New methodology for adjusting rotating shadowband irradiometer measurement

Texte intégral

(1)

HAL Id: hal-01553426

https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553426

Submitted on 7 Jul 2017

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- entific research documents, whether they are pub- lished or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

New methodology for adjusting rotating shadowband irradiometer measurement

Frank Vignola, Josh Peterson, Stefan Wilbert, Philippe Blanc, Norbert Geuder, Christian Kern

To cite this version:

Frank Vignola, Josh Peterson, Stefan Wilbert, Philippe Blanc, Norbert Geuder, et al.. New method- ology for adjusting rotating shadowband irradiometer measurement. AIP Conference Proceedings, American Institute of Physics, 2017, SOLARPACES 2016: International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, 1850 (1), pp.140021. �10.1063/1.4984529�. �hal-01553426�

(2)

1HZ0HWKRGRORJ\IRU$GMXVWLQJ5RWDWLQJ6KDGRZEDQG ,UUDGLRPHWHU0HDVXUHPHQWV

)UDQN9LJQROD

D

-RVK3HWHUVRQ

6WHIDQ:LOEHUW

3KLOLSSH%ODQF

1RUEHUW*HXGHU

DQG&KULV.HUQ

1PhD, Department of Physics, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97403-1274, USA.

2DLR, Institute of Solar Research, Qualification, 04200 Tabernas, Spain

3MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. = Centre Observational, Impact, Energy, France

4Hochschule für Technik Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany

5Irradiance, USA

D&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRUIHY#XRUHJRQHGX

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

,1752'8&7,21

7KHURWDWLQJVKDGRZEDQGLUUDGLRPHWHU56,LVIUHTXHQWO\GHSOR\HGWRPHDVXUHJOREDOKRUL]RQWDOLUUDGLDQFH*+, DQGGLIIXVHKRUL]RQWDOLUUDGLDQFH'I+,WKDWDUHXVHGWRFDOFXODWHWKHGLUHFWQRUPDOLUUDGLDQFH'1,$Q56,PHDVXUHV WKH*+,LUUDGLDQFHDQGDEDQGURWDWHVDSSUR[LPDWHO\RQFHDPLQXWHLQIURQWRIWKHS\UDQRPHWHUWREORFNGLUHFWVXQOLJKW DQGWKH'I+,LVWKHQPHDVXUHG7KH'LUHFW+RUL]RQWDO,UUDGLDQFH'U+,LVWKHQFDOFXODWHGE\VXEWUDFWLQJWKH'I+, LUUDGLDQFHIURPWKH*+,LUUDGLDQFH7KH'1,LVREWDLQHGE\GLYLGLQJWKHFDOFXODWHG'U+,E\WKHFRVLQHRIWKHVRODU ]HQLWKDQJOH6=$VHH(T

ൌ*+,'I+,&RV6=$

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

3KRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHUVXWLOL]HVRODUFHOOVDQGSURGXFHVLJQDOVWKDWDUHURXJKO\SURSRUWLRQDOWRLQFLGHQW VRODULUUDGLDQFH+RZHYHUDVZLWKVRODUFHOOVDPRUHGHWDLOHGDQDO\VLVRISKRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHUVVKRZWKDW WKH\UHVSRQGWRWKHQXPEHURISKRWRQVDWHDFKZDYHOHQJWKDQGQRWWKHHQHUJ\FRQWDLQHGLQHDFKSKRWRQ&RPSDULVRQV

(3)

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

)RUPDQ\XVHVRILUUDGLDQFHGDWDLWLVWKHWRWDOHQHUJ\WKDWLVLPSRUWDQWDQGQRWWKHQXPEHURISKRWRQVDWHDFK ZDYHOHQJWKLQFLGHQWEURDGEDQGVRODUHQHUJ\LVUHTXLUHGIRUPRGHOOLQJVRODUWKHUPDOV\VWHPVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLQJVRODU SRZHUSODQWVDQGWKHYDOLGDWLRQRIPRGHOGHULYHG'1,YDOXHVDQGWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKLVHQHUJ\LVUHOHYDQWWR WKHRXWSXWRIDSKRWRYROWDLFPRGXOHRUDSKRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHU

*RRG '1, UHVRXUFH LQIRUPDWLRQ DUH UHTXLUHG WR HYDOXDWH SHUVSHFWLYH ORFDWLRQV IRU FRQFHQWUDWLQJ VRODU WKHUPDO HOHFWULF V\VWHPV 56,V DUH RIWHQ FKRVHQ EHFDXVH RI WKHLU SULFH DQG DELOLW\ WR RSHUDWH UHPRWHO\ ZLWK PLQLPDO PDLQWHQDQFH6HYHUDO VWXGLHV KDYHEHHQSXEOLVKHG> @ RQ PHWKRGV WR FRUUHFW WKH VSHFWUDO GHSHQGHQFH RI 56, LQVWUXPHQWVWRREWDLQPRUHDFFXUDWH*+,'I+,DQG'1,PHDVXUHPHQWV

7KHEHVW*+,YDOXHVDUHREWDLQHGE\SURMHFWLQJWKH'1,IURPDQDEVROXWHFDYLW\UDGLRPHWHURQWRDKRUL]RQWDO VXUIDFHDQGDGGLQJDGLIIXVHLUUDGLDQFHREWDLQHGIURPS\UDQRPHWHUZLWKPLQLPDOWKHUPDORIIVHWDQGDJRRGFRVLQHDQG VSHFWUDO UHVSRQVH &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH SKRWRGLRGH S\UDQRPHWHU DQG WKH UHIHUHQFH *+, YDOXHV LGHQWLILHG VHYHUDO V\VWHPDWLFHUURUVZLWKWKHVHLQVWUXPHQWV&RUUHFWLRQDOJRULWKPVZHUHGHYHORSHGWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHVHV\VWHPDWLFHUURUV

>@7KHVHSURFHGXUHVZRUNHGZHOOIRUWKHJOREDOKRUL]RQWDOLUUDGLDQFH*+,DQGLQFOXGHIXQFWLRQVWKDWFRUUHFW WKHHIIHFWVRIWHPSHUDWXUHVSHFWUDOGHSHQGHQFHDQGFRVLQHUHVSRQVHRIWKHVHSKRWRGLRGHS\UDQRPHWHUV

:KLOHWKHVHFRUUHFWLRQDOJRULWKPVDUHYHU\XVHIXOTXHVWLRQVUHPDLQDERXWWKHDSSOLFDELOLW\RIWKHVHFRUUHFWLRQ DOJRULWKPVWRORFDWLRQVZLWKGLVSDUDWHFOLPDWHFRQGLWLRQV

/DWHU VWXGLHV > @ VKRZHG WKDW SKRWRGLRGHEDVHG S\UDQRPHWHUV V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ XQGHUHVWLPDWH WKH GLIIXVH LUUDGLDQFHXQGHUFOHDUVNLHVE\WR8QGHUFOHDUVN\FRQGLWLRQV5D\OHLJKVFDWWHULQJLVWKHGRPLQDQWVRXUFHIRU WKHGLIIXVHLUUDGLDQFH6LQFH5D\OHLJKVFDWWHULQJLVKLJKO\ZDYHOHQJWKGHSHQGHQWȜWKHGLIIXVHLUUDGLDQFHKDVD ODUJHUFRQWULEXWLRQRISKRWRQVLQWKHEOXHUHJLRQRIWKHVSHFWUXPDVFRPSDUHGWRWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIVXQOLJKWFRPLQJ GLUHFWO\IURPWKHVXQ7KHGLIIHUHQWEHWZHHQWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH'I+,LUUDGLDQFHXQGHUFOHDUVNLHVDQGWKH '1, VSHFWUDO LUUDGLDQFH LV WKH UHDVRQ WKDW SKRWRGLRGH S\UDQRPHWHUV XQGHUHVWLPDWH WKH 'I+, XQGHU FOHDU VNLHV FRQGLWLRQV

6LQFHWKH'I+,FRQWULEXWLRQLVRQO\DURXQGWRRI*+,RQXQGHUFOHDUVNLHVWKHHUURUDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH XQGHUHVWLPDWH RI WKH 'I+, UHVXOWV LQ DQ LQFUHDVH HVWLPDWH RI WKH LQVWUXPHQW¶V *+, UHVSRQVLYLW\ 8QGHU FORXG\

FRQGLWLRQVWKH'I+,DQG*+,DUHWKHVDPHDQGWKHUHIRUHWKHSKRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHUVSURYLGHGIDLUO\UHOLDEOH PHDVXUHVRIWKH*+,7RSURYLGHDPRUHDFFXUDWHGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHS\UDQRPHWHU¶VEHKDYLRUWZRFDOLEUDWLRQVFRQVWDQWV DUHUHDOO\UHTXLUHGRQHIRUWKH'U+,DQGRQHIRUWKH'I+,FRPSRQHQW

7KHVHVSHFWUDOHIIHFWVEHJLQWRDVVXPHDQLPSRUWDQFHZKHQSKRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHUVZHUHLQFRUSRUDWHG LQWR5RWDWLQJ6KDGRZEDQG,UUDGLRPHWHUV56,7KHSUREOHPVFDXVHGE\WKHUHGXFHGUHVSRQVLYLW\WRGLIIXVHLUUDGLDQFH ZHUHVRRQGLVFRYHUHGDQGWKHFRUUHFWLRQPRGHOV>DQG@ZHUHXVHGWRDGMXVWWKH56,PHDVXUHPHQWV6LJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQWVLQWKHDFFXUDF\RI56,UHDGLQJZHUHPDGH)RUDGHWDLOHGGLVFXVVLRQRI56,VVHH>@

