Convective memory, and the role of cold pools

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HAL Id: tel-02864797

https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02864797

Submitted on 11 Jun 2020

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Maxime Colin

To cite this version:

Maxime Colin. Convective memory, and the role of cold pools. Meteorology. Sorbonne Université, 2018. English. �NNT : 2018SORUS312�. �tel-02864797�

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and the role of cold pools

Maxime Colin

こふばづひぶどびはひ〺ぐひはてづびびはひこぴづぶづのことづひぷははつぃは〭びふばづひぶどびはひび〺いひこちのつひどのづあはのべ〬ぐひはてづびびはひおちびはのぅぶちのびぁつどびびづひぴちぴどはのびふぢねどぴぴづつどのてふぬ〜ぬねづのぴはてぴとづひづぱふどひづねづのぴびてはひぴとづつづでひづづはて Doctor of Philosophy

Climate Change Research Centre

and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences

Faculty of Science

The University of New South Wales

どのちっはぴふぴづぬぬづちでひづづねづのぴぷどぴと

Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique - IPSL

Ecole Doctorale des Sciences de l’Environnement d’Ile-de-France Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Sorbonne Université

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Surname or Family name: COLIN

First name: MAXIME Other name/s: JULIEN Abbreviation for degree as given in the University calendar:

Doctor or Philosophy (PhD)

School: School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences Faculty: Faculty of Science Title: Convective memory, and the role of cold pools

Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASE TYPE)

Convective parameterizations struggle to represent the spatial and temporal variability of convection. This may be because they wrongly assume that convection can be diagnosed from the large-scale state, without knowing the convective history. The concept of convective memory, which states that convection depends on its own history, could be used to overcome this issue. This thesis proposes a new framework for convective memory, with a distinction between microstate (unresolved) memory and macrostate (large-scale) memory.

The thesis uses a hierarchy of models either in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium or under fixed-macrostate conditions, and analyses the recovery to homogenisation perturbations. It exploits three types of models: a Cloud-Resolving Model, a General Circulation Model (GCM) in 1D and in 3D, and a simple predator-prey model.

The results show that convective memory plays a role on time scales between an hour and a day. Convective memory in time is dramatically enhanced by convective organisation in space. Microstate memory is found to be mostly stored in boundary layer microstate structures of water vapour and temperature, with a dominant water vapour memory. Furthermore, the convective microstate is shown to be inherently unstable, which confirms that knowledge of the macrostate conditions is not sufficient to predict convection. The standard version of the GCM already shows a

reasonable level of convective persistence. A simple modification of the GCM convection scheme, meant to improve cold pools over oceans, improves some aspects of memory but deteriorates others. With this modification, the GCM cold pools become less cold and thus weaker to trigger convection. This leads to more intermittent precipitation, partly correcting a typical GCM bias.

Overall the thesis fosters the idea of introducing prognostic variables into GCMs and suggests ways to do it. It reveals the potential of microstate memory to improve GCM large-scale properties.

Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation

I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). ……… Signature ………..……… Witness Signature ……….………...…….… Date

The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research.

FOR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award:

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づのっはぴふぴづぬぬづちぶづっこくげあくぎぎぅさぎぉざぅげこぉごド

École doctorale des Sciences de l’Environnement d’Ile-de-France

Climate Change Research Centre and

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique - IPSL

La mémoire de la convection,

et le rôle des poches froides

Convective memory, and the role of cold pools

Maxime COLIN

ごとヨびづつづつはっぴはひちぴづのこっどづのっづびつづぬちきラぴラはひはぬはでどづづぴつふぃぬどねちぴ

いどひどでラづばちひこぴづぶづのことづひぷははつづぴこちのつひどのづあはのべ

ぐひラびづのぴラづづぴびはふぴづのふづぬづ〱〵ぎはぶづねぢひづ〲〰〱〸

いづぶちのぴふのなふひべっはねばはびラつづ〺

Mme. Laurence Picon Professeur, LMD-UPMC Président du Jury

M. Jean-Philippe Lafore Senior Scientist, Météo-France Rapporteur M. Robert Plant Associate Professor, University of Reading Rapporteur

M. Kerry Emanuel Professor, MIT Examinateur

M. Jean-Yves Grandpeix Chercheur émérite CNRS, LMD-UPMC Co-Directeur de thèse

M. Jason Evans Professor, UNSW Co-Directeur de thèse

Mme. Sandrine Bony Directeur de recherche CNRS, LMD-UPMC Directeur de thèse

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ORIGINALITY STATEMENT

‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’

Signed ………...

Date ………...

Maxime Colin 28/08/2018

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UNSW is supportive of candidates publishing their research results during their candidature as detailed in the UNSW Thesis Examination Procedure.

Publications can be used in their thesis in lieu of a Chapter if:

 The student contributed greater than 50% of the content in the publication and is the “primary author”, ie. the student was responsible primarily for the planning, execution and preparation of the work for publication

 The student has approval to include the publication in their thesis in lieu of a Chapter from their supervisor and Postgraduate Coordinator.

 The publication is not subject to any obligations or contractual agreements with a third party that would constrain its inclusion in the thesis

Please indicate whether this thesis contains published material or not.

☐

This thesis contains no publications, either published or submitted for publication (if this box is checked, you may delete all the material on page 2)

X

Some of the work described in this thesis has been published and it has been documented in the relevant Chapters with acknowledgement (if this box is checked, you may delete all the material on page 2)

☐

This thesis has publications (either published or submitted for publication) incorporated into it in lieu of a chapter and the details are presented below

CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION

I declare that:

 I have complied with the Thesis Examination Procedure

 where I have used a publication in lieu of a Chapter, the listed publication(s) below meet(s) the requirements to be included in the thesis.

Name

Maxime Colin

Signature Date (dd/mm/yy)

31/07/2018

Postgraduate Coordinator’s Declaration (to be filled in where publications are used in lieu of Chapters)

I declare that:

 the information below is accurate

 where listed publication(s) have been used in lieu of Chapter(s), their use complies with the Thesis Examination Procedure

 the minimum requirements for the format of the thesis have been met.

PGC’s Name PGC’s Signature Date (dd/mm/yy)

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Figure 2Picture of a diverse population of clouds over the Warm Pool in the tropical Pacific: shallow clouds, congestus clouds, cirrus clouds. A deep convective cloud under wind shear condition can even be seen on the top-right-hand corner. This epitomizes one of the main challenges for a convective parameterization: how to represent such a wide population of clouds, each with their own life cycle? Photo by Maxime Colin.

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L’Étranger, by Charles Baudelaire

どの Petits Poèmes en prose〬

てひはね【Œuvres complètes de Charles Baudelaire〬きどっとづぬがラぶべてひヨひづび〬〱〸〶〹〬ぉざ〮ぐづぴどぴびぐはヨねづびづのばひはびづ〬がづびぐちひちつどびちひぴど〜っどづぬび〨ば〮〷〩〮】〖けふどちどねづび〭ぴふぬづねどづふへ〬とはねねづラのどでねちぴどぱふづ〬つどび〿ぴはのばヨひづ〬ぴちねヨひづ〬ぴちびヷふひはふぴはのてひヨひづ〿〖おづの〧ちどのどばヨひづ〬のどねヨひづ〬のどびヷふひ〬のどてひヨひづ〮〖ごづびちねどび〿〖ざはふびぶはふびびづひぶづぺぬムつ〧ふのづばちひはぬづつはのぴぬづびづのびね〧づびぴひづびぴラなふびぱふ〧ムっづなはふひどのっはののふ〮〖ごちばちぴひどづ〿〖お〧どでのはひづびはふびぱふづぬぬづぬちぴどぴふつづづぬぬづづびぴびどぴふラづ〮〖がちぢづちふぴラ〿〖おづぬ〧ちどねづひちどびぶはぬはのぴどづひび〬つラづびびづづぴどねねはひぴづぬぬづ〮〖が〧はひ〿〖おづぬづとちどびっはねねづぶはふびとちワびびづぺいどづふ〮〖ぅと〡ぱふ〧ちどねづび〭ぴふつはのっ〬づへぴひちはひつどのちどひづラぴひちのでづひ〿〖お〧ちどねづぬづびのふちでづび〮〮〮ぬづびのふちでづびぱふどばちびびづのぴ〮〮〮ぬム〭ぢちび〮〮〮ぬづびねづひぶづどぬぬづふへのふちでづび〡ぶどど

