التوقع بالمبيعات باستخدام نماذج إحصائية

Texte intégral

(1)‫א

(2) و אزא אد

(3) אطא ‬ ‫وزא אמאوאא

(4) ‬ ‫

(5)

(6) و *ط* ‬ ‫אوמא !دو"وמא ‬ ‫‬ ‫ מאل‪ .....:‬‬ ‫א‪:‬א‪%‬دא א

(7) ‬. ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬ ‫د אط א‪

(8) &

(9) %‬وزن)‪ (SCHB‬‬ ‫‬. ‫ ‬ ‫

(10) ذ

(11) د

(12)

(13)

(14) لدא

(15) *"وמא ‬. ‫ ‬. ‫

(16) ن‪"-‬دאدאط‪ -&:,‬א‪.‬א‪/‬ذאدو ‪:‬‬ ‫!‪12‬אدن وش"دאزز א ‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‪

(17) 5‬מ‪34"5‬א

(18) ‪ :‬‬. ‫‬ ‫‪.5‬د‪.‬אد ل ‪7‬א

(19) زא

(20) ‪5−‬מאوא ‬ ‫‪.5‬د‪".‬دאزز א

(21) ‪ ً 9‬א

(22)

(23) و ‪−‬ط ‬ ‫د‪".‬دאو

(24) وو"‪4‬وא‪

(25)

(26) 7‬و ‪−‬ط ‬ ‫د‪".‬دא وא;"‪4‬وًא

(27)

(28) و ‪−‬ط ‬ ‫ ‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫אא

(29) ‪ 2007−2006:‬‬.

(30) ‫ﺑـﺴﻢ ﺍﷲ ﺍﻟﺮﲪﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺣﻴﻢ‬ ‫ََ َ ﱠْ‬ ‫ُ َْ ُ‬ ‫ﱠ‬ ‫ُ‬ ‫َ َ َْ‬ ‫ﻴﻪ ﺗﻮﻛﻠﺖ ِﻭﺇﻟﻴِﻪ ﺃِﻧﻴﺐ ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﻲ ِﺇﻻ ِ‬ ‫‪...‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺗﻮِﻓ ِ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﷲ ﻋﻠ ِ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻳﺔ ‪ 88‬ﻣﻦ ﺳﻮﺭﺓ ﻫــــــــــــــﻮﺩ‬. ‫ﺻﺪ ﻕ ﺍﷲ ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻴﻢ‬.

(31) ‫ﺍﳊﻤﺪ ﷲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻭﻓﻘﻨﻲ ﻹﲤﺎﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﺮﺓ ‪...‬‬. ‫ﺷــــــــــــــــﻜﺮ ﻭﺇﻫﺪﺍء‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺪﻡ ﺃﲰﻰ ﺗﺸﻜﺮﺍﺗﻲ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺳﺘﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺪﻛﺘﻮﺭ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺷﺮﺍﺑﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻔﻀﻞ ﺑﻘﺒﻮﻟﻪ ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻻ ﺃﻧﺴﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺗﺬﺓ ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﲞﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﻓﻮﺯﻱ ﺷﻌﻮﺑﻲ ‪ ،‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﻴﺨﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻭﺭﻗﻠﺔ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺒﻲ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻫﺎﺏ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎء ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻗﺴﻨﻄﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪﻣﻮﻫﺎ ﱄ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﺮﺓ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻫﺪﻱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﳝﲔ ﻭﺍﻹﺧﻮﺓ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻮﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﱃ ﺃﺧﺘﻲ ﻭﺯﻭﺟﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺑﻨﻬﺎ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﱃ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻗﺪﻣﻮﺍ ﱄ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺮﻳﺐ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﻴﺪ‪....‬‬. ‫ً‬ ‫ﺷﻜـــــــﺮﺍ‬.

(32) ‫د‬ *=*=*=*=*. ‫

(33) و" !א א م‬$‫وא‬،&'()* ‫א‬+,'-./‫وو‬0‫ دא‬1‫وא‬2‫א‬+ ‫א‬3/‫م‬4$‫دلא

(34) قא אא‬ ،! @ ‫ @?>א‬A"

(35) B ‫א!א‬,'C*$‫א‬D,'E* ‫ن‬2‫א‬+ ‫ !א‬GHI$‫א !وא‬5678‫و‬،'$ 9 ‫א‬: ;* ‫=<א‬ J‫* د‬7‫وא‬،'GK = L A69‫ و‬A ;*=3G1' ‫ א ?א‬A ‫א‬MN) ‫و‬OMP* ‫א‬K ‫ و‬Q‫و@?א‬ !‫وא‬RH(N‫א‬X‫م‬T B ‫وא‬،: ‫وאدא‬R'G* ‫א‬SLMP*G$‫א‬8' H0‫=' !وא‬T* ‫وא‬U')V* ‫א‬5675WN‫و‬O `'-،a '-S‫ ن‬Gb a M2 Kً Nd)‫א‬،! GHI$‫@?>א‬: ']^_N'@N*6 ‫ن‬YK‫?א‬Z‫و‬،‫א* جא *ز‬،* ‫א‬ ‫)و‬e‫א‬N ‫ و‬Q@`M]‫א‬5=9$ /N* ‫א‬f(g‫?א‬Z‫و‬،M'9( ‫وא‬8T ‫(א‬T*G$‫א‬a >I(h,ij h‫ ن‬G‫نא‬ 2 H ‫א‬M-a0:‫ د‬T ‫وא‬،3J- ( ‫^א‬M ^_N'@a ‫و‬،a(N‫א‬7‫و‬a )M]‫א‬N0‫א‬567‫و‬،a2‫لود‬Ak‫א‬ 'H H0‫(=א‬l6 ‫א‬M9mAK،`M]‫_א‬9 ‫א‬SaN )G ‫وא‬a(' HW9G ‫?אא‬Z‫و‬،(T*G$‫א‬j *‫א‬567M7 G B ‫ א‬Z‫א‬ ،9 ‫ مא‬n A' ‫* ج‬1B ‫אدא‬$‫א‬.@ ‫و‬،D'‫و‬،‫و‬،a67M :‫אدא‬a'K‫د‬,MPm `'-‫'אدא‬69 ‫א‬S !‫)א‬e‫و

(36) _'א‬o‫א‬4 ‫א‬i'_ ‫و‬،(T*G$‫א‬S AT'T18‫א ';' !א א‬pH‫وو"א‬،j‫א‬M@0‫א‬MM1&q7r ‫وذ‬ :LI$‫אא‬9 ‫(وא‬T*G$ /! 9N* ‫א‬t"567‫و@?א‬، Gu Q. '/‫دو‬uMQv‫ ز‬qS‫ز‬wd ‫א‬M7‫א‬T ‫א!وא‬t‫وאא‬ SU)V$‫א‬E

(37) m ='-‫و‬،

(38) 6*V$‫ א‬A6 z]M!‫אدאא‬aA;*= O? ‫א‬.H H0‫א = طא‬M9m ، A7N‫*و‬x‫א‬ r ‫ذ‬Sً ='9*G(T*G$‫א‬j*G‫و‬، N*‫ ولن‬PmaYK،r ‫ذ‬a/ { ‫'و‬TG ‫و")دאو* 'و‬ ً‫א‬M'

(39) N* ‫نא‬E5*-‫و‬،ً H6‫ ًو‬G'2ً‫دوא‬896 B ‫א‬:" ]‫א!א‬RC*$‫'א‬61‫و‬،" ]‫وא‬M'9( ‫א‬." $‫א‬t‫א‬T*H / : A*'@'69 ‫א‬MT

(40) *H|‫א وطא * 'و‬a'KK* ‫ن‬8} Oً‫א‬M'

(41) N* ‫نא‬E‫ن‬−، JM-'9N* ‫'א‬69 ‫א‬S:M*9$‫نא (' !א‬E ‫ن‬− ، ‫*) ع‬G$‫א‬MNً T'N‫ند‬E‫ن‬− MNً P"‫نوא‬E‫ن‬− ، a=:$‫א‬:M2

(42) ‫א‬D' E* ‫

(43) قא‬dK،Dl6ER‫ن‬E‫ن‬−‫د‬،!dE$‫א‬-S‫م‬MV*Gm .‫אل‬-0‫'א‬ST6)$‫א‬P,_ ‫א‬M-_ aYKa*N‫د‬W A‫و‬N* ‫نא‬0‫*) ع‬G$‫א‬ ،' J ‫'א‬E ‫א]א‬M9/!*‫א‬B ‫א‬JM]‫א‬R'G* ‫א‬2 H ‫א‬i@3/N* ‫=' !و ذجא‬T M9m r ‫وذ‬، ‫*_ د‬N‫א‬:)*$‫אنא‬M6( ‫א‬S:‫د‬M9*$‫وא‬9H‫ א א‬A | 9*H|ً‫ وא@* م<א‬H‫א‬M ‫אًא‬K‫) ًوא‬GN!?‫و‬ A@‫אض‬0.6(T*G$‫ א‬A6G/N* ‫وא‬،‫*_ د‬N‫א <א@א‬9/RG

(44) SC /'@!‫ذא‬6'H A‫א‬MV*H‫א‬ ‫*_ د‬N‫א‬U')V* ‫وא‬4 ‫א‬ ^‫ (و‬9/ ) '6‫א!دא‬RC*E* !|‫ د‬97‫ د و‬97: (7.AK،O D6*a'(* ًd ً <!|‫ د‬9$‫@?>א‬J, m ‫و‬،'2‫א‬7‫ د‬T‫ و‬97K " /،(6T*G)' ! 9'($‫אنא‬M'S!‫אא‬T ‫'א ذא‬67=6T7'2E/‫و‬،R'G* ‫' ' !א‬AG 'C/r ‫وذ‬،vq ‫*_ دא‬N‫ !א‬q .6E ‫وא‬،" Micro économétrie". 2+ ‫א‬a'T/‫*_ د‬N‫א‬S‫' س‬T ‫ ً *) ذجא‬9( r ‫وذ‬،...'C* ‫א* جوא‬ <= ‫وא‬A‫א = ذج‬3/ON> ‫א‬6( 3'" $‫א‬MT9 ‫אدא‬M*‫א‬567‫و‬-d‫ذ‬،"Macro économétrie" ‫ لא =ذ ج‬d‫ ول‬1B ‫وא‬،"modélisation" ?= /a*'G 567f6)g‫ א‬A<K،^ A‫*_ د‬N‫א‬ SiEP* ‫א‬567:R(:MNa')9m‫و‬، A*H‫א‬M/l6x‫مא‬TB ‫א‬:@ <6 'H H0‫א _

(45) !א‬7DE ‫"א‬model" «1 ».