&XUUHQW PHWKRGRORJLHV WR REWDLQ WKH DGMXVWPHQW DOJRULWKPV WKDW DUH XVHG WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH V\VWHPDWLF HUURUV DVVRFLDWHGZLWKSKRWRGLRGHS\UDQRPHWHUVXWLOL]HGE\56,VLQFOXGH

x &RUUHFWLRQVWRWKHJOREDODQGGLIIXVHPHDVXUHPHQWVWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHWHPSHUDWXUHGHSHQGHQFHRIWKH S\UDQRPHWHU

x 3UHVFULSWLRQWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHVSHFWUDOGHSHQGHQFHZLWKFKDQJHLQDLUPDVVRIWKHSKRWRGLRGHS\UDQRPHWHU RQ*+,PHDVXUHPHQWV

x )RUPXODVWRFRUUHFWWKHFRVLQHUHVSRQVHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHOHQVRSWLFV

x $GMXVWPHQWVWRWKH'I+,PHDVXUHPHQWVWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI'I+,DVRSSRVHG WRWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH*+,

1RPHQFODWXUH

'1,'LUHFW1RUPDO,UUDGLDQFH 56,5RWDWLQJ6KDGRZEDQG,UUDGLRPHWHU 'U+,'LUHFW+RUL]RQWDO,UUDGLDQFH 5635RWDWLQJ6KDGRZEDQG3\UDQRPHWHU

*+,*OREDO+RUL]RQWDO,UUDGLDQFH $+)$EVROXWH&DYLW\5DGLRPHWHU 'I+,'LIIXVH+RUL]RQWDO,UUDGLDQFH &+3.LSS =RQHQS\UKHOLRPHWHU

6=$6RODU=HQLWK$QJOH 5/,&25Ȝ±/,&253\UDQRPHWHU¶V6SHFWUDO5HVSRQVLYLW\

7DPE$PELHQW7HPSHUDWXUH 5$YHUDJH5HVSRQVLYLW\

Ȝ:DYHOHQJWK

(4)

7KH LPSURYHPHQW REWDLQHG E\ XVLQJ WKHVH FRUUHFWLRQV LV VLJQLILFDQW DQG WHVWV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG WR YDOLGDWH WKH LPSURYHPHQWV>@

2WKHUPHWKRGV>@KDYHEHHQGLVFXVVHGDERXWFDOLEUDWLQJDSKRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHUEHVLGHVWKHVWDQGDUG S\UDQRPHWHUFDOLEUDWLRQPHWKRGRIFRPSDULQJDJDLQVWDUHIHUHQFHVWDQGDUGS\UDQRPHWHU

0DQ\RIWKHVHLQVWUXPHQWVDUHGHSOR\HGLQDUHDVZLWKDWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQVWKDWGHYLDWHJUHDWO\IURPDUHDVZKHUH WKHLQVWUXPHQWVZHUHGHYHORSHGDQGWHVWHG6LQFHWKHDOJRULWKPVZHUHPDLQO\GHYHORSHGDQGWHVWHGLQWKHPLGQRUWKHUQ KHPLVSKHUHLWPD\EHDGYDQWDJHRXVWRPRGLI\WKHDGMXVWPHQWDOJRULWKPVIRUDUHDVWKDWKDYHVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQW DWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQV>@7KLVLVVSHFLILFDOO\WUXHIRUVSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWVWKDWGHSHQGRQWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQ RIWKHLQFLGHQWLUUDGLDQFH

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

1(:0(7+2'2/2*<)25&255(&7,2156,6<67(0$7,&(55256

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

,WLVXVHIXOWRPDNHWKHWHPSHUDWXUHDGMXVWPHQWVEHIRUHHYDOXDWLQJDQGLQFRUSRUDWLQJWKHRWKHUDGMXVWPHQWVEHFDXVH WKHWHPSHUDWXUHDGMXVWPHQWVDUHDVVXPHGWREHLGHQWLFDOIRUERWKWKH'U+,DQG'I+,FRPSRQHQWV7KHYDOLGLW\RIWKLV DVVXPSWLRQLVDWRSLFIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK

7KHQH[WVWHSLQWKLVDOWHUQDWHDSSURDFKLVWRXVHWKH56,WRSURYLGHWKH'U+,DQG'I+,FRPSRQHQWVIURPWKH SKRWRGLRGHEDVHG S\UDQRPHWHU DQG FDOLEUDWH HDFK FRPSRQHQW DJDLQVW UHIHUHQFH '1, DQG 'I+, PHDVXUHPHQWV %\

HYDOXDWLQJHDFKFRPSRQHQWVHSDUDWHO\DPRUHGLUHFWDSSURDFKLVSURYLGHGIRUDVFHUWDLQLQJWKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQHDFK FRPSRQHQWDQGWKLVFDQOHDGWRLQGHSHQGHQWWHVWLQJRIWKHDGMXVWPHQWDOJRULWKPV7KLVLVGLIIHUHQWIURPFDOLEUDWLQJWKH S\UDQRPHWHU¶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

ILOWHUVDQGSDVVWKHLUUDGLDQFHWKURXJKZLWKRXWVLJQLILFDQWO\DOWHULQJWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQ8QGHUFOHDUVNLHVWKH 'I+,FRQWULEXWLRQLVVPDOODQGWKH'U+,DYHUDJHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\GRPLQDWHVWKH*+,UHVSRQVLYLW\8QGHUFORXG\

VNLHV WKH 'I+, DYHUDJH VSHFWUDO UHVSRQVLYLW\ LV VLPLODU WR WKH 'U+,¶V 7KHUHIRUH WKH FDOLEUDWLRQV IRXQG IRU *+, PHDVXUHPHQWVXQGHUFOHDUVNLHVZKHUHWKHVSHFWUDO'U+,UHVSRQVLYLW\GRPLQDWHVZRUNVZHOOXQGHUFOHDUDQGFORXG\

FRQGLWLRQV

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

(5)

02'(/,1*7+('1,&20321(17

7RGHPRQVWUDWHWKHQHZPHWKRGRORJ\LUUDGLDQFHGDWDIURP(XJHQH2UHJRQ86$DQG3D\HUQH6ZLW]HUODQGZHUH XWLOL]HG $Q $VFHQVLRQ 5RWDWLQJ 6KDGRZEDQG 3\UDQRPHWHU 563 ZLWKRXW DQ\ DGMXVWPHQWV LV RSHUDWHG DORQJVLGH LQVWUXPHQWVDWWKHVRODUWHVWIDFLOLW\LQ(XJHQH'XULQJWKLVSHULRGDFDOLEUDWLRQXVLQJDQDEVROXWHFDYLW\UDGLRPHWHU (SSOH\$+)ZDVXVHGIRUWKHUHIHUHQFH'1,PHDVXUHPHQWVDQGWKHUHIHUHQFH'I+,FRPHVIURPDVKDGRZEDOOVKDGHG 6FKHQN6WDUS\UDQRPHWHU

7KHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI'1,LVVRPHZKDWGHSHQGHQWRQDWPRVSKHULFZDWHUYDSRUDQGDHURVROVLWLVODUJHO\

LQGHSHQGHQWRIFORXGFRYHUEHFDXVHFORXGVFDXVH'1,WRVFDWWHUDQGEHFRPH'I+,DQGPLQLPDOO\FKDQJHWKHVSHFWUDO GLVWULEXWLRQRI'1,7KLVLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJZKHUHWKHDYHUDJH'1,VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\IDOOVLQDQDUURZEDQG WKDWLVPDLQO\DIXQFWLRQRIVRODU]HQLWKDQJOH7KHGDWDLVIURPDOOZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVZKHUHWKHVXPRIWKHVSHFWUDO '1,IURPWRQPLVJUHDWHUWKDQ:P7KHVSHFWUDOUDQJHXVHGWRQPLVWKDWRIWKH302' VSHFWUDOUDGLRPHWHUXVHGWRREWDLQWKH'1,VSHFWUDOGDWD'LVFXVVLRQRIWKHVHOHFWHGZDYHOHQJWKUDQJHDQGGDWDXVHG WRJHQHUDWHWKLVSORWFDQEHIRXQGLQUHIHUHQFH>@

7KH QHZ PHWKRGRORJ\ LV EDVHG XSRQ WKH FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI WKH VSHFWUDO UHVSRQVH RI WKH SKRWRGLRGHEDVHG S\UDQRPHWHU DQG WKH V\VWHPDWLF FKDQJH LQ VSHFWUDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI LQFLGHQW LUUDGLDQFH RYHU WKH GD\ 7KH DYHUDJH UHVSRQVLYLW\RIWKHSKRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHUWRWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHLQFLGHQWUDGLDWLRQLVGHSHQGHQW XSRQWKHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVHRIWKHS\UDQRPHWHU5/,&25ȜDVVKRZQLQ(TQZKHUHȜLVWKHZDYHOHQJWK7KH'1,DQG 'I+,VSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHGLIIHUHQWDQGLQWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\WKH'1,DQG'I+,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUVDUH VWXGLHGVHSDUDWHO\PDNLQJLWHDVLHUWRH[DPLQHWKHHIIHFWVRIVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRQHDFKFRPSRQHQWZLWKRXWEHLQJ VLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKHRWKHUFRPSRQHQW7KLVPHWKRGUHVXOWVLQWZRFDOLEUDWLRQFRQVWDQWVRQHIRUWKH'1,DQG DQRWKHUIRUWKH'I+,

