قياس مساهمة الزكاة في التنمية الاقتصادية « دراسة حالة قطر للفترة 1995-2014

Texte intégral

(1)313. 2018

(2) 02

(3) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456 . íè^’jÎ÷]íéÛßjÖ]»ì^ÒˆÖ]íÛâ^ŠÚŒ^éÎ. C2014I1995ìË×Ö†ŞÎíÖ^uí‰]…D . **êÚæˆ§êËŞÖK*ëæøÖ]‚fÂífÏÂK @ @@˜ƒÜß !"#$ % &

(4) '( )

(5) * + ,- ./ :

(6)

(7)

(8) "673 !"#$ % &

(9) '( >

(10) ?

(11) "4 @A3 9: ;< = 801

(12) 2345 "673 ENO ?

(13) "4 P 0$

(14) 731 ('B ,2014−1995 &BCD EF4 1 % 01

(15) 2345 R U3 VR'EW "X35 01

(16) 2345 YSTW )- Z $ % [3>

(17) 0$ = ST* \W ]

(18) 7 1EC ^"2 ST = ?

(19) "# % 0(R'E ,01

(20) 2345 "673 Y

(21) 03

(22) A#6 % _` R U3 ,1

(23) 2345

(24) A#a % "673 YST6 !Db X" \c

(25) b dA35 ST &

(26) '( EN- 0$ ./ ?

(27) "# hEF37 X' 8DVD UX35 ,1

(28) 2345 e

(29) Af gc

(30) 2 1990 m

(31) 7 UcX &3W )O ]

(32) E 63bW HDI 0iV "673 ST = YST no mp3

(33) ^ no q"#0 ,01

(34) 2345 "673D

(35) V'E

(36)

(37) "# rs60* ,. ;< 8!c5 t"b +3 ST EbW u

(38) 3' ,"` &0 &

(39) "P :"E U3 FVEW Y

(40) V35 1b3W 5 w<X v ,1

(41) 2345 ?

(42) "# ,Uc

(43) 2P r"D3 8D m

(44) b

(45) x my ST ;\c

(46) b dA35 ;\| ]

(47) 7 1EC ^"2 ;01

(48) 234 "67 ;&

(49) 'e :"P

(50) 3CW YXDz. !" ،$%‫ )( א' א‬،*%+ ,-‫ א‬. ('‫ א‬/ ? ?

(51) * 80‫א‬12‫א‬3,435$67,(89:('‫א‬$%+ ,-‫א‬5 ;<-‫*א'>=א‬%+ ,-‫א‬ okbabde@gmail.com. 80‫א‬12‫א‬،$%‫)(א' א‬3*%+ ,-‫א‬. ('‫א‬/،

(52) ** 2018~07~08 : V# }0

(53) 2018~06~20 :

(54) }0

(55) . lotfimekhzoumi39@gmail.com. @ @@@@@@@@NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN@@@@‹öa§a@@ð†aìÛa@òÈßbu https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/PresentationRevue/202.

(56) 2018

(57) 02

(58) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. 314. 8ARDL eW "7( Y

(59) x

(60) V36D 5 w<6 ;0iV "673 ‚éã³ @O D !"#3 Ub ,"D#3 1

(61) 2345 % 01

(62) 2345

(63) " @- !#3 % Y

(64)

(65) " Y1- V2 ,0

(66) 3

(67) " ' 0#7 "

(68) Z3

(69) " rz ,1

(70) 2345 9e3D `" 01

(71) 2345

(72) " )O @ !"#$

(73) A6 0#7 "

(74) Y535 "b ,r"W YEs 0e % b = (zEW "\z

(75) A6"6` % 01

(76) 2345 Y

(77)

(78) " @ X' ,1

(79) z )o R 1'E

(80) FV )p3D 01TW YSTW )- = 67 ?

(81) zb )o R ,[33 9X ,1

(82) 2345 67 !"#$ ./ "673 !"#$ % )

(83) "* 888 "

(84) #s "X35 Y5

(85) W 6 "Dz 01

(86) 2345 801

(87) 2345 % [7 ,U ,1

(88) 2345 m

(89) 7 % _D3 5 "

(90) 0#7

(91) " mAC 9

(92) ' 9/ Y1O 0 7 30 ,@O

(93) 0 @35 -V0 # ,Ub 1

(94) 2345 1

(95) VW = )c

(96) # 1

(97) 2345 9- X' 8U ]A76D

(98) # &c

(99) C m

(100)

(101) : FVEW ^"

(102) O D

(103) C 0#7 "

(104) Y1O

(105)

(106) V3 ./ sz 70 U3 &

(107) '( &1- ;D360 " )p3 V % )A 0*

(108) &#

(109) ,CD3pW 01

(110) 2345

(111) " Y1- ENO 6W 801

(112) 2345 "673 67 !"#$ % >

(113) W ,1'E Xz5 Y5

(114) P w % &

(115) '( [VbD , m

(116) 'T

(117) - 5/ ,&

(118) '(D ,1

(119) 2345 ENO P 1b3 Y

(120) "

(121) bC ;0E$ % "b0e3 0Xs35 "D063 &

(122) '( 1- ;< 1

(123) 2345 "P ,g"2p3 = `- m# UA 8

(124) FV E#C U3Dzt &P _"Cp3 ,01

(125) 2345 CD3 @

(126) 2 = ¡e

(127) - X' ,CD3 ^ 7 Y

(128) zD36W O CD3 ¡¢- = £EC =

(129) N¥ 9z" 1W g"2y =

(130) 4

(131) - ,@¤ r'

(132) P ^ 8&Es 0e &1

(133) / ,w

(134) 3 ,Xs35

(135) 15 dA35 :

(136) 3 =

(137)

(138) :"

(139) za ? 01

(140) 2345 "673 !"#$ % &

(141) '( )

(142) * + ,- ./ U( UCF 81 ,, V V# 81 888801

(143) 2345 "673 % &

(144) '( >

(145) ?

