Evaluation of census and other demographic data available in the republic of Tunisia

UNITED NATIONS

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL

TDTstr.

LIMITED

E/CN.J.4/POP/87

13 July 1973 ENGLISH'

Original: FRENCH

1>

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA ■

Seminar on Techniques of Evaluation

of Basic Demographic Data

Accra, Ghana., 19-28 July 1973

EVALUATION OF CENSUS AND OTHMi DEMOGRAPHIC' DATA AVAILABLE IK THE REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA

73-1674

^VALUATION OF CENSUS aND OTHLK DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

; IN'THE REPUBLIC OF "TUNISIA

The programme of work, of EGA for 1974 to 1976 includes the evalua tion of census and other demographic.data available in selected African countries. This paper, which deals specifically with the Republic of Tunisia, falls within the scope of this study programme.. It is composed of two main parts: The first part represents an attempt to present and assess" the demographic data available in the Republic of Tunisia. To this end,rit contains an exhaustive-inventory of existing demographic information and an evaluation of -its quality and reliability. The second part relates to the use made of demographic, information, particularly m the elaboration of economic and social development plans.

1. Demographic Data Available in the Republic of Tunisia

2. In this first part of the paper, an attempt will be made, .in so far as possible, to describe all the demographic information available in the Republic of Tunisia: information on the size of the population and its distribution by sex, age, environment and-region and data on population growth (fertility, mortality/ migration, etc.) .It will also deal with-the ouality of information by considering the sources of data, methods of collection and the various precautions taken in the preparation of data.

1.1 Inventory of available data

3. On the basis of the documentation in the Population Programme Centre it appears that the following information has been collected on the demo

graphic situation in Tunisia!

1.1.1 Total population and its distribution by sex, age, marital.status

and region. - '

4. These data indicate that in 1966 the total---po>ulation of the Republic

of Tunisia was 4-5 million. It was "estimated at 4-8 million in 1967 and should now be in the neighbourhood of 5.6. million. In 1966, 515S of the population was male and the ratio does ,not appear to have changed in 1973.

With regard to distribution by environment, on 1966, 40.1$ of the popula tion lived in an urban environment, but apparently more recent information on the distribution of the population by environment does not exist.

, "■> ■ ■ "

5. The distribution "of the.population by region indicates that the Governorate of Tunis - the most densely populated - accounted for 17-,42yo of t.he total population in 1966. The Governorate of ■Sousse fcame second with 154,666 inhabitants, or 11.75# of the population of Tunisia. £ach of the remaining Governorates accounted for less than 10$ of the total

population. - . .

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6, Age distribution data describe the population not only by broad age groups, which indicate the pre-school age, school age and active populations, but also by sex and individual years of age. Lastly, some tables give the distribution of the Tunisian population by marital status

and show that, in 1966, 60.4 out of every 100 persons were single, 35-1

were married and 4.5 were widowed, divorced or unspecified.

7. The number of single and married persons of both sexes was very close in 1966. However, there- were 4.6 times more widowed or divorced women .

than men. It would appear that these are still the only figures available

on marital status in the Republic of Tunisia. Details of the available tables on the distribution of the population by sex, age, environment and marital status are as follows: ,

Table 1 - Total population distribution by sex, Governorate and

.residential environment (urban or rural);

Table 2 - Total population distribution by sex and individual years of age;

Table 3 - Population distribution by individual years of age and Governorate;

■ . Table'4 - Mean and median age of the population by sex and Governoratej

Table 5 - Population distribution by age group and marital status;

Table. 6 - Population distribution by marital status, sex and

Governorate.,

These tables, which outline the basic situation in 1966, have been used

for a series of population estimates and projections which have provided the following information:

- Estimates and projections of Tunisia's population for the period 1967-2000; .

- Number and percentage-of women in Tunisia between the ages of .15 and 49 for the period 1967-2000; ' .

