Distr.
LIMITED
/4//5
30 April 1969 Original: MGLISHECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
Seminar on Application of Demographio Data and Analysis to Development Planning Addis Ababa, 2-9 June 1969
DMOGEAPHIC CONTENT OF AFEICAN DEVELOPMfflT PLANS
M69-1356
DEMOGRAPHIC CONOTT OF AFEICAK DEVELOPMENT PLANS-
■/■•"■•■:■■:#&&■recognition-, of the imperatives of-change of economic afrd social structure in the African, countries is now reflected./ in their national
.development:: {pi arts. :, The population of a country .is. as much an agent as
the beneficiary-of any planned', economic and social development undertaken.
In any. development plan, therefore,; the population whosfe advancement is planned for mupt be given due attention," ^nd the population factor
made an.integral part of j;he planning;:propers', and not. merely.."an
exogenous factor to.be' taken- acoaunTTSf. The, purpose, of this "paper
'is''^Q^re^iew;),-in'-'$k%s1 ^gen-er&l- setti-ng^'^V-.-de|tiogf^^Li'cVi0*3^?1^ °£ :- $$$■
development' plans of■' the AfMcan^vGOt^ii:i'es.,--and-: attempt" an''assessment
-in-":.the':;light ■■of- available iThe' dembkrafehic situation in Africa:-;;- "• ■' - :-\'.■—■■■_■ ■•■-v. ..■■■■■■■ -. •
With about 22 per cent of; the total land area of the world Africa
had a,;!total* population of 335inillipn. in mid-19$8-or about 10 per cent
of the wofltLf:s population* The: extreme, unevenness of the distribution of population among the"different countries is shown by;'table 1. On ..:..,.»^.:- :.■_.::....:..".. .■::■. .,.., ,. .Tab-le-1 '..- -: .-.r- ]', :"'^?.'-?.:.'■'".. -'-'.-.-■ '.-, ■Dis\ri'bution of African countries/areas ao'cording to total :
Population' In ;'midL "'Number....of ;;;. '■ -. ■..Total population
countriesAreas-- (minionl: .^tei^on
0,4 - 1.6 1,6""-. 3.6
.3,6.rr'?.5'- -I
7? 5; and above'
■ ' ' -■Total ■ ■". ;
12
11 . ' 8 :.-
14:.v." 21-.5-
:'V 0.6
■ .6.4 -'20.3
■51 334. ■100.0
gource: the
"Table 2
.Situation-:in A"fri:oartV'
one extreme are;i'as.imj.as;p aoresy'with-population- of up to 3*6 - million each whose'total populaiiioh forms only about 10 'per cent of Africa;1 s-;tptal,'w|iil/^:pn:':'the other;, extreme are-12 areas each of-which has a population of over"7 million whose total population makes tip as' much.as/.abput^JO; per'Gent/Qf-:;Afri.G,a^s total--■ In-1968 only .10; ■"■■■,
afl'rpppula-tion ;o£ 10; milliontor -more; iu/.^iiPa-i'-'^F^^.-o^"•■•■■
ija.Kprth_Africa," 3_,i,n-.East;;and bn0reach in ■West,' Central';.. -■
and ^Southern Africa. . ' ■': ";.C';.': ">■"■. '.,"■■-'■-. ■"..- -■'.. ': -■-:■:. ■''■ ■ ''■.'■"*.■.•-■- ;■
e/cn.u/pof/5
Page, 2
;.^t \lt:. yShe^ensity^PftPP^ one of the lowest
:';;Vw.prld^3?egibns. was."; 11 per^.S.qua^e-'|:iipmetr]e.'of total;. land- '^po^tio within.; the/continent .is . very varied among'^ii;
^ a
4
countries. ' Densities;, y&ry.. '.from;/leKs't^an',41 ^ in-.Kau}pitaia-La,.,Lit>ya: an"irB.pts^ana\tosabbi^"116'
below, ^^^ i
■ ■ '.. Density'./* . ■[<':
(popula-tibn^per square
■■ kilometre ■of/area-} "■ . ■- ■ •
■' ■ -4—.10-- •-'•■■■'■: ■;■/■ ■■
11-18 .' *>
19 - 35
36. and 'above .,,.;,; , .
■ "Total: ■"■ '"**■"■' 'r""y- Source:; ..ECA*...D.eiao^raphio
^can'^ountri e^s/ariife
^ou'ps-in io£&rtl9"6.? ^z1^
- ;■ ; of . '■ .
! , ■coun'tri es'/areas ■
:.■■■ ■-' : ■■■ ■ .-ll ■-'■':■■ _■
■:"-■ "-10
TTlV. \ ;■■: -■ 57 ':;- ' : ""' Handbook for,,Africa,
;"'in' density'&m#
:..■:■.:.■ '-; ..j ,■•< j 1 ^..r . "
•rt ■' Percentage of,. V\i total population
■ of Africa'' ■ ■''
21.6 .32.3
•. . ' ' 21.0w ■
*■' 100.0 ' fl
March .19,68.^.Table. 4,-
It is clear that except for'a-'Yew areas (for example, most- of the Uiie.; river areas!,; some areas in the equatorial high lands, parts of"
Western Africa ah*d the small; island dependencies) there is not much
pressure of population on land in- Africa as measured by the density of population in-treiation to the total land area.
■; : It should however..be pointed, jcjut.. .that measures of ..density . ' ■.
constitute only one.,:'aspect of the: pressure of population in relation to resources and the potentialities o£ eoonomic, development* The limitations involved in this measure remains even when .allowaribes Ure made for non-arable land and the agricultural, population.
' JAvailabi.e'.daia indicate1 tha-fc'among the World1^ major'regions1 w Africa has the' highest .fertility;'-the: .estimate rof crude "birth-rate for
■1960™6'6r'being:46':'per 1:$0O as against;;a world-■average-.of'34 per:10Q0»
Within ;!the regions ■thecrafes---rarfge'd '-frosi' over'-^O "rper 1000'in- Western Africa -to'43 in Southerri'oAfrlca.'; :Africa;i-s al;s.o'known' to have -the ■■
highest' mPrtali'ty rate^'^amb-ng ^fcMe ■iwQ1rldls;-reiio"ns-'-'-With'"an .average:":
crude-d'ea^h' 'rate of ^23^Sr;'10OO'i:;as compare'd''with"'a'WPria average ^ot about 16 per 1000. . Within the region the range '-wad'between'■■ 27 per'
1000 in Western Africa to 17 per 1000 in Southern Africa.
With high and constant fertility,'Africa is characterized by a
population with a high proportion of children (about 43 per cent of
Page" 3
population are under 15 years) and consequently; a large dependent population. This, feature of cpurse has: weJlHsnown economic conse quences , to be noted.later*
The -rates.of^growth of.Africa*s population is estimated to be 2.3 per cent .per year as compared with an average 1-9. Per cent for the world,. ' Africa's rate of growth, is now second only to Latin America, but.■.estimates made by the United Nations show, that with high and \ constant fertility and declining mortality it will surpass that of America in a decade or two. From the rates of growth of population
£pr;'African countries given in the Demographic Handbook for Africa, ii:'_ will be observed'''from': the" "table th^fc many/countries'"have"-already.
.reached or'are;very close to the :3 per cent per annum mark.
Available data also given in the Handbook indicate that though the degree o:f urbanization in Africa is1 low as compared with other regions of the world>J:the., rate of urbanisation and the degree of concentration "of urban' population'in a few big cities are-very.high.
;^1oj.:'exainple;,ex6luding; the 'small islands, only two countries JJA&' and; • .
