Demographic indicators of the level of living

V

..UNITED NATIONS,

: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL

Distr. . LIMITED ■

E/CN.14/POP/99

22 -June 1973 Original: ENGLISH

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA Seminar on Techniques of Evaluation of Basic Demographic D?.ta

Aoera," Ghana, |6»28 July 1973*

DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF THE LEVEL OF LIVING

+ This document was. issued for the United Nations Seminar on Evaluation and ■

*. Utilization of'Population Census Data in Latin America, held'in Srntiago, Chile, from 30 November to 18 December 1959 and the United Nations Seminar on Evaluation and Utilization of-Population Census Data in Asia and the Far East, Bombay, Indip, from ?0 June to 8 July i960. It is intended to use

this document also as a basis for discussion at the ECA Seminar on Techniques

of Evaluation of Basic Demographic Data, Accra, Ghana, from 16 to ?8 July

1973-

M73-1652

E/CN.14/POP/99

DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF THE LEVEL OF LIVING*

by '

Bernard Benjamin

General Register Office, London

; CONTENTS

A. INTRODUCTION ... . . 1

1. The objects of measurement ... 1

2. The role of demography 2 ■

3. Two notes of caution . . r . . . 3 4. Requirements of a demographic indicator ... . . 4

B. UTILIZATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS FOR INTERNATIONAL

COMPARISONS, . m % . . 5

5. Population composition 5

6. The labour force • 7

7- Infant mortality 9'

- 8. Expectation of life at birth 10

9* Crude annual death rate . 12

10. Proportionate mortality indicators 13

11. Literacy . • 14

12. School attendance and educational level . . . • 15

13* Housing . • ». • • - 15

14.- Other demographic measures 16

.15. Indices dependent upon the census ... 16

16. Discriminant functions . 17

C. UTILIZATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS FOR NATIONAL STODIES

OF LEVELS OF LIVING ,. . . . . . ,. . . . . .' 17 17. Adaptation of internationally recommended indicators . 18

18. Supplementation 'of internationally recommended in

indicators with additional indicators derived from

national statistics ..;....■•• 18

D. CONCLUSIONS . . . . 20

* This is a revision of document E/CN.9/CONF.I/L.II of 27 October 1959,

which was issued for the United Nations Seminar on Evaluation and Utilization of Population Census Data in Latin America. The author

wishes to acknowledge the.assistance of the United Nations Bureau of Social Affairs in carrying out this revision, particularly in the preparation of seotion C.

A. INTRODUCTION

1, The objects of measurement

The "level of living" is a term which, though defying precise

definition, at,least in simple terras, is commonly understood to indicate the extent to which socially acceptable physical and cultural desires are satisfied. Mere consideration of the environment is insufficient;

the adaptation .of the individual and of the community is also involved.

More difficult still, any absolute measure of the level of living would entail the specification of a set of material and' cultural values.' Not only would these values be specific to a particular community, but, worse still, one value may be defined only in terms of .another. :For example,;

health might be defined in terms of optimum nutrition, or intellectual satisfaction in terms of cultural activity. The pursuit of absolute ■ values leads to philosophical confusion. Moreover the pursuit would be

vain, since for purposes of community organization (which is what

government means) the level of living, like the level-ofwater in a

reservoir, is a relative and not an absolute term. The problem is further simplified by the fact that, with so much want in large tracts, of the world, the banishment of which forms a major objective of national and international planning, and with so much need of economic and social

development, a small advance in which may have imme;nse: impact upon this

poverty, present needs are- satisfied with crude indicators' of the better fulfilment of a few elementary wants. A simplified approach, which

concentrates on approximate measures of the degree of economic development and of satisfaction of such primary wants as foodvandshelter, health • and education, is not only fully justified in logic but may also' lead;

through wider appreciation of the main problems, to more efficient programmes of action.

■'■ !," International studies of levels of living play a useful part in the

planning and execution of programmes of technical assistance and other forms of international co-operation in economic'and social development of under-developed countries. Measures of the range■and distribution of levels of living and of the relative positions occupied by different countries are helpful in indicating the magnitude of tHe problem which faces the community of nations, assessing the needs of particular

countries, and co-ordinating the uses of resources to meet the principal

needs. Studies in this field are even more important for policy-making

and planning at the national level. For national'purposes it is

important to know wh'ere the nation stands in relation to other nations with regard both to the general wcale of level of living and to each of its components. It is equally important for the national authorities to be informed of the progress that is being achieved in raising the nation's level of living, and especially to be aware of.any decline, Information on variations of the level of living in different parts of the country and among different^ segments of the population is also of great importance, as an aid in designing programmes for the benefit of retarded areas and population groups.

e/cn.h/pop/99

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2. The role of demography-

For measurement of the degree of economic development, it would be most appropriate to seek direct indicators in terms of food supplies,

industrial production, investment and savings. By definition, however, an under-developed, economy does not need, and does not produce the necessary political pressures to provide sophisticated indices of economic

organization. Furthermore, in under-developed countries, economic - measures expressed.in monetary terms do not fully reflect living' conditions "because certain, essential needs are met, to a relatively

flarge extent^ outside the mechanism of.the market. Similar considerations apply to; the measurement of the degree of social or cultural-development.

On the other hand, most of the under-developed countries are' experiencing, pressures as a result of rapid population growth, and. the formulation of any economic,'medical, or population policies to deal with the effects, of these pressures requires careful statistical appraisal of the present demographic situation and of current trends.

Quite early, therefore, in the history of community expansion and reorganization, there is a call for statistics bearing on population growth - first for the population census and later for the establishment of birth and death registration. The population census is the natural first step in the development of social and economic statistics; and

since even from a single -census it is sometimes possible to make estimates of fertility and mortality'within acceptable bounds, the census is a

starting point for the study of demographic characteristics which are related to the level of living. It provides indicators of development

where none previously existed. '

It is not merely that demographic indicators are likely to be

developed before other economic and social indicators are available; some■

of these demographic measures, such as the expectation of life at birth and the'proportion of literates in the adult population, are themselves direct measures of specific components of the level of living, while

others have been demonstrated (Hausef, 1959 5 United Nations, i960) l/,

to be so highly correlated with indices of economic and social development that they are useful as genera! indicators. ." '

On grounds both of measurability and of efficiency the United Nations

has given priority to indicators of the following kinds: 2/- ,

\J For list of references, see page 22.

