Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the livestock sector from an economic and social perspective

Direct and indirect effects of climate

change on the livestock sector from an

economic and social perspective

UMR SELMET, 2015, coll.

A.Ickowicz, V.Alary, A.Aboul-Naga, J.Lasseur, P.Lecomte, C.Manoli

,

M.A.Osma, I.Touré, A.Wane ….

Actually World animal production provides (FAO 2014):

26% of proteins consumption

13% of calories

1 billion poor people with livelihood

1.3 billion ‘jobs’

Contributes

14,5% of world GHG emissions

Accounts for

23 billion animals

1.4 trillion $

Uses

35% of crop production

30% of ice free land

Global sector view

Distribution of livestock systems

Source :

Livestock Long

Shadow,

FAO-LEAD 2006

Diversity of functions, services and systems

Descheemaeker et al. 2014

Roles of livestock in adaptation process



Livestock part of the NRM at the

regional level:



use of rangelands and marginal lands,

maintaining landscapes and increasing

ecosystems resilience (biodiversity, fire

hazards), natural resource management

(including water)



Livestock part of

household/community livelihoods:



significant contribution in food security and

livelihood improvement



Livestock: creation of links between

families, communities and regions through

transhumance and migration social capital

(protection, insurance, cement between the

cities and its hinterlands)

Effects of Climate Change on Livestock

Systems : Economic and social point of view



Direct effects



Productivity



Ressource availability



Ressource access



Indirect effects



Market prices



Conflicts

Exemples on case studies…



Egypt (ANR Elvulmed) : APRI / ARC;

SDCMR; Icarda



South of France (ANR Elvulmed, Climed)



Sahel (ANR Eclis): PPZS, ISRA, ILRI, CNRS,

IRD

Two case studies: PACA (Provence Alpes- Côte d’Azur, France) and

North Coastal zones (CZWD, Egypt)

Source: Bonnet, P., 2013, QGIS

Main Global Changes in the Mediterranean

Context



Doubling of the population

during the last 40 years in

the Mediterranean basin

Urbanization in the coastal zones

and rural emigration



“hot spots” of climatic

change

(Christensen et al., 2007)

 high variability of

temperature and rainfall

109 108 51 247 214 215 34 129 47 84 81 177 274 179 144 80 152 75 73 155 224 150 126 83 191 119 74 128 114 220 80 97 84 226 70 195 96 108 209 62 140 126 101 162 226 275 100 235 260 182 402 107 119 136 108 148 124 109 128 98 105 115 263 137 110 87 186 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 44 -45 46 -47 48 -49 50 -51 52 -53 54 -55 56 -57 58 -59 60 -61 62 -63 64 -65 66 -67 68 -69 70 -71 72 -73 74 -75 76 -77 78 -79 80 -81 82 -83 84 -85 86 -87 88 -89 90 -91 1992 1994 1996 ₉₈-99 ₀₀-01 ₀₂-03 2005 2007 2009 2011 m m /m onth years

CZWD: CC within global changes and vulnerability

1. Climatic change

2. Demography  Urbanization

3. Wadi development

4. Market change

5. Tourism and migration 

employment, land pressure and

access,

Direct impacts : Strong reduction of flock size

Zones

No of

breeders

a

₂₀₁₁

₁₉₉₅

Variation

of flock

1995-2011

Flock size

Rainfed

(From Sidi Barani to

Debaa)

119

73

204

-64%

Newly reclaimed land (El

Hammam+ Borg el Arab)

29

153

162

-6%

Siwa oasis

28

43

62

-31%

Total

176

81

174

-53%

Sheep

Rainfed (From Sidi Barani to

Debaa)

117

91

168

-46%

Newly reclaimed land (El

Hammam+ Borg el Arab)

24

193

172

12%

Siwa oasis

20

28

46

-39%

Total

161

98

154

-36%

Goats

Rainfed (From Sidi Barani to

Debaa)

111

23

42

-45%

Newly reclaimed land (El

Hammam+ Borg el Arab)

20

20

31

-34%

Siwa oasis

19

26

42

-38%

Total

150

23

41

-43%

Direct impacts : Land Cover Change

8700 Hectares of vegetation

cover have been lost due to

Drought

Vegetation

Bare soil

Dry trees

RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 12

Development of semi intensive poultry systems

Increase in the number of poultry production units between 2007 (1 farm)

and 2012 (54 farms) in the wadi of Naghamish (Matrouh Goverornate).

Vulnerable profiles in the rainfed zone

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%

Family

members

head education

rainfed area

wadi area

Ewe number

goat number

gov job

private job

occasional job

net income per

capita

average

profile 1. Most vulnerable

with very weak tribal links

profile 4. highly vulnerable

with strong social tribal

links

profile 2. Less vulnerable

with only tribal links

profile 3. Least vulnerable

with strong out and in-tribal

links

Diversity of adaptation process according to capital

asset profiles

Clusters

Major sources of risk

How do households

respond?