.^Soy^ Africa have'between .30 and 40/ per cent qf their'population;. ■■ ■;■^Jivjn^in''towns' of'20,000'and more inhabitantss while 15 countries ■";■;;
■■Kav4'betweeh;5 and 10' per' cent' and 10 countries less'than1 f>: per! Cent;
in'towns .of 20,000'inhabitants. At.the same time the urban populations of rnany^of th'e countries are known to be growing at more'than 6 per. ;
cent per.annum. It is also known that migration from rural areas; to ; the few big cities is very -high in Africa. ' . "' .International migrations especially across land frontiers is also estimated io.T^e fery high in Africa especially in. Western, Eastern ';and Soutiiern';Africa." \'"' ' ■■' '' ■.' ■. ,'...■ "-.".. ,'
. To Bumupi Africa is characterized by the following demographic features 'with, their .attendant problems":' "..',." ' ■' /." . ".
. : ; (a) Relatively' low densities in many countries; except only in
" ' ' " ■■ ■ ' a''few-.areas" ^ there^ is no' pressure'bn land. " ■ This measure of density' constitute, however, only one aspect of the pressure
■. ' . '.- ■ of'population 'in relation to resources and potentiali ties
"'" ■" "' for development.'■' ; '" '...' • " ■ ■ "" "-..:
,. (b). A great unevenness in distributipn: of population among the different countries, with a multiplicity of small hamlets , and villages, few; mediumr-sized towns, and few big cities,- ...
which are in most cases getting over-crowded* :
;f (c) Low degree of urbaniaation, but very high rates of growth1; ;
' ""' ";'. ' ■ 'of urban populations. ■ " ' . ■ "' "
High and constant-.fertility, (with, a possibility of slight;. ,.
increase in certain population groups with improved health -facilities).*. : ■ _■. .. '■■. = '■.■:> ''..■'.
Page 4
(;©) :- High mortality /with s-igns, ..of; declining which may "be sharp.
..-...; in:.many .countri.es* ■. v^.^;^,; i'-'--.,. .■ v . .- ' ' ' '■■: '.\'-;'../' (f) High rates of populatlpiij^owth, which are'-likely to . .-•■' . ..-■ . . . accelerate in. "the near"--£ufure-as fertility remains constant .■"■■:■.'.--...and-.."tHe present' high .mortality "continues1 to. decline-. '■ .'"
. (g).-; High proportion of children in the 'populations resulting,.from 1 /..high- fertility, ;and;therefore■he.^^^depe^den.G^-.- ratios^-mthy - :; ■■■■'> implications -if.or rh'eavy .expenditures required for education "■.
_.' ■■, . and .provision of^jobs for the. growing ■population.;- ' ■ .."' ■'■ ,' .'
X^ pSeeretariaf'.-c^i^HetDnited "Hations, i ^x^:^
ing words how n:rapi.d.growth .of ..population may oqmplioate ^&e problems"
of economic and social development of underdeveloped countries, in these words. • . • "" '. : :■ . -,.'■ -• ■.. "■ '^ -■'■ ;. ■ .. '■■ . ■
accelerating population growth, can aggravate the problem.
of capital shortage j which is,bne~o£ the most .important obstacles to economic development of nearly all underdeveloped countries. The faster the population, grows, :'the larger, the share of each yearTs income which must be, invested in increasing the stock of productive equipment merely to maintain the .existing level of equipment per worker, : The larger the investments required for this purpose, the smaller the share of annual
income that .will be available either to raise the level of current
consumption per capita, or to make investments which would increase the.
productivity and permit higher levels of consumption in the future.
.. . . "While in. a well-developed dynamic economy the demand for such capital .investments may serve as a stimulus to continuing economic growth, the case of the underdeveloped countries, witn their.narrow"
margin of income over subsistence needs^ is different. For most of' them;it is difficult to save and invest enough frqm.. their meagre
annual income to permit. economic development to".proceed at a^.satisfac—
torypaoe, even without rapid population growth. It is true that'if these .countries, can industrialize and better utilize ..their human as well as their natural resources, some of them at least, will, undoubtedly benefit, in the long run froa» a .substantially larger population. But
even where a large population would be advantageous .in the '.long run, economic progress will be hindered, if numbers in.brea~s@ so.rapidly as to put an. excessive strain upon the economy. .
1 '^"Second, the high1 birth rates of the'-underdeveloped countries
create a heavy load of dependent .children^for the-working-population ...
the percentage of children'under 15 years of-age in-the less developed countries of 4sia., Africa, and Latin America.,are .generally in the order of 40 per cent or more of the total population,, while.'the range of this
ratio:in.the European countries is from about ^0 to 30 per'cent. The
difference is the consequence of the'higher birth rate's in-the former
Page 5
areas. $ie-necessity of supporting so many children puts the workers, ;■ ■..■■
of the underdeveloped countries.^ an added disadvantage in. their efforts to save and invest for economic -^development. It also complicates the, •■
problem of providing the. children, wi^h the education that is .essential
for social and, economic advancement in the long, run". 1/ .
The highlights., of :fhe World, Population. Conference, 19.65,..included .; ■ a recognition of the .accentuation of the problems in recent years andk-
their consequences. 2/ . ■ ,. .... ,:: ; ; \ ■ ; -'^J !x' ■'
Attitudes to. Demographic Trends, in African Plans'.^ ' --■ ;v V'. !.,..'. facedwith the. demographic sjt^a^on descried- and dn-cthe context-:[
of the conse^enoes.putl^H^ov^VSow much attention liave^ African :^':
goverhments given to it a^diiow^e: they > set out, foidealyrxt^th-e ■
cpnoomit:tant^robl;eiDS in their ;£ey^6p#ent plans: which present the;- J"; - efforts" pf, goVemmerits in the.imp^ovemeitxt of the standard, of liwia^. of, .-•
their people?' liicanswering these^qiJtes1;ions, it might ^-useful, to^ -;- ^ differentiate between the a^itudes of.countries, wh^ch;liave-^fficxaar - population policies and those governments without official -populations-- policies. A population policy should not be, interpreted t£ mean a
policy of population control- It simple means, ^e.offiaiaity.:&eQl attitude of '% governmeni to. pp^la-ti0^ **;deinb;graphic^ (tre^s ^exis in the c^utiir^/:r^e'!policy, mi^tit dea^'wiiih jonl^:^© aspects of- population t^ettds o>-a comprehensive '(M&^afialing ;wi-|ii Jota^ po^
itsoomposiiion^ ^stritiution, growth^ and othfr aspects iite©.'f€irtility
and mortality.: : ■'■ ■■ :„"""■;■'"■ . ""'" 1= .'!■■■■;,'.'1.'.".:'' ';■■'■':■:,..-. ="--":-V ■",,..-■"','.''.. ■.'■■
■-'■""■■■ To,date, four African'■■oo^^es^^^^'Mtfropgo^^imisia and Eeiiya
haye official population policies' whose main;:;o^Jec^T<^ to^reduce
the rate of po|»uiation growth by^ reducing'-i!tt£L%*ti$to&(&'-X6&lir\planning^'Xt is :also knp^n that GEaria has declafedr announcing a' policy soon^.%J has no$'"fits^yet ;ii6ne' so.*
There is no doubt about the fact -that one■"■o^t£e>bst important.,^
topics a'development plan should consider is tk^tatal go^iiation whose
wfilfa^a plan gerierally j3eeks ;to improve. A ^pun^ry^s-^e^eiopmen^ ; -' ,'plan should i% least give some attention- to the size ^i qualify of the^
populations armin^numv;;% ^diTcation of ■-
how theii^:^4st^ucture of;;the4_ ji
1/ Report -6n%orMr'SPciaI SiiiualidnZ lM?K^iiedAtions^^^ca,t^gn'9^:
<: ants-^ an<f GokQeduehces of '■'PtifaiatlCTg -jgreftgb (Unit &:$k%lom p^^ioat5:on ktfi: now under1 revision)., 'C^^
2/ World Pp^lation ■: Challen^e.to .Sevelppment. (.United Nations.
