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Effects of regulation and urbanization on historical flood trends in the United States

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HAL Id: hal-02608474

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608474

Submitted on 16 May 2020

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Effects of regulation and urbanization on historical flood trends in the United States

G.A. Hodgkins, R.W. Dudley, S.A. Archfield, Benjamin Renard

To cite this version:

G.A. Hodgkins, R.W. Dudley, S.A. Archfield, Benjamin Renard. Effects of regulation and urbanization

on historical flood trends in the United States. AGU Fall Meeting, Dec 2018, Washington DC, United

States. pp.1, 2018. �hal-02608474�

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H51L-1449: Effects of regulation and urbanization on historical flood trends in the United States

Friday, 14 December 2018 08:00 - 12:20

Walter E Washington Convention Center - Hall A-C (Poster Hall)

Many studies have analyzed historical trends in annual peak flows in the United States because of the importance of flooding to bridges and other structures, and the concern that human actions may increase flooding. To help attribute causes of historical peak-flow changes, it is important to separate basins by

characteristics that have different effects on peak flows, however, limited work has been published in this area.

We analyzed historical trends by basin type: minimally altered basins, regulated basins (substantial reservoir storage but low urbanization), and urbanized basins (with low reservoir storage). We computed trend significance with methods that consider the possibility of short- and long-term persistence in the time-series data. Although many peak-flow magnitude trends were found in the last century across the conterminous United States, trend magnitude and direction vary by region and basin type. There was a low percentage of significant increases and decreases for minimally altered basins (2-14%, depending on time period and assuming time- series independence) while regulated basins had many significant decreases (24-56%) and the limited number of urbanized basins with long-term records had many significant increases (28-38%). Parts of the Northeast

quadrant of the U.S. had high densities of basins with large (>50%) increases, including some urbanized basins.

Parts of the Southwest quadrant had high densities of basins with large decreases, including many regulated basins. It is important to consider basin-specific features such as historical reservoir additions and urbanization when computing future design floods for bridges and other hydraulic infrastructure.

Authors

Glenn A Hodgkins Robert W Dudley

Stacey A Archfield Benjamin Renard US Geological Survey

US Geological Survey

US Geological Survey

Irstea

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