- Estimates and projections of the pre-school age population

(under 6 years of age) for the period 1967-2000;

- Estimates and projections of the primary school age population

(6 to 11 years) for the period 1967-2000; '

- Estimates and projections of the secondary school age popula tion (12 to 18 years) for the period 19^7-2000;

- Estimates and projections of the economically active population (15 to 64 years) for the period 1967-2000;

- Estimates and projections of the retirement age population (65

years and over) for the period 1967-2000;-

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Page 3

- Estimates and projections of the percentage distribution of the Tunisian population by "broad age groups for the periovd .

. 196.7-2000; . . '*■*.".

- Estimates and projections of the. dependency ratio in Tunisia

for the period 1967-2000.

8. Apart from this inforniation, which describes various aspects of

the population structure in the Republic of Tunisia, the following information is available on population growth:

1.1.2 Natural population growth rate data

9- The following information is available in the fiepublic of Tunisia

concerning population growth:

(a) Annual births

10. This heading covers the number of births by sex, environment and Goverhorate and in the Kepublic of Tunisia as a whole. It reveals 'that,

in 1967» 6,042 births were registered, of which 3,015 were males and

3,027 females. Of the total number of births, 2,085 occured in the urban and 35957 in the.rural environment.

11. With regard to the distribution of.births by Governorate, Sousse

was in first place with 8l8 births. It was followed by the Governorates of.Tunis (713 bir-ths), Sfax (647 births) and Gafsa (583 births) respec

tively. The number of births registered in each of the other Governo

rates was less than 8$ of the total.

(b) Specific birth rates

12. . The rates given in the documents available in the Population Programme Centre have been calculated by environment and Governorate and for the Republic of Tunisia as a whole.

13- In 1967, the crude birth rate for the country as a whole was 4.215&.

Tho administrative units of the Governorates of Tunis" and Sousse did not havev the highest birth rates despite the particularly large number of births. The Governorates of Kasserine, Kef and Gafsa had the highest

birth rates with 47.4, 47 and 46.9 births per thousand respectively.

The urban birth rate was 38 per thousand as against a rural rate of ,45.1

per thousand. . ' .

(c) Annual deaths

14. ■ The number, of deaths -in I967 was recorded by sex, environment and Governorate and for the Republic of Tunisia as a whole. According to the documents available in the Population Programme Centre, 1,830 deaths were .recorded in the Kepublic of Tunisia in 1967. Of these,

277 occurred in the Governorate of Sousse, I85 in that, of Gafsa and :.

179 in that of Sfax. . ■

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15- With, regard to the distribution of deaths by environment, 558

deaths were registered .in the urban environment as' against 1,272 in

the rural environment.. The number of• deaths, in the female population was lower than that in the male population (709 as against ,1,021).

There is nothing noteworthy about the age-specific death rate since the number of deaths by age follows- the normal'pattern.

(**■) Specific- death rates ,

16. On the basis of the number of annual deaths- given above, deatii '■

rates were calculated for the'different groups, by sex, age, environ ment and Governorate andfor'the Republic of Tunisia as, a whole.

Mortality tables were also prepared by sex and environment. Informa tion is also available on child mortality.

17- Calculations based on the birth and death rates established following post-census surveys- have determined the natural growth- rate of the population in the Republic of Tunisia as a whole and in each of

its 13 Governorates. The natural population growth1 rate in the country as a whole is equivalent to 2.94$>> ■

18. Another basic factor in natural population movement in Tunisia are the age-specific fertility rates. Information on this subject, as on others, dates back to 1967'

19- Below is an exhaustive list—'of tables relating to natural popu lation movement in Tunisia: ■ \ , ■

Table 1 - Annual" births by environment, Governorate'and sex of the child;

Table 2 - Annual ..leaths by Governorate and in the country as a whole;

■Table 3 - Annual deaths in the population under one year of age by Governorate and in the country as a whole;

Table 4 - Crude birth rate by Governorate;

Table 5 - Crude death rate by Governorate and in the country

as a -whole; ■ ■ ;

Table 6 - Crude natural population growth rate by Governorate and in ,the country as .a whole;

Table 7 -■ infant mortality rate by-Governorate and in the .

country as a .whole; .