•■:.publication^ ^l ^€^^^i4}':''$%/ 'f ''
Page
changes in- the size might .affect .the efforts • ■ improve,;, th',3 lot of.-the .population.., .In this connection ;
It is i^p^^t^hat^a5 projection o£^&e total population by age and ' sex spi^&TS&s^afcpdied in all' development plans.5 :"iAn' ■examination of
African, development \plans however shows that many of them do notobtain any statement on the size of the population. Many others..
^-only-an .estimate of the population at,1 the beginning of the "
oither'.together with or without its rates of growth. A few ;othexs
detailed projections by age anti sex. ..''. \ ■'■■■■/•' .'.-'*■■ r;-:- ■:■Two,of the few countries t^athave^y.en considerable attention - 1
>pulation in their plans are Kenya and Tunisia. Kenya's plan" - " i
>-70; includes detailed ..projections .of the .population by age and--:" ■■
sex under,different assumptions ..of---.fertility and mortality and'-ti*e-- -.,, -,•• .- impact of,these _di.£fer,en.t. projections, .on .economic growth^ Similarly.-- /■■■■--
Tunisia's Plan- auadriennal. (1965-1968): has ;very;,detailed data on the ;",/..- 1' ■<
base population as well as detailed projections of the population age; '■ * sex, nationality .under three different-assumptions of fertility and ■ '"■■■
mortality. .There are also projections <'of-the school age and urban
population and the labour force., .'--.-o-" ■ ■< .-,-■; : ■ - ■ . . . ■ ■ ..
Attitudes to sige of Population..--_■■ < ' ■■ - ' '. ; ■ ; . ,: ..'.'/'■'.'■ " ' : "'*"" :'.";. ;-' On the general attitude^towards, population sise'as such, many
African..plans,declare indirectly a desire for.bigger populations for
three-;main reasons, existing.low: densities, need,; to prcnyide. ready
market for products and adequate labour for projects. " fehe following,
quotations from different development plans are typical °f popular views on population/ sizes in Africa.. ; Jn Ghana1 s seventy ear plan
1963-70 the following statement appears* "A growing population presents
an opportunity, as .much.; as: a problem,;: As -.there are : more mouths to 'feed,., '. ..
so also ape there ■ ev.gn.tually mqre.,hands to work. -A- sustained stream,'; ..,'.".,.", of productive investment at an adequate-rate is; required to.-^rn ..this . 17^; t opportunity into reality". This statement also contain caution.
Somalia's First Five-Tear Plan (1963-1967) says "The rate of v !..,,. r.
population growth is not known. The birth rate is probably high ,. '!,■/?■".'.
"but,' due to the inadequacy of health services, it is unlikely that the ','.-'(lJ
^eath'. rate is very low. Thus the rate of natural increase cannot be '„*?■
very high. . However,- :..the 4eaj;h rate, will,: d^clin.,© --Kith the improvement '.'"!
i$ health services as,-: envisaged .in .-the Plan", and tiiis will result in'
an increase1: inr',|he-.r,ate. of population ■grow.jbh.,:..But^^he Somali, .Rei>u'b,li;c,";7: •"■,- is n^t: dVeri^oj^:l^:e(|i,^:1Jn--yiew of. ttie relativeiy'; "small, si^e o^ the":'!1^;'.^ '""■
population and-.'-tii©'..^©^ large; area and natural "rLespur.ceS;, wiilcjb. wotil4 I,
"be. pro^resSiVely'"-exp"1.6iied through, economic dei7^ppm'^tV..*hJe^to'isiirV1<^ "'*"
is. not likely, to. have a.pdpulation problem in the foreseeable futuref*.
In almost the same vein the Second' live YeaT;'3>evelQpffient:-fPlan'''*'■'■'' ■'■
of Ethiopia says: "During the next five years the total
Page.'t
increase in. /the .popula,tipia, .is estimated to reach.nearly two million, ,whil.-e in 51974"fcae population, will ."be, about 9,0.million..larger than in
1954-.. Such ;a rapid..-jgEq.wth of population is enqburagingj, b:oth ;f:rom. the
■point,, of .vi.ew ..of,;the^availability ,-bf the labour .force-and.,of ..the,:.
extension of the -domestic marke.t., particularly since Ethiopia/ is-a . : spars.ely ■settled/.cpuniry". ,'■ : -:- . . ■..-■ . " ■..'-. ,.■■/• ; ■/""■■;.■' ■;■
-..:. '■ .On- the"- other kand.- a;-,few -.covui-fcrie^: ^ave-.shpwn in $helr plans a:.: ' . desire'' for. small er-. -populaiions - tinap -;1:hos e impli ed in - .,the: rates ■ of.^growth
^I^^^^L'ilil'^g^J.S^JP^^-o^^^tiD^^eis :pres:ati-te_d'in %eir .plans,, .".in--■ V other, words lVa' 'desire' for lower rates 6£ ^Qpuiati^n^gr^-tih^ ;.^FprempS.V
.rampn-g .^e^^^-.'lg^-oa^^^in-^iielr^la^^,are;E,enjra.9;Kaur.itills,-Tunisia and' .jioroceo. Kenya which Is .the'most fbriitrl^ht, ...country 'caj' this-'-aspecf." .■';'■
says; in its Development Tl^.:-(l966-l^j^\:'^qy^^mmV.3-- Gonsideration
of population growth has hot concentrated solely or even primarily on economic growth effects^ Indeed:the.principal-concern has;been, with ' the welfare of the individual and the family ....-With a Ibwer^bi^th
^^£-3 hi-gb .propor^ipnv-^of ..womeji^qpuld'be^given adequate "maternity were "
..ensuring;,"b,et.ter .iie^Ith;;'f-pr mothers and-^few^r deaths -of children during
the^irst ;year of la% ,j^ow estima."ted.'.at,»i5^^r.;cent): ■. Sewer;.chia.dren, "
mor,e. ^rid^ly "space^,. woulj//reduce the; 'annual. 60st to- the family of'-- • "■
^ut.ting,,chli4Een;;j,iihrough s-.c^ool .aii-d...would mean-, ."fchat -more childr-en/'-could be ^carried...to,MgheTr".education. Pr.essu.3Jes, on .housing, and water "and-"' - f,pQ&. suppliess-.wo,uld -be diminished, -permitting the family a higher ' ■ / standard of _ii.vi'ng-' and-the-possibiiity. ■pfr."inpreasin.g its^ savings' for . the 'f" *"' '' '" J'" ' " ''
■■■■.>'1§fee.-:con;aunction,;of....family: an;d ';in:dividual interests ;in this ;ma-tter'
: the .Government /tq^^-^te.ah^Advisdry -Grotip of experts; .--t^.-1 visit;.- .:■
K^ya.:antj;.;i^ake ,ree.ommerLdations ■ fQr,,avprpgramme:-of. family ■planning"--". -...--■ ' ''through,;voluntary,Jm.ean^- anti-wi;thin ■religipus. .presp.r^ptions11. Similarly
^proc'^osaySthe'^ollQi^ o^^tp^^^^^^>Pl Til
;./ ■This.''probi-em'man4ifests itself:-.-dif;f:erently in the-towns, where.unemployment ..is ..gr.e.at.,and in ..tiae rural areas where the problem ■
■is.more one of ^under-empioym^nti ' .Pro j.eo'-fc.iQn.s ,f,or :^,he-.nest-years ■ show that.1 the. situation ■risks getting wp^se,because -■pf th'e ^population "' ■ increase. 'As long" as this, remains high, and-Morocco does riot -engage' ' ig a. policy .tq kexep-:lt;ift. check;r;©rcpnomic ide'Vel.opm:ent-.:will" continue :
tQ ^ve-.avTetdrdiiig:'faofor,_dlf^L©ait/V^ oyer-come^ ., As -long-.as^ the'..rate
df population: increa.se; of. 3; per cent .per-annum;..!©-maintained,
. employment/will .■■Continue-;to. "get.:wors.e *■■■■■ '. ,-.■'■.. •' "; ".■■"" '■■ ■ ;. ■ ' y another countryt"-wltia:;.:6ffic.ial 'p;opui:ation:,polI.cy-,-;.;has in -it& -Elan. Quadrlennal - (.■lg.65.768J:. a ..s.ec.tion ,on "fam^y:vplanningMi^.;'
it sayss Th§..!Punisian .population .is -.characterized."by:■.-■, ■ ■■ '.,'"' .' ' -(l$ ■•high .-birth ,rat"& (44. 'per- cent;)' \ ■■■■ ■'"..-- L ". .:.-.''■'".'-::
high mortality rate (20 ,per cent) though,declining ..,'.'■ ,
Page 8
/
l:'-'[\:.- In order to-reduce ■■tftis/l^a^e7;bf"""Increasearid-to slow,
■■growth' bf' the'COuntTy'^jpdpxi^ation, "there' is ■Only one. isolation:
\eniphasis muSt'be given'to. 4h'e;-;feduction in "the :bir;tb^;rate? -^""The ,improvement "in the ■■standard;'of■■ living 'and tne;UeVel6.j>m;ent,.o\^3
■and.'culture-'has1 '"teen siiioe'independence■ and -sha^l'^continue1 1l<?-;!beva";' factors .which/encourage, voluntary-.control 'on'-""birth's. /.In" the meantime at-is: important/io;emb:ark-on action at the national lrevel :,on the .e&uca
tion-'of^'tfi'e^p'lop'l-.e ,in"i:hi^"vfield':a'nd''to. encourage ttie. 'population ip:
undertake Voluntary "family' planning. .'■ .Tbi"rea6h"this/"end' the'gbye^im:ent
;.h1a:%- ^ecidedit0^.put:;"forwajr^:-;a programme "of vfamil^ '■panning;.Whipfi^w£ll la'e uiidertak'g|i.;in two-; stages-.. /' "" -, ■'■" _"': ^; *', '""■' ''■ y..^.'1 ';,'■" \!
