HAL Id: tel-01808877
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01808877
Submitted on 6 Jun 2018HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci-entific research documents, whether they are pub-lished or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.
L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.
Preference Handling in Decision-Making Problems
Namrata Patel
To cite this version:
Namrata Patel. Preference Handling in Decision-Making Problems. Artificial Intelligence [cs.AI]. Université Montpellier, 2016. English. �NNT : 2016MONTT286�. �tel-01808877�
+tSP]YtWHYS»<50=,9:0;i +, 465;7,330,9
7YtWHYtLH\ZLPUKLS»tJVSLKVJ[VYHSL 0:
,[KLS»\UP[tKLYLJOLYJOL30944
:WtJPHSP[t ! 05-694(;08<,
7YtZLU[tLWHY5HTYH[H7(;,3
40:, ,5 6,<=9, +,:
79,-,9,5*,: +(5: 3,:
796)3,4,: +, +,*0:065
:V\[LU\LSLVJ[VIYLKL]HU[SLQ\Y`JVTWVZtKL !4TL :V\OPSH2(*0 7YVM <UP] 4VU[WLSSPLY +PYLJ[L\Y 49VSHUK+<*6<95(< 7YVM <UP] 4VU[WLSSPLY *V+PYLJ[L\Y 45PJ>03:65 :9- <UP] *VSSLNL*VYR 9HWWVY[L\Y 4-HYPK56<06<( 4K* <UP] (P_4HYZLPSSL ,_HTPUH[L\Y 45HKQPI3(A((9 4K* <UP] 4VU[WLSSPLY ,_HTPUH[L\Y ,[WYtZPKtWHY !
(JRUV^SLKNLTLU[Z
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¿UVWDFNQRZOHGJHPHQWJRHVWRP\WKHVLVVXSHUYLVRUV6RXKLOD.DFLDQG 5RODQG'XFRXUQDX ZLWKRXWZKRPWKLVZRUNFRXOGQHYHUKDYHUHDFKHGLWVSUHVHQW IRUP , DPSDUWLFXODUO\JUDWHIXOWR0DULDQQH+XFKDUG ZKRLQKHUFDSDFLW\DV KHDGRIWKHHQWLUHGRFWRUDOXQLW KDVKDGWKHWLPHDQGHQHUJ\WRDFWLYHO\LQYHVW KHUVHOILQWKHZHOIDUHRIHYHU\3K' VWXGHQW ,QKHOSLQJPHULSHQP\WKRXJKW WKHDFDGHPLFVXSSRUWDQGHQFRXUDJHPHQW IURPHDFKPHPEHURIP\UHVHDUFKWHDPKHDGHGE\0DULHĥ/DXUH0XJQLHUKDYH EHHQH[FHSWLRQDODQGLQYDOXDEOH (TXDOO\KHOSIXOKDYHEHHQWKHGLVFXVVLRQVZLWK DQGFRQVWDQWJXLGDQFHIURP P\IRUPHUWHDFKHUV9LRODLQH3ULQFH 0DWKLHX5RFKH 0DGDOLQD&URLWRUXDQGODVWEXWFHUWDLQO\QRWWKHOHDVW -HDQĥ3KLOLSSH3URVW
, PXVWDOVRDGGKHUHWKDW, GHHSO\DSSUHFLDWHWKHODE VXSSRUWVWDɱ HYHU\ VLQJOHRQHRIWKHP IRUWKHLUGHGLFDWHGLQYROYHPHQWLQP\SHUVRQDOZHOOĥEHLQJ )RUHPRVWDPRQJWKHVHLV&pFLOH/XNDVLN ZKRQRZNQRZVPHEHWWHUWKDQ, GR P\VHOI 1LFRODV6HUUXULHU WKHVWDOZDUWVXSSRUWHURIWKH3K' VWXGHQWV¶FDXVH KDVEHHQLQFUHGLEOHGXULQJP\HQWLUHVWD\ JRLQJVRRIWHQRXWRIKLVZD\WRKHOSD VWXGHQWLQQHHG $QGWKDQN\RXVRPXFK/DXULH/DYHUQKH IRU\RXUXQIRUJHWWDEOH IULHQGVKLS
$ ¿QDODFNQRZOHGJHPHQWJRHVWR-pU{PH/DQJ 1LF:LOVRQ )DULG1RXLRXD DQG1DGMLE/D]DDUIRUKRQRXULQJPHE\EHLQJDSDUWRIWKHMXU\IRUP\SXEOLF GHIHQFH
9tZ\Tt
,O\DXQHIRUWHFURLVVDQFH jQRVMRXUV GH©VHUYLFHVªLQWHOOLJHQWVSURSRVpVDX[FOLHQWVVXU OHVSODWHVĥIRUPHVGHFRPPHUFHpOHFWURQLTXH GHVWLQpVjXQHDVVLVWDQFHSHUVRQQDOLVpH /¶pWXGHGHSUpIpUHQFHVDVXVFLWpXQJUDQGLQWpUrWGDQVFHFRQWH[WH JUkFHjOHXUXWLOLVDĥ WLRQGDQVODUpVROXWLRQGHSUREOqPHVOLpVjODSULVHGHGpFLVLRQ (QHɱHW ODUHFKHUFKHVXU OHVSUpIpUHQFHVHQLQWHOOLJHQFHDUWL¿FLHOOHĪ,$ī SURSRVHGLɱpUHQWHVPDQLqUHVG¶DERUGHUFH SUREOqPH GHO¶DFTXLVLWLRQGHVSUpIpUHQFHVjOHXUUHSUpVHQWDWLRQIRUPHOOHHW pYHQWXHOĥ OHPHQW jOHXUJHVWLRQVXLYDQWSOXVLHXUVPpWKRGHVGHUDLVRQQHPHQW 'DQVFHWWHWKqVH QRXVDGUHVVRQVODSUREOpPDWLTXHGHODPLVHHQ°XYUHGHSUpIpUHQFHVFRPSDUDWLYHVSRXU O¶DLGHjODGpFLVLRQSDUOHGpYHORSSHPHQWG¶XQV\VWqPHLQWHUDFWLI©LQWHOOLJHQWªGHUHFRPĥ PDQGDWLRQVSHUVRQQDOLVpHV 1RXVVXLYRQVXQHWHQGDQFHUpFHQWH HWOHFRQFHYRQVVXUXQH EDVHGHFRQVLGpUDWLRQVSV\FKRORJLTXHV OLQJXLVWLTXHVHWSHUVRQQHOOHV 1RXVFRQWULEXRQV DLQVLDX[GRPDLQHVVXLYDQWVGHSUpIpUHQFHVHQ,$ ĪīOHXUDFTXLVLWLRQ ĪīOHXUUHSUpVHQĥ WDWLRQ HWĪīOHXUPLVHHQ°XYUH 1RXVH[DPLQRQVG¶DERUGXQJRXORWG¶pWUDQJOHPHQWGDQV O¶DFTXLVLWLRQGHSUpIpUHQFHVHWSURSRVRQVXQHPpWKRGHG¶DFTXLVLWLRQGHSUpIpUHQFHVH[ĥ SULPpHVHQODQJDJHQDWXUHOĪ/1īTXLSHUPHWOHXUUHSUpVHQWDWLRQIRUPHOOHHQWDQWTXH SUpIpUHQFHVFRPSDUDWLYHV 1RXVpWXGLRQVHQVXLWHOHVDVSHFWVWKpRULTXHVGHODUHSUpVHQĥ WDWLRQHWGXUDLVRQQHPHQWDYHFOHVSUpIpUHQFHVFRPSDUDWLYHVSRXUDLGHjODGpFLVLRQ )LQDOHPHQW QRXVGpFULYRQVQRWUHRXWLOGHUHFRPPDQGDWLRQVTXLXWLOLVH ĪīXQHEDVHGH GRQQpHVGHSURGXLWVTXDOL¿pHSDUXQHDQDO\VHGHFULWLTXHVG¶XWLOLVDWHXUV ĪīXQHDSSURFKH LQWHUDFWLYHSRXUJXLGHUOHVXWLOLVDWHXUVjH[SULPHUOHXUVSUpIpUHQFHVFRPSDUDWLYHV HWĪī XQPRWHXUGHUDLVRQQHPHQWTXLPDQLSXOHFHVSUpIpUHQFHVD¿QGHSURSRVHUXQHUHFRPĥ PDQGDWLRQEDVpHVXUOHVSUpIpUHQFHVGHO¶XWLOLVDWHXU (IZ[YHJ[ ,QWHOOLJHQWµVHUYLFHV¶DUHLQFUHDVLQJO\XVHGRQHĥFRPPHUFHSODWIRUPVWRSURYLGHDVVLVĥ WDQFHWRFXVWRPHUV ,QWKLVFRQWH[W SUHIHUHQFHVKDYHJDLQHGUDSLGLQWHUHVWIRUWKHLU XWLOLW\LQVROYLQJSUREOHPVUHODWHGZLWKGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ 5HVHDUFKRQSUHIHUHQFHVLQ DUWL¿FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHĪ$,ī KDVVKHGOLJKWRQYDULRXVZD\VRIWDFNOLQJWKLVSUREOHP UDQJĥ LQJIURPWKHDFTXLVLWLRQRISUHIHUHQFHVWRWKHLUIRUPDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDQGHYHQWXDOO\ WKHLUSURSHUPDQLSXODWLRQ )ROORZLQJDUHFHQWWUHQGRIVWHSSLQJEDFNDQGORRNLQJDW GHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUWV\VWHPVIURPWKHXVHU¶VSRLQWRIYLHZ LH GHVLJQLQJWKHPRQWKHEDVLV RISV\FKRORJLFDO OLQJXLVWLFDQGSHUVRQDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV ZHWDNHXSWKHWDVNRIGHYHORSĥ LQJDQ³LQWHOOLJHQW´WRROZKLFKXVHVFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVIRUSHUVRQDOLVHG GHFLVLRQVXSSRUW :HWDFNOHDQGFRQWULEXWHWRGLɱHUHQWEUDQFKHVRIUHVHDUFKRQSUHIHUĥ HQFHVLQ$,ĪīWKHLUDFTXLVLWLRQĪīWKHLUIRUPDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDQGĪīWKHLULPSOHPHQĥ WDWLRQ :H¿UVWDGGUHVVDERWWOHQHFNLQSUHIHUHQFHDFTXLVLWLRQE\SURSRVLQJDPHWKRG RIDFTXLULQJXVHUSUHIHUHQFHV H[SUHVVHGLQQDWXUDOODQJXDJHĪ1/īZKLFKIDYRXUVWKHLU IRUPDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDQGIXUWKHUPDQLSXODWLRQ :HWKHQIRFXVRQWKHWKHRUHWLFDODVĥ SHFWVRIKDQGOLQJFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVIRUGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW :H¿QDOO\ GHVFULEHRXUWRROIRUSURGXFWUHFRPPHQGDWLRQWKDWXVHV ĪīDUHYLHZĥEDVHGDQDO\VLVWR JHQHUDWHDSURGXFWGDWDEDVH ĪīDQLQWHUDFWLYHSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQXQLWWRJXLGHXVHUV WRH[SUHVVWKHLUSUHIHUHQFHV DQGĪīDUHDVRQLQJHQJLQHWKDWPDQLSXODWHVFRPSDUDWLYH SUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVWRJHQHUDWHDSUHIHUHQFHĥEDVHGRUGHULQJRQRXWFRPHVDVUHFRPĥ PHQGDWLRQV
*VU[LU[Z
