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Real-time prediction of severe influenza epidemics using Extreme Value Statistics

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Academic year: 2021

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Figure

Figure 1: Weekly ILI incidence rates in metropolitan France from January 1985 to Febru- Febru-ary 2019
Table 4: Quantiles of the estimated negative log-likelihood.
Figure 4: Prediction probabilities of level exceedances for the 1985–2019 ILI incidence rates obtained from the Gumbel model and from logistic regression using a leave-one-out procedure
Figure 5 shows boxplots of the prediction probabilities for the GP prediction for Week 3 ILI incidence rates and epidemic sizes for the four levels (κ = 0.5, 0.75, 0.95, 1)
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