( "'■an'' ■experimental- :'s'ta,gW9overing two';citi'es/' and -sii:'senii4rural
a Matronal programme :-"" t- ' ■,_ ' ■" ''■". . '..'Bducatidn ■ .■■."■' u "'" ■ "; ■' ; "'\'. '; " ' J"m ,'■' <*l''.;'" ,".:.". .■ '.""■"'.
."■ ■'■ One 'thing to' which "Afri.can development plah'6 hiiv^ -'given great':' attention 'and ".bn which all African governments ;'a;re.spending; large sums of money is the provision of educational facilities. -A.s indicated, in
the plans, many .governments ,d° sos' first^becauie. of the desire ip "''.
provide trained manpower for the countries ? ,'and because education is good in itself."" ft. is. not ;'ge?].er'all"y'realized that the."burden of educating the people is very heavy: in Africa because of the unusually
high proportion of children in-the population. ^Available data .snow- that in. almost all.the countries~a^ least'40 per cent of the popula
tion is below 15 years? meaning that the school-age population (about
6-19 years) will be about "30"per cent of the total population' in Africa This situation will continue as' long as fertility continues to be iaigh in Africa? implying that'\expendituT'e in .this' field will also be rising, thus Leaving African; governments with; less to s'p'end ,on directly
productive enterprises.1 The 1966-70 plan of Mauritius ^presses very well the plight of African'governments 1in.:t!his''tiel''d in. the following words: . "Education is crucial to'the "development ";effort- . ..•'; rMuoh -of
the expenditure on education under this plan must go .simply to keeping step 'with thegrowing population". ■■■;■■■■ ■ - . " ' * ^ ■* ■;.' ' . ^ ,.
g education takes a. high proportion'of the' expenditure in; . development plans it is not clear from vthe plans that in most of the
"■countries the population at :risk or the'schop! age ^population is. .known. ■
Only a few countries have included in their ^lans prpjeGtiohs of"the
school age population. , In..many countries the plan simply lis^s a number of development "projects in educatiori ■without stating ,
■'exactiy' the ' number "io-be'prd'videdVfOT.^ -The ohlx'way of "geiting'rto
know the burden :th'e' '''African countries hav^"to'O^'r'y ."in. providingeducation to the young and growing population ^s'to; include a projection of the school-age population which Will also Help' to assess at the end of the plan period the proportion of this number actually provided for.
/ Page 9
■■---'■ .■ With the aid::'6.f'~ detailed1 population projections under' different
asSumptionB, the'-Kenya plan 1966-70 was able to assess-.the cost of providing.'educational-facilities to the population at risk under different'circumstances-and arrivedat the following conclusion.
"Even data ofthis-limited nature make it apparent that^population policy' is/necessary' for^ planning purposes.: Thus with'constant
■fertility-and at 'current cpnstructibn cost of £20 per stu'den-fit-wOuld cost over £100'million'to build1 the additional-' facilities needed,^to-"
educate "everyone of primary school age ^at the-end bf the-centuryi---With diminished fertility- the dost would be les$ than- £45'.mill|..6hI-"'-i1hei'efore
£55'^million :|s:. saved1:, on/primary school construptton-;alone^ jijir-*&£■• 6V:- -'.' •' . million per year 'which could be used for additioh'al: economic; dev.el'opment".
Other-estimates too-.show, that if a high'birth rate:.coul&; b&..reduced '■.by; .
a-,ha.lf .-in 3G:i.'y.ears-.(this-1:in...general.,. constitutes-'-the^as'sumption cbncem- ing fertility in the "medium" 'population estimatesv^bf^tbelllnj-Aed' lations) 'with investment.?programmes continuing as before, ^the gain■<in -the' i - ■■
national .income per-head would.be.40 per cent.:in' these^ 30'--yea.rs--and'-":
per cent' in: 60 years. -..'■■ - : '- ■ ■ ■ 'r ■■■'■" '•"■'" . i . t--'-- Kenya's plati'-.gives not only figures --on- school enrolment .a-t'. the.,"
■ beginning'of the plan ■ (which "many African plans' give) but alsb^the''. ■'..
population'at risk at different sta-g-es. Of the plan and what.-proportion -of;', this the ■plan caters for.' ;:It-is-of: cou'rse .true to say that to.know
the--expected population' at 'risk"might"not-1 influence what Can be' done:
because' of ,the inability to "increase the''-financial' resources available yet it. is also true that the extent of the burden can-only be'known"; ■ when the population at. risk is known. . .
Urbanization ' '. ■ _ ' " ■ ■ ■ -.-....■
: ■: ^."-ijiother.'-pTobrem to-whieh. all i African", plans give-considerable' '■ :
atten'"ti6n!-i's. the-high rate^of rural'-urban migration and-'the; problems ,,this creates^ -Here-all. plans try tormake special provisions suGh1 as the provision :of. more:facilities in-1'^employments health", education,:-;' :-' :housing,-transportation'j etc. in-the urban areas as well as rthe: ;' -■.;■■' .provision ■■Of'.;bett.er?ifacilities in -the 'rural 'areas in an attempt to" - ■ cbunteract the' effects, of rapi4 -urbanizatiba, -and hold the rural*•■■ , urban migration :in..-check-. On :the-topio of-.;;3?apid': urbanization the' National Development Plan of Nigeria 19^2-1968 has this to say about Lagos.', ■ ■ -' L ■ ■■■■■■ ■■ ■■ -.■■...-■ -""'.;: .-: -...■■•■ ■ .'■' ■ '. ■•■.•■■ ■ ■ " ■'-. ■ ■:■"■ -.
■'(a) The interrelationship between a. rapid" increase'.in. population.,.