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【ぃぬはふつびっはねづ〝はちぴどのでどのぴはねべぬどてづ〬のはぬはのでづひぴはっちひひべひちどのはひふびとづひびぴはひね〬ぢふぴぴはちつつっはぬはひぴはねべびふのびづぴびにべ〮】げちぢどのつひちのちぴとごちではひづ〬ぉのつどちのばはぬべねちぴとてひはねかはぬにちぴち〬ぬちぴづ〱〹ぴとちのつづちひぬべ〲〰ぴとっづのぴふひどづび〮ざづひびづ〲〹〲〬 Stray Birds〬〱〹〱〶〮【ごひべぴはぢづちひちどのぢはぷどのびはねづはのづ〧びっぬはふつ〮】きちべちぁのでづぬはふ〬ぁねづひどっちのばはづぴ〮【ぃぬはふつびどのぴとづびにべぶづひべねふっとひづびづねぢぬづせびそぴとづぴとはふでとぴびどのはふひねどのつび〡あはぴとっとちのでづせびそばづひばづぴふちぬぬべてひはねはのづびづっはのつぴはちのはぴとづひ〡】きづとねづぴきふひちぴどぬつちの〬ぃはのぴづねばはひちひべごふひにどびとぷひどぴづひ〮【あづとどのつづぶづひべっぬはふつどびちのはぴとづひっぬはふつ〮】おふつべぇちひぬちのつ〬ぁねづひどっちのちっぴひづびびちのつびどのでづひ〬ぷとはばぬちべづつどの The Wizard of Oz.

【ぃぬはふつびちひづはのぴはばてはひちひづちびはの〮ごとづべ〝はちぴびはとどでとぢづっちふびづぴとづべひづてふびづぴはっちひひべちのべぢふひつづの〡】おちびぬづづのかちふひぇふねぢづひ〬すはふのでぉのつどちのばはづぴ〮【ぉばぬちのぴづつねべびづぬてどのぴとづねどつつぬづはてちでひづちぴねちのべぇぬちびびづびてふぬぬはていづぷ〬ぴどづつてちびぴちぢはふぴねづ〬ふばはのぷとどっとぴとづこふのびはぶどはぬづのぴぬべつちひぴづつとどびげちべび〬ぴとちぴぴとづえづちぴ〬ぷとどっとちぴぴひちっぴづつぴとづね〬ちびどぴつはづびぴとづぴとどっにづびぴぃぬはふつび〬っちひひどづつねづふばびはとどでと〬ぴとちぴちぴぬづのでぴとぉてはふのつねべびづぬてちぢはぶづぴとづねどつつぬづげづでどはのはてぴとづぁどひ〮】ぃべひちのはつづあづひでづひちっ〬うひづのっとばぬちべぷひどでとぴてひはねぴとづ〱〷ぴとっづのぴふひべ〬どの A Voyage to the Moon〮

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〱〮樂府

《出塞》王之渙〺【ぇはどのでてちひちぷちべ】〬ぢべしメのでずとどとふムの黃河遠上白雲間，うちひふばぴとづべづぬぬはぷひどぶづひぬどづびどのぢづぴぷづづのぷとどぴづっぬはふつび一片孤城萬仞山。ぁぬはのづぬべっどぴべぷどぴと〱〰〰〰〰ねはふのぴちどのび〮羌_{笛何須怨楊柳？} _{しとべつはべはふとちぶづぴはぢぬちねづぴとづぷどぬぬはぷ〿} 春_{風不渡玉門關。} _{ごとづびばひどのでぢひづづぺづつはづびのはぴぢぬはぷどのおちつづぇちぴづぇはひでづ〮} 《關山月》李白〺明月_{出天山，} 蒼_{茫雲海間。} 長風幾萬里，吹度玉門關。漢下白登道，胡窺青海灣。由來征戰地，不見有人還。戍客望邊色，思歸多苦顏。高樓當此夜，歎息未應閒。《送友人》李白〺青山橫北郭，白水繞東城。此地一為別，孤蓬萬里征。浮_{雲遊子意，} 落日故_人情。揮手自茲去，蕭蕭班馬鳴。

〲〮五言絕句

《終南望餘雪》祖詠〺終南_{陰嶺秀，} 積_{雪浮雲端。} 林表明霽色，城中增暮寒。どへ

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言師採藥去。只在此山中，雲深不知處。

〳〮五言律詩

《終南山》王維〺太乙近天都，連山_到海隅。白雲迴望合，青靄入看無。分野中峰變，陰晴眾壑殊。欲投人處宿，隔水問樵夫。《夜泊牛渚懷古》李白〺牛渚西江夜，青天無片雲。登舟望秋月，空憶謝將_軍。余亦能高詠，斯_{人不可聞。} 明朝_{掛帆去，} 楓葉落紛紛_。 https://tw.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20060927000011KK00448& p=%E9%9B%B2%20%E8%A9%A9%20%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%87 へ

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Presentations

ごとづてはぬぬはぷどのでばふぢぬどっちぴどはのびちのつばひづびづのぴちぴどはのびとちぶづぢづづのつづぶづぬはばづつはぶづひぴとづっはふひびづはてぷひどぴどのでぴとどびぴとづびどび〮

Publications

• きちへどねづぃはぬどの〬こぴづぶづのことづひぷははつ〬くぬどぶどづひぇづは〛ひはべ〬こちのつひどのづあはのべ〬いちぶどつうふっとび〨〲〰〱〸〩〮ぉつづのぴどてべどのでぴとづびはふひっづびはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべどのっぬはふつ〭ひづびはぬぶどのでびどねふぬちぴどはのび〮 Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 〨ひづぶどびづつねちのふびっひどばぴびふぢねどぴ〭ぴづつ〩

• きちへどねづぃはぬどの〬おづちの〭すぶづびぇひちのつばづどへ〬こちのつひどのづあはのべ〬こぴづぶづのことづひぷははつ〮ぉね〭ばちっぴはてっはぬつばははぬびはのぴとづどのぴづひねどぴぴづのっづはてばひづっどばどぴちぴどはのどのちぇづのづひちぬぃどひっふぬちぴどはのきはつづぬ〮 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 〨どのばひづば〩

Presentations

• ぎはぶづねぢづひ〲〰〱〴〺えふのぴづひざちぬぬづべ〬ぁふびぴひちぬどち〮 Poster〮ぁげぃぃここぁののふちぬぷはひに〭びとはば〮 • きちべ〲〰〱〵〺きづぬぢはふひのづ〬ぁふびぴひちぬどち〮 Talk〮ぁげぃぃここぃはのぶづっぴどはのぷはひにびとはば〮 • おふぬべ〲〰〱〵〺あひどびぢちのづ〬ぁふびぴひちぬどち〮 Talk〮ぁきくこぃはのてづひづのっづ〮 • ぎはぶづねぢづひ〲〰〱〵〺ぐちひどび〬うひちのっづ〮 Talk〮すはふのでぐとべびどっどびぴぁののふちぬきづづぴどので〨げおぐ〩へど

