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HAL Id: hal-01176806

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01176806

Submitted on 10 Aug 2015

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Costs and Benefits of a Greener Alternative for the

Development of Vietnam’s power sector

Hoang Anh Nguyen Trinh, Minh Ha-Duong

To cite this version:

Hoang Anh Nguyen Trinh, Minh Ha-Duong. Costs and Benefits of a Greener Alternative for the

Development of Vietnam’s power sector. Our Common Future under Climate Change (CFCC), Jul

2015, Paris, France. 2015. �hal-01176806�

(2)

Electric Power Engineering

Costs and Benefits of a Greener Alternative

for the Development of Vietnam's power sector

Abstract—

In this study, BAU (a scenario based on current trends) and ALT (a greener alternative with more renewables, higher energy

efficiency) are developed. The external costs of CO

2

, NOx, SO

2

and PM

10

in the Vietnamese power sector are estimated at 20, 1328, 2047 and

1460 US$/ton, respectively. The authors find that the electricity price and the domestic trade balance in ALT are less sensitive to fluctuations

in the international price of coal than in BAU. The total costs accumulated between period 2010-2040 would be lower in ALT: 632 billion US$

compared with 974 billion US$. This difference arises from several factors: lower investment in new capacity (226 vs 306 billion US$); lower

local pollution costs (73 vs 137 billion US$); and lower expenditures on imported fuels (57 vs 115 billion US$). The outcomes of ALT are in

accord with the targets in the most recent Green Growth Strategy of Vietnam.

Key words: energy planning, energy efficiency, dynamic modelling, LEAP, Vietnam

Hoang Anh NGUYEN TRINH

1,2

, Minh HA-DUONG

1,2

OUR COMMON FUTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE – CFCC15 7-10 JULY 2015, PARIS - FRANCE

(1) International Research Center for Environment and Development, CIRED/CNRS, France

2) Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab, CleanED/USTH, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi

Email: hoanganhelec@gmail.com

Potential / Reserve

Depletion at 2010 rate

Coal

3,390 Mil.tons (91.5 Bil. GJ)

2087

Gas

610 Bil. m3 (21.1 Bil. GJ)

2086

Oil

460 Mil.tons (2.6 Bil. GJ)

2038

Potential capacity

2012 capacity

2. Domestic primary energy sources

Data on socio-economic and energy system Scenarios development and simulation in LEAP (2010-2040) Energy vulnerability indicators External cost indicators Historical & current

database of the power system

Cost & benefit

analysis

Vietnam‘s power

system

5. Method to assess the total costs of electricity

Poster ID Number: P-3303-16

0 2 4 6 8 1995 2000 2005 2010

times

Power demand GDP GDP/capita CO2e (energy sector) Population

Growth, Efficiency, Stability

Economic

Indicators: intensities, efficiency, diversification, security

1. Power consumption increase 1.5 times higher than GPD growth

6. Sustainability and Extenality analysis

Vietnam’s power system would be more vulnerable to fluctuations of

imported fuel price, depletion and scarcity of fossil energy in next 2030

Under the proposed alternative scenario, the sector would be less vulnerable

with its less costs

External costs of electricity generation are as important as their production

costs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Investment

costs

Domestic

fuel costs

Imported

fuel costs

O&M costs CO2 cost

Local

pollutants

cost

External

cost of

non-fossil

fuels

BAU

ALT

BAU

Investment costs

Fuel and O&M costs

External costs

ALT

Hydro

21,000 -24,000 MW

13,000 MW

Wind

400,000 MW

40 MW grid-connected

Solar

20,000 MW

(mostly not connected)

Bio-energy

5,000 MW

(mostly not connected)

Geothermal

2,000 MW

Primary energy suppy Fossil fuels Renewables Nuclear Energy conversion Centralized generation Thermal/ electric generation Decentralize generation End-users Residential & Administration Industry & Construction Commercial & Transport Agriculture & Fishery Heat

National Power Grid

EMISSIONS Other national power grids (ASEAN & China)

Electricity

Scenarios Demand side Supply side

Business As Usual scenario

BAU Medium demand forecast by the PDP VII

Continuation of Current Policies for power development in Vietnam

Alternative scenario ALT

Reduce power intensity (based on low-demand forecast of PDP VII)

No electricity generation from nuclear, less coal import and more renewables as compared to BAU

Equality, poverty, health

Biodiversity, natural sources, pollution Social Environ-mental Title in here Power sector Indicators: expenditures on electricity Indicators: emissions, external costs

3. Assumptions of the two scenarios

4. National energy planning: LEAP Model

6. Breakdown of total cost by scenario (billion US$2008)

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