2/ For. a discussion of the significance and limitations of these indicators, see references p. 22 (United Nations, I960). The Statistical-Commission examined these indicators at its eleventh session (i960) and found them

suitable for purposes of the measurement of levels of living as

indicated in resolution 11 (Xl).. .

!•• •* Expectation of life at birth. • ■ -

2.- Infant mortality rate. , . . *.

3. Crude annual death rate. ■

4. Proportional mortality indicator - the proportion' of deaths at

. - ages fifty and over to all deaths. ' . "

5- National average food supplies in terms of calories it t^V

"retail" level compared with estimated calorie requirorcauts. ' 6. National average food supplies in terms of total proteins at the

retail level.

7. National average food supplies in terms of animal protein at

the retail level. . ■ -

8. Per oent-of total calories derived from cereals, roots, tubers

■ .and sugars. - ■ ■ ■..-,-

9- Adult literacy rate - percentage of population, male and female, fifteen years old and over, able to read and write.

10. -Total school enrolment ratio - total enrolment in-all.schools below the. level of; higher education as a'percentage ratio to

.the population aged 5-19.

11." Higher education enrolment ratio - total enrolment in institutions of higher education per- 100,000-population.

12> Proportion of persons unemployed' in the total labour force.

-• 13. Ratio of male labour force in agriculture to total male labour '

force.. . ' ■

14- Relative real wages (including wage fringe benefits) in seleoted

■ - , . o.ccupations. , . ■ . ■

15. Expenditure.on-food as a percentage of household expenditure. "

16. Per cent of the population living in (permanent) dwellings.

17. Per cent of occupied dwellings with three or more persons per

room. ,

18. Per cent of occupied dwellings with piped water.

It will be seen that of these eighteen indicators,■no less than ten may be derived from the population census and other demographic data,

and three from the census of housing.

3* Two notes of caution

Before proceeding to a .discussion of demographic indicators of levels of living it is important ,to introduce two cautionary notes.

First, the study of population must be muiti-dieciplinary. Population statistics can be properly appreciated only if there is also knowledge ' of the whole setting in which the content of these statistics, namely, the people, exists. It is necessary also to'understand the geographical and climatic limitations upon the development of resources, the ecological stage of evolution of the community, the cultural forces at work, the prevailing modes of economic organizatipn and production, the contribution of the community to international trade, and the past history of

incentives or obstacles to economic development (wars,"famines, etc.).

It may well be that in certain exceptional circumstances the otherwise

e/cn.14/pop/99

Page 4

universal relationship between the level of living and a chosen statistical indicator will-break down. Sufficient background information must therefore

"be accumulated to enable these "particular areas of uncertainty to be charted.. It may.also be.that a certain period will, because of some temporary disturbance, yield .indicators that are not representative of the longer(term situation. Timing .and history are therefore important.

Population censuses are planned in such a way as to minimize these

difficulties. . ■ . . .-

Secondly, there is the danger associated'with all single : figure

indices that sheer compression may lead them on occasion.to conceal more than they, reveal;. All averages conceal an underlying dispersion and are themselves.liable to be distorted by extreme values. "A more common >

difficulty lies in distortion of a demographic indicator (e.g., a crude

death rate) by some abnormality in the sex and age structure of the

population, and it is important to remove these influences by standardiza tion. Even a sex and age standardized death rate may be normal and yet conceal excessive mortality in one age group which is o^unter-balanced by lighter mortality in another. It is incumbent upon those who compute' indicators to make sufficient statistical investigation at the time of computation to enable them to warn unsuspecting, users about exceptional features which are not revealed by the indicator itself. Where there is

any lack of homogeneity in a community (and there nearly always is) some

indication of dispersoon is essential, particularly where social or

regional differentials are involved. Finally, it will be necessary, where an indicator is based upon a sample census or survey, to indicate the

sampling variance. . ■

4- Requirements of a demographic indicator.

The basic requirements of a demographic indicator of the level of

living-may be briefly etatedt - '_ .

(~i) It mi'st*.be either a measure of one of the components *of the lerel of living (health, education, etc.) or highly correlated

with and sensitive to "changes in the whole complex of economic,

Bocial and biological factors (food-, clothing, shelter,

j education, well-adapted employment, cultural use of leisure,

physical fitness, etc.) that constitute accepted attributes

of a high level of living, constitute accepted attributes of a high level of living.' . . .'

(ii) It must also be discriminating. Among a number of indicators

.for a set of countries of differing levels of living one would choose that with'the highest variance. : ' ' \ = , ■

(iii)- It must be comparatively simple in arithmetical structure and.,

derivable either from equally simple population census data or from a combination of such data, with statistics from other,

sources. ■ ■

(iv) ' :\As well as being simple in structure, it must be capable of

... '.interpretation in terms -of ' commonly accepted and simple concepts, ' •■ in the interests of wide appreciation and'international

comparability- ■ . .

(v) It should be comparatively insensitive to small distortions, in the demographic.structure of the population, Put■in another

way which links back the requirement (iii), it could be said

that there should be as little as possible standardization required.

'Additional requirements depend upon the purpose for which the.

indicators "are"used. Pur broad.international comparisons-it is necessary to use indicators which are widely availably-for countries ia different parts-of--the world." On the other hand, if the purpose is to measure • ■ changes in the level of living-in one country or differences between parts of the same country, indicators may be used which are available for

the country concerned, even though they cannot be obtained for other , oountries. When the purpose is to measure current changes in the level . of living, the periodicity of the statistics becomes a vital consideration.

Population censuses, which are ordinarily taken only once every ten years or in some countries every'five years, evidently cannot serve the purpose of current measurement, unless they are supplemented by current vital statistics and..demographic sample surveys. Still, decennial census statistics provide useful measures of.trends over longer periodo*

In section Bs various demographic indicators are considered.-with

reference tc their use in international comparisons. The use of indicators for national studies is taken up in section C.