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〨いぅぐえす〲〩〮

• うづぢひふちひべ〲〰〱〶〺あづひぬどの〬ぇづひねちのべ〮 Poster〮えどでと〭いづ〜のどぴどはのぃぬはふつちのつぐひづっどば〭どぴちぴどはのてはひちつぶちのっどのでぃぬどねちぴづぐひづつどっぴどはの〨えい〨ぃぐ〩〲〩っはのてづひづのっづ〮

• おふのづ〲〰〱〶〺ぐちひどび〬うひちのっづ〮 Talk〮ぁぴねはびばとづひどっきはつづぬぬどのでぷはひにびとはば〨いぅぐえす〲〩〮 • ぎはぶづねぢづひ〲〰〱〶〺がはひのづ〬ぁふびぴひちぬどち〮 Invited talk and poster〮ぁげぃぃここ

ぁののふちぬぷはひにびとはば〮

• おふぬべ〲〰〱〷〺いづぬてぴ〬ごとづぎづぴとづひぬちのつび〮 Talk and poster〮ごとづてふぴふひづはてっふねふぬふびばちひちねづぴひどびちぴどはのぷはひにびとはば〮

• ぎはぶづねぢづひ〲〰〱〷〺こべつのづべ〬ぁふびぴひちぬどち〮 Talk〮しげうしはひにびとはば〮

• うづぢひふちひべ〲〰〱〸〺こべつのづべ〬ぁふびぴひちぬどち〮 Lightning lecture and poster〮ぁきくこ〭ぉぃこえきくっはのてづひづのっづ〮

• うづぢひふちひべ〲〰〱〸〺がはひのづ〬ぁふびぴひちぬどち〮 Presentation given by S. Sherwood on my behalf〮ぐちの〭ぇぁここっはのてづひづのっづ〮

• おふのづ〲〰〱〸〺きづぬぢはふひのづ〬ぁふびぴひちぬどち〮 Presentation〮ぁげぃぃここぃはのぶづっぴどはのぷはひに〭びとはば〮

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ごとどびなはどのぴ【っはぴふぴづぬぬづ】ぐといとちびぢづづのちのづへっどぴどのでちのつっとちぬぬづのでどのでなはふひのづべ〬ちのつぉぷはふぬつぬどにづぴはぴとちのにちぬぬぴとはびづぷとはっはのぴひどぢふぴづつぴはねべびっどづのぴど〜っちのつばづひびはのちぬつづぶづぬはばねづのぴ〬ぴとはびづぷとはびふばばはひぴづつねづぷとづのばひはでひづびびぷちびびぬはぷ〬ぴとはびづぷとはばひはぶどつづつぴづっとのどっちぬ〬びっどづのぴど〜っ〬ばづひびはのちぬちびびどびぴちのっづ〬ぴとはびづぷとはねちつづねづてづづぬぷづぬっはねづちのつとちばばべどのぶちひどはふびばぬちっづび〬ちのつぴとはびづぷとはねちつづびふひづぉにづばぴばひちっぴどびどのでびばはひぴびちのつなはどのどのではぴとづひちっぴどぶどぴどづび〮きはびぴどねばはひぴちのぴぬべ〬ぉちねつづづばぬべでひちぴづてふぬぴはこぴづぶづのことづひぷははつてはひぴちにどのでねづちぬはのでてはひぴとどびなはふひのづべ〬てはひびふででづびぴどのでびふっとちびぴどねふぬちぴどのでひづびづちひっとぴはばどっ〬てはひばひはぶどつどのででふどつちのっづちのつどつづちびぴとひはふでとはふぴぴとづばひはなづっぴ〬ちのつてはひてふのつどのでねべびっとはぬちひびとどば〮えづとちびぢづづのてちのぴちびぴどっちぴびふばばはひぴどのでねづ〬ちのつぉとちぶづぴひづねづのつはふびぬべづのなはべづつぷはひにどのでぷどぴととどねぢはぴとてはひびっどづのぴど〜っちのつばづひびはのちぬひづちびはのび〮きづちのぷとどぬづ〬ぉぷはふぬつぬどにづぴはつづづばぬべぴとちのにこちのつひどのづあはのべてはひどねねづつどちぴづぬべちっっづばぴどのでぴとづなはどのぴぐといどつづち〬てはひぴとづねちのべびっどづのぴど〜っつどびっふびびどはのびつふひどのでねべびぴちべちぴがきい〬てはひばひはぶどつどのでどのびどでとぴてふぬっはねねづのぴびちのつびふで〭でづびぴどのでちぬぴづひのちぴどぶづちばばひはちっとづび〬ちのつてはひちぬぷちべびぢづどのでぶづひべびふばばはひぴどぶづ〮あはぴとこぴづぶづのことづひぷははつちのつこちのつひどのづあはのべとちぶづぢづづのどのづへとちふびぴどぢぬづびはふひっづびはてどつづちび〬どのばちひぴどっふぬちひてはひぴとづねづぴとはつはぬはでどづびちのつぴとづひづびふぬぴどのぴづひばひづぴちぴどはのび〬ちのつぴとづどひぬはでどっちぬちのつばとべびどっちぬっひどぴどっどびねびとちぶづぢづづのぶづひべとづぬばてふぬぴはつひちぷねはひづひづ〜のづつっはのっぬふびどはのび〮ごとづどひにどのつのづびびとちびぢづづのぶづひべねふっとちばばひづっどちぴづつ〮ぉてづづぬばひどぶどぬづでづつぴとちぴぉとちつぴとづはばばはひぴふのどぴべぴはぷはひにぷどぴとぢはぴとはてぴとづね〮おづちの〭すぶづびぇひちのつばづどへとちびぢづづのはてぴとづでひづちぴづびぴちびびどびぴちのっづ〬どのばちひぴどっふぬちひぴはびづぴふばちのつぴはちのちぬべびづぴとづぷはひにぷどぴとがきいずちのつぴはっとちぬぬづのでづねべぴとどのにどのでっはふのぴぬづびびぴどねづび〮ぉちねぴとちのにてふぬてはひぴとづぴどねづとづびばづのぴぴはとづぬばねづぴとひはふでとぴとづぐとい〬ちのつてはひとどびつどびっづひのどのでづべづ〮ぉぷはふぬつちぬびはぬどにづぴはぴとちのにおちびはのぅぶちのびてはひちぬぷちべびぢづどのでちぶちどぬちぢぬづてはひねづぷとづのぉのづづつづつどぴ〬どのばちひぴどっふぬちひぴはつどびっふびびしげうびづぴふばびちのつでづのづひちぬばぬちののどので〮ぁぬぬちぬはのでぴとづぐとい〬ねべぴとづびどびっはねねどぴぴづづびとちぶづぢづづのばちひぴどっふぬちひぬべびふばばはひぴどぶづちのつへどどど

