HAL Id: tel-00842756
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00842756
Submitted on 9 Jul 2013
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Anass Bouchiba
To cite this version:
Anass Bouchiba. EVALUATION DE DYSFONCTIONNEMENT D’UN SYSTEME PAR AP- PROCHE BAYESIENNE : CAS DU SYSTEME FERROVIAIRE. Sciences de l’ingénieur [physics].
Université d’Angers, 2013. Français. �tel-00842756�
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=7AA8!C1 F9EC1 AC9CF1 C1 CC1 EFCBBE"E+BC1 1 F9C1 BE$E1 C1 89ABCDC1 A1 B1 8FFE81 71 98BC1 C1 C1 F9C41 7CFFC1 8AFE81 C1 98BEFE81 AC9CF1 7EEC1 C1 8EC1 1 1 F9C1 89ABCDC?1 1 B78+KCFE$17CFCACC1C1FE81$FC11C1F9C411
B%8E"JJC1$EEF1C19!C1C198BEFE81C1C$1E&CD?1!1FF1 A8EFE81 1 1 $CFECB11 .AC?1 NC9A?1 )89C?1 CF1 9F1 C1 $EBEF1 8C1 A81 BC1 F9C1 "B8+B41 EE?1 A81 98BEC1 A8"CE&C9CF1 1 F9C?1 BC1 98BEFC1ACF18EC1BC1E&CD1E&F11F9CI1
1 AE$1CF1EB1CF1C8E+BC1A1C1$8FEC1&C1B7C&E8C9CF?1 1 FE$?1EB1CF1B81FE1A1C1CFC1CF18FEC?1
1 FE$1CF1"B11CBFE81C1+8B"C2?1
1 7E$89C?1B7E$89FE81$EF1EFC1>1C1+8BC1C1F8FE8?1 1 EC1C181FE&EF?1
1 1C1998EC1C1E$89FE8?1
1 888C1C1FE&EF17E$89FE8?1C1EE81CF178AFE8?1 1 A+BC17E9"EC1CF17F818"EC?1
1 A+BC1C17F8<$EBEC1CF181C17AFC1198BEFE81C1B18ECC241
61
=7AA8!C1 F9EC1 1 BC1 89EC1 C1 A8C1 EFECB1 CF1 8"EFE8CB?1FEBEC11C19F!88B8"EC1E1CF1B73"ECEC1'F9C411
7CFFC19!C1CF19EC1C1&F1C1)C1A1B7 )3'1B $E6C11 8EFE81 )HEC1 73"ECEC1 'F9C21 CF?1 C1 9EC1 EFCFE8BC1 A1 B73O75'.1 13FCFE8B178EB181'FC91."ECCE"241
=7AA8!C1 F9EC1 CF1 1 A8C1 8BB+8FE$1 CF1 9BFEEEABEEC1 C1 8BFE81 C1 A8+B9C41 3B1 AC1 C1 89AFC1 F81 BC1 89EC1 CF1 EEABEC1 E9ABE1 1BC1BC1C1&EC11F9C189ABCDC?1C1B18CAFE81>1B19EC1C1CDAB8EFFE81CF11 9FBC9CF?1 C1 8EF1 BC1 E$$CF1 +C8E?1 A81 &CB8AAC1 C1 8BFE81 8AFE9EC1 >1 B1 $8E1 889EC?1 AC$89FC1 CF1 FE$EF1 F81 BC1 A8EF1 C1 &C1 C1 E$$CFC1AFEC1ACFC41
B9BEC1 B7$2C1 8F1 +81 FC1 ACF1 FEF1 B1 89ABCDEF1 C1 F9C1!899C<9!EC1+11C1FC!EC17F89FEFE81I11
64 BC1ACF1$8FE8CB?11 54 BC1ACF189A8FC9CFD?11 4 BC1ACF1FFCB?1
4 BC1ACF1FC!8B8"EC41