Be UTILIZATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS FOR

• . . INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

5- Population composition

Countries which are economically under-developed usually have high and stable birth rates and very high mortality, especially at younger- -•

ages. The1 population pyramid-is wide at the base and low in height; it . forms a flat triangle. Developed countries have often passed from a

period of high fertility to a period of low fertility' and their mortality

is relatively low, again especially at very young ages; in consequence the population pyramid'presents itself as a high peak triangle representing longevity superimposed on a narrow rectangle representing recently

declining: fertility. It is therefore natural to regard-a high proportion

of old people (say./ aged sixty-five 3/ and.over),, or a low proportion of

_3/ For under-developed countries it is preferable to use the lower age

in order to work with an appreciable proportion-

E/CN.14/POP/99 i

Page 6

children (say, aged under fifteen) as indicating advanced economic development. Since both these group are for the most part economically

active, these proportions are.for want of•a better term referred to as

dependency ratios. In another context they do indicate the economic

pressure of dependency but in this context, since they indicate the atage of economic development, it would be preferable t.o refer to them as age-composition indicators of economic development.

The following figures are illustrative:

Age composition of the population

(per cent)

1

Country■ ■ ■ ■ '

Argentina Japan Chile India

Burma - ' 4

Nepal Ceylon

Korea, Republic of Pakistan

Mexico Brazil Venezuela Thailand Costa Rica Paraguay

Malaya, Federation of China: Taiwan

Philippines

■ Census

year

1947a/

1955^

1952 1951 / '

■ 1954b7 1954^

1953a/

. 1955^

1951 . 1950 1950 1950

■ 1947

1950 . 1950

195 7,/

1956^

1948

Under 15 years

30.933.6 37-4 37.4 37«4 39 0 2 39.7 41.2 /

(41.7)5/

41.8

41.9

42,0 '

■ 42.3 42.9 43.843-8 43.9 44.2

15-59 '

years

62.6

58.3

56.2

56.9

57.5 ■ 55.9 54.9 53-3 /

(54.1)^

52.7 53.9 53.5 . 53.5 52.4

50.2 51.6 . 52.1 51.0

60 years and over

6,6

8.1 , 6.5 5-7"

5-1 4.9 . 5.4

5.5 /

- (4.2)5/

5.5

4.3

" 4-5

4.2 4-8

'4.6

6.1 4.0

4-9 Range (per cent"of mean)

₃₃

Sources: United Nations, Report on the World Social Situation (Sales No.-:

1957.IV.3), p. 22; United Nations, Demographic Yearbook,

1955-1959 issues.

a/ Data based on a 1 per cent sample of census returns, b/ Official estimates.

0/ Census data hot given in adequate detail; figures estimated, taken

from United Nations, The Population of Asia and the Far East,

195O--198O (Sales No.: 59.XIII.3), p. 107.. : '

On thi's basis Argentina,-Chile and Japan, appear correctly as,more

developed than the other countries listed. Beyond this point, however, the'positions of the remaining countries are net very distinct, and the correlation of the indicator with the level of economic development is dubious. Paraguay appears to be somewhat anomalous, since it has a high proportion of young and old. It is not' at a very advanced stage of economic.development. The age composition cannot be regarded as.

sufficient. ' It satisfies basic.requirements. (iii) and (iv) of section 4j above, "but" hardly meets requirements, (i) and (ii).

6• The labour force .

Another aspeot of population composition derivable from the population census is presented "by the economically active population, especially in relation, on the one hand, to the.proportion engaged in different branohes

of--activity such as agriculture (the primary sector), manufacture ( tHe secondary, sector), services and distribution ( the tertiary sector) and,'

on the other hand, to the proportion not employed at all. Generally, 'it may be expected that highly developed economies will have low unemployment, low proportions dependent on agriculture and high proportions dependent on

trade and.services. . - ■ ■ ■ ■ .

n -

The following figures are for some of, the countries that were .selected for illustrative'purposes in section 5 above: ■

■ . Percentage of economically active population

Country

Japan ' .

Argentina .

Chile/ ' ./

Venezuela Paraguay Costa Rica Ceylon . ; Brazil ". , Mexico ' -

Malaya. Fed/ of Philippines Thailand

India ■ . '■' Pakistan"

Cenpus

year

1955s/

1947 . .1952 1950

■ 1950 19461950 . 1950 . 1950

1957 1948

. 1947

.1951 '

1951

Agriculture

(ISIC 0) ' 22.9

24.5 /■

29-5-^.

39. 7 w

47.9^

50.7- 52.9 / .

53-5^

. 54.3 55.6 j -62.2 -

65.8^

70.6**

- 76.3' :

Industry

(ISIC 1-5)"

. 31.-9'

,29,8 ,

: 30.2^/

. 21.1

22.5 '

17.6 10.3.

15-5

17.4 .. '13.8

. 11.6

5-3 / 11. IP

■ 7.3

Trade and Services

(ISIC 6-9)

45 -A / 39-2 ■ . 29,6

■ . 31.7 36.8

31.0 30.6 ,

28.3 26.2^..

28,9 A

18.3^

I6.4 ■

Range (percent of 6 •. ' 92

mean) , ■ ■ ■ . . ' ' ,. ■

Sources: International Labour Organisation, Year Book of Labour Statistics, 1959? table 4; United .Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1956,

•tables 12 and 14-

E/CN.14/POP/99

Page 8

a/ Data "based on a 1 per cent sample of census returns.

b/ Including persons employed in electricity, gas, water, and sanitary

services. " ■ ■ ■ i

o/ Excluding unpaid family workers and persons of unknown work status

grouped together.

&/ Excluding unpaid family workers, assumed to "be employed in the

agricultural branch of eoonumic activity.

e/ Including mining and quarrying.

f/ Including persons employed in the liberal professions.

_g/ Excluding earning dependants. - ■ '• ■ - " ■ ,

■ Figures in the. table exclude (l) unpaid family workers, (2) persons seeking work for the first'time, and (3) unemployed, generally not

distributable by industry.