■ ■ .. ,"-;.■.; and the.major, expansion of government commercial and . ■-....■-■ ■.!:
>;; :.''." -. . industrial'-activities is. .the basic .causf,of ihe Lagos. , .
■. ... :-..- ■.■■■"/ .; problem. ; '. . ..'...:.■• '.■-.-■■■■■..■ ,.;-,'--■■' ■ :'■.'■'■ .■. ■'. -
•:,,; . "(b)'3?he: population is increasing at a faster rate, than the
. , provision .of new facilities. ;Health services^ housing,
".." ^schoolsj'transport,. water and-markets -are already inadequate.
.-.'. .t ;. iespite:.major investments the situation, is liable, to
■-. : .. ; ■deteriorate .further, if the present rate .of ..population.,.... ■. ...
1 ■■ . . increase continues". ■ ■ ...■■■■■ ■■. ■■■■■, '■-'■•.
Page 10
;,' 'It should however'WJ reffleffibere|(ii:t]aat 'some degre'e. of urbanisation ..is necessary and a boon-to development under favourable circ'umstahbe's.
It is kn Own .that in many. African- countries/as much as 35' Per cent/1.of;
the. total,...population iives in. villages^bf, less than 200" persons''ea'ch,*
This of bourse hampers the" provision •o'fF-: facilities to such- ""small" ,"■';■'
■, localities.' /-^Discussing urbanization the ■Se^ional plari;'fbr" Eastern"" ;"
'Kigeria. ity&Z-fify .says: "This is ah asset to industrial grOTffth/b:ec;aus'e;
.,■ concentration of'.ah" active.1 ah& adaptable ■labour force'".readily1 available
"!\fbr industrial'employment''is' a boon' to. an expanding' economy.1" Bu.t"v'li'^
.also; poses iis special problems 'of resettlement and" urbanization .the. neefL 'for '■expansion; bf .employment .opportunities" Ugandans. Se
^^iv'e^^ar;^:^ ' this ;fcb "^ay '"Wie capi^aiTbois
.urbanization are'very hi^h. Eowever a'highly dispersed rural' population brings with it. special cbsts j. particularly in the provision of ., social'amenities". ' Mauritania^ Plan'. Quadriennal. de Developpement Economiq.ue' et Social says Urban development during the last three years has essentially centred on three town's Nouackchbtt/'Pprt Etr.enne and Port Gorand. The very rapid growth of these towns has' passed
expectation. The public infrastructure has become insufficient despite heavy investments agreed' to. . It is however evident .that this -turban ■
development is going to continue in the years to comet To avoid* the
tremendous increase of the towns, to organize urban life and establish
"reasonable facilities mu.st be the aims of government policy; for"'the
four.year period'1$'63~1966.. These statements from different'develop ment plans clearly illustrate. ' the interest and boncern'of African;.
governments in urbanization and the spebial attention given to the'..
problem in their plans.
Manpower and Employment . '-'-■ --- '''"■-
All development.plans in Africa give particular attention,to the provision of jobs for' the labour force which all countries realize is
growing at a ver^.fast rate* First, all plans stress' the^neetl'^or,, '=
trained'manpower to replace expatriates and,th© education, plan'in many countries'is geared especially to expanding.particularly"higher'.^duca—
tion' t6'1;fulfil''this need. Here5 there are;usually estimates 'of[/the ,.'■
labour force and employment opportunities in the'plan period. In.many pian^ there are detailed projectxons of the labour force. Definitely,
it'is' the existence of these estimates that makes'" African'governments aware of the extent of the burden. In many plans the difficulties.1'
■■in :this field-are-given great attention. Uganda^ First. Five^-Year Plan for instance notes that while the population was growing at 2.5 per cent per year wage employment, increased by only l.per cent per
year in the 1950's while the absolute figure fell between .19-60-62, 1 the fall- in-1961-62. being 11 per cent-*- A few statements from African
plans;,-may illustrate-theo concern in Africa about the .provision of
,.; jobs ; for ?the population? The.. Mauritius-Plan 1960-65. sayss-.. "The objective ' of the development programme is to provide,.additional-employment
opportunities.for the island^s-growing,labour, force .while.at the same
Page 11
time^furthering the development qf infrastructural:.and. social services ,to the. extent, required; to...meet .-.the needs of the directly/.-productive-
'. sectors .and; to .keep paee :^itfcL:'the-growing population". ."The aim is to increase yearly,growth of -employment to equal growth in labour, force".
Morocco's -concern in this sphere is well illustrate^ "by the statement already quoted in a previous section. ' .
. -GhanaAs seven year :plan-says "Government is.firmly committed to a policy of ..full- employment ,and.this Seven-Year .Plan has-been, framed on;■ the 'assumption .that ^ew Jobs must be.created ,at :a-.rate su£fi;Gient"
to-absorb-all the ;fresh manpower; that will become .availtSfcbl.e during-the period. This entails expanding the labour forqe by... ■approximately, .. ."
3 per cent a year in order to create 500,000 new jobs required to absorb; the .expected increase in Ghanars labour force. ". .jAbout1 the -prospects j .the-plan says: "Recorded wage employment'in.-Ghana, increased
from 245,000,in 19.55 to 35.0,000 at the end .of .1961"... "In the same period 1955~196l the output of the elementary- schools alone was 164,500;
.thus not counting the. even greater .members :of illiterate young .people coming of ,age\all over the country, and the numbers moving from the rural1 to the urban economy.,, pr the numerous immigrants annually ;.. ■ attracted to Ghana, the leading sectors of the economy could not have absorbed just the elementary school output alone. In the period .1955-1-^61 847,720 Ghanaians, attained^ the age of. 1§ -and thereby Joined
■the .potential labour force.. . _The .growing, ranks/ .of .unemployed persons in. all -areas of the country..are a living testimony..tor the inability of the economy so far to assure the security of regular employment to its labour force;"
On .the. other hand Ethiopia1s Second Five-Year,-Plan- ,i;s .not perturbed ,,by:.:the,hxgh rate o.f population, growth because it. will -provide sufficient
labour force to meet the needs of the economy- The. pl:an-goes on to '■
say.that -wage employment increased from 18,700 to 27?6OO during the
;first plan, and is expected to reach 59?9OO in-the .second, plan. -. . It, however,, does not compare this with the number of people -expected: to be.-ready, for .employment, .during the; plan period., and there
fore fails to. present the extent, of the problems:.involved.,. .
Fertility and Mortality ...■■_■. ... /;"..-. ■ ■ ■ .■ ■■ ■ - :.■ ■ ' . : . ■■
.. r,..:., Ho. topics seem.-to be more neglected-in-African-development plans than fertility and mortality:- yet ■ they form the. basis of almost
all. the demographic probl-ems and the implied .effects, posed'by ail, the .plans, The. existence of .high fertility rates and.also high.butv ■■■ ;■■
declining-mortality are the causes, o.f high rate of population growth;■""■■
the;high .anti, constant, fertility- rates give rise to :high proportions' of...children,,:in, the populations^ the. high dependency ratios, and- the''.
consequent high .expenditures/on,,education, health, housing,■>etc. ,,:.In most'of the.plans there is a 'he^vy'expendi.ture on. heaTih:fa:cilitieSV-
E/CN.14/POP/5
Page\12./ ■ ■.,..■.
In .Tanzania the aim of the plan, I964-69 is to increase the life ."'
