Modèles de séries chronologiques Bilinéaires : Estimations, Algorithmes et Applications

Texte intégral

(1)Modèles de séries chronologiques Bilinéaires : Estimations, Algorithmes et Applications Khadija Bouzaâchane. To cite this version: Khadija Bouzaâchane. Modèles de séries chronologiques Bilinéaires : Estimations, Algorithmes et Applications. Modélisation et simulation. Ecole Mohammadia d’Ingénieurs, 2006. Français. �tel00355518�. HAL Id: tel-00355518 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00355518 Submitted on 22 Jan 2009. HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.. L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés..

(2)

(3).

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8) . .

(9) .

(10)

(11)

(12) . .

(13)

(14) !" #$%

(15)

(16)

(17) !. .

(18) !. " #$. %

(19). # ! "& # ' . . ( # )#( . $ # . "&" #*. $ . " #$. $ . (#+! . ", . (-#-.. ", .

(20) . /

(21) .

(22) 0.

(23) 1. *

(24) 2

(25) 3 4" $

(26)

(27) 53"$ 6 4" # 4.

(28) 0 7

(29) . 0 " !. .

(30)

(31) 0. 3

(32) !4 ,

(33) . % 8 9. 0. .

(34) 4 .

(35) .

(36)

(37) 4 0 ..

(38) /4 4

(39)

(40) : 4 4 0 / . .

(41) 0. * . ; % ( ( 4

(42)

(43) .7 , 0.

(44) . '' * % 4" 4

(45)

(46) ! 0. / ,7 ' % 4" 9 % 4"&" 4

(47) 47 0. 3 .. . .

(48) <.

(49) 4

(50)

(51)

(52) ,0. / 4 4 / % ( 4+! ' % (- -. 4

(53) ! 0. / , . $! = >

(54) $ " * 4?($ @

(55) @ 4 0. *4 4 ' " ; 2 0

(56)

(57) 7.

(58) 4 ! .

(59) 0

(60) , " . . 0

(61) 4 0. ": ! " A / 7 / A ; ' B : ' 0.

(62)

(63) " # . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 1. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. C. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. D. $ % 0 0 01. 0<. 0C. 0. &'. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A

(64)

(65)

(66)

(67) . C. $ 0 0 0 0 0. .

(68) . . $ . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. E. 010.

(69) % $ . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. D. 010.

(70) % $ . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 1. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 1. 9

(71) 0<0.

(72) 9

(73) . 0<0.

(74) 9

(75) . ( F. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 11. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 1<. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 1. 0C0. %

(76) 4

(77) . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 0C0. %

(78) 4

(79) . 0 0 0 0. 3

(80) 4

(81) . 1 1G. 0 0 0. 1D. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 1D. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <. 00.

(82)

(83) . 00.

(84) . 001.

(85) 4 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. C. <.

(86) . 00< 0G. 0E. 0D.

(87) , . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <.

(88) 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <<. 0G0.

(89) 4

(90) . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <<. 0G0.

(91) 4 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <E. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. C1. 0E0. * :

(92) . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. C1. 0E0. 7 > 7 > . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. C<. 0E01. %

(93) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. CC. 0E0<. * * .H 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. CC. * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. C. (

(94) . . . & ( ) ) * +,-.-.&.$/ 0 1 '2 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 0. . 4 . 01. . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. CE. 00.

(95) . 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. CE. 00. * 4. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. . 001. . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. :

(96) .

(97) . 4 . 0<. 4 . CG. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 010. $ . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 010.

(98) . 4 . E D. 0 0 0. GG. * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. E. 3 ( ) ) * . +,$.-.$.$/ 0

(99) * , 4 &--5/ 63 10. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. E1.

(100) G. 10. . 4

(101) . 4 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. E<. 100.

(102) . 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. E<. 100. * 4. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. E. 101. . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. EE. 10<.

(103) 4 ; 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. D. 10<0.