(146) "4.

(147) 315. 2018

(148) 02

(149) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. : "A7 −1995 &BCD EF4 1 % 01

(150) 2345 "673 !"#$ % &

(151) '( >

(152) ?

(153) "4 @A3 YSTW )- Z $ % [3>

(154) 0$ ENO ?

(155) "4 P 0$

(156) 731 ('B ,2014 R U3 VR'EW "X35 01

(157) 2345 % 0(R'E ,01

(158) 2345 "673 Y

(159) 03 = ST* YST6 !Db X" \c

(160) b dA35 ST \W ]

(161) 7 1EC ^"2 ST = ?

(162) "# UX35 ,1

(163) 2345 e

(164) Af gc

(165) 2

(166) A#6 % _` R U3 ,1

(167) 2345

(168) A#a % "673 HDI 0iV "673 ST = &

(169) '( EN- 0$ ./ ?

(170) "# hEF37 X' 8DVD 1990 m

(171) 7 UcX &3W )O ]

(172) E 63bW Human Development Index YST no mp3

(173) ^ no q"#0 ,01

(174) 2345 "673D

(175) V'E

(176)

(177) "# rs60* ,. ;< 8!c5 t"b +3 ST EbW u

(178) 3' ,"` &0 &

(179) "P :"E U3 FVEW Y

(180) V35 1b3W 5 w<X v ,1

(181) 2345 ?

(182) "# ,Uc

(183) 2P r"D3 8D m

(184) b

(185) x my. :1íé×ÓÖ]ì^ÒˆÖ]íÖ]‚Öíè^’jÎ÷]íq„ÛßÖ]I÷æ_ = , S &E W O = , Y 0

(186) f = £E C &

(187) '( 9- £B = 8 R &

(188) '( 6"4 ^ 9- z60 ,º3 = Zk , Zs , Zy : V 7 K O ? VDRYEíè…^¢]Ùç}‚Ö]ì^Ò‡J1 1

(189) 2345 rz" 6 01

(190) 2345 Y

(191)

(192) F#

(193) A##$* U3

(194) W )"# ,

(195) f &

(196) 'e ]37 TVA

(197) W 6"# = V0 » 6"4

(198) / b U7x ]

(199) 7

(200) A6 % rz t* U 3 ,U7x . 6"4 ^ U7x ]

(201) 7 ,Y º

(202) U7x ]

(203) 7D ( E ,DD "'E6f m E h #P Y = Y 1 + Y2 : rzt ^3z0* &

(204) '( u

(205) 2. 8 Y1 = ð Y : u

(206) 27 r4- w

(207) 3 Y 2 = h Y : u

(208) 27 v'- 2w

(209) 3 Y2=hY. Y1 = Y – Y2 = Y – h Y =Y x 1 − h 0< ð <1. ð = 1− h . 0<h<1. @ @@@@@@@@NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN@@@@‹öa§a@@ð†aìÛa@òÈßbu https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/PresentationRevue/202.

(210) 2018

(211) 02

(212) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. Ry = Zy h Y. 316. :

(213) ' 0

(214) f &

(215) 'e 6"4 u

(216) P z60 [7. 8D2W &

(217) '( 6"4 Y1e XD' 1 uB4 h bW C XD' ["D VRSì†}‚¹]Ù]çÚù]ì^Ò‡J2 8rzt ^3z &

(218) '( !"VF rV4

(219) 15 1

(220) 70 S = − a + 1 –b Y. 0 <s < 1. &

(221) Vb

(222)

(223) 15 6"4

(224) 3' z60 [: u

(225) 27 6"4 r4- &EW O ( 9- £B = " S = S1 + S2 :" S2 = 1−j S S1 = j S. 8u

(226) 27 r4-

(227) 15 :S2. ;u

(228) 27 6"4 ,

(229) 0 - v'-

(230) 15 :S1.

