The population of France in 2002

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The population of France in 2002

Gilles Pison

To cite this version:

Gilles Pison. The population of France in 2002. Population et sociétés, INED, 2003, pp.1-4. �hal- 02533427�

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POPU TIO TI N

SOCI CIETIES

On 1st January 2003, the population of metropolitan France was estimated to be 59.6 million, plus a further 1.8 million living in the French overseas de- partments, bringing the total to 61.4 million [1]. The population in metropolitan France increased by nearly 290,000 people (+ 0.5%) in 2002. This was very similar to 2001, with a slight fall in the surplus of births over deaths (natural increase) due to slightly fewer births and slightly more deaths offset by a slight rise in the surplus of immigration over emigration (net migration) as estimated by Insee (table page 3).

Gender life expectancy gap still closing

There were an estimated 540,000 deaths in 2002, slightly more than in 2001 (+ 1.5%), producing a rise in the crude death rate from 9.0 to 9.1 deaths per 1,000 population (1). However, life expectancy at birth reached 75.6 years for males and 82.9 years for females, a slight improvement for males (75.5 in 2001) and unchanged from 2001 for females. In the past ten years, it has lengthened by 2.4 years for males and by 1.5 years for females. As male gains have outpaced female gains, the gender differential fell from 8.2 years in 1992 to 7.3 years in 2002.

Fertility stable but fewer births

The total fertility rate in 2002 remained unchanged from its 2000 and 2001 levels at 1.88 children per woman in metropolitan France. Total births, by contrast, slipped slightly from 775,000 in 2000 to 771,000 in 2001 and 763,000 in 2002 (figure 1a). Whether this slide continues will depend on the three predicating factors of total births: the potential parent population, their propensity to procreate, and age at childbirth.

An acceptable indicator of the potential parent population is the number of women aged 20-39, as 96% of childbearing women are in this age bracket. There were just over 6 million of these at the end of the 1960s, rising steadily to just over 8.5 million in 1986 (figure 1b) as the large cohorts of the baby-boom years (1946 to 1973) reached the age of 20 each year while the smaller inter- war cohorts exited the 20-39 age group on turning 40.

The 20-39 age group stopped expanding in 1986, but still remained at the high level of over 8.5 million for ten years. Each year, this age group lost a cohort of baby-boomers on turning 40, but added another that had turned 20. Because of their similar size, the 20- 39 age group remained stable in numbers. Replacement stopped in 1994, and the 20-39 year-old population

Editorial –The population of France in 2002

• Gender life expectancy gap still closing - p. 1 • Fertility stable but fewer births - p. 1 • French population growth is unique in Europe - p. 4

* Institut national d’études démographiques

(1) Infant mortality fell below the level of 5 deaths under the age of 1 per 1000 live births in 1995 and has declined a further 15%, levelling-out at 4.2 per 1000 in 2002.

CONTENTSBULLETIN MENSUEL D’INFORMATION DE L’INSTITUT NATIONAL D’ÉTUDES DÉMOGRAPHIQUES

The population of France in 2002

Gilles Pison*

No.388

M A R C H 2 0 0 3

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started to contract as the smaller post-baby-boom birth cohorts entered while the larger baby-boom cohorts continued to exit the 20-39 bracket. The number of women aged 20-39 has fallen from 8.6 to 8.2 million since 1994, and is expected to contract by 40,000 to 50,000 (–0.5%) a year until 2015 as the final baby- boomer cohorts turn 40. By 2015, the 20-39 year old female population may number only 7.6 million, i.e., 7%

fewer than now, possibly producing a similar annual fall in births of up to 710,000 if fertility behaviours remained unchanged

Potential parents’ propensity to procreate, i.e. their fertility, is the second predicating factor in birth totals for a given year. Whereas women in the 1920s and 1930s birth cohorts—the mothers of baby-boom children—

averaged more than 2.5 children per woman, those of the 1950s and early 1960s birth cohorts—the mothers of post-baby-boom children—had barely above 2 (figure 1c). Fertility data for subsequent cohorts are not yet available, but were it to be maintained at this replacement level, total births would be stabilized for a constant potential parent population.

The third factor is the age at which parents have children—conventionally, mean age at childbearing.

This has fluctuated widely over the past 50 years, first falling by a year and a half between 1950 and 1977 (from over 28.0 to 26.5 years), then reversing and rising unin- terruptedly to 29.5 years in 2002 (figure 1d). The current rise is due to younger cohorts delaying childbearing to a later age than their forebears. One consequence is a low birth total as females in the oldest cohorts have stopped childbearing while the younger cohorts have yet to start. If mean age at childbearing were to fall, by contrast, annual birth totals would rise as deferred births among the oldest cohorts combined with earlier births among the younger cohorts. Far from that, however, the twenty-plus-year trend towards birth deferral is continuing, and mean age at childbearing in 2002 had risen to 29.5 from 26.5 in 1977 (2).