1 Figures for Brazil, Paraguay and Venezuela exclude Indian jungle population, those for India and Pakistan, population of certain remote areas. '. .

Figures for Brazil, India, Pakistan and Paraguay exclude a relatively small number of schedules not tabulated by economic characteristics.

Here again Japan, Argentina, Chile, and now also Venezuela, appear

■as-more developed- and Mexico, Malaya, Philippines, Thailand, India and Pakistan as less developed. The position of Venezuela must be regarded as anomalous. Nevertheless the dispersion 'is fairly wide, the correlation

with development is good, and the sensitivity is high. This"indicator

(or set of indicators) does (almost by definition) satisfy the basic

conditions laid down in section 4 above.

One difficulty in using this indicator for international comparison is that the tertiary sector includes activities of which the economic significance differs widely from one. country to another. This difficulty may be surmounted by using as an indicator only the proportion of persons engaged in non-agricultural activities, that is, by grouping together persons engaged in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The .comparability of this indicator may be enhanced still further by taking account solely of the economically active males, because census data on .economic

activities of females-are less comparable at the international level;

This indicator can be expressed as the ratio of male labour force in agriculture to total male labour force, as recommended by the United

Nations (United Nations, I960, para. 28).

.It .is not. possible, to include sufficient unemployment indices, to provide adequate, illustration,. It must be stressed-here. that., in many. . under-developed countries the primitive organization of agriculture is

■ characterized by considerable underemployment between harvests and this ■

would render it difficult to interpret properly any statistics of

unemployment. " . ■

t' mortality -

Mortality measures are direct indicators.of .health, an important component of the level of living. The infant mortality rate,is a parti cularly sensitive indicator of health, and is also closely related to other aspects of the level of living. The history of all economically developed countries shows that, at least.beyond the earliest stages of industrialization; infant mortality is a sensitive index of the level of living. After birth the infant's circulatory, respiratory and digestive systems are put to the test, and-infections are encountered for the first time against which there is little natural immunity (beyond the first

week or two). These risks which the infant has to face are increasod by

a poor environment - insufficient food, insanitary housing, lack of.

warmth, inefficient maternal care. It is not surprising.that in developed communities the infant mortality rate is orie_pf..the most, widely used

indices of social conditions and of the efficacy of public health-

administration. ... -- . .

.In order to measure exogenous, mortality factors (mainly infection

and accidental injury) and to exclude endogenous factors (such as

prematurity, congenital malformation and birth injury), it would be most

appropriate to calculate the post-neo-natal mortality rate, viz.,' deaths under' one year of age less death in .the first four weeks of age, per

thousand live "births. However, in less/developed, countries it may not be possible to make distinction of deaths.after the first four weeks cf life, ■Further, , in .the absence'1 of ;birth and tieath registration it "may not

be possible to calculate directly the infant mortality rate (deaths under one year of age per thousand live births) and it may be necessary to use a "rate of mortality estimated from census data and surveys. In the latter

case-it may be advisable to ex'tend the age'period to include deaths under '

the age 'of five to facilitate1 estimation.. '' ..." . - '

A few figures are given below for purposes of illustration:

Page 10

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000

Country . ; ■ live births), 1950-55 a/

Japan ■ ■ - 50

Argentina 64-

■ Ceylon " 76

Malaya, Federation of 89

Costa Rica - 91 .,

China: Taiwan v (l00) ' ' '

Mexico . . _ . (125)

Paraguay ' . (125)

Chile" . . . 127 - . , . .

Brazil ' ' , ^ ' : '(150)" ■

Venezuela ■ " (150)

Thailand . U75)

India '. . . (200) .

Philippines ' ■ (200)

Pakistan . . ■. (200)

Burma "'.".■ . (225)

Approximate range . ■^0

(per cent'■■of mean) •

Source: United Nations, iteport on the World Social Si'tuation (Sales No, .1957.IV.3), P. 18.

■ Although the figures given here are very rough, they serve to show a broadly consistent pattern of negative correlation between, the infant mortality rate and the level of economic arid social development* Japan and Argentina are correctly indicated as more developed, and Brazil, Venezuela, Thailand, India, Philippines, Pakistan and Burma as less developed. Chile, howeverJ which is shown by the industrial employment indicator as more developed, has a rather high infant mortality rate*

Ceylon and the Federation of Malaya, which are less developed industrially, have lower infant mortality rates than Chile. There is good dispersion arid in other respects-the requirements of an efficient indicator are

satisfied. Certainly in those parts of the world where reliable mortality statistics are available, the. infant mortality rate is highly correlated with economic development. The infant mortality rate is' simple to compute;

it is automatically age-standardized and its use is based on the simple biological concept set out above. It is one of the most widely used demographic indicators of levels of living for international comparison.

8. Expectation of life at birth .

The choice of expectation of life at birth as a priority indicator by the United Nations is understandable for it is an age-standardized index compounding the mortality not at one age but at all ages. It is a readily .

understood concept and indeed is generally accepted as one useful way of summarizing the age-specific mortality rates of a particular country in a particular: period (Benjamin, 1959). However, it has certain'■draw backs.. First, that when the age-specific mortality rates are examined it is "seen that after the first f&v days of life "these rates decline ■ ■ .rapidly with advancing age and do not again reach the same order of

magnitude until the extreme advanced'ages (for a particular country) are approached. It follows that the expectation of life at birth is'very largely determined by the infant mortality rate especially in'less

developed countries, where this rate is high. Secondly, the expectation of life is not simple in structure or -in computation, and it demands

reliable age-specific mortality rates which are not yet generally available;

and as a weighted average of many generations its sensitivity to environmental changes must be weakened. ! :

. The use of-this indicator is limited by lack of reliable data for many countries of the world. The i960 round-of censuses which will make available data on age structure of population should increase the number of countries for which it will be possible to make estimates'of the expectation of■life. The following are illustrative figures for most- of

the countries hitherto selected as examples: ' ; . ■ .