■ expectancy: from 35-40 to 5O^b"y1i9W-"; ■ The aim-of the health .pian^.o.f,
;:Gab6n. (1966-1971) is the organization of health services, which covers
■in.a practical' way the. whole population, paying particular-attention
; to ..the: protection of infants, taking account of the- demograpMe-:;.^1 ■ . situataion.-ih. the country,. ■ "■ ■ -11 ■'' ;...'.". ■-■/.;■ J-.--y.\-v':>;■.:. ■■
.It should be realised.that the improvement of health facilities
!and.the improvement in the.standards of living;which all development
■plans .aim at have the effect of lowering,-the-high mortality-'levels- iwhich^are at/present,,prevalent in Africa. ■'■■ The ''result 'Of: all the'se1:- iwill be to increase rates of population ;growth unless f ©rtility-.ds
also made to-decline. ' . . ■ '. 1; ■■:■■" . - - .-■"'■
■ On fertility, hot.much is said except in a few plans-. Gabon's
■aim is to maintain its ..present birth rate (low by African standards)
at 35 per 1000. It should, however, be remembered that the 'improve ment in the health of the people is likely to.lead to .a- rise in this
■low birth rate unless some-specific'measures are.also taken to main tain the present.rate. The plans of Kenya and Tunisia specifically make/provisions for measures.aimed at reducing the high rates of
.fertility. ■ .. ■ 'r ■ ■ . ' - \
Ghan,a*s seven—year plan poses well the problems presented by high fertility rate by saying: "Until the birth rate is reduced the popula tion will continue to grow and the numbers of dependent young will remain proportionately large"..
The statement already,quoted from the First Five Year Plan of Somalia illustrates very well the view of many African governments on high, birth rates — that is. they are welcome because of the smallness
of the size of population at pres-ent.
Bate of Population Growth ..''.■-...
There is no doubt that African, planners are aware-'of t.he effect of rates qf population growth on economic development^ All things.
being- equal the higher the rate of population growth the greater the investment required in social and economic overheads;,^ merely to. ";
maintain the same basic services and standards for increased, numbers.
.The problem is aggravated ^oy,. the, fact that countries with high rates of population growth have high dependency: ratios which- in-itself'calls for an extra large series of expenditure -items for. the care-and ■ ■ maintenance of ■ children, ■ and to. \a much smaller extent retired and other dependents. Investments in such social overheads are, however, not .directly productive, in terms of the promotion of economic growth;
countries with fast growing .populations are'therefore, able -to devote .only a relatively small part of ■ their, investment resources in-.fields
whiph could be expected, to. result- immediately: in high returns in ; '
economic growth, .- . ' ;
Page 13
In." all: 'the plans reviewed there is a. stress on the fact that; '■:'" ;'r economic■■'growth: has to/bg higher because of the high rate at which. ."'■ ''[
population-is growing. Sudan's 10 year plan (1961/62 - I961/72) says [
thafthe": first objective of the'plan *is to increase national income at a greater rate than the rate of population growth with the objective of- achieving a continuous and substantial increase in the average per- 'capita in-come1'.* The plan realises that the rate of population growth
of1 2*8 per cent per year is high and "that the task' of achieving, a higher standard; of living7 is great. .Zambia's' First Plan (1966-7I9TO) says ."The ■changes, in .the. econom^impited by these obje.Qtiv:eis (;of t'H.e. . plan) will..take place against the background of a rapid'increase, in",
popuiaHip£"^v'iThe" plan'; estimates- 2atdM#?s' populatibn'tp-be -:gr0w|n£-;.-■■
at .3v5::iper "cent 'p/er annum and -.plaW-for a real' growt^'in'the economy at the ra'te'of 11" per Cent per annum- in the.period- 196'4-7O:. :;Ugandats second development- plan' says; -"In Uganda population pressure as such ■ is .not the 'critical problem it-"-is1 in many developing countries, -■ ■ Howevers. the high growth rate'does mean-that.a large proportion of the ■.population is-In the schoolrage: group which makes the education '■'- burd'en much greater than xn most."wealthier countries9 which experience lower population growth. It also means' that Uganda must keep-moving • '■■
in order to stay in the-"same place. ' Growth in output and employment r- of nearly 3 per cent per annum is necessary in order to maintain :per-'- capita standards and hence for increasing per capita income an-even higher'rate of growth has to be achieved11. XJganda'"ther'efore -sets' itseif a-target rate of growth for totai'''6utput-in';the'--moh:etary; sector of 7*2 per cent per "annum .compared with '4*2 'kttalined in the ■ firs'tvpl:a'n- .The plan'goes on to say that the target '"is ambitious although''its:' -"
achievements'will still be onlf- a. Bare' start on' the' road to economic^ - development1. 'Tire- magnitude . of the ta-sk is very' gr;eat:?v*-' A report on.
the Premier Plan Quinq.uennal (1963-1967) of Madagascar"says- -■ Tie; -^apid''
growth of population in certain areas with very low standards of living constitutes a'"very -Serious problem . ' "■ '■ ■" ■ " " ■ "-"-- " :- '"■>■ ■'■ ■ ■
The simplest arid most straightforward statement ■ on- the
fate of p'Opula-tion growth' and economic developnient iff-'-i: ■ :^
the Kenya p3.an (1966-70) in- th:e following' words! "Per 'Capita '-■'■ >
ihebm-.e' is ■obtained-' by dividing the1-nation's 'total income by pdpula- ..
tion.' -If tiie-'grow-i/h;1'of Gross Domestic Product' were given>;'a-- reduction in %he growth" of population' would- obviously'raise;'income per capita,
conie' being ■sha-r^dv"amohg" fewer' people-" "Reducing -population- ;
^ for^several^reasons/'~raisehthe rate of' growth; of G3?6ss:
Dpniestic1 Producty thus giving an even'-greater'lift to' per capita" "■■"■ ''"
iacome1.'-. ■ 'The plain- then gives the advantages^ to:; be gained from .:>■■'"■
.redubtion "ih:rate;'-of -'population ' growth- • as: ■' first- the possibility of allobatin'g-more development expenditure to immediately.' productive activities instead o'f' to increas-eii- expenditures' in- social sectors whicE yield a' greatly delayed increase in output!, secondly rise in: ':
nutritional standards',' thus: reducing the need for sodial services;.and ■ increasing the productivity of the labour force and thirdly higher ■ domestic savings resulting from higher per capita income.' After
Page 14
disbursing '.the .gains Ixi- the lowerin^;^- the xate-.of. population' growth
both -'.to- '.the individual' and the" 'nation'$He.^pi an; "says that it will Ve '■' advantageous 'for Kenya to' adopt a nat^nki' family;planning .policy Jaamed .at- ''reducfing .the "fertility "rate'and of-'.jcourse the Tat e- .of population, ;■growth'?'.;.'4^' "toe i.same .time" the plari accep.'ts' the fact that ■Zenya'tB;"->.c. ";
population '..growth, 'of 3 per cent per annum will' continue for' sdm!ev time ?
and 'therefore .plans fqr an 'economic, .growth aimed >t offsetting; i
fft^;#^h;liiih' rate of population. ^owth'. "'. \ ; . '.";' !,' -''".v"-.;;!'
How-.r-ealistic are'targets set in African .Development- Flans; ; -, •'-J' '. J .i..-1
^^'"^qi'lieip1'^eing1"impreBsed_ by'fhe/"!d'e'grW'of optimism 'and :-';
^ with''which African ■governments ".set out"in.'their deV-elopmeni; ■ . plans, to offset'.the. effects'of high rates, of population !growtlu It is of course irue ■thai, almost, all the plans'" take':riote qf the1'"' ■ difficulties' to''ie .'encountered in reaching the'rat-es of economic growth set. However with .all'. these difficulties the'plans aim at ■ economic growths that will offset the effects' of population growth.
The statements' quoted in the-preceding section from different develop ment plans, illustrate., well how development plans in African plan ■; ; for higher economic^'growth in order to "beat the rates of population
growth. '■■■"':■ ■ ' ' . . ■ '...