0U[YVK\J[PVU 3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^ 0U[YVK\J[PVU ;OLVYL[PJHS-V\UKH[PVUZ 4VKLSSPUN7YLMLYLUJLZ 9LHZVUPUN^P[O7YLMLYLUJLZ! 7YPUJPWSLZHUK4LJOHUPZTZ -YVT;OLVY`[V7YHJ[PJL! 7YLMLYLUJL-VYTHSPZTZ ;OL.LULYHS:JOLTL *VTWHJ[7YLMLYLUJL3HUN\HNLZ )PWVSHY7YLMLYLUJLZ 7YLMLYLUJL(JX\PZP[PVU 7YLMLYLUJL3LHYUPUN 7YLMLYLUJL,SPJP[H[PVU 7YLMLYLUJLZPU+LJPZPVU:\WWVY[ 7YLMLYLUJLZPU9LJVTTLUKLY:`Z[LTZ 7YLMLYLUJLZPU:[HUK(SVUL+LJPZPVU:\WWVY[:`Z[LTZ *VUJS\ZPVU 7YLMLYLUJL(JX\PZP[PVUMVY*VTWHYH[P]L7YLMLYLUJL:[H[LTLU[Z 0U[YVK\J[PVU 7YLMLYLUJLZ 6WPUPVUZHUK[OLPY9LZWLJ[P]L*VYWVYH 7YLMLYLUJLZ]Z6WPUPVUZ P_9LX\PYLTLU[ZMVYHU(WWYVWYPH[L*VYW\Z 3PUN\PZ[PJ-YHTL^VYRMVY0KLU[PM`PUN7YLMLYLUJLZ )HJRNYV\UK! 0U[LSSPNLU[;L_[7YVJLZZPUN 6\Y(WWYVHJO! (U6\[SPUL :[LW*VYW\Z(UUV[H[PVU :[LW0KLU[PM`PUN;L_[\HS*S\LZ :[LW0KLU[PM`PUN7YLMLYLUJL;LTWSH[LZ 7YV[VJVSMVY7YLMLYLUJL,SPJP[H[PVU ,]HS\H[PVUI`7YVVMVM*VUJLW[ *VUJS\ZPVU *VTWHYH[P]L7YLMLYLUJL:[H[LTLU[Z! ( *SVZLY3VVR 0U[YVK\J[PVU -YVT7YLMLYLUJL4VKLSZ[V*VTWHYH[P]L7YLMLYLUJL:[H[LTLU[ZHUK )HJR *VTWHYH[P]L7YLMLYLUJL:[H[LTLU[Z 7YLMLYLUJL:LTHU[PJZ (SNVYP[OTZ[V*VTW\[L7YLMLYLUJL9LSH[PVUZ :WLJPÄJP[` 5VUTVUV[VUPJP[`HUK+PZ[PUN\PZOLK7YLMLYLUJL9L SH[PVUZ (SNVYP[OTZ[V*VTW\[L+PZ[PUN\PZOLK7YLMLYLUJL9LSH[PVUZ 7VZ[\SH[L)HZLK(UHS`ZPZVM7YLMLYLUJL:LTHU[PJZ ;OL7VZ[\SH[LZ -VJ\ZVU[OLÄ]LZLTHU[PJZ *VUJS\ZPVU
( -YHTL^VYR MVY 7LYZVUHSPZLK +LJPZPVU :\WWVY[ \ZPUN *VTWHYH[P]L
7YLMLYLUJL:[H[LTLU[Z 0U[YVK\J[PVU )HJRNYV\UK ;OL7YLMLYLUJL3HUN\HNL 7YLMLYLUJL9LSH[PVUZ -YVT7YLMLYLUJL:[H[LTLU[Z[V7YLMLYLUJL9LSH[PVUZ
;`WLZVM<ZLY7YLMLYLUJLZHUK[OLPY-VYTHS9LWYLZLU[H[PVU ( -YHTL^VYRMVY7LYZVUHSPZLK9LJVTTLUKH[PVU +LZPNU0U[\P[PVUZ +H[HIHZL*YLH[PVUHUK7YLWYVJLZZPUN ,SPJP[H[PVUHUK9LJVTTLUKH[PVU 9LZ\S[ZHUK6IZLY]H[PVUZ 7YLWYVJLZZPUN ;OL>LI(WWSPJH[PVU *VUJS\ZPVU *VUJS\KPUN9LTHYRZ :\TTHY` -\[\YL+PYLJ[PVUZ 9LMLYLUJLZ
0U[YVK\J[PVU
'
ǐǎǔǞǔǚǙ PDNLQJLVDQLQWULQVLFSDUWRIKXPDQH[LVWHQFH DQGFHQWUDOWRLWV DFFRPSOLVKPHQWLVWKHQRWLRQRISUHIHUHQFH ,WLVWKHUHIRUHQRVXUSULVH WKDWWKHVWXG\RISUHIHUHQFHVLVLQWULQVLFWRUHVHDUFKUDQJLQJIURPSKLORVRSK\ DQGSV\FKRORJ\WRHFRQRPLFVDQGVLQFHWKHDGYHQWRIFRPSXWHUVFLHQFH WRDUĥ WL¿FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHĪ$,ī7KHODWWHULVH[SRQHQWLDOO\JDLQLQJLQLPSRUWDQFH DV WHFKQRORJ\PDNHVWKHYLUWXDOZRUOGPRUHDQGPRUHUHDOWRXV DQGRXUFRJQLWLYH FDSDFLWLHVIDLOWRNHHSXS :HQRZKDYHYDULRXVGHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUWV\VWHPVVXFK DVZHEĥEDVHGUHFRPPHQGHUV\VWHPV SHUVRQDODVVLVWDQWV WDUJHWHGDGYHUWLVLQJ HWF WRVLPSOLI\RXUGDLO\OLIH DQGRWKHUVGHVLJQHGWRSURYLGHDXWRPDWHGSODQĥ QLQJ VFKHGXOLQJDQGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJLQDXWRQRPRXVV\VWHPV VXFKDV1$6$¶V 0DUV([SORUDWLRQ5RYHUV $OOWKLVSURJUHVVLVWKHIUXLWRIDYHU\LQWHUHVWLQJSRLQWLQWLPHIRU$, UHĥ VHDUFK LWLVSRLVHGLQDG\QDPLFHTXLOLEULXPEHWZHHQWKHRUHWLFDODQGSUDFWLFDO DGYDQFHV FDXVHGE\RXUUHDGLQHVVWRVHHNWKHLQWHUQHWWRDVVLVWXVLQDOORXUDFĥ WLYLWLHV 7KHSUDFWLFDODGYDQFHVNHHSRXULQWHUHVWDOLYHDQGWKHGDWDZHJHQHUDWH EHFRPHVWKHWHVWLQJJURXQGIRUIXUWKHUDGYDQFHV ,WLVDWLPHEULPPLQJZLWK VLJQL¿FDQWEUHDNWKURXJKV ZKHUH\HDUVRIWKHRUHWLFDOUHVHDUFK¿QDOO\EHDUIUXLW LQRXUHYHU\GD\OLIH 8VLQJWKLVDVDVSULQJERDUG WKLVWKHVLVH[SORUHVSUHIHUHQFHKDQGOLQJLQWKHĥ RUHWLFDO$, UHVHDUFKDQGLWVSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQVWRSHUVRQDOLVHGGHFLVLRQVXSĥ SRUW7YVISLT:[H[LTLU[
,QWHOOLJHQWµVHUYLFHV¶DUHLQFUHDVLQJO\XVHGRQHĥFRPPHUFHSODWIRUPVWRSURĥ YLGHDVVLVWDQFHWRFXVWRPHUV ,QWKLVFRQWH[W SUHIHUHQFHVKDYHJDLQHGUDSLG LQWHUHVWIRUWKHLUXWLOLW\LQVROYLQJSUREOHPVUHODWHGWRGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ 5Hĥ VHDUFKRQSUHIHUHQFHVLQ$, KDVVKHGOLJKWRQYDULRXVZD\VRIWDFNOLQJWKLVSUREĥ OHP ULJKWIURPWKHDFTXLVLWLRQRISUHIHUHQFHVWRWKHLUIRUPDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDQG HYHQWXDOO\WKHLUSURSHUPDQLSXODWLRQ 1XPHURXVSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQPHWKĥ RGVGHYHORSHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHDUHQRZHPSOR\HGLQLQWHOOLJHQWVHUYLFHVVXFKDV0U[YVK\J[PVU
UHFRPPHQGHUV\VWHPV 7KHVHKDYHEHHQVHOHFWHGIRUWKHLUDELOLW\WRDGDSWWR WKHH[LVWLQJSDUDGLJPLQUHFRPPHQGDWLRQDOJRULWKPV
7KHUHLV KRZHYHU DUHFHQWWUHQGRIVWHSSLQJEDFNDQGORRNLQJDWVXFKGHĥ FLVLRQVXSSRUWV\VWHPVIURPWKHXVHU¶VSRLQWRIYLHZ LH GHVLJQLQJWKHPRQ WKHEDVLVRISV\FKRORJLFDO OLQJXLVWLFDQGSHUVRQDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV 6HHQLQWKLV OLJKW WKHUHDUHVHYHUDOH[LVWLQJSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVZKLFKDUHZHOOĥVXLWHGWR SHUVRQDOLVHGGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW DQGUHPDLQVWLOOWREHH[SORLWHGLQUHDOĥZRUOGDSĥ SOLFDWLRQV :HIROORZWKLVWUHQGDQGFDUYHWKHZD\IRURQHVXFKIRUPDOLVP WKDW RI FRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV WRPDNHLWVMRXUQH\IURPWKHDEVWUDFWWRWKH FRQFUHWH %\WDNLQJXSWKHWDVNRIGHYHORSLQJDQ³LQWHOOLJHQW´WRROZKLFKXVHVWKLVOHVV H[SORUHGWKHPHIRUSHUVRQDOLVHGGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW ZHWDFNOHDQGFRQWULEXWHWR GLɱHUHQWEUDQFKHVRIUHVHDUFKRQSUHIHUHQFHVLQ$,ĪīWKHLUDFTXLVLWLRQ ĪīWKHLU IRUPDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDQGPDQLSXODWLRQDQGĪīWKHLULPSOHPHQWDWLRQ 2XUDSĥ SURDFKWRZDUGVWKHGLɱHUHQWVWXGLHVJRHVEH\RQGWKHVFRSHRIDQLVRODWHGSURMHFW FXOPLQDWLQJLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDVLQJOHWRRO ZHFRQGXFWWKHPDVZRUNWKDW FRQWULEXWHVWRWKHUHVHDUFKDQGGHYHORSPHQWFRPPXQLW\ RSHQLQJXSWKHRSĥ SRUWXQLW\IRURWKHUDSSOLFDWLRQVWREHEXLOWXSRQLW
9LZLHYJO4L[OVKVSVN`
:HEHJLQRXUVWXG\ZLWKDQLQĥGHSWKDQDO\VLVRIUHVHDUFKRQSUHIHUHQFHV PDNLQJDQHGXFDWHGFKRLFHDERXWWKHIRUPDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQODQJXDJHDQGLWVDFĥ FRPSDQ\LQJUHDVRQLQJDOJRULWKPVZKLFKZRXOGUHVSRQGEHVWWRDVVLVWLQJXVHUVLQ GHFLVLRQĥPDNLQJ :HWKHQORRNDWVRPHRIWKHVWDWHĥRIĥWKHĥDUWSUHIHUHQFHĥEDVHG GHFLVLRQVXSSRUWV\VWHPVWRGHWHUPLQHKRZEHVWWRLPSOHPHQWDWRROEDVHGRQ WKLVODQJXDJH 7KLVFKDONVRXWWKHUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYHVIRUWKHSUHVHQWWKHVLV 2XU¿UVWREMHFWLYHFRQFHUQVWKHDFTXLVLWLRQRISUHIHUHQFHVZKLFKLQFOXGHVĪī DGGUHVVLQJDQH[LVWLQJERWWOHQHFNE\SURSRVLQJDPHWKRGRIHOLFLWLQJXVHUSUHIHUĥ HQFHV H[SUHVVHGLQQDWXUDOODQJXDJHĪ1/īZKLFKIDYRXUVWKHLUIRUPDOUHSUHVHQĥ WDWLRQDQGIXUWKHUPDQLSXODWLRQ ĪīWHVWLQJWKHIHDVLELOLW\RIWKLVPHWKRGXVLQJ DSURRIRIFRQFHSWH[SHULPHQW WKHUHE\ĪīFRQVWUXFWLQJDFRUSXVRISUHIHUHQFH H[SUHVVLRQVDQGDQDFFRPSDQ\LQJOH[LFRQRISUHIHUHQFHWHUPLQRORJ\ 7KHQH[WSRUWLRQRIRXUVWXG\IRFXVVHVRQWKHWKHRUHWLFDODVSHFWVRIKDQĥ GOLQJFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVIRUGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW &RQVLGHULQJWKDW LQSUDFWLFHWKLVUHTXLUHVDFTXLULQJSUHIHUHQFHVH[SUHVVHGE\DXVHU LWZRXOGEH XVHIXOWRNQRZKRZEHVWWRH[SORLWWKHH[SUHVVLYLW\RIWKHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFW 7KLVUHTXLUHVDWKRURXJKXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHYHU\QDWXUHDQGEHKDYLRXURI FRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV :HWKHUHIRUHWDNHXSH[LVWLQJZRUNRQWKH WRSLFDQGDQDO\VHLWZUW VRPHRIWKHEDVLFSULQFLSOHVWKDWJRYHUQSUHIHUHQFH ORJLFVLQJHQHUDOWRVXSSRUWRXULQWXLWLRQEHKLQGXVLQJWKLVIRUPDOLVP0U[YVK\J[PVU
