IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE ON RESOURCE UTILIZATION AND SOCIAL SECURITY
IN RELATION TO POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN ECA MEMBER STATES
ixion Division moer 1994
■o;
United Nations iconomic Commission
for Africa
IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE ON RESOURCE UTILIZATION AND SOCIAL SECURITY
IN RELATION TO POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN ECA MEMBER STATES
Population Division December 1994
United Nations Economic Commission
for Africa
Page
I. Introduction 1
1.1 The Concern, Scope and Coverage of the Study . . . . 1 1.2 Objectives and Rationale of the Study 6
1.2.1 Objectives of the Study , 6
1.2.2 Rationale and Scope of the study 7
1.3 Source of Data of the study 8
1.4 Organization of the study 9
II. Analysis of Demographic Dynamics and Population Age Structure in the Context o Demographic
Transition in ECA Member States 10
2.1 Some theoretical consideration 10
2.2 Fertility and Mortality Levels, Trends and
Differentials in the ECA Member States 12 2.3 Timing of Initiation of Fertility Decline
and Responses of the African Age Structure .... 16 2.4 Age/sex Specific Growth Rates and Age
Patterns of Sex Ratios of African Populations
and Their Implications 22
III. Perceptions and Policies on the Population Age Structure, Demographic Dynamics and Social
Security Provisions in ECA Member States 28 3.1 Responses to the Implications of Population
Age Structure and Demographic Dynamics 29 3.2 The Demographic Relevance of Social Security
Provisions in ECA Member States 34
IV. Consequences of Population Age Structure on Poverty Alleviation with Reference to Employment Opportunities and Food Resources
in ECA Member States 43
on Employment opportunities 45 4.2 Consequences of Population Age Structure
on Food Resources 57
V. Conclusion and Recommendations- 69
5.1 Conclusion 69
5.2 Recommendations 72
Annex A Age Specific Growth Rates and Age Patterns of Sex Ratios for Africa and the Five
Sub-Regions • • 77
Annex B Summary of Some Indicators of Food Security Situation in Selected ECA
Member States (1988-90) 83
Reference
Utilization and Social Security in Relation to Poverty Alleviation in EGA M»mh»r states.
I. Introduction
i-l The concern. Scope and coverage of the Study
1. Until the past recent years, the implications of demographic variables on resource utilization have been focused utmost on Macro-level. In that case, population size and aggregated output (i.e. Gross Domestic Product - GDP) were considered as denominator and numerator, respectively, in computing per capita income output, which used to be the sole indicator of the level of development.
Such consideration could have been dictated, possibly, by the availability of data at aggregate level and perhaps, the simplicity in explaining the policy implications of per capita income or output in development planning strategies.
2. Besides the Macro-level consideration of population and resource utilization, the traditional approach to investigating demographic implications was used to be among the demographic variables themselves, such as population size, age/sex compositions and the dynamic components of population change. Later, it was recognized that aggregate consideration conceals the internal variations in the demographic growth and structure and their implications, not only among themselves, but also on the utilization of sectoral resources.
3. Analysis of the implications of population age structure calls for a convenient classification of the whole structural features into different functional age/sex groups according to the levels, patterns and trends of growth rates and their corresponding social and economic requirements such as employment, nutrition, education, hous ing, health, etc.
analysis has gone far into in-depth investigation of the positive or negative correlations between demographic variables and socio-
economic and other variables. In this case, population has been treated either exogenously or endogenously or both.5. In the new approach, the need to investigate the reciprocal
relationship between the population system and the socio-economic
and other systems was formally recommended first by the 1974Bucharest World Population Plan of Action1 by defining .certain
theoretical frameworks. The components of the study were recommended to include the following:a. the need to investigate the implications of population variables on economic, social and political life of a
society;
b. analysis of the impact of socio-economic, biological,
socio-psychological, socio-cultural and environmental factors on the components of population change; andc. investigation of the interrelationship between population factors and the socio-economic and other environmental
variables.
6. Similarly, the 1984 Mexico International Population Conference2, the 1984 Kilimanjaro African Population Conference3
UN, world Population Conference. 1974. Bucharest, 19-3 0 Aug. 1974, pp. 29-30, 34-43.
Un, Report of the international Conference on Population,
1984. Mexico city, 6-14 Aug. 1984 p. 10, 14, 52.ECA Kilimanjaro Programme of Action for—African
Population and Self-Reliant Development, Arusha, Tanzania, 9-13 Jan.1984 (Report of the Second African Population Conference), pp. 2-8.International and Continental recommendations which elaborated and re-inforced the previous recommendations regarding population and development interrelationships.
7. Subsequent to the Mexico and Arusha population conferences and in accordance with the recommendations, the UN conducted series of population inquiries, among which was the sixth population
inquiry5. This inquiry was designed to assess the perceptions and
policies on demographic levels and trends in relation to development efforts by different Governments of UN member states and see if there had been any changes since the 1974 Bucharest World Population Conference. Consequently, the global responses to the inquiry generally indicated that about 50 percent of the surveyed countries (108) responded that their current population age structure and the level of population growth rates were unsatisfactory.6
8. With respect to "Social security" issues, the traditional bulwark against "poverty"7 was the support of the family, or the
4 ECA, pakar/Naor Declaration of Population. Family and Sustainable Development. Third African Population Conference, Dakar, Senegal, 7-12 Sept. 1992, p. 12 No.