(104)

(105) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. D. 10<0. $

(106) ,

(107) ,. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. D1. * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. DC. 10C. 5 ( ) ) * +,-.-../ * . 72 <0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <0. . 4

(108) . 4 . <01. DE. <00.

(109) . 4 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. DE. <00. * 4. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. . <001. . <. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 4

(110) 3 .93. <0<. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. DG. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <010. I .. / . <010. 4 . D. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. . * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. G. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. D. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. C. 4 . 8 0

(111)

(112) .

(113) E.

(114) 0. A

(115)

(116)

(117) 0 0 0 0 0. G. 0. A .

(118) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. G. 01. $

(119) @ <@. 0<. . . .

(120) . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. GD. $

(121) . .

(122) . @ <@. 0C. . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. GD. $

(123) . .

(124) . @ <@

(125)

(126) . 4 *. 10. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. D1.

(127)

(128) 4#;

(129)

(130) . +0. 101. E. $

(131) .

(132)

(133) 4#; . 10. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. D<.

(134)

(135) 4#;

(136)

(137) . +0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. DC. <0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 1. <0. . ! . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <. <01. . ! . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. C. <0<. . ! " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. . <0C. . ! " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. . D.

(138) . <0. . ! " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. G.

(139)

(140) 0. 9 " -#

(141) JC 0. G. 0. 9 " -#

(142) J. G. 01. 9 " -#

(143) JC. G. 0<. 9 " -#

(144) . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. E. 0C. 3

(145) 8. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. G. 0. 3

(146) 8. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. G. 0G. $

(147) . . !

(148) 3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0E. $

(149) . . !

(150) 3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0D. GC. GC. $

(151) 4 9 , % 4 . .

(152) 3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. GC. 0 $

(153) 4 9 , % 4 . .

(154) 3K. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. G. 0 $

(155)

(156) 3K 3K. G. 0 3

(157) <. GE. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 01 * * , . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. E. 10. 9 " -#

(158) JC 0. ED. 10. 9 " -#

(159) JC. ED. 101. 9 " -#

(160) JC 0. D. .

(161) . 10<. 9 " -#

(162) JC. D. 10C. 3

(163) 34

(164) ,

(165) 4#; 0 0 0 0 0 0. D. 10. L * +. DC. <0. . 9 . ". . -# . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0.

(166) . . 4. 3F( JC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 <0.

(167) F 9 . 9

(168) JC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. <01. . 9 . ". . -# . 4. 3F( J <0<. . 9 . ". . . . .

(169) . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 9 . . ". . -# . . .

(170) . G. . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. G. 9

(171)

(172) F 9 JC. <0D. . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. -# . 4. 3F( JC <0E.

(173) . 9

(174)

(175) F 9 J. <0G. . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. 4. 3F( J <0. . . 9

(176)

(177) F 9 J. <0C. C. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0. G. 9 " -#

(178) JC. E.

(179) 1. % , 4

(180)

(181)

(182)

(183)

(184) 0 & !

(185) 4

(186) : . 4 0 & , ,

(187) . & , . 4

(188) # . 4 .

(189) . 4 .

(190) . 4 . 0. * 4 . : 4 0. & . .

(191)

(192) . .

(193) , . . . 4 . . . . . . 4. : F .

(194) 4

(195) 0. & .

(196)

(197) Æ

(198)

(199) A

(200) .

(201) ; 0

(202)

(203) % , .

(204) 0. & . 4

(205)

(206)

(207)

(208) . . M :

(209) 0.

(210) <. H ' ) H H 0 + . H . . 0 + H ' H . &H . . :# . # :# . . # . . 0. - : H . 0. - H . , ' . F : . 0 - ) F : . 0 H Æ # A. ; 4 0 - .. H # 0 + . H : H 0.

(211)

(212) & , 2

(213) 0. . "

(214)

(215) 0. 5 6 5 6. 5 6. . * . L . . 0. 0. $ . 0. % F '0. J ,5 . .