, Table 8 - Age-specific fertility rates' by environment and Governorate.and in the country as a whole;'

Table 9 - Mortality tables by sex and residential environment

. (urban/rural). '

l/ Exhaustive list derived .from the documents in the ii;CA Popula

tion Programme Centre.

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Page 5

20. On the basis of the above data, a number of other figures, were

worked out relating to: .

Observed and corrected birtbsand birthrates in Tunisia:

1961-1969;, ■

Crude "birth, death an'd natural growth rates in Tunisia for both sexes, period of projections; 1967-2000.

1.1-3 Migration data

21. One section of the report issued following the population census

of 3 May 1966 was devoted to migration (section. Wo. 3). The section

contained figures relating to each Governorate and to the country as a whole. Nevertheless, in order to enable researchers to make use of the figures available for smaller administrative divisions, an annex to the section gives the distribution of migrants ty Governorate of census according to their place of origin. Section 3 itself is composed of four chapters;

(a) The first chapter deals with the magnitude of migration

22. The following data have been collated in the chapter and are

•therefore available .on migration in the 'hepublic of Tunisia;

- Percentage of migrants and non-migrants in-the population covered, by the census;

- Proportional distribution of migrants and non-migrants 'in the population covered by the census by sex and Governorate

(per 10,000 persons covered by the census in each Governorate);

- Proportional distribution of the migrant and non-migrant population by sex according to the Governorate covered by

the census (per 10,000 migrants or non-migrants.);

- Migrant population on the basis of. internal migration within the Governorate, external migration and international migra tion by Governorate of residence;

- Migrant population on the oasis 'of internal migration within the Governorate, external migration and. international migration

by Governorate ^of residence (1,000 migrants covered by the census in the Governorate);

- Migration balance amcng Governoratesj

- Foreign-born migrants by Governorate of residence..

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(b) Chapter 2 deals with the place of origin and residence

of migrants. ■ .

."23- Four tables were prepared for this chapter. The first gave the distribution of the population by sex, Governorate of origin and Gover nora.te of residence. The second table gave the proportional distribu tion of migrants by Governorate.of residence according to the Governo

rate of origin (for persons who emigrated from the Governorate). The ■

third table in chapter 2 gave the proportional distribution of migrants by Governorate of residence according to the Governorate of origin for the entire migrant population. Lastly, the fourth table gave the

proportional distribution of migrants by Governorate of origin accord-' ing to the Governorate of residence.

(c) The third chapter dealt with the year of migration ■ . •

24'. " The following data are available in this chapter:

- Migrant population by year of migration, sex and Governorate of census;

- Long-standing and recent migration;

- Proportional.distribution of the migrant population by length of residence and Governorate of census. . I

(d) The last chapter dealt with the age'of migrants

25* It contains, the.following information:

- Migrant population by age group, sex and Governorate of census;

'— Migration rates by age-

- Proportional distribution of the migrant population by age

coinpared to the population as a whole (per thousand);

- Mean age of the migrant.population by sex and Governorate;

- Migrant population age pyramid for Tunisia as a whole-

This is apparently the'information available on migration in the Republic

of- Tunisia. ■ . . ■ ■

1.1.4 Divorce rate data '

26. Another section of the 1966 census report contains the following information on divorces in the'Republic of,Tunisia:

- Divorce dynamics in Tunisia by month and divorce court;

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.— Distribution of divorces according to. previous marital status of the divorced persons;.

- Distribution of divorces according to the nationality of the-

spouses;

- Distribution of divorces according to the plaintiff in the

■divorce suit and the length of the marriage;

- Distribution of divorces according to previous marital status and the length of the dissolved marriage;

■ - Distribution of divorces according to. the age group of both

j. - . spouse(s;

i ■ - .