All told, were future to equal past parity but with a growing lag in mean age at childbearing in the coming years, annual birth totals could continue to gradually decline as the potential parent population contracts.

Should the birth deferral trend be halted, however, annual total births could rise by over 10%.

2

INED The population of France in 2002

Population et Sociétés, 388, March 2003

700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 880 900

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Years Total births (thousands)

INED 020A03

Figure 1d – Mean age at childbearing

(2) Fertility among females aged 30 and over has risen since the end of the 1970s, while that of under-25s emerged from a steady decline and has been stable for some years.

Sources: Beaumel et al. 2002, [3]; Daguet, 1995, [4]; Brutel, [5].

Observation

INSEE baseline projection Projection with high migration scenario

Years

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0

INED 021A03 Total at 1 January (million)

022A03INED

Woman's years of birth 1.5

1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9

Mean number of children per woman

1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992

Observation

Projection at constant fertility rates (1998)

Projection of observed trends from 1983 to 1998

26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5 30.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Years Mean age (years)

INED 023A03

Figure 1c – Cohort lifetime fertility

Note: The women's birth years were adjusted by 28 years, which is the mean age at childbearing in this period.

Sources: Daguet, 2002, [2]; Toulemon and Mazuy, 2001, [6].

Sources: Doisneau, 2003, [1]; Daguet, 2002, [2].

Sources: Daguet, 2002, [2]; Beaumel et al. 2002, [3].

Figure 1b – Total population of women aged 20-39 Figure 1a - Annual births

(metropolitan France)

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INED Population et Sociétés, 388, March 2003

1 1

4

5

2 2

3 3

4

5

400

500 300 200 100 0 0 100 200 300 400 500

Birth deficit due to World War I (depleted cohorts) Depleted cohorts reach reproductive age

Birth deficit due to World War II Baby boom

End of baby boom 1912

1902

1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002

1912 1902

1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 YEAR OF BIRTH

Population in thousands Population in thousands

POPULATION OF FRANCE

PROVISIONAL ESTIMATE ON 1 JANUARY 2003

100 105

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Ages YEAR OF BIRTH

MALES FEMALES

INED 019A03

1 2

3 4 5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000(p) 2001 (p) 2002(p)

Births (m) 858 816 848 800 762 712 711 730 734 727 738 745 775 771 763

Deaths (m) 530 517 540 547 526 532 520 532 536 530 534 538 535 531 540

Natural increase (m) 328 299 308 253 236 179 191 198 199 196 204 207 240 239 223

Net migration (m) 35 140 180 44 80 70 50 40 35 40 45 45 50 60 65

Total growth (m) 362 439 488 297 316 249 241 238 234 236 249 252 290 299 288

Birth rate (t) 20.5 17.9 16.7 14.9 13.4 12.4 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.0 12.8

Death rate (t) 12.7 11.3 10.6 10.2 9.3 9.3 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.1

Infant mortality rate (r) 51.9 27.4 18.2 10.0 7.3 6.5 5.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.2

Total fertility rate (e) 2.93 2.73 2.47 1.94 1.78 1.65 1.65 1.71 1.73 1.73 1.76 1.79 1.88 1.89 1.88 Life expectancy :

male (a) 63.4 67.0 68.4 70.2 72.7 73.3 73.7 73.9 74.1 74.5 74.8 75.0 75.2 75.5 75.6

female (a) 69.2 73.6 75.9 78.4 80.9 81.4 81.8 81.9 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.5 82.7 82.9 82.9

Total marriages (m) 331 320 394 334 287 255 254 255 280 284 271 286 298 288 281

Marriage rate (t) 7.9 7.0 7.8 6.2 5.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.7

Population (1) (m) 42 010 45 904 51 016 54 029 56 893 57 565 57 753 57 936 58 116 58 299 58 497 58 749 59 038 59 338 59 626 Under 20 (1) (m) 12 556 14 665 16 748 16 419 15 632 15 180 15 084 15 058 15 056 15 027 15 018 15 015 15 003 14 998 14 979 65 and above (1) (m) 4 727 5 288 6 174 7 541 8 036 8 524 8 686 8 858 9 011 9 164 9 285 9 414 9 519 9 628 9 720

Under 20 (1) % 29.9 31.9 32.8 30.4 27.5 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.1

65 and above (1) % 11.3 11.5 12.1 14.0 14.1 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 (a) in years - (e) children per woman - (m) in thousands - (p) provisional - (r) per 1 000 live births - (t) per 1 000 population - (1) at year-end.