10.
5 UN, Results of the Sixth Population Inquiry Among
Governments. Population Policy Paper No. 31, New York, 1990. (See Questionnaire, pp. 155-197)
6 Ibid, p. 8 and 11
7 Refer to the following Texts for the Concepts.
Definitions and Measures of Poverty:
a) Gerry Rodgers, Poverty and Population: Approaches and Evidence. ILO, Geneva, 1984, pp. 1-7.
b) ESCAP, Frameworks for Population and Development Integration. Asian Population Studies Series, No 92, Bangkok Thailand, June 1988, pp. 53-70.
generation accepting the duty of caring for the elderly and for the weaker brethren; religious foundations provided shelter, sanctuary and alms; medieval trade guilds supported members and their
families in times of adversity.8
9. After the "Industrial Revolution", which brought about fundamental change in the means of production and production relation, especially in Europe and North America, the intensive industrialization process led to urbanization. This phenomenon gave way to a gradual movement away from the pastoral mode of life and subsistence economies to market economy. The various formsi of protections, which were rooted in history and tradition, wer«
unable to cope up with the new way of urban life and needed different forms of social security to be established in the new situation.
10. In the modern times, the concept of "Social Security" has gained a wider usage and interpretation in many countries of the world than in others. However, the fundamental notion of social security has been taken to mean the protection which society provides for its citizens through the means of public measures, as a bulwark against the economic and social distress which otherwise would be caused by the stoppage or substantial reduction of earnings as the result of sickness, old age, unemployment, maternity, employment injury, invalidity and death including
c) World Bank, making adjustment work for the poor:
Framework for Policy Reform in Africa. Washington
D.C., U.S.A., 1991, pp. 49-50.
ILO, Introduction to Social Security, Geneva, 1984 (Third
Edition), pp. 1-2.
families with children.9
11. Accordingly, various forms of protection programmes, such as social insurance, social assistance, benefits financed by general revenue (benefits covering pensions, invalid, orphanhood, public health, etc.) welfare services (family benefits, employers■
compulsory liability schemes, etc.) provident fund provisions and other ancillary and complementary programmes,I0were instituted.
12. The main social security benefits provided by EGA member states include social insurance schemes of various types; provident funds for various forms of social insecurity and employer liability schemes for sickness, employment injury, etc.11 In the light of the available data in the ECA member states, some of these provisions will be elaborated in the study and their relevance to the demographic situation will be examined.
9 Ibid. P. 3. Further reference could be made to the same text for the "Types of Social Security". "Historical Problems, "Spread of Social Security.etc. . pp. v-vi, and pp. 1-10.
10 Further reference could be made for the concepts and historical developments of each scheme to the following
text:
African Centre for applied Research and Training in Social Development ( ACARTSOD ), Research Series No 2. ACARTSOD, 1986, pp. 1-10.
11 ECA, Study on social security system and National Development in Africa, An Agenda for the 1990's.
paper presented at the seventh session of the joint conference of African Planners, Statisticians and Demographers, Addis Ababa, 2-7 march 1992, pp. 1-
10.
1.2.1 Objectives of the Study
13. The general objectives the study include the analysis of the underlying implications of population age structure on the utilization of resources as the ECA member states strive to alleviate poverty. The study also assesses the availability of social security provisions focusing on their demographic
relevances.
14. Specifically, the study will attain the following objectives:
i)
ii)
iii)
to examine the general levels and trends of fertility, mortality and the demographic growth rates and status of demographic transition in the
ECA member states;
to assess the perceptions of population age structure and its dynamics by the ECA member
states, as related to the social and economic
development;
to analyze the status of employment and food security situation in the ECA member states with
respect to population age structure;
iv) to examine the demographic relevance of types of Social Security schemes in the ECA member states;
1.2.2 Rationale and Scope of the study
15. With regard to the scope of the study, the implication of the
population age structure on resource utilization consider two
sectoral resources: Employment and food. In the case of social
security, the study will concentrate on the schemes which appear topensions, family allowance, unemployment benefit, and maternity grants including child benefit which have been channelled through either social insurance schemes, provident funds or employer's
liability schemes.
16. In the light of available data, the study attempts to cover all ECA member states as systematically regionalized and the data being conveniently grouped. However, certain countries will be selected for illustrations when dealing with the assessment of Social Security situations and status of employment and food resources in the ECA member states.
17. Consequently, the paper identified two critical sectoral problems, namely, employment and food resources and the status 6 social security provisions which call for priority considerations and hence selected for the study.
18. The rationale for selecting the two sectors and social security include the followings:
a. employment and food resources are the most decisive determinants of our livelihood and survival;
b. the question of unemployment and inadequacy of food supply, being outstripped by the pace of demographic growth, has remained unresolved issue - becoming the most crucial Africa's number one problem of the century;
c. according to the author's general assessments of the implications of population age structure on resources utilization, there had been little systematic and in- depth treatments between the population age structure and the employment and food resources and social security situations;
state of employment and food availability, which in turn, are influenced by the population age structure;
e. the issue of social security is closely linked with the employment situation as well as the demographic factors;
f. the paper will aim at providing some insight for further research to fill the gap in knowledge, data requirements and methodological issues such as analysis, and evaluation pertaining to the relationship between the population age structure and employment and food resources and social security status.