,QWKH¿QDOSDUWRIWKHVWXG\ ZHZRUNRXWKRZDOORIWKHDERYHFDQFRPH WRJHWKHULQDQLQWHOOLJHQWWRRO FDSDEOHRISHUIRUPLQJSHUVRQDOLVHGGHFLVLRQVXSĥ SRUW :H¿UVWGHVLJQDQLQWHUDFWLYHPRGXOHIRUSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQZKLFK XVHVVWDWLVWLFDOO\ĥGULYHQPHWKRGVLQLQIRUPDWLRQUHWULHYDOWRPLQLPLVHXVHULQĥ WHUDFWLRQ ZLWKRXWORVLQJRXWRQH[SUHVVLYLW\ :HWKHQIRFXVRQWKHGHVLJQRI WKHFRUHRIRXUV\VWHP WKHUHDVRQLQJHQJLQH 2XUUHDVRQLQJHQJLQHFRPSXWHV UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVIRUWKHXVHU DQGLVHQWLUHO\EDVHGRQWKHWKHRUHWLFDOUHVHDUFK RQFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV :HFRPSOHWHRXUVWXG\E\LPSOHPHQWĥ LQJWKHSURSRVHGIUDPHZRUNLQDVSHFL¿FVFHQDULR GLVFXVVLQJLWVSHUIRUPDQFH DQGDGKHUHQFHWRWKHWKHRU\¶VSUHGLFWLRQV
;OLZPZ:[Y\J[\YL
$GGUHVVLQJWKHIXQGDPHQWDOO\PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\QDWXUHRISUHIHUHQFHV ZH EHJLQRXUWKHVLVZLWKDOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZLQFKDSWHU SUHVHQWLQJDEURDGRXWOLQH RIWKHLUGLYHUVHLQYROYHPHQWLQGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW 2XURZQFRQWULEXWLRQVEHĥ LQJERWKWKHRUHWLFDODQGSUDFWLFDOE\QDWXUH ZHDGRSWDQµLQFKĥGHHSĥPLOHĥZLGH¶ RXWORRNWRUHYHDOWKHLQWHUPLQJOLQJEHWZHHQWKHVH ZLWKRXWJRLQJLQWRWKHQLWW\ĥ JULWW\RIHLWKHUDVSHFW 7KLVUHYHDOVWKHGLɱHUHQWUHVHDUFKWUDFNVRISUHIHUHQFH KDQGOLQJLQGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW OD\LQJRXWWKHPRWLYDWLRQVIRURXUFRQWULEXWLRQV &KDSWHUV DQGWKHQXVHWKHµPLOHĥGHHSĥLQFKĥZLGH¶DSSURDFKRQHDFKLQGLĥ YLGXDOFRQWULEXWLRQ DOORZLQJWKHUHDGHUWRSOXQJHLQWRHDFKZLWKRXWORVLQJWUDFN RIWKHXQLI\LQJIDFWRU *OHW[LY ,QFKDSWHUZHIROORZWKHKLVWRU\DQGEDFNJURXQGRIUHVHDUFKRQ SUHIHUHQFHVDQGWKHLULQYROYHPHQWLQGHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUW 7KLVLQFOXGHVWKHPDWKĥ HPDWLFDODQGORJLFDOIRXQGDWLRQVRIUHSUHVHQWLQJDQGUHDVRQLQJZLWKSUHIHUHQFHV DORQJZLWKDQRYHUYLHZRIVRPHZHOOĥNQRZQSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVLQ$, UHĥ VHDUFK :HWKHQPRYHRQWRH[SORULQJH[LVWLQJWHFKQLTXHVLQDFTXLULQJSUHIHUĥ HQFHV UHYHDOLQJDFRPPRQO\ĥNQRZQERWWOHQHFNLQWKLV¿HOG :HFRQFOXGHZLWK DVXUYH\RIWKHXVHRISUHIHUHQFHVLQGHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUWV\VWHPV IRFXVVLQJRQKRZ WKHIRUPDOLVPVYLVLWHGKDYHEHHQLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRWKHP $FTXDLQWLQJWKHUHDGHUZLWKWKHH[LVWLQJZRUNGRQHRQWKHWRSLF ZHWKHQ SRLQWRXWWKHDUHDVZHVHHNWRFRQWULEXWHWR KLJKOLJKWLQJRXUFKRLFHVZLWKFXUĥ UHQWUHVHDUFKWUHQGVDQGPRWLYDWLRQV *OHW[LY 2XU¿UVWFRQWULEXWLRQDGGUHVVHVWKHERWWOHQHFNLQSUHIHUHQFHDFĥ TXLVLWLRQWKDWZDVUHYHDOHGLQFKDSWHU :HSURSRVHDPHWKRGRIDFTXLULQJXVHU SUHIHUHQFHV H[SUHVVHGLQQDWXUDOODQJXDJHĪ1/īZKLFKIDYRXUVWKHLUIRUPDOUHSĥ UHVHQWDWLRQDQGIXUWKHUPDQLSXODWLRQXVLQJDOJRULWKPVGHYHORSHGLQSUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK ,QSDUWLFXODU ZHLQYHVWLJDWHH[SUHVVLRQVZKLFKFRXOGEHDGDSWHGWR0U[YVK\J[PVU
FRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV VLQFHWKH\RɱHUDQLQWXLWLYHDQGQDWXUDOZD\WR
UHSUHVHQWXVHUSUHIHUHQFHVDQGOHDGWRPDQ\W\SHVRISUHIHUHQFHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ ODQJXDJHV 0RUHRYHU WKH\FDQEHIXUWKHUGH¿QHGXVLQJGLɱHUHQWSUHIHUHQFH VHPDQWLFVĪZHFDOOWKHVHµ$, SUHIHUHQFHVHPDQWLFV¶WRDYRLGFRQIXVLRQZLWKWKH WHUPµVHPDQWLFV¶LQWKHOLQJXLVWLFVHQVHī ZKLFKOHQGDJUHDWHUGHSWKWRWKHVHSUHIĥ HUHQFHV 7KLVLVEHFDXVHHDFK$, SUHIHUHQFHVHPDQWLFVRɱHUVDGLɱHUHQWZD\RI RUGHULQJWKHRXWFRPHVWKDWVDWLVI\WKHJLYHQSUHIHUHQFHV 2XUDLPWKHUHIRUHLV WRDFTXLUH1/ SUHIHUHQFHVWKDWUHÀHFWWKH$, SUHIHUHQFHVHPDQWLFVWKDWFRXOG EHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHP 2XUDSSURDFKLVWRGHYHORSDSURWRFROIRUSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQDQGWREXLOG WKHOLQJXLVWLFUHVRXUFHVLWUHTXLUHV 7KHVHUHVRXUFHVPXVWQRWRQO\FDSWXUH1/ SUHIHUHQFHH[SUHVVLRQVEXWDOVRPDWFKWKHPZLWKWKHGLɱHUHQW$, SUHIHUHQFH VHPDQWLFV ZKLFKOHDGWRGLVWLQFWVROYLQJSURFHGXUHV :HGHVLJQRXUVWXG\EDVHG RQWKHIROORZLQJNH\TXHVWLRQV Īī$UHSUHIHUHQFHOLQJXLVWLFSDWWHUQVGLɱHUHQW IURPRSLQLRQH[SUHVVLRQV ZKHQIDFHGZLWK$, SUHIHUHQFHVHPDQWLFVWKHRULHV" Īī'RHVUHWULHYLQJWKHPUHTXLUHVSHFL¿FFRUSRUD LH GLDORJXHFRUSRUDVLQFH HOLFLWDWLRQLVDG\QDPLFSURFHVV DQGLIVR ZKDWDUHWKHOLQJXLVWLFFOXHVGHQRWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHH[SUHVVLRQV" Īī&DQQDWXUDOODQJXDJHSURFHVVLQJKHOSLQLPSURYLQJ WKHHOLFLWDWLRQSURFHVVE\LQFUHDVLQJWKHDFFXUDF\RIWKHLQWHUDFWLRQZLWKWKH XVHU" :HWKHQWHVWRXUSURWRFROE\PHDQVRIDFURZGĥVRXUFLQJH[SHULPHQWZKLFK VHUYHVDVDSURRIRIFRQFHSW WKHUHE\SURYLGLQJDFRQFUHWHOLQNEHWZHHQQDWXUDO ODQJXDJHH[SUHVVLRQVDQGUHVHDUFKLQSUHIHUHQFHVLQDUWL¿FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFH 7KH OLQJXLVWLFUHVRXUFHVLWUHTXLUHVDUHEXLOWXVLQJWZRFRQVWUXFWV ĪīDSUHIHUHQFH OH[LFRQZLWKDGLVWLQFWLYHVRUWLQJPHWKRGXVLQJ)RUPDO&RQFHSW$QDO\VLVĪ)&$ī WKDWPDLQWDLQVLWVVHPDQWLFFODVVL¿FDWLRQ DQGĪī SUHIHUHQFHWHPSODWHV ZKLFKGHĥ VFULEHVWUXFWXUDOSDWWHUQVXVLQJZRUGVIURPWKHOH[LFRQWKDWLGHQWLI\1/ SUHIĥ HUHQFHH[SUHVVLRQVDQGGLVWLQJXLVK$, SUHIHUHQFHVHPDQWLFV 7KURXJKWKHUHĥ VXOWVRIRXUFURZGĥVRXUFLQJH[SHULPHQW ZHKDYHEXLOWDFRUSXVZKLFKFRQWDLQV DXWKHQWLFXVHUSUHIHUHQFHVLQQDWXUDOODQJXDJHFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRFRPSDUDWLYH VWDWHPHQWVDQGWKHLUDVVRFLDWHGVHPDQWLFVLQDUWL¿FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFH *OHW[LY 7KHUHVXOWVRIRXU¿UVWFRQWULEXWLRQVKRZWKDWFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUĥ HQFHVWDWHPHQWVDUHDZHOOĥVXLWHGIRUPDOLVPIRUSHUVRQDOLVHGGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW E\ZD\RIWKHLUĪīSUR[LPLW\WRWKHLQWXLWLYHZD\LQZKLFKZHH[SUHVVSUHIHUĥ HQFHVDQGWKHLUĪīH[SUHVVLYLW\LQUHÀHFWLQJWKHQXDQFHVRIUHDVRQLQJDERXW SUHIHUHQFHV 2XUVHFRQGFRQWULEXWLRQDGGUHVVHVWKHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFWRI FRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVDQGWKHLUDVVRFLDWHGVHPDQWLFV :HORRN DWWKHLURULJLQV DVVRFLDWHGUHDVRQLQJPHFKDQLVPV DQGPDNHDGHHSHUDQDO\VLV DERXWWKHLUEHKDYLRXU