(46) ‫א‪RC*$‬א!א ‪ ASa =Em,i، A'KLI B‬א‪0‬א*( א

(47) "' ! ‪،‬وא*' ‪K‬א (‪M‬א‪2‬وא]‪6‬ل ‪!dE6‬‬ ‫‪MNMP‬א ‪567a‬و"א‪pH‬א ';' !א‪a @،a dE$(H =$‬א = ذجא ‪B‬و‪W6g‬‬ ‫א ‪ B‬א‪a‬א‪،U ) V$‬وא ‪9‬א‪&2‬א ‪m B‬‬ ‫‪R(^*G‬א *)‪،,‬و‪i, 7‬א‪MV*H‬א‪D6* A‬א ‪,)*6 :{ (;'* =! 7 )T‬א!א ‪B‬و‪ A' W6g‬א] ‪! (H‬‬ ‫א ‪pE‬و'‪،‬وא ‪4‬א‪o‬א @‪J A69l (1): +‬א‪ _*N‬دو‪، 7H‬ذ ‪r‬نא ذא ‪T‬אא!א‪ *7‬دאً‪>?@567‬א = ذج‪M9/‬‬ ‫א*' א‪R(E/Dl

(48) Vm Z&lK$‬א‪2 Ge‬א‪،6*x‬وא *‪i;-'6T‬א

(49) صא (‪6M‬و@?א‪'/S‬و‪U'Q‬‬ ‫א‪ _*N‬د‪>+,'nO‬א ‪ d‬د‪ .:‬‬ ‫ ‬ ‫ ‪Em‬א{ ‪:‬ن‪'67‬א *‪/N‬א‪)H‬א = ذجא‪،

(50) 6*V$‬وא ذא ‪T‬א א!‪S‬א !وא‪!=$‬א _‪T:RC‬‬ ‫‪& 7567‬א‪IG$‬ولא‪0‬ول‪S ='/، A'K‬א !وא‪!=$‬א‪)H*$‬وא ‪', G6 E|:R(E‬ن*‪?@>M- P‬אא ‪t89‬‬ ‫א ‪،R(E‬و ?אو‪ 'S3__V*E 8‬دא‪*H‬א‪j‬وא *‪، N‬و} د‪iGN‬و@' ‪g‬و*‪?Z__V‬אא ‪9‬‬. ‫א‪pH‬א ';‪.‬א‪ Z‬م‪H‬א‪t‬אً‪:=6 (G= /‬وא ‪M‬و ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪R‬ن@= ‪ = + *3GN‬ذجא *‪: @ N‬א‪8' H0‬א =< '‪،,‬א‪8' H0‬א ‪" ،' <RC‬ع‬ ‫א@* = ‪>?@S‬א ‪M‬א‪S_P=AKH‬א‪8' H0‬א =< '‪,‬א ‪،,'((HRC‬وא ‪567M*9 B‬א‪,'C*$‬א!א * ‪,'C*6 ,'h‬‬ ‫א‪$‬אد ‪a*'NN‬א‪،,'6(T*G$‬و|‪ * ‬ج‪MM1‬א‪,'C*$‬א!א ‪،a6H,G

(51) B‬و@‪i‬א = ذجא ‪M,'((HRC‬‬ ‫‪! q TH‬א >א ‪ 9‬م ‪،‬وא = ذجא‪HdG6 '2 _-‬א ‪>?@،,'=+‬א‪:R0‬א ‪?@S A'67+l jHB‬אא (‪،`P‬وذ ‪r‬‬ ‫ ¡‪ (H‬א * '‪ :‬‬ ‫• ' א ‪! Nd9‬א ‪9/S,'((G‬א‪ '-0‬ن‪،‬و?א‪ 'N/9g‬س‪ A9/‬א‪ ،¢‬‬ ‫• ‪M7‬م ‪K‬א‪! ')9$‬א ‪-,'K E‬لא‪,'C*$‬א!א ‪ *1 A،-‬ج‪:R(7‬א‪M@ $‬א!‪ .‬‬ ‫و‪MN‬א = ن ‪M‬وא{‪-,' E‬لא *‪3 £ G‬א * '‪ :3‬‬ ‫‪^M −1‬د‪N‬א )قא‪S69*G$‬א *‪GHI$ /N‬؟‪ ،‬‬ ‫‪a @3G1 ==E@−2‬א *‪ = =T'()*/! 9N‬ذج‪='9'2 _-‬؟‪ .‬‬ ‫و‪0‬א ‪?@7/‬א ‪IG‬א ‪¥pT =YK،3‬א

(52) "'‪,‬א * '‪ :,‬‬ ‫نא *‪! 9N‬א ‪T B‬م‪{ A/‬א¦=‪/ -W‬ز ن)‪،lNM /iG* |ً ' -(SCHB‬و‪ A='G1 ==E‬א‪ *7‬دאً‪567‬‬ ‫@ ‪a‬א = ذج‪ .‬‬ ‫!‪`'-،‬نא‪M7S)e‬אد@ ‪a‬‬ ‫وא ‪M‬א‪K‬א ‪'2‬א ?‪O‬د‪?@ 9$ =9K‬אא‪"$‬ع@א‪'@0‬א ‪ 9'($ /N*6 :R(E‬‬ ‫א *‪)SUTKLI|! 9N‬و‪! ' 9K‬دא‪:‬א‪M*/،! 9'($‬א‪:+A0‬وא ‪D2‬א‪g ^0‬و'

(53) א* ج‬ ‫)‪567(1‬א ‪i‬ود‪7‬א!א = ذجא‪

(54) 6*V$‬א ‪K*f(gB‬א‪N567‬אصא]א‪8H‬א‪' ¢‬א _‪ A=:RC‬وא ‪aYK،:R(E‬א‪M9(*G$‬ن ‪M‬א ‪! '4‬א @‪:+‬‬ ‫א ‪ T‬د‪567:‬א *‪D6* 9‬א <و‪j‬وא‪RC*$‬א!‪،‬و ‪g‬ونو‪j‬و‪! G/d‬א‪!dE$‬א ‪:=XU'1B‬و=< ( *‪7D6‬و‪j‬و‪! G/d‬א‪!dE$‬‬ ‫א ‪ B‬א‪a‬א‪! <=$‬وא‪!=$‬א‪ '-aG

(55) M}6x K،^0‬م‪ *1!dE‬ج‪ i'_ 567‬ذج ‪، A/g‬و"و‪) :‬و )@?>א ‪4‬א‪o‬א @‪:+‬‬ ‫ *_(‪ . Z2df‬و ‪M+6‬א *

(56) _'‪-‬لא =?و{‪ E‬لא = ذج)א‪] $‬س‪ .‬ل‪.([ 98−‬‬. ‫» ‪«2‬‬.

(57) TTx‫ !א‬9'($‫א‬4 A'67,_x‫א‬o2 *= ‫نא‬E M=9K،8N ‫א‬9 ‫دא‬M7)e‫@?אא‬7;=‫و‬، +V* ‫وو'

(58) א‬ D' E ‫א

(59) ع‬r ‫ذ‬567‫زد‬،‫ د م‬T* ‫وא‬D6*6 ‫ض‬,9.96H‫ون‬+E{S:R(§ (M'r ‫ذ‬O‫د‬I،ًd9K S! N =*‫;א!وא‬K ¨‫و‬M-r ‫ذ‬567i;='K،.T'T]‫א‬86) ‫א‬N A'67,_x‫א‬o2 *= ‫ نא‬-S ،+V* ‫א‬ ‫אن‬MTKO‫د‬IMN‫و‬، A*9¦567

(60) P6 92 ‫(' !א‬6) ‫)'א‬C* 'K "ً N‫و‬36 9 ‫' א‬C*/:=$‫مא‬+6m l ‫א* ج‬ '67¥ 86)*‫?א‬Z‫و‬،‫ ل‬96 'K "K‫د‬S6,J*$‫א‬D' E* ‫א‬:‫ز د‬8(G/! 9'($‫א‬9lN*$‫א‬¥ /0‫א‬UGN :.6 ! 9'($ /N* ‫א‬ MM1−،H‫و‬M$‫א‬:@ < ‫א‬." 7! ')9$‫א‬lK − ،N* ‫'א‬69/32 T ‫א‬S3'K E ‫א‬: A$‫وא‬:4e‫א‬− jMA/‫*א‬H /! 9'($‫(א‬N‫א‬−‫د‬،! 9'($‫א‬56786) ‫א‬SLI B ‫ 'א‬e‫'وא‬6‫א‬M ‫א!א‬RC*$‫אوא‬9 ‫'א‬61‫و‬ .r ? ‫ز‬d ‫א!א‬t‫ !وא ذאא‬K‫א‬ ‫א‬K9 H A=،=')=GN9 ^*G567T/ HR*G !‫و?א‬2 H ‫אد‬M*‫`@א‬P( ‫ن@?אא‬R?* ‫א‬M'