; - Distribution of divorces according to the age group of the male . spouse and the length of the dissolved marriage;

- Distribution of divorces according to the age gj'oiip of the

[ .-_ female spouse.

In addition to these basic data on the distribution of divorces in

; Tunisia, other tables were annexed to this., section of the report that [ ' gave fuller details on the divorce rate in Tunisia. . .

1.1.5 Household data .

27. Following the 1966 census, the Republic of Tunisia published information concerning households which, is contained in the fourth part' of the report.1 This information covers inter alia:

! ■ ■■■■••

j - Distribution of households according to household size and

■ Governorate; ' .

! -Distribution of households in the.urban and rural environments

' according to the type of activity of the head of the household;

: * -- Distribution of households' according to the type of activity of

! the head of the household and Governorate;

- Distribution of the household population according to size of.

household and Governorate;

, ' - Distribution of households in the urban and rural environments

j according to the type of activity and sex of the head of the

= . . household; .. v

! - Mean number of persons per household,in the .urban and rural

; environments according to the type of activity of the head

• of the household;

:! . ■ ■ ■ ■ - ■ ■

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- Distributionof'households according to the professional, group to which the head of the household belongs by Cover-

. norate; ■ r .

- Household population according to the type of activity and professional group of the head of the household by Governorate;

- Mean number of persons per household according to the'profes- . sional group of the head of the household; / - Distribution of households according to the branch of activity

of the head of the household by Governoratej

. - Household population according to the branch of activity of

the head of the household and Governorate; j

1.

- Mean number of persons ].er household according to the branch . . of activity of the head of the household;

- distribution of households according to the type of occupation of the head of the household by Governorate;

'( ■ ■ •

- Household population according to the type of occupation of the head by Governorate;

- Mean number of persons per household according to the type ' ' of occupation of the head of the household ' '

Also annexed are other tables that were worked out on the basis of_ the *

above-mentioned basic' tables. All the information on households is

grouped together in the fourth part of the 1966 census report.

28. As well as the purely demographic data given above, Tunisia also has data on the economic characteristics of, the population. The third part' of the 1966 census, report described the structure of the active population." In addition, another part of the report reproduced infor mation on various housing characteristics in Tunisia.

29- This constitutes ah inventory of the demographic 'information available in the Republic of Tunisia'. The inventory is certainly not exhaustive, for other information must have been collected on the demo graphy of Tunisia since the 1966 census. In the absence of the relevant documentation, however, this study is confined to the data available at

the Population Protramme Centre. ■ _

30. One of the purposes of the inventory is to bring to light, through discussion, other demographic data available in the Republic of Tunisia that have not yet been transmitted to the* Population Programme Centre.

The problems of the late publication and dissemination of demographic information will be discussed at a subsequent stage.

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1*2 Quality of the demographic data available in the Republic of Tunisia

31. An-impression can be gained of the quality of the demographic'

information available in the Republic of Tunisia from studying (a) the souroes of the data, (b) the methodology used, ('c).the precautions taken

to avoid errors during' the collection and'extraction stages, (d) the

form of results,and (e) the time-lag between the collection and the

publication of results.

1.2.1' Sources of data

32. The quality of the demographic data quoted in this paper is

satisfactory. They are in fact'derived partly from population censuses .

and partly from demographic surveys or analytical studies baaed on

surveys and censuses.

33. The Republic of Tunisia differs from many African countries where1' most of the .data on population structure and growth are merely estimates based on administrative censuses and incomplete civil registers. Below is a review of the various sources of the demographic information men

tioned in this paper.