(216) 6. & 4 . 4 . . . . 0. 0. L". L 0. L. L

(217) 0. . -

(218) . 0 C. 0.

(219) . . 6. 5. . 0. 5 6. + 9#. 5 DE6. 3 %

(220)

(221)

(222)

(223)

(224) 0 , )0 "

(225)

(226)

(227) F % :

(228) . . . % L . 56 J 5

(229) 6 . . N

(230) 6.

(231) : . O

(232) . . . . 0 #

(233) : % L0. 3

(234)

(235) . . . 0. + . 5A DDC6. . 3 A

(236) : . . 4

(237) . . . . 56 J. + : . ,. . . ,. .

(238)

(239) . . .

(240) . . 0. . 5A DDC6. *

(241) : .

(242) , . . 0.

(243) .

(244) , .

(245) . 56 J. .

(246) 6. 5. . 5. . . . 6. 5. . . 6 5

(247) 6 . . . ; 3 $ 4 .

(248) . . 6. 5. . . . . . . J .

(249) . . G. . 0. < 3 F ' 5 6 , .

(250)

(251) . . J. . J 5

(252) 6. .

(253) .

(254) .

(255) . . . . .

(256) . . . . . . . . . . . .

(257) . N! P . !. 4# # .

(258) . . 4 0. + ) 4 * 4. 4 . # # # . 0 3. .

(259) !. . ". ". # #7 #7 .

(260) 7.

(261) . ,

(262) . $ $ 0.

(263)

(264)

(265) 0. ( ;. $J. . . " . $. 9

(266) %. J. . . " . $ $ 6. 5. 5

(267) 5DD66. 3 .

(268) . E. ( ;. 5@ . @6. & J. ; .

(269) ". . . $ $6. 5. . 5@ " @6. ' (. J. . . " . $. ( == ;. ,>

(270) = (>/ )' (. J.

(271) " . ( ;. ' * $. . #. J. . $. 5@ %. " @6. . $ " # . 0. ?@ ! &

(272) & J.

(273) & )' (.

(274)

(275)

(276) . . . . . ,. . . . . #

(277) . .

(278) . !

(279) 4 .

(280) . .

(281) . . . . . . . 4 . . ... . 4

(282) , #

(283) 0 " 2 4, #

(284)

(285) . 0.

(286) 5936 % #

(287)

(288) . 5-$6

(289) . , 5"K%$6 $*;000 5 A

(290) . 5DD<660

(291)

(292) ,

(293) 0 4 .

(294)

(295)

(296)

(297) 4 . * .

(298) 5 B 5DCE66.

(299)

(300)

(301)

(302) 7. 5 5DG66000 " 4 .7 A. 5DGE6

(303)

(304)

(305)

(306)

(307)

(308) 0. . $ 5DE6 A

(309) . 4

(310)

(311)

(312)

(313)

(314)

(315)

(316)

(317) ,

(318) 0 " 5DE6 A

(319) .

(320)

(321) 4, 4

(322) 4, 4

(323) . 4 0 "

(324) 4.

(325) 5DE16 5DE<60. D.

(326)

(327)

(328) . .

(329)

(330) .

(331)

(332) , 4,

(333) 4

(334) $ $ H' 5DE160. ! 9'. * 4

(335) .

(336)

(337)

(338) 4

(339) 4, 0 . &

(340) % - 5DE6 . . .

(341)

(342) A

(343) . 5DE<6

(344)

(345) 0 34

(346) 5DEC6

(347) 4

(348)

(349)

(350) ' 0. " 2. %

(351) ' . ,0

(352) 4, 4

(353)

(354)

(355) 4 4, 4

(356)

(357) 0 " 5DE6 A

(358) .