(61) $‫وא‬ r ‫وذ‬، 2‫א‬+ ‫א‬Si'69* ‫א‬E'A/I(=* ‫א‬Sr/ * ‫ولא‬M‫אم‬MV*H‫א‬H:/=9$‫(وא‬1984)‫ ل‬OM9G ‫א‬:8 ) ‫א‬ ،^ Aj HdH‫و‬A! V$‫!وא‬dM$‫ولא‬M©2 _9/3/:MM'=T )H‫א‬/ 86) /N* ‫א‬3G1W ‫ = و‬B ‫وא‬،(1998)O ')7:R¦: ( ) ‫א‬r ?‫و‬، 'T'() H‫א‬M/,7M H ‫א‬W W ‫ = و‬B ‫وא‬،(1998)S ‫زא دא א‬A{( ) ‫א‬r ?‫و‬،‫ م‬KEGHI X'T'() H‫دא‬،' |M'_ ‫=* !א‬$‫א‬567 :8 ) ‫א‬r ?‫و‬،'H 'N‫אم ذج‬MV*H /‫و@?א‬dA*H /N*6 ‫ و‬QS2‫א‬+ ‫א‬S'2 /AE ‫א‬N ) ‫"عא‬ ‫אم‬MV*H /‫ م‬N`'-،2‫א‬+ ‫א‬S* ‫* جא](א‬I(= ‫'و‬6'61H‫ = ولدא‬O? ‫(א‬2001)W(G ‫א‬/ ‫ د‬T ‫א‬M(7 :8 ) ‫אًא‬R‫و‬، (T:‫د‬M/a *‫و?א‬،fT ‫* א‬EZ‫* 'א‬Y/I(=* ‫א‬S"j HdH" 'T'() H‫دא‬،+ ='E=− /Tq‫ ل‬9*H /R_T ‫^א‬M$‫א‬567! 9'($ /N* ‫ = ولא‬O? ‫(א‬2002)U/‫א‬M7 H ^0‫وא )قא‬N* ‫א‬S+=E=− /T)/T69*$‫'א‬H H0‫א‬i'@

(62) $‫ א‬A'K‫'` = ول‬-،D')H(B.C.R)GHIX ! *=$‫א‬M-0A{! 9'(567O*1'=‫ز‬6G6H567T) ‫?>א‬Z'T'() H‫دא‬t‫א‬Y/‫ م‬N ،K‫و‬9$‫א‬ ..H0‫'א‬6* /K‫و‬9$‫')א‬G( ‫א‬T) ‫ א‬A* T‫و‬،: *V$‫א‬ :.6 .AK`P( ‫א‬SMV*G$‫א‬o@ =$‫وא*' א‬H‫א‬M ‫ودא‬M-`'- j 9*$‫א‬o@ =$‫א‬567، A' ‫ل‬g ‫אدא‬$‫ א‬C ‫غא‬6( ‫و‬H‫א‬M ‫א‬Q‫"ع‬$‫א‬9'() ً‫و<א‬، H‫א‬M ‫@?>א‬S =9( ‫א‬MT Jn'=‫ز‬6G6H‫* د‬7‫لא‬dr ‫وذ‬،." ‫א‬.2 _-‫ وא‬. *=*H‫א‬.6'6P* ‫א‬oA=$‫ 'א‬G‫مא‬69 ‫א‬S A'67 .(SCHB)‫ز ن‬/ -W=¦‫{* جא‬Sv( ‫א‬W=¦b A ‫ !א‬9'($‫א‬ . «3 ».

(63) ‫و‪')C ==Em5*-‬א‪"$‬عو‪M@¡ TK‬א‪j‬وא]‪M‬ود‪?@i'GT «،‬אא (‪_KG¬`P‬ل‪567‬א =‪P‬א * ‪ :.‬‬ ‫אلאول‪:‬א‪=9$‬ن‪! 9'($ /N* /‬و@‪،aNqi‬و‪ :.6 `- (9/i,GN MN‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א‪0‬ول‪'@, :‬א *‪GHI$ /! 9'($ /N‬و‪ .a *G‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א ‪8' H, :. J‬א *‪ N‬א‪

(64) 6*V$‬א‪'7"$‬وא =< 'א ‪' <RC‬وא ?א '‪ .‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א ‪A

(65) , :` J‬مא ‪HdG‬א ‪'=+‬و( ‪، A‬א *) ‪,‬ق ‪ (*b‬א!א‪ . A

(66) S:M7 G$‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א א‪/‬وא‪«:R0‬א *)‪,‬ق‪a'K‬א *‪/N‬א‪ )H‬ذجא‪ . )T*H‬‬ ‫_© ‪, )*6‬ق‪'6P* +=E=−/Tq‬א ‪6G6G‬א ‪'=+‬א ‪9‬א‪،'2‬و‪`- (9/i G, NMN‬‬ ‫אلא‪m :‬‬ ‫ ‪ :.6‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א‪0‬و ل‪M, :‬و ‪-.'@

(67) .‬لא ‪HdG‬א ‪'=+‬א‪:,T*G$‬وא ‪،:, T*GRC‬و? ‪r‬א ‪M‬وאلא‪

(68) 6*V$‬‬ ‫«א *)ق ‪dE‬א ‪M‬א *‪3‬א‪ = 3*6J, $‬ذج‬ ‫ *‪'J‬א ‪HdG‬א ‪'=+‬و@‪.‬دא א ( طא ?א ‪.‬א ‪ '6E‬وא ‪، '2+‬و? ‪, r‬‬ ‫;א (' ‪ .t‬‬ ‫א *®א‪'/0‬وא ‪,‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א ‪, :. J‬א *‪ = /D9‬ذجא *‪'6'J‬א‪HdG6

(69) 6*V$‬א ‪'=+‬و@‪ .‬ذجא‪M ‬אא ?א ‪.‬و ذ ج‬ ‫א‪! )H*$‬א‪،,P*$‬א *‪'6 E‬א ‪ 9‬دوא‪,'¦$‬وא ‪5G B‬א*_ אً‪(ARIMA-SARIMA)/‬א *‪,9‬ض‬ ‫_ ‪، A_2‬و‪! '=P=S A6'Jn‬دא ‪B‬א ( طא ?א ‪،.‬وא ( طא ?א ‪.‬א ‪،'2+‬و? ‪r‬א *‪,9‬ض{وط‬ ‫א‪T*H‬א@ ‪ .‬‬ ‫!א *‪/N‬א‪'61S+=E=−/6H)H‬א ‪HdG‬א ‪'=+‬א ‪9‬א‪'2‬‬ ‫`‪, :‬א‪-‬و)א ‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א ‪ J‬‬ ‫‪¯tM/‬א‪567j,9* /‬א =ذج‪©'V ،a 69MT ،‬وא*( ‪/‬א‪.N‬א =ذج‪ .‬‬ ‫‪،+=E=−‬وא*( د‪N‬א *‪/N‬א‪)H‬‬ ‫و‪R‬אًو‪S‬א‪`P($‬א א‪«MTK،/‬א *)‪,‬ق‪a'K‬א *‪/N‬א‪ /Tq)H‬‬ ‫دوא!א*( ‪ .='9‬‬ ‫אلא‪:‬א‪=9$‬ن‪/N* /‬א‪ )H‬ذج)‪،(ARCH-GARCH‬و‪ :.6 3JP(i,GN MN‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א‪0‬ول‪, :‬א *‪M76EXD9‬م ( ¨א *( ‪،‬و@‪i‬א*( א!א ‪ . A=7DE‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א ‪«:. J‬א *)‪,‬ق‪a'K‬א *‪E/D9‬א =ذ‪= /32M*((ARCH-GARCH)3‬ذج)‪،(ARCH‬‬ ‫و? ‪©2 _r‬א =ذ‪،3‬و{وطא‪T*H‬א@ ‪،‬و‪R‬אً‪Nd7‬א *‪/N‬א‪ . A*)H‬‬ ‫אلא!א ‪:‬א‪=9$‬ن‪ /D9* /‬و ‪ A}+©'V‬א *‪،.TG‬و‪iG, N MN‬א‪`- ($‬א * '‪ :‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א‪0‬ول‪, :‬א *‪ , ;XD9‬א¦=‪6 W‬ق)‪،(ERCE‬و? ‪&G {r‬אدא (= ‪6 t‬ق‬ ‫)‪ .(SCMCE‬‬ ‫א‪`P($‬א ‪, :. J‬و ‪ *{D2‬جא¦=‪/ -W‬ز ن)‪ A/D9* /32 M*(،(SCHB‬و‪ A6E'A/‬‬ ‫א *=<'‪ =N) `'-،.‬א ‪D2‬א * '‪M*/‬א‪t‬אً‪

(70) '/‬א *‪،‬א* ج‪،‬وא‪' $‬و‪R‬אًא '

(71) א *‪ .'TG‬‬. ‫» ‪«4‬‬.