Expectation of life at birth

Country ■■•• Period in years (both sexes) a/

Japan- 1953 64

Ceylon 1954 - 6o

Argentina 1947 ■ cq

Malaya, Federation of 1950-55 (59)

Costa Rica . . . . 1949-51 .. -. . ' ■ 56

.China: Taiwan 1950-55 f qq)

Chile ' . 1952 ■ 52 ■ ■

Paraguay . 1950-55 " (50)

Mexico 1950-55 *(5C)

Brazil 1950-55 (45)

Venezuela ■ . 1950-55 (45)

Thailand / 1950-55 ■ • (40)

India 1950-55 (35)

Philippines 1950-55 (35) ■

Pakistan 1950-55 ■ (35)

Burma - 1950-55 (35)

Approximate range per cent of mean for

sixteen countries - 60 • •

Source: United Nations, Report on the World Social Situation (Sales No . • .1957. iv.3), pp. 19-20. . . : ~~ ; ~~ .. ..

a/ Figures in parentheses are approximate estimates. .

e/cn.14

Page 12 "

The values of life expectancy at,birth for .the various countries are'

positively correlated with the level of living'in general terms. The'

values for the sixteen countries in the .illustration run on■the whole.in

accordance with general impressions,of the rankings of levels of living.

Japan and Argentina have high values of life expectancy. Chile, howeyer, has only an average value, while Ceylon, China: Taiwan, Costa Rica,' and the Federation of Malaya seem .to occupy anomalous positions. The reduced degree of sensitivity and discrimination of the measure of,life expectancy

as compared with' infant mortality is evident.'' ■■''■■'■■ ■ "-' '■• -/' - :!'-

9 • - . : Crude annual death rate . • • ' ,. • ...'..'-..

The crude death rate has been,inoluded in the list of priority- indicators recommended by the United Nations in spite of the fact that it is.influenced by the age structure of the population. The selection of the crude death rate, as a priority, indicator is due to the fact that', it-is widely available and fairly efficient-as a measure of the intensity of mortality; al.so.it is correlated, though not very perfectly, .with-■

other aspects of the level of living. Even in countries without death registration it is sometimes possible to estimate the crude death rate

approximately from census data. ■ ' ■

As expected, the orude death rates of the countries selected for the' present ..illustration follow fairly closely the rankings of their infant

.mortality rates. " ,.

Crude annual death rate (per 1,000

^Country population), 1950-55 a/ " '

Japan . . " 9 ■ ' . ■. .

Argentina' \ l y ■ ' ' (10)

Chile ' ' 13 ■ . ■

■Malaya, Federation of 13 '■

Ceylon ' ■ . (14) .. .

Costa Riva . (15)

Mexico - (15)

PParaguay - _ (15) ■ •'.-.•• :

China; Taiwan ' " " (19)

Brazil . -. (20)

Venezuela ■ . . . ,'. (20)

India . " " ' . , (28)

Thailand . - ■ . • (28)

Pakistan ' . ■ (-30) -

Philippines. (31')

Burma , ; . :-.. . .- . ,,. . . .. : ; ■ ' - ■ (-31)

Approximate range . - ,

(per cent of mean) ^ '''"'.'.:' - / [ \ :

Source: United Nations, Report on the World Social Situation (Sales No.:

1957.IV.3), PP. 14-16. , :

a/ Figures in parentheses are approximate estimates.

Page 13

• * *:

When the crude■death rate is considered as an indicator .of the general level of living, Japan and Argentina appear as more developed while. Brazil, Venezuela, India, Thailand, Pakistan, Philippines and Burma appear -to "be less developed. On the other hand,, the Federation of Malaya.and Ceylon have lower crude death rates than some other countries cited .'in the table, which-may be ..equally well developed'or -more bo. The example shows that the values of the.crude .death rate

have ,a good dispersion. ' • ■ .

It is necessary to inject here a special warning in.relation to all mortality measures. The special massive anti-malaria camppigns and other internationally organized health programmes of the "last deoade-have/had a dramatic effect upon mortalityrates .and may well- have disturbed them from levels which would, otherwise be exhibited in

the prevailing economio conditions of particular countries. There is also the general impact of antibiotics to.be taken into account. All this-is"likely to have affected the extent of correlation between mortality and.other aspects of levels of living. A general warning against factors of this kind has already been given in section.3.

10, Proportionate mortality indicators ■ .

Two other mortality measures in the form of proportions have frequently been proposed as indicators of the level of living:

■ : (i) The, .proportion of deaths .at. ages fifty and over to all, deaths

This indicator has been recommended by the United Nations because of its relation to the level of living generally rather than to the component of health in particular. The argument is that<if the level of living in raised mortality will decline more' particularly for the younger age

sectors, ', ■ ■ ■

so that more people will survive to older ages arid therefore this proportion will rise. The advantage of this proportion is that it can be calculated on the basis of a rough age breakdown of deaths. The disadvantage is'that it is not age standardized and is- affected by the age structure of the population; it may reflect past history rather than present conditions.

■ (ii) Deaths caused by- parasitic and infectious.diseases as a

proportion of all deaths ■ .

In a sense this is the inverse of (i) since-deaths frora infection

predominate when the level of living is low and such deaths are also mainly at young ages. Much the same disadvantages apply'as to (i).•

There are tha further disadvantages that (l) it is just in the lees

developed countries that cause analysis of deaths is lacking and (2) that this proportion is particularly liable to be influenced by special

health campaigns. This proportion.has not been recommended by the United Nations. It cannot be estimated from census data.

E/CN.14/POP/99

Page 14

11. Literacy .. , . .. '

Measures of the educational status of the population, like measures of mortality, have a claim to consideration.£n the 'measurement of levels of living vhioh does not depend only on their statistical correlation

with other economic and .social indices. A certain level of .popular . ;

education is regarded as indispensable in the long run for the satisfactory economic and social development of each nation. In .this sense eduoation is a fundamental need, and, a" mea'sure of the degree of - its satisfaction is

an important .item for. the. measurement of the: level of: living.- "^ _ f

In'addition, measures of educational status are related".to other

aspects, of the level,of giving. A high rate of illiteracy, in a country

is conceptually incompatible .with a high level- of living. . .To remove,

illiteracy requires'an organized system of primary education and this ■ itself is a concomitant of economic and social'development. A priori the proportion of the adult, population which is literate should be a good

indicator, of the general level of living. Literacy, is recommended by the United Nations as a .basic, topic .for the population census (1958), and the adult literacy rate is recommended.as a priority indicator, of

the level of living.

