Air Transportation: The Next 100 Years Challenges and Opportunities

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Air Transportation

The Next 100 Years

Challenges and Opportunities

Air Transportation

The Next 100 Years

Challenges and Opportunities

Prof. R. John Hansman

MIT Department of

Aeronautics and Astronautics

rjhans@mit.edu

Prof. R. John Hansman

MIT Department of

Aeronautics and Astronautics

rjhans@mit.edu

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Flight Trajectories Departing YVR

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Overview

ü Trends

ü Challenges

ü Possibilities

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Fundamental Need for Travel

Global Travel Time Budget

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

0 5000

10000

15000

20000

GDP/cap, US$(1985)

Travel

Time

Budegt,

h/cap/d

African Villages in: I Tanzania, 1986 II Ghana, 1988 City Surveys: 1 Tianjin (China), 1993 2 Kazanlik (Bulgaria), 1965/66 3 Lima-Callao (Peru), 1965/66 4 Pskov (Former USSR), 1965/66 5 Maribor (Former Yugoslavia), 1965/66 6 Kragujevac (F. Yugoslavia), 1965/66 7 Torun (Poland), 1965/66

8 Gyoer (Hungary), 1965/66 9 Olomouc (Former CSFR), 1965/66 10 Hoyerswerde (Former GDR), 1965/66 11 Sao Paulo (Brazil), 1987

12 Sao Paulo (Brazil), 1977 13 Warsaw (Poland), 1993 14 6 Cities (France), 1965/66 15 Osnabruck (Germany), 1965/66 16 44 Cities (USA), 1965/66 17 Jackson (USA), 1965/66 18 Paris (France), 1976 I II 19 Paris (France), 1983 20 Paris (France), 1991 21 Sendai (Japan), 1972 22 Sapporo (Japan), 1972 23 Kanazawa (Japan), 1974 24 Kagoshima (Japan), 1974 25 Kumamoto (Japan), 1973 26 Hamamatsu (Japan), 1975 27 Fukui (Japan), 1977 28 Niigata (Japan), 1978 29 Hiroshima (Japan), 1978 30 Osaka (Japan), 1980 31 Tokyo (Japan), 1980 32 Osaka (Japan), 1985 33 Tokyo (Japan), 1985 34 Cities No. 21-29 in 1987 35 Tokyo (Japan), 1990 36 Osaka (Japan), 1990

National Travel Surveys: A Belgium, 1965/66 B Austria, 1983 C Great Britain, 1985/86 D Germany, 1976 E Netherlands, 1979 F Great Britain, 1989/91 G Finland, 1986 H Netherlands, 1987 I France, 1984 J Germany, 1982 K Netherlands, 1989 L USA, 1990 M Germany, 1989 N Switzerland, 1984 O Switzerland, 1989 P Australia, 1986 Q Singapore, 1991 R Norway, 1985 S Norway, 1992 T Japan, 1987 2 1 3 ₄ 5 7 8 9 ₁₀ _{14 15} 16 17 12 11 13 6 18 ₁₉ 20 22 23 24 25 26 2728 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 A 34 B C D E F G H I J _K L M N O P Q R _S T 21

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Fundamental Need for Travel

Global Total Mobility

100 1000

10000

100000

1000000

100 1000

10000

100000

1000000

GDP/cap, US$(1985)

Per

Capita

Traffic

Volume,

pkm

North America

Western Europe

Pacific OECD

Latin America

Eastern Europe

Former Soviet Union

Middle East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Other Pacific Asia

Target Point

Industrialized Regions

Reforming Regions

Developing Regions

Centrally Planned Asia

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World Scheduled Passenger

Traffic

Source: ICAO

World Rrevenue Passenger-Kilometers of Scheduled Service

0

500 1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

RPK (bn)

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Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers by Region

0

200

400

600

800 1000

1200

1400

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

RPK (bn)

North America

Europe

Asia and

Pacific

Latin America

& Caribbean

Middle East

Africa

Passenger Traffic by Region

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Historical Demand Trends with Economy

_{US GDP vs. RPMs: 1954-2001}

Source: US BEA and BTS data; Recession data from National Bureau of Economic Research

Original plot by Charlie Keegan, FAA

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Conceptual Model

Economy

Demand

Supply

Airlines

Revenue/Profitability

Pricing & Schedule

Financial Equity/

Debt Markets

Direct / Indirect / Induced employment effects

Travel/Freight

Need

Economic Enabling Effect

(Access to people / markets / ideas / capital)