Source: INSEE.

Table – Population indicators from 1950 to 2002, metropolitan France

Source : Insee.

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4 The population of France in 2002

French population growth is unique in Europe

The total population of the 15 European Union countries is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in 2002, reaching 378 million on 1st January 2003, according to Eurostat provisional estimates [7]. There were slightly more births than deaths, producing a natural increase of 310,000 people (0.1% of the population). But this accounts for only a quarter of total population growth in the EU: migration is the main growth factor. Net immigration estimated at just over a million, accounts for three quarters. All 15 Member States grew in 2002, but the pace and patterns of growth varied considerably (figure 2a). Growth was highest in Ireland (over 1%) and lowest in Germany and Italy (around 0.1% and 0.2%).

France and the Netherlands experienced similar growth just above the European average. But France stands out for having the lowest net migration rate of the Fifteen.

Unlike most European countries, population growth in France mainly stems from a net births surplus. This stands out even more from the comparative absolute population growth of the Fifteen (figure 2b). France and Spain head the table, adding between 250,000 and 300,000 people each in 2002, followed by the United Kingdom and Italy with approximately 150,000 extra inhabitants. Germany ranks fifth among the big countries with an additional 115,000 people. The French net births surplus, amounting to 220,000 inhabitants in 2002, is unique in Europe and accounts for over two-thirds of the all-EU surplus. Spain and Portugal present a surprising

REFERENCES

[1] Lionel D^OISNEAU- « Bilan démographique 2002. Légère diminution des naissances », INSEE Première, no. 882, January 2003 • Bulletin mensuel de statistique, no. 1-2003, INSEE, p. 129-144

[2] Fabienne D^AGUET - Un siècle de fécondité française, coll. « INSEE Résultats, Société », no. 8, 2002, INSEE, 306 p.

[3] Catherine BÊAUMEL, Lionel DÔISNEAU and Mauricette VÂTAN - La situation démographique en 2000, coll. « INSEE Résultats, Société », no. 10, 2002, INSEE, 44 p. + cédérom [4] Fabienne DÂGUET - Un siècle de démographie française, coll. « INSEE Résultats », no. 434-435, 1995, INSEE, 306 p.

[5] Chantal B^RUTEL- La population de la France métropoli- taine en 2050 : un vieillissement inéluctable, Economie et statis- tique, no. 355-356, 2002, Insee

[6] Laurent T^OULEMONet Magali M^AZUY- « Les naissances sont retardées mais la fécondité est stable », Population, 2001/4, INED

[7] Eurostat - « Premières estimations démographiques pour 2002 », Statistiques en bref, no. 25, 2002, p. 1-7

picture—both were until recently sending countries whose populations grew substantially in 2002 due to what is now one of the most significant net immigration counts, and a low surplus of births over deaths. Without migration, the populations of Greece, Italy and Germany would have decreased and that of Sweden would not have increased.

The ten new countries that will join the European Union in 2004 (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) have a total population of 75 million, or nearly 20% of that of the Fifteen. Their population is estimated to have decreased by 0.2% in 2002 due to a net births deficit coupled with net emigration.

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Per thousand population All 10 new member countries

Germany Finland

Italye Austria

U-K Greece Belgium

All 15 Denmark Sweden France Netherlands Spain Portugal Luxembourg Ireland

Natural increase (rate) Net migration (rate)

024A03INED

-200 -100 0 100 200 300

Thousands of population All 10 new member countries*

Luxembourg Finland Denmark Austria Greece Sweden Belgium Ireland Portugal Netherland Germany

Italy U-K Spain France

INED 025A03 Natural increase Net migration

Figure 2 - Natural increase and net migration in the 15 European Union countries in 2002

* Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia.

Source: Eurostat, 2002, [7].

a - Rate per thousand of population b - Absolute population grouwth

POPULATION AND SOCIETIES. The monthly newsletter of the Institut national d’études démographiques ISSN 0184 77 83 Director of Publications: François Héran – Editor-in-chief: Gilles Pison – Translations Coordinator: Linda Sergent – Design and layout: Isabelle Brianchon – D.L. 1^er term. 2003 – Ined: 133. boulevard Davout - 75980 Paris. Cedex 20. France – Telephone: (33) (0)1 56 06 20 00 – Fax: (33) (0)1 56 06 21 99 – http://www.ined.fr – e.mail:ined@ined.fr