(72) ‫ز ن‬/ -W=¦‫{א‬a;*= O? ‫א‬M'- ‫=*جא‬6 .TG* ‫א‬o+$‫'©א‬V a'K‫ق‬,)* ‫«א‬:` J ‫`א‬P($‫א‬ `'-r ‫وذ‬،(CPS-CEM II/A 42.5):/a' +O? ‫א‬8$‫א‬OMd ( ‫א‬W=¦‫و@=*جא‬،(SCHB) .‫ وא *ز‬A{‫א‬،GK =$‫ وא‬9H0‫א‬،‫=*ج‬$‫א‬9'(q `- (LdLiG, N MN‫و‬،(SCHB)‫ز ن‬/ -W=¦‫א‬/'T'()* ‫א‬H‫א‬M ‫א‬t‫א‬Y/a'K«:‫س‬#‫אلא‬ :.6 ‫ م‬9 ‫( !א >א‬7DE / =N`'-،H‫و‬M$‫=' א‬+ ‫א‬6G6G6 '2 _-‫א‬H‫א‬M ‫א‬, :‫و ل‬0‫`א‬P($‫א‬ 6-S‫ق‬d)‫א‬E|‫ذ‬،: , T*G A69@r ‫ذ‬jMZ‫وא‬،(567O*1 @M =|،'¦$‫وא‬ .H‫א‬M ‫א‬Q'=+ ‫א‬6G6G ‫אא‬T*H‫{طא‬lK*/|i2d$‫א =ذجא‬567j,9* ‫א‬ -‫א‬$ /‫و‬$‫א‬M9/‫'`و‬-، ( zt ) ,M9$‫='א‬+ ‫א‬6G6G6 i2d$‫ لא =ذجא‬9*H /N* ‫א‬, :. J ‫`א‬P($‫א‬ f G$‫وא‬+ =E=− /)H‫א‬/N* ‫א‬o2 *3/ T$‫א‬t‫א‬Y/ =N‫و‬،©'V* K،MT* ‫א‬،j 9* /ً‫א‬t‫א‬M*/‫¨א‬dJ ‫א‬ .U'G( ‫א‬.H0‫א‬ 9 (*‫א‬M9/‫و‬a| ،(ARCH-GARCH)‫) ذ ج‬H‫א‬/N* ‫א‬a'K‫ق‬, )* ‫«א‬:R 0‫ `وא‬J ‫`א‬P($‫א‬ X،%95TL:p K‫دא‬T A9'‫ن‬f ‫א‬9/.N‫(א‬6 . ‫א ( طא ?א‬E{‫'و‬2+ ‫'وא‬6E ‫א‬. ‫א ( طא ?א‬ .‫ )('&@?אא =عא = ذج‬E|. * /‫و‬.O=9R9/.N‫א (א‬3/. ‫نא ( طא ?א‬v9 «B ‫אא‬6 ‫אض‬9*H‫'א‬67 A'6 ! 'g* ‫א‬i@0‫ذ‬، A' ug*$‫א‬o2 *= ‫א‬i@0‫ض‬9/:?$‫א‬.A*= ‫و‬ *N‫;'א‬A= M*7‫'= א‬/، A/‫א _ د‬Cl6 OM°0‫א‬8' p ‫ א‬A'K3*6_,

(73) :_/H‫א‬M ‫?>א‬A/ @‫* د‬7‫א‬ 2 T ‫"א‬D' * ‫=א‬H‫و‬D I$‫א‬iH?/UTKt

(74) *‫א‬، H‫א‬M ‫ !א‬P

(75) g®‫@א‬S‫א‬$‫@?>א‬567: {‫א‬M=7 .:?$‫ א‬AS"‫و‬9$‫אא‬$‫א‬2 T ^0‫'א‬g

(76) * ‫א‬3 A=?=K،.T'()* ‫א‬8 ‫א‬Sg :?$‫אد@?>א‬M7'(HS =*A‫وא‬B ‫ !א‬/9_ /R?* ‫א‬R0‫א‬S5G| O‫*_ د‬N‫' سא‬T ‫אنא‬M'Xg e‫' !א‬4 ‫א‬567‫א]_ل‬r ?‫و‬، ! 9'($ /g e‫א (' !א‬567‫ ]_ل‬/&l69 .a‫א‬MV*H‫'

(77) 'א‬567‫ن‬, * ‫א‬E* ‫= א‬86) iu ،(1)(e-views ver2.0).@‫و‬g . Econometric Views version 2.0 (1). «5 ».

(78) ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬. ‫ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺗﻪ‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪ :‬ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﻛﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻃﺮﻕ ﻛﺸﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﻘﻄﺎﺏ‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬.

(79) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫د‪ :‬‬. ‫א نא

(80) د‪,$- .$/‬א‪* +‬א

(81) )א('אدوא‪" ##$%‬א!

(82) وא‪،‬ذن‬ ‫א‪9:‬جن‪7‬ودאًوא!قא‪,>9,-,-+?@'A 01234‬א‪* +‬א=ود‪،‬زد‪" #‬ذنא(;*א‪ :‬دא‪,2B‬‬ ‫وא‪,?I‬א !‪49G,H‬א‪ D9F‬א‪،,E‬א ‪D‬א‪,>93BRJ KLMN-' C‬א‪B+‬א ‪DO PQN،$‬‬ ‫א(;*وא(‪,+[9‬א]‪-L‬م @א ?[‪-LYZ‬אًو‪B+L‬אً‪UVW$!2X،‬ض‪B$S‬א ?'! ‪،,‬و_‪9‬ج;

(83) و^‬ ‫‪،.‬א(א‪34‬د‪g_c‬و‪d+/fR‬א !‪d+H'،ًe -‬א ‬ ‫‪a2R‬ذאא‪cً` YIP‬א !@ ‪ b‬‬ ‫‪" #$2‬א?‪hE‬א= ‪e^)@ #k0‬ل‪, $#‬א

(84) ‪،‬و;‪jA‬ول ‪4l‬אא‪k0I‬א‪+‬ق_‪g‬א

(85) ‬ ‫‪،.‬و‪)b‬‬ ‫ א;‪m,+‬ذجא‪f+-;:‬א !‪" #،,+‬ن‪+9‬ق_‪g‬א?‪$‬ذ جא(‪B+LY‬אًو‪-L‬אًא‪. 0I‬א‪-‬د ‬ ‫;‪ 9A‬و`ً ‪n o+#p‬א ‪XlI‬א(;;‪,‬א ‪q,-r‬אنא

(86) ‪ .‬‬ ‫‬ ‫א אول‪:‬א و א وو ‬ ‫ ‬. ‫‪lRt‬‬ ‫‪c2‬א(;ذ‪ 2'3?l‬ل‪،‬א‪t234‬א(‪f‬א‪X --C‬א‪:‬دא‪aB‬ن ‪a‬א

(87) (‪Nk ov‬و‪ 2@u‬‬ ‫‪A‬א ‪_f +‬ذא ‪ L ?$‬عא‪+‬قא! ‪,$‬وא‪،,OO0‬‬ ‫א‪:‬دא‪-'،(1)aB‬م ‪, $‬א

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(89) ‪،‬و‪ _4‬אز‪,$l‬א

(90) א {;!‪,‬‬ ‫و!‪ .|L2‬‬ ‫‪−1‬دل‪ :‬‬. ‫‪}9‬אً‪, -‬א(~‪,K M‬א ‪N,‬لא‪B‬א;א !‪p'،, -‬نא ‪XlI‬א(;;‪,‬א ‪4@ ,-r‬אאلא ‪S‬‬ ‫ ‪،,‬و`زא‪",$ k$!LD‬א? {" `‪)#,'3)#,‬א !‪ F?l$? ،k -‬وא‪W‬א ‪K‬א(‪, ?R‬‬ ‫א(^‪),#$. c‬א ‪q LXlI‬عא '‪,‬א !‪،, -‬و‪7.k$‬د‪a‬ود ‪4l.,-‬אא‪. $‬‬ ‫א ‪XlI‬و‪o;B:3B‬א‪0‬א‪,‬א ‪,$‬لא‪B‬א;א !‪،(2), -‬و'‪2L 2$‬و‪ R‬א ‪ .XlI‬‬ ‫‪−1−1‬א و!‪Ae^ /2BLa#

(91) :‬אאو‪,2‬א]‪) [|9p',K'،@_}?12‬א‪kI‬و

(92) ‪،‬‬ ‫‪

(93) L‬א(‪3،‬א‪،|0N}9‬و‪-12‬لא;

(94) א(‪"?q‬א‪|0N}9‬؛‪ .|?A/‬‬ ‫ سא ‪,K‬א‪),-[،Prévision?9p':, !9I‬א‪,K0‬א‪kI , :‬א‪Le‬א‪b;eb‬‬. ‫‪،Preavisum‬وא]‪L:Prea:$l.-vg_@@IX!-?L‬א(م‪،‬و‪:Vidère‬א‪،,2‬وא‪V,$ b‬‬ ‫א‪_L b‬د‪B‬א‪F‬وא;?ج! ‪ .‬‬ ‫)‪)(1‬א ‪]

(95) R‬م‪ #.‬א‪،[02 -‬ص‪.184‬‬ ‫)‪)(2‬א ‪]

(96) R‬ع‪v.‬א ‪،[00 -‬ص‪.9‬‬. ‫» ‪«7‬‬.