Air Transportation System

Vehicle Capability

NAS

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Freight Tonne-Kilomters by Region

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

FTK (bn)

North America

Europe

Asia and

Pacific

Latin America

& Caribbean

Middle East

Africa

Air Freight by Region

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World Population Distribution

and Air Transportation Activity

Population Source:http://www.ciesin.org/datasets/gpw/globldem.doc.html

Air Transport Source: ICAO, R. Schild/Airbus

North America

38% Pax

27% Cargo

~40 Airlines

~4100 Airports

Latin America/

Caribbean

5% Pax

4% Cargo

~40 Airlines

~580 Airports

Europe

27% Pax

29% Cargo

~80 Airlines

~2400 Airports

Africa

2% Pax

2% Cargo

~20 Airlines

~300 Airports

Asia/

Pacific

25% Pax

34% Cargo

~60 Airlines

~1800 Airports

Middle East

3% Pax

4% Cargo

~12 Airlines

~230 Airports

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Hub and Spoke vs Direct

Networks

Completely Connected Network = 2(N-1) Flights

(eg., 50 Airports, 98 Flights)

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Fully Connected Network

Completely Connected Network = N(N-1)

(eg., 50 Airports, 2450 Flights)

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Demand Drives Frequency

Decreasing Aircraft Size

Ten Major US Carriers - Excludes Regional Jets

Source: DOT Form 41 Data

163

164

165

166

167

168

169

170

171

172 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

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Emergence of Regional Jets

CRJ 200 (50 seats)

ERJ 145 (50 seats)

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U.S. Regional Jet Growth

Source: FAA registration data from 1995 until the present

0

200

400

600

800 1000

1200

1995Q1

1995Q3

1996Q1

1996Q4

1997Q2

1997Q4

1998Q2

1998Q4

1999Q2

1999Q4

2000Q2

2000Q4

2001Q2

2001Q4

2002Q2

2002Q4

2003Q2

CRJ700 totals

CRJ200 totals

CRJ100 totals

EMB135 totals

EMB145 totals

BAE145 totals

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Regional Jet Deployments

May 1998

July 2000

August 2002

Source: OAG and ETMS data, 1998-2002.

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DFW Departures

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Proposed - Small Turbofan

Passenger Aircraft

Eclipse Jet

Cessna Mustang

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Proposed

Large Efficient Transport

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New Operational Class

-Unmanned Air Vehicles

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Safety Trends

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Source: ATA data

Impact of September 11

US Domestic RPMs

Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report

20

25

30

35

40

45

50 January

April

July

October

Traffic

(in

billions

of

RPMs)

2000

2001

2002

2003

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(Source: Avsoft)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 A340

727

737 737NG

747

767 _DC9

DC10

_MD80

CRJ

BAe 146

ATR 42

DHC8

EMB 120

F28

F100

Estimated 484 Aircraft Parked/Retired

Worldwide

Effective Modernization of the Fleet

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US Airline Load Factors 2000-2003

Source: ATA data

Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

January

April

July

October

Average Load Factor

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Annual Change in Average Domestic

_Fare

Source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report; 1000mi domestic trip (all classes); excludes WN

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

%

Change

vs

Prior

Year

2000

2001

2002

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Airline Profitability Impact

CASM

_RASM

9/11-9/13

_Time

$/ASM

Security costs

Quick Recovery

Insolvency

Slow Recovery

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All Major Carriers On “Slow Recovery”

Trajectory Except Southwest

Source: Airline reports

$(1,000)

$(800)

$(600)

$(400)

$(200)

$-$200

$400

$600

00-1Q 00-2Q 00-3Q 00-4Q 01-1Q 01-2Q 01-3Q 01-4Q 02-1Q 02-2Q

Quarterly Profit (Loss) in millions

AA

UA

DL

WN

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Market Cap: US Majors, 3/18/03

With Jet Blue

Southwest

69.9%

Delta

6.9%

United

0.4%

Continental

2.2%

Northwest

4.3%

Alaska

2.9%

US Airways

0.0%

ATA

0.3%

America

West

0.4%

American

1.7%

Jet Blue

11.2%

Total Market: $15.7 billion

Source: Yahoo! Finance. Includes ATA

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Current Market Cap vs. RPM Share

US Majors and ATA

Source: Yahoo! Finance and airline traffic reports

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Southwest SWA Flights

(8/7/02)