1.2.1.1. Population censuses

34* One of Tunisia's .merits in the field of demographic research is that it has held a series of seven population censuses, the' first of . N which dates back to 1921. The technical conditions in which these

censuses were carried out were- satisfactory; careful preparation,

qualified personnel and field work: preceeded in each case by a' pilot

census. The instructions used by census workers, survey supervisors and other personnel during the censuses were carefully drawn up and

as complete as possible. Similarly, concepts were clearly defined. For the 1966 census.;, these definitions were reproduced in the introduction to the first section of the census report. Another important advantage of the Tunisian censuses is.that the results do not appear to have been intentionally altered by the political authorities.

1.2.1.2. Demographic surveys

35* The second source of the data given in this document is the 1967

national survey of the Republic of Tunisia. Information in the survey

covers fertility, mortality and natural population growt'hl Here again, the source of the information is of a high quality. The sampling frame is all the more remarkable in so far as it is based on the 1966 census

results. , ■ ■

1

1.2,1-3. Analytical studies of the demographic situation in the

Republic of Tunisia

36. It would be irksome to reproduce the complete list of all the

studies made on the basis of fundamental demographic data. Suffice it

to say that they were.all undertaken by competent' persons or institutions,

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Page 10

One .example is the study .on the evaluation and' projection of the population of the Republic of Tunisia covering the. period 1967-2000 that has just been published by the Department of Commerce of the

United States Government. Among others there is. a study on projections of the population of Tunisia between 1966 and 1986 made in September

1968 by,the National Statistical Office.

1.2.2. Methods

37* The methods used in- the censuses were in- no way special. Tradi tional methodology, based on the household schedule, was used. In the surveys, multi-stage sampling was used. The methodology was proven by the caliber of the planners who put it into practice and the consis tency of*the results. Both in the case of censuses and surveys, the results were of such probability that it would be difficult to dispute the methods used. For example, the results derived from the projections made for the preparation of the second plan, which were based on the already dated data of the 1956 census,were almost identical with those later obtained from the 1966 census. With such consistency," the methods used in the population censuses and demographic surveys in Tunisia can

hardly be criticised. . ■

1.2.3- Precautions taken during the collection and extraction of data.

38. Precise instructions were prepared for the use of interviewers during the preparation and collection of data- These instructions

were tested before work began in the field. Extraction was by computer, which avoided mathematical errors. Coherence and probability tests were made' to ensure the quality of results. Post-census controls were imple mented. The control for the 1966 census took the form of the 1967

national survey. "

1.2.4* Time-lag between censuses ana surveys and the publication of

■ results

39- The time factor is important as far as the usefulness of results is concerned. A census or survey may have all the requisite technical qualities as. far as the organization and execution of the various phases are concerned without the results being ultimately of great value, such as when the results are published only long after the field work has been'earned out..

40. The length of the time-lag in the publication of the censuses and demographic surveys undertaken in the Republic of'Tunisia has not been established. It is, however, known that the primary purpose of the I966 census was to provide the demographic information required for the. preparation of the second plan. It would nevertheless appear that the information was not available at the time when the plan was being prepared. This fact must have diminished the usefulness of the census results.

Page 11

41. Another problem,renting to, population census results and other demographic data collected in African countries is the particularly restricted distribution given to the available documents-.It is not.,

* rare to find t:hat a person working on a given-subject is. unaware o± , the existance of other documentation on-the subje.pt. As regards the ._,- inventory of demographic data available in the Republic of Tunisia,_the.

* national technical services will certainly have fuller and definitely. ..

more recent data than that given.in this paper.

1.2.5. The presentation of available data

42. This is another basic factor that affects the quality of infor mation. The Republic of Tunisia seems fully to appreciate_the xrapact ot - the problem. It presented the results of the 1966 census in various sections; each of which related to a well defined area. Thus, section . I contained global data and detailed data on the size of the population and its distribution by.sex, age and marital status. *A11 the basic; data

* on this subject required for the preparation of plans are contained in this section. Section II contains the necessary information on the

geographical distribution of the population: distribution by Governorate, cheickah and commune. -Section III is composed of■a detailed study of migration. Similarly,, the other volumes of the census report and the 1967 national survey report contain precise information on a particular ;

sphere of demography. ■ ■

43. Attention has been drawn to the presentation of documents because raany countries" in the region merely publish partial results for admini strative units when they have conducted a population census. Partial presentation of. results makes the use of demographic data .difficult.