The following illustrative figures are available:

■ Census Per cent literate^ in popula-

Country ; year tion 13 years old and over

Japan •

Argentina

Chile - ■■-.-■

Costa Rica

Paraguay * ■■■.

Ceylon "

China: Taiwan Philippines .

Thailand - ■ • - Venezuela "

Brazil

Malaya, Federation of

India ;

1947

1952 1950 . 1950

1953^

1948

1947 1950 ■ 1950 1947

125i

7

79

/

52 52 49 3°

Range. (per cent of mean)

¹²⁷

Source: UKESCO. Basic Facts and Figures, 1958'(SS.XIV.4A), p. 13-

• a/ Able to read and write. • .

b/ Sample survey estimate.

0/ Population fourteen years old and over,

d/ Able to read only; estimate ..based on a 2 per cent sample of census

returns. . ■' '■ ^ ' ^

e/ 1955 estimate. . ■..-:■■

On the basis of the adult literacy ra'te1, as an indicator of-the ■ . .general level of living, Japan, Argentina, Chile and Costa Rica appear

as more developed.countries and Brazil, the Federation of.Malaya, India as -less developed. -The' position/of Costa Riva must "be regarded' zs ' anomalous. In this illustrative £roup the dispersion is quite wide,' and. the indicator appears to be well correlated w.i.th. and .sensitive to.

changes in economic development. A simple concept and a simple "

computation are involved. There is no real need for age standardization -so long .as; the calculation is restricted to the' adult population. (Most

under-r-developed. countries have: a short expectation of life so. that the, weighting; of the literacy index by. older generations is . correspondingly

„ .reduced.)- ■ ■. ' ' "

. I?,- School attendance and educational level / ' .

. ,,.- -At an -early stage-in a country's educational development, literacy

reaches.a high level and becomes insensitive to changes in the level 'of

living. ..The -total school enrolment ratio, signifying total enrolment'

in all schools below the level of higher education expressed as a percentage, ratio to the population aged five to nineteen inclusive,, might serve for a time and indeed is included in the list of priority, indicators; recommended-by the United Nations. ' But' wi'th further

development of- education,.this indicator too will approach a limiting ratio .and become insensitive. In such circumstances another priority

Indicator- measuring the intensity of higher education which has also been recommended by the. United Nations may suit the purpose better. This indicator is called:the "higher education enrolment ratio", signifying.

total .enrolment in- institutions of higher education per 100,000 population.

UNESCO has proposed as a supplementary indicator the "index of . i ,' '

educational attainment" defined as the median number of years .of formal schooling completed by the population, male and female, twenty-five years old and over. There are unfortunately insufficient data to test the efficiency of this index as an indicator of the general level of living. It is hoped that more data will be available after the i960

round of censuses. . . ' ■ ■ ' ' ■

13. Bousing ... ■ ...

Good housing conditions, like a satisfactory level of''education and moderate mortality rates, are■an essential component.of a high level of living and if ithe General Principles for a Housing Census"are adopted considerable,data will be available from the i960 round of censuses.

The priority indicators recommended by the United Nations under housing are, as previously noted,

(1) Per cent of the population.living in (permanent) dwellings.

(2) Per cent of occupied, dwellings with three or more .persons

per room (overcrowding). \ ' .-.

(3) Per cent of occupied dwellings with piped water..4/-

This is not a demographic indicator; information on this, and also

on the other two, may come from the housing census.

/ 4

Page 16

In developed economies these indicators are highly correlated-with social conditions, but it is by no means.clear how significant they are when applied to countries where climatic conditions' favour very rustic or

improvised housing. - ,

14. Other demographic measures ,. ■ ■

(a) Fertility. Since the economically more advanced countries tend

to have an inverse correlation between birth rates and the level of

?£^35? ^ h3S b6en suSgQsted (Hauser, 1959) .that some fertility.-index,

tbirth rate, reproduction rate, effective fertility, ratio, viz., children under five years of age per thousand women of reproductive age, etc.) ' might be used as an indicator but international comparisons are affected by differences in mortality levels, and fertility levels themselves are liable m advanced countries to be disturbed.by social snhemes designed to foster larger families (e.g., France, United Kingdom) when the fall in fertility has approached the stage of incomplete replacement,

,. -■ (b) Urbanization. Industrialization is accompanied by the

concentration of the population in'clusters rather than in the scattered settlements of agricultural communities. A suggested comparative index"

tHauser) is the proportion of the population resident in places with populations of 20,000 or more. The data are likely to be derivable from

the population censuses of i960. However, in so far as the formation of clusters is associated with progressive.industrialization this index ■ seems unlikely to be an improvement upon the industrial composition.of ■ the labour force discussed in section 6. The population cluster is an advanced concept calling for cartographic as well as demographic technique tEconomic Commission for Europe, 1959) and this■form of geographical

analysis of census data,', though of great interest and usefulness, is by

no means simple. " ' * ■ T ' J

15• Indices dependent upon the census

' - . ■ ■

There are a number of economic indicators (e.g., national -income, food supplies, etc.) which have to be thrown into per capita form and therefore require base populations from the census, though it would not on this account'alone be proper to refer to them as demographic in"

charaoter. One important index of this, form referred to by. Hauser is the "index of relative.development" i.e., the ratio cf the country's ■ proportionate share of the total world product to the country's

proportionate share of 'the total world population. It is a simple and understandable concept and has'an obvious appeal. '

One aspect is important, nameiy, that if census data are to be used

in such indices there must be consistency in the jnderlyinj population

concepts. For example, if the index refers to agriculture, then the

same definition of "agriculture" must apply in the census population as

in the economic .data. Uniform territorial units must also be used.