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American AAL Flights (8/7/02)

DFW 18%

ORD 12%

MIA 6%

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-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Macro Scale Drivers

US Airline Net Profit

Source: ATA

NB: 2001 data includes Air Trans Stabilization Act receipts

Deregulation

Cyclic Industry with Exponential Growth In Volatility Since Deregulation

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-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12 US Airlines Net Profit Model

Best Fit of Undamped Oscillation

Cycle Period = 11.3 yr eFolding Time = 6.3 yr

-(ATA)

Estimate

Predicted Losses

2003 $15.6 B

2004 $15.0 B

2005 $8.4 B

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-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Net Profit (Current US$B)

US

US Fit w/o 2001

September 11 Does not Significantly

Change Trend

Cycle Period = 12.1 yr eFolding Time = 7.6 yr

Analysis using only data before 2001

-(ATA)

Estimate

Predicted Losses

2003 $11.3 B

2004 $13.1 B

2005 $11.2 B

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-3 0

-2 0

-1 0

0

10

20

30

40

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12 Growth Limits

Constraints vs Damping

Downside: Financial

Upside: Capacity, Market

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Capacity Issues

US Flight Delays

ü

OPSNET National Delays

0 10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

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Capacity Limit Factors

ü Airport Capacity

o Runways

o Gates

o Landside Limits (including Security)

o Weather

ü Airspace Capacity

o Airspace Design

o Controller Workload

o Balkanization

ü Demand

o Peak Demand

o Hub & Spoke Networks

ü Environmental Limits

o Noise (relates to Airport)

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Airport System

Capacity Limit Factors

ü

Runways

ü Weather

o Capacity Variability

o Convective Weather

ü Landside Limits

o Gates

o Terminals

& Security

o Road Access

ü Downstream Constraints

ü Controller Workload

ü Environmental

o Community Noise

o Emissions

ü Safety

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Key Terminal System Flows

(adaptive system - impedance matching)

Gates

Add

Add’

’l Pax

l Pax

Screen

Ckd

Ckd Bag

Bag

Screen

Check-In

Drop-off

Parking

Airside

Landside

Passengers

Bags/Cargo

Ground

Transport

Pick-up

Parking

Security

Check

Gate

Boarding

Bag Claim

Security

Point

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CTX 9000 Explosive Detector

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Example EDS Before Ticketing

Check In

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Other Threats

Portable SAMs

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Source: 2000 US Statistical Abstract

Electronic Processing

ü

Airline Tickets #1 Web Product by Value

o Browser 1st page effect on marketing

ü

Increase in e-Tickets

o Interlining of e-Tickets

ü

Kiosk check-in

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US Internet Sales by Catagory

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1998 1999 2000 Y e a r USD Sales (Billion) Airline Hotel Car Rental PC's Books Software Apparel

Source: 2000 US Statistical Abstract

Distribution

ü

- Reduction in commissions to travel agents

ü

- Shift to e-tickets (additional charges for paper tickets)

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Environmental Issues

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Noise

Emissions

oStage 4 (Equipment)

oAirports (Capacity)

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Possibilities

• Technologies

• New Operating Paradigms

• New Airports

• New Vehicles

• New Markets

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Nano-Technology Example

“MICRO” Gas Turbines

“MICRO”

“MACRO”

10,000 parts

Inlet dia = 2 meters

Airflow = 500 kg/sec

Weight = 400 tons

Power output = 150 MW

2 parts

Inlet dia = 2 mm

Airflow = 0.25 g/sec

Weight = 1 gram

Power output = 10-50 watts

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Example ATC Operating Paradigm

Minimal Noise Procedures

MODE CONTROL PANEL (MCP)

COURSE IAS/MACH HEADING ALTITUDE VERT SPEED COURSE

3 6 10 17 FCS TRK M 8.9 NM 0623.7z KCOS CAGER WENNY FLOTS EHSI 0619.6z Clock MCP Status ALT V/S HDG SPD 5000 016 180 NOSE LEFT RIGHT Gear Status Flap Status UP 1 5 15 20 25 30 Marker Beacons EADI Speed Altitude PULL UP GND PROX MID INNER OUTER 030 36 GPWS Windscreen 5300 185 A/T IDLE VNAV CMD LNAV GS 193 2470 -200 Vertical Speed PRECIP WINDSHEAR WINDSHEAR AHEAD