(359)

(360) 4

(361) Æ . , . . ,

(362) Æ

(363)

(364) : . 5DGD60 *4 .7 4 ' 4

(365)

(366)

(367) 0. " 2 A

(368) . % 5DEG 6 . 4

(369)

(370) . , 5DD6 3 4

(371)

(372) .

(373)

(374) ,0. + . 4

(375)

(376)

(377)

(378)

(379)

(380) 4 4

(381)

(382)

(383) 0 34 , .

(384)

(385)

(386) $ A. 5DE<6 . ,0 " 5DEG 6 A

(387) . %. 4 . , . .

(388) .

(389) 0. " 5DD6. F 9 .

(390)

(391)

(392) . .

(393)

(394) . 4

(395) 4 0 3

(396)

(397)

(398)

(399) .

(400) 7 0. * . ,

(401)

(402)

(403) 0

(404) . %. A

(405) . % 5DD6 B ! 5DDC6 9. . ; 5DD DDDDE6 ; 9. 5DDE 60. .

(406) , 4

(407)

(408) 4 .

(409) 0. "& ' ( & . . 4 . . . . . 4 . . . . .

(410) ,

(411)

(412)

(413) 0 & 4

(414)

(415) , # . 4. : F 5; 5DD<660. * ! .

(416)

(417)

(418) . 4 4

(419) , , 4, .#

(420) 4. : F0 34 4 , $ 0 + % 5DE6 F 5DE16 5DEG60 4 , 4

(421) M : F

(422) * '

(423)

(424) 5DE16 5DED6 ; 5DD60 ". . . . . . M . 4 .

(425) !

(426) 2

(427)

(428) , .# 0.

(429)

(430)

(431) . . 3 .

(432)

(433) .

(434) . *

(435)

(436) 0 3.

(437) . . . . . . 7 . Æ . . .

(438) : 4 4 4 . #

(439) 0 " , .

(440) 0. + . 8-- % O 0 4

(441)

(442) 7 .

(443) #

(444)

(445) . 4

(446) :

(447) 4

(448) : 0

(449)

(450) .

(451) 0 4 .

(452) : ,

(453) 0 3 . .

(454) 4. 4 .

(455) 0. )

(456) * 4 3. .

(457) . .

(458) 0

(459) .

(460)

(461)

(462)

(463) : $

(464)

(465)

(466) 4

(467)

(468) 0 34 !

(469)

(470) :

(471)

(472) . ,

(473) ,0 " . .

(474) . .

(475) : . . .

(476) . .

(477)

(478) . . .

(479)

(480) . 4,

(481) 4

(482) 0 34 ! # . 4

(483) 0.

(484)

(485)

(486) . 1. * . : F

(487) % . . . .

(488) . 4

(489) . 4 . . . . . . 4. 4 . . 0. :. . F. 4, . . . .# 4

(490)

(491) 4

(492) 4

(493) 0 3

(494) 4 , .# , 0. *

(495)

(496) .

(497)

(498) 4

(499)

(500) 0.

(501) .

(502) 4

(503)

(504)

(505)

(506)

(507)

(508) 0 & 4

(509) :

(510) . 0 % : M 0. . 8. . 4 .

(511) . 4 ,0. & .

(512) :

(513)

(514) 4

(515) 4 4

(516) . 4, .# 0. "

(517) 4. . 4 0 % ! : .

(518)

(519)

(520) ,

(521) : 0 3 ,

(522)

(523)

(524) 4 !

(525)

(526) . 0 - 4

(527)

(528)

(529) $ 0 "

(530)

(531) 4

(532) ! ,

(533) :

(534) . 0. 4!

(535) . . 0. " ! :

(536)

(537) .

(538)

(539)

(540) . <. * .H 5DD<60. 3. .

(541)

(542) 4 4.

(543) . 4 0. 3 7 , .

(544) 4# #

(545) :

(546)

(547)

(548) 4

(549) 0. 34. 4 .

(550) : , 7

(551) . 0 ?. .

(552) . 4 . 4#; .

(553)

(554)

(555)

(556) . . ,.