:HEHJLQZLWKDULJRURXVWUHDWPHQWRIWKHIRUPXODWLRQRIFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIĥ HUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV 7KLVPHDQVJRLQJEDFNWRWKHPDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHOOLQJRI
0U[YVK\J[PVU SUHIHUHQFHVDQGEXLOGLQJXSRXUWKHRU\IURPWKHUHWRWKHIRUPXODWLRQRIFRPĥ SDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV :HGLVFXVVWKHGLɱHUHQWVHPDQWLFVGH¿QHGIRU FRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVDQGWKHSLWIDOOVDQGDGYDQWDJHVRIXVLQJHDFK RQHRIWKHP 1H[W ZHGLVFXVVWKHWDVNRIFRPSXWLQJSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQVLQGXFHGE\VHWV RIFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVDQGRQHRUVHYHUDOVHPDQWLFV :HH[ĥ SODLQWKHH[LVWLQJUHDVRQLQJPHFKDQLVPVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHVHVWDWHPHQWV DQG SUHVHQWDOJRULWKPVGHYHORSHGLQSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKIRUWKLVSXUSRVH :HFRQFOXGHWKHFKDSWHUZLWKDSRVWXODWHĥEDVHGDQDO\VLVRIWKHVHVWDWHPHQWV 2XUVHOHFWLRQRISRVWXODWHVLVPRWLYDWHGE\SURSHUWLHVWKDWFRXOGRSWLPLVHWKH GHFLVLRQĥPDNLQJSURFHVVĪLH LQIHUULQJQHZSUHIHUHQFHVIURPSUHYLRXVO\NQRZQ SUHIHUHQFHVī 2XUDQDO\VLVWKHQFRQVLVWVRIH[DPLQLQJWKHDɱHFWVRISUHIHUHQFH VHPDQWLFVRQFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVZUWWKHVHSRVWXODWHV VHHNLQJ IRUSURSHUWLHVWKDWFRXOGFKDUDFWHULVHWKHLUEHKDYLRXU ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ RQHRIWKHUHVXOWVRIRXUDQDO\VLVFRUURERUDWHVDZHOOĥNQRZQ VKRUWFRPLQJLQDSRSXODUO\XVHGSUHIHUHQFHVHPDQWLFV ,WDOVRUHYHDOVFHUWDLQ VHPDQWLFVWKDWKDYHYHU\LQWHUHVWLQJSURSHUWLHV UHJDUGLQJWKHFRPSRVLWLRQGHĥ FRPSRVLWLRQRISUHIHUHQFHV *OHW[LY 2XU¿QDOFRQWULEXWLRQLVWKHGHVLJQRIDSHUVRQDOLVHGGHFLVLRQVXSĥ SRUWV\VWHPXVLQJFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV :HDGGUHVVDVLQJOHXVHU IRUSHUVRQDOLVHGGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWE\HOLFLWLQJWKHLUFXUUHQWSUHIHUHQFHVDQGSURĥ YLGLQJDUHFRPPHQGDWLRQEDVHGH[FOXVLYHO\RQWKHVHSUHIHUHQFHV 5HO\LQJERWK RQVWDWLVWLFDOO\ĥGULYHQ$, IRUSRODULVHGIHDWXUHGHWHFWLRQDQGORJLFĥEDVHG$, JOHDQHGIURPWKHRUHWLFDOVWXGLHVDERXWUHDVRQLQJZLWKSUHIHUHQFHV RXUV\VWHP FRQVLVWVRIĪīDSUHSURFHVVLQJXQLW ĪīDQLQWHUDFWLYHSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQXQLW ĪīDSUHIHUHQFHORJLFEDVHGUHDVRQLQJHQJLQHDQGĪīD¿QDOUHFRPPHQGDWLRQ PRGXOHZKLFKHQVXUHVWKDWWKHFRPSXWHGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQOLVWLVVDWLVIDFWRU\ ĪLH UHVROYHVLQVWDQFHVRIHPSW\WRRODUJHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQOLVWVEHIRUHSURYLGĥ LQJ¿QDOUHVXOWVī 2XUDFFRPSDQ\LQJLPSOHPHQWDWLRQLVFHQWUHGRQWKHSUREOHP RIFKRRVLQJDKRWHO EDVHGRQDQDSSURSULDWHFRUSXVRIKRWHOUHYLHZV
0U[YVK\J[PVU
3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^
0U[YVK\J[PVU
5
ǐǞǐnjǝǎǓǐǝǞ KDYHORQJEHHQLQYROYHGLQWKHVWXG\RISUHIHUHQFHVIRUWKHLU XWLOLW\LQVROYLQJSUREOHPVUHODWHGWRGHFLVLRQĥPDNLQJ :LWKWKHDGYHQW RIDUWL¿FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHLQWKH¿HOGRIFRPSXWHUVFLHQFH WKLVWRSLFKDVJDLQHG SDUWLFXODULQWHUHVWZLWKLQWKH$, FRPPXQLW\ DQGLVRQHRIWKHFRUHLVVXHVLQWKH GHVLJQRIDQ\V\VWHPWKDWDXWRPDWHVRUVXSSRUWVGHFLVLRQĥPDNLQJ :HWKHUHIRUH VXUYH\LWVVDOLHQWSRLQWVLQWKLVFKDSWHU WRSODFHWKHFRQWULEXWLRQVSUHVHQWHGLQ WKLVWKHVLVZLWKLQWKHLUVFLHQWL¿FFRQWH[W 7KHEDVLFHOHPHQWVWKDWFRQVWLWXWHWKHKDQGOLQJRISUHIHUHQFHVLQ$, FDQEH LGHQWL¿HGE\DVNLQJWKHIROORZLQJTXHVWLRQV Īī:KDWPDWKHPDWLFDOVWUXFWXUHV DFFXUDWHO\GHVFULEHWKHFRJQLWLYHQRWLRQRISUHIHUHQFH DQGZKLFKNLQGVDUHRI SDUWLFXODULQWHUHVWLQWKH$, FRQWH[W" Īī:KDWIRUPVRIUHDVRQLQJLQFRUSRUDWH SUHIHUHQFHVLQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ DQGKRZGRZHDFWXDOO\FRPSXWHZLWKWKHP" Īī$UHWKHVHPDWKHPDWLFDOVWUXFWXUHVHDVLO\GHVFULEHGLQSUDFWLFH" ,IQRW ZKDW IRUPDOLVPVHDVHWKHLUWUDQVLWLRQIURPWKHRU\WRSUDFWLFH" Īī2QFHDIRUPDOLVPLV HVWDEOLVKHG KRZFDQZHREWDLQSUHIHUHQFHVIURPXVHUV DJHQWV HWF WKDWFRPSO\ ZLWKWKHIRUPDOLVP" $QVZHULQJWKH¿UVWWZRTXHVWLRQVHVWDEOLVKHVWKHWKHRUHWLFDOIRXQGDWLRQVRI KDQGOLQJSUHIHUHQFHV DQGZLOOEHGHVFULEHGLQ 7KHQH[WWZRTXHVWLRQVDGĥ GUHVVWKHLUSDVVDJHIURPWKHRU\WRSUDFWLFHDQGDUHUHVSHFWLYHO\DQVZHUHGLQ DQG +DYLQJFRYHUHGSUHIHUHQFHKDQGOLQJLQ$,ZHFRPSOHWHRXUOLWHUDWXUH UHYLHZLQ ZLWKDVXUYH\RIVRPHRILWVFXUUHQWDSSOLFDWLRQVLQSHUVRQDOLVHG GHFLVLRQVXSSRUW 7KHDGYDQFHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHODVWWZRVHFWLRQVZLOOVKRZ KRZSUHIHUHQFHVLQ$, KDYHH[SORGHGWRGD\LQWRDQH[FLWLQJDQGFUXFLDODVSHFW RIDUWL¿FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFH3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^
;OLVYL[PJHS-V\UKH[PVUZ
7KHSDVWWZRGHFDGHVKDYHVHHQWKHHPHUJHQFHDQGIUXLWLRQRIWKH¿HOGRI ³SUHIHUHQFHV´LQ$,ZLWKVHYHUDOUHVHDUFKJURXSV GHGLFDWHGZRUNVKRSV FRQIHUĥ HQFHVDQGHGLWRULDOHQGHDYRXUVDLPHGDWSURPRWLQJWKLVPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\WRSLF Ī*ROGVPLWKDQG-XQNHU %UDIPDQDQG'RPVKODN )UQNUDQ]DQG +OOHUPHLHU .DFL 'RPVKODNHW DO 3LJR]]LHW DO ī :H SDUWLFXODUO\PHQWLRQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\(852 ZRUNLQJJURXS IRU$GYDQFHVLQ3UHIHUHQFH+DQGOLQJ
7KHVHVWXGLHV¿QGWKHLUURRWVRXWVLGHWKH¿HOGRIFRPSXWHUVFLHQFHLQWKH GLVWLQFWDUHDVRIHFRQRPLFV RSHUDWLRQVUHVHDUFKDQGSKLORVRSK\ ZLWKWKHIRUPDO GHYHORSPHQWVRI ħ GHFLVLRQWKHRU\ VRFLDOFKRLFHDQGJDPHWKHRU\Ī9RQ1HXPDQQDQG0RUĥ JHQVWHUQ $UURZ ī DQG ħ WKHORJLFRISUHIHUHQFHVĪ+DOOGpQ 9RQ:ULJKW ī %XLOGLQJXSRQWKHVHZRUNV $, UHVHDUFKHUVHVWDEOLVKHGWKHWKHRUHWLFDOEDVH IRUKDQGOLQJSUHIHUHQFHV SUHIHUHQFHPRGHOV DQGWKHLUQXPHULFDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDQGUHDVRQLQJWKHĥ RULHVĪ)LVKEXUQ .UDQW]HW DO 5RXEHQVDQG9LQFNH )LVKĥ EXUQ ī DQG
QHZHU SUHIHUHQFHORJLFV HQULFKLQJWKHIRUPHUWKURXJKWKHLQYHVWLJDWLRQ DQGIRUPDOLVDWLRQRIQRQĥPRQRWRQLFUHDVRQLQJĪ0F'HUPRWWDQG'R\OH 0F&DUWK\ 6KRKDP E .UDXVHW DO ī
:HVKDOOORRNDWWKHVHWZRDVSHFWVPRUHFORVHO\LQWKLVVHFWLRQ $, UHĥ VHDUFKHUVWKHQFRQVWUXFWHGXSRQWKLVEDVHWRGHYHORSWKHIRUPDOLVPVWKDWDOORZ SXWWLQJSUHIHUHQFHVLQWRSUDFWLFH WKLVZLOOEHWKHWRSLFRIWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ
4VKLSSPUN7YLMLYLUJLZ