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つひづちごちびっとづぴぴは〬げはねちどのげはづとひどで〬こぴづぶづのぐとどばばび〬ちのつぁぬづへこづのぇふばぴち〮ぉぷはふぬつぬどにづぴはづへばひづびびねべつづづばづびぴでひちぴどぴふつづぴはぁのでづぬちきちとちひちなてはひでどぶどのでねづちてづぷはばばはひぴふの〭どぴどづびぴはぴづちっと〬ちのつねちのべはばばはひぴふのどぴどづびぴはぴちにづばちひぴどのはふぴひづちっとちっぴどぶどぴどづび〬ぷとどっとぉにづづばふのてはひでづぴぴちぢぬづねづねはひどづびてひはね〮ぇどぶづのねべどのぴづひづびぴてはひつづぢちぴづはのちぷどつづひちのでづはてぴはばどっび〬ぉぷはふぬつぬどにづぴはぴとちのにくぬどぶどづひぇづは〛ひはべ〬ざどびとちぬいどへどぴ〬ぁぬちどのがちとづぬぬづっ〬あちはおどちぷづど〬ちのつはぴとづひび〬てはひねちのべづのつぬづびびつどびっふびびどはのびのはぴはのぬべちぢはふぴびっどづのっづ〬ぢふぴちぢはふぴでづはばはぬどぴどっび〬ぬちのでふちでづび〬っふぬぴふひづ〬づの〭ぶどひはのねづのぴちぬどびびふづび〬ちのつびはっどづぴちぬどびびふづびちびぷづぬぬ〮ぉぴとちのにぴとづねてはひてちのぴちびぴどっにのはぷ〭ぬづつでづづへっとちのでづ〬ちのつてはひぷはのつづひてふぬねはねづのぴびはてぬはでどっび〬ぷどびつはね〬っひづちぴどぶどぴべ〬ばひはぢぬづねひづ〭てひちねどので〬ちのつびはねづぴどねづびびはぬふぴどはのばひはばはびちぬび〮がどてづどのこべつのづべとちびぢづづのふぴぴづひぬべとちばばべちのつっはぬはふひてふぬぴとちのにびぴはざどびとちぬいどへどぴ〬あちはおどちぷづど〬くぬどぶどづひぇづは〛ひはべ〬こぴづづてちのぃはのぴひちっぴはひ〬こぴづぶづのことづひぷははつ〬かちぴひどのきづどびびのづひ〬きちぴぴぅのでぬちのつ〬ぁぬづなちのつひはいどがふっち〬きちひではぴあちつはひ〬げべちのえはぬねづび〬こぷちげちぴと〬がちふひどづきづのぶどづぬ〬ぇちぢぁぢひちねはぷどぴぺ〬ぁのでづぬちきちとちひちな〬ぁぬづへこづのぇふばぴち〬ぅびぴづぢちのぁぢづぬぬちのざどぬぬちひつはの〬くぬどぶづひぁのでづぬどぬ〬ぎちつなちえづひでづひ〬がちふひづのっづぇちひっどち〭ざどぬぬちつち〬ぐづぴづひぇどぢびはの〬かちどぴぬどのぎちふでとぴづの〬しどぬぬづねえふどびにちねば〬ぎどっにえづひはぬつ〬ことどひぬづべけどの〬おはづこっふぴぴぐとどぬぬどばび〬ぁねちのつどのづこっとちづ〛づひ〬ぎどつとどぎどびとちのぴ〬いちぶどつうふっとび〬ぁぢとのどぬぐひちびちつ〬いちねどちのはびきちのぴ〭びどび〬いちのどづぬえづひのメのつづぺ〭いづっにづひび〬おちびはのぅぶちのび〬いはののちぇひづづの〬がどびちぁぬづへちのつづひ〬ぃとひどびごふひのづべ〬きづぬどびびちえちひぴ〬きちひぴどのおふっにづひ〬ずはルごとはねちび〬ぁののちさににはぬち〬ぃとひどびあふぬぬ〬きちぴがどばびはの〬きちひにふびいはのちぴ〬おちぴどのかちぬち〬ぎどっはぬちきちとづひ〬ぁっちっどちぐづばぬづひ〬おふぬづびかちぴなちひ〬こちひちとぐづひにどのび〭かどひにばちぴひどっに〬ぐちふぬこばづのっづ〬きちひぴどのいづかちふぷづ〬ざづひはのどぱふづがちでは〬ぅちひぬいふひちの〬こちのちちえはぢづどっとど〬がどすふづ〬がどふすどぬどので〬ごちねねちびがはふでとひちの〬えづぬづのきどぬぬねちの〬きちひっはかふぬーにづ〬こぴづ〞づすばねち〬ぴとづひづびぴはてぴとづぃぃげぃぴづちね〬ぴとづさぎこしぉのぴづひのちぴどはのちぬえはふびづてひどづのつびてひはね〲〰〱〰〬〲〰〱〵〬ちのつ〲〰〱〷〬ちのつねちのべはぴとづひび〮がどてづどのぐちひどびぷちびちびちねちぺどのでちのつてふのちのつぉぷはふぬつぬどにづぴはぴとちのにあどのぴちいどちぬぬは〬かちひどのづきちひぱふはどび〬ざづのちのっづおはふひのラ〬きちひどづ〭ぐどづひひづがづてづぢぶひづ〬ぇづのづぶどヨぶづこヨぺづ〬ぅとはふちひのきどぬぬはふひ〬こは〜ちぐひはぴはばちばちつちにど〬きちひ〭ぴどのごふひぢづぴ〬おづちの〭すぶづびぇひちのつばづどへ〬ぁぬちどのがちとづぬぬづっ〬ぃちひはぬどのづきふぬぬづひ〬うひラつラひどっえはふひつどの〬おづちの〭がはふどびいふてひづびのづ〬きどっとづぬぃちばつづひはふ〬うひちのョはどびうはひでづぴ〬おづちの〭あちばぴどびぴづきちつづぬづどのづ〬ぃぬちふつどちこぴふぢづのひちふっと〬こちのつひどのづあはのべ〬がどことちの〬うぬはひづのぴどのがづねはののどづひ〬こべぬぶちどのがちび〭びはのつづ〬ごちのでふべあづひぴひちのつ〬きちへづのっづがづてづぶひづ〬がぬふロびうどぴちあはひひづぬぬ〬きちひでちふへざちぬび〬しちのでうふへどので〬いちぶどつぃはばばどの〬ぁべねづひどっこばどでち〬ぉはのづぬちきふびちぴ〬ぃちねどぬぬづげどびど〬ぁひぴづねうづは〜ぬはぶ〬へどぶ

(16)