CONTROL DISPLAY UNIT

CAGER WENNY WATKI! EKR 036 / 16.9 060 / 23.5 076 / 17.4 35000 / 350 30000 / 300 25000 / 250 20000 / 250

SPEED BRAKES, THROTTLES, FLAPS, GEAR PILOT'S CHAIR

CONTROL STICK DISPLAY

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3° Decelerating Approach

Existing ILS Approach

3° Decelerating Approach

(JFK 13L)

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Continuous Descent Approach

Louisville Flight Test

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Example ATC Operating Paradigm

UAV Operation

Manned

Commercial

Traffic

Satellite Relay

Satellite

Uplink

Ground

Station

_{Air Traffic}

Control

RF

Transmitter

(Direct RF

link limited to

LOS)

Current Air Traffic Environment

Unmanned Aerial

Vehicle

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Example ATC Operating Paradigm

Formation Approaches

Lateral vs Longitudinal Wake Vortex Separation

28L 28R

ü

Limited Reduction Possible in Longitudinal Separation due to Vortex Dynamics

o 20-30 % Throughput Improvement

ü

Lateral Position of Wake well known close to aircraft

ü

Close Dependant Parallel Approaches or Formation Approaches enabled by

accurate guidance technologies

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Example New Vehicle

Functionally Silent Commercial Aircraft

Noise signature conventional Aircraft:

• Sideline EPNL:

96.0 dB

• Cutback EPNL:

90.2 dB

• Approach EPNL:

98.5 dB

Silent Aircraft concepts are targeted to:

• Reduce airframe and propulsion noise by

20 to 30 dB

• Improve quality of life near airports

• Reduce the operating and societal cost of noise

• Enable growth of commercial air transportation

Wing-Tip

Treatment

Trailing Edge

Treatment

Laminar Flow

Technology

Ultra High-Bypass Ratio

Engines & Engine Air-Brake

Concepts

No High-Drag

Devices

What do we mean by “silent”?

ü

“Silent” means sufficiently quiet that aircraft noise is less than background noise in a well populated area

Heretofore unasked technical question - “what would an aircraft look like that had ...”

ü

Noise as a prime design variable?

ü

A design criterion which is a revolutionary step in noise reduction compared to present configurations?

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Example New Vehicle

Quiet Super-Sonic Business Jet

ü Market Study

o Range

u

Trans-Atlantic (required), Trans-Pacific (desirable)

o Supersonic over land highly desirable

ü Trans-Atlantic 8 - 15 passenger scheduled service viable

ü 15 Year Market

o 100 (Pessimistic) - 470+ (Optimistic)

Transcontinental

2500 nm

Transpacific

5000 nm

Transatlantic

3500 nm

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Aerodynamics - Sonic Boom

ü Boom shaping shows great promise

Source: Ruffin, MIT Presentation

ü Mitigate risk early with

demonstrator

o Boom shaping codes TRL

3-4 now*

o Bring up to 6-7 with

demonstrator

o Define “acceptable” levels

for boom

o Get FAA participation in

tests

Flight demonstrator reduces technological

and regulatory risk

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Example New Airports

Mega-Float Concept

Source: . www.mlit.go.jp/english/maritime/ mega_float.html

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Example New Markets

Air Transportation as Enabling Factor in

Developing Regions

Population Source:http://www.ciesin.org/datasets/gpw/globldem.doc.html

Air Transport Source ICAO, R. Schild/Airbus

North America

38% Pax

27% Cargo

~40 Airlines

~4100 Airports

Latin America/

Caribbean

5% Pax

4% Cargo

~40 Airlines

~580 Airports

Europe

27% Pax

29% Cargo

~80 Airlines

~2400 Airports

Africa

2% Pax

2% Cargo

~20 Airlines

~300 Airports

Asia/

Pacific

25% Pax

34% Cargo

~60 Airlines

~1800 Airports

Middle East

3% Pax

4% Cargo

~12 Airlines

~230 Airports

Infrastructure - Satellite Based Information Technologies have the

potential to allow regions with immature air transportation

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Air Transportation as Enabling

Factor in Developing Regions

Economy

Demand

Supply

Airlines

Revenue/Profitability

Pricing & Schedule

Financial Equity/

Debt Markets

Direct / Indirect / Induced employment effects

Travel/Freight

Need

Economic Enabling Effect

(Access to people / markets / ideas / capital)

Air Transportation System

- The Air Transportation Industry has an obligation to find economic models which

support investment and economic development in these regions.