,PSOLFLWLQWKHZRUGSUHIHUHQFHOLHVWKHLGHDRIFRPSDULVRQ $ SUHIHUHQFH H[LVWVRQO\ZKHQDOWHUQDWLYHVFDQEHFRPSDUHGDQGHYDOXDWHGDFFRUGLQJWRRQH¶V OLNLQJ 1RZ D¿UVWVWHSLQWKHVFLHQWL¿FH[SORUDWLRQRIDFRQFHSW HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQLWLVDEVWUDFW LVWKHEXLOGLQJRILWV PRGHO LH DPDWKHPDWLFDOVWUXFWXUH WKDWFDQFDSWXUHWKHHVVHQWLDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHSDUDGLJPDQGWKHUHE\DLGLQWKH FRQFUHWLVDWLRQRIWKHVDLGFRQFHSW 7KDWEHLQJVR ZHFDQLQWXLWDPRGHOIRU SUHIHUHQFHVLQGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWREHDQ RUGHULQJRYHUDVHWRISRVVLEOHRXWFRPHVRUDOWHUQDWLYHV
)RUPDOO\ SUHIHUHQFHPRGHʃLQJ UHTXLUHVPDWKHPDWLFDOO\GH¿QLQJDUHODWLRQWKDW FRPSDUHVRXWFRPHVDQGLGHQWLI\LQJWKHGLɱHUHQWSURSHUWLHVWKDWWKLVUHODWLRQ
KWWSSUHIHUHQFHKDQGOLQJIUHHIU
;OLVYL[PJHS-V\UKH[PVUZ FRXOGKDYH RQWKHEDVLVRIZKLFKGLɱHUHQWSUHIHUHQFHPRGHOVFDQEHHVWDEOLVKHG 7KLVLVEDVHGRQDQGDGDSWHGIURPH[LVWLQJQRWLRQVLQRUGHUWKHRU\ :HEHJLQE\UHYLHZLQJWKHVH DQGWKHEDVLFPDWKHPDWLFDOSULQFLSOHVLQYROYHG LQWKHP +DYLQJGRQHVR ZHVKRZKRZSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQVFDQEHGH¿QHG IROORZLQJWKHVDPHSULQFLSOHVDQGWKHQPDNHDVXUYH\RIVRPHFXUUHQWSUHIHUHQFH PRGHOV 7KURXJKRXWWKLVVHFWLRQ ZHDGRSWWKHQRWDWLRQIURP 5RXEHQVDQG 9LQFNH Īī
6YKLY;OLVY`! +LÄUP[PVUZ $ ELQDU\UHODWLRQ R FDQEHGHVFULEHGDVDSDLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQRIHOHPHQWVLQDVHW S ZKLFKH[SUHVVHVWKHLUPXWXDO RĥUHODWLRQVKLS
+LÄUP[PVU )PUHY`9LSH[PVU /HW R ⊆ S × S ,I (a, b) ∈ R WKHQRQHVD\VWKDW WKHHOHPHQW a LVLQ ELQDU\UHODWLRQ R WRWKHHOHPHQW b $QDOWHUQDWLYHQRWDWLRQ IRU (a, b) ∈ R LV aRb
7KHIROORZLQJDUHVRPHEDVLFSURSHUWLHVRIELQDU\UHODWLRQV ħ R LV UHÁH[LYH Lɱ ∀a ∈ S, aRa
ħ R LV LUUHÁH[LYH Lɱ ∀a ∈ S, QRW(aRa)
ħ R LV FRPSOHWH Lɱ ∀a, b ∈ S ZHKDYH aRb RU bRa
ħ R LV WUDQVLWLYH Lɱ ∀a, b, c ∈ S LI aRb DQG bRc WKHQ aRc ħ R LV V\PPHWULF Lɱ ∀a, b ∈ S LI aRb WKHQ bRa
ħ R LV DQWLV\PPHWULF Lɱ ∀a, b ∈ S LI aRb DQG bRa WKHQD E ħ R LV DV\PPHWULF Lɱ ∀a, b ∈ S ZHKDYH QRWĪaRb DQG bRaī
'HSHQGLQJRQWKHSURSHUWLHVVDWLV¿HGE\DJLYHQELQDU\UHODWLRQ LWFDQEH FKDUDFWHULVHGDVDQRUGHUUHODWLRQZKHUHWKHRUGHUFRXOGEH D TXDVLĦRUGHU RU
SUHRUGHU D SDUWLDORUGHU RUMXVWDQ RUGHU E\DEXVHRIODQJXDJH D WRWDORUGHU RU OLQHDU RUGHU RU FRPSOHWHRUGHU 6HWVHTXLSSHGZLWKRUGHUUHODWLRQVDUHNQRZQDV RUGHUHG VHWV 7KHVHDUHIRUPDOO\GH¿QHGDVIROORZLQJ
+LÄUP[PVU 6YKLYLK:L[Z /HW S EHDVHW $Q RUGHU ĪRUSDUWLDORUGHUīRQ S LVGHĥ ¿QHGDVDELQDU\UHODWLRQ 6 RQ S ZKLFKLVUHÀH[LYH WUDQVLWLYHDQGDQWLV\PPHWULF $ VHW S HTXLSSHGZLWKDQRUGHUUHODWLRQ 6 LVVDLGWREHD SDUWLDʃ\RUGHUHGVHW DOVRNQRZQE\LWVVKRUWKDQGQRWDWLRQ SRVHW
:KHQ 6 LVQRWQHFHVVDULO\DQWLV\PPHWULF LWLVGH¿QHGDVD TXDVLĦRUGHU RU
SUHRUGHU
:KHQ 6 LVFRPSOHWH LWLVVDLGWREHD WRWDORUGHU DQG S LVD WRWDʃ\RUGHUHGVHW DOVRNQRZQDVD FKDLQ
:HQRZVKRZKRZSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQVFDQEHGH¿QHGDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\OHDG WRGLɱHUHQWRUGHULQJVWUXFWXUHV HDFKEHLQJDSUHIHUHQFHPRGHO
3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^ 7YLMLYLUJL9LSH[PVUZ )ROORZLQJWKHDIRUHĥPHQWLRQHGGH¿QLWLRQRIELQDU\UHĥ ODWLRQVDQGWKHLUEDVLFSURSHUWLHV ZHDUHQRZZHOOĥHTXLSSHGIRUPRGHOOLQJSUHIĥ HUHQFHV $ SUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQ LVGH¿QHGRQDVHW O RI REMHFWVRXWFRPHVDOWHUQDWLYHV WKDWFDQEHFRPSDUHGRUHYDOXDWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUVDWLVIDFWLRQRISUHIHUHQFH
+LÄUP[PVU 7YLMLYLUJL9LSH[PVU /HW O EHDVHWRIRXWFRPHV DELQDU\UHODWLRQ ⊆ O × ODQG o, o′ ∈ OVXFKWKDW o LVLQELQDU\UHODWLRQWR o′ZUW 7KHQWKH
QRWDWLRQ o o′LVUHDGDV³o LVDWOHDVWDVSUHIHUUHGDV o′´ DQG LVGH¿QHGDVD
SUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQ
'H¿QHGLQWKLVZD\ VDWLV¿HVHDFKRIWKHSURSHUWLHVRIELQDU\UHODWLRQV ZKHQHYHUWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHFRQGLWLRQVDUHPHW )XUWKHUPRUH LQWKHFRQWH[WRI GHFLVLRQVXSSRUW ZHGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQ VWULFW LQGLɲHUHQW DQG LQFRPSDUDEOH UHODĥ WLRQVLQWKHIROORZLQJZD\
ħ ZKHQ o o′ KROGV EXW o′ oGRHVQRWKROG WKHQ o LV VWULFWO\SUHIHUUHG
WR o′DQGZHZULWH o ≻ o′
ħ ZKHQERWK o o′DQG o′ oKROG WKHQ o LV LQGLɲHUHQWWR o′DQGZHZULWH
o ≈ o′
ħ ZKHQQHLWKHU o o′QRU o′ oKROG WKHQ o LV LQFRPSDUDEOHWR o′DQGZH
ZULWH o ∼ o′
7KXV ≻ LVDV\PPHWULF ≈ DQG ∼ DUHV\PPHWULF DQGLI LVUHÀH[LYH WKHQ ≈ LVUHÀH[LYHDQG ∼ LVLUUHÀH[LYH 7KHVHSURSHUWLHVOHDGWRRUGHULQJWKHVHW O RIRXWFRPHV 7KHVHDUHNQRZQDV SUHIHUHQFHVWUXFWXUHV DQGFRUUHVSRQGWRWKH RUGHUHGVHWVVHHQDERYH )RUWKHSXUSRVHVRIWKLVWKHVLV ZHUHFDOOWKHGLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQWKHQRWLRQRIWRWDOSDUWLDORUGHUVSUHRUGHUV )RUDFRPSOHWHOLVWRIWKH GLɱHUHQWSRVVLEOHVWUXFWXUHV ZHUHIHUWKHUHDGHUWRĪg]WUNHW DO Sī 7YLMLYLUJL:[Y\J[\YLZ :HKDYHVHHQKRZWKHSURSHUWLHVRIGLɱHUHQWSUHIHUĥ HQFHUHODWLRQVĪHJ ≻, ∼, ≈īFDQDɱHFWWKHRUGHULQJRIDVHWRIRXWFRPHV EDVHGRQ WKHFRQGLWLRQVWKH\VDWLVI\ $GGLQJWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWHDFKSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQ LVXQLTXHO\FKDUDFWHULVHGE\LWVSURSHUWLHV WKHFRQFHSWRI SUHIHUHQFHVWUXFWXUHV LV IRUPDOLVHGDVIROORZLQJ
+LÄUP[PVU 7YLMLYLUJL:[Y\J[\YL $ SUHIHUHQFHVWUXFWXUH LVDFROOHFWLRQRISUHIĥ HUHQFHUHODWLRQVGH¿QHGRQWKHVHW O VXFKWKDW ∀(o, o′)∈ O × O DWOHDVWRQH
DQGRQO\RQH UHODWLRQLVVDWLV¿HG
,QSDUWLFXODU XVLQJWKHWKUHHW\SHVRISUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQVZHGLVWLQJXLVKHG LQRXUFRQWH[W ZHVD\WKDW
*LYHQ WKHWULSOH (≻, ≈, ∼) LVD SUHIHUHQFHVWUXFWXUH LQGXFHGE\ DQGWKH SURSHUWLHVRI DUHWKRVHRILWVDVVRFLDWHGUHODWLRQVLQ (≻, ≈, ∼) :HGLVFHUQWKH IRXUIROORZLQJSUHIHUHQFHVWUXFWXUHV
+HQFHIRUWKZHVKDOORQO\XVHWKHWHUPµRXWFRPHV¶
;OLVYL[PJHS-V\UKH[PVUZ
WHY[PHSWYLVYKLY! LVUHÀH[LYHDQGWUDQVLWLYHDVWKHDVVRFLDWHG ≻ LVWUDQVLWLYH ≈LVUHÀH[LYHDQG ∼ LVQRWHPSW\
[V[HSWYLVYKLY! LVUHÀH[LYH WUDQVLWLYHDQGFRPSOHWHDVWKHDVVRFLDWHG ≻ LV WUDQVLWLYH ≈ LVUHÀH[LYHDQG ∼ LVHPSW\
WHY[PHSVYKLY! LVUHÀH[LYH WUDQVLWLYHDQGDQWLV\PPHWULFDVWKHDVVRFLDWHG ≻ LVWUDQVLWLYH ≈ LVUHÀH[LYHDQGFRPSRVHGRI (o, o) SDLUVRQO\ DQG ∼ LVQRW HPSW\
[V[HSVYKLY! LVUHÀH[LYH WUDQVLWLYH FRPSOHWHDQGDQWLV\PPHWULFDVWKHDVĥ VRFLDWHG ≻ LVWUDQVLWLYH ≈ LVUHÀH[LYHDQGFRPSRVHGRI (o, o) SDLUVRQO\ DQG ∼ LVHPSW\
1RWHWKDWLQWKHFDVHRIDWRWDOSUHRUGHU WKH ≈ UHODWLRQEHLQJUHÀH[LYH WUDQĥ VLWLYHDQGV\PPHWULF LWLVDQHTXLYDOHQFHUHODWLRQ /HW E1, ...,En EHWKHVHWRI
HTXLYDOHQFHFODVVHVLQGXFHGE\ ≈ :HKDYH ∀i = 1...n, Ei 6= ∅
E1⊎ · · · ⊎ En= O
∀o, o′ ∈ E
i, o ≈ o′
&RQVHTXHQWO\ ZHFDQVD\WKDWZHKDYHDQ RUGHUHGSDUWLWLRQ RQ O JLYHQWKHWRWDO SUHRUGHU ZULWWHQDV (E1, ...,En) LIDQGRQO\LIWKHIROORZLQJFRQGLWLRQKROGV
∀o, o′∈ O, o ≻ o′ ⇐⇒ o ∈ E
i, o′ ∈ EjZLWK i < j.