It is difficult for anyone to gather together at the same time all the partial reports on the various demographic questions he is called upon to analyze. Bad'presentation of the results, may, therefoie, be one reason why demographic data are not used in plan preparation and imple- .

mentation control.

44. Mention should also be made of the extent to which the demographic data contained in the census reports and surveys are refined., Some demographic reports and surveys merely present overall data that is more or less usable. No effort is made to analyze or refine the basic data.

The- result is that planners do not find demographic data-in a form, that is relevant to them and, therefore, completely ignore what is in. the reports. They just rely on their imaginations to secure the data they

need.

45. For its part, the'Republic of Tunisia has tried to present the results in the way required for planning. Analyses have been carried out on the basis of certain correlations ;and regression ligns. The \ results are thus sufficiently detailed to enable 'planners easily to

decide where.to locate certain projects.

E/CN.14/P0P/87 Page' 12

1-2.6. Time-lag between collection and publication of results

46. Enough, has been said of this problem in the foregoing paragraphs.

The length of the time-lag in the Republic of Tunisia is not known.

It is hoped that discussions involving well informed persons will provide clarification. Meantime, the second part of the study will be devoted to consideration of the demographic data used in the preparation of the second plan in the Republic of Tunisia.

II. DEMOGRAPHIC DATA USED IN THE PREPARATION OP THE SECOND. PLAN IN THE . REPUBLIC OS TUNISIA ■

47* Faced with such a complex and voluminous document as a development plan.in whose preparation a variety of techniques are used, it is diffi cult to identify which statistics were essential to the preparation of . the plan and which were not. In fact, planners do not usually indicate the basic statistics they use to work out the various population growth models. It is nevertheless a fact that development plans cannot be drawn up without a minimum of statistical information. In the field of demography, such statistics are the size of the population, its distri bution by region, by sex and by age, data on fertility, mortality, education,, employment and manpower, migration and general population' growth. The use made of such information in the preparation of plans, of course, varies'from country to country and according to the obje ctives of the plan.

48. In some countries, population is considered a decisive factor in the welfare of mankind and these countries, therefore, make the maximum use of demographic information in the preparation of their plans. Other countries, whilst not totally disregarding the impact of population growth- on economic growth, do not attach as much importance to the demographic factor as the other group of countries. The Republic of Tunisia for its part attaches particular importance to the demographic factor in defining the growth hypotheses and models used in its deve lopment plans.

49* - The Republic of Tunisia is in fact one of the African countries that has'an official population policy. Its 1965-1968 four year plan contains the following passage: • .

"... The population of Tunisia is characterized by:

, ; (l) a high birth rate in the order of- 44 per 1000;

''■ :; .(2) a high death rate in the ordex of 20 per■ 1000, which is,

however, showing a clear downward trend.

" The only one way to reduce the growth rate and check- national ■ population growth is to reduce the birth rate. Since independence, raising the standard of living and developing education and culture

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1 have been considerations that call for voluntary birth control and will "continue to do so.

"It is., however, necessary >to take action at the-national level

tc educate the populace in tais matter and to encourage'it to practice • self-control' .? :> ' ■

"To'this end, the Government decided to institute a two-phase family planning programme: (l) an,experimental phase of two years' duration, to be implemented in two urban and six rural regions, (2) an extension phase ..."

50. In addition to Tunisia's official population programme, which illustrates the importance which the country attaches to population problems, it should be noted'that one of the three volumes of Tunisia's four year plan is devoted to the advancement of mankind. This is further proof of the fact that the Tunisian authorities accord the population factor a preponderant place in economic development. It. is easy to

identify .the population statistics used in the preparation of this volume.