(231) 15 &

(232) 'e 6"4 ^ 9- z60 Z V 7 S &EW O = £EC &

(233) '( 9- £B = :\0 X' , Rs S1 = j S. 0< j <1 Rs = Zs S1 = Zs j (- a + (1 –b) Y). 8&EW O = &

(234) '( 6"4 Y1e XD' PD j b uB4 XD' ["D :3RKÙ^¹]Œ_…ì^Ò‡J3 E (f 9- R 5/ ,

(235) 15 0

(236) f ¥ &

(237) '( Y1E0/ v'O (f 9- a¥3 Å 8888 Y

(238) (pW "" &Es'

(239) ?- ¥0 Rk = zk Kn :

(240) '

(241) ?- Æ

(242) 7 &

(243) '( 6"4 Ç

(244) "` z60 ["D. :rs60 "P u

(245) 27 ÉD ,

(246) ?- Kn O ? &

(247) 'e V Zk O ? &

(248) 'e 6"4 : Rk V^’jÎ÷]»íé×ÓÖ]ì^ÒˆÖ]íÛéÎJ4 : rzt = ^3z &

(249) '( 6"4 R = Rs + Ry + Rk = Zy h Y + Zs j (- a + (1 –b) Y) + Zk Kn. : rzt &

(250) '( 6"4

(251) 3' z6" Zk ,Zy ,Zs rz ÊEW Z

(252) V3

(253) R = Z h Y + Z j (- a + (1 –b) Y) + Z Kn R = Z Y [h + j (1 –b)] – Zja + Z Kn U( UCF 81 ,, V V# 81 888801

(254) 2345 "673 % &

(255) '( >

(256) ?

(257) "4.

(258) 317. 2018

(259) 02

(260) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. :1

(261) 2345 % "Dz &

(262) '( 1

(263) b R = – Zja + Z Kn + Z [h + j (1 –b)] Y. Víè^’jÎ÷]íéÛßjÖ]l]†>öÚJ^éÞ^m ,r - &0 ^"

(264) - Ë

(265) V73 !0Ex 63W m# 01

(266) 2345 "673

(267) 2#0 ,"

(268) " ,01

(269) 2345 1

(270) bÌ¥ 63W % n$ U3 Y

(271) AW X/ w

(272) 3 Y

(273) 03 :Î["Í +E0 8463W 1E - "6f 60Ez &

(274) " r- ,"6"73 ,0EzC ,"X35 "673 9- ZP % ,o1

(275) % )3 ,Uc

(276) #D ,1

(277) 234 "D6 + q" ,1

(278) 2345 67 985D "X35 YX"73 % Y" E/ ,- ,

(279) " 5

(280) b E0F £BC 01

(281) 2345 : rzt %

(282) A7"V @O (P 01

(283) 2345 "673D 1 rzt 01

(284) 2345 "673 @-. "673 !"#$ %

(285) 1 "W

(286) b 6"# r % '

(287) tW ,9E 1

(288) b ,,0 "6 :2W 829 Ï ,2016 ,,1 b

(289) ,B

(290) &E' ,01

(291) 2345. %

(292) AD6* 9- z6" 01

(293) 2345 "673 !#$ Y

(294) 01

(295) q"# U3 YSTW

(296) !Db X"

(297) : rzt. @ @@@@@@@@NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN@@@@‹öa§a@@ð†aìÛa@òÈßbu https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/PresentationRevue/202.

(298) 2018

(299) 02

(300) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. 318. 2 rzt 01

(301) 2345 "673 YST. 838 Ï ,E'< !V E ,9E 1

(302) b ,,0 "6 :2W. º

(303) / :\0

(304) %

(305) AD6* YSTW 6 "673 ?

(306) "# 01

(307) 2345 YSTW ) ]

(308) 7 ./ Xs35 V ,U7x - \W ]

(309) 7 1EC ^"2 ' ,U7x - \W ]

(310) 7 '

(311) t ,)p3 +3 ,º

(312) \W ]

(313) 7 ./ U

(314) Ð m

(315) b 0 V ,º

(316) \W ,º

(317) \W ]

(318) 7 % UP

(319) " ¡

(320) F# '

(321) t ,º

(322) \W ]

(323) 7 % U

(324) 72 ¡

(325) F# YSTW

(326) - 8

(327) FV +3 ,E#C +3 ,º

(328) \W ]

(329) 7 ./ ,

(330) 3 9("W % Ñc

(331) C 0

(332) bW ,"

(333) z 0

(334) bW ,03 0

(335) b ,"6"Db3 0

(336) bW ,"2 0

(337) bW :)3 "X35 ]

(338) E 63 ST ,60iV "673D Ò

(339) "# )4E

(340) A>¥ V'EW YSTW

(341) - 8"7O ,"E YST no mp3

(342) ^ no q"#0 ,1990 m

(343) 7 UcX &3W )O 0iV "673 r"1 u

(344) P "C"' 0iV "673 E0E# 6 "P ,2010 7 [D0b ) R 4. :7 \0 X' ns 1

(345) bÌ¥ Human Development IndexHDI 20

(346) " 6"# # ,&15 7 43W E6b 36 ?

(347) # :"` &0 &

(348) "P *. 87 83,2 +2# ,7 ' 0,951 1- ' 0 Z [36"4 ÓB ^'EW )"Db3 r" ?

(349) #0 : EbW u

(350) 3' * ,7 13,2 Z

(351) ÊB0 Y7 3 :

(352) > Z"E 0ST _Ô¥30 ,Õ487 20,6 0 Z

(353) ÓB0 43W Y7 3. U( UCF 81 ,, V V# 81 888801

(354) 2345 "673 % &

(355) '( >

(356) ?

(357) "4.

(358) 319. 2018

(359) 02

(360) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. T

(361) z ?

(362) "#6 [7 vb 1ECD º

(363) \W ]

(364) 7 mp3

(365) ?