:KHQPDQLSXODWLQJSUHIHUHQFHVWUXFWXUHV ZHXVHWKHQRWLRQRI īXQĬGRPLĦ
QDWHGRXWFRPHV RU PD[LPDʃ\PLQLPDʃ\SUHIHUUHGRXWFRPHV DQGIRUPDOO\GH¿QHWKLV
DV
+LÄUP[PVU :L[VM4H_PTHSYLZW 4PUPTHSV\[JVTLZ /HW EHDSDUWLDOSUHRUGHU RYHUDVHWRIRXWFRPHV O 7KHVHWRIWKHPD[LPDOĪUHVS PLQLPDOīRXWFRPHV RI O′ ⊆ OZUW LVZULWWHQDV max(O′,)ĪUHVS min(O′,)īDQGGH¿QHGDV
{o|o ∈ O′,∄o′ ∈ O′,o′ ≻ o}ĪUHVS {o|o ∈ O′,∄o′ ∈ O′,o ≻ o′}ī
1RZWKDWZHKDYHH[SORUHGWKHPDWKHPDWLFDOPHDQVRIPRGHOOLQJSUHIHUĥ HQFHV ZHPRYHRQWRXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVWUXFWRIUHDVRQLQJZLWK WKHVHSUHIHUHQFHPRGHOV
9LHZVUPUN^P[O7YLMLYLUJLZ! 7YPUJPWSLZHUK4LJOHUPZTZ
/RRNLQJDWWKHSUHIHUHQFHPRGHOVDQGWKHSURSHUWLHVWKH\HQMR\ E\ZKDW PHFKDQLVPZRXOGRQHEHDEOHWRDSSO\WKHPWRDJLYHQVLWXDWLRQDQGPDQLSXODWH WKHPWRREWDLQVDWLVIDFWRU\UHVXOWV" ,IRQHORRNVDWWKHSUREOHPIURPDSXUHO\ :HXVHWKHQRWDWLRQ ⊎ WIRU GLVMRLQWXQLRQ WRH[SUHVVWKHXQLRQRIWZRGLVMRLQWVHWV3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^
WKHRUHWLFDOSKLORVRSKLFDOVWDQGSRLQW ZKDWSULQFLSOHVGRHVWKLVLQYROYH DQGDUH WKHUHGLVWLQFWPHFKDQLVPVWKDWRɱHUVROXWLRQVLQGLɱHUHQWVLWXDWLRQV" :HWHUP WKLVSUREOHPWKDWRIUHDVRQLQJZLWKSUHIHUHQFHV DQGORRNDWWKHVHSULQFLSOHV DQGPHFKDQLVPVLQWKHIROORZLQJSDUWRIWKLVVHFWLRQ )DFHGZLWKWKHSUREOHP RXU¿UVWLQWXLWLRQZRXOGEHWRIDOOEDFNWRWKHVWDEOH JURXQGRIPDQLSXODWLQJUHDOQXPEHUV DQGWREDVHRXUVHOYHVRQWKHVLPLODURUĥ GHULQJSURSHUWLHVHQMR\HGE\WKHVHWRIUHDOQXPEHUV 7KLVZDV LQGHHG WKH¿UVW UHFRXUVHIRUHFRQRPLVWVDQGGHFLVLRQWKHRULVWV DQGZHEHJLQE\GHVFULELQJWKH QXPHULFDOPHFKDQLVPVWKDWPDSWKHVHWRIRXWFRPHVWRWKHVHWRIUHDOQXPEHUV :HWKHQFRYHUDQRWKHUZD\RIWDFNOLQJWKHSUREOHPIURPWKHPRUHDEVWUDFW SKLORVRSKLFDOVLGH ZKLFKLVWRDQDO\VHWKHYHU\UHDVRQLQJSURFHVVDQGWRGH¿QH DIRUPDOV\VWHPLQZKLFKSUHIHUHQFHVFDQEHGHVFULEHGDQGPDQLSXODWHGIURPD VHWRIEDVLFD[LRPV IROORZLQJUHDVRQLQJSULQFLSOHVLQORJLF 7KHVHV\VWHPVDUH NQRZQDVSUHIHUHQFHORJLFV
5\TLYPJHS4LJOHUPZTZ 7KHQXPHULFDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRISUHIHUHQFHVWUXFWXUHV EHJDQLQFODVVLFDOGHFLVLRQWKHRU\DQGGHFLVLRQDQDO\VLV E\VSHFLI\LQJD XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ u : Ω → R Ī9RQ1HXPDQQDQG0RUJHQVWHUQ īZKLFKPDSVWKH VHWRIRXWFRPHVWRWKHVHWRIUHDOQXPEHUV )RUPDOO\ ZHKDYH
∀ω, ω′ ∈ Ω, ω ω′ ⇐⇒ u(ω) > u(ω′).
:HFDQVHHWKDWWKLVIXQFWLRQLVWKHUHIRUHRUGHUĥSUHVHUYLQJ %\YLUWXHRI WKLVSURSHUW\ UHDVRQLQJZLWKSUHIHUHQFHVFRXOGEHWUDQVODWHGDQGSHUIRUPHG QXPHULFDOO\WKURXJKPDWKHPDWLFDODQDO\VLV XVLQJWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDOWKHRU\ RIPHDVXUHPHQWĪ.UDQW]HW DO ī 7KLVOHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIVHYHUDO XWLOLW\WKHRULHV DVVXUYH\HGLQ )LVKEXUQ Īī UDQJLQJIURPWKHVLPSOHVWRUGHUĥ SUHVHUYLQJIXQFWLRQDVVKRZQDERYHWRPRUHVRSKLVWLFDWHGRQHVZKHUH IRUH[ĥ DPSOH RXWFRPHVFRXOGEHFKDUDFWHULVHGQRWMXVWE\QXPEHUVRUZHLJKWV EXW UDQJHVRIQXPEHUV LHLQWHUYDOV
3VNPJHS4LJOHUPZTZ )RUPDOLVLQJWKHQRWLRQRIUHDVRQLQJZLWKSUHIHUHQFHV RUGHYHORSLQJ SUHIHUHQFHORJLFV EHJDQLQSKLORVRSK\ LQLWLDWHGE\ +DOOGpQ Īī DQGFKDPSLRQHGE\WKHQRZVHPLQDOZRUNRI 9RQ:ULJKW Īī 7KHVH¿UVW SUHIHUHQFHORJLFVZHUHEDVHGRQFODVVLFDOORJLF DQGSURYLGHGDPHFKDQLVPWKDW LQWHUSUHWHGSUHIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQSURSRVLWLRQDOIRUPXODH
9RQ:ULJKW¶VV\VWHPLQWHUSUHWVSUHIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWZRORJLFDOIRUPXODH Φ DQG Ψ XVLQJWZRWHFKQLFDOGHYLFHV ĪīWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWRXWFRPHVVDWLVI\WKH IRUPXODH³HYHU\WKLQJHOVHEHLQJHTXDO´ NQRZQDVWKH FHWHULVSDULEXVSURYLVR DQGĪī WKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI Φ DQG Ψ PRUHSUHFLVHO\DV Φ∧¬Ψ DQG Ψ∧¬Φ UHVSHFWLYHO\ XVLQJWKHORJLFDOFRQQHFWLYHV ∧ DQG ¬ NQRZQDV 9RQ:ULJKW·VH[SDQVLRQSULQFLSOH ĪFI RQSDJH IRUDIXUWKHUGLVFXVVLRQī
;OLVYL[PJHS-V\UKH[PVUZ
6LPSO\SXW WKHSUHIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ Φ DQG Ψ LVLQWHUSUHWHGDV³HYHU\WKLQJ HOVHEHLQJHTXDO , SUHIHUDQRXWFRPHVDWLVI\LQJ Φ DQGQRWVDWLVI\LQJ Ψ WRDQ RXWFRPHVDWLVI\LQJ Ψ DQGQRWVDWLVI\LQJ Φ´ )RUH[DPSOH LQ³, SUHIHUFRɱHHWR WHD´ µFRɱHH¶DQGµWHD¶ZRXOGEHLQWHUSUHWHGDVORJLFDOIRUPXODHDQGWKHVWDWHPHQW ZRXOGWKHUHIRUHUHDG ³(YHU\WKLQJHOVHEHLQJHTXDO , SUHIHUDQRXWFRPHZKHUH , KDYHFRɱHHDQGQRWHDWRDQRXWFRPHZKHUH, KDYHWHDDQGQRFRɱHH´ 7KXVLQIRUPDOWHUPV WKHV\VWHPXVHVDUHDVRQLQJPHFKDQLVPWKDWWUDQVODWHV WKHSUHIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWZRORJLFDOIRUPXODH Φ DQG Ψ LQWRWKDWEHWZHHQWZR RXWFRPHV ω DQG ω′ZKHQ ω VDWLV¿HV Φ ∧ ¬Ψ ω′VDWLV¿HV Ψ ∧ ¬Φ
ω DQG ω′REH\WKH FHWHULVSDULEXVSURYLVR ZUW Φ ∧ ¬Ψ DQG Ψ ∧ ¬Φ
%XLOGLQJXSRQ 9RQ:ULJKW¶VV\VWHP 9DQ%HQWKHPHW DO ĪīH[WHQGDQG JHQHUDOLVHLWSURYLGLQJDFRPSOHWH D[LRPDWLVHGORJLFWKDWFDSWXUHVSUHIHUHQFHV ZLWKWKHFHWHULVSDULEXVSURYLVR
%LHQYHQXHW DO ĪīORRNDWWKHH[LVWLQJSUHIHUHQFHORJLFVIURPDFRPSXĥ WDWLRQDODQJOHDQGSURYLGHVHYHUDOFRPSOH[LW\UHVXOWV E\DGGUHVVLQJSUHIHUHQFH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQODQJXDJHVGHYHORSHGLQ$, UHVHDUFKĪZHORRNDWWKHVHLQWKHIROĥ ORZLQJVHFWLRQī )URPWKLVSHUVSHFWLYH WKH\SURYLGHDQHZORJLFPDNLQJDWUDGHĥ RɱEHWZHHQH[SUHVVLYLW\DQGFRPSOH[LW\
7KHVHPHFKDQLVPVIROORZWKHFODVVLFDOSURSHUW\RIORJLFNQRZQDVWKHSULQĥ FLSOHRI PRQRWRQLFLW\RIHQWDLOPHQW ³LIDIDFWLVGHULYHGRQWKHEDVLVRIFHUWDLQ SUHPLVHV WKHQQRDGGLWLRQDOSUHPLVHVFDQHYHULQYDOLGDWHWKLVIDFW´ %XWZKDW KDSSHQVLIDGGLWLRQDOSUHPLVHVFDQDFWXDOO\FKDQJHWKLVIDFW"