=C1 8EC1 BEC1 1 9&E1 $8FE8C9CF1 71 F9C1 CEFCF1 7AFC1 "BC9CF1 AEC1 C1 89AFC1 1 BC1 FE&EF1 C1 B7E"ECEC1 F9C41 #1 $EF1 C1
$EBBC1 A8&F1 AA@FC1 1 1 F9C?1 C1 89A8FC9CF1 E9A&EE+BC1 AC&CF19C"C1CF1$$CFC1BC1AC$89C1CF1B1EF1 1 F9C?1C1 AC8C1CF1 C1B7C&E8C9CF1C1EFCFE81&C1BC1F9C41
#1 BC1 +F1 C1 A&8E?1 &BC1 CF1 9@FEC1 C1 89A8FC9CF?1 B7E"ECEC1 F9C17AAEC11BC1EEABEC1C1(CF1C1$8FE8C9CF1CF19@FEC1C1EC41
A 87 7389F!9689
A /E 556599
=1AC$89C1CF1$EEC1E&F1E$$CF1FC1&C1C1FEFEC1 E$$CFC?1 CBBC1 CF1 8EC1 899C1 FF1 C1 8FE81 89ABCDC1 E1 BE$EC1 CF-81 FE$EC1 BC1 BFF1 C1 B7C""C9CF1 1 F9C41 7C1 FEFEC1 8F1 8FEFC1 >1
61
AFE1 C1 BFF1 ECFC9CF1 A8EF1 CF1 C1 B1 9EC1 &C1 BCBBC1 C1 BFF1 8F1 F18+FC?1CBBC1ACF1 C&AFE1ABEC1$89C1 CF18CC1E$$CF1 FEF1 CACFFE$1 1 F9C?1 8F1 B7C$$EEF?1 B7C$$EECC1 CF1 B7C$$CFE&EF?1 8FEFCF1 F8E1 AEEAD1 EFC17&BFE81B.F66C41
1234456765891 E"C1 BC1 $EF1 C1 B7C""C9CF1 1 F9C1 AC9CF1 7FFCEC1 BC1 BFF1A&41=C19CC1FE$ECF1BC1AA8F1CFC1BC1BFF1$8E1CF1BC18+KCFE$1 E"41=7C$$EEF1CF18ECFC1&C1B1BEF1C1B1ACFFE81$8EC41
123445653A631K8FC1B18FE81C18(F11C$$8F?1FC9A1CF421CE1A81FFCEC1C1 BFF41 =C1 9CC1 FE$ECF1 BC1 AA8F1 CFC1 BC1 BFF1 $8E1 CF1 BC1 98C1 C""41
123443685B5891E"C1BC1C"17FFCEFC1C18+KCFE$1$ED1>198EC18(F?1F8F1 C19BE8F1B1FE$FE81CF1B198FE&FE81C19C9+C1C1B78"EFE841=C18CAF1 7C$$CFE&EF1CF1$8FC9CF1BE1>1B1FE$FE81&E<><&E1C1BFF18+FC41
A 08789869E$3#365999
=7BC1F9EC1A8A8C1198BC17&BFE81C1B1AC$89C1E1 198BC1C1AEB8F"C1+11B1899C1A1C1BC&EC17FE81&C1C18E"C1 818+KCFE$1B.F66C49
1 1 1
)E"4151%CC1CF1AEB8F"C1C1B1AC$89C1 1
3B1CDEFC1ABEC1FAC17&BFE81C1B1AC$89C1B.F66CI1
1 CB7DE785FA 7 F835F51I1 CBBC1 AA8C1 C1 BC1 F9C1 EF1 K>1 F1 8H?1 B78+KCFE$1 FF1 C1 BC1 AEB8FC1 A1 B1 AC$89C1 C1 89AF1 B1 9CC1
&C1 B78+KCFE$1 $EE41 =1 89AE81 AC9CF1 C1 $EE1 BC1 FE81 >1 CFCACC11BC1F9C41
Système Contraintes
Pilote
Mesures
Résultats Commande
Consignes
6*1
1 CB7DE785FA 7 5F51I1 CBBC1 1 A81 8+KCFE$1 C1 8C&8E1 BC1 F9C?1 AE1 C1 A&8E1 81 89A8FC9CF?1 C1 FEBEF1 8&CF1 C1 8FEB1 C1 E9BFE81 A81BC1B1AC$89C41
=1 9CC1 C1 B1 AC$89C1 CEFC1 B1 9EC1 C1 ABC1 7EEFC1 8&C+BC9CF1BCFE841
