
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
year
Lifespan above 15
0 20 40 60 80
GLI
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
year
Lifespan above 65
Overall (worldwide) Within-country Between-country
4. Lifespan inequality and longevity within countries
2. Age at death around the world
Data:
• Abridged life tables from the UN WPP (ages 0-100)
• Full population, adult population (15+), elderly population (65+).
• Time span: 1950-2015 in 5-year intervals, 195 countries
Graph: Changing distribution of deaths across regions of the world “mortality compression” or“shifting”?
• Df
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Inequality
20 40 60 80
Life expectancy at birth Complete lifespanTheil Index
0 .02 .04 .06 .08
Inequality
50 60 70 80 90
Mean length of life above 15 Lifespan above 15
.002 .003 .004 .005 .006 .007
Inequality
70 75 80 85 90
Mean length of life above 65 Lifespan above 65
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Inequality
20 40 60 80
Life expectancy at birth Complete lifespanVariance
100 200 300 400 500
Inequality
50 60 70 80 90
Mean length of life above 15 Lifespan above 15
20 40 60 80 100
Inequality
70 75 80 85 90
Mean length of life above 65 Lifespan above 65
South Asia East Asia & Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Central Asia
Middle East & North Africa Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa High HIV High Income
6. Conclusions
• There has been a sustained decline in overall lifespan inequality
• Adult lifespan variability has also declined, but some plateaus and trend reversals have been identified
• Lifespan inequality among the elderly has increased virtually everywhere
• Most of the world variability in age-at-death can be attributed to within-country variability (around 90%)
• Our analyses suggest that the world seems to be facing a new
challenge: the emergence of diverging trends in longevity and age-at-death inequality among the elderly around the globe.
• As larger fractions of the world population survive to more
advanced ages, it will be necessary that national and international health planners recognize the growing heterogeneity that
characterizes older populations.
3. Measuring and decomposing length of life inequality
Inequality measures
Relative: Theil index Absolute: Variance
These two measures are additively decomposable into a within- and a between-country component
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