There is', however, ample evidence, that the rates of economic growth implied ;in many African plans have not been achieved, while at ■ the same time the assumed rates of population growth have/been
surpassed. There is also' evidence of widespread-malnutrition and . large-scale illiteracy as well as considerable amount of food ' ; importation to .support -tue populations which are now. considered to be .not .sufficiently iarge--."".,'," . . . V '. ■ .-/'
Table 3 below is intended to show how well African governments have been achieving their targets in their development plans. It shows that while United Nations population estimates generally imply an. '
average growth rate of about 2-6 per cent, per year ,the averagd implied.
in African plans is 2.4' Per cent for the period 1965-JO.;' It 'also sliows that the. actual, growth rate of GDP has been about 4.4"per-cent ;f6;r' tli^
period I96O-64 instead, of the average of 5.6 per oent-targeted'for .in ; the. plansv Sven if-the increase for the.period 1965-70 is...su:<itl.J.ll3'"b .^
the targeted rate is achieved for the- ten-year period as""a. whole,.;'the;
unanticipated, population'growth will lead to .an actual per capita growth rate 0.2 per cent ...lower .than planned for. It may be lower still if, \ as seems probabl^,'.the growth rate of total GDP'remains nearer the
4.4 per cent ^achieved, in 196O-64.than the 5-6 P©^ ce^t postulated in' .the plans. , It id, very likely that rate of population growth may.be ;
higher than even the"United Nations .estimates. The l?6t'census of -1 ■ Tanzania for'.instance.; has shown,'the "ra.t'e of "growth of population; to be about 2.7 .■pe'r'cent per.year "instead ot the 2sl';pe^cent estimated.
1 ■—Plannedandactualrates 1 Sub-regionandcountry HORTHAFRICA 1 S[orooco iudan "unisia UnitedArabRopublic KESTAFRICA Dahomey Ghana Mali' Mauritania Kiger 'Nigeria."" Senegal Togo CENTRALAFRICA Cameroon Chad RepublicofO&ngo Dem.Rep,ofCongo EASTERHAFRICA Ethiopia Kenya Madagascar Tanganyika: Uganda Zambia., OTHERAFRICAKCOUNTRIES Rep.ofSouthAfrica
ofgrowthof Planperiod 1965-67
1961/62-70/71
1965-68 1960-65 1961-81 1963/64-69/70 1961-65 1963-66 1961-74 1962-68 1965-69 1966-701965/66-70/71
1966-70 1964-68 1965-69 1963-67 1966-70 1964-68 1964-69 1966-71 1966-70 1963-69grossdomestic Assumedrtate (pei GDP 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.0 6.3 5.5 8.0 9-2 5.5 ■4.0 6.0 5.6 5.0 5.9 7.3 7.9 4.3 6.3 5.5 6.7 6.1 10.7 5.5
Table3 productand ofincrease 1cenCperyear)of PopulationPerca« f\pitaGDP '■■■ ■ 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.1 ■a'-* 2.6 2.5 1.3 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.-9 :>2.i ,1.7 .;2.2 'a.'• '■'-:' 1.6 '.-3W1-
: : 2.1
.1.8 3.5 .2.30.7 2.3 4.4 4.9 «■■•
■ 2.9 5.5 7.9 2.3 1.5
-
3.7 3.7 2.9 4.2 5.1 ''.-■*•*■- v:■.■'■r-.Qzj-■' .3*2
:3*b
:\4.6 4.3 .7.2 3.2'-AE/JK. ■yPage impliedandestimated'.ratesof* Assumed incre-" capital/ output ratio 2,0 2.6 2.2 3-3 2.8 4-4 2.2 2.8 1.3 3.7 2.5 2.4
..■;:2..4.'■
v?"i,5 ■;'■
.v-i"3:;l■■'■■■■":ii4 '-■
2,6"""■"1.5
1.7 2.5 ..2.6.-'■■■■3.6';"'
Assumed invest ment ratio asper centage ofGDP
.1/
- 7.4 13.5 14-3 23.2 ■17.6 ;24.1 "17.4.- 25.8 7-2■ .14.6 14.8 13.6 13.0 :14.2 :25.6 ■22-28 -14.5 I6.4 "'8.0 11.2 15.2 28.2 20.0Aotttal;rate ■jeasei^ftea?.: .P$Q&-)r;0F-GI 1955-60^: 0.6. 5a.Op/; ■-7.1:.-- .«•a 5.4:/ ■>.•» ■»■■a' 1«'&■ *■'■•"■•'...I -a-,.■».■;-' -■•■•»■ •'-m*-''. ...r>/ 5.4-' ■a■a •.-a• *a*
XM 6.3^ ^^-lO/ll/
14/POP/5 15 growthof ofino- centper )r 1960-64 ■ 3.8,/
1.8^
5.6 6.6 •.a 3.8 *•a. aa* aa.//4.6^7 4.0^/
a•=-.'• ■*a ...c/ —2.b»4.1^
••a 3.3o/ 4-2=7 5.9population UKestimates ofrateof mereaseox population (percent peryear) 1965-1970 3.3 2.4 2.2 3.0 2.0 3,0 2.0 0.7 2.1 3.1 1.6 2.1 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 -2.5 2,1 2.1 2.0 2.8 2.8"»
jT^ft'^ n iij i )w' i ii i
E/CH.14/P0-P/5 P 16' ; !:'
Sources :and. Footnotes to Table-3.
Sources:
"Development-Planning in Africa" (E/CN.I4/CAP/9); .-"Recent
demographic Levels and Trends in Africa", ^tefAfi l V 6 ( ica, gfconomiote^
'.for-African vol. Vs January 1965 (Sales H"o-:«"'l"6§i'-ir.jE: 6J-;
.and estimates made at the National Accounts' incl Fin^icxal
^Statistics Sect,ion and Demography and Social ^Statistics Section, Research an^; Statis:ti,cs Division, United Nations'I Economic
Commission for Africa* ' i ' .
l/ Including net capital flow !
2/ For 1950-59,
y For 1962-34. . ■
'4/ For I96O-63. : ' ;
5/ For 1958-62.
6/ For 1961-66.
7/, For. 1954-60. ■■ . ' ' - >'■'■■"'' 8/ For 196O-66. .
9/ For 1960-65. ;
.10/ Includes data ,for South West Africa, Lesotho and Swaailaridu
11/ For 1953-60, :' ■' ' '■ '-'■■ .. ;
E/CHU4/POP/5 Page 17
The average incremental capital/output ra.1^o,;now. is. around;3, and the savings'.ratio; "i.e.'the investment required to produce the targeted
rate, of growth, of GDP, is 17 per. cent of the,GDP.. With an estimated population growth rate^ of-.2.6 per cent, it/means', thai 8 .per bent, of the GDP will be absorbed to account, for. the increase in. 'population,*r.e\ to.keep..ih:e per'capita'. GDP at .the same level,- and,'only!, tie remain-
ing 9 per cent wo,11 b@used.to raise, it by the -bargete.4 3 ^
per-year.. ■ ''-".■" ' •" ■ '■'■■'.'
; Concluding fremarjcs [ , ' .._,. . ; '" " ; ,. " \
: In the foregoing paragraphs an attempt''.liasv: "been made' %q..^e^r^yr
the- demographic content of development plans in Africa. In tioing' sot*j ^4ltp^.th©..pIa?iB of the post-independence era
^p'lasa^. too."'have been'"examin,ed»". ; ,?^?of^;4§?^®®?^^--s^*teyedfibm this reyiewlis that more attention could have"given to population problems in economid planning
^?fcia^^ when, l-fc-.is. AOnsi.dered.tiiat.Africa^s population..character- ■
is^ics "and especially "1;iie''.raie oj^rowth is a handicap ,'to the effprts .0'J'Ifrican. governments...in .-ihe, raising of standards' 6f living. '.""