1.3 Source of Data of the study
19. The sources of data for the analysis will be the results obtained from censuses, demographic and labour force surveys etc.
as evaluated and adjusted by the respective member states in collaboration with international organizations. For the likely trends of the demographic dynamics and the resultant effects of population growth rates and age structure, use will be made of the UN estimates which were extrapolated based on certain assumptions of the likely demographic courses. Wherever necessary, references will be made to the median variant estimates of the UN population projections.
1.4 Organization of the study
20. The study is organized under five main sections including the introductory section. The second section deals with the population age structure and demographic dynamics in relation to the demographic transition theory. It attempts to examine if the African demographic situation tends to approach to the demographic transition phenomenon, whether it causes any change in the patterns of the population age structure and explains the underlying
II. Analysis of Demographic Dynamics and Population Age Structure (in the Context of Demographic Transition) in EGA Member states.
2.l introduction
21. The Population age setting is the direct result of the levels, patterns and trends of fertility, mortality and migration factors.
The interplay of these dynamic components results in building-up a certain profile of population age structure.
22. Empirical evidence shows that fertility and mortality changes in determining the structure of population age composition have been influenced by level of socio-economic development. In the process, the human population passes through different stages of demographic changes, including age structure.
23. Empirical data show that a decline in fertility and in mortality tends to raise the effects of changing the age structure of the population.
24. The Typical sequence of a demographic transition is a shift from high levels of both fertility and mortality to low levels of the same variables. We note that such a shift has a consequence in the age structure of a population; changing the age pattern from young to an old age distribution. If the levels of fertility and mortality remain high, the age distribution tends to be dominated by young age population. In this case, there does not appear to be any systematic decline in the course of fertility and mortality trends12 unless the population encounters with occasional perturbations being caused by serious catastrophic events such as war, drought, famine or large migration.
12 Samuel H. Preston and Ansely J. Coale: Age Structure,
Growth, Attrition and Accession: A New Synthesis, Population Index. 1982, Vol. 48, No. 2, p. 218.African Governments on certain demographic factors as they relate
to socio-economic development programmes within context of scarce resources. It also assesses the status of social security schemesin relation to population age structure and demographic dynamics.
The implications of population age structure on employment opportunities and food resources are analyzed in section four.
Finally, section five draws the salient features of the study and
gives some recommendations.
25. Empirical evidence shows that African population has recently been experiencing a decline in mortality. This phenomenon is believed to induce the growth of the population at all ages. With a persistingly high fertility levels, the increase in the number of young children (i.e. under 15) would be more pronounced. Besides,
improvement in health conditions which causes mortality to decline, reduces sterility, miscarriages and periods of postpartum amenorrhoea. Also, the decline in adult mortality reduces the prevalence of widowhood in the childbearing ages.
26. After the initiation of mortality decline and under a certain threshold level of development, there follows a decline in fertility, causing reduction in child population and an increase in the proportion of the old age. In general, fertility - dominated decline tends to produce an aging population whereas a mortality- dominated decline produces young-age dominating population. Thus, the initiation of fertility decline is a turning point to demographic transition which changes the population growth rate from a rising to a falling trend.
27. It is against this background that we examine the fertility and mortality levels and trends of the African population and population age structure in the stages of structural transformation
in EGA member States.
2.2 Fertility and Mortality Levels. Trends and Differentials in
the ECR Mamhar States
28. The fertility level, as measured by crude birth rate (CBR) is shown in Table 2.1. This table indicates that fertility level of the African countries has remained very high, around 44 births per thousand population per year during 1990's compared to 3 0 for the less developed countries and about 14 for more advanced countries of the world.
29. At sub-regional, the fertility levels, ranged between 32 in Southern Africa and as high as about 48 for Eastern African countries. It is interesting to note that there exists significant variations in the level of fertility between sub-saharan African countries and the remander of African countries, namely north of the Sahara and the Southern African Countries. In 1990, the CBR for the former countries, was estimated to range between 46 and 48 and for the latter ones it ranged between 32 and 34 births per thousand population.
30. Although it is projected that by the year 2025, CBR would likely decline to as low as 21 in Northern sub-region , the African fertility level would remain high for the coming two-three decades prior to the yesr 2025.
Table 2.1 Estimates of Crude Birth Rates bv Major Areas and the Sub-Regions of ECA Member State (1950.1970,1990 and 2025)
Major Areas More Developed Less Developed Africa
Eastern Northern Middle Southern Western
1950
22.6 44.7 49.2 50.8 48.9 46.3 43.7 50.4
1970
16.7 37.2 46.8 49.0 43.0 46.7 40.4 49.2
1990
14.2 29.4 43.5 47.5 34.3 46.3 32.2 46.0
2025
11.9 19.1 28.6 31.4 20.5 31.9 19.7 30.7
Source:fa) UN, World Population Prospects 1990. Population Studies No. 120, New York, 1991, pp. 228-243.
(b) UN, World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revision Annex Tables pp. 144-145.
31. With respect to mortality level, Table 2.2 presents the indices of mortarity. As expected, mortality has been declining in African Countries, from high level of about 27 crude death rate (CDR) per thousand population in 1950 to about 13 per thousand trend by 1990. There appears clear variations in the level of mortality decline among the five sub-regions. For Eastern, Middle and Western sub-regions, mortality levels declined from about CDR of 28 in 1950 to about 15 or 16 by 1990. For the relatively lower mortality sub-regions, mainly Northern and Southern sub-regions, CDR declined from about 25 in 1950 to about 9 by 1990.