16. Discriminant funotions . ■ ■

■ - ' N v ■'■'.'■. _';%..

Not all the demographic indicators discussed are related in quite the same way to the level of living. There is no one indicator which' represents- the true position while other:indicat rs deviate ■from the true representation. , It might-therefore.be suggested that the indicators should be put "together in :a" composite index,' the various .indicators being so weighted as to produce "the maximum separation of countries with

different levels of living. There are possibilities'here but this ■ * procedure might prove to defeat the object'for which' it is- intended.' .There would be a considerable lose of simplicity, both in the structure

of the index and in interpretation. Furthermore there would be a loss of utility through failure' to indicate the position of each country separately with regard to different major components of the level of living. It is no less important to.know in what respects the level of living in a given country is more or less unsatisfactory than to measure

the general level, .

On the other hand, it..seems unwise to introduce a bewildering medley of. demographic indicatbrs. For demography, is only a part of the.picture, and it is to be hoped that countries would also attempt to develop economic indicators. In broad international comparisons of levels of living, there is room perhaps for only the two or three best demographic indicators and these can be appreciated together without

formal mathematical combination. ' ■ .

C. UTILIZATION OP DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS FOR'NATIONAL . STUDIES OF LEVELS OF LIVING _ '

' International comparisons are. important even in studies of the level of living in a single country, since it is of great interest to compare the conditions of the country concerned with those of other countries. ■ Such comparisons, however, are not the sole purpose of national; studies in this field; as already mentioned, it is also useful to trace the ohanges in the national level of living and its components over a period of time and to oompare the levels of living in different

partsof the country and among different segments of the population.

For-these purposes, it may be desirable.to modify the internationally _ recommended "priority indicators" so as to adapt them to national

conditions, and to supplement them ;with others. The statistics of the country concerned may afford., superior indicators "which are. not widely ,

available in other countries, "ah&'some" Indicators which are not very

useful, for international comparisons,;because their relations to the level of; living, vary-in different-parts of the worl£,.may be found . . satisfactory for use within ~a given.country. On the other hand, some of the indicators recommended for international use may be utilized directly, without adaptation, for/the purposes of formulating and

evaluating national social programmes (Cabello, 1959)•

E/CN.14/POP/99

Page i8

17. Adaptation of internationally recommended indicators ' "

The adaptation of an internationally recommended indicator for

use in a national study can b.e illustrated, with reference to statistics

of school attendance in various prefectures of Japan. The priority

indicator, "total school enrolment ratio" .(ratio of to.tal enrolment in .

all schools "below the level of higher'education to the population aged

5—19 Ysars) is not very satisfactory.for the study of differences within

Japan'because, in every .'prefecture, nearly.all children between the.

ages of. seven and 'thirteen years attend school; the indicator is therefore not very, sensitive to variations of the level of living

within ,this country. , The. conditions at'the time of, the 1950 census are shown by the following .'analysis of percentages of persons attending sohool in various age, groups; ■ . - . , "■ " ' "

Age

(years)

6

7-9 .

10-12

13-15 '

- 16-18

19-21 22-24 Source:

Percentage attending school, all

■ Japan

'47-4 .

95-798.8

86.9 ' '31.1

8.1

2.7

Range Highest Prefecture Yamanashi

Saga Nagano Nagano ' Okayama Tokyo Tokyo

of percentages values

for prefectures Lowest values Percentage Prefecture ]

49-3.

97.5 99.5 '

92.8 44.9 23.110.6

Aoraori Osaka Mie Osaka Aoraori Aoraori Akita Japan, Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime

Percentage

•" -42.2

94.2 '

• 93.2

81.7

20.8 . .3-30.6 Minister,

. Range as per6entage

of mean - 15-

36

■13 ' 77 244 37Q Population Census of-1950, vol. IV, pp. 246-252.

In 'these circumstances, the percentage of persons sixteen to eighteen years of age attending school might be selected as an indicator to

replaoe the "total school enrolment ratio". The figures for this age group have a wide dispersion and should present a clear picture of variations among the prefectures in this aspect of the level of living.

18. Supplementation of inteTnationally recommended indicators -with : additional indicators derived from national statistics ■ . - *

The use in national studies of an-efficient indicator which can be derived from the statistics ;of the given country, but which cannot be obtained for other countries, can be illustrated with reference to . statistics from the 1955 census of Japan which show the average, amount of space per person in the dwelling houses in various parts of the country, In this census, the size of eaoh dwelling house was recorded in terms ■ of.tatami (wall-to-wall floor mats of an approximately standard size,

i.e. about 3 x 6 feet).-' The average numbers of tatami per person, in ordinary .househo.ld.s occupying dwelling houses, .were, as follows:

Administrative division.

1

All Japan , .

All urban areas

■ .Six'..major cities Ku-^afea rof Tokyo-to . . Jfokbhama-shi . '

Osaka-shi . ' : .. Kobe-shi ..

Nagaya-shi Kyoto-ehi

Other urban areas of

50,000 or more *

inhabitants

Urbah areas ?f less than

■ 50,666 inhabitants'

Number of ..tatami per

.• person

'3.78 .

3.50 ,

■ 3.02 . . 2.86 ■

2.83- 2.84 ■

3.02

3/65

3.77

3-57 4^ 00

Administrative Division

All rural areas 1. Tokyo-to .' ■ 2. Kanagawa-ken 3. Osaka~fu 4- Nagasaki-ken 5. Fukuoka-ken 6. Kochi-ken 7. Kagoshima-ken 8. Kumamoto-ken 9. Miyazaki-ken 10. Saitama-ken 45.- Toyama-ken .46. Ishikawa-rken.

Number of tatami per

person

- 4.

-2.

■ 3.

3.

3.

3, 3.

3.

3- . 3.

■.5.

3-

91 1'4

08 09 . 11

19

28 31 31 a7- 37 6.07

35

Source: Japan, Bureau of Statistics, Office of. the Prime Minister, J955

Population Census .of Japan, vol..II, part 1,'pp. 17O-l8l. Data based on a 1 per cent sample of census returns.