U-l Demographic data used in the preparation of the second plan in the

Republic of Tunisia

51* As has been stated above, no pretence can be made of providing an exhaustive list of the statistics used in the preparation of a: plan.. The following list contains only those data which are known to have been used in the preparation of Tunisia's second plan. They are: . .' ■

- Total population; ' . ' " ■

■ ,. r: . ■ -r Distribution; of the total population by region (Governorate, i> Cheickah-and commune); .

'■ ~--r Distribution of the population by sex and age; ' •

-■■Distribution by broad age groups (active, school age and

retirement .age population)? !' —

- Distribution of the population by nationality; . . - :

- Birth rates in 1964 and 1968;

■ - - Death rates in 1964 and 1968; '

- Natural-population growth rates in'1964 and 1968;

■• - ■ -International migration (immigration and emigration);

-• ': - Balance of migration in I96.4 and 1968;'

-.■: ■■"•^-•.Development-of births by nationality from. 1955 to 1963;

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Page- 14

- Fertility-rates in 1964' and 1968; '

- Development of deaths ,*y nationality from 1955 to 1963,

- Projections of Tunisia's population by sex and broad age

group between 1963 and 1969-

. - - Population development by Governorate from 1963 to 1969; —

- Size of the active population by sex, age and nationality in

1964 and 1968;

*-' Labour force participation rates by sex and' age in 1964 and

;'. ■ ;•■ 1968; . ■ " ■ ; ■■"■■■

■■- Distribution of the total employed population "by branch of ■

activity in 1964 and 1968$ ■ * -

-School enrolment in 1964 and 1968 "by sex. and for the two sexes;

- Enrolment rates in 1964 and 1968 by sex and for the two sexes;

- Data on the'level of education. ■

In addition to these data that are known to have been used in the prepa ration of the: second plan, other data must have been used, particularly in the sections dealing with urbanization and housing, health and

maternal and child care.

52. These sections must have made use of data on the number, 'size and regional distribution of- households, infant mortality (infant mortality rates), still births (still birth rates), abortions (percentage of

abortions), etc. It can thus be seen that, demographic data have been of great service to planners in the Uepuolic of Tunisia. It would be no exaggeration to say that the second development plan, and more . ■ particularly the third volume thereof, could not have been prepared __

without demographic data.

II-2. Demographic Data not used in the preparation of Tunisia's

Second Plan . '■ ■ ' ■

53. The fact that certain data we're not used in the preparation of a plan does not mean that they are useless. Data which are not used in the preparation of'a'plan may be essential for supervising its implemen tation or may be of use in the preparation of subsequent plans. In the

case of the Republic of Tunisia, the results .of the 1966 population

census were not used in the preparation of the second plan not because they were not necessary, but simply, because they were not available.

Yet thej must h'ave been used in supervising the implementation of the plan and-will also be used in.the preparation o'f future plans,.just as data from the 1956 census were used in Tunisia's second plan. Those data

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Page'15

are unutilized .in the sense, that the. second plan could have been prepared whether or hot they .existed. S3uch data include: ' .

Divorce rate data >

54. The information collected on this matter during the 1966 census>

does not appear to have -been used in the economic growth model in the

Tunisian plan, unless the planners took care- to conceal the way in which

they used it. * , ■ •

Distribution of the population by ethnic group

55* This information too, does not appear to have been used in the preparation of the seoond plan, subject to the reservations made- con;- ■ ■ cerning divorce rate data.

Distribution of the population by religion

56. Compare the comments and reservations concerning divorce rates and ethnic groups.

Internal migration • ' ,

57. The second plan of the Republic of Tunisia does not appear to have made use of the information on internal migration. If the non- utilization of data relating to internal migration should be confirmed 'by authoritative sources, it might be attributable to one of the follow

ing two causes:

- Either the data on internal migration were not available and could not, therefore, be used' in'the preparation of the plan;

- Or they were available but were not needed in view of the plan's objectives and the growth model .used.