(366) #0 :!c5 t"b +3 * 108211 163 Z

(367) ÓB 6"4 ¥0 PPA Uz0EO 5

(368) "ci &#. :

(369) ' 0iV "673 r"1 ^ × HDI =. I1 + I2 + I3 3 :8Y

(370) 6 - ./ [

(371) - = _72. 51 "

(372) s 6W ) ZP % , bCE 0i "67 Y< 1 U .O W ,F3W 0iV "67 Y< 63 s

(373) s 6W

(374) - ,bCE 0i "67 Y< 8Cp7W "673 Y<

(375) A76 _72* &O 6W Ví‰]…‚Ö]íérãßÚæl]BÇjÚJ^nÖ^m Ví‰]…‚Ö]l]BÇjÚJ1 R YSTW EN- ?

(376) "4 01

(377) 2345 "673 = &

(378) '( EN- = ('E R "Dz Y

(379) ¤W ,EFC &

(380) 'e ,&

(381) '( :% Ds63W &

(382) '( r#3 W 36D DztW &1W YSTW = SDAKAtÛ FETERtÛ ZAKATt EXPENt Y

(383) 42 ,&

(384) '( h72 8HDIt 0iV "673 ST "673D ^'EW STW HCEtÛ GDPpct "673D 01

(385) 2345 º ;7V Y

(386)

(387) " &

(388) 4 Y

(389) "c

(390) 2P/ = 1X35 ) 4 ,"#"#

(391) A6"4 % Y3W Y

(392)

(393) " 1X35 ) ZP % ,01

(394) 2345 "673 YST6 !Db X" UcX &3W )O ]

(395) E E0

(396) # X' &

(397) '(

(398) #Db3W D#3 W Y3W

(399) !Db X" ,EF# &

(400) '( h72 07 E0

(401) #3 =. 8ºW f % ZV Y

(402)

(403) "V 1

(404) 2 Y3 :1 f 2W http://data.albankal dawli.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.PCAP.CD http://data.albankal dawli.org/indicator/ NE.CON.PETC.ZS. _0Eb3. STW. º

(405) / 6 4 r`

(406) P \W ]

(407) 7 º

(408) / 1EC ^"2. º

(409) / 1EC ^"2. 8m

(410) b _237 % 9

(411) z 1 = \W ]

(412) 7. \W ]

(413) 7 GDPpct. dA35 "t"bW àá Uc

(414) A7 dA35 Y

(415) #C. dA35 "c

(416) A7 Y

(417) #C7. @ @@@@@@@@NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN@@@@‹öa§a@@ð†aìÛa@òÈßbu https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/PresentationRevue/202.

(418) 2018

(419) 02

(420) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. D

(421) a ,Y

(422) Ð D

(423) z "4 6"# U Ï

(424) Ð. % 8"t"bW àO. &(A- ,Y5

(425) ,Y

(426) "

(427) ' &E6bW Y

(428) 37W. \W ]

(429) 7 º

(430) /. 8"t"bW àO

(431) ãBt U3 ,"(7W E"V6z http://hdr.undp.org/s ites/default/files/hdr _2015_statistical_an nex.pdf http://hdr.undp.org/ en/composite/trends http://www.zf.org.qa /. 320. HCEt. YST no mp3

(432) ^ no q"#0 ST +3 Í Î EbW u

(433) 3' Í Î "` &0 &

(434) "P Í :"E. 0iV "673 ST. 6"4 äB4 XD' ,1−0 Z STW ÓB0 8 Î !c5 t"b. HDIt. 8

(435) "

(436) +3 = ;< v P ./ STW

(437) Ab0e &

(438) '( 0

(439) V `

(440) Ð _"

(441) z3 63 ,EF#

(442) 0 &P 8

(443) AC0

(444) 2. "D' Y

(445) ¤ EXPENt. V#W O &

(446) 'e

(447) 1

(448) 2 "P 63 c ' ,Y

(449) v3 !01

(450) 7` ,Y

(451) TW 1E O Y

(452) ./ @

(453) 2W "P ) #7 ZP % 8 3 http://www.zf.org.qa /. ,F# Y

(454) ,0"b & ' ,^

(455) x

(456) C' 6c1. &

(457) '(. w Y

(458) ,Êc

(459) < ,"7" "70å 1 Y

(460) . ZAKATt. ,+E- r"V Z

(461) Ç CCb3 à- ,"X3 9Ta D ,_"2

(462) 3t & ' , 0" EC E' Y

(463) ,EF#

(464) 0 _Ô- &P 89

(465) 0å Ð http://www.zf.org.qa /. E#C = "70å 0Ç- q % "7" 0# ¡e. EFC &

(466) 'e. ,EF#

(467) 0 _Ô- &P 8Z

(468) 3W. FETERt. 1E O V#W Y

(469) 42

(470) 1

(471) 2 "P 63 ,V 1 Y

(472) V# ,Y

(473) v3 !01

(474) 7` ,Y

(475) TW

(476) æ ECP Y

(477) V# ,r"V

(478) _P

(479) 2

(480) W )1 ) #7

(481) A4

(482) C/ "P 8 3 c ' ,"b & ' http://www.zf.org.qa /. _4 Y

(483) ¤ ,V# Y

(484) ,6c1 Y

(485) 4` ./ & ' Y

(486) ¤ ,"7" "70å 1 Y

(487) ,9æE# =. Y

(488) 4` SDAKAt. ,EC E' Y

(489) ,r"V

(490) Y

(491) ¤ ,"b.