¦ ¦

O O O

DNI DNI

R RLICOR

7RJHWDQLGHDRIWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHUHVSRQVLYLW\RIDSKRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHUWRWKHLQVWUXPHQW¶VVSHFWUDO UHVSRQVLYLW\WZRVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLWLHVZHUHH[DPLQHG7KHWKHRUHWLFDO/,&25VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\ZDVDYDLODEOH IURPWKHPDQXIDFWXUHU7KH1DWLRQDO5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\/DERUDWRU\15(/KDVPHDVXUHGWKHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\

RIVHYHUDO/,&25S\UDQRPHWHUVDQGRQHPHDVXUHPHQWRIWKHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\ZDVFKRVHQWRFRPSDUHDJDLQVW WKHGDWDIURP/,&25VHH)LJ7KHFRQVHTXHQFHRIVHOHFWLQJDVSHFLILF/,B&25VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\LVLOOXVWUDWHG LQ)LJZKHUHWKHUHVXOWVIURPWKHWZRVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQVLQ)LJDUHXVHG7KHPHDVXUHGVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\

VKRZVDQHQKDQFHPHQWRQWKHEOXHHQGRIWKHVSHFWUDODQGWKHQHDULQIUDUHGHQGRIWKHVSHFWUXPDVFRPSDUHGWRWKH

),*85(3ORWRIFDOFXODWHG'1,UHVSRQVLYLW\DVDIXQFWLRQRI VRODU]HQLWKDQJOHIRU'1,!:P*HQHULF/,&25VSHFWUDO

UHVSRQVLYLW\FRPELQHGZLWKVSHFWUDO'1,GDWD

),*85(3ORWRIJHQHULFDQGPHDVXUHG/,&25VSHFWUDO UHVSRQVLYLWLHV

Ϭ͘ϴ Ϭ͘ϵ ϭ͘Ϭ ϭ͘ϭ ϭ͘Ϯ ϭ͘ϯ ϭ͘ϰ ϭ͘ϱ

ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ

>/ͲKZE/ZĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀŝƚLJEŽƌŵĂůŝnjĞĚƚŽϰϱq

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ ĂůĐƵůĂƚĞĚ>/ͲKZE/ZĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀŝƚLJEŽƌŵĂůŝnjĞĚƚŽϰϱq

ǀƐ^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞͲ WĂLJĞƌŶĞ͕^ǁŝƚnjĞƌůĂŶĚͲ ϮϬϭϮ

Ϭй ϭϬй ϮϬй ϯϬй ϰϬй ϱϬй ϲϬй ϳϬй ϴϬй ϵϬй ϭϬϬй

ϮϬϬ ϯϬϬ ϰϬϬ ϱϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϳϬϬ ϴϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϭϬϬϬ ϭϭϬϬ ϭϮϬϬ ϭϯϬϬ ZĞůĂƚŝǀĞZĞƐƉŽŶƐĞƚŽ/ƌƌĂĚŝĂŶĐĞ ;йͿ

tĂǀĞůĞŶŐƚŚ;ŶŵͿ

>/ͲKZWLJƌĂŶŽŵĞƚĞƌ^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůZĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀŝƚLJ

'ĞŶĞƌŝĐ>/ͲKZ^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůZĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀŝƚLJ DĞĂƐƵƌĞĚ>/ͲKZ^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůZĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀŝƚLJ;EZ>Ϳ

(6)

JHQHULFHVWLPDWHRIWKHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\7KHDUHDXQGHUWKHWZRFXUYHVLVGLIIHUHQWDQGWKLVGLIIHUHQFHLVWDNHQ LQWRDFFRXQWZKHQWKHFRQYROXWHGGDWDDUHQRUPDOL]HG

7KHDYHUDJH'1,UHVSRQVLYLW\ZDVFDOFXODWHGXVLQJ(TXDWLRQZLWKDZDYHOHQJWKUDQJHIURPWRQPDQG WKHVSHFWUDOGDWDFDPHIURPD/,VSHFWURUDGLRPHWHU6LQFHWKH/,RQO\PHDVXUHVLUUDGLDQFHLQWKHWR QPUDQJHWKH60$576PRGHO>@ZDVXVHGWRH[WHQGWKHUDQJHWRQPWRFRYHUWKHZDYHOHQJWKVZKHUH WKHS\UDQRPHWHUUHVSRQGV7KHPRGHOHGDYHUDJH'1,UHVSRQVLYLW\ZDVWKHQFRPSDUHGWRPHDVXUHG'1,LUUDGLDQFH RYHUWKHGD\

7KHDYHUDJH'1,UHVSRQVLYLW\ZDVFDOFXODWHGXVLQJ(TQZLWKDPRGLILHGZDYHOHQJWKUDQJHRIWRQP LQVWHDGRIWRQPDQGWKHVSHFWUDOGDWDFDPHIURPD/,VSHFWURUDGLRPHWHU6LQFHWKH/,RQO\

PHDVXUHVLUUDGLDQFHLQWKHWRQPUDQJHWKH60$576PRGHO>@ZDVXVHGWRH[WHQGWKHUDQJHWRQP WRFRYHUWKHZDYHOHQJWKVZKHUHWKHS\UDQRPHWHUUHVSRQGV7KHPRGHOHGDYHUDJH'1,UHVSRQVLYLW\ZDVWKHQFRPSDUHG WRPHDVXUHG'1,LUUDGLDQFHRYHUWKHGD\

7RGHWHUPLQHWKHDYHUDJH'1,UHVSRQVLYLW\DFDOLEUDWLRQZDVSHUIRUPHGRQ-XO\XVLQJWKH(SSOH\$+) FDYLW\UDGLRPHWHUIRUWKHUHIHUHQFHPLQ'1,YDOXHVDQGDVKDGHG6FKHQN6WDUS\UDQRPHWHUIRUWKHUHIHUHQFH'I+, YDOXHV7KH'1,YDOXHIURPWKH56,ZDVREWDLQHGIURPWKHXQFRUUHFWHG'I+,DQG*+,XVLQJ(TQDQGDFFXUDWH6=$

FDOFXODWLRQV>@7KHWHPSHUDWXUHGHSHQGHQFHRIWKHS\UDQRPHWHUZDVWKHQWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWE\PXOWLSO\LQJWKHGDWD YDOXHVE\

7DPE

ZKHUH7DPELVWKHDPELHQWWHPSHUDWXUHLQ&HOVLXV7KHSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKLVIRUPXODZHUHGHWHUPLQHGLQDVWXG\E\.LQJ HWDO>@ZKHUH³7´LVLQWHUSUHWHGDVDPELHQWWHPSHUDWXUH

7KHQH[WVWHSLQWKHFDOLEUDWLRQSURFHGXUHZDVWRDGMXVWWKHUHVSRQVLYLW\RIWKH56,S\UDQRPHWHUVRWKDWWKHUDWLR RIWKH56,'1,YDOXHVGLYLGHGE\WKHUHIHUHQFH'1,YDOXHIURPWKHFDYLW\UDGLRPHWHUZDVHTXDOWRZKHQWKH6=$

ZDVHTXDOWRq7KHqDQJOHZDVFKRVHQDVLWLVRIWHQXVHGZKHQFDOLEUDWLQJS\UDQRPHWHUV)LJXUHLVDSORWRIWKH WKUHHPRGHOHGDQGRQHPHDVXUHGVHWRI'1,YDOXHVGLYLGHGE\WKHUHIHUHQFH'1,YDOXHVIURPWKHFDYLW\UDGLRPHWHU 7KHFXUYHVRQWKHSORWDUHPRGHOHGHVWLPDWHVRIWKHVSHFWUDOHIIHFWXVLQJ(TXDWLRQXVLQJDWRQPUDQJH 7KHIRUPXODIRUWKHPRGHOVZHUHWDNHQIURPKDOIKRXUO\'1,VSHFWUDOYDOXHVFDOFXODWHGIRU(XJHQHLQ-XO\

XVLQJWKH60$576PRGHO%RWKWKHWKHRUHWLFDODQGPHDVXUHG/,&25VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLWLHVZHUHFRQYROXWHGZLWK WKHVSHFWUDOGDWDDQGWKHUHVXOWLQJDYHUDJHUHVSRQVLYLWLHVGHWHUPLQHG$JDLQWKHVHUHVSRQVLYLWLHVDQGWKH.LQJDLUPDVV IXQFWLRQ>@ZHUHQRUPDOL]HGWRDWD6=$RIƒ7KH.LQJDLUPDVVDGMXVWPHQWIXQFWLRQPDWFKHVWKHGDWDIDLUO\ZHOO DQGLVWKHEDVLVIRU56,DGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUV7KHWKHRUHWLFDO/,&25VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\ZDVQRWDYHU\JRRGILWWR WKH GDWD VR RQO\ WKH PHDVXUHG /,&25 VSHFWUDO UHVSRQVLYLW\ DQG WKH .LQJ PRGHO ZLOO EH XVHG LQ WKH UHVW RI WKH GLVFXVVLRQV