;,.. W^.;?;^ 'be PPin.|,^d^pui that this, neglect ■ of the demographic
.situation" in>frica.plans mighti be due partly to lack .of demograph4c
data and analysis> as is illustrated in the First Five Year,.PlanJ;..;
(1963-1967) of Somalia in these wox0.3i^- VThe population is officially
estimated bythe .Ministry of Interior, at about five million. However, no comprehensive census of population of the country has ever been,
ta^en. .,,";-Thus reliable .information about numbers, age and sex.distribu
tion .birth, and death'.rates wiil.notbe available.1 till .either a'projW .bensus is taken. 9r data about population is obtained through.sample
surveys, 0?he rate of population growth-. isTndt kno^n.'^'The' birt^" ra'ije
is probably high". In the 1962-68 National Developm'ent Plan of "Nigeria
the plan for Eastern Higeria says. "Until thp for^Jicoming census ofpopulation in 1962 all.'estimates- of .population gmwth .are bounci.,to .have a wide margin of error."' While the Wes.tera.,^ig;epian plan says:" ' : ■ :
"Unfortunately-due to lack of' up-to-date" pp^la|J^4^a"it.: FPUld not
be possible to attempt a calculation of. the..incpme 'pe'y^'oapi^ "though the .population of Western Nigeria has.been'' '.put. p."'' seven1 mill ipn, .this figH^fis now no-more-than" an in-aelligent igu'ess.'.:' A more reliable ". .fe ■i;.s "not likely to be available.^until" the 1962'census has-been ■
il" ■ ' ' "" ' ' '
It is ript4ifortiiy to find that sortie', plans', have made financial ■
provision to. remedy.Jthi.s situation. ■' IToijaMe ■among tiese are the
!pl^n^;for .Soffiaiia''an:d;Mauritania which have made provision for ■ "'v b'l'..surveys. '■ " " ' ■ . ■ -•■ ' '■ ' "■ ■
Page 18
..,.;■ ' ■' The .plans. reviewed reveal the following; major; points... . ... ,.;■
V""""" -First, too\much attention';.is-: paid, to the present 'si"$V of \.'■.■:,,:
'population.rather than to other ■cHar-acteristics lifce/hi^ll -fertiiity:
■and' declining mortality,'.high .proportion of children:in the-, population
"with."'its", consequent h^igh dependency ratio," low degree of urbanization but high rate of growth of total population and urban population.,.;- _
Second, instead of population "being considered 4n its totality,
only .certain aspects like urbanization, labour force"ana:"the"provision
Of .educational and .'health, facilities to .the .fast-growing, populations have .been given, attention. .. ..Mo ,. .■-:-.'■ , - ■.. ?--■ '." ■■■■'■-■ - - ■ • ^-.'
" Third'i even though the rate 'of. growth,., of", population is:,known- to be high ii is welcome in many countries as a means of increasing the total population; and all the plans,make .an..effort to; get higher rates of economic, growth to counteract. the rate of .,.popuj.ation;;growth.
'.- ■ Fourth, even, though plans.exist for.improving the general standard of living of the population, .in some, cases ,no. estimates and in many cases no detailed projections of the total population and its segments like school age population, labour force.,.- etc. exist. In. these circum- istances it is difficult to. see how planners can'..judge the magnitude of the
remaining .problems in fields such as education after their plans have
been carried out . , ■■■■_,..-■■,■ .-.'.■
Fifth, though many countries have not as yet ..declared, any . official policy, on population some of them.like. Ethiopia, Somalia.;-...
and. Sudan indirectly do so in their development plans- Gabon for. , ':
instance comes out with a well defined policy while Ghana and Uganda hesitate in their plans to, specify, even though they seem to support a policy of reduced fertility and dower .rates of growth.. - %1 ,; _,
Sixth, for,countries with more than one plan the attitude seems to have changed with time. Ghana.for instance'had nothing on the , .demographic situation , in,,its first, and second plans, while the: third
plan shows considerate attention.. Similarly the Ivory Coast having in i,ts 3e--Plan.Quadriennal,,pnly projections of the total population, includes in its "Premiere ^nquisse du Plan Quinquennal de Leveloppement 1971-1975" projections-of total j urban and rural.. populations and even projections of the European population. It does'not only ■ end there but goes on to say that rapid urbanization will. mean the transfer of
the population,from,,the,Savannah to the,forest areas, with the probable effects- on income, distribution, ike...employment 'structure.; and th.e.
transformation of household:-consumptipn.\., The sam.e.■ thing is,tru.e..of Uganda where more concern is shown about, rate .of pQ.jnilat.ipn growth; in
the second than the first plan. The pre-independence plans are mostly all a catalogue of specific projects rather than comprehensive
integrated plans.
Page 19
■ . ' " "It is" well'known that for economic development the Relationship bVfcweeh the" rate of economic growth' and rate of growth of population is of greater importance than the size of population.■■ This^ is clearly confirmed, by the attempt seen in all African plans to plan always for a higher economic growth :than the rate of growth of population.. .One .of the'reasons'why Ethiopia for. instance advocates bigge-r.population
is tjie.' need to" provide a "bigger market for the countries products- It should" however'be noted that.it is not .only the'sia© of the
■population1 that determines tfe'sise'of the. market but also the
purchasing, powers A large population with a small "purchasing power
Qari'riot'..'pip;o"vjd:e a; large- market anywhere.. In any "case., .thp present', apd- potential" sizes of market are small within individual" African . ;
■'countries, .excepting for a1 couple1 or so. ■ The .awareness of "the African .0ountr:res:' to "this is seen from:the'efforts at sub-regional economic :. -.
■:'cb:--o_p"e:ratibn1. ■ "The seoretariat'.of;the ECA ... has.been able to :' -"estaM'tsh the framework for the institutional machinery to .br^.ng '
""Governments together, to'promote working relationship between them', and tb evolve' a modus operand! for securing, in respect of major '>z' .-.pro jects j the support -of all the, countries of the sub-region, as1.a1 ;'
whole..11 ' "■' '" •' "■ ■-'.■ ' : ; v "'"' ■ ' " ,-'".'. .,■■■'.'"
' ":; ' In,the above context, the statement',.on national planning, by the
! Secretary, of "the: ECA Mr, .Robert K. A. Gardiner take's ,oil- an .^ance: "Most'African plans underline the, importance of basic social', economic and administrative' reforms. But !few. seem to.be,
concerned'about the high'rates of growth of African populations, and fewer .still with economic integration as. an instrument of aiscelerated growth."Irl ' " _"■; /'' ■ " . ■ .... ■-'_'-_'';'' ' ." ' "
^'■':f"\: .As'■for', the 'provision of a .ready labour..force for "theS development /of"-:4frida''s-extensive potential resources,- it ■ m&y be:pointed''0^^ /that it is no't'only labour ;whi'ch Africa needs but' also capital. ' There.is evidence that Ai"ri6an countries, owing to, the cbntinuous- depression :■ in-"the'''prices of'.p'rim'ary products, now :find "it 'more and', more; difficult
ib obtain' development capital .Moreover external .'resources On..which ' many "countries'have ."been pinning their hopes' (as oari ;be seen firom. ,;
.development plans) have not been forthcoming. It is 'well- known that \
: with all the efforts being., made, unemployment/and undereinployment are ron the.increase in' many .African countries. ':It should, also be remembered
■that a large but under-fed and unhealthy labour force can not have a
high productivity, and may .therefore prove less useful., than .a: small" - but .well' nourished-'and'healthy one* ... " '\ "/. '" ■■ , .;'." '.''■■•'''
■ . £t; should be realia.ed- by--now that rapid, increases in urbanization, .the :'number'of children, to f-eed. and educate as V7ellvas- in^ the number ..of. peopleravaiistble f.or.wprk in- Africa are all dxf-ferent aspects of
the same, phenomenon, via. , the demographic situation... 'The-basic cause of all.'these, is .the existence .of high fertility and _a .declining "'■■
mortality. -.Measures by African governments to improve the/health of