(492) 0 _Ô- &P 8+E- 6D 1 Ê

(493) 2 Y

(494) ¤ ,EF#. ZsP

(495) V 1/ :2W U( UCF 81 ,, V V# 81 888801

(496) 2345 "673 % &

(497) '( >

(498) ?

(499) "4.

(500) 321. 2018

(501) 02

(502) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. Ví‰]…‚Ö]íérãßÚJ2 "7( Y

(503) x

(504) V36D 5 w<X mp3

(505) Ò

(506) "# \"D3 uD- mp3 . YST Z 4b E0#3 Ï

(507) Ð Ò

(508) "# w<67 _` ;< ,ARDL eW w<X oo v ;< b

(509) Y36' YST D#3 Y36' ns 01

(510) 2345 "673 8Stationary Test Y

(511)

(512) "V E#3 g b w<X7 E0# )o ,"

(513) "4 Víè^’jÎ÷]tƒ^ÛßÖ]J3. ;< 01

(514) 2345 "673 YST = D#3 W Y3 N¥ 1 E0# )3" :"

(515) 3 Y51

(516) bW E0#. 8Uctb ¥FÐ. ;

(517) E0# ^3 0 YXDb. :"P. Vsñ^jßÖ]BŠËiæØé× V^Ãe]… VíéßÚˆÖ]Ø‰øŠÖ]…]†Ïj‰]…^fj}] J1 r"D3 % " "cE r'

(518) tW Nonstationary Y

(519)

(520) "V E#3 m Dzt v3b Mean 9- ./ ;< 1b0 DztW 01

(521) 2345 Y

(522)

(523) "V )b é

(524) b , Ò

(525) "# +E2 Y

(526) bEW #0Ex mp3 9: ; ,( v 930 Variance 0

(527) V3 F−statistic t−statistic )"4 = 2 z60 "P ,&("3 ]c

(528) 3 ./ 1#" 01

(529) "35 ./ ,1T "c

(530) 2P 51 Y< C UFb 5

(531) A7z "

(532) "c

(533) 2P/ 51 Y< R2 Chermaza and DeadmanÛ 1992 Spurious Regression DD Y

(534)

(535) 373. 8Nelson and PlosserÛ 1982 Augmented W E −Uz01

(536) V3 !VF Y

(537)

(538) "V E#3 '¥3D.

(539) #W

(540) H0: ρ=1 "b "EC = E Uz01

(541) V3 63b0 8 Dickey Fuller−ADF 6"# W T "c

(542) 2P 6"#

(543) #6 ;< H1: ρ<1 D0V "EC T 6"4 v'- W T 6"4 ä

(544) ' <: ,MacKinnon 1996 Ep3 W &E#3 "7( D D 9z "b "EC Ñ "F3 5

(545) 7: E </

(546) - 8OLS 01

(547) "35 +E2 Y

(548) bEW #0Ex mp3

(549) ì "F3 , I0 0EC2

(550) % "b "EC Ñ E

(551) 7: E T 6"4 r4- W T 6"4 ä

(552) ' @ @@@@@@@@NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN@@@@‹öa§a@@ð†aìÛa@òÈßbu https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/PresentationRevue/202.

(553) 2018

(554) 02

(555) 15 . 322. ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. ./

(556) 7 D D r2 U3 03 8&E#3 Ç "7( D D 9z D

(557) z3 Y

(558)

(559) "V 9- U7b0 A YE#3 <: O hEC - b

(560) V35 "b

(561) 7: ,E#35 8Y

(562) V35 d 1 3P z I1 .O w<67 % p3 W Y

(563)

(564) "VD ADF

(565) V3 ]c

(566) 3 :2 )4 E#35 1. E 6"# %5. W 6"#. 3W. I(1) I(1) I(1) I(1) I(1) I(1) I(0). 1.9823441.9823441.9881981.9881981.9958651.9823441.977738-. 3.5707456.4033003.8013642.930760 2.1866722.3679133.074959. GDPPC HCE HDI EXPEN FETER SADAK ZAKAT. EVIEWS 9 Uc

(567) 2P ]

(568) v Y

(569) E = 1X3 ZsP

(570) V 1/ :2W. &E#3 z ï Y3W " 9- ZV0 , - f % ZVW 7 = ]c

(571) 37 ä

(572) ' 8%5 51 +3 7 , O hEC 7 &E#3 ä

(573) ' r +3 W 7 VARDLíérãßÚÝ]‚~j‰^e†è‚ÏjÖ]hç×‰_ J2 w<X

(574) A" ]1 ,dBtW r

(575) z3D ARDL "A7 Pesaran et al8 2001 Distributed eW

(576) F YB w<X Autoregressive Models 5. Y3W )"4 ,

(577) A6"4

(578) F/ % 1 "7( D D 9z "A7W % ,Lag Models 8Es'- - &P &BC

(579) Ac

(580) F/ "

(581) 0 C3 "F3 </ ,Autoregressive Distributed Lag −ARDL "A7 mp3 Z0W % D#3 W Y3W

(582) 3 36D "D

(583) z3 4b 0$ ARDL "A7 Y3W r' N¥ )P 0$ ./

(584)