ごとづちつねどのちのつばひはてづびびどはのちぬびぴち〛ぷづひづてちのぴちびぴどっちぴばふぴぴどのでびっどづのっづはのちびねははぴとぴひち〭なづっぴはひべ〬びはぉぷはふぬつちぬびはぬどにづぴはぴとちのにあひはのぷづのこねどぴと〬こぷちげちぴと〬こぴづばとづのぇひちべ〬こど〭ねはのづぐふひつはの〬ぃとひどびぃちののはの〬ざどぬどちぃは〬かちひどのづきちひぱふはどび〬きちひぴどのづきちとづひはふ〬うひちのっにぇふべはのちのつちぬぬはぴとづひび〮ぉちねでひちぴづてふぬぴはぃちぴとづひどのづちのついどつどづひぇはふぢづひぴぷとはにどのつぬべは〛づひづつねづぴはびぴちべちぴぴとづどひとはふびづつふひどのでねべぴどねづちぴがきい〬ぷとどっとぷちびづへぴひづねづぬべとづぬばてふぬちのつぷちひねづつふばねべとづちひぴ〮ぉちぬびはちっにのはぷぬづつでづちぬぬてひどづのつびちのつてちねどぬべ〬どのっぬふつどのできラぬちのどづおちねぢづちふ〬ぐどづひひづぇラではふぴ〬がどおとどと〭えふちので〬ずとちのですふ〭おふ〬ぁねべがどの〬ぁぢづづひきちとづのつひはは〬ぅねどぬべさのどぎはでづと〬がぬはべつうはふひのどづひ〬こはとづどぬこちぬどねど〬ちのつおどちのでがどちのねづど〮ぉちぬびはてづづぬどのつづぢぴづつぴはちぬぬてひどづのつびぷどぴとぷとはぉばぬちべづつぴづののどび〬つどつはっづちのびぷどねび〬ひふのび〬とどにづび〬ばぬちべづつぢちつねどのぴはの〬づぴっ〮〮〮ぐづはばぬづぷとはばふぴねづはのぴとどびぬどてづぴひちっにつづびづひぶづちびばづっどちぬねづのぴどはの〮あづひのちひつがづでひちびぷちびねべふのは〞っどちぬねづのぴはひちのつひはぬづねはつづぬ〬ちのつぉちねつづづばぬべでひちぴづてふぬぴとちぴとづどのどぴどちぴづつねべばちびびどはのてはひっぬどねちぴづちのつぷづちぴとづひびっどづのっづ〬ちのつぴとちぴとづのふひぴふひづつどぴ〮ぉぷどぬぬちぬぷちべびぢづはぢぬどでちぴづつぴはとどね〮おづちの〭ぐとどぬどばばづいふぶづぬ〬ざちぬづひどちのおづぷぴはふには〛〬ちのつぁねべがどのとちぶづちぬびはぢづづのっひふっどちぬどのぴとちぴひづでちひつ〮こばづっどちぬぴとちのにびちぬびはではぴはかははきはつふにてはひばひはぶどつどのでてちのぴちびぴどっばはづねびちぢはふぴっぬはふつびてひはねうひづのっとちのつかはひづちのぬどぴづひちぴふひづ〮がどにづぷどびづ〬ねちのべぴとちのにびぴはちぬぬねべてひどづのつびぷとはとちぶづにづばぴねべぴとどひびぴてはひぬちのでふちでづびちっぴどぶづちのつてふぬ〜ぬぬづつちぴぴとづびちねづぴどねづ〮うどのちぬぬべ〬ぉぷはふぬつぬどにづぴはぴとちのにぴとづぃづのぴひづはてぅへっづぬぬづのっづ〨ぁげぃぃここ〩てはひばひはぶどつどのでびふばばはひぴ〬っちひづづひつづぶづぬはばねづのぴはばばはひぴふのどぴどづび〬ちのつてふのつどのでてはひぴひちぶづぬびちのつっはのてづひづのっづび〮ぉづへぴづのつねべぴとちのにびぴはぴとづしぃげぐ〬きどっとづぬげどへづの〬ぃとひどびぴどちのおちにはぢ〬こぴづぶづのことづひぷははつ〬ちのつぴとづぴづちねはてびっどづのぴどびぴびちひはふのつぴとづね〬ぷとはちぬぬはぷづつねづぴはなはどのぴとづ〱びぴしぃげぐこふねねづひこっとははぬはのぃぬどねちぴづきはつづぬいづぶづぬはばねづのぴ【ぁぴねはびばとづひどっきはどびぴぐひはっづびびづび】〮ぉぴどびふのつはふぢぴづつぬべはのづはてぴとづぢづびぴねづねはひどづびはてねべぐとい〺ぉとちつぴとづっとちのっづぴはねづづぴばひづびぴどでどはふびびっどづのぴどびぴびちびぷづぬぬちびべはふのでびっどづのぴどびぴびてひはねちひはふのつぴとづぷはひぬつ〬ぴはぢふどぬつねちのべのづぷどのぴづひのちぴどはのちぬてひどづのつびとどばび〬ちのつぴはぬづちひのびはねづはてぴとづぢちびづびちぢはふぴっぬどねちぴづねはつづぬつづぶづぬはばねづのぴ〮こどのっづぉっちののはぴねづのぴどはのづぶづひべはのづとづひづ〬ぉぷはふぬつぬどにづぴはぴとちのにちぬぬはぴとづひびぴとちぴちひづっぬはびづへぶ

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ぃはのぶづっぴどぶづばちひちねづぴづひどぺちぴどはのびびぴひふででぬづぴはひづばひづびづのぴぴとづびばちぴどちぬちのつぴづねばはひちぬぶちひどちぢどぬどぴべはてっはのぶづっぴどはの〮ごとどびねちべぢづぢづっちふびづぴとづべぷひはのでぬべちびびふねづぴとちぴっはのぶづっぴどはのっちのぢづつどちでのはびづつてひはねぴとづぬちひでづ〭びっちぬづびぴちぴづ〬ぷどぴとはふぴにのはぷどのでぴとづっはのぶづっぴどぶづとどびぴはひべ〮ごとづっはのっづばぴはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべ〬ぷとどっとびぴちぴづびぴとちぴっはのぶづっぴどはのつづばづのつびはのどぴびはぷのとどびぴはひべ〬っはふぬつぢづふびづつぴははぶづひっはねづぴとどびどびびふづ〮ごとどびぴとづびどびばひはばはびづびちのづぷてひちねづぷはひにてはひっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべ〬ぷどぴとちつどびぴどのっぴどはのぢづぴぷづづのねどっひはびぴちぴづ〨ふのひづびはぬぶづつ〩ねづねはひべちのつねちっひはびぴちぴづ〨ぬちひでづ〭びっちぬづ〩ねづねはひべ〮ごとづぴとづびどびふびづびちとどづひちひっとべはてねはつづぬびづどぴとづひどのげちつどちぴどぶづ〭ぃはのぶづっぴどぶづぅぱふどぬどぢ〭ひどふねはひふのつづひ〜へづつ〭ねちっひはびぴちぴづっはのつどぴどはのび〬ちのつちのちぬべびづびぴとづひづっはぶづひべぴはとはねはでづの〭どびちぴどはのばづひぴふひぢちぴどはのび〮ぉぴづへばぬはどぴびぴとひづづぴべばづびはてねはつづぬび〺ちぃぬはふつ〭げづびはぬぶどのできはつづぬ〬ちぇづのづひちぬぃどひっふぬちぴどはのきはつづぬ〨ぇぃき〩どの〱いちのつどの〳い〬ちのつちびどねばぬづばひづつちぴはひ〭ばひづべねはつづぬ〮ごとづひづびふぬぴびびとはぷぴとちぴっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべばぬちべびちひはぬづはのぴどねづびっちぬづびぢづぴぷづづのちのとはふひちのつちつちべ〮ぃはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべどのぴどねづどびつひちねちぴどっちぬぬべづのとちのっづつぢべっはの〭ぶづっぴどぶづはひでちのどびちぴどはのどのびばちっづ〮きどっひはびぴちぴづねづねはひべどびてはふのつぴはぢづねはびぴぬべびぴはひづつどのぢはふのつちひべぬちべづひねどっひはびぴちぴづびぴひふっぴふひづびはてぷちぴづひぶちばはふひちのつぴづねばづひちぴふひづ〬ぷどぴとちつはね〭どのちのぴぷちぴづひぶちばはふひねづねはひべ〮うふひぴとづひねはひづ〬ぴとづっはのぶづっぴどぶづねどっひはびぴちぴづどびびとはぷのぴはぢづどのとづひづのぴぬべふのびぴちぢぬづ〬ぷとどっとっはの〜ひねびぴとちぴにのはぷぬづつでづはてぴとづねちっひはびぴちぴづっはのつどぴどはのびどびのはぴびふ〞っどづのぴぴはばひづつどっぴっはのぶづっぴどはの〮ごとづびぴちのつちひつぶづひびどはのはてぴとづぇぃきちぬひづちつべびとはぷびちひづちびはのちぢぬづぬづぶづぬはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづばづひびどびぴづのっづ〮ぁびどねばぬづねはつど〜っちぴどはのはてぴとづぇぃきっはのぶづっぴどはのびっとづねづ〬ねづちのぴぴはどねばひはぶづっはぬつばははぬびはぶづひはっづちのび〬どねばひはぶづびびはねづちびばづっぴびはてねづねはひべぢふぴつづぴづひどはひちぴづびはぴとづひび〮しどぴとぴとどびねはつど〜っちぴどはの〬ぴとづぇぃきっはぬつばははぬびぢづっはねづぬづびびっはぬつちのつぴとふびぷづちにづひぴはぴひどででづひっはのぶづっぴどはの〮ごとどびぬづちつびぴはねはひづどのぴづひねどぴぴづのぴばひづっどばどぴちぴどはの〬ばちひぴぬべっはひひづっぴどのでちぴべばどっちぬぇぃきぢどちび〮へぶどど

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ちのつびふででづびぴびぷちべびぴはつはどぴ〮ぉぴひづぶづちぬびぴとづばはぴづのぴどちぬはてねどっひはびぴちぴづねづねはひべぴはどねばひはぶづぇぃきぬちひでづ〭びっちぬづばひはばづひぴどづび〮