32. From Table 2.2, it can be understood that the mortality decline in the continent of Africa appears to be relatively fast and it has been projected to reach as low as 7 deaths per thousand population per year by 2 025, which would be lower than the mortality level of the more developed societies, manifesting the effect of age structure differences between the African and the more developed societies on this index of mortality.
Table 2.2 Estimates of Crude Death Rates bv Manor Areas and the Sub-Regions of ECA Member States
(1950.1970,1990 and 20251
Major Areas More Developed Less Developed Africa
Eastern Northern Middle Southern Western
1950
10.1 24.3 26.9 28.1 24.7 28.2 20.9 28.3
1970
9.3 13.2 19.2 20.1 16.6 20.7 14.3 21.1
1990
9.7 9.1 13.2 16.4 9.3 15.3 8.7 15.0
2025
10.4 7.1 7.1 7.4 6.0 6.9 6.0 7.7
Source: UN, World Population Prospects 1990. Population studies No. 120, New York, 1991, pp. 228-243.
33. As a direct Consequence of the decline in mortality levels, the life expectancy at birth appears to. have been increasing, especially for the ECA member states. However, the eo is still low as compared with the more developed countries. While it.was about 66 years for the more-developed societies in 1950, it was as low as about 38 years for Africa. Even after the subsequent four decades (i.e. in 1990) , the life expectancy of the African countries,
though it had since increased by about 40 percent, it was still
about 53 years as compared with about. 75 years for the advancedsocieties (see Table 2.3).
34.The estimates of life expectancy at birth among the five sub- regions of the ECA member states are presented in Table 2.3. It ranged in 1950 from about 3 6 years to 50., years in Eastern and Western sub-regions and from about 42 or 44 to about 61 or 63 years
in Northern and Southern sub-regions by 1990. As shown in the
table, the improvement in the eo, is increasing fast in the two sub-regions of Northern and southern where health conditions are approaching to those of the advanced societies.Table 2 3 Estimates of life Expectancy-bv Manor Areas Including for Sub-Reaions of ECA Member State(1950■1970.1990 and 2025)
Major Areas More Developed Less Developed Africa
Eastern Northern Middle
Southern Western
1950
66.0 40.7 37.7(39.1) 32.2(37.8) 41.7(42.8) 36.0(37.6) 44.2(45.3) 35.6(37.1)
1970 71.1 54.4 46.1(47.7) 44.8(46.4) 51.1(52.4) 43.9(45.6) 53.4(56.3) 43.3(44.8)
1990 74.6 62.4 53.1(54.6) 49.0(50.4) 61.0(62.3) 51.0(52.7) 62.5(65.4) 51.1(52.8)
2025 78.6 71.2 65.6(67.4) 63.6(65.4) 71.1(72.9) 65.4(67.1) 72.5(75.2) 63.4(65.2)
Note: Figures in the parentheses are for females.
Source: a.
b.
UN, World Population Prospects 1990, Population Studies, No. 120, New York, 1991 pp. 228-243.
UN, World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revision.
Annex Tables, pp.180-185.
35. Table 2.3 also shows variations with respect to sex in life expectancy at birth. The female population has been consistently having higher e0 than male counterparts since 1950. However, the sex differentials have been increasing as conditions of mortality improve among African countries.
36. Thus, the analysis of the fertility and mortality levels, trends and differentials of Africa suggested that African demographic profile is still characterized by high fertility and mortality. Consequently, the age structure would remain to be youth-dominated.
2.3 Timing of Initiation of Fertility Decline and Implications of the African Aae structure
37. The age structure of a population in various countries of the world appears to be quite diverse. For example, as of 1985, the median age of world's population ranged from 14.1 years in Kenya to 37.7 years in the Federal Republic of Germany being generalized to be only about 20 years or lower for Africa, Latin America and South Asia, whereas, it was estimated to be 3 0 years or more in Europe, North America, and the former USSR. Furthermore, it was observed that while the median ages of most populations in the world have been rising at least since around 1970, that of Africa has been declining.13
38. During the process of demographic transition which is characterized by falling levels of fertility and mortality from traditionally high levels to low levels, the age structure of a
13 UN, Economic and Social Implications of Population Aging:
Global Trends and Prospects of Aging Population Structures. proceedings of the International Symposium on Population Structure and Development, Tokyo, 10-12 Sept.
1987, UN, New York, 1988, p.43
population generally tends to be older and the median age advances.
But, at the early stage of the transition, especially when a rapid decline in mortality is achieved through a rapid decrease in mortality at infancy and childhood, the age structure may temporarily become younger before appearing to be older and this phenomenon complicates the clear demarcation of transition and the issues of aging because of the interaction of demographic
processes.
39. Since the recent past, it has been recognized that the joint effects of the population dynamics result in changing the population age structure. Initially, attempts were made to give a crude trichotomous classification of the demographic transition
according to the patterns of the age structures as follows:14
a. Progressive population, being characterized by higher proportion of children and high rate of population growth;
b. Stationary type of population, having had a moderate proportion of children and aged persons, with slow growth or constant population size; and
c. Regressive type of population, being characterized by a high proportion of aged persons with declining population size.