(585) ,Short run and Long run r0F 2# 6Æ 9- "

(586) z: ARDL "A7 e

(587) 3å "P ,PeseranÛ 2001

(588) 3 3W = D#3 W &E#3

(589) b" 9z 9- ËBt0 5 ,I1 I0 rs E#35 +3 Es'- Y< Y3 +W 2# +W r' % w<67 E0# = r6b ARDL "A7 9/ 8I0 +3 W 7 9

(590) º

(591) 3

(592) Autocorrelation Ë

(593) V5

(594) #Db3W r'

(595) tW e/ = r6b X' ,r0F 8&("3 Ç &TC' ]c

(596) 3 b ARDL w<6 E0# r2$ U3 ]c

(597) 37. U( UCF 81 ,, V V# 81 888801

(598) 2345 "673 % &

(599) '( >

(600) ?

(601) "4.

(602) 2018

(603) 02

(604) 15 . 323. ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. VDGDPpcEÄe^jÖ]BÇj¹]VÙæù]tƒçÛßÖ]182 ñ- 1 m w<67 ` + _tzD 0» "

(605) "# Y

(606) V35 ]c

(607) 3 YEAð9- 2 )4 f ZV30 8Y

(608) V35 ]c

(609) 3 % ("$ - 41 =

(610) VD EoT 4 "

(611) "4 r'

(612) t < Ë

(613) V 1 = 1- ñ- EA )D 8Ó

(614) 7 [3` !#3 Y

(615) V3 " e

(616) 3 w<67 RESET

(617) V3 EA0 ï X' ,Correlation Residual Serial "ctb

(618) Fá

(619)

(620) ,Misspecification w<67 "Dz" % rD 1 = 1- ñ- RamsyÛ 1969 q

(621) Æ & rzt Að m Uctb ¥FpD Ub"VF 0e3

(622) !Db3 r'

(623) t Að m ./ 8Heteroscedasticity Y

(624) 70

(625) V3 GDPpc

(626) 3 3W ARDL "A7 mp3

(627) w<67 E0# ]c

(628) 3 :3 )4 ARDL (1,2,1,2,2) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion Variable. coefficient. GDPPC(-1) EXPEN EXPEN(-1) EXPEN(-2) ZAKAT ZAKAT(-1) SADAK SADAK(-1) SADAK(-2) FETER FETER(-1) FETER(-2) INPT R-squared D.W F-stat.. 1.4404 -0.87962 1.0378 -1.8026 -0.12014 0.41050 15.2135 -12.5497 21.1865 -18.1343 16.2586 -33.2836 442.4708 0.99290 1.8759 58.2454[.000] Diagnostic Tests:. Std. Error. t-ratio. Probability. 0.3976 0.34825 0.29918 0.55220 0.32208 0.25537 5.6246 3.4492 6.7473 13.6799 10.5166 20.3822 5548.2. 3.6227 -2.5258 3.4689 -3.2644 -0.37301 1.6074 2.7048 -3.6385 3.1400 -1.3256 1.5460 -1.6330 0.079750. [0.015] [0.053] [0.018] [0.022] [0.724] [0.169] [0.043] [0.015] [0.026] [0.242] [0.183] [0.163] [0.940]. Probability. Serial Correlation. < Ë

(629) V 0 5. 0.025601. [0.881]. RESET. é

(630) b0 5 w<67. 1.6634. [0.267]. Normality. Ub"Vx 0e ¡e3 U4V. 0.26676. [0.875]. Heteroscedasticity. 0

(631) V3 Y

(632) Vo. 0.47878. [0.499]. MICROFIT 481 Uc

(633) 2P5 ]

(634) v Y

(635) E = 1X3 ZsP

(636) V 1/ :2W. @ @@@@@@@@NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN@@@@‹öa§a@@ð†aìÛa@òÈßbu https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/PresentationRevue/202.

(637) 2018

(638) 02

(639) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. 324. GDPpc

(640) 3 3W ARDL "A7 mp3

(641) &#W rO D0x Y

(642) bW :4 ARDL (1,2,1,2,2) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion Variable coefficient Std. Error t-ratio Probability EXPEN 3.7338 1.9832 1.8827 [0.118] ZAKAT -0.65933 1.0587 -0.62277 [0.561] SADAK -54.1566 32.3877 -1.6721 [0.155] FETER 79.8360 24.9268 3.2028 [0.024] INPT -1004.7 12317.8 -.081566 [0.938] MICROFIT 481 Uc

(643) 2P5 ]

(644) v Y

(645) E = 1X3 ZsP

(646) V 1/ :2W. &

(647) '( ^ ,7b N¥ 1 ./ 4 )4 f % &1 r0F rO % ]c

(648) 37 t 8,7b N¥

(649) z0 ï Y3W U4

(650) X7" \W ]

(651) 7 1EC ^"2 = FETER EFC ,1T0* ,DV 9

(652) z r' = £EC* r ,u

(653) 27

(654) VE 5 &ba EFC &

(655) 'e 9- a¥3 Å E#C

(656) A#3 0 W )7 rzt

(657) Ab0e &

(658) '( h72 #*W EFC &

(659) 'e D"2P U

(660) 7

(661) bC \z ^DF 11(0 ;

