Conference Presentation
Reference
Social MARKAL: Incorporating behavioral parameters
KANALA, Roman
Abstract
Shifting the modelling scale from original country model formulation down to region, city, community brings new challenges on modelling the demand side. Increasing number of decision makers making frequent decisions on small amounts, often without information, do not always behave rationally. An approach to address a systematic error of about 30% is presented. Energy consumer behaviour is measured by sociological surveys and included into model via additional equations as virtual technologies.
KANALA, Roman. Social MARKAL: Incorporating behavioral parameters. In: IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme Workshop, New Delhi, India, 18-23 January 2010, 2010
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Social MARKAL:
Incorporating behavioral parameters
Roman Kanala
Haute école de gestion Genève
Models based on economic equilibria
1. hypothesis of perfect information
2. hypothesis of perfect economic rationality
Technology alone cannot explain all the changes.
Behaviour is an important factor of change.
Information, rationality
Country
Region City Community
Model scale
Number of decision makers, subjectivity
Production side: centralized decisions
Demand side, decentralised
Issue of perfect information
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Issue of perfect information
Issue of
perfect economic rationality
One third of people don’t have low consumption bulbs or don’t know.
Issue of
perfect economic rationality
While people consider economic parameters first, almost a third of importance is given to non-economic properties.
Haute Ecole de Gestion, Genève
• Business school, Social research, LEM – Laboratoire d’étude de marché
• Behavioural studies:
– Awareness Programs
informed people change their behaviour more easily
– Economy of Scope
Informed people how to better use existing technology apply their skills rather than a technology switch
– Social behaviour
willingness / resistance to take optimal decisions
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Social MARKAL
• MARKAL, MARKAL-MACRO, MIP, Stochastic MARKAL, MARKAL-ED, MARKAL-Micro, TIMES
• A new research opportunity: Social MARKAL
- embedding both technological and behavioural contributions - collecting data: surveys, social experiments
- measuring the importance of
o habitus
o willingness / resistance to change
o environmental awareness / sensitivity
- identifying drivers, looking for ways to influence them
Unconstrained MARKAL
Economic rationality is pushing to replace immediately all incandescent bulbs by low consumption bulbs
With bounds
Modeler can set up bounds on technologies to better describe the real behaviour.
Social MARKAL
Using marketing process technologies
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Introducing process technologies:
marketing
Social MARKAL Protocol
• Generating hypotheses, awareness campaign design to remove barriers for a change
• Testing hypotheses: sociological survey
• Constructing behavioural change scenarios
• Introducing data into MARKAL, scenarios
Paper published on SSRN.com
Socio-Markal (Somarkal): First Modeling Attempts in the Nyon Residential and Commercial Sectors Taking into Account Behavioural Uncertainties
Emmanuel Fragniere , Roman Kanala , Denis Lavigne , Francesco Moresino , Alexandre De Sousa , Cedric Cubizolle , Christian Decurnex and Gustave Nguene
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1522143