40. Later on, more refined concepts and models such as the development of stationary and stable populations; definitions of different stages and timing of initiations of demographic transition and accompanying changes in the population age structures have been developed.15
14 Ibid.. p.44
15 (a) UN, World Population Monitoring 1991 with Special Emphasis on Age Structure. Population Studies, No. 126, New York 1992, pp. 8-19.
41. Accordingly, attempts have been made to group the countries of the world into three, namely countries of the pre-initiation, late- initiation and early-initiation groups, respectively according to the timing initiation of both mortality and fertility declines and show the consequential changes in the population age structures.
42. In the pre-initiation countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) has been assumed to be generally as high as ranging from 6.5 - 6.9 children per woman upto the year 1990 and expectation of life increased from 37 years in 1950-55 to about 52 years during 1985- 90. Late-initiation countries with a total fertility rate declining from about 6.1 children per woman in 1950-1955 and showing a continuous declining level till the year 1990 with a mortality transition recording about 45 years of life expectancy at birth in 1950-55 and increasing to about 65 years during 1985-90.
However, in the early-initiation countries, the total fertility rate was recorded to be already as low as 2.8 in 1950-55 and dropping to 1.9 in 1985-90, with expectation of life at birth increasing from about 66 years in 1950-55 to an average of 74 years in 1985-90.
43. All sub-Sharan African Countries have been grouped with the pre-initiation countries. With the exception of some countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, South Africa, and Mauritius being grouped under late-initiation countries.
44. Data presented in Table 2.4, has decomposition of the age structure into three main functional groups. Results show a glaring variation among the pre-initiation, late-initiation and early- initiation countries as related to the demographic transition.
(b) UN, Concise Report on the World Population Situation in 1991, with Special Emphasis on Aae Structure. New York 1991, pp. 1-8
(c) Samuel H. Preston, etal.. op.cit. (1982), pp. 217-229
This table clearly shows that the population age structure of the pre-initiation countries remains youthful, while those of the late- initiation and early-initiation countries would have advanced ages for the coming decades.
Table 2.4 Differential Aae Distribution Trends—by.—Timing—of Initiation of Fertility Decline (1950-1970, 1990 and
2025)
Timing of Initiations of fertility decline
Pre initiation countries Late initiation "
Early initiation "
Pre initiation countries Late initiation "
Early initiation "
Pre initiation countries Late initiation "
Early initiation "
1950 1970 1990 2025
Proportion aged under 15 years 41.7
37.1 27.7
45.2 41.2 26.6
45.9 32.8 21.3
34.1 22.1 17.8 Proportion aged 15 to 24 years
18.8 18.8 17.2
18.4 18.6 16.7
19.2 20.8 14.8
20.6 . 15.0 12.2
Proportion aged 65 and over 3.5
3.9 7.6
3.0 3.9 9.6
2.8 4.9 12.1
3.9 9.8 19.0
Source: UN, World Population Monitoring 1991—with—Special
Fmphasis on Aae Structure, New York, 1992, p. 1245. Further examination of the population age structure was made by disaggregating the three timing of initiation of demographic
transition at global, continental and sub-regional levels. Table2.5 presents the situation, showing the proportions for children less than 15 years of age, the youth and the old age population.
The table is generally characterized by a decline in the proportion
of children and relative increase in the proportions of the youth
and old age populations. One interesting tendency is that the
proportions of females in the child and young age groups appear to
be constantly lower than their male counterparts and the inverse
appears in the advanced ages in all the African sub-regions.
Furthermore, the table indicates that there exists some extent of aging in all the sub-regions with relatively more pronounced for northern and southern sub-regions of Africa, which were classified as late-initiation of demographic transition with respect to
fertility decline.
Table 2.5 Differential Aae/Sex Structure Distribution of Population Trends for maior regions and sub-regions for. ECA Member States (1950.1970.1990 and 2025)
Major Areas and African sub
region World
More Developed Less Developed Africa
Eastern Northern Middle
Southern Western
Major Areas World
More Developed Less Developed Africa
Eastern Northern Middle
Southern Western
Major Areas World
More Developed Less Developed Africa
Eastern Northern Middle
Southern Eastern
1950
34.6 27.8 37.9 42.6 43.5 41.3 41.2 39.0 44.1
18.3 17.2 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 18.7 18.5 19.1
(42.1) (43.1) (41.1) (40.2) (38.8) (43.7)
1970
Proportion 37.5
26.6 41.8 44.8 45.7 44.6 43.1 41.5 45.6
Proportion
(18.7) (18.8) (18.9) (18.5) (17.8) (18.9)
18.
16.
16.