(662) x

(663) V C U'A35 ^DF &1

(664) 0e ./ Z'

(665) W "

(666) 3 &

(667) # %

(668) b w

(669) 3 rb %

(670) / w( \z £Eb &1

(671) 0e ./ 0

(672) #DP ; e(b , 1

(673) 2345 % \z ^DF

(674) " ,#0

(675) Xs35 &1

(676) 0e ; D26' r U7x ]

(677) 7 &1

(678) 0e r0F +W % XO ¡

(679) F4 \c

(680) b ¡

(681) F# Z ,Ec ! 3 8]

(682) 7 1EC ^"2 U7x GDPpc

(683) 3 3W ARDL ]A7 ! ¥FÐ Ê"2 w<6 E0# ]c

(684) 3 :5 ARDL (1,2,1,2,2) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio Probability dEXPEN -0.87962 0.34825 -2.5258 [0.032] dEXPEN1 1.8026 0.55220 3.2644 [0.010] dZAKAT -0.12014 0.32208 -0.37301 [0.718] dSADAK 15.2135 5.6246 2.7048 [0.024] dSADAK1 -21.1865 6.7473 -3.1400 [0.012] dFETER -18.1343 13.6799 -1.3256 [0.218] dFETER1 33.2836 20.3822 1.6330 [0.137] dINPT 442.4708 5548.2 0.079750 [0.938] ecm(-1) 0.44039 0.39760 1.1076 [0.297] R-squared 0.92145 U( UCF 81 ,, V V# 81 888801

(685) 2345 "673 % &

(686) '( >

(687) ?

(688) "4.

(689) 2018

(690) 02

(691) 15 . 325. ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. D.W F-stat.. 1.8759 7.3314 [0.011.]. MICROFIT 481 Uc

(692) 2P5 ]

(693) v Y

(694) E = 1X3 ZsP

(695) V 1/ :2W. ,dEXPEN1 ,dEXPEN D#3 W Y36D ,7b N¥ 0 2# rO % 8]

(696) 7 1EC ^"2 = dSADAK1 ,dSADAK "

(697) &BC % ]

(698) 7 1EC ^"2 =

(699) V

(700) dEXPEN &

(701) '( Y

(702) ¤ EoT

(703) Ab0e &

(704) '( 0

(705) V `

(706) Ð _"

(707) z3 63 &

(708) '( Y

(709) ¤ 9-

(710) V35 ^

(711) f `

(712) CD3pW @

(713) 2W = 0e3D g2pW

(714) F3#* _0

(715) 2W 8

(716) AC0

(717) 2 %

(718) h

(719) C ( uó ,- – h

(720) C

(721) " ( uó U7b0 , EO E#C ENO 9- 5/ 8]

(722) 7 \z ^DF dA35

(723) " ,#0 9- £BC0* 9

(724) ' − E#C #VF

(725) A7 (

(726) z

(727) !C7"* Y

(728) ¤W 9-

(729) V3 = #P YBC % ô

(730) Å/ N¥ < ÊV20* ]

(731) 7 &1

(732) 0e \z h

(733) C

(734) " 0# = EN- [ 9z"

(735) CD3pW Y

(736)

(737) "3P5 "VD % 8Y

(738) 42D V 7

(739) r"D3 qC 8]

(740) 7 1EC ^"2 ./ &1b = w<67 &4 q"# U3 ,ECM−1 "3 9- ARDL

(741) V3 t0 Z O D0x 4 1 m = ,,1

(742) 234 uEF - rD ,- 2P b 9e3 m äVs0

(743) õ ,%5 07b 1 7 &'T Ç V ECM−1 &

(744) a/ 9- "P ,Y3W D Y3W Z O D0x 4 ;

(745) 7 0 5 ,"P

(746) ,w<67 % E#3 1 8+E- "P

(747) w<67 % DHCEEÄe^jÖ]BÇj¹]VêÞ^nÖ]tƒçÛßÖ]282 ñ- 1 m w<67 ` + _tzD 0» "

(748) "# Y

(749) V35 ]c

(750) 3 YEAð9- 6 )4 f ZV30 8Y

(751) V35 ]c

(752) 3 % ("$ - 41 =

(753) VD EoT 4 "

(754) "4 r'

(755) t < Ë

(756) V 1 = 1- ñ- EA )D 8Ó

(757) 7 [3` !#3 Y

(758) V3 " e

(759) 3 w<67 RESET

(760) V3 EA0 ï X' ,Correlation Residual Serial "ctb

(761) Fá

(762)

(763) ,Misspecification w<67 "Dz" % rD 1 = 1- ñ- RamsyÛ 1969 q

(764) Æ & Dzt Að m Uctb ¥FpD Ub"VF 0e3

(765) !Db3 r'

(766) t Að m ./ 8Heteroscedasticity Y

(767) 70

(768) V3. @ @@@@@@@@NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN@@@@‹öa§a@@ð†aìÛa@òÈßbu https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/PresentationRevue/202.