7KHPHDVXUHGDQGPRGHOHG/,&25VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\DVVKRZQLQ)LJGRQ¶WVHHPWKDWPXFKGLIIHUHQWEXW WKHDYHUDJHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\GHWHUPLQHGIRUHDFKFDQEHVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQW7KHUHIRUHKDYLQJJRRGVSHFWUDO

),*85(5DWLRRI'1,HVWLPDWHRUPHDVXUHGLYLGHGE\WKH UHIHUHQFH'1,QRUPDOL]HGWRDWž7KH.LQJDLUPDVV

FRUUHFWLRQIXQFWLRQLVVKRZQKHUHIRUFRPSDULVRQ

),*85(5DWLRRI'1,YDOXHVIURPWKH&+3S\UKHOLRPHWHU DQGWKH$+)FDYLW\UDGLRPHWHUXQGHUFOHDUVNLHV

Ϭ͘ϵϳ Ϭ͘ϵϴ Ϭ͘ϵϵ ϭ͘ϬϬ ϭ͘Ϭϭ ϭ͘ϬϮ ϭ͘Ϭϯ

ϮϬΣ ϮϱΣ ϯϬΣ ϯϱΣ ϰϬΣ ϰϱΣ ϱϬΣ ϱϱΣ ϲϬΣ

E/ZĂƚŝŽƚŽZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞEŽƌŵĂůŝnjĞĚƚŽϰϱq

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ

ZĂƚŝŽŽĨE/ĨƌŽŵZ^/ƚŽZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞE/ŽŵƉĂƌĞĚŐĂŝŶƐƚ DŽĚĞůWƌĞĚŝĐƚŝŽŶƐƵŐĞŶĞ͕KZͲ :ƵůLJϭϬ͕ϮϬϭϰ

DŽĚĞůdŚĞŽƌĞĐƚŝĐĂů^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůZĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀŝƚLJ <ŝŶŐŝƌŵĂƐƐ&ƵŶĐƚŝŽŶ DŽĚĞůDĞĂƐƵƌĞĚ^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůZĞƐƉŽŶƐŝǀŝƚLJ Z^WE/;ƚĐͿͬZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞE/

LJсͲϬ͘ϬϬϬϬϬϬϵϲϵdžϯнϬ͘ϬϬϬϭϭϭϲϬϱdžϮͲ Ϭ͘ϬϬϰϭϯϴϮϲϵdžнϭ͘ϬϰϳϬϳϲϯϭϲ ZϸсϬ͘ϯϴϮϬϲϭϭϯϮ

LJсϬ͘ϬϬϬϭϱϰdžнϬ͘ϵϵϲϱϮϰ ZϸсϬ͘ϴϯϱϰϭϵ

Ϭ͘ϵϵϰ Ϭ͘ϵϵϲ Ϭ͘ϵϵϴ ϭ͘ϬϬϬ ϭ͘ϬϬϮ ϭ͘ϬϬϰ ϭ͘ϬϬϲ ϭ͘ϬϬϴ

ϮϬΣ ϮϱΣ ϯϬΣ ϯϱΣ ϰϬΣ ϰϱΣ ϱϬΣ ϱϱΣ ϲϬΣ

ZĂƚŝŽE/,WϭͬE/,&

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ

ŽŵƉĂƌŝƐŽŶŽĨE/ĨƌŽŵ,WϭWLJƌŚĞůŝŽŵĞƚĞƌĂŶĚ,&

ĂǀŝƚLJZĂĚŝŽŵĞƚĞƌƵŐĞŶĞ͕KZͲ :ƵůLJϭϬ͕ϮϬϭϰ

ĨƚĞƌŶŽŽŶ DŽƌŶŝŶŐ

(7)

UHVSRQVHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHS\UDQRPHWHUFDQEHLPSRUWDQWDQGDJRRGPDWFKEHWZHHQWKHGDWDDQGPRGHOLVLPSRUWDQW ,WDOVRVKRZVWKDWDJRRGFDOLEUDWLRQFDQEHREWDLQHGLIDQDSSURSULDWHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\IRUWKHLQVWUXPHQWKDVEHHQ FKRVHQ

,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHUHLVRQO\D“GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKH56,'1,YDOXHVDQGWKHUHIHUHQFH'1,YDOXHV RYHUWKHƒWRž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

8VLQJWKHDGMXVWHG&+3GDWDDVUHIHUHQFH'1,GDWDWKH56,'1,YDOXHVFDQEHVWXGLHGRYHUWKHZKROHGD\DQG QRWMXVWZKHQWKHUHZDVFDYLW\GDWDVHH)LJ)URPqWRqWKHDJUHHPHQWEHWZHHQWKHFRUUHFWHG&+3YDOXHV DQGWKHDGMXVWHG56,'1,YDOXHVLVEHWWHUWKDQDERXWWKHVDPHUDQJHRIDJUHHPHQWEHWZHHQWKHXQDGMXVWHG&+3 YDOXHVDQGWKH$+)&DYLW\'1,YDOXHV)URPqWRDERXWqWKHVSHFWUDOFRUUHFWLRQPRGHOVWLOOSURGXFHVUHVXOWVWKDW DUHZLWKLQ“RIWKHDGMXVWHG&+3YDOXHV$VZLWKPRVWS\UDQRPHWHUVDWODUJHU6=$WKHGHYLDWLRQIURPWUXHFRVLQH UHVSRQVHVWDUWVWRDIIHFWWKHUHDGLQJV

),*85(5HODWLYHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHUDWLRRIPRGHOHG DQGPHDVXUHG'1,GLYLGHGE\WKHUHIHUHQFH'1,GDWDIURPD

&+3S\UKHOLRPHWHUSORWWHGDJDLQVW6=$

),*85($QJOHRILQFLGHQWDGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUIRUWKH56,'1, FRPSRQHQWIRU6=$EHWZHHQžDQGžDIWHUWKHVSHFWUDO

DGMXVWPHQWLVPDGH

),*85($QJOHRILQFLGHQWDGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUIRUWKH56,'1, FRPSRQHQWIRU6=$EHWZHHQžDQGžDIWHUWKHVSHFWUDO

DGMXVWPHQWLVPDGH

),*85( &RPSDULVRQRIDGMXVWHG56,'1,YDOXHVEODFN GRWVPLQXVWKH&+3'1,PHDVXUHPHQWVDQGXQDGMXVWHG56,

'1,YDOXHVUHGGRWVIRU-XO\LQ(XJHQH2UHJRQ

Ͳϳ͘Ϭй Ͳϲ͘Ϭй Ͳϱ͘Ϭй Ͳϰ͘Ϭй Ͳϯ͘Ϭй ͲϮ͘Ϭй Ͳϭ͘Ϭй Ϭ͘Ϭй ϭ͘Ϭй Ϯ͘Ϭй ϯ͘Ϭй ϰ͘Ϭй ϱ͘Ϭй ϲ͘Ϭй ϳ͘Ϭй

ϮϬΣ ϮϱΣ ϯϬΣ ϯϱΣ ϰϬΣ ϰϱΣ ϱϬΣ ϱϱΣ ϲϬΣ ϲϱΣ ϳϬΣ ϳϱΣ ϴϬΣ ϴϱΣ ϵϬΣ DŽĚĞůĞĚͬZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞͲDĞĂƐƵƌĞĚͬZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ ĂƐƵƌĞĚͬZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ

йŝĨĨĞƌĞŶĐĞƐĞƚǁĞĞŶZ^/ĚũƵƐƚĞĚĂŶĚDĞĂƐƵƌĞĚE/

ƵŐĞŶĞ͕KZ:ƵůLJϭϬ͕ϮϬϭϰ

<ŝŶŐŝƌDĂƐƐDŽĚĞů ^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůĚũƵƐƚŵĞŶƚDŽĚĞů

LJсϬ͘ϬϬϬϬϬϬϬϬϬϳϱϰdžϲͲ Ϭ͘ϬϬϬϬϬϬϮϱϵϬϰϮdžϱнϬ͘ϬϬϬϬϯϲϳϳϯϵϭϯdžϰͲ Ϭ͘ϬϬϮϳϲϭϯϵϴϮϳϵdžϯнϬ͘ϭϭϱϲϰϲϭϵϰϵϯϵdžϮͲ Ϯ͘ϱϲϬϲϮϴϬϰϯϰϭϭdžнϮϰ͘ϰϭϴϮϭϬϮϭϳϯϳϮ

Ϭ͘ϵϳ Ϭ͘ϵϴ Ϭ͘ϵϵ ϭ͘ϬϬ ϭ͘Ϭϭ ϭ͘ϬϮ ϭ͘Ϭϯ ϭ͘Ϭϰ ϭ͘Ϭϱ ϭ͘Ϭϲ ϭ͘Ϭϳ ϭ͘Ϭϴ

ϰϬΣ ϰϱΣ ϱϬΣ ϱϱΣ ϲϬΣ ϲϱΣ ϳϬΣ ϳϱΣ ϴϬΣ ϴϱΣ ϵϬΣ E/ZĂƚŝŽZ^/ͬZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞ ĞĐƚƌĂůDŽĚĞůĞĚƐƚŝŵĂƚĞ