18.6 18.7 18.5 18.4 18.8 18.6
(44.1) (35.2) (43.6) (42.1) (40.5) (45.1) Aged IS
0 7 6
(18.5) (18.6) (18.4) (18.1) (18.5) (18.5)
Proportion Aged 65 5.1
7.6 3.8
3.2 ( 3.5) 2.9(3.3) 3.5(3.7) 3.8(4.2) 3.6(4.1) 2.8(3.0)
5.4 9.6 3.7 3.1(
2.8(
3.4) 3.1) 3.9(4.2) 3.1(
3.7(
2.6(
3.5) 4.4) 2.8)
1990 2025
Under Age 15 32.3
21.3 35.8
45.0(44.5) 46.7(46.1) 41.5(40.9) 46.1(45.4) 39.4(38.8) 46.8(46.3) 5 to 24
19.1 14.8 20.4
19.1(18.9) 19.2(19.1) 19.5(19.2) 18.6(18.4) 19.2(18.9) 18.8(18.7) and over
6.2 12.1 4.5 3.0(3.4) 2.8(3.1) 3.6(3.9) 3.2(3.6) 3.9(4.5) 2.7(2.9)
24.5 17.8 25.8 36.3 38.9 27.7 39.7 28.3 38.4
16.
12.
16.
19.8 20.2 18.3 20.2 18.3 20.2
9.7 19.0 8.0 4.0(
3.1(
6.3(
3.2(
(35.9) (38.5) (27.4) (39.2) (27.8) (37.9)
0 3 7
(19.7) (20.1) (18.2) (20.1) (18.0) (20.1)
4.3) 3.4) 6.9) 3.5) 6.5(7.3) 3.4(3.7) Note: 1. Figures in parentheses are for females
2. Figures for less developed countries include for Africa too.
Source: a. UN, World Population Monitoring 1991 with Special Emphasis on Age Structure, Population Studies, No. 126, New York 1992, pp. 16-17.
b. For Africa, compiled and computed from: UN, The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations, The 1992 Revision, New York 1993, pp. 10-20
46. Trends of the mean and. median ages of population in the different sub-regions are also examined in Table 2.6. The mean age of the African population is estimated to increase from about 22 years in 1970 to about 25 years by the year 2025. Estimate of the median age indicates that about fifty percent of the African population was below 18 years of age in 1970.
Table 2.6 Differential Age Distribution Trends at Global and Continental Levels, Showing the Sub-Regional Features of ECA Member States
f!950,1970.1990 and 2025
Major Areas and African Suta Regions World
More Developed Less Developed Africa
Eastern Northern Middle Southern Western
Major Areas+
World
More Developed Less Developed Africa
Eastern Northern Middle
Southern Eastern
23 22 23 23 24 22
22 28 21 18 18 19 19 20 17
.0 .5 .6 .6 .6 .3
.4 .2 .2 .7 .2 .2 .4 .7 .9
195C
(13.
(22.
(23.
(24.
(25.
(22.
)
1
3) 8)9) 2) 6)1)
4ean
22 21 22 22 23 21 Median
(18.
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(18.
9) 5) 4) 0)0) 1)
21 30 18 17 17 17 18 19 17
1970
Age
.3(22 .8(22 .7(23 .9(23 .6(24 .8(22
Age
.6 .1 .9 .5(17 .1(17 .6(17 .5(19 .1(19 .2(17
in ]
.6)
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-5)
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in
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■7)
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fears
22.
21.
23, 21.
24.
21.
1990
0(227
7(21.
3(23.
8(22.
1(24.
3(21.
Years 24.
33.
22.
17.
16.
19.
16.
20.
16.
2 7 0 4(17.
6(16.
1(19.
9(17.
1(20.
6(16.
3) 5) 7) 3) 5) 6)
7) 9) 5) 3) 5) 8)
25.
23.
29.
23.
29.
24.
31.
40.
29.
21.
20.
27.
19.
27.
20.
2 8 6 5 3 1
1 8 6 8 2 4 8 0 5
2025
(257
(24.
(29.
(23.
(29.
(24.
(22.
(20.
(27.
(20.
(27.
(20.
4) 0) 8) 8) 6) 4)
0) 4) 6) 1) 5) 8) Note: 1.
2.
Source:
Figures in the parentheses are for females
Figures for less developed countries include for Africa coo.
UN, world Population Monitoring 1991, with Special Emphasis on Age Structure. Population Studies, No. 126 New York 1992.
For Africa, Compiled and Computed From:
UN, The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations, The 1992 Revision. New York, 1993, pp. 10-20.
47. This would increase to 22 years by the year 2025. Table 2.6 also presents in the mean and median ages among the African sub- regions. The variations are apparently significant where the parameters are considerably higher for Northern and Southern sub- regions than for the rest. One further salient feature of Table 2.6 is the variation in the mean and median ages between the male and female populations where the central tendencies are higher for females than for male counterparts. This observation strengthens the advantages females have regarding differential mortality
according to gender.
2.4 Aaa/aex Specific Growth Rates and Acre Patterns of Sax Ratios of African Populations and Their Implications;
48. The Age and Sex specific growth rates for African population are presented in Annex A, showing for the five sub-regions. A
summary of the annex for Africa as a whole and the sub-regions is
shown in Table 2.7 in broad functional age and sex groups.49. As indicated in Table 2.7, the African Population growth rate has been spectacularly very high as compared with the rates of the
less developed (excluding Africa) and more developed societies.