(769) 2018

(770) 02

(771) 15 . 326. ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. HCE

(772) 3 3W ARDL "A7 mp3

(773) w<67 E0# ]c

(774) 3 :6 ARDL (1,0,0,0,1) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion Variable HCE(-1) EXPEN ZAKAT SADAK FETER FETER(-1) INPT R-squared D.W F-stat.. Coefficient Std. Error 0.44585 0.23639 -0.9597E-4 0.1058E-3 0.7576E-4 0.1069E-3 0.2879E-3 0.8871E-3 -0.0059456 0.0038450 0.0061652 0.0033415 10.2916 6.9608 0.69577 2.3495 4.1928[0.019] Diagnostic Tests: Serial Correlation < Ë

(775) V 0 5 RESET _"`3 é

(776) b0 5 w<67 Normality Ub"Vx 0e ¡e3 U4V Heteroscedasticity 0

(777) V3 Y

(778) Vo. t-ratio 1.8861 -0.90685 0.70877 0.32457 -1.5463 1.8450 1.4785. Probability [0.086] [0.384] [0.493] [0.752] [0.150] [0.092] [0.167]. 0.98209 0.62893 1.7698 2.9639. Probability [0.345] [0.446] [0.413] [0.104]. MICROFIT 481 Uc

(779) 2P ]

(780) v Y

(781) E = 1X3 ZsP

(782) V 1/ :2W. HCE

(783) 3 3W ARDL "A7 mp3

(784) &#W rO D0x Y

(785) bW :7 ARDL (1,0,0,0,1) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion Variable EXPEN ZAKAT SADAK FETER INPT. Coefficient -0.1732E-3 0.1367E-3 0.5196E-3 0.3963E-3 18.5721. Std. Error 0.1674E-3 0.1791E-3 0.0015714 0.0084155 5.4778. t-ratio -1.0348 0.76322 0.33064 0.047089 3.3904. Probability [0.323] [0.461] [0.747] [0.963] [0.006]. MICROFIT 481 Uc

(786) 2P5 ]

(787) v Y

(788) E = 1X3 ZsP

(789) V 1/ :2W. rz ,7b N¥ 1 m ./ 7 )4 f % &1 r0F rO % ]c

(790) 37 t 8

(791) 3 3W = D#3 W Y3W. U( UCF 81 ,, V V# 81 888801

(792) 2345 "673 % &

(793) '( >

(794) ?

(795) "4.

(796) 327. 2018

(797) 02

(798) 15 ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. HCE

(799) 3 3W ARDL ]A7 ! ¥FÐ Ê"2 w<6 E0# ]c

(800) 3 8 ARDL (1,0,0,0,1) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio Probability dEXPEN -0.9597E-4 0.1058E-3 -0.90685 [0.382] Dzakat 0.7576E-4 0.1069E-3 0.70877 [0.492] Dsadak 0.2879E-3 0.8871E-3 0.32457 [0.751] dFETER -0.0059456 0.0038450 -1.5463 [0.148] dINPT 10.2916 1.4785 [0.165] 6.9608 ecm(-1) -0.55415 0.23639 -2.3442 [0.037] R-squared 0.59643 D.W 2.3495 F-stat. 3.2514[0.044] MICROFIT 481 Uc

(801) 2P ]

(802) v Y

(803) E = 1X3 ZsP

(804) V 1/ :2W.

(805) V3 t0 8

(806) 3 3W = D#3 W Y3W rz ,7b N¥ 0 5 2# rO % ,- 2P b 9e3 ./ &1b = w<67 &4 q"# U3 ,ECM−1 "3 9- ARDL &

(807) a/ 9- "P ,Y3W Z O D0x 4 ;

(808) 7 9- = ,,1

(809) 234 uEF - rD % E#3 äVs0

(810) õ 8%5 +3 7 07b Ê"` P r4-

(811) A36"4 V

(812) ECM−1 "P

(813) w<67 % D Y3W Z O D0x 4 ;

(814) 7 9- ,"P

(815) ,w<67 = Y

(816) 42 EFC &

(817) 'e &

(818) '( Y

(819) ¤ W &

(820) '(D N¥ d

(821) 7 9- ,- ,+E% 9e3 ./ `D _"z3 à 9- ¥FÐ Ê"2 r

(822) b t0 ,\c

(823) b ¡

(824) F#D dA35 8%55 ,

(825) r0F rO :HDI

(826) 3 3W

(827) s w<67 283 1 é

(828) b0 w<67 9- 9 )4 f % 0» "

(829) "# Y

(830) V35 ]c

(831) 3 YEAðRamsyÛ RESET

(832) V3 EA0 X' ,Heteroscedasticity Y

(833) 70

(834) V3 q

(835) Æ m Dzt. ,Misspecification _"`3 é

(836) b0 w<67 ,- w<67 "Dz" % rD 1 1969 Residual Serial "ctb

(837) Fá < Ë

(838) V 1 = 1- ñ- EA ï ;< )Ç. 8Uctb ¥FpD Ub"VF 0e3

(839) !Db3 r'

(840) t Að m ./

(841)

(842) ,Correlation. @ @@@@@@@@NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN@@@@‹öa§a@@ð†aìÛa@òÈßbu https://www.asjp.cerist.dz/en/PresentationRevue/202.

(843) 2018

(844) 02

(845) 15 . 328. ISSN: 1112-4938, EISSN: 2600-6456. HDI

(846) 3 3W ARDL "A7 mp3

(847) w<67 E0# ]c