A 5A56783E9CF1 C1 8C1 FEFFE&C1 E1 AC9CF1 C1 FEC1 C1 EFFE81&8BFE&C?1C1FE8181BC18CC17C1FE8?1C1$H81>1BC1&BC1CF1
>189AC1BC1FF1>1E$$CFC1FC1BO8C,C41
A 87D37E 3 F $EEF1 B7CC9+BC1 C1 EEFC?1 CCE"1 AE8EC9CF1 CF1 CFE1 1 E&E1 C1 $8FE8C9CF1 71 F9C?1 C1 B7FF1 7&C9CF171A8"99C1817C1A8BEFEC1CF1>1B7&BFE81C1BC1C$$EEF41
A" B39D786E9F89 658869F39#!E$3#3659F89#39 487 7389F9689
=1 89ABCDEF1 8EFC1 C1 F9C1 EFECB?1B1 FE81 C1 BC1 8(F1 C18CAFE81CF1PCDAB8EFFE81EE1C1BC1FEBEFE81C1AB1C1AB1E9A8FFC11 B1 &EC1 8FEECC1 $8F?1 C1 B1 '(CF1 C1 )8FE8C9CF1 1')2?1 1 89EC1 E8F8+BC11BC1&CB8AAC9CF1C1F8F1F9C1EFECB41
=1'(CF1C1)8FE8C9CF11')21CF1+C11I1
1 C19F!8C1CF1C18FEB1C&F1>1FEC1CF1>19@FEC1BC1C$$CF1 C1B?1C1AC1CF1C1CC?1
1 B1 FE$EFE81 C1 FEFEC1 C1 89A8F1 CF1 C1 F9C1 A81 CDAE9C1 B1 8$89EF1 1 BC1 FC9A1 C1 BC1 89A8FC9CF1 CF1 C1BC1FE841
A" /E 55659F89#39CD786E9F89658869
=1 $EEFE81 C1 B1 '(CF1 C1 )8FE8C9CF1 CF1 8EC1 899C1 FF1 B1 8K"E81C1C1FC1$EEFE81BEBBC11B%8F6C1B=AJ2C1B/8J2C1I1
1 B1$E+EBEF?1B1EA8E+EBEF?1B19EFC+EBEF1CF1B1EF?1 1 B1ECC1C1$EBBC?1
621
1 B18$EC1KFE$EC11BC1C&EC1BE&?1 1 BC19EFEC1C1B1BEF11BC1FC9A41
=1 '(CF1 C1 )8FE8C9CF1 C1 C1 EF1 A1 EC9CF1 >1 C1 C1 C1 AC$89C1C1)E+EBEF?1%EFC+EBEF?1#EA8E+EBEF1CF1'EF1C1BP81CF8&C11 BP89C1)%#'?19E1CBBC1C18FEF1>1F&C1F8FC1C1FEFEC41
=1 $EEFE81 D1'ECC1 C1 $EBBC1E1 AA8C1 B1 8EC?1 BP&BFE8?1 B1 A&EE8?1 B1 9CC1 CF1 B1 9@FEC1 C1 $EBBC41 =1 (CF1 C1
$8FE8C9CF1AA@F1EE1899C1BPAFEFC1PC1CFEF1>1FE$EC1C181ABEC1
$8FE81CEC11C18EFE818C41
=1 $EEFE81 D178$EC1 KFE$EC1 1 BC1 C&EC1 BE&1 E1 AC1 AEEABC9CF1C1B1ACCAFE81C1FEBEFC41=C1C&EC1BE&1A11F9C1CF1BC1 89A8FC9CF1 ACH1 A1 81 81 C1 FEBEFC?1 !F1 P1 FEBEFC1 CF1 E1 1 F9C11!9E181A!EC21E1EFC"EF1&C1F8F1B7CC9+BC41
=1 $EEFE81 D1%EFEC1 C1 B1 BEF1 1 BC1 FC9A1E1 AC1 C1 89AFC1 B1 8$89EF1D1CDE"CC1CDABEEFC18181CDABEEFC41
A" 143689F89#39CF9
=1 $E+EBEF?1 B1 9EFC+EBEF?1 B1 EA8E+EBEF?1 B1 EF1 CF1 B1 +EBEF1 8F1 BC1 A9FC1 $89CFD1 C1 B1 '(CF1 C1 )8FE8C9CF41 7CD<E1 AC9CFFCF1 C1
$EE1 BC1 8+KCFE$1 FFC1 71 F9C1 CF1 7&BC1 1 BEF1 C1 C&EC1 FFC1 C1
&C1C1E+BC1BC1A8EF1EFEC1>19BE8C1BEBBC41 A" 5315#56E9