(97) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫א‪ًNe+P‬؛'‪p‬نא

(98) ‪X@', $#)#aB #‬و‪ X2-L‬א

(99) ‪mo? 2)#‬ذج‪-2E0N_2B‬م‪ ،'" #‬‬ ‫و‪W12‬א‪ e‬א! ‪,‬وא‪. , LB:‬א ‪K‬אא]‪Xb‬א}‪al‬א ‪B‬و;‪)B- ,‬א‪,-Y‬وא‪،.-‬ونא(‪B‬‬ ‫‪B+L‬א !‪lB+L) kb[ k -‬א )‪ .(1‬‬ ‫و‪X@', $#l

(100) '،4‬و‪ X2-L‬א

(101) ‪mo? 2)#‬ذج‪-2E0N_2B‬م‪،'" #‬و‪W2‬א‪ e‬‬ ‫א! ‪,‬وא‪. , LB:‬א ‪K‬אא]‪X@L‬א}‪al‬א ‪B‬و;‪)B- ,‬א‪,-Y‬وא‪.-‬ونא(‪B+LB‬א !‪kb[ k -‬‬ ‫ ‪lB+L)*2‬א )‪ .(2‬‬ ‫_`نא‪)2‬א ‪).YN‬א;‪}Ik$‬א

(102) وא? {‪@Iq‬موא‪,P^،N‬א‪+‬א[‪?;_

(103) E‬د‪@I‬مא

(104) _‪g‬‬ ‫א? { }‪X‬א א‪

(105) R‬א ‪?lR2.N،,‬وא‪W‬א ‪Kr‬א(‪QN،, ?R‬نא? {‪K X@2‬אא‪,EB+‬‬ ‫و }א‪l‬א‪0 :‬د‪,2‬وא‪,#$R:‬א ‪kYa-‬א[‪،, + 2RB0A‬א‪B@9‬دو‪،,?,‬و‪P‬ل‪;;BL‬‬ ‫‪g_.‬א‪XbC‬و‪0-2$? ،lS‬א

(106) ‪" #‬א {‪v‬אא‪ .(3),$b‬‬ ‫‪−2−1‬א " ‪ :‬‬. ‫‪A12‬א? {‪)2K‬א‪3، 9kI‬אد‪"#‬א? ‪E0^)@'،a‬א(‪3،o 9‬א‪:‬د‪MO;qo#‬א !‪،k -‬و`‬. ‫‪k$‬א[‪$? ،‬א

(107) )^‪E0‬א [ ‪k$‬א‪W0‬وא‪ .+‬‬ ‫'‪, +‬عא? { |`‪o? " #$2‬א?‪$‬ذجא‪،,2‬و` ‪ً$ #ً>@?1‬د ‪lkYً-‬א[ن‬ ‫ ?! ‪, $'،

(108) ,‬א? {‪" #$L‬א‪at‬א‪, EV‬وא '‪,‬א ‪,$‬وא‪, $‬لא}‪al‬א ‪B‬و;‪kX,‬‬ ‫عא? {‪g_f l‬א‪g_|?)I‬א ‪ .X‬‬ ‫و‪Xl‬א‪+‬قא ‪, $#,‬א? {‪2-L,-2l‬אא‪t‬א‪،o‬و?@‪,-2‬د‪g_, !9I‬א ‪,?2‬א‪,99‬א[@‪a‬‬ ‫א]‪B09 @ l ?L‬א‪B?b;:‬א ‪-‬و‪" #9‬دא‪ B‬س_‪t‬א‪B‬א‪I‬س‪ .‬‬ ‫‪−3−1‬א ‪$‬د‪_, $#l:#‬د‪B‬א‪F‬אא

(109) و‪W2،E0N_−2Bkbv|SP‬א‪, e‬א! ‪,‬وא‪. , LB:‬‬ ‫א ‪K‬א

(110) وא ‪K‬وא ‪K‬אא !‪،, -‬و‪#‬د‪4l4^2a‬אא?‪$‬ذجא[‪kb‬א‪ :‬‬ ‫‪ y = f ( x1 , x 2 , x 3 ,K) + u‬‬ ‫‪QN‬ن ‪kY$L1 y‬א}‪al‬א ‪B‬و;‪b2 ،,‬ن لא?‪$‬א‪0 :‬د‪،eY3‬א ‪K‬אא !‪@' x1 , x 2 , x 3 ,K , -‬‬ ‫א ‪K‬אא?}‪,‬א]‪!I1L@9-12‬و‪Xb‬א}‪X>NkY، y al‬א‪B$Y;:‬א‪m،‬א‪،,R9:‬ل‪m‬א!‪b‬ن‪ .‬‬ ‫‬ ‫‬. ‫)‪}9(1‬א ‪]

(111) R‬ع‪.‬ق‪ .‬د ‪،[79 -,‬ص‪.197‬‬ ‫)‪}9(2‬א ‪]

(112) R‬م‪.‬ن‪.‬אط‪،[83 -‬ص‪.66،65،61‬‬. ‫)‪}9(3‬ذ] ع‪v.‬א ‪،[00 -‬ص‪.11‬‬. ‫» ‪«8‬‬.

(113) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫_نא?‪$‬ذج‪)b‬ن‪bL-',I ً`bv4^2‬ن^‪,+‬و;‪,‬و‪,BS‬و‪ 2?#,Y Y‬א( ‪B‬א;‪,‬‬ ‫א}א‪l‬א ‪,‬وאو‪ .(1),2B‬‬ ‫ ‪[#,$ @' u‬א‪)# 1L,E‬א(^‪o+‬א‪-‬سو^‪o+‬א א ^ ‪,‬א?‪$‬ذج‪،‬و‪4‬א ‪K‬אא]‪4^{1L‬‬ ‫ ‪.‬א‪g_,': ،B #:‬אא‪k‬א[א‪,E‬א] ‪M‬و `‪)#tL1 @9$،M‬א‪I‬ق ‪.‬א[‪kb‬א‪--C‬‬ ‫ ‪, e‬وא[‪kb‬א‪ .2‬‬ ‫_نو‪R‬د‪|Ll‬א‪,$-‬א[א‪,E‬א?‪$‬ذج@‪laKPD9$‬א]‪+L‬א‪

(114) +‬א‪E0N:‬א‪Q~،, e $N:‬‬ ‫@‪$‬א‪@R‬א ‪_QN‬د‪B‬אج‪k‬אא‪k‬א ‪al} a!I‬א ‪B‬و;‪,‬א?‪$‬ذج‪p'،‬ن‪F?l‬دوًلא‪[#k‬א‪,E‬‬ ‫‪2-L, $#?#ًeY$'،^Gg_.N)luL@}2‬א‪, e‬א‪. , LB:‬א=‪0‬لא‪B‬א‪

(115) #‬وאא‪k‬א ‪a!I‬‬ ‫|‪,$kY‬א(‪B+‬א ! ‪,$،,+‬א(‪a‬א‪,E$b‬א !‪?l"- 2|9p'،_..., $‬دوًل א‪k‬‬ ‫א[א‪,E‬א ‪,I H‬א] ‪M‬و `‪ L,L# 2Bf lkY،M‬א=‪0‬لא‪B‬א‪،#‬وא‪ R‬א‪%‬אد‬ ‫ ‪-O‬لא ‪B‬و‪,#‬و _‪AeL‬א=‪0‬ل)‪ .(2‬‬ ‫‪−4−1‬א طط‪ :‬‬ ‫_نא‪#" #, R_)#aB #ld+H‬د)א!`?@‪:‬ذא‪kI9‬؟‪"،‬؟‪)2،‬؟‪ ،‬؟‪،‬و‪)#aB #|9‬‬ ‫‪, $#‬א‪#:‬אدא ‪-‬م *‪| $#‬א !‪Al -A@ k -‬و‪),#$‬א(‪l‬א‪_@'،A‬ذن‪* +2‬د‪,#,RB‬‬ ‫)א‪Bb :‬وא‪bI‬א‪) B " #3+?2|9$،3Bb :‬א

(116) !‪ .k -‬‬ ‫و)‪t2 @'c^,N9‬א‪,I¢‬א‪:‬دא‪,2B‬א(و‪g‬א]‪#‬א‪)l‬א‪E¢‬א(^‪،c‬و ‪g_,':‬نא‪t2d+H‬‬ ‫و‪d L2@'،, $}? 2k,I¢‬א‪ً LB‬و‪,I¢ ً-u‬א ‪،,‬و‪, $#,£ LXL‬א‪g_d+H‬א‪,+‬א]‪tL‬‬ ‫א?جא‪, $zE‬א‪،d +H‬و‪2-L@9‬و ن ‪9‬אعא;‪kE‬وא‪' 0‬א‪ -O ,P‬א(‪l‬א‪A‬وא?‪hE‬‬ ‫א !@'‪،,‬و‪4l‬אא ن ‪,--NkY $12‬א(‪, $,$ B,£L‬א‪>?'،d +H‬א‪,+‬א‪" #, R:‬א(;‪, ¤‬‬ ‫א! ‪p'،(3),-‬ذن‪)b‬א‪-‬ل ن'‪,‬א !‪k^c;lk -‬א‪, $‬א‪ .(4),++H‬‬ ‫'‪p‬ذא‪B‬د‪9‬א

(117) ‪ ,?;.K,$-‬د‪¥4lt9-'،,‬א‪!,$-‬و‪|$-,2‬א!?‪,‬א! ‪،,-‬و ;‪|$ d‬‬ ‫‪#‬د)א!?אא! ‪،,-‬و ‪m

(118) L‬ذج‪-LY‬אً !‪k;e‬א?‪mkY,‬ذج ‪?9A;)?b?R−z‬و‪V‬‬ ‫א‪k0I‬א‪،( 9Y‬و‪،,;;,IP£F¦[L@?b‬و‪l‬نא

(119) ‪X-‬א !‪X2.K , -‬א;?دאً_‪g‬א‪X-‬‬ ‫א‪4V,§B‬אא ‪K‬و‪ .¥N‬‬ ‫‬ ‫)‪}9(1‬א(‪bv‬لא ‪|LV,I H‬אא‪4l,‬אא‪QN،k0I‬א ‪K‬א !‪lk-‬א)‪QN،t‬نאא‪4^L,‬א[‪kb‬א‪:‬‬. ‫‪y = f ( t 1 , t 2 , t 3 , K) + u‬‬. ‫‬. ‫)‪}9(2‬א ‪]

(120) R‬ع‪.‬ق‪،[02-,+#.‬ص‪" #A 105‬א‪I‬א‪K$ ,$N:‬א[א‪.E‬‬ ‫)‪}9(3‬א ‪]

(121) R‬ع‪.‬س‪،[02-O .‬صص‪. 339 - 253‬‬. ‫)‪)(4‬א ‪ ]

(122) R‬ع‪v.‬א ‪،[00 -‬ص‪.12‬‬. ‫» ‪«9‬‬.