(557) .

(558) . . . : .

(559)

(560)

(561) 0. 3. =. . 4 .

(562) . 4 . 0. % .

(563) .

(564) 4

(565) 2

(566) ! , 0. &

(567)

(568)

(569) . , .#

(570)

(571) % H

(572) , , 0 4. 4 ,#

(573) .

(574) 2

(575)

(576) . M :

(577) ! 0 .. / 0. * .

(578) 4

(579)

(580) . , .

(581) #

(582) $*; A$*;

(583) . 0 &

(584) 4 .

(585)

(586) 4 0 & . 4 . 0.

(587)

(588) *+* . . . . . . . .

(589) 7 . . .

(590) . . 4. .

(591)

(592)

(593) # 0. *

(594)

(595) .

(596)

(597)

(598) 0. & 47 >

(599) :

(600)

(601) # $

(602) . 5$ 6 .

(603)

(604)

(605)

(606) 59360 3

(607)

(608) 0 3 4 . 4

(609) ! 0 * .

(610) , . : F0

(611) #. . < C

(612)

(613) 4. : 4

(614) 0 F

(615) 4

(616) . 4

(617)

(618)

(619)

(620) . 3.

(621) #.

(622)

(623) :

(624) . .,

(625) 0. & . . :

(626) . 0. C.

(627)

(628)

(629)

(630) . . *+, -

(631)

(632)

(633) . /

(634) ).

(635) 4 , .

(636) .

(637) #! 0. % .

(638) 0

(639)

(640) : ,

(641) 0. 1 $

(642)

(643)

(644)

(645)

(646)

(647)

(648)

(649)

(650)

(651)

(652)

(653) . 1 &

(654)

(655)

(656)

(657) .

(658)

(659)

(660)

(661)

(662)

(663)

(664)

(665)

(666) " + 5. 6. . 1 3 .

(667)

(668)

(669)

(670) !

(671)

(672)

(673)

(674) !

(675) !

(676) "

(677)

(678)

(679)

(680)

(681) ! . 1 5

(682) .

(683) 6. 5.

(684) 6.

(685)

(686) !

(687) #. 5. !

(688) , !

(689) !

(690) -

(691) !

(692)

(693) . !

(694)

(695) / .

(696) N N. P. P J. 5. 6 J. 5. 6. (8 0 ? 4 Q # . $

(697) 6.

(698) 5. 4

(699)

(700) . N$

(701) P J 6

(702)

(703) 5/ 5.6 J . J 6 7. 5. N$

(704) P J 0. 5. J. / 5660.

(705)

(706)

(707)

(708) . G. 1 '

(709)

(710)

(711)

(712)

(713)

(714)

(715) . $

(716)

(717) "

(718) #

(719)

(720)

(721) "

(722) % Æ

(723) &

(724)

(725) # '

(726)

(727) . # . .. . .

(728) J ' . . . (

(729)

(730) ' -.

(731) . . N

(732) P. J. 1 A

(733)

(734)

(735) .

(736)

(737)

(738)

(739)

(740)

(741)

(742) $

(743)

(744) $ $

(745)

(746) " $

(747)

(748)

(749)

(750)

(751)

(752)

(753)

(754)

(755) '

(756)

(757) 5.

(758) 6. R. R. . 6. 5. 1 2

(759) 1

(760)

(761) .

(762) # 15.6 J. 5. 5.

(763).

(764) 6.

(765) 6. / 5.6 / 56. J.

(766) 6. 5.

(767)

(768) . 1 6.

(769) 6.

(770)

(771) !

(772)

(773)

(774)

(775) # 5. % 5.6 J. . 5

(776)

(777)

(778)

(779) 5

(780)

(781) 6 . . . .

(782)

(783) . % 5.6. 6.

(784) . . . .

(785)

(786)

(787) . . .

(788) Æ .

(789)

(790)

(791). . . . . . Æ