For example, between 1970 and 90, the rate was about 2.9 per cent
for Africa as against about 2.2 for less developed and 0.7 per cent
for more developed countries. For at least the coming decades, thegrowth rate of the African population would still remain high,
reaching about 2.6 percent by the year 2025.50. The African Sub-regional age/sex specific growth rates also appear to be very high and diverse among the sub-regions, ranging
from about 2.6 per cent in Northern to about 3.1 per cent in
Western Sub-region between 1970-90 (see Annex A) . The sub-regional
growth rates would still remain high for the coming decades, which
are estimated to range from about 2.0 per cent for Northern and
Southern Sub-Regions, to about 2.8 per cent for the rest of the
sub-regions by the year 2025 (see Annex A).Table 2.7 Aae/Sex Specific Growth Rates bv Broad Functional Groups and Sub-Recrions (1950-7CK 1970-90 and 1990-2025)
Sub-Regions
Africa Eastern Northern Middle
Southern Western
Sub Regions Africa
Eastern Northern Middle Southern Western
Sub Regions Africa
Eastern Northern Middle Southern Western
Total for Africa Less Developed
1950-7 1970-90 1990-2025
Growth rates for population under 15 2.71(2.67)
2.80(2.79) 2.75(2.66) 2.33(2.27) 2.74(2.64) 2,71(2.70)
2.87(2.87) 2.99(2.96) 2.26(2.27) 3.16(3.14) 2.40(2.44) 3.18(3.16)
1.96(1.95) 2.27(2.25) 0.82(0.83) 2.40(2.38) 1.01(1.00) 2.21(2.19) Growth rates for population 15-24
2.36(2.36) 2.49(2.50) 2.24(2.24) 2.03(1.95) 2.53(2.62) 2.42(2.42)
2.98(2.95) 3.01(3.03) 2.88(2.79) 2.88(2.84) 2.74(2.77) 3.11(3.10)
2.68(2.67) 2.94(2.92) 1.80(1.82) 3.07(3.05) 1.82(1.81) 2.98(2.96)
Growth rates for population 65 and over 2.34(2.32)
2.30(2.24) 2.97(2.93) 1.13(1.20) 2.58(2.77) 2.23(2.21) 2.45(2.44) 2.27
2.78(2.76) 2.94(2.93) 2.16(2.19) 2.89(2.80) 2.85(2.73) 3.23(3.16)
2.85(2.83) 2.17
3.34(3.29) 3.09(3.01) 3.61(3.61) 2.90(2.77) 3.42(3.35) 3.48(3.43)
2.58(2.56) 1.60
Note Figures in parentheses are for females.
Source Compiled and computed from:
a. UN, World Population Prospects 1990, Population Studies No. 120 New York, 1991, p. 20
b. UN, The sex and age distribution of the world population: The 1992 Revision. New York 1993, pp.
10-20
51. The age and sex specific growth rates of almost all the sub- regions generally tend to be in favour of the young age groups before 1990 but appear to be reversed to the old age population after 1990 (see Annex A.1-A.6). In recent years, therefore, the
age/sex specific growth rates have shown spectacular increase with advancing ages, especially for Northern, Southern and Western Sub- regions.
52. These trends can be seen clearly in Table 2.7. For Africa as a whole, the growth rate of young children (i.e. under 15 years) would decline from about 2.9 per cent during 1970 and 90 to about
2.0 per cent during 1990 and 2025. Similarly, the growth rate of the youth (i.e. in the age group 15 - 24), it would decline from about 3.0 per cent to 2.7 per cent during these periods.
Conversely, for the elderly population, the rate would increase from about 2.8 to 3.3 per cent. It follows similar trends at the sub-regional levels, despite the variations in levels of the growth rates among the sub-regions (see table 2.7).
53. The observed high proportions of children (under 15 years of age) and elderly population (65 years and above) and their corresponding high growth rates could imply, other things being equal, a serious burden on the working age population in the age bracket 15-64. An index of dependency of the former two population categories on the latter category, which is termed as "Dependency Ratio", can be established. The assumption is that all those in the age segment 15-64 are economically active and support dependent segments of the population with social and economic requirements as well as giving the necessary resources.
54. The dependency ratios among the African Sub-regions are presented in Table 2.8. The dependency ratio has increased from about 85 in 1950 to about 92 per 100 working age population in 1990 for Africa as a whole and among the sub-regions. Considerably high ratios are found in the Eastern, where the ratio ranged from 87 to 98. Middle, with ratio ranging from 82 to 97 and the Western Sub- region with a ratio ranging from 88 to 98. Countries at the extreme points in the level of dependency ratios range from about 91 in Djibouti (excluding Mauritius) and as high as 109 in Kenya in
Eastern sub-region; 71 for Tunisia and 93 for Libya in the Northern; 64 for Gabon and 101 for Zaire in the Middle sub-region;
74 for South Africa and 99 for Botswana in the Southern; and 82 for Guinea Bissau and 104 for Ivory Coast in West African sub-region.
As expected from the demographic growth, the Northern and Southern Sub-regions have relatively lower dependency ratios than Eastern and Western regions. From these trends, it can be expected that the dependency ratios for the sub-regions would remain high for the coming decades.
Table 2.8 Levels and Trends of Dependency Ratios Among the African Sub-regions (1950.1970.1990 and 2025)
Sub region
Eastern Northern Middle Southern Western Region
1950
86.6 81.2 81.8 74.2 88.3 84.5
1970
94.2 94.2 85.9 82.5 93.1 91.9
1990
98.0 82.1 97.2 76.4 98.0 92.3
2025
72.4 51.5 75.1 53.1 71.8 65.5
Countries with Low and High ratios:
(1990) Minimum Djibouti (90.5).