=1 $E+EBEF1 CF1 BPAFEFC1 PC1 CFEF1 >1 89ABE1 BC1 $8FE81 CEC1 1 C18EFE818C1ACF1C1C18C41.BBC1CF1FEC1A1B1A8++EBEF1 01F21 C1 BPCFEF1 .1 89ABEC1 C1 $8FE8?1 1 BC1 8EFE81 8C1 ACF1 B7EFC&BBC1C1FC9A1B?FC?1!F1C1BPCFEF1.1PCF1A1C1AC1>1BPEFF141
1 1 01F21Q1/8+1R.181$EBBFC11BS1FCT1 A" 03568315#56E9
=19EFC+EBEF1CF1BPAFEFC17C1CFEF1>1AFC19EFCC181F+BEC11 1FF11BCCB1CBBC1ACF189ABE1C1$8FE81CEC?1B8C1B19EFCC1CF1
6,1
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$8FE8?1!F1C1B7CFEF1FEF1C1AC1>1B7EFF141
%11F21Q1/8+1R.1CF1A+BC11B?FCT1
A" /54515#56E9
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$8FE81CEC11BC18EFE818C1CF1>11EFF1841.BBC1CF1FEC1 A1 B1 A8++EBEF1 1F21 C1 B7CFEF1 .1 8EF1 C1 FF?1 >1 B7EFF1 F?1 789ABE1 BC1 $8FE81 CEC11C18EFE818C41
1 1 1 11F21Q1/8+1R.181$EBBFC1>1B7EFF1FT1
A"" CE756E9
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&C9CF1EFEC181FF8A!EC41
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A"% /7315#56E9
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A" 0E675)89F89#39CD786E9F89658869
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>1B1'(CF1C1)8FE8C9CFI1
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∞
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022391%C1NE9C1N810CAE21CF1B1C198CC1C1AFE81I1
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61 1
04291%C1GA1NE9C21CF1B1C198CC1C1$8FE8C9CF1A1AFE841 1
0/29 1%C1 #8U1 NE9C21 CF1 B1 C1 98CC1 PEEA8E+EBEF1 A1
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=1 $E"C1 1 E1 A1 EBBFC1 B1 9!C1 "BC1 7C1 FC1 C1 '(CF1 C1 )8FE8C9CF1B9866C413B17"EF171A8C1EFFE$189A8FF1F8K81AB181 98E1BC19A9C1E$$CFC1FAC1I1
641$EEFE81AEC11F9C1>1FEC?1 541$EEFE811+F1C1B7FC1>1BEC?1
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FEFFE&C181AC9CF1FEFFE&C41
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*41 =C1 BFF1 C1 CF1 BC1 C1 '(CF1 C1 )8FE8C9CF1 >1 B1 EFC1 C1 B1 EE81 &C1 BC1 AEBEFC1 C1 F!C1 CF1 EE811 +8FECF1 >1 C1 FE81 CF1 AE$EFE81 &EF1 >1 9@FEC1 BC1 $8FE8C9CF?1 A8"99C1 C1 FCF?1 A8BEFEC1 C19EFCC?1&BFE811EC1ECB?1CF41
)E"41 BC1C1'(CF1C1)8FE8C9CF1 1