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がづびばちひちねラぴひどびちぴどはのびひづばひラびづのぴづのぴづのっはひづねちぬぬちぶちひどちぢどぬどぴラびばちぴどは〭ぴづねばはひづぬぬづつづぬちっはのぶづっぴどはの〮ぃづぬちばづふぴばひはぶづのどひつふてちどぴぱふづぬづびばちひちねラぴひどびちぴどはのびびふばばはびづのぴ〬ムぴはひつ〬ぱふづぬちっはのぶづっぴどはのばづふぴリぴひづつどちでのはびぴどぱふラづムばちひぴどひつづびっはのつどぴどはのびつづでひちのつづラっとづぬぬづ〮がづっはのっづばぴつづねラねはどひづつづぬちっはのぶづっぴどはの〬びどでのど〜ちのぴぱふづぬちっはのぶづっぴどはのつラばづのつつづびちばひはばひづとどびぴはどひづ〬ばはふひひちどぴばづひねづぴぴひづつづひラびはふつひづっづばひはぢぬヨねづ〮ぃづぴぴづぴとヨびづばひはばはびづふののはふぶづちふっちつひづつ〧ラぴふつづてちどびちのぴぬちつどびぴどのっぴどはのづのぴひづぬちねラねはどひづねどっひは〭ラぴちぴ〨のはのひラびはぬふづ〩づぴぬちねラねはどひづねちっひは〭ラぴちぴ〨つづでひちのつづラっとづぬぬづ〩〮がちぴとヨびづちひづっはふひびムふのづとどラひちひっとどづつづねはつヨぬづび〺ふのねはつヨぬづひラびはぬぶちのぴぬづびのふちでづび〬ふのきはつヨぬづつづぃどひっふぬちぴどはのぇラのラひちぬづ〨ぇぃき〩づの〱いづぴづの〳い〬づぴふのねはつヨぬづびどねばぬづばひはどづ〭ばひラつちぴづふひ〮ぉぬびびはのぴばぬちっラびびはどぴづのぅぱふどぬどぢひづげちつどちぴどて〭ぃはのぶづっぴどてびはどぴづのっはのつどぴどはのつづねちっひは〭ラぴちぴ〜へラ〬づぴはのちのちぬべびづぬづふひひラばはのびづムつづびばづひぴふひぢちぴどはのびつ〧とはねはでラのラどびちぴどはの〮がちねラねはどひづつづぬちっはのぶづっぴどはのちふのぴづねばびぴべばどぱふづっはねばひどびづのぴひづふのづとづふひづづぴふのなはふひ〬づぴづぬぬづちばばちひちヮぴてはひぴづねづのぴぬどラづムぬ〧はひでちのどびちぴどはのっはのぶづっぴどぶづつちのびぬ〧づびばちっづ〮がちねラねはどひづつふねどっひは〭ラぴちぴづびぴづびびづのぴどづぬぬづねづのぴびぴはっにラづつちのびぬづびびぴひふっぴふひづびねどっひは〭ラぴちぴつづっはふっとづ〭ぬどねどぴづつづぬちぶちばづふひつ〧づちふづぴつづぬちぴづねばラひちぴふひづ〬ぬちねラねはどひづつづぬちぶちばづふひつ〧づちふラぴちのぴつはねどのちのぴづ〮いづばぬふび〬ぬづねどっひは〭ラぴちぴっはのぶづっぴどてづびぴどのぴひどのびヨぱふづねづのぴどのびぴちぢぬづ〬っづぱふどっはの〜ひねづぱふづぬちっはののちどびびちのっづつづぬ〧ラぴちぴつづでひちのつづラっとづぬぬづの〧づびぴばちびびふ〞びちのぴづばはふひばひラつどひづぬちっはのぶづっぴどはの〮くのねはのぴひづづのびふどぴづぱふづぬづぇぃきつづひラてラひづのっづちつラなムつづびてはひねづびづのっはふひちでづちのぴづびつづねラねはどひづ〮ぐちひふのづねはつど〜っちぴどはのびどねばぬづつふぇぃき〬はのちねラぬどはひづっづひぴちどのびちびばづっぴびつづぬちねラねはどひづ〬ねちどびづのつラぴラひどはひづつ〧ちふぴひづび〮ぃづぴぴづねはつど〜っちぴどはのひづのつぬづびばはっとづびてひはどつづびねはどのびてひはどつづびづぴちどのびどねはどのびちばぴづびムつラっぬづのっとづひぬちっはのぶづっぴどはの〮がちばぬふどづつふぇぃきねはつど〜ラつづぶどづのぴちどのびどばぬふびどのぴづひねどぴぴづのぴづ〬ひラびはぬぶちのぴふのぢどちどびぴべばどぱふづつづびねはつヨぬづび〮へどへ

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ばはふひひづばひラびづのぴづひぬちねラねはどひづつふねどっひは〭ラぴちぴ〬ばづひねづぴぴちのぴちどのびどつ〧ちねラぬどはひづひぬづびばひは〭ばひどラぴラびつづでひちのつづラっとづぬぬづつづびぇぃきび〮

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Abstract xvii Résumé xix 1 Introduction 1 〱〮〱ごとづのちぴふひづはてっはのぶづっぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〱〮〱〮〱しとちぴどびっはのぶづっぴどはの〿〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〱〮〱〮〲ぃはのぶづっぴどぶづばひはっづびびづびちのつびぴひふっぴふひづび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〱〮〱〮〳ごとづひはぬづはてつづづばっはのぶづっぴどはのどのぴとづぷちぴづひちのつづのづひでべっべっぬづび〮〮〱〰〱〮〲ぃはのぶづっぴどはのどのぇづのづひちぬぃどひっふぬちぴどはのきはつづぬび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〱〱〮〲〮〱ごとづでひちのつっとちぬぬづのでづはてっはのぶづっぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〱〱〮〲〮〲げづばひづびづのぴちぴどはのはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづばひはっづびびづびぢべばちひちねづぴづひどぺちぴどはのびはてっはのぶづっぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〱〱〮〲〮〳ぉびびふづびぷどぴとっはのぶづっぴどぶづばちひちねづぴづひどぺちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〴〱〮〲〮〴けふちびど〭ぅぱふどぬどぢひどふね〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〶〱〮〳ごとづはひどでどのびはてぴとづっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべどびびふづ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〱〮〳〮〱ごとづつどちでのはびぴどっちびびふねばぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〱〮〳〮〲ごとづつどちでのはびぴどっちびびふねばぴどはのばひはぢぬづね〺ぷとべどぴねちべぢづどのちっっふひちぴづ〲〴〱〮〳〮〳こはぬふぴどはの〺ちばひはでのはびぴどってはひねふぬちぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〴〱〮〴ぃはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〶〱〮〴〮〱いづ〜のどぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〶〱〮〴〮〲きづねはひべぶびぐづひびどびぴづのっづ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〷〱〮〴〮〳ごとひづづぴべばづびはてねづねはひべびぴはひちでづ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〷〱〮〴〮〴ぐひはっづびびづびどのつふっどのでっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〳〰〱〮〴〮〵ぅへちねばぬづびはてどのぴひはつふっぴどはのはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべどのぴはぇぃきび〮〮〳〱へへど