7RDQVZHUWKDWTXHVWLRQ OHWXVORRNDWWKHIROORZLQJH[DPSOHRI7ZHHW\WKH ELUG RIWHQWDNHQXSE\UHVHDUFKHUV ³LI7ZHHW\LVDELUG ZHFDQLQIHUWKDW7ZHHW\ ÀLHV KRZHYHU XSRQOHDUQLQJWKDW7ZHHW\LVDSHQJXLQZHUHWUDFWRXUFRQFOXVLRQ WKDW7ZHHW\ÀLHVĪZLWKRXWKDYLQJWRTXHVWLRQRXUDVVXPSWLRQWKDWPRVWELUGVÀ\ RUWKDW7ZHHW\LVDELUGī´ 7KLVIRUPRIUHDVRQLQJGRHVQRWHQMR\WKHSURSHUW\ RIPRQRWRQLFLW\ ,WLVNQRZQDVWKHSULQFLSOHRI QRQĦPRQRWRQLFUHDVRQLQJ
6KRKDP ĪDE īSURYLGHGDXQLI\LQJVHPDQWLFDOIUDPHZRUNZKLFK FDSWXUHVWKHLGHDEHKLQGDOOQRQĥPRQRWRQLFORJLFV 7KLVLVWKHQRWLRQRIVHOHFWĥ LQJDQGZRUNLQJZLWKWKHVXEVHWRIYDOLGPRGHOVRIDVHWRIIRUPXODH WKHUHE\ IDYRXULQJVRPHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRYHURWKHUV ,QKLVRZQZRUGVĬE Sĭ ³1RQĥPRQRWRQLFORJLFVDUHWKHUHVXOWRIDVVRFLDWLQJZLWKDVWDQGDUGORJLFDSUHIĥ HUHQFHUHODWLRQRQPRGHOV´ ,QYHVWLJDWLQJWKLVSULQFLSOHLQWKHFRQWH[WRIUHDVRQLQJZLWKSUHIHUHQFHVOHG WRDQLPSRUWDQWDGGLWLRQWRSUHIHUHQFHORJLFV\VWHPV 6LWXDWLRQVZKHUHSUHIHUĥ HQFHVZHUHXQFHUWDLQ RUQHHGHGWREHUHYLVHGEDVHGRQVXEVHTXHQWLQIRUPDWLRQ
3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^
ĪHJ GHIHDVLEOHSUHIHUHQFHVī FRXOGQRZEHLQFOXGHGDQGPDQDJHGE\GH¿QLQJ QHZHUPHFKDQLVPVEDVHGRQQRQĥPRQRWRQLFUHDVRQLQJ
)RUH[DPSOH OHWXVVXSSRVHWKDWLQFKRRVLQJDXQLYHUVLW\IRUIXUWKHUVWXGĥ LHV DQLQGLYLGXDOZRXOGSUHIHUD3DULVXQLYHUVLW\WRD/RQGRQXQLYHUVLW\H[FHSW LIWKHXQLYHUVLW\RɱHUVDQRSWLRQDOGUDPDFRXUVH +HUH 3DULVXQLYHUVLWLHVDUH SUHIHUUHGWR/RQGRQRQHVLQJHQHUDO EXWWKLVSUHIHUHQFHLVUHYHUVHGLQWKHVSHĥ FL¿FFDVHZKHUHWKHXQLYHUVLW\RɱHUVDQRSWLRQDOGUDPDFRXUVH 7KHVHNLQGV RISUHIHUHQFHVDUHNQRZQDV GHIHDVLEOHSUHIHUHQFHV 6LPXOWDQHRXVO\PDQDJLQJWKH VSHFL¿FUHYHUVHGSUHIHUHQFHZLWKWKHJHQHUDOSUHIHUHQFHUHTXLUHVWKHXVHRIQRQĥ PRQRWRQLFUHDVRQLQJDQGFDQEHGRQHE\DSSO\LQJWKHVRĥFDOOHGWKH VSHFLÀFLW\
SULQFLSOH DWWULEXWHGWR <DJHU Īī :HVKDOOLQYHVWLJDWHWKLVIXUWKHULQ&KDSWHU
-YVT;OLVY`[V7YHJ[PJL! 7YLMLYLUJL-VYTHSPZTZ
7KHFRQWHQWRIWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQKDVJLYHQDQLQGLFDWLRQWRWKHERG\RI ZRUNWKDWKDVJRQHEHKLQGIRUPDOLVLQJSUHIHUHQFHV DOORZLQJWKHPWREHH[ĥ SORLWHGQXPHULFDOO\DQGORJLFDOO\ )RUWKHIRUPHU WKHSUHIHUHQFHPRGHOVZH VDZKDYHDVRXQGWKHRUHWLFDOEDVH DQGWKHLUQXPHULFDOFRXQWHUSDUWV LH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV FDQEHGLUHFWO\XVHGIRUSUHIHUHQFHĥEDVHGUHDVRQLQJ 2QWKHPRUHDEVWUDFWVLGH SUHIHUHQFHORJLFVKDYHEHHQGH¿QHGDQGULJRUĥ RXVO\DQDO\VHGWRUHDVRQZLWKWKHSUHIHUHQFHPRGHOV :LWKWKLVOHYHORIVFUXWLQ\ XVHGLQWKHLUIRUPDOLVDWLRQ ZHFDQJHWEDFNWRRXURULJLQDOSRLQWRILQWHUHVW IRUSUHIHUHQFHVĦWKHLUXVHLQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJĦDQGH[SORUHWKHSRVVLELOLWLHVWKLV RSHQVXSIRUGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW 6HHQLQWKHVLPSOHVWZD\ PDNLQJDGHFLVLRQUHTXLUHVFRQVLGHULQJDOOSRVVLĥ EOHVFHQDULRVEHIRUHFKRRVLQJWKHPRUHIDYRXUDEOHRQHV 8VLQJSUHIHUHQFHV WKLV ERLOVGRZQWRRUGHULQJWKHGLɱHUHQWVFHQDULRVDFFRUGLQJWRRQH¶VSUHIHUHQFHV DQGWKHQFKRRVLQJIURPWKHEHWWHUUDQNHGRQHV 1RZ WKHRUHWLFDOUHVHDUFKRQ SUHIHUHQFHVSURYLGHVXVZLWKIXUWKHUGHWDLOVDERXWWKHWDVN ZHFDQVD\H[DFWO\ ZKDWSURSHUWLHVRXUSUHIHUHQFHRUGHUHQMR\VDQGZKDWNLQGRIUHDVRQLQJWRXVH IRULQIHUULQJRXUSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQV 7KXV LQSURYLGLQJGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWIRU DJHQWVĪZKHWKHUKXPDQRUDUWL¿FLDOī ZHFDQLQFRUSRUDWHWKLV¿QHJUDLQHGNQRZOĥ HGJHWRKHOSWKHPLQWKHLUWDVN 7KHUHLVRQO\RQHWLQ\KLWFK DOORIWKLVUHVWVRQD FRJQLWLYHĪRIDKXPDQDJHQWīDQGFRPSXWDWLRQDOĪRIDQDUWL¿FLDODJHQWīFDSDFLW\ WRGHVFULEHDSUHIHUHQFHPRGHO :LWKWKHH[SORGLQJTXDQWLWLHVRIGDWDDYDLODEOHDWRXU¿QJHUWLSV LWVHHPVWKLV LVDFRJQLWLYHDQGFRPSXWDWLRQDORYHUORDG )DFHGZLWKDODUJHQXPEHURIDOWHUQDĥ WLYHV RXUQDWXUDOZD\RIH[SUHVVLQJRXUSUHIHUHQFHVLVWRUHVRUWWRDQDEVWUDFWLRQ RIWKHSUREOHPE\GHVFULELQJSLHFHZLVHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWRXUSUHIHUHQFHV )RU H[DPSOH ³, OLNH/RQGRQPRUHWKDQ3DULV´LVDSDUWLDOGHVFULSWLRQWKDWFDQFRPH
7YLMLYLUJL-VYTHSPZTZ
LQKDQG\ZKHQDXVHULVIDFHGZLWKWKHWDVNRIFKRRVLQJ VD\ DXQLYHUVLW\IRU IXUWKHUVWXGLHV DQGLVFRQIXVHGDERXWWKHRQHWKH\ZRXOGOLNHWREHLQWKHPRVW 7KHVHTXHVWLRQVZHUHWDFNOHGE\UHVHDUFKHUVLQGHFLVLRQWKHRU\DQGOHGWRWKH GHYHORSPHQWRIWKH¿HOGRI TXDOLWDWLYHGHFLVLRQWKHRU\ $VDUJXHGE\ 'R\OHDQG 7KRPDVRQ Ī Sī
³7KHQHHGIRUDQDSSURDFKWRGHFLVLRQPDNLQJEDVHGRQSDUWLDOLQĥ IRUPDWLRQSURYLGHVDSRZHUIXOPRWLYDWLRQIRUDTXDOLWDWLYHGHFLVLRQ WKHRU\ &RPPRQH[SHULHQFHVKRZVSHRSOHRɱHULQJSDUWLDO DEVWUDFW JHQHULF WHQWDWLYH DQGXQFHUWDLQLQIRUPDWLRQLQH[SODLQLQJWKHLUGHĥ FLVLRQV 7KLVLQIRUPDWLRQLQFOXGHVTXDOLWDWLYHSUREDELOLW\Ī³,¶POLNHO\ WRQHHGIJD\HDUIRUUHWLUHPHQW´ī JHQHULFSUHIHUHQFHLQIRUPDĥ WLRQĪ³, SUHIHULQYHVWPHQWVLQFRPSDQLHVWKDWUHVSHFWWKHHQYLURQĥ PHQW´ī DQGJHQHULFJRDOVĪ³, ZDQWWRUHWLUH\RXQJHQRXJKWRHQMR\ LW´ī ,IZHZLVKDPRUHGLUHFWPRGHORIWKHZD\SHRSOHVHHPWRWKLQN DERXWGHFLVLRQV ZHQHHGWRGHDOZLWKVXFKLQIRUPDWLRQDQGQHHG PRGHOVRIGHOLEHUDWLYHUHDVRQLQJWKDWFDQPDNHXVHRILWLQIRUPXĥ ODWLQJDQGPDNLQJGHFLVLRQV´ 5HVHDUFKHUVLQ$, KDYHWDNHQXSWKHVHLVVXHVDQGKDYHGHYHORSHG FRPSDFW SUHIHUHQFHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQODQJXDJHV WRUHSUHVHQWVXFKSDUWLDOGHVFULSWLRQVRIXVHU
SUHIHUHQFHV 7KHSUHIHUHQFHVH[SUHVVHGLQVXFKODQJXDJHVDUHFDOOHG SUHIHUHQFH