The range of average numbers of tatami per person, among the areas considered in this analysis,.amounts to 86-per cent of the -mean for all

Japan. .- ~ . . - ■■ -, . . \ .

For the- study of'congestion in housing, as an aspect of the levels of living^in-diff.eren.t parts .of Japan, these averages.are useful supplements

to the. measures of numb.er-.of persons per. room>which ^an be obtained from

the s.tatistics of jnany other countries. Where -such indicators can be ob.tained, ^,it is. desirable to use them for-studies of conditions within

the. country,- while -retaining the internationally recommended indicators

for .International comparisons. - ■., ■.■.,.•,. ■ : .

Other indicators :WTh-ich'may., be .very useful vfor national studies of.

levels of. .living in. countries where-.the necessary statistical, data can-be

obtained, but which are not: among the "priority indicators''- recommended

for international comparisons,;,include measures of under-employmenrt .- ■ occupational composition, of the labour-rforce, economic act'ivi.ty. rates,'1 morbidity, and community services and .amenities (such as accessibility of schools, medical and.:healLth services, transportation and communicati-6'n facilities, etc.). . . . . ■ . . ■ ;. * - :, , .

The numbers of' tatami were recorded-with the exclusion of kitchens,

bathrooms, hallways, etc. . ■ ~ .

E/CM.14/2OP/99

Page 20

D. CONCLUSIONS

The efficiency of demographic indicators is measuring -the level of living'has been illustrated in a.number of examples both in their use for international comparison and for national purposes. It cannot be

over-emphasized that the primary objective of every country is to .develop ..

reliable census procedures and vital registration systems. If this objective is- achieved,- the provision of a wide choice of demographic ■■

indicators follows with little further effort. It is much better that . resources should be applied to fulfil this basic need than they should - be diverted to making unfruitful or hazardous "estimates" of the level' o± -.

living with'little factual basis. A little arithmetic with some sound , statistics is likely to be the most profitable line of approach -The most thorough analysis of the level of livings has been attained in the ; economically well-developed countries traditionally through the .medium of

the population census.

. \ .. . ■

The censuses of population which will be taken in many countries in and around i960 can furnish rich materials for studies of the levels of living. Wherever it is possible to carry out the programme .of tabulations of results of these censuses which has been .-recommended by the United Nations (1958a), material will be available for the computation of at

least the following items in the internationally recommended listof' .. -.

"priority1 indicators", for international comparisons:

1. Expectation of life at birth"5 2. Crude death rate*;

3. 'Adult literacy rate;

4. Various forms of school-attendance ratios;

5. Proportions of persons unemployed;

6. Ratio of male labour force in agriculture to total male labour

. . force.

■ In addition to the provision of these standard indicators for international use, it is important, in planning a national programme of tabulations of the census results, to consider possible uses of the data for the computation'of supplementary.indicators, to be used for national studies of the level of living. The tabulation programme recommended by the United Nations will provide material for the computation of some

supplementary indicators which may be found very useful in this connexion, including measures of levels of education completed by the population, occupational composition of the active population, economic activity rates, and unemployment rates. Tabulations of housing.census results (or. of ^ housing data obtained from population censuses) in accordance with the internationally recommended standards (.United Nations, 195°^) will also

* Items which can be calculated or estimated if adequate statistics.of death registration are available for use in connexion with the statistics of population by age groups, or if the age distributions of the population at1 two or more census dates are available in such form as to permit

estimates of the mortality rates.

also provide .very useful- data for studies of the level of living,

including the following indicators recommended by the United Nations: ■

"" Per cent of the population living in (permanent) dwellings;

Per cent of occupied dwellings with three or more persons par room*

Per cent-of occupied dwellings with piped water.'

If census and vital statistics on a full*scale are beyond the

resources of I country, which may still be accomplished by sample surveys,

A great-deal has been/done to .develop techniques for such surveys m the

most primitive circumstances. ' ' .

As countries reach a more advanced stage of toTOlop™n^ £°![^£

:s

of

intensive unaw.r uru-xu-g, J-"iuiY-"o . , . n^^n+^r Af

indicators, and will require the joint effort and close oollaooration of ;

the economiste, sociologists and demographers..

■ In conclusion, it would be premature to make final remit*° *£*. - . much needed trials must await the results of the 196O ™und of national

population censuses, but the following- views may be Be . down in summary M) Seraographic indicators of proven/efficacy can.bs produced

■ provided certain basic-census-type statistics are available.

(2) Thess indicators gain in importance'because they are likely . to be universally or generally available long ^";orV^a^sj7e

^ basic non-dem.ographic statistics, which emerge at a Idtar s.age

. . , -.of economic and social, development, are generally provided. .

. r

'■4'- .

'*>■■■•

e/cn. 14/POP/99

Page 22

REFERENCES-

Benjamin, B.

Cabello, 0. ■

Hauser, P.M. :

United" Nations

United Nations United-Nations

United Nations

United Nations

(■1959) ■Elements of• Vital Statistics ♦ ■ '

. ■ Alle.n and Unwin,- London. . . • •

(i960) "Uses of statistics i'or the formulation

.. . ■ and evaluation of social, programmes", to

"be published in Journal of the American

Statistical Association (September.i960) (1959). "Demographic indicators of eoonomio

development"'. .-Economic, Development, and .■

Cultural Change, voln 'f... No. *23 pp. 98 (1954) ■ .Report on- International Definition and

Measurement of Standardsand Levels of

Living (Sale's No, 7 .1954. IV..5). ' (1957) ; Report on the World Social Situation

(Sales No. :~1957. IV.3).

(1958a) Principles and Recommendations for ,

- National Population Censuses (Sal.es No. :

58.XVII.5).

( 1958b)- Principles and Recommendations for ; .■■'

National Housing Censuses (Sales No.:

58.XVII.8),,

(i960) International Definition and Measurement - of Levels of Living. E/CN. 3/270 (Mimeo.)-*

United Nations (1959)

Economic Commission . for Europe

Report of Group of Rapporteurs on Locality

Statistics and Urban/Rural Classification

Conf. Eur. Stats/WG.6/83.