(123) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫‪−2‬א و א وو‪ :‬‬ ‫_ن‪r-L‬و‪ [L‬א ‪K‬אא]‪[lB_¨2‬وعא(‪$#‬لא ‪D‬אא‪kR،)l‬א‪:‬دא‪B‬א‪,$lFBL‬א‪d+H‬‬ ‫وא

(124) !‪#!2d+H'.k -‬א ?}‪,$‬א ‪l)#QO‬א‪,-+?A‬و‪،,@R),$ #‬و)‪c^,@R‬א‪P‬ل_‪g‬‬ ‫ق?‪,-+‬و‪¥4l -O,$ #‬א(‪l‬א‪I24،A‬א‪,+[9 !?Ld+H‬א ?}‪,$‬و‪lg_@@RL‬א‪7A‬د‪a‬‬ ‫‪QN،@ # I1‬نא ‪ld+H k2‬א! ‪F‬א[א‪, SI'،(Random Behavior)E‬א‪bLd+H‬ن‬ ‫> ‪،J‬א‪4^ W$!2|9p'd+H‬א د‪aB‬‬ ‫‪'0L‬א ‪B)#aB #2‬دود'ل)‪$ (Reaction‬א وא [‪k‬א]‪© !L‬‬ ‫‪o[9‬א ‪@?I!L‬א ?}‪2 '،,$‬א‪,O'b,N| [2$'a$!,I0 "- 2d+H 4^2`34‬א?אن‬ ‫و'‪. , e 2$‬א

(125) وא‪)b|9l،d+H‬א‪B #‬א(ول‪, N‬و^‪a+‬א‪،9Y‬ونא‪ 29Y‬و‪L2‬‬ ‫?>‪ª,‬ول‪.‬و‪2‬نא‪%‬ل'‪p‬ن

(126) ‪- ,$l‬م ‪, $‬א‪ .,++H‬‬ ‫و;‪?9A‬ول‪4l‬אא ‪-‬مא?‪-‬طא‪ :,‬‬ ‫‪−1‬‬. ‫‪,$l‬א

(127) و`א;‪H‬א|‪،‬‬. ‫‪−2‬‬. ‫א;‪H‬א ‪9‬א

(128) ‪،‬‬. ‫‪−3‬‬. ‫אא‪k‬א {‪X>N" #au‬א ‪،‬‬. ‫‪−4‬‬. ‫‪2‬א

(129) א‪I‬ل‪،‬‬. ‫‪−5‬‬. ‫א !‪2‬א(;;‪.

(130) ,‬‬. ‫و;‪! 9A‬د‪|Ll‬א?‪ : 2$*L¦ P‬‬ ‫‪−1−2‬א وא و)(אدא‪c2:‬א(;ذ"‪2'3?l‬ل"א‪t1234‬א(‪f‬א‪--C‬‬ ‫ ‪X‬א‪:‬دא‪aB‬ن ‪a‬א

(131) (‪Nk ov‬و‪lR@u‬א‪:‬دא‪-'،(1)aB‬م ‪, $‬א

(132) [‪g_? P2WOPkb‬א‪AV‬‬ ‫א ‪_f +‬ذא ‪ L ًe'?$‬عא‪+‬قא! ‪,$‬وא‪,OO0‬وא‪" #9$#‬א(;‪z‬א ‪,$‬وא‪+‬قא‪,2‬وא‪, $,E0N:‬‬ ‫א

(133) ‪ .‬‬ ‫_نא‪bI‬א ?}‪Xr‬א! ‪, $‬א?‪4I‬وא‪;:‬אدوא@ { ‪" #XE k -!$‬א

(134) وא‪`$N:‬א]‪@L‬א‪@%‬‬ ‫א‪:‬دא‪o" #,2B‬א‪9b:‬א ‪ .,N‬‬ ‫'‪,I‬א?[א ‪,I H‬א]‪-L‬م @א {;!)‪!L‬و‪9¬!L،3B‬ج‪،‬وא א‪B‬دא [‪.!,2‬‬ ‫א(دא‪o‬א‪0 :‬د‪7"- L3‬ود‪_a‬ذא‪X2‬א‪$#:‬د‪ L" #‬د ‪،,-‬و)‪ ?l‬زא

(135) و‪! ,$NaB‬‬ ‫א‪I‬ل ‪،,!;{$‬و) ‪Xl.‬אא‪k‬א]د_‪g‬א‪$l:‬مא א‪¥4@ 2‬א(دא‪:(2) 2a‬‬ ‫ز‪2‬د‪a‬و!‪,#9.‬א ‪9‬א‪,E0N:‬و^‪! o[9_ ,P‬مא‪o0N:‬א ‪,OPB- QN،,00H‬א ‪9‬‬ ‫ ‪,OPB-‬א?‪ .hE‬‬ ‫)‪}9(1‬א ‪]

(136) R‬م‪ #.‬א‪، [01-‬ص‪.184‬‬ ‫)‪}9(2‬א ‪]

(137) R‬س‪RB.‬ل‪،[84 -‬ص‪.9‬‬. ‫»‪«10‬‬.

(138) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫[‪n ,B‬א ‪k .YN‬א!‪k;e‬א?‪,‬א]‪B+LzbL‬א}א‪l‬א‪0 :‬د‪,2‬وא‪t#,#$R:‬א)‪ .‬‬ ‫‪hE9B@¢‬א ‪MO‬אنא‪-‬سא‪0 :‬د‪،3‬وא]א;@'‪D‬א ‪9QO‬אعא‪ e‬א ‪n F ;)#a‬‬ ‫א ‪K‬אوא‪F ! ً L@l‬א‪ .C‬‬ ‫‪B$‬א‪g_aBv:‬ن‪, $#‬א

(139) }‪X‬א {;!‪F¦[L‬א?‪P‬א‪ :(1),‬‬ ‫`‪)b‬א‪-‬م ‪, $‬א

(140) _`‪a¦'k¢‬ز?‪7,‬د‪ ،a‬‬ ‫‪, $#-L‬א

(141) ‪( ? @R‬وعא];א‪|R‬א {;!‪,‬א !‪_|9(،k -‬ذאنא(‪zb#‬ذ‪p'،‬ن‪, $#‬‬ ‫א

(142) ‪ ،,2SW 0L‬‬ ‫‪bLL‬و‪,I¢‬א

(143) ;;ً‪4^, $#,'a#-t1L,§BL+

(144) £" #‬א‪-‬א‪ .B‬‬ ‫'‪p‬ذن‪h?!9‬ن‪, $#‬א

(145) ‪,2lR,!l‬و‪،,!;{$ , !? ,2‬وא‪%‬ولא‪`Xl?W2‬‬ ‫א;‪H‬אא

(146) א {;!‪ .,‬‬ ‫)دول)‪():(1−1‬אدאמא وא ‬ ‫א‪.‬دא ‬. ‫א و‪ +,-‬‬. ‫• א!א>‪ 3B‬א

(147) ‬. ‫א‪0‬ق ‬ ‫)‪ @v6g_3‬‬. ‫‪2‬א(‪l‬א‪ A‬‬ ‫א

(148) ‪ +‬‬. ‫• ‪!L‬א‪9:‬ج ‬. ‫‪d+/‬א‪9:‬ج ‬. ‫‬ ‫)‪ @v6g_3‬‬. ‫‪!L‬א ‪H‬ون ‬ ‫א

(149) ‬. ‫• א!‪ 2‬‬. ‫‪ @v12g_6‬‬. ‫‪d+‬א!‪ 2‬‬ ‫‪!L‬א‪ ,?2‬‬. ‫• א ‪ ,‬‬. ‫‪ /‬‬. ‫‪B+^!L‬א‪ A0‬‬ ‫• א ‪,‬א! ‬. ‫א אز‪ 9‬‬. ‫• א‪ d+H‬‬. ‫א‪d+H‬א‪¦;:‬א‪ >L‬‬ ‫א ‪2‬د‪،[J.C.Usunier-82]:#‬ص‪ .8‬‬. ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫)‪}9(1‬א ‪]

(150) R‬س‪، [98-3+#.‬ص‪.62‬‬. ‫»‪«11‬‬. ‫‪@v18g_15‬אً ‬. ‫‪?;3‬א ‬.

(151) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫‪−2−2‬אدא "א و ‪ :‬‬. ‫_نא

(152) ‪K ?2‬ن‪b2‬ن ‪v1‬אً‪.!O‬א(دא‪،o‬وא

(153) א‪،,2? 1234‬و‪)$2‬د‪,#,RB‬‬ ‫‪)ً !9‬א ‪)b,‬א‪I;:‬د‪#|?a‬دאً)‪,+[9‬א ?}‪،,$‬و‪¥4lXl 2$'. 9‬א‪H;:‬א ‪p‬ز)‪ :(1‬‬ ‫‪−1−2−2‬دאنא‪".‬ج‪ :‬‬ ‫‪, $##!L‬א

(154) ‪R‬و‪,‬א‪9:‬ج‪9:'،‬ج§ و'‪$b ً-‬א ‪*L12|9$،, +‬א‪:‬א ?! ‪,‬‬ ‫[א‪o‬א אوא אدوא @‪،$‬و‪p'4‬ن‪#‬د‪$#‬لא‪9:‬ج‪¥2)b‬وא‪/‬ذ_‪R‬א‪o‬אא‪2‬د‪a‬وא‪4lnIH‬א‬ ‫אد‪g_A12.‬ذنא[‪2

(155) +!L,‬א`א];‪$.@ K[LX‬ن‪F?l‬א‪)2‬א(;‪, ¤‬א]‪ L‬‬ ‫א‪L" #@ #, R:‬א' ‪9‬א א ‪،,‬و)‪, Y‬ذ‪2,RNF?lkl:‬د‪, a‬א ‪

(156) ?0‬؟‪،‬و‪X;kl‬‬ ‫ذ‪ 2)#‬א[א‪o‬وא‪l،(Leasing)R‬א‪,$b‬א]*ن‪|!I? @>?2‬؟‪،‬و‪l‬א‪,$b‬א]‪lr'2‬‬ ‫)^‪e‬ل‪B‬د‪))2‬א )؟‪kl،‬א(‪[$ ^B‬وع‪*L‬א‪a2R‬وא‪$;:‬א‪B‬א‪$#:‬د‪B" #‬د‪ )2‬‬ ‫‪)2^G‬؟‪ .‬‬ ‫‪)−2−2−2‬لא ‪ :#6‬‬. ‫‪*r +2‬א( ?! ‪X} ,‬א [و‪*LL#‬א‪:‬אא !‪،k -‬وذ‪ 2)#‬א ‪" #V0N.ً-‬‬. ‫א‪،RN‬و‪)W 02‬א‪2" #*0‬א [¦‪l -2‬א‪_A‬دא‪_|LB‬ذא‪,$A2‬א‪RN:‬א !‪), -‬‬ ‫א(‪A?P‬א ‪_،,I H‬ذو ونא

(157) ‪2+2‬א [¦‪g_2‬א‪$#:‬د‪t^" #‬א‪|L‬א! ‪,-‬א] ‪)# /‬‬ ‫א

(158) א ‪, N‬א‪-‬د‪ .,‬‬ ‫‪)−3−2−2‬لא ول‪ :‬‬. ‫)א`א‪[3,RC‬وع)א [‪'L

(159) 2B‬א‪k2$‬א‪،|L $#;!12" #,}'O$ b‬و}‪X‬א [و‪#‬‬ ‫`‪b2‬ن‪)a $@2‬א(אلא‪H;¬al%‬אم‪k2kI1L@'،‬א‪ $‬אد‪H; ,2‬אمא‪V‬‬ ‫א‪،,P‬وא‪¦ :‬אض)‪0‬د‪k2$c^B‬א(‪,+[9‬وא‪ $‬א]‪)" #ً -LkY‬א !‪c‬א د‪،‬وذ‬ ‫‪2‬د‪a‬א ‪,‬و‪S‬א ‪،,r‬و‪#!2‬א

(160) ‪X>N2" #‬א(אلא ‪, +‬و'‪k‬א ‪0‬د‪kR)B‬‬ ‫א‪0C‬ل‪ .@ #‬‬ ‫‪)−4−2−2‬لא ‪ :‬‬. ‫‪H!L‬م_دא‪aB‬א!‪X B 2‬א א

(161) |‪)Y‬ل‪)bQN،‬א‪v¦;:‬د |‪2‬א‪e#:‬ن‪#،‬د‬ ‫‪`RB‬א

(162) ‪،‬א‪0C‬ل‪،X@ 2BL،X@ #‬א‪v:‬א‪ .X@ #A‬‬ ‫و ‪2 2‬א ‪X>N" #|++/‬א(‪$#‬لא];‪-‬م @א‪a¦I‬א‪-‬د‪

(163) '،,‬א!?‪W 0123‬دא‪,!EBa‬‬ ‫و

(164) א;¦א‪,>L‬א ‪،‬وא

(165) א

(166) ;?‪KL3k$t@RL+23‬א‪ KLo‬א}و‪A‬وא^‪Ae‬‬. ‫)‪}9(1‬א ‪]

(167) R‬م‪.‬ع‪.‬א‪،[88 -XN‬ص‪. 85‬‬. ‫»‪«12‬‬.

(168) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫אא

(169) א‪" # I‬א

(170) ‪$.‬نא

(171) א[@‪2)rb$123‬א )א‪

(172) b‬אא

(173) !‪kY,#‬א‪c!q¢IN:‬‬ ‫א@دא‪C‬وز‪2‬د‪،|L‬و‪X#L‬א ? א‪,I‬وא‪,@R‬א}و‪A‬א‪,EB+‬و‪S‬א ®‪ .,‬‬ ‫‪$‬ن‪, $‬א

(174) ‪@!12`,$l‬ن @ ?! ‪!L,I¢,‬א א‪B‬دא [‪،,2‬و‪tL‬ز‪¥4l‬א(‪,P^,$l‬א?‪-‬ط‬ ‫א‪ :,‬‬ ‫‪k@!L‬א‪-‬א‪B‬אא‪d+Hq,P‬א‪ ،¢‬‬ ‫א

(175) دא‪$‬لא‪)$X@I¢LX;)24‬א! ‪X‬א @‪،‬و‪4‬א‪tRC‬א‪h‬א‪ ،)2b‬‬ ‫א

(176) ‪K‬אא]‪)b‬ن‪" #+L‬א!‪#‬א‪،k$ ,99-‬و‪4‬א‪ .#-‬‬ ‫_نא ‪,}Ne‬א]‪)b‬א;?‪)XS |9l ;X @R‬ن‪kb‬و‪`,I¢‬א;‪H‬אمא

(177) ‪S،‬ن‪¥4l‬‬ ‫א`‪k O@? $'k#IL‬א‪Xb‬א‪)kEV‬א א '‪ .a‬‬ ‫_ن‪L‬א^‪ k‬א‪, $#Xl!2@? $'E¢‬א‪/‬ذא‪-‬א‪B‬א‪c!" #‬א‪B:‬אم ‪)b`QN،,!;{$‬‬ ‫ ‪,!;{$‬ن‪-L‬م ‪.d+H‬دونن‪b2‬ن‪F?l‬א‪IL‬ق! ‪.‬و‪g_"!L,!;{3" #K ?24،@IE¢‬‬ ‫‪, _hE9 -‬ن‪ $L‬و‪QN),9‬א;‪+V$‬قא

(178) א ‪

(179) +!L"N,I H‬א‪

(180) b‬א‪K‬אא]‬ ‫ ‪d7M‬א {;!‪،,‬و‪4l‬א @ د‪KL" #aB‬و‪k2L‬א ?‪o‬אً‪" #‬א א‪a2%‬א '‪ar‬‬ ‫‪،@2‬وא[‪kb‬א‪O‬א א‪,$l?. 2‬א ‪,‬א

(181) )‪}9 kR‬مא א‪9‬א‪،,22-‬‬ ‫و‪tL‬א‪,9‬א א‪#:ً;;,22-‬אدא‪,9‬א [¦‪2‬وא‪9:‬ج‪،‬و‪v‬אً ;

(182) א [وع ‪lB #‬א ‪B‬د‬ ‫א‪ BªzE‬وא ‪ -‬א?‪,2-‬א]‪d+^k2$@ #$2‬א [وع‪ .‬‬ ‫_ذن‪p'،‬نא!א‪* +2Q2C‬א‪#

(183) k‬د‪)kEl‬א وא ‪).2e‬א(‪ B‬موא]*‪@Nv‬و‪l!IL‬‬ ‫و_‪#‬אد‪،V, -! L‬وذ)‪, $#k@!LkR‬א‪/‬ذא‪-‬א‪B‬אو_‪#‬אدא‪¦;:‬א‪>L‬دא^‪k‬א {;!‪ .,‬‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫»‪«13‬‬.

(184) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫‬ ‫ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!‬ ‫א و‬ ‫‬ ‫‬. ‫زא"א !!!!!‬. ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬. ‫א‪,9‬א‪:‬دא‪aB‬‬. ‫‬. ‫א‪,9‬א‪9:‬ج‬. ‫א‪_,9‬دא‪ aB‬‬ ‫א ‬. ‫‬ ‫‬. ‫א‪,9‬א(‪ B‬‬. ‫‬ ‫‬ ‫‬. ‫א‪,9‬א(‪ B‬‬. ‫‬. ‫‬. ‫א‪E‬א ‪2B0‬‬. ‫א ‪2B0‬א‪E‬‬. ‫‬ ‫א ‪76‬ل)‪:(1−1‬א و ")‪9‬א وאز"א ‪$‬د‪ #‬‬ ‫א ‪2‬د‪]:#‬מ‪ <.‬دא‪،[01−‬ص‪ .214‬‬. ‫‪−3−2‬א وאلא @‪) ?#‬מא ‪:‬‬. ‫‪-L‬م}‪X‬א ‪2-L" #‬אא‪k‬א‪،,RB‬وא

(185) ~>‪X‬א א]‪@ 2‬א [وع_ذאא;‪" #$‬‬ ‫و‪|#‬א‪،,C‬و‪¥4l" #* K2‬א?}‪a‬א‪B #‬نא

(186) ‪B^ov‬ج‪+9)#‬قא [وع‪،‬و‪)b‬א?}‪a‬א(‪Y‬‬ ‫وא ‪kY$L,‬א‪B #‬نא !‪,>9D‬א(‪N‬אلא‪0 :‬د‪,2‬وא?'! ‪,‬א‪،d-',RB‬و‪,>9ً2@?b‬‬ ‫‪' 0L‬א [وع‪X>O'.|!I9‬א ‪e#: u2‬ن‪،‬و;;‪,‬א(;‪،B‬و!‪.‬و‪2+L‬א ?>وא@دא‬ ‫א!‪,-2‬א(^‪،c‬و @‪4‬א'‪ a#B0L??b|9p‬א‪), Lk

(187) @?kR2،, 2 h‬אא‪k‬و‪)¯euL‬‬ ‫‪¥4l‬אא‪،k‬و‪)b‬و‪" #‬א‪)XS‬نא‪" #.$E-‬א [وع ‪B21‬ننא‪'0‬א ‪" #u{;,I H‬א وא(‪ B‬‬ ‫א‪a¦I‬א‪-‬د‪p'،,‬ن‪¥4lhE9‬א‪ ., @ !N)b`'0‬‬ ‫و)א ‪?0LI‬אא‪k‬א ‪,I H‬א]‪X>Nu{1L‬א _‪#g‬א‪)bk‬א‪،@ XbO‬و^‪)b`c‬א‪ .@ XbO‬‬ ‫'אא‪k‬א]‪)b$12‬א‪P?#X'@ XbO‬א ‪,¤‬אא^ ‪[$ ,‬وعوא(‪,+[9‬א‪,++H‬א]‪ ،@ #+!2‬‬ ‫و ‪¥4l

(188) /‬אא‪n k‬א‪-‬دא]‪ r L‬א'א א‪B‬د‪،‬و)א(‪" #, Y‬ذ‪ :(1)49‬‬ ‫‪a2R

(189) ; ‬و‪2+L‬א‪ ،,-‬‬ ‫א;‪H‬אم;*‪L‬ز‪،a2R

(190) 2‬‬ ‫)‪}9(1‬א ‪]

(191) R‬‬. ‫م‪ #.‬א‪، [01-‬ص‪187‬‬. ‫»‪«14‬‬.