VWDWHPHQWV DQGXVHGLɱHUHQWPHDQVRIFRPSOHWLRQWRFRPSXWHDSUHIHUHQFHUHODĥ WLRQĪWKHSUHIHUHQFHPRGHOī ,QWKLVZD\ ZHQRZKDYHDSUDFWLFDOO\PRUHVXLWDEOHZD\WRUHSUHVHQWWKH PDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHORISUHIHUHQFHV XVLQJVXFKODQJXDJHV RQHFDQPDNHWKH SDVVDJHIURPDVHWRISUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVWRDSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQWKDWLVFRPĥ SDFWO\UHSUHVHQWHGE\WKLVVHW 7RGD\WKHUHH[LVWVDZKROHJDPXWRIWKHVHODQJXDJHV ZKLFKKDYHEXLOWRQWKH VROLGIRXQGDWLRQDOZRUNRIWKHSDVW\HDUV 7KLVKDVOHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI GLVWLQFW SUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPV HDFKIRUPDOLVPEHLQJDODQJXDJHWRUHSUHVHQWFRPĥ SDFWSUHIHUHQFHV FRXSOHGZLWKLWVPHWKRGRIFRPSXWLQJDSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQ $OOSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVXVHWKHVDPHEDVLFIRUPDOODQJXDJHDQGIROORZD JHQHUDOVFKHPHWRGHVFULEHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVDQGWKHUHIRUHWKHSUHIHUHQFH PRGHOV :HEHJLQE\GHVFULELQJWKLVJHQHUDOVFKHPH WKHQORRNDWVRPHZHOOĥ NQRZQIRUPDOLVPV
;OL.LULYHS:JOLTL
7KHJHQHUDOVFKHPHRIFRPSDFWO\GHVFULELQJDSUHIHUHQFHPRGHOLVEDVHGRQ ĪīVHWWLQJWKHFRQWH[WLQZKLFKDSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQFDQEHGH¿QHG ĪīGHVFULEĥ LQJWKHPHDQVRIFRQVWUXFWLQJDSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWDQGĪīHVWDEOLVKLQJWKH EDVLVIRUKRZRXWFRPHVVDWLVI\WKHVHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^
;OL*VU[L_[ /HWXVFRQVLGHUWKHIROORZLQJFRPSRQHQWVRIDIRUPDOODQJXDJH ħ $ ¿QLWHVHW Σ RI YDULDEOHV ĪGHQRWHGE\XSSHUĥFDVHOHWWHUVīZKLFKGHVFULEH
WKHDWWULEXWHVRUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDQRXWFRPH
ħ $ ¿QLWHVHWFDOOHGWKH GRPDLQ Dom(X) IRUHDFKYDULDEOH X LQ Σ ĪGHQRWHG E\ORZHUĥFDVHOHWWHUVīZKLFKFRQWDLQVDOOWKHYDOXHVWKDWFDQEHDVVLJQHG WRWKDWYDULDEOH X ħ $Q RXWFRPH ω ZKLFKLVWKHUHVXOWRIDVVLJQLQJDYDOXHWRHDFKYDULDEOH X LQ Σ ħ 7KHVHWRI DʃRXWFRPHV Ω ĪLH WKHFDUWHVLDQSURGXFWRIDOOYDULDEOHVLQ Σī 7KHVHHVWDEOLVKWKHFRQWH[WIRUDOOSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPV $ SUHIHUHQFHUHODĥ WLRQLVGH¿QHGRQWKHVHW Ω DQGHYDOXDWHVWKHSDLUZLVHFRPSDULVRQRIRXWFRPHV ω, ω′ ∈ Ω EDVHGRQWKHLUVDWLVIDFWLRQRIWKHJLYHQVHWRISUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV 7YLMLYLUJL:[H[LTLU[*VUZ[Y\J[PVU /HW L EHDODQJXDJHEDVHGRQ Σ 0DWKĥ HPDWLFDOIRUPXODHĪQXPHULFDORUORJLFDOīEXLOWLQ L OHDGWRWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRI SUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV 7KXV IXQFWLRQVVXFKDVXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQVUHSUHVHQWQXĥ PHULFDO SUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV FRQVWUXFWHGLQ L
)RUORJLFDOSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV E\DEXVHRIODQJXDJH ZHFDQVD\WKDWIRU HDFKYDULDEOH X ∈ Σ ZHKDYHWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJORJLFDOSURSRVLWLRQ X 7KXV ORJLFDOIRUPXODHDUHEXLOWE\FRPELQLQJVXFKSURSRVLWLRQVXVLQJWKHVWDQGDUG ORJLFDOFRQQHFWRUV ∧ ∨ DQG ¬ DQGSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWVH[SUHVVWKHSUHIHUHQFH EHWZHHQWZRORJLFDOIRUPXODH p DQG q
:HVD\WKDWDJLYHQSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQW³p SUHIHUUHGWR q´FDQEHLQWHUĥ SUHWHGDVDSUHIHUHQFHRYHURXWFRPHV³ω SUHIHUUHGWR ω′´ZKHQ ω VDWLVÀHV p DQG
ω′VDWLVÀHV q ZKHUHWKHVDWLVIDFWLRQLVIRUPDOLVHGDVIROORZLQJ
+LÄUP[PVU 7YLMLYLUJL:H[PZMHJ[PVUPU L
ħ Mod(p) LVGH¿QHGDVWKHVHWRIRXWFRPHVWKDWPDNHWKHIRUPXOD p WUXH ĪDOVRFDOOHGWKHVHWRI pĥRXWFRPHVī
ħ ZHVD\WKDWDQRXWFRPH ω VDWLVÀHV p ZKHQZHKDYH ω ∈ Mod(p) ħ FRQYHUVHO\ ZHVD\WKDW ω GRHVQRWVDWLVI\ p ZKHQZHKDYH ω /∈ Mod(p)
*VTWHJ[7YLMLYLUJL3HUN\HNLZ
,QWKLVVHFWLRQ ZHYLVLWWKHODQJXDJHVWKDWIRUPSDUWRIVRPHZHOOĥNQRZQ SUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH 3VNPJHS3HUN\HNLZ $OOWKHFRPSDFWSUHIHUHQFHODQJXDJHVLQWKLVFDWHJRU\H[SUHVVSUHIHUHQFHV ZLWKWKHXVHRIORJLFDOIRUPXODH DQGRUGHUWKHRXWFRPHVE\VHOHFWLQJPD[LPDO RQHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUVDWLVIDFWLRQRIWKHVHIRUPXODH7YLMLYLUJL-VYTHSPZTZ 7KHVHODQJXDJHVIXUWKHUIDOOLQWRWZRVXEĥFDWHJRULHV ZHLJKWHGORJLFVDQG FRQGLWLRQDOORJLFV 7KHXVHRIGLɱHUHQWNLQGVRIORJLFVEULQJVDERXWYDULRXVVRĥ OXWLRQVWRWKHWDVNDWKDQG HDFKRQHVXLWHGWRDSDUWLFXODUNLQGRISUREOHP >LPNO[LK3VNPJZ /RJLFDOODQJXDJHVLQWKLVFDWHJRU\DOOSLYRWDURXQGRQHFRPĥ PRQHOHPHQW DZHLJKWWKDWFKDUDFWHULVHVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIDIRUPXOD 7KLV ZHLJKWFRXOGEHDVVRFLDWHGWR
ħ WKHDJJUHJDWHSHQDOW\RIHYHU\SUHIHUHQFH YLRODWHGDVLQ 3HQDOW\/RJLF
Ī+DGGDZ\DQG+DQNV ī
ħ WKHSHQDOW\RIYLRODWLQJSUHIHUHQFHVĪLH WKHKLJKHUWKHZHLJKW WKHJUHDWHU WKHSHQDOW\RIYLRODWLQJWKHSUHIHUHQFH PRUHLPSRUWDQWWKHSUHIHUHQFHī DVLQ 3RVVLELOLVWLF/RJLF Ī'XERLVHW DO ī RU
ħ WKHUHZDUGRIVDWLVI\LQJSUHIHUHQFHVĪLH WKHKLJKHUWKHZHLJKW WKHJUHDWHU WKHUHZDUGRIVDWLVI\LQJWKHSUHIHUHQFH PRUHLPSRUWDQWWKHSUHIHUHQFHī DVLQ *XDUDQWHHG3RVVLELOLVWLF/RJLF Ī%HQIHUKDWHW DO EīDQG 4XDOLWDWLYH
&KRLFH/RJLF Ī%UHZNDHW DO ī
7KHVHFKDUDFWHULVDWLRQVDUHLQGLFDWLYHRIWKH SULRULW\ DVVRFLDWHGZLWKHDFK SUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQW DQGRIWHQSURGXFHYDU\LQJSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQVEHFDXVH RIWKHGLɱHUHQWDVSHFWVWKH\HPSKDVLVH )RUDGHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHFXUUHQW ODQGVFDSHRIZHLJKHGORJLFVLQ$, OLWHUDWXUH ZHLQYLWHWKHUHDGHUWRFRQVXOWWKH GHGLFDWHGVSHFLDOLVVXHĪ'XERLVHW DO ī
*VUKP[PVUHS3VNPJZ ,QFRQWUDVWWRZHLJKWHGORJLFV FRQGLWLRQDOORJLFVDUHEDVHG RQDFRPSDUDWLYHHYDOXDWLRQRIIRUPXODH 0RUHH[SOLFLWO\ LQFRQGLWLRQDOORJĥ LFