A method for estimating the distribution of species susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease in the Kruger National Park Region

(1)

t .-

n Afr

n

. ety

f

r

Vetennory Epiderniology

or d P'eventive Medicine

7""

Annuel

Conference, Cape Town

22 - 24 August

2fX)7

(2)

... M r.1'I100 .'011. l':STIMATING l'Il r. 0lSl'II.1 Ul!TION 01' SI'r.CIE.S SUSCEPrlBU: 1'0 FOO1CANU-MOUTIlI>ISEASI( IN 1111':

ICRUGF.R I\ATIUNAL PARK 1l.r.<;ION

O.P,Rnohmbhall. O. fosgalC', R.

Gummow',

M. P.

w.rd',

V.

\lœloo"',

f. Jori',C.

Bu<te'. R. Stinivuan". L Il'&hfield'

SUMMARY

l~

cbJ\ribution

of"""""J>Iible'J'C'C1esIl...scd10mocIoItheopatialspread<Ji iDf<C1iouaditeaoo:a. 0..ob)eaI •.., .. 10cIe>-..,1op 2

indi."""l

tpo:W$llaIIIlal ... _

- b Afncan buft'Illo.,.,tbtxiÙcç:oUJe...-:p.ibk10 fOOl 1IIdiIc:a$e(1')40)

.. the Krqa NallOMl

Pwt-

Rqioa(KNPR)

oCm.

RepubliI:

oC

SoWAfrieo(RSA)

--..ctelR4r ,- .... " " " - - ' 1oIDd .... dIIa. Tboc KI\PR_'-15 !lM:

Kncer

Naliooal

Port,Lionpopo .,.,toi"""",. . . .pI'O''izI<:a. We

"IlPbed

~noappi"l

".-:1'"""

10~

.n...

P"P"~<:<:nlUSdou. 10

a

liootfeKlIlWœus.q;aacilbrydIIa.

... tIo:a sNdy,aocillatydatalIS<d 10<Iefiœspeciadisuiburionsooclu<led aIOCkql3Ieor

canyiDa"...city .,., ludsuilabilil)'parameIers. A~alinf<lm*ioasystan

(mS) wu lIOed 10 identîfy ruilable ""'" - '

""Jtialiœ

~ (.-,yc;oordi...l<S)

lQr

eldI "PfC1tS.

~fi<: anunaI """"" were modc:lkd U$UIlI; a Pol...",

distn...tioo. Tboc "",,11"'1animalCOWlldata .... mappcdond ..,II bcUKd 10 model

FMI>aprelld ..ith,n IllelOIPll...

INTKOOUCTION

In("",,,"i,,,, concemi"llthe 1""",",,0fl" di"nbu,ion of ,_elllible

,poçin

i."",,-asary li>modollllc ']141i.a1 ,preadofinfccti,,,,. d' ..aseo, The K~N.ti",,",1 Park Ilegioo (I(},'PR)isvitolfo' 'W'>'<:iliaroceofinfecti"", di...' bec.usethe ool1linoous int.rnetioo be\wccn hun,,". wilrlHf.andlive,toc'efO.te. p<>tential fo' lhei,UllTlOmi..ion. Foc,he

pwp<....of thi ••tudy lh. K."IPR i< dcfmcd to include the KruKe' N"tiunai P.r\; (KNP),

Limpopo andMpum.long.pro"iace'inthoe ROf!'Jblic of South Mtiea (MS"') os sho... 'Ilqwtmetll ofVetennary Integra',,,,, Di=;ences, To","'kM Uni ...it~. College

S~"'. T~x... 77&4J. USA.

'EpidcmÎ(llogy

Di,·'.iOd.

Oqlarunt:n.or

l'md"""""

AnimalStU<Üo:S.On<k:nnq'''''rt

FaœltyQiVdCrinarySci<:noe.Uni""""ty ofl're~a.South Mriel.

"Exotic

DUate/ol);yWon.Ond=lcpoortVelcrinary lrOO,ute.

0ndeNep00n.

South

Mrioca.

'IkpoI1mtDl ofTrQflicaIVdCrinm)'Di...,FacullyniVelcrinaryScÎcll<:eS,

Uoi'-a'-sityofPretoria,Suuth Mrica

~PREpodcmioIoay.BIOS Deporonent.Ce=o:decoop6.oon~. .

_,,"",IleIIp'OIIOlIlique)lOlO'ledtvd"""':II><1lI,Frmœ.

~ofForel.t

Sc>a><c:s.

Tuas A&cM

u.r...

y.CoIIqe SUliort, ToUl.

77SU,USA

(3)

Study site showing

the Kruger National Park Interface

0(

South AfTica

"

.

,

oc

• "

• ,

,,

• ,

< <

t

• _ _ _ =

_ _

....,M.

.

,...

"..

'..

".

niE KNPI _"'~I/O'_

....

~~

...

~ fi ...,.,. < " b. . . . .

,.

~.'" ~-

..""

c:l "'...

"~I....,

'.,n _"""

....,...

=

,;c~n... '." ,.,."",.... '" '''''''".

~"""""'''"'===---_'::=''-

_{Figure 1:}_·n,e_Kruger_i\"ntional_{P.... Region}_{sbo...i"g Ille Kruger}_~.lioo.1

==--

_Park.

Limpopo

and

Mplmu.lango Provin<:d ofR'>A inchldcd inthis"ooy,

illli~u«:1. The IU\'Pi$"'parwœ/romlhel'fO"incesby.fcl'lCe on

ili ...

lembounduy ...bicllis

approximal<:ly

400 km in

Icngth.

One of lh. infccliwl diJeucs ofgrealesl coot:emiD lbe Kl'PR isfOOl--.l-tnooIlldisetie(l'MD) ...·hichi•• hiply conlagiooo,

bulruely f'lal vi ....1dise.ealfeaingcJovenhoofedwikll,f.anddomco1oclivntoc1.

An...or wildlifc: IIp<:Ciain A/rica have ...dlOWll 10bec 1lIfec1ed by l'MD

oudl

aille

A&ic:an bW&Io(S);"""'III

n#rpnd

(.4..",...erw -'<aIf'W)

,n!he

Kl'P.

and ..~lA1 (~_ ...)ia1Ioe~. Iafme<!AfriranbuffioIo "'"

_dond •...,..orfMDfOf ""'"Jlliblc 1r.-.x:I:

cka

10IlleK:"P andompalaIDtlIe

KNP iq)lolaean 811 u ~fOfIbo

-..mission

eff\tO VI....fianbufJùo

(4)

lOaUle ,,'hich cooldIledue LO lbeir ability LOjwnp pefimckr fenco. l'hylogeoetie

....Jyte5of~sin aule ...impa1a~b)r SAT 1 s1ninsbe<weal 1971-1931

il "'"RSAmclicaltdthal...".J

of"'"

outbral:. bad

'fft&d

from ;mp.lILOaille. 111

oddilioon.

q>i<IemioIocicainvaliplioasinlothe~iaankill:MIOO.<:aUICdb)r SAT 1 Md IK SAT 2 ...in2001 W<n'lrKCld lNd::10

""If.

lbIIoKaped from

K..'"

The

.,....~_JIIllIIIDllâ<&ots,.spca;ib&e fordiscue...-~ '"

,1; 'ic . . ._kfCIDlIIIIunclea.

One

of "'"

limitai... 0(modeIliaI Ole ~blihoa

of

~iblc

speaes

on a

... ÎSthal1he

aYaJiable

~

d:na

Il lyp;eally ..."U"'P'"~L III "'" RSA

Ibil is ...,Iable in tbc:

fonn

ofd,orcpletb lœp5al

<Dstnct

belspel"l'fO'Yinee. Seme or !he limilllioDs

of

me,e """'"

irH:lode """"""illi lIH:

..mati...

oflcal domestie

caille di.!,ibulioons, rq>rtiCnliogInifi<;,,1~ihO'"io do<r>e!liccauletoo.Inl'Il dWricl bouodaricl'OO$UllS",linll IMIcaltlcIII"Jistributtd lIt'In<>gcoously io lhodiStriclc~cn

tiIougl1l1Otne

lire.,

h,we 00li.c'tock.

Thoobj«;li~e"fthi',tudy iste""'e1ol>

melhods

10 estim.letheJi",ibuli"" ofFMD

...soopliblespecics(dameslie caille ondAfricanbutTalo) in the K."PR and further use

thisdata 10 modo:l!hespreodof FMI)in Ibe KNPItoftheRSA.

MATElUALS A:'IID MimiOns

Tkdo6)iOOlicmcIllod __ modilicd(S. Rollo. L ll~ " M.Vo-ard,

llIIpIl>-hsW )

br

~y

.tloaai,.

poiDlI

on

kleo:ted _ _foI~

br

d

alo, '•

. . . a PoiaoadutribIIllon.s.odvaryincS\OCki...mIeS..

Rl'IJ'OSI"dhe A.ciI• .,· Dai.

ThcdIstribution OflllioulJPCCiCll<:llIlbcappro.IJ....lcd"""8'o'ttlOf~dasyrnel.

rie

mepping

mcù>od!I defined sa \ISing additional .,r"",,llioo 10di5a~lI"t< c...

rtSol",ion population ,"",la to fi..., m.olution. This morhot! "'... moJifieJ

br

ineillding

• reiu"ndistributi"" (5. Roll". l~ HighfielJ& M. Wlrd,\lIlpuhlisJ>«i d~I~). The.d· ditinlllll infortllation t>C«83IIryLudi<llggreg.t<

e,,,",,,,

da..was stocklng ..10 (Ii_tock)

forcort'InIen:ill

and

curnmunaltàrmer.;lcuryiOS capacity(wildli!'e). rivern<.1workand

"'iota1ion I.yen. 1'11" .toekilli"'1<: isddined .. lIIe ntunb<:r ofani...u per ...

=

kilomoll'e.s.od wualc:uialedWli"ll2004 cemuad.s.ilt...,...:1l'romNl.Iionai """"'nary

S«vJœsONS). Con1men:ÎlII

farmas

dur",.fToonOOfI1mUDIIlurnen_ l h e yblve

ddiaaIbaomdlMItI)&IftJ

Il>rir

J.nd..

excl....ve

"&b1J

f..lbe~ and produœ

oompellti...,1yf..~marl<...Ulth,,:,RSA..

On

Ille Olha""-1,1DOfl _ _-1

&m.-erl

on:

prilnarily pais' ....,

ran.en,

hl...,

...,fiaed

""'-'aria Md ...",..a11 .""

o p t l I _ri&fIl$10

dcf""'"

cran. . ,..."The

'P'bal ....

t«JOucial fann~

c:om--tDIIRIII Iantkmdri."Cfac:lWort I"vf1 i"'l"'P' ... MpuroaWlpP'O"_ ÎIl2000 .."",

.s.tqUimll'rom1he::-NS. The wildIJf<: otDPIS wu.s.cqWred froaISoutbAfric.s.nr.;mo-I

Parb

(SA~ARK~1.This DOUIisttd ofthe2001 ArnaJl bulhlo mega herl>ivurecm5lIi

dalI forIlle Ullire "-NP.

Tho 2004SootlIAmeanN.ti...JlIiodivo,.,ily InltituLe (SA.'\lBl)~t;.,nInopfill" KSA.5wa;,;la~d ondLeS<>loo wallacquired

t'rom

the DepartmemofEn~i'''''lT'K:nlal

(5)

r~if"land li>uri..n (DF.AT), nu. veget.tion ""'P

CI"";,l,

of 441 vegetation types which

on:clnssitled into 9

""'iot

biOlT>el! ",p.eoentill8 largo J>lItural Il'''"1 ddined byvegetal;""

l)'pC and c1imale, The 9 biomc:o.,.., namcd .. follO\Ol'l Albany thicktl,~rt. foml~

P"'",Iand. NIII\I-Karoo. uv """,ulenlKMooand welWlds. Ail

Geogœphi<;

lnfor.

nwiooSYllel1ll (GIS)data ",-';1abIeal _ foies ""th l """le.,f I;SOOOO.

rîpr&!:C ,. 'lIId_po

'"'l-diltF-orl~""'"

_caRi< ...

1

~_.-or"'RSA

r;-

Zll(N.--.

-

-'-'''''

,...,lor"-_

ComrnrooI _ _2_ ~ 48

Ca,.,_ ...

_8

Ca'....

'CioiIar_.12 ,~

(6)

Alli"" llIUl for m'''''llinK thedata were <!one iftArtOIS. The 1.nd pa=l, f"r

Limpopo .nd Mpumal.ngapro"iflCt"jW«'eproj«ledthe: .."'"Oi !he""K<:tIli<>n laye....

Jhen,

w=

28.183

form paro:l.in Limpopo province. l'rom lhesoe. 376paroeIs",'licil

Md li(> form lWllol:ll

w.:r"

<:xcludcd. Sornecommere",1

I.aod

paro:l boultdari.. w= O'IaiapPlnl "';lh cornmW>lll Iaodsand "'«'eenl'Cd from theCOIlUIItIt\I,I IlUIds. This n\IUll«l inlW'() ttpameform opcciflc l"ycrI: one f<lJ OOIlIIllIerciai parœlsand ano1her JUrcu.wultlod1...,.J",..,,~, ~o<topfM"

"ffi&...-e

2"""1X"..., _1.~,.,... ;"

~1S. TheIlOClma illies f<lJ".,"'~'cialand communal lancII ulra<:1t<l from III..

I"'C""Illbove

were

CIlculaledinExcellJOin&2O(M«mvIdola.

The2001

mep

~fik

fu<

Ar;;.,.,

""lfalo ....

~10Ullt{Zone36

SouIh(WGS(loi). Thedala~ofld ""/flic> (J1"1k bulband ho:nkofbulls)

.., bulfaloIoml(1Olal

wtlictI

i..I·...calva) onIallWdelIId

IooI&>lUde

JIO"'l ...

'm.

iIo

u..

IL'lP.

"""

Thecc .,

..

orJ

pNnls ...,~willothe

.(Cf...

Ill"'" iJIArdJIS.

b1lef--um

.-Irain

1

poIl'JP1 ...~""1dduy1llld.,..

bd_ ...

the ....

I.'..

'cial

pualoand vqctaIionlaya:. The.7dilreraMvqetaltorl lypc& irILunpapo pm>1Ilœ

""=

_lw.lfied

ialo.

moj<>rbiomes (savannah.~lùrcsts ...wetIando)

III-in&

tI>t

Soolt/I

Am,""J\atiolrWRi.odivcnily IIlSlJlllle d".ifialt1onocheme The ""'""

ofcach or

m-

bio>mes

whlCh Jllle1XaCd wilb eommercial

pore.,ls ..

-=

caIculmcd-GeogJapNc l«alionl...,

rudomly Ideded

"inlI

howlh 1001. Ul""'III1 iDArcGIS.

Thest:point...ete

"",poned

10 SPSSwh..., lit<PO;S$OIldiltribution used 10 model

"""DIIofallieIl each locltion. Themtan (or 11I0Poi..,..d'IUibulum d<oIermined

",jlllilock;"."'le,,,funllll;on calcu1aled for rommen:iallnde<.>mm Iarld., (~landlhave a highbiodiv...ilyandÎlIimporta",for doiry. becflJ'ld'"001

prodoo-tion in SouthMrica l>et>cc ".., "''''''''''lhalil hM a hig:l>er ltocking I<Ito II1oo ..vannah

biomes, The: 01:>0... pro<cdure ",a, ,.,..ate<! for 00II\tn\IM1 form l'"l'<:cl •. Thc coocep-lu.1and <lataprœclS;ngllow di.gram i.shownfi~"fC2.

Theproced"", WU

baocd

on the: a..u"'ptio"tbat thcrc ",etc 00 callio distrib<>tod io

fore't. and",o<land.b«au"" lheyote",,""itobio biomol, Gnl$slands WO'e ool\8idercd the:ft'lOIl.,,;,.blc bio",o for gra:ting and !he .lockiD&roi.."'ilIidoublcd ro' lhi. bi"me. 1\ >VIS.1.... OlS<>med tlla"h..Poi...di5lril>olion WIS~(o \0tlcscribelhe di-miootion or coule IIItheLimpopo p<1Jvinec.

[n lit< ..inter - . . . (April 10 Septomber) tho i\friCl/1""irai..lui""

boen

,Jwwn \0

lI<)lau fItnlter tlwI 1 l<îlometre from _ ... """"""'. Th", infnrmation ... used \0

crealeJl:lIl5iII1IJllIlpIf<lJ bull buffioloandbulraloItcnit,~,"inlOf(April'"Seplember)

and ...",....(0eL<>ber '"Moreil). Thebull buJralo ... ""lralobmIs '"...,overlappt:d

",th

the ri ...

nctwort.

fortI>t ICNPR. lbctfim"""fmm each pnim '" "'" nverl ... e.aJo:,ulol«lbyjoI~"'CtI>t buffilIodao fi....",lh!he apIliollllribul..oftl>t river. The tDI1imumdisW>cefmm

d>t

boJ&Io '"tI>t nver ~

illllble

1 _ 1UI:d.0"""p

11.

"'*'

fur ~... dala10 Ihc.rivu "l"on i. tI>t IO'lP. The

=-pllUIlS... 11':~ IOriv~uAnguri 1OOhcxleMiool inArt<J1S. A"""PlhrcsboId

fIL10and

g

kilonotlns . . . """"furbon""lrak>...Jbul&loben!reIpOCIil'dy.

(7)

Tallit 1:Descripti""awUt"'" fo, tl>e di!U.nCC bclwccn bYlfalo locatiunoono.Ithe e[,os.. elt

ri"",

for bull buffalo&J>dhm:IsofbYffalo.

PISTA

'icr.

.a-..nl

JUVl':It(~_)

-

~

---.M_ ...

Mu ... BULL BUFr"l.Q

on

'"

.m

10.00

lnth.

!\fric""

bYrraJo di.t,ibulionmlIJl61hea$$Umpli~ ....lhatllle~iano kDOWD millJ"tory pattern data0'p<>pulation growtb pIllicmmcwJcl ".ailabl.fl)tM,kanbuffalo,

Arne,," bulfalo ,hifu; ~'"",,,,anal whe« in the wintel" the}' do nut 110 funllet Iha.

1 kilomelJ'e fmm w~l~ ~.ond

the

impactof\hetmn>fronti., OOl\Jel"iaUOn "","'

and

,..,...ji.<tributionofwildlife ,peei'" i.noo:

_"t""

forin the

model.

l'Rlli.lMIKAItYRESULTS AND DlseL"SSIOS

1110aRaof o.û J*Uk ... 1JS91.56oquuekiJcIIlctraIondUcI00906

. .tt"(2OO'l<:aIMIS)I'Y wrl"noteof~ty6...kpa""""'~

l'he...,.

of . . . - -....11Inds was 27011.70,..., kilornctttsand

hrod

637 1&2canl<

(~...) liY" • 11OOkult; ..., of ''l'I'''''''imaœly 24 ..niepa" . . . . ,tiJ<lmow.

lllcIlOCkiDg

rare

for llwannah WU apprw"",alOd 10 6 for toflUI""tiaJ J*Ull and 2A

forcornmunallanlk We a.umod lha! W-1andI...,.,ldMy. doubN lM 6IOClriT1ll m.

ofIInnnah.

The

mapt "'" no!

presenred

Ilote

\>cca.... lboy may affi:r;l ,obsequon!

publication in J'O"rrewicw j<>Umal•. Tbo~uhinllm,1" can be llSOd tu idonlify S.ographie

l""'.tio", w;th hillhe't O<,unta fOT c.nle and Africiln b\,lfah Th;, i, imponant becau", locat;oo, w;th high counts of t;vc<toà may baye hillh", c<:<lItornic loslfl'S during l'MD ""lbn:.1o. Thel'ClWlting""'l>l' con allO be ullC<l

in

~

..

ion modell 10 .va!ual. "l'adal and temporal •••"", oftl>e oolbrul<.

TIIia 'OIt could .... Ile1'0Hibic

wilhouI-"p·..,

{j".,

D<.lhIcmo'.

Dr.

de

KIerk.

Or

Ik ~ Md

o..

ny-. ..

,t11 tIIo l''abonol

'Iat,;,_y Sc...

ica~);

ln!. Smllh",iIh

SoudI

Afncal NatiooaI l'artlt andIk Deœ Man."'\III~

of ""...""""""tal Affill.1'Iand Towism{IlF...

n

for prowidmll wllh n:In:lIpCll:li""GIS

doll and expert

opuuon

wben

ncedo:d.

Thls...,n. wu

""flPO'I<ld

by the McMillian

(8)

REI'l]I.I!I'\CES

lIMIœ,A_D~Boohoff,C"~ K... D_F..Iknp.R.O.&:~G_R.(2000)Nalun]

~ off _ ~dis.eax

vu.

bot....,.,.Africad buffllo (~

cwfIer)

ud;~ (~~~)in1llc

KnIacr

KWcnaI r.t,

SoolIh

Afiica.

f,,,,

"Jiwfrct.-124'S91_S9&-III 1 ...."'P G., Gœmp:o, I.E..

a ...

1looyen."1. 11-') Vq:ewiooIoIs-llAlii<a.

Lc&ochoand Swaziland. la A rompaaim III the VqeIatiœ Map of

Sou<h

Arrira,

L-.hoand S~Iand.O""';e Law.A.•

RGbelo.

O .•cds. (Pn:t<lna. O.... UüUll of

En.,,,,,,mental AirainandTounsm).

Ilnu:kncr,O.K.. \100]00, W., Ou PIcss;';' DJ., Kloa:k. P.E.., COllooway. 1... FJuon. M_D.•

W"""..-, D.fI.. Dick~.CJ,. SchrcudCl". fJ" Marai.,T. &: M"""jonc, M.1l. (2002) FOOt and mouth di~.~: the .~r<ricn"" of SOIah Afri~•. Roy..'><;/, TItC/t, 21: 751· 764.

Do<lillll. D. (1993) Mapdd;i1l" fOll"

«!IW'

mllplling, Tm.Cartograpjric J""nwl 167·

183-Eiche,. C.L & Omo.". C.A. (2001) Duymetne rnapping

and

areaI

inlCfJlOLation;

ImplelllCllla1Îonande..h_lioa. Car~ortdGevgraphkJ'lfor-tioro ScWnœ

28: IlS-138.

BRI (2OM)Ar<:GlS

EsleI, R. (1991)TbtbdIa.iofpüdc"'Aman 1O_••aIr

iocludioa

Iloofod

Il• • • • •

c:am...

priInolœ.l. ...I).ofc.lif...

PIao-.

8cdeley.

Ibtpuva, S_K., Foq:in, CM.•

ADdor-.

E.c..

l4sIoo.AD..~O.IL Fern..

N.P. k "-Ics,

'u.

(2OlW)Aninvcstiption inlotht:so=eand

fJI'I*l

offooI

and

_ I I<fucNc vinJs froma wiMIlle """""'"llIlC)I inZimbabwe Rtl< SeL Tre/t. 23:

183-790_

Kecl, D.I'., H"'>1er, P., 8e"lli•. R.G., BalI"', A. It.~, G,R, (1996)The- 1992 fOOl'ond'm<>U!h diw:os.:cpi..."tic in the KN~cr Naüooall'atk.J, S.,if, rel.

".,-,,,c.

61:

~J·B7.

Mue;,,". L. &- Rutbo<fCln. M. (2004) V'S'lntioll mop of &:..LobAfrie&. Lesotho Ind Swaziland: .Mpc(ilesofbasic

mappin&

unia

(Cape

Town, Sout"Afric., Nolional

Botanicllllnolitult).

Polmer, T. It. AImlie, A (2002)Counlty l'Wure1Fongc: R"*""t:e l'ro/ila .S<lulh

Afria. InCountry PUIIIrl:1F. . . . RCII(lIIrœ f'rotil.. (l'AU t:rop ...Oraoislm<l

Smi<c

(AOPC).

R... M.•Rtyers.O.,"-,Z-.Dt$mtt,p~Onver.A.•

Mml:-.

IL.F.. . .B....

Coor.ÜII&

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