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HAL Id: hal-02792551

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02792551

Submitted on 5 Jun 2020

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L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

Necessity and challenges of knowledge integration to prepare the futur: biodiversity and its uses

Francois Lefèvre

To cite this version:

Francois Lefèvre. Necessity and challenges of knowledge integration to prepare the futur: biodiversity and its uses. Foresterra Conference, Nov 2015, Lisbonne, Portugal. �hal-02792551�

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Necessity and challenges of

knowledge integration to prepare the future: biodiversity and its uses

François Lefèvre

francois.lefevre@avignon.inra.fr

(3)

1) Mediterranean forests facing climate change : a complex world

2) Approach by state and future-based scenarios : transdisciplinary knowledge integration

3) Dynamic approach and decision-based scenarios : knowledge integration across scales

4) Two conclusions

(4)

Climatic extreme events, rather than mean tendancy, drive the future of the forests : risks and uncertainties

IPCC 2013

(5)

Short-term : more constraint, less uncertainty => adaptation

Long-term : less constraint, mo uncertainty => preserve option

IPCC 2013

(6)

Short-term / Long-term : bad or good ?

Dieback on silver fir in Mt Ventoux, France (2009)

(7)

Blondel, 2006 Hum Ecol

Mediterranean forests : a typical social-ecological system

(8)

Lescourret et al 2015

CO Environmental

Sustainability

(9)

Lescourret et al 2015 CO Environmental Sustainability

biodiversity

biodiversity

(10)

Resilience and resistance

Resilience of the system :

z

amount of change supported with the same controls on function and structure

z

degree to which the system is capable of self-organization

z

ability to build and increase the capacity for learning and adaptation Resistance Gunderson & Holling 2002 Panarchy

Reaction

Adaptation

Transformation

Expected impact of change

Intervention

(11)

Biodiversity components of resilience

Oliver et al 2015 TREE

(12)

1) Mediterranean forests facing climate change : a complex world

2) Approach by state and future-based scenarios : transdisciplinary knowledge integration

3) Dynamic approach and decision-based scenarios : knowledge integration across scales

4) Two conclusions

(13)

today

Resource availability Production

Choice of reproductive material for planting

Lefèvre 2012

(14)

future?

future? future?

future?

Do we know the response function?

Can we predict future environment?

What do we accept today?

today

Resource availability Production

Choice of reproductive material for planting

Lefèvre 2012

(15)

Cheaib et al 2012 Ecology Letters

sometimes ≠ models converge (predictions for scots pine in 2055, A1B)...

predicting future potential species range

(16)

Cheaib et al 2012 Ecology Letters

… sometimes not (predictions for beech in 2055, A1B)

predicting future potential species range

(17)

Benito-Garzón et al 2011 Global Ecol Biog

the genetic diversity matters...

predicting future potential species range

Pinus sylvestris Pinus pinaster

(18)

Centaurea maculosa, introduced in the USA in 1890, 32 climatic variables

and the adaptive capacity too !

predicting future potential species range

Broennimann et al

(2007) Ecology Letters

(19)

Oddou-Muratorio & Davi 2014 Evol Appl

Physio-demo-genetic model : coupling functional model, population dynamics, genetic architecture and heredity

z

demography responds to environmental change

z

fitness dynamically results from the physiology

change in Tsum requirement (°C) for budburst after 6 generations

1 genetically variable parameter for budburst,

mortality driven by reserves, seed production driven by growth no evolution (h

2

=0) evolution

z

integrates inter-individual variation

z

physiological variables are evolvable

(20)

Sansilvestri et al (2015) Envir Sci Pol

Changing the reproductive material for planting

from knowledge to practice

(21)

1) Mediterranean forests facing climate change : a complex world

2) Approach by state and future-based scenarios : transdisciplinary knowledge integration

3) Dynamic approach and decision-based scenarios : knowledge integration across scales

4) Two conclusions

(22)

A process-based approach to assess the impact of practices on FGR drivers

Biodiversity (FGR) and adaptive management

short-term long-term adaptation diversity

local selection (desired) local selection (counter)

gene flow (adapted)

gene flow (maladapted) increase Ne

decrease Ne

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A process-based approach to assess the impact of practices on FGR drivers

Biodiversity (FGR) and adaptive management

short-term long-term adaptation diversity

local selection (desired) local selection (counter)

gene flow (adapted)

gene flow (maladapted)

increase Ne decrease Ne Practices

?

(24)

forestry practice induced changes impacted selection and genetic drift parameters

local density environment (competition) mating system (s, Nep)

allocation to reproduction spatial

structure

phenotypic selection environment (biotic / abiotic)

selective thinning systematic thinning pruning

mechanical or

chemical treatments

Ne ( σ

A

², F) σ

P

², σ

A

², β

i var. reproductive

success (V)

A process-based approach to assess the impact of practices on FGR drivers

Biodiversity (FGR) and adaptive management

Lefèvre et al 2014 Ann For Sci

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Practices Expected benefits Associated costs and risks

regulation of density and spatial distribution to

equalize reproductive success

- reduce genetic drift in small populations

- reduce inbreeding in the next generation

- no supplementary cost - slow down selection (prefer equalization per patch)

in heterogeneous

environment, dissociate areas of production &

areas of evolution, allow gene flow

- increase reproductive contribution of highly selected individuals

- simulations needed for a cost / benefit analysis in different contexts

save the lone tree, collect seeds for local assisted regeneration

- diversify the mating pairs

- promote adaptation to margibal conditions

- limited supplementary cost - risk of inbreeding if self- pollinated seeds not

purged

biodiversity (FGR) and adaptive management

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1) Mediterranean forests facing climate change : a complex world

2) Approach by state and future-based scenarios : transdisciplinary knowledge integration

3) Dynamic approach and decision-based scenarios : knowledge integration across scales

4) Two conclusions

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In a complex world, each new piece of knowledge does not simplify understanding => integration is needed :

¾

across disciplines, science and pragmatism

¾

integrate multiple processes across scales, trajectories

may be more predictable than future states

(28)

In a complex world, each new piece of knowledge does not simplify understanding => integration is needed :

¾

across disciplines, science and pragmatism

¾

integrate multiple processes across scales, trajectories may be more predictable than future states

Adaptation to a changing world requires a new paradigm :

¾

evaluate risk/opportunities and uncertainties as such

¾

think multi-dimensional : short-term / long-term impacts, multiple ecosystem functions and services

¾

manage multiple options

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