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ E/ZĂƚŝŽZ^/E/dĞŵƉĞĂƚƵƌĞĚũƵƐƚĞĚͬZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞE/

ŝǀŝĚĞĚďLJ^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůDŽĚĞůƐƚŝŵĂƚĞƐϰϬqƚŽϴϮq

ͲϭϬϬ ͲϴϬ ͲϲϬ ͲϰϬ ͲϮϬ Ϭ ϮϬ ϰϬ ϲϬ ϴϬ ϭϬϬ

ϮϬ Ϯϱ ϯϬ ϯϱ ϰϬ ϰϱ ϱϬ ϱϱ ϲϬ ϲϱ ϳϬ ϳϱ ϴϬ ϴϱ ϵϬ ĞůƚĂEDŽĚĞůĞĚͲZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞͿ;tͬŵϮͿ

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ

E/ŽŵƉĂƌŝƐŽŶͲ ĚũƵƐƚĞĚZ^/Ͳ ,WϭE/ĂƚĂ ƵŐĞŶĞ͕KZ:ƵůLJ͕ϮϬϭϰ

E/;Z^/:ƵƐƚdĞŵƉĚũƵƐƚĞĚͲ,WϭͿ E/;Z^/ĚũƵƐƚĞĚͲ,WϭͿ LJсͲϬ͘ϬϬϱϱϲϵϲdžϮнϬ͘ϴϳϰϰϬϳϯdžͲ ϯϯ͘ϭϴϯϵϲϴϲ

ZϸсϬ͘ϵϴϳϬϭϯϮ

Ϭ͘ϲϱ Ϭ͘ϳϬ Ϭ͘ϳϱ Ϭ͘ϴϬ Ϭ͘ϴϱ Ϭ͘ϵϬ Ϭ͘ϵϱ ϭ͘ϬϬ ϭ͘Ϭϱ ϭ͘ϭϬ

ϴϬΣ ϴϭΣ ϴϮΣ ϴϯΣ ϴϰΣ ϴϱΣ ϴϲΣ ϴϳΣ ϴϴΣ ϴϵΣ ϵϬΣ ZĂƚŝŽEƌŽŵZ^/ͬZĞĨĞƌĞŶĐĞE/ ĞĐƚƌĂůDŽĚĞůĞĚĚũƵƐƚŵĞŶƚ&ĂĐƚŽƌ

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ

ŶŐůĞŽĨ/ŶĐŝĚĞŶƚĚũƵƐƚŵĞŶƚ&ĂĐƚŽƌĨŽƌ^ďĞƚǁĞĞŶϴϮqƚŽϵϬq

^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůĚũƵƐƚŵĞŶƚ&ĂĐƚŽƌůƌĞĂĚLJdĂŬĞŶ/ŶƚŽĐĐŽƵŶƚ

(8)

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qVRWKHFRVLQHDGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUZLOOEHGLYLGHGLQWRWZRSDUWVIURPqWRqDQGqWRq 6HH)LJXUHVDQG

7RWHVWWKHPRGHO'1,DOJRULWKPVXQGHUDOOZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDGMXVWPHQWVZHUHPDGHWRDOO56,'1,PLQ YDOXHVJHQHUDWHGLQ-XO\DQGFRPSDUHGZLWKPLQDYHUDJH'1,YDOXHVIURPWKH&+3S\UKHOLRPHWHU7KH FRPSDULVRQLVVKRZQLQ)LJ7KHDYHUDJHLVDERXW:PKLJKHUDQGWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQLV:P7KHUHZDV VPRNHLQWUXVLRQIURPDIRUHVWILUHWKDWDIIHFWHGWKHODVWGD\LQ-XO\$VVKRZQWKLVGLGUHVXOWLQDVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQWKH'1,IURPWKHDGMXVWHG56,GDWDDQGWKHEURDGEDQGS\UKHOLRPHWHU7KLVUHVXOWVLQWKHEDQGRIGDWDSRLQWV WKDWUXQWR:PDERYHWKH&+3YDOXHVLQ)LJ

'(7(50,1$7,212)7+($9(5$*('

I

+,63(&75$/5(63216,9,7<81'(5

&/($56.,(6

7KHIRUPXODIRU'I+,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWZDVREWDLQHGLQDVLPLODUPDQQHUWRWKDWIRUWKH'1,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQW IDFWRU7KH60$576PRGHOZDVXVHGWRREWDLQWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRILQFLGHQWGLIIXVHLUUDGLDQFHRQ-XO\

7KHPHDVXUHG/,&25VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\ZDVFRQYROYHGZLWKWKH'I+,VSHFWUDOGDWDDVLQ(TQZLWKWKH '1,VSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQUHSODFHGZLWKWKH'I+,VSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHUHVXOW\LHOGHGWKHFOHDUVN\GLIIXVHVSHFWUDO DGMXVWPHQWIDFWRU%HFDXVHZDWHUYDSRUDQGDHURVROVFDQVLJQLILFDQWO\DIIHFWWKH'I+,WKHGLIIXVHVSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQW IDFWRULVDQDSSUR[LPDWLRQZKRVHDFFXUDF\FDQYDU\ZLWKDWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQV

$FRPSDULVRQRIWKH'I+,IURPWKH56,WRWKHUHIHUHQFH6FKHQN'I+,PHDVXUHPHQWLVVKRZQLQ)LJXQGHUFOHDU VNLHV7KH'I+,FDOLEUDWLRQLVGHWHUPLQHGDIWHUDGMXVWLQJIRUWHPSHUDWXUHDQGPXOWLSO\LQJE\WKHHTXDWLRQIRUWKH'I+, WKHFOHDUVN\VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQW7KHQWKHFDOLEUDWLRQLVGHWHUPLQHGE\PDWFKLQJWKH'I+,IURPWKH56,ZLWKWKH UHIHUHQFH'I+,DWD6=$RIq$SHUXVDORI)LJVKRZWKDWWKHDGMXVWHG56,'I+,YDOXHVIDLUO\ZHOOPDWFKWKH UHIHUHQFH'I+,YDOXHVXQGHUFOHDUVN\FRQGLWLRQV7KHFKDQJHQHFHVVDU\WRLQFUHDVHWKH56,'I+,YDOXHDVWKHVXQJHWV ORZHULQWKHVN\ODUJHUVRODU]HQLWKDQJOHGHFUHDVHV7KLVFKDQJHLQDGMXVWPHQWIDFWRULVDOVRVKRZQLQ)LJZKLFK SORWVWKHUDWLRRIWKHRULJLQDO'I+,IURPWKH56,WRWKH'I+,IURPWKH6FKHQN7KLVILJXUHVKRZVWKDWMXVWQRUPDOL]LQJ WKH56,'I+,YDOXHVDWqEULQJVWKHXQDGMXVWHGFOHDUVN\'I+,YDOXHVWRZLWKLQ“RIWKHUHIHUHQFHIRU'I+,YDOXHV IRUVRODU]HQLWKDQJOHVOHVVWKDQq:KHQWKHFOHDUVN\56,'I+,YDOXHVDUHDGMXVWHGWRUHIOHFWWKHFKDQJHLQWKH VSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHLUUDGLDQFHWKHUHVXOWLQJ'I+,KDYHDVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRI“ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHUHIHUHQFH GLIIXVHYDOXHV7KLVLVDQHTXLYDOHQWWRDXQFHUWDLQW\RIDSSUR[LPDWHO\“:P

),*85(&OHDUVN\'I+,YDOXHVIURPUHIHUHQFHS\UDQRPHWHU 56,XQDGMXVWHGDQG56,DGMXVWHGGDWD

),*85(&RPSDULVRQRI'I+,YDOXHVIURPUHIHUHQFH PHDVXUHPHQWVDQGPRGHOHGHVWLPDWHG

Ϭ ϭϬ ϮϬ ϯϬ ϰϬ ϱϬ ϲϬ ϳϬ ϴϬ ϵϬ

ϮϬΣ ϮϱΣ ϯϬΣ ϯϱΣ ϰϬΣ ϰϱΣ ϱϬΣ ϱϱΣ ϲϬΣ ϲϱΣ ϳϬΣ ϳϱΣ ϴϬΣ ϴϱΣ ϵϬΣ Ĩ,/;tͬŵϮͿ

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ ůĞĂƌ^ŬLJŝĨĨƵƐĞŽŵƉĂƌŝƐŽŶ

ƵŐĞŶĞ͕KZ:ƵůLJϭϬ͕ϮϬϭϰ

^ĐŚĞŶŬĨ,/ Z^WĨ,/KƌŝŐŝŶĂů Z^WĨ,/ĚũƵƐƚĞĚ

Ϭ͘ϵϬ Ϭ͘ϵϱ ϭ͘ϬϬ ϭ͘Ϭϱ ϭ͘ϭϬ ϭ͘ϭϱ ϭ͘ϮϬ ϭ͘Ϯϱ ϭ͘ϯϬ ϭ͘ϯϱ

ϮϬΣ ϮϱΣ ϯϬΣ ϯϱΣ ϰϬΣ ϰϱΣ ϱϬΣ ϱϱΣ ϲϬΣ ϲϱΣ ϳϬΣ ϳϱΣ ϴϬΣ ϴϱΣ ϵϬΣ ƚŝŽĨ,/Z^WͬĨ,/ŚĞŶŬ

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ

ŽŵƉĂƌŝƐŽŶŽĨŝĨĨƵƐĞĂƚĂĂŶĚDŽĚĞůƐƚŝŵĂƚĞƐEŽƌŵĂůŝnjĞĚƚŽϰϱq ƵŐĞŶĞ͕KZ:ƵůLJϭϬ͕ϮϬϭϰ

Ĩ,/Z^/ͬĨ,/^ĐŚĞŶŬ DŽĚĞůĞĚůĞĂƌ^ŬLJĨ,/^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůĚũƵƐƚŵĞŶƚ

<ŝŶŐŝƌDĂƐƐ&ƵŶĐƚŝŽŶ Z^/E/^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůĚũƵƐƚŵĞŶƚ

Ĩ,/Z^/ͬĨ,/ ^ĐŚĞŶŬ DŽĚĞůĞĚ ůĞĂƌ^ŬLJĨ,/^ƉĞĐƚƌĂůĚũƵƐƚŵĞŶƚ

(9)

02'(/,1*7+('

)

+,5(63216,9,7<81'(5&/28'<6.,(6

8QGHUWRWDOO\RYHUFDVWVNLHVWKH*+,DQGWKH'I+,YDOXHVDUHWKHVDPHDQGWKH/,&25S\UDQRPHWHU¶V*+,YDOXHV DUHVLPLODUWRWKDWRIUHIHUHQFH*+,YDOXHV8QGHUFOHDUVNLHVWKH'U+,FRPSRQHQWGRPLQDWHVDQGRQHFDQDVVXPHWKDW WKHLQFLGHQWJOREDOVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQVHHQDUHYHU\VLPLODUWRWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH'U+,FRPSRQHQWSOXVD VPDOOFRQWULEXWLRQIURPWKH'I+,LUUDGLDQFH,IRQHDVVXPHVWKDWFORXGVDFWDVDQHXWUDOGHQVLW\ILOWHUWKHQWKHVSHFWUDO GLVWULEXWLRQVHHQE\WKH56,VHQVRULVEDVLFDOO\WKH'U+,VSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQ,QWHUPHGLDWHVWDWHVZKHUHWKHVN\LVRQO\

SDUWLDOO\FRYHUHGE\FORXGVWKHQWKHGLIIXVHVSHFWUDOUDGLDWLRQPXVWEHVRPHFRPELQDWLRQRI'U+,DQGWKH'I+,VSHFWUDO FRQWULEXWLRQV

7KHUDWLRRIRQHPLQXWH'I+,GDWDIURPWKH56,DQGWKH6FKHQNS\UDQRPHWHUDUHVKRZQLQ)LJIRU-XO\

LQ(XJHQH2UHJRQ3HULRGVRIFOHDUVN\SRSXODWHWKHERWWRPEDQGDQGWRWDOO\RYHUFDVWVNLHVSRSXODWHWKHWRSEDQG 7KHVSHFWUDOHIIHFWPRGHOHGXVLQJWKHFOHDUVN\VSHFWUDOYDOXHVIURPWKH60$576PRGHODQGFRQYROXWHGZLWKWKH PHDVXUHG/,&25VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\LVVKRZQDVWKHOLQHWKDWJRHVWKURXJKWKHFOHDUVN\YDOXHV7ZRWDVNVPXVW EHDFFRPSOLVKHGWRPRGHOWKH'I+,FRPSRQHQWDGMXVWPHQWVXQGHUDOOVN\FRQGLWLRQV)LUVWWKHFOHDUVN\SHULRGVPXVW EHVHSDUDWHGIURPWKHFORXG\SHULRGV7KLVZDVGRQHLQWKHIROORZLQJPDQQHU

x ,I 6=$ ƒ DQG '1, 56, $GMXVWHG ! :P DQG 'I+, :P WKHQ FOHDU VN\ FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH DVVXPHG

x ,Iƒ6=$ƒDQG'1,56,$GMXVWHG!:PDQG'I+,:PWKHQFOHDUVN\FRQGLWLRQVZHUH DVVXPHG

x ,Iƒ6=$ƒDQG'I+,56,$GMXVWHG:PWKHQFOHDUVN\FRQGLWLRQVZHUHDVVXPHG x (OVHFORXG\FRQGLWLRQVZHUHDVVXPHG

$IWHUUHPRYLQJWKHFOHDUVN\SHULRGVIURPWKHGDWDVHWDFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHUDWLRRIWKH56,'I+,YDOXHVDQG WKH6FKHQN'I+,YDOXHVZDVUXQWRGHWHUPLQHWKHDGMXVWPHQWIXQFWLRQIRUWKH56,'I+,DGMXVWPHQW

56,'I+,UHIHUHQFH'I+, &OHDU6N\'I+,DGMXVWPHQW)'I+,>)'I+,@'1,56,$GMXVWPHQW

7KLVLVDUHVXOWRIFRPELQJWKH'1,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWGXULQJFORXG\SHULRGVZLWKWKH'I+,DGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUIRU FOHDUSHULRGV7KHSRO\QRPLDOWRWKHVL[WKGHJUHHZLWK]HURLQWHUFHSW)'I+,VHH7DEOHLVXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKH SURSRUWLRQRIFOHDUDQGFORXG\VNLHV

)RUFRQVLVWHQF\WKH'I+,YDOXHVZHUHDGMXVWHGIRUWKHWHPSHUDWXUHGHSHQGHQFHEHIRUHWKHYDOXHVZHUHXVHGIRU WKHUDWLRDQGWKHFRUUHODWLRQ,QRUGHUWRSUHYHQWVSXULRXVDGMXVWPHQWYDOXHVIRUGDWDDWWKHXSSHUHQGLWZDVHVWLPDWHG WKDWZLWKWKHSHUFHQWDJHIXQFWLRQ)'I+,ZDVVHWHTXDOWRZKHQ'I+,ZDVJUHDWHUWKDQ:P

7KHUHVXOWLQJSHUFHQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHDGMXVWHG56,'I+,YDOXHVDQGWKHUHIHUHQFH'I+,YDOXHVLVVKRZQLQ )LJ7KHDYHUDJHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKH56,DGMXVWHG'I+,DQGWKHUHIHUHQFH'I+,LV:PDQGWKHVWDQGDUG HUURULV“:P

)'I+, D'I+,E'I+,F'I+,G'I+,H'I+,I'I+,

5(68/76$1'',6&866,21

8VLQJ WKH QHZ PHWKRGRORJ\ D 56, ZDV FDOLEUDWHG DQG DGMXVWPHQW DOJRULWKPV ZHUH GHYHORSHG &RPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQWKHUHIHUHQFHPHDVXUHPHQWVDQGWKHDGMXVWHG56,FRPSRQHQWVDUHVKRZQLQ)LJVDQG7KHVHUHVXOWV FRPSDUHZHOOZLWK PHDVXUHG GDWD DQG FXUUHQW DOJRULWKPV GHYHORSHG IRU 56,V 7KH DLU PDVV DGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUVRI SUHYLRXVPRGHOVKDYHEHHQUHSODFHGE\VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUV

7KHIROORZLQJVWHSVDUHDVXPPDU\RIXVHGWRREWDLQWKHDGMXVWPHQWVIRUWKH56, 2EWDLQVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\RIWKHS\UDQRPHWHUXVHGLQWKH56,

8VLQJDVSHFWUDOLUUDGLDQFHPRGHOFDOFXODWHWKH'1,VSHFWUDOLUUDGLDQFHGLVWULEXWLRQDWGLIIHUHQWWLPHVRIWKH GD\XQGHUFOHDUVN\FRQGLWLRQV

&DOLEUDWHWKH'1,FRPSRQHQWRIWKH56,DJDLQVWDUHIHUHQFH'1,PHDVXUHPHQWV 7$%/('LIIXVHSDUWLWLRQIXQFWLRQ)'I+,SDUDPHWHUV

D E F ' H I

&RHIILFLHQWV ( ( ( ( ( (

6WDQGDUGHUURU

(10)

1RUPDOL]HWKHPHDVXUHG'1,UHVSRQVLYLW\DWYDULRXVVRODU]HQLWKDQJOHVWRWKHDYHUDJHUHVSRQVLYLW\PHDVXUHG DWƒ

(VWLPDWHWKHVSHFWUDOHIIHFWDWYDULRXV6=$VRQWKHDYHUDJH'1,UHVSRQVLYLW\E\PXOWLSO\LQJWKHS\UDQRPHWHU VSHFWUDO UHVSRQVLYLW\ E\ WKH PRGHOHG LQFLGHQW VSHFWUDO '1, DQG GLYLGH E\ WKH DYHUDJH '1, LUUDGLDQFH GHWHUPLQHGIURPWKHVSHFWUDOPRGHO1RUPDOL]HWRƒ