Tunisia (71.0) Gabon (63.7) S.Africa (74.4) Guinea B. (82.2 Tunisia (71.0)
Maximum Kenya (108.6) Libya (93.4) Zaire (100.7) Botswana (99.0) Ivory C. (103.5) Kenya (108.6) Source: Computed from Table 2.5
55. Although the dependency ratio could be considered as crude indication of the impact of population age structure on the depletion of resources, it does not represent the actual support burden at any given point of time because it tends to conceal the age/sex specific variations in the levels and trends of labour force participation rates and unemployment rates. It merely demonstrates the demographic burden of countries in terms of the dependant and economically active population groups in age structure.
56. The age patterns of sex ratios for the African sub-regions are also presented in Annex A. (i.e. Annex A.I - A.6). For all the
sub-regions, the pattern of the sex ratio appears to be decreasing in the advancing ages. For example, the sex ratio for Africa, as
a whole, tends to decline consistently from age 25. and over-Examination of the trends in the pattern of the sex. ratios, however, suggests that the ratio has been increasing since 1950, and may be till the year 2025. However, the ratio remains low .as
age advances, implying that the survival probabilities of femalesappear to be higher than their male counterparts. The prevalence
of more female widowhood, than males in the advanced ages,therefore, present implication in the age structure of have serious
social and economic consequences in the ECA member states.
57. in conclusion, the analysis of the population age structure and demographic dynamics has shown the following salient features:
a. demographic dynamics of the ECA member states, it could be concluded that demographic changes appears to be still
under process in its initial stages of achievingdemographic transition.
b. aging in the African countries could be achieved if the
life span increases and the majority of African womenpractice contraceptions for fertility reduction.
Important development changes in social, economic and political threshold should be acquired before noticeable
changes in fertility and mortality levels and patterns and rate of population growth in ECA Member Statesoccurred.
c. currently, aging of population may not be an important
issue in the majority of the African societies. However,there are some indications that mortality levels would
decline significantly in the foreseeable future, especially in the Northern and Southern Sub-regions where the size of the old age population has already showntrends of sizeable increase. Thus the implication of changing age structure because of the implication the increasing number of the old people, either through fertility reduction, mortality decline or as a result of HIV/AIDS on the economically active population, requires special attention, protection and provision of social security African countries;
d. the high dependency ratio in the ECA Member States reflects some burden of young and elderly put on the economically active population.
e. A greater increase in the number of older women than older men was observed from the age pattern of sex ratios. This changing age structure is becoming a result of differential mortality in later years among males and females.
III. Perceptions and Policies on the Population Aae Structure Demographic Dynamics and Social Security Provisions in ECA
"tates
58. Our analysis presented already has shown that the demographic profile of the ECA Member States has been characterized by high levels, patterns differentials and trends of fertility and mortality. These have been associated with prevalence of overwhelming youthful age population? low life expectancy; large family size and so on. On the contrary, the ECA Member States have been facing deplorably low levels of social and economic development, low per capita income in every sector and very limited social security provisions. These issues ranked highest among the majority of African countries and geneerally all the least developed countries (LDC) in the world.
59. Since the 1974 Bucharest World Population Conference, it has been realized that population is one of the components of development process. This recognition has led many countries in the world, especially developing countries of Africa, to formulate and implement policies designed to influence their demographic factors.
60. As a follow - up measure of the 1974 World Population Plan of Action and subsequent recommendations of the 1984 Mexico and Arusha population Conferences, the UN launched "The sixth Population Inquiry Among Governments". This inquiry monitored governments perceptions and policies on demographic trends and levels in relation to development. Questions were also included pertaining to motivations and provisions of social security in the UN Member States. There were 4 6 countries of the ECA Member States were covered in the survey.
61. Each responding government expressed firstly its perceptions on the population size and age structure, including on the levels
and trends of the demographic dynamics. Secondly, inquiries were made pertaining to the general policy of approach to the problems and development and objectives and measures taken on the demographic factors. Responses on social security schemes of each government were also made.
3.1 Responses to Population Aae structure and Demographic Dynamics
62. With respect to perceptions, the responses of the ECA Member States are summarized and presented in Table 3.1. As shown in the table, about 65 per cent of the ECA Members States expressed that their population age structure and the corresponding growth rates as well as the levels and trends of fertility have not been favourable to their development programmes. With the exception of levels and trends of mortality, to which all countries expressed great concern for being too high and unacceptable, there appear some variations in the responses of population age structure and growth rates among countries in various sub-regions. For example, about 47 per cent of the West African Countries perceived that their population age structure and population growth rates were unsatisfactory because they were too high. In ascending order, the responses were for Middle African Countries (50 per cent), Eastern (7 3 per cent), Northern (8 0 per cent) and Southern African Countries (100 per cent). Similarly, the proportions of countries which expressed that their fertility levels and trends were unsatisfactory because they were too high ranged from about 33 and 50 per cent for the countries in Middle and Western Africa, respectively, and as high as 80 per cent each for the countries in Eastern, Northern and Southern sub-regions respectively.
Relatively a large number of ECA Member States in the Middle and Western sub-regions responded that their population age structure, growth rates and fertility levels should at least be maintained at the current status-quo. These are yet still high with potential growth trends in future. Some of these countries such as Gabon, Central African Republic etc. had low fertility levels and