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〱〮〴〮〶ごどねづびっちぬづびはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〳〵〱〮〴〮〷こどねばぬづねはつづぬびはてねづねはひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〳〶〱〮〵ごとづひづぬちぴどはのびとどばぢづぴぷづづのねづねはひべちのつはひでちのどびちぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〳〶〱〮〵〮〱しとべびふっとちぬどのに〿〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〳〶〱〮〵〮〲ぃはのぶづっぴどはのはひでちのどびちぴどはのちのつっはのぶづっぴどぶづびづぬて〭ちででひづでちぴどはの〮〮〮〮〳〹〱〮〵〮〳ごとづひはぬづはてっはぬつばははぬびどのはひでちのどびちぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〴〳〱〮〵〮〴げづばひづびづのぴちぴどはのはてっはぬつばははぬびどのぇぃきび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〴〶〱〮〵〮〵ぃちびづはてがきいず〺つづづばっはのぶづっぴどはのびっとづねづ〬っはぬつばははぬびっとづねづ〬ちのつぴとづひねちぬ〭ばぬふねづびっとづねづ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〴〸〱〮〶ぁどねはてぴとづぴとづびどび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〵〱〱〮〷くぶづひぶどづぷはてぴとづぴとづびどび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〵〲

2 Identifying the sources of convective memory 55

〲〮〱ぁぢびぴひちっぴ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〵〵〲〮〲ぉのぴひはつふっぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〵〶〲〮〳きづぴとはつび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〱〲〮〳〮〱ごとづびどねふぬちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〱〲〮〳〮〲きはつづぬちのつびづぴふば〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〳〲〮〳〮〳くぴとづひびどねふぬちぴどはのびづぴぴどのでび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〵〲〮〳〮〴いづびどでのはてばづひぴふひぢちぴどはのづへばづひどねづのぴび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〵〲〮〴こふばばぬづねづのぴちひべどのてはひねちぴどはのはのぴとづねづぴとはつび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〷〲〮〴〮〱きづぴとはつびてはひぴとづばひづぬどねどのちひべ〲いぴづびぴび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〷〲〮〴〮〲きづぴとはつびてはひぴとづ〳いびどねふぬちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〶〸〲〮〵ぅへばぬはひちぴどはのぢべ〲いぴづびぴびどねふぬちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〷〰〲〮〵〮〱ぃはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべちぴぴひどぢふぴづつぴはねどっひはびぴちぴづびぴひふっぴふひづび〮〮〮〮〷〱〲〮〵〮〲しとどっとぶちひどちぢぬづびちひづぴとづねちどのびはふひっづびはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべ〿〮〷〲〲〮〵〮〳げはぬづはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづびづぬて〭ちででひづでちぴどはのどの〲い〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〷〳〲〮〵〮〴さのっづひぴちどのぴべづびぴどねちぴづてはひぴとづ〲いひづびふぬぴび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〷〵〲〮〵〮〵こづのびどぴどぶどぴべぴはぴとづねどっひはばとべびどっちぬびっとづねづ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〷〶〲〮〶げづびふぬぴびてひはね〳いびどねふぬちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〷〸〲〮〶〮〱ぉのぷとどっとぶちひどちぢぬづびどびっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべびぴはひづつ〿〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〷〸〲〮〶〮〲ぉのぴづひばひづぴどのでぴとづひづびばはのびづぴはとはねはでづのどびちぴどはのはてぴづねばづひちぴふひづ〮〸〳〲〮〶〮〳しとどっとぬちべづひはてぴとづちぴねはびばとづひづっちひひどづびねはびぴねづねはひべ〿〮〮〮〮〮〸〵へへどど

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〲〮〶〮〴げはぬづはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづはひでちのどびちぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〸〷〲〮〶〮〵ぎづでぬどでどぢぬづひはぬづはてびふひてちっづ〝ふへづび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〸〸〲〮〶〮〶こづっはのつちひべひづびばはのびづ〺ちねどっひはびぴちぴづ〭ねちっひはびぴちぴづてづづつぢちっに〮〮〮〮〸〹〲〮〶〮〷ぇづのづひちぬっちぶづちぴび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〹〱〲〮〶〮〸ぉねばぬどっちぴどはのびてはひばちひちねづぴづひどぺちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〹〳〲〮〶〮〹しとべつはづびねづねはひべっはねづてひはねのづちひぴとづびふひてちっづ〿〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〹〴〲〮〷こふばばぬづねづのぴちひべひづびふぬぴび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〹〵〲〮〷〮〱しとどっとぬちべづひはてぴとづちぴねはびばとづひづっちひひどづびねはびぴねづねはひべ〿〮〮〮〮〮〹〵〲〮〷〮〲ぅへどびぴづのっづはてびぴひふっぴふひづびぶびつづぴちどぬづつつづびっひどばぴどはのはてぴとづね〮〮〮〮〹〶〲〮〸こふばばぬづねづのぴちひべつどびっふびびどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〹〸〲〮〸〮〱げぃぅびぴちぴづちのつねづぴとはつぶちぬどつちぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〹〸〲〮〸〮〲げはぬづはてばづひぴふひぢちぴどはのびっちぬづ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〹〹〲〮〹ぃはのっぬふびどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〹〹 3 Isolating microstate memory: CRM & toy model 103 〳〮〱ぉのぴひはつふっぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〰〳〳〮〲ぉびはぬちぴどのでぴとづねどっひはびぴちぴづねづねはひべどのしげう〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〰〷〳〮〲〮〱きづぴとはつ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〰〷〳〮〲〮〲いづびっひどばぴどはのはてぴとづどのびぴちぢどぬどぴべぴとちぴちばばづちひびどのぴとづ〜へづつ〭ねちっひはびぴちぴづづへばづひどねづのぴびどのしげう〺でひはぷぴとちのつつづっちべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〱〴〳〮〲〮〳きづっとちのどびねびづへばぬちどのどのでぴとづどのびぴちぢどぬどぴべつづぶづぬはばねづのぴ〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〲〲〳〮〳こぴはっとちびぴどっぴはべねはつづぬはてっはのぶづっぴどはのぷどぴとねづねはひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〳〱〳〮〳〮〱いづびっひどばぴどはのはてぴとづぴはべねはつづぬ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〳〱〳〮〳〮〲ぁのちぬべぴどっちぬちのちぬべびどびはてぴとづぴはべねはつづぬ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〴〲〳〮〳〮〳ぎふねづひどっちぬどのぴづでひちぴどはのはてぴとづぴはべねはつづぬ〺げぃぅひふのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〴〹〳〮〳〮〴くびっどぬぬちぴどはのびどのぴとづてひづづげぃぅづへばづひどねづのぴび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〵〰〳〮〳〮〵ごとづびぴはっとちびぴどっぴはべねはつづぬひづばひはつふっづびぷづぬぬぴとづにづべねづねはひべちびばづっぴはてぴとづぃげき〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〵〲〳〮〳〮〶ぉのぴづひばひづぴちぴどはのはてぴとづぃげきどのびぴちぢどぬどぴべぴは〜へづつねちっひはびぴちぴづづへ〭ばづひどねづのぴびぢべちきちひにはぶっとちどの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〵〶〳〮〴ぃはのっぬふびどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〶〲

4 Comparing convective memory in GCM and CRM 167

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〴〮〱ぉのぴひはつふっぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〶〷〴〮〲ぐひづびづのぴちぴどはのはてがきいず〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〶〸〴〮〲〮〱くぶづひぶどづぷはてぴとづっはぬつばははぬびっとづねづどのぴとづがきいずねはつづぬ〮〮〮〮〱〶〸〴〮〲〮〲ぐはぴづのぴどちぬびはふひっづびはてねづねはひべどのがきいず〺にづべぶちひどちぢぬづびちのつばちひち〭ねづぴづひび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〷〰〴〮〳ぐひづぬどねどのちひべづへばづひどねづのぴびはのっはぬつばははぬばちひちねづぴづひび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〷〱〴〮〴きづぴとはつび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〷〶〴〮〵いはづびがきいずとちぶづぴとづびちねづびはふひっづびはてねづねはひべちびしげう〿〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〷〷〴〮〶いはづびねはつど〜づつがきいずとちぶづぴとづびちねづねづねはひべびはふひっづび〿〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〸〴〴〮〷ぃはのっぬふびどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〹〰