&RPSDUH WKH PHDVXUHG VSHFWUDO UHVSRQVLYLW\ DJDLQVW WKH PRGHOHG VSHFWUDO UHVSRQVLYLW\ 'HWHUPLQH WKH GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWRPHDVXUHGDQGPRGHOHGYDOXHVDQGDVVXPHWKLVGLIIHUHQFHLVFDXVHGE\WKHGHYLDWLRQ IURPWKHWUXHFRVLQHUHVSRQVH

8VLQJDVSHFWUDOLUUDGLDQFHPRGHOFDOFXODWHWKH'I+,VSHFWUDOLUUDGLDQFHGLVWULEXWLRQDWGLIIHUHQWWLPHVRIWKH GD\XQGHUFOHDUVN\FRQGLWLRQV

&DOLEUDWHWKH'I+,FRPSRQHQWRIWKH56,DJDLQVWDUHIHUHQFH'I+,PHDVXUHPHQWXQGHUFOHDUVN\FRQGLWLRQV 1RUPDOL]HWKHPHDVXUHG'I+,UHVSRQVLYLW\DWYDULRXVVRODU]HQLWKDQJOHVWRWKHDYHUDJHUHVSRQVLYLW\PHDVXUHG

DWƒ

'HWHUPLQHWKHDYHUDJH'I+,UHVSRQVLYLW\GXULQJFORXG\SHULRGVDVDIXQFWLRQRI'U+,UHVSRQVLYLW\DQG'I+, UHVSRQVLYLW\

8VLQJWKHžDYHUDJHUHVSRQVLYLW\$SSO\DGMXVWPHQWVGHWHUPLQHGIURPWKHPRGHODVDIXQFWLRQRI6=$WR WKH56,PHDVXUHPHQWV

,WLVSRVLWHGWKDWRQHFDQREWDLQ56,DGMXVWPHQWVIRUDQHZORFDWLRQE\XVLQJWKHUDWLRRIUHVSRQVLYLW\FDOFXODWHG ZLWKDVSHFWUDOLUUDGLDQFHPRGHODORQJZLWKWKHLQVWUXPHQWVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\IRUWKHORFDWLRQRILQWHUHVW GLYLGHGE\VLPLODUO\REWDLQHGYDOXHVIRUWKHORFDWLRQZKHUHWKHLQVWUXPHQWZDVFDOLEUDWHG

7KHDGYDQWDJHRIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\LVWKDWVSHFWUDOPRGHOVVXFKDV60$576>@FDQEHXVHGWRPRGLI\WKH VSHFWUDO DIIHFWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH DWPRVSKHULF FRQGLWLRQV ZKHUH WKH LQVWUXPHQW ZDV FDOLEUDWHG DQG DGMXVWHG WR VSHFLILFORFDODWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQV7KHQHZDGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUVDUHREWDLQHGE\PRGLI\LQJWKHDGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUV E\WKHUDWLRRIWKHDGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUVFDOFXODWHGZLWKWKHDWPRVSKHULFLQSXWVWRWKH60$576PRGHOIRUQHZORFDWLRQ E\WKHVLPLODUDGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUFDOFXODWHGXVLQJDWPRVSKHULFLQSXWVIRUWKHORFDWLRQRIWKHRULJLQDOFDOLEUDWLRQV7KLV KDVWREHGRQHIRUERWKWKH'1,DQG'I+,DGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUV7KLVDOWHUDWLRQFDQEHQRWDEO\LPSRUWDQWLIDWPRVSKHULF DHURVRO FRPSRVLWLRQ DW WKH QHZ ORFDWLRQ LV VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH ORFDWLRQV ZKHUH WKH LQVWUXPHQW ZDV FDOLEUDWHG

7KHUHVXOWVSUHVHQWHGKHUHDVVXPHGWKDWWKHVSHFWUDOGHSHQGHQFHRIWKH/,&25SKRWRGLRGHEDVHGS\UDQRPHWHU ZDV WKH VDPH DV WKH VSHFWUDO GHSHQGHQFH PHDVXUHG IRU D GLIIHUHQW LQVWUXPHQW DW 15(/ &RPSDULQJ WKH VSHFWUDO SUHGLFWLRQVXVLQJDJHQHULFVSHFWUDOGHSHQGHQFHDQGWKHPHDVXUHGVSHFWUDOGHSHQGHQFHVKRZVWKDWWKHUHVXOWVDUHIDLUO\

VHQVLWLYHWRWKHVSHFWUDOGHSHQGHQFHXVHGIRUWKHS\UDQRPHWHU,WLVYHU\GLIILFXOWWRVHSDUDWHWKHGHYLDWLRQIURPWUXH FRVLQHUHVSRQVHRIWKHS\UDQRPHWHUIURPWKHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVHRIWKHS\UDQRPHWHUEHFDXVHWKH\ERWKYDU\ZLWKWKH VRODU]HQLWKDQJOH7RVHSDUDWHWKHFRVLQHIURPWKHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVHRQHZRXOGKDYHWRFKDQJHWKHDQJOHRILQFLGHQFH ZKLOHPDLQWDLQLQJWKHVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHLUUDGLDQFH7KLVFRXOGEHGRQHE\WLOWLQJWKH56,ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKH LQFLGHQW'1,DQGHYDOXDWLQJKRZWKHUHVXOWLQJWLOWHGGLIIXVHFRPSRQHQWFKDQJHV

),*85(6HJUHJDWLQJWKHUDWLRRIUHIHUHQFHDQG WHPSHUDWXUHDGMXVWHG56,PHDVXUHG'I+,LQWRGLIIHUHQWVN\

FRQGLWLRQV

),*85(3HUFHQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQDGMXVWHG56,DQG UHIHUHQFH'I+,IRU-XO\LQ(XJHQH2UHJRQ

Ϭ͘ϱ Ϭ͘ϲ Ϭ͘ϳ Ϭ͘ϴ Ϭ͘ϵ ϭ͘Ϭ ϭ͘ϭ

ϮϬΣ ϮϱΣ ϯϬΣ ϯϱΣ ϰϬΣ ϰϱΣ ϱϬΣ ϱϱΣ ϲϬΣ ϲϱΣ ϳϬΣ ϳϱΣ ϴϬΣ ϴϱΣ ϵϬΣ Z^/Ĩ,/ͬ^ĐŚĞŶŬĨ,/

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ

^ĞŐƌĞŐĂƚŝŶŐůĞĂƌĂŶĚůŽƵĚLJWĞƌŝŽĚƐ ƵŐĞŶĞ͕KZ:ƵůLJϮϬϭϰ

Z^/E/хϳϱϬtͬŵΔϮ ϮϬϬtͬŵΔϮфZ^/E/фϳϱϬtͬŵΔϮ Z^/E/фϮϬϬtͬŵΔϮ Ĩ,/ůĞĂƌ^ŬLJŽƌƌĞĐƚŝŽŶ&ĂĐƚŽƌ

ϮϬϬtͬŵϮфZ^/E/фϳϱϬtͬŵϮ Z^/E/хϳϱϬtͬŵϮ

Z^/E/фϮϬϬtͬŵϮ Ĩ,/ůĞĂƌ^ŬLJĚũƵƐƚŵĞŶƚ &ĂĐƚŽƌ

ͲϮϬй Ͳϭϱй ͲϭϬй Ͳϱй Ϭй ϱй ϭϬй ϭϱй ϮϬй Ϯϱй ϯϬй ϯϱй ϰϬй

ϮϬΣ ϮϱΣ ϯϬΣ ϯϱΣ ϰϬΣ ϰϱΣ ϱϬΣ ϱϱΣ ϲϬΣ ϲϱΣ ϳϬΣ ϳϱΣ ϴϬΣ ϴϱΣ ϵϬΣ

;Ĩ,/Z^/ĚũƵƐƚĞĚͲĨ,/^ĐŚĞŶŬͿ Ĩ,/^ĐŚĞŶŬ

^ŽůĂƌĞŶŝƚŚŶŐůĞ;ĞŐƌĞĞƐͿ

йŝĨĨĞƌĞŶĐĞďĞƚǁĞĞŶĚũƵƐƚĞĚZ^/Ĩ,/ĂŶĚ^ĐŚĞŶŬĨ,/

ƵŐĞŶĞ͕KZ:ƵůLJ͕ϮϬϭϰ

(11)

:KLOHWKHFOHDUVN\'1,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUFDQEHDSSOLHGXQGHUDOOZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVWKLVLVQRWWUXHIRU WKHFOHDUVN\'I+,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWIDFWRU$IRUPXODZDVIRXQGWKDWHQDEOHGWKH'I+,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWIDFWRU WREHGHWHUPLQHGIRUDOOZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVXVLQJDFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHFOHDUVN\'1,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUDQG WKHFOHDUVN\'I+,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWIDFWRU7KHUHIRUHWKH'I+,VSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWIDFWRUFDQDOVREHPRGLILHGWR ORFDODWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQV

7KLVZDVDQLQLWLDODWWHPSWWHVWWKHIHDVLELOLW\RIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\DQGLWLVH[SHFWHGWKDWUHILQHPHQWVFDQEHPDGH WRWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\$UHDVIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFKDUH

x (YDOXDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DJDLQVW56,PHDVXUHPHQWVPDGHRYHUDPXFKORQJHUWLPHVSDQ x 2EWDLQLQJDPRUHFRPSUHKHQVLYHVHWRIS\UDQRPHWHUVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLWLHVWRWHVWWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKH

PHWKRGRORJ\WRFKDQJHVLQWKHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\

x &KDUDFWHUL]LQJDQGPRGHOLQJRIWKHHIIHFWVRIZDWHUYDSRURQWKHFDOFXODWHGVSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWV

x 0RGHOLQJWKHVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\LQDUHDVZLWKFRPSOHWHO\GLIIHUHQWVSHFWUDOGLVWULEXWLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWR GHWHUPLQHWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKFKDUDFWHUL]LQJVSHFLILFORFDWLRQVDQGZKDWFDQEHGRQHWR PRGLI\WKHDOJRULWKPVWRWKHVHRWKHUORFDWLRQV

x ([DPLQDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\ZLWKGLIIHUHQWLQVWUXPHQWVDQGORFDWLRQVWRGHWHUPLQHFRPPRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGLGHQWLI\FKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDWDUHVLWHRUVHDVRQVSHFLILF

1RZWKDWWKLVQHZPHWKRGRORJ\KDVEHHQGHPRQVWUDWHGWRZRUNIRUSKRWRGLRGHVS\UDQRPHWHUVIXWXUHHIIRUWVZLOO H[DPLQHLIDVLPLODUVSHFWUDODGMXVWPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\ZRXOGEHDSSOLFDEOHWRSHUIRUPDQFHPRGHOVIRUSKRWRYROWDLF PRGXOHV

$&.12:/('*(0(176

:H ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN WKH %RQQHYLOOH 3RZHU $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ WKH (QHUJ\ 7UXVW RI 2UHJRQ DQG WKH 1DWLRQDO 5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\ /DERUDWRU\ XQGHU VXEFRQWUDFW;$7 IRU VXSSRUW RI WKH8QLYHUVLW\RI2UHJRQ 6RODU 5DGLDWLRQ0RQLWRULQJ/DERUDWRU\WKDWPDGHWKLVSDUWRIWKLVZRUNSRVVLEOH)XQGLQJIRURWKHUFRQWULEXWLRQVIURPWKH (8)3SURMHFW6)(5$IRU'/5¶VFRQWULEXWLRQLVDSSUHFLDWHG:HZRXOGDOVROLNHWRWKDQN15(/IRUWKHPHDVXUHG VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVLYLW\GDWDRID/,&25S\UDQRPHWHU

5()(5(1&(6

'.LQJDQG'0\HUV³6LOLFRQ3KRWRGLRGH3\UDQRPHWHUV2SHUDWLRQDO&KDUDFWHULVWLFV+LVWRULFDOH[SHULHQFHV DQG 1HZ &DOLEUDWLRQ 3URFHGXUHV´ WK ,((( 3KRWRYROWDLF 6SHFLDOLVWV &RQIHUHQFH 6HSW 2FW

$QDKHLP&DOLIRUQLD

'.LQJ - $ 'UDWRFKYLO DQG: ( %R\VRQ ³0HDVXULQJ 6RODU6SHFWUDO DQG$QJOH±RI±,QFLGHQFH(IIHFWVRI 3KRWRYROWDLF0RGXOHVDQG6RODU,UUDGLDQFH6HQVRUV´WK,(((3KRWRYROWDLF6SHFLDOLVWV&RQIHUHQFH6HSW 2FW$QDKHLP&DOLIRUQLD

)9LJQROD6RODU&HOO%DVHG3\UDQRPHWHUV(YDOXDWLRQRI'LIIXVH5HVSRQVLYLW\Proceedings of the 1999 Annual Conference American Solar Energy Society-XQH

)9LJQROD-0LFKDOVN\DQG76WRIIHO6RODUDQG,QIUDUHG5DGLDWLRQ0HDVXUHPHQWV&5&3UHVV

-$XJXVW\Q7*HHU76WRIIHO5.HVVOHU(.HUQ5/LWWOHDQG)9LJQROD,PSURYLQJWKHDFFXUDF\RI ORZ FRVW PHDVXUHPHQW RI GLUHFW QRUPDO LUUDGLDQFH 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH $PHULFDQ 6RODU (QHUJ\ 6RFLHW\ 5

&DPSEHOO+RZHDQG%:LONLQV&URZGHUHGV$PHULFDQ6RODU(QHUJ\6RFLHW\%RXOGHU&RORUDGR86$

$XJXVW\Q-7*HHU76WRIIHO5.HVVOHU(.HUQ5/LWWOH)9LJQRODDQG%%R\VRQ8SGDWHRI DOJRULWKP WR FRUUHFW GLUHFW QRUPDO ,UUDGLDQFH PHDVXUHPHQWV PDGH ZLWK D URWDWLQJ VKDGRZ EDQG S\UDQRPHWHU 3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH$PHULFDQ6RODU(QHUJ\6RFLHW\5&DPSEHOO+RZHDQG%:LONLQV&URZGHUHGV$PHULFDQ 6RODU(QHUJ\6RFLHW\%RXOGHU&RORUDGR86$

9LJQROD)5HPRYLQJV\VWHPDWLFHUURUVIURPURWDWLQJVKDGRZEDQGS\UDQRPHWHUGDWD,Q3URFHHGLQJVRI WKH$PHULFDQ6RODU(QHUJ\6RFLHW\5&DPSEHOO+RZHHG$PHULFDQ6RODU(QHUJ\6RFLHW\%RXOGHU&2 *HXGHU113XOYHUPXHOOHU%9RUEUXJJ2&RUUHFWLRQVIRUURWDWLQJVKDGRZEDQGS\UDQRPHWHUVIRU

VRODUUHVRXUFHDVVHVVPHQW3URFHHGLQJVRI63,(,QWHUQDWLRQDO6RFLHW\IRU2SWLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ6RFLHW\RI 3KRWR2SWLFDO,QVWUXPHQWDWLRQ(QJLQHHUV

(12)

*HXGHU1+DQXVVHN0+DOOHU-$IIROHU5:LOEHUW6&RPSDULVRQRI&RUUHFWLRQVDQG&DOLEUDWLRQ 3URFHGXUHVIRU5RWDWLQJ6KDGRZEDQG,UUDGLDQFH6HQVRUV6RODU3$&(6&RQIHUHQFH*UDQDGD6SDLQ

*HXGHU1$IIROWHU5*RHEHO2'DKOHK%$O.KDZDMD0:LOEHUW63DSH%DQG3XOYHUPXHOOHU%

9DOLGDWLRQRI'LUHFW%HDP,UUDGLDQFH0HDVXUHPHQWVIURP5RWDWLQJ6KDGRZEDQG,UUDGLRPHWHUV56,LQD 5HJLRQZLWK'LIIHUHQW$WPRVSKHULF&RQGLWLRQV-RXUQDORI6RODU(QHUJ\(QJLQHHULQJGRL *HXGHU 1 $IIROHU 5 .UDDV % :LOEHUW 6 /RQJWHUP EHKDYLRU DFFXUDF\ DQG GULIW RI /,

S\UDQRPHWHUV DV UDGLDWLRQ VHQVRUV LQ 5RWDWLQJ 6KDGRZEDQG ,UUDGLRPHWHUV 56,(QHUJ\ 3URFHGLD

-HVVHQ:6:LOEHUWHWDO&DOLEUDWLRQPHWKRGVIRUURWDWLQJVKDGRZEDQGLUUDGLRPHWHUVDQGRSWLPL]LQJ WKHFDOLEUDWLRQGXUDWLRQ$WPRV0HDV7HFK

:LOEHUW66.OHLQGLHNHWDO8QFHUWDLQW\RIURWDWLQJVKDGRZEDQGLUUDGLRPHWHUVDQG6LS\UDQRPHWHUV LQFOXGLQJWKHVSHFWUDOLUUDGLDQFHHUURU$,3&RQIHUHQFH3URFHHGLQJV

0\HUV'54XDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVRIVSHFWUDOLPSDFWVRQVLOLFRQSKRWRGLRGHUDGLRPHWHUV3DSHUUHDGDW6RODU

&RQI5DOHLJK1&±0D\

7KH 3D\HUQH LQVWUXPHQW SHUIRUPDQFH HYDOXDWLRQ LV D FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH SURMHFW 'LUHFW 1RUPDO ,UUDGLDQFH 1RZFDVWLQJPHWKRGVIRURSWLPL]HGRSHUDWLRQRIFRQFHQWUDWLQJVRODUWHFKQRORJLHV'1,&DVW'1,&DVWUHFHLYHG IXQGLQJ IURP WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQV 6HYHQWK 3URJUDPPH IRU UHVHDUFK WHFKQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG GHPRQVWUDWLRQXQGHUJUDQWDJUHHPHQW1R

) 9LJQROD = 'HURFKHU - 3HWHUVRQ / 9XLOOHXPLHU & )pOL[ - *U|EQHU 1 .RXUHPHWL (IIHFWV RI FKDQJLQJ VSHFWUDO UDGLDWLRQ GLVWULEXWLRQ RQ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI SKRWRGLRGH S\UDQRPHWHUV6RODU (QHUJ\

*XH\PDUG&KULVWLDQ$60$576FRGHYHUVLRQIRU:LQGRZV²8VHU¶V0DQXDO

Figure

Updating...

Sujets connexes :