The- second, would seem the more likely possibility,, for the objectives of ^the plan do not explicitly include redistribution'of the population

throughout the territory. . - . .

58. Apart from the hypothesis concerning.the non-utiliaation of migration data, consideration should be given to the causes of the nom-utilization of certain demographic data in a number of development plans in general and in that of the Republic ofTunisia in particular.

II.3- Causes of the non-utilization of demographic data in. the prepara tion and implementation of development plans in African countries

59. There are various causes. Firstly, there is the non-availability of data- .This cause has already beenpointed out-in the case of. Tunisia.

The 1966 census was launched to facilitate the preparation and implemen tation of Tunisia's second plan, but the results were not available, at the time when the plan was being prepared. Accordingly, they could not

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be UBed in the. planning stage. The first chapter of volume 3 of Tunisia's second plan states:

"The more precise our demographic statistics are, the more realistic and reliable these sectoral forecasts will be-

In Tunisia, however, efforts to improve our statistical information meet with several difficulties which derive from the1quantitative inadequacy of the statistical machinery...

. In'view of such lacunae in our statistics, it is difficult*

to establish the annual population growth rate.of the'Tunisian population as precisely as would be wished..." ■ ,

Further on, speaking about the 1966 population census, the author of the

plan says: *■ '

■.■*.'

. "...It will enable us to have more precise information on the population".

, ■.*■■ ■■

Like Tunisia, many African countries make no or little use of demo graphic information because it is not available. Secondly, the fact ' that the available demographic data are not known is another cause of their non-utilization. This phenomenon has already been discussed in the first part of this study. 'v Suffice it to say that this pheno menon exists and may be one of the causes of the non-utilization of

demographic data- As far as the Republic of Tunisia' is concerned,

it is impossible to say whether demographers make every effort to publicize the results of their work as quickly as possible.

60. Thirdly, mention should be made of the fact that available demo graphic data are. difficult to use because they are not sufficiently refined and are badly presented. Tunisian demographic data are suffi

ciently refined and at least'fairly well presented.

61.- Last, but not least, a further reason-why available demographic da"ta are not used in African countries is that they are not in confor- mity with the views held by political leaders on the demographic situa tion in their country. ' Certain demographic data in some countries are held as false despite rigorous collection methods*. The political authorities1 rejection of results, is due to the fact that they'do not correspond to their view of the demographic situation in the country.

In such circumstances, plans are prepared and implemented irrespective of the results of demographic studies. The demographic data thus included in the plans are merely figments of the imagination of the political authorities. Luckily, the Republic of Tunisia does not appear to be in this predicament. The demographic data used in the plan a'ppear to be consistant with the results obtained by demographers.^

62. In the li.^ht of this review of demographic information and Tunisian planning, it is appropriate to draw certain conclusions about the impor- tance of demographic 'data in the country, as regards the quantity -of demographic information available in the Republic of Tunisia, it may be said that the information'covers a fairly broad field. It includes

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data on population structure - sex, age, maxital status, etc. - and information on fertility, mortality and migration. There are also data on the divorce rate, households and the economic characteristics of

households.

63. The quality of the^information is satisfactory, bearing in mind the sources and methods used and more generally, the precautions taken

by Tunisian demographers during the collection and extraction of data.

64. In the eyes of Tunisian planners, demographic information has

an important role to play. It is given the greatest attention in the preparation of plans. The only cloud'on this, rosy horizon is the fact that demographic data are not available at the appropriate time. It • seems that once results are available, they are not distributed rapidly.

Tunisian demographers seem to be aware of these problems and no doubt

these difficulties will be overcome in future demographic results. The

Republic of Tunisia is definitely one of the African countries whose demographic information has' relatively few defects.