Most vulnerable (profile 1)

Drought and access on

pastureland (reduction of

plants and shrubs)

Livestock mobility

and animal

transaction

Highly vulnerable (profile 4)

Drought

Economic or political

instability

Diversification in cash crops

(Fig and Olive) thanks to

strong internal and external

family bonds

Less vulnerable (profile 2)

Drought

Economic activity in Marsa

Matrouh

Invest in education

for

diversification out of

agriculture thanks to the

proximity of the city Marsa

Matrouh

Least vulnerable (profile 3)

Drought

Trading activities and

business with Libya

Strong family bonds within

the tribes

• Climate change induce more drought hazard

• In PACA region, livestock system respond through more mobility

toward mountain resources

• In 2000s, sheep owners developed:

• more regular summer transhumance (longer in dry

periods)

• Winter transhumance in plains for mountain production

systems due to decrease in forage production

France PACA : Enhance adaptation capacity

through governance mecanisms at local level

Transhumance patterns modification in Provence

Summer transhumance for « Basse Provence » herds

Winter and summer transhumance for « Alpin » herds

• Modification of livestock spatial density and land use which

need specific governance mecanisms

• Local debates on the appropriate mecanisms (private and/or

collective)

• Competition on spatial resources (tourism, crop,

conservation,…) which need local regulations (Ex: Plan

d’Occupation Pastoral organised by local collective

organisations (CERPAM).

Need for governance mecanisms

Sahel Case study : Possible scenarios

2°C scenario RCP2.6

4°C scenario RCP8.5

Floods or Droughts ???

Key Challenge for the Sahel

Annual variations in the Sahel rainfall index between 1900 and 2010

Intra-annual

variation

Exacerbation of social tensions (1) Competition on

land and natural resources

Strong tension on land and resources with land tenure risks

Young people increasingly removing pastoral activities

Touré et al, 2013

Exacerbation of social tensions (2) Increased

mobility and conflict risks

Summary of recent national and transborder herd movements and

commercial cattle trade channels

Touré et al, 2013

Campement

AMA0

16 WED172

WED20

7 WED13 TES007 TES095 TES071 TES048 TES045 AMA001 TES121 WED200 TES074

WED06 2 AMA 031 AMA034 Activité E E+autrePonc tuel E+Autr ePonct

uel E E E E E E E+Autre E+Autre E+Autre E+ Autre

E+Autr e E+Aut re+ agric E+Autre +Agric

Comm. E E E E(tefo) E(dioula) E (dioula) E (dioula) E (Tab) E (Tab) E (Tab) E (dioula) E

(dioula) E (dioula) E (Tab) E E

Nombre Gall 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 Nombre Foyr 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 1 ou 2? sup a 4 sup a 4 Pop Adulte P P P P P M M M G M G G G M G G Effectifs PR P P P P M M G G G G G G M M P M Eff. Bovins 0 0 < 20 < 20 21-50 51- > 51- > 51- > 51- > 51 -> 51- > 21-50 21-50 21-50 51- > < 20

Saloum non non non non non oui (fini!) oui oui non non partie partie non non partie non

Orga.Gestion Centr Centr. Centr. Centr. Centr. Coll. Centr. Centr. Centr. Centr. centr. Coll. Coll. Centr. Centr . Centr. Entraide FP FP FP FP FP FP FP I I FP FP FP FP I FP ?

Small-holders

focused on

livestock

activities.

Vulnerable

Diversified livestock

keepers.

Least vulnerable

Small

capital.

Diversified

Vulnerable

Small traders Technical _livestock keepers

Large herd and family with external activities

Manoli, 2012

Exacerbation of market problems and shocks



low local market prices during

crisis



effect on terms of trade



trade exchanges correlated to

harvest and rainfall (in Mali in

2010,

terms

of

trade

equivalent to those of the

worst year of the decade)



delayed transmission of rising

food prices from international

to local markets



lack

of

harmonized

information on markets

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 J u ly A u g u s t S e p te m b re Oc to b e r N o v e mbe r D e c e mbe r J a n u a ry Feb ru a ry M a rc h A p ril M a y J u n e

GAO Central

- 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 J ul y A ug us t S ep tem bre O c tob er Nov em be r Dec em be r J an ua ry F eb rua ry Ma rc h A pril May _Jun e MENAKA

2002-2003 (bad year) 2007-2008 (good year) 2009-2010

Exacerbation of regulation instability

(-) no shared vision

(-) disparities of legal texts,

pastoral codes and regulation

modes : conflicts

(-)

weakness

of

law

enforcement agencies

(+) progressive recognition of

the role and function of

pastoralism

(+) recognition of the need to

harmonize regional legal texts

Conclusions



Economical and social adaptation strategies of

livestock systems are diverse and dependant on

capital and context



Need to adapt a diversity of resources (animal,

forage, feed,….) to changing environment with

different pathways



Institutions and regulations have to adapt to new

situations and dynamics (mobility, land use,

markets, conflict resolution,…)

RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 27