5 Cold pools and precipitation intermittence 193

〵〮〱ぉのぴひはつふっぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〹〳〵〮〲きづぴとはつび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〹〷〵〮〲〮〱くぶづひぶどづぷはてぴとづっはぬつばははぬびっとづねづどのぴとづがきいずねはつづぬ〮〮〮〮〱〹〷〵〮〲〮〲ぅへばづひどねづのぴちぬちばばひはちっとぷどぴとぴとづがきいず〱いちのつ〳いびどねふぬちぴどはのび〱〹〸〵〮〳げづびふぬぴび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〹〹〵〮〳〮〱ぉのびどでとぴびはのっはぬつばははぬばひはばづひぴどづびてひはねちぃぬはふつ〭げづびはぬぶどのできはつづぬびどねふぬちぴどはのはぶづひはっづちの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〱〹〹〵〮〳〮〲ぃはねばちひどびはのぷどぴとぴとづっはぬつばははぬびはぶづひぬちのつ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〰〱〵〮〳〮〳こづのびどぴどぶどぴべはてっはぬつばははぬぴとづひねはつべのちねどっちのつつべのちねどっばひはばづひ〭ぴどづびぴはっはぬつばははぬのふねぢづひつづのびどぴべどの〱〭いがきいず〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〰〲〵〮〳〮〴こづのびどぴどぶどぴべはてぴとづっはぬつばははぬ〭っはのぶづっぴどはのどのぴづひちっぴどはのぴはっはぬつばははぬのふねぢづひつづのびどぴべどの〱〭いがきいず〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〰〴〵〮〳〮〵えどでとづひばひづっどばどぴちぴどはのてひづぱふづのっべはぶづひはっづちのびぷどぴとちとどでとづひっはぬつばははぬのふねぢづひつづのびどぴべどの〳〭いがきいず〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〰〷〵〮〴ぃはのっぬふびどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〱〶 6 Conclusion 219 〶〮〱こふねねちひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〱〹〶〮〲ぉねばぬどっちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〳〶〮〲〮〱さのつづひびぴちのつどのではてっはのぶづっぴどはの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〳〶〮〲〮〲いづぶづぬはばねづのぴはてぇぃきっはのぶづっぴどぶづばちひちねづぴづひどぺちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〳へへどぶ

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〶〮〲〮〳ぅへぴづのつづつねづちのどのではてねづねはひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〵〶〮〳がどねどぴちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〶〶〮〴うふぴふひづぷはひに〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〸〶〮〴〮〱ぎづづつてはひはぢびづひぶちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〸〶〮〴〮〲ぎづづつてはひとどでと〭ひづびはぬふぴどはのびどねふぬちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〲〹〶〮〴〮〳ぎづづつてはひぬはぷ〭ひづびはぬふぴどはのっぬどねちぴづびどねふぬちぴどはのび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〳〰〶〮〴〮〴ぎづづつてはひぴとづはひづぴどっちぬてひちねづぷはひに〬ちのつびどねばぬど〜づつねはつづぬび〮〮〮〮〮〲〳〲〶〮〵うどのちぬぷはひつび〺ぷとちぴぴはひづねづねぢづひ〿〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〳〴 Bibliography 237 Appendices 259

A Defining convective memory 259

ぁ〮〱こづぶづひちぬぷちべびはてつづ〜のどのでっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〵〹ぁ〮〲ぁびぴちぴどびぴどっちぬつづ〜のどぴどはのはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづねづねはひべ〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〲〶〱 B Exploring convective self-aggregation with various WRF setups:

what controls self-aggregation? 263

C Statistics of water vapour, in particular for the transformation from

dry to humid states 267

D Table of homogenisation experiments performed in WRF 275

(27)

(28)

〱ぐどっぴふひづはてはひでちのどびづつつづづばっはのぶづっぴどぶづっぬはふつび〬ぷどぴとぶどびどぢぬづひちどのびとちてぴび〬はぶづひぴとづはっづちの〮ごとどびどびぴとづにどのつはてっはのぶづっぴどぶづびべびぴづねぷづちどねぴはびぴふつべ〮ぃひづつどぴ〺ぁぬばとちっはつづひび〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮ぶど〲ぐどっぴふひづはてちつどぶづひびづばはばふぬちぴどはのはてっぬはふつびはぶづひぴとづしちひねぐははぬどのぴとづぴひはばどっちぬぐちっど〜っ〺びとちぬぬはぷっぬはふつび〬っはのでづびぴふびっぬはふつび〬っどひひふびっぬはふつび〮ぁつづづばっはのぶづっぴどぶづっぬはふつふのつづひぷどのつびとづちひっはのつどぴどはのっちのづぶづのぢづびづづのはのぴとづぴはば〭ひどでとぴ〭とちのつっはひのづひ〮ごとどびづばどぴはねどぺづびはのづはてぴとづねちどのっとちぬ〭ぬづのでづびてはひちっはのぶづっぴどぶづばちひちねづぴづひどぺちぴどはの〺とはぷぴはひづばひづびづのぴびふっとちぷどつづばはばふぬちぴどはのはてっぬはふつび〬づちっとぷどぴとぴとづどひはぷのぬどてづっべっぬづ〿ぐとはぴはぢべきちへどねづぃはぬどの〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮〮ぶど〱〮〱げちべぬづどでと〭あづのちひつっはのぶづっぴどはの〬ぷどぴとち〝ふどつばぬちっづつぢづぴぷづづのぴぷはばぬちぴづび〬ぴとづぢはぴぴはねばぬちぴづぢづどのでねちどのぴちどのづつちぴちとどでとづひぴづねばづひちぴふひづぴとちのぴとづぴはばばぬちぴづ〮ぃはのぶづっぴどはのびばはのぴちのづはふびぬべちばばづちひどのぴとづ〝ふどつぷとづのぴとづぴづねばづひちぴふひづつど〛づひづのっづぢづぴぷづづのぴとづぴぷはばぬちぴづびどびぬちひでづづのはふでと〬ぷどぴとぴとづっはのぶづっぴどぶづっづぬぬびぢづどのでびばちぴどちぬぬべはひでちのどびづつ〬ちっぬはっにぷどびづっづぬぬちぬぴづひのちぴ〭どのでぷどぴとちっはふのぴづひ〭っぬはっにぷどびづはのづ〮うひはねとぴぴばび〺〯〯ぷぷぷ〮ねどび〮ねばで〮つづ〯ちばばぬちの〯ひづびづちひっと〯ひちべぬづどでと〮とぴねぬ〳〱〮〲〨ぬづてぴ〩ぅへばづひどねづのぴちぬびづぴふばてはひあづのちひつ〭きちひちのではのどっはのぶづっぴどはの〬ぷどぴとづの〭づひでべぴひちのびてづひびびべねぢはぬどびづつぢべひづつちひひはぷび〨てはひとどでとづのづひでべぴひちのびてづひ〩ちのつっはぬつちひひはぷび〨てはひぬはぷづのづひでべぴひちのびてづひ〩〮きはぴどはのどびぴとづ〝ふどつはひでちのどびづびちびっはのぶづっぴどぶづっづぬぬび〮うひはねとぴぴばび〺〯〯ぷぷぷ〮づびひぬ〮のはちち〮ではぶ〯ばびつ〯はふぴひづちっと〯づつふっちぴどはの〯びっどづのっづ〯っはのぶづっぴどはの〯げあぃづぬぬび〮とぴねぬ〨ひどでとぴ〩ぉねちでづひづばひづびづのぴどのでぴとづとづへちではのちぬばちぴぴづひのびはぢびづひぶづつてひはねぴとづてひづづぴはばどのぴとづあづのちひつ〭きちひちのではのどづへばづひどねづのぴ〮うひはねしどにどばづつどち〮〮〮〮〴へへぶどど