(192) ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬ ‫‪@RaoI2+L‬زא

(193) ‪،‬‬ ‫א!‪ ،‬‬ ‫א‪e#:‬ن‪،‬‬ ‫‪bL‬א?[طא!‪،-2‬‬ ‫‪aoI‬א‪@%‬زא‪:‬دא‪،3B‬‬ ‫א א‪B‬دא ‪ .,‬‬ ‫אא‪k‬א]`‪)b‬א‪@ XbO‬وאא‪k‬א‪X1',RB‬א?‪P‬א ‪,¤‬א]‪[$ z‬وع;‪@ #a+‬א ‪c‬‬ ‫א‪#@'،0-‬א‪k‬א ‪,¤‬א‪,RB‬وא]‪ : 2XL‬‬ ‫אא‪k‬א!;‪,‬؛‪tLQN‬א‪C‬و‪f‬وא‪. 'e‬אولو‪ r-L‬א(وعא!;‪,‬א?‪'e^)#,£‬א‪kb‬‬ ‫א!;‪,‬ذא‪ u‬و ‪, $#" #v‬א‪d+H‬وא

(194) ‪ .‬‬ ‫אא‪k‬א‪0 :‬د‪,2‬؛‪uLQN‬א [‪?

(195) 2B‬א‪N‬א ‪0 :‬د‪,2‬א‪QN) ,‬و‪¦'lB‬א‪B‬وאجو!د‬ ‫_ ‪0‬د‪،3‬وא]‪{L‬د‪g_3‬א‪u‬א‪ :‬وא! ‪, $#" #°‬א

(196) ‪ .‬‬ ‫א ‪,‬א‪" #,bC‬א?[طא ؛‪ILQN‬ضא‪R_ً9NbC‬א‪o‬א‪,#9" #,$}9" #‬א!

(197) א ?>‪,‬‬ ‫وא‪@LIP‬و;‪, $#" #u{12XlB‬א

(198) ‪ .‬‬ ‫א!‪b‬ن؛‪, $#uLQN‬א

(199) دא!‪ b‬ن‪،‬و‪L‬ز‪X@2‬א‪K%‬א‪¤'*!N‬א(‪B$#‬وא‪،z?%‬و‪, !9‬‬ ‫א?‪$‬א!‪9b‬و‪#‬دאא‪Fe@;:‬وא‪ .,'-Y‬‬ ‫אא‪k‬א‪,?-‬؛‪u{LQN‬אא‪k‬א‪" #,?-‬א

(200) ‪،‬وذ‪,>9‬א‪B+‬א‪R?b‬א !‪$‬وא‪34‬‬ ‫‪{2‬د‪nI^g_3‬א(;‪,>9B‬א‪I±‬ضא‪)XS b‬א‪-‬אא ‪B+ , N0‬א‪ .-‬‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫אא‪k‬א‪,#$R:‬؛و‪k$[L‬אدאوא‪X-‬א‪,#$R:‬א!‪aE‬وא‪a-‬א[א‪,E‬وא^‪k‬א‪، -‬و‪X>N‬א‪B$Y;:‬א ‬ ‫و‪L‬ز‪" # @2‬א‪#+-‬א‪0 :‬د‪,2‬و!‪c‬א ?'!‪,‬א!قو^‪,+‬א‪;:‬אدوא‪ 20‬א [وعوאא‪*E‬‬ ‫و‪ -L‬א(;‪B‬و @‪, $#" #u{L‬א

(201) ‪ .‬‬ ‫و‪t12‬א

(202) ‪X-L, 0N‬אא‪k‬א‪,RB‬א]‪ $#" #u{1L‬א [و ع‪،‬و‪4‬א א ‪B‬دאא^ ‪,‬‬ ‫وא(‪l‬א‪A‬א]‪@ #+!L‬א‪:‬دא‪.aB‬و ‪¥4lD+S$‬א ل'¦‪)a‬א) ‪$‬אزدאد‪,$l‬א ?‪²‬א‪RB‬‬ ‫(‪I2|9‬ض دאًو‪7‬دא‪u{L‬א [وع‪ .‬‬ ‫و‪o+#_K ?2‬א ?'!‪−,P^,I0 −,‬وز‪ ً9‬אً‪2-L‬א א !‪،, -‬و‪)b‬א‪).#9. $‬א ?'!‪ :,‬‬ ‫‪−‬א ?'!‪. ,‬א‪#?0‬א ‪،( Interindustry Competition),I H‬و‪l‬א]‪XL‬א‪' 0‬א]‪g_A@L‬‬ ‫‪،c‬و‪Y$‬ل‪" #‬ذא ?'!‪]#?P. ,‬א‪* 0‬‬ ‫_‪S‬א‪o‬א !@ ‪.b‬وא [¦‪v" #)2‬א‪,?,#?P>?o‬دون^ ‬ ‫وא( ?م‪،‬وא‪eN_)b)24‬ل ‪b$@?¯e‬نא^ ‪)n‬א ?>‪،‬وאلא‪p'،e@;:‬نאل‪ I‬‬ ‫م‪#‬د ‪R‬א¯)א‪#?0‬א]‪" #z'?L‬א^‪k‬א ‪ |'AJ 0 ‬א;‪,+‬א !@ ‪ .‬‬ ‫»‪«15‬‬.

(203) ‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻃﺮﻗﻪ‬: ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ 34‫א‬l‫و‬،( Intra-Industry Competition)aN‫אא‬,#?0‫א‬#‫[و‬. @',!'? ‫א?عא^)א‬−A #‫دא [و‬#KL 2)# ً‫א‬o‫;א‬،,#?0‫א‬k^‫دא‬,!'? ‫אلא‬NKL‫ذא‬p'،,!'? ‫)א‬#,E[‫א‬abI‫)א‬# 21 ً# Lu;, -! ‫א א‬X>N‫ن‬p'،>? ‫א‬X$0L‫و‬, ‫وא‬,9e#:‫@א‬+[9KL 2)#‫و‬،,!'? ‫א‬ . uLV‫ن‬b2‫)ن‬b.!'? ,P‫>א!א‬L‫^א;¦א‬L3'kY ‫و‬،4 :(1)‫ل‬B ‫א وא‬#−4−2

(204) Lg_3‫{د‬L]‫א‬2 ‫د)א‬#. $‫)א‬b|9`_،³C‫ @א‬z،k‫د)אא‬#" #‫ل‬I‫א

(205) א‬$2 :(2) 2$'lR9]‫وא‬،k' mau{ ‫א‬k‫אא‬kY‫وذ‬،,RB‫وא‬, ^‫אא‬k‫ذאא‬k^2‫و‬،B #:‫א‬au{ ‫א‬k‫

(206) אא‬£4^− X>C‫א‬I?L" #‫[وع‬$ ,I H ‫א‬E¢‫א‬aB ‫و‬،|!'?‫[وعو‬kb, !? ‫وא‬a-‫א‬k‫א‬#‫و‬،,#?0‫א‬ .|

(207) ‫א‬ :(Accuracy)‫א د‬−A. qB‫ل‬Y ‫א‬k ;" '،| ,+ L ‫א‬b‫)א‬#‫ل‬q¥B #‫א‬K ?2`|9p'،k‫אא‬4l,$l)XS‫ "א‬#‫_ذو‬ .,IL|I bL‫و‬,- ‫د‬ShE9g_3‫{د‬12|9(،(.b @! ‫א‬3B‫ع‬e+;).

(208) Lf ; !21 :(Flexibility)"‫و‬# ‫א‬−!). K ?2`‫و‬،B #:‫א‬E ‫א‬Sk -! ‫א‬4^ W$!L‫و‬،aK ‫א‬A‫א}و‬XEe^D ‫)و‬k2Lg_‫ج‬k‫'א‬ )#, S ‫א‬,9‫א و‬#‫א [و‬X} r-O1L‫و‬،2-‫א‬o+^‫و‬A‫א}و‬¥4lo| 2L)b`ً‫א‬R

(209) ‫نא‬b2‫ن‬ ‫א‬4l +L‫و‬aE!‫אلא‬N(‫א‬o−(‫_ذאمא‬−| 2L‫@و‬v,ueu‫@و‬vk,2@9 ‫

(210) א‬LO' 2 k ‫א א

(211) @و‬,9B- 2)#‫@وذ‬L‫א

(212) ذא‬,-2,R‫)א‬b$12$.

(213) ‫א‬a " #k2‫א‬ k2L‫و‬،‫ دق‬Lg_‫ل‬P‫א‬k ;‫א'وذ‬j:‫א‬f ;2lAV‫وא‬،'e^:‫א'وא‬j:‫א‬ .k -! ‫وقوא(;*א‬I‫א‬ :(Plausbility)9‫و‬C‫א و‬−‫د‬. *;('،|_‫ل‬P‫א‬DH;‫א]א‬,-2+‫دא‬-#:‫ "א‬#ً‫א‬B‫ن د‬b2‫مא

(214) *ن‬H!234‫א‬2 '. .)22 ‫)א‬Yb, !? bv

(215) ‫ن‬bL‫)ن‬b‫ن‬00H ‫نא‬E0N:‫@_`א‬$@I2`]‫א‬a- ‫א‬,E0N:‫א‬ . 16‫ص‬،[00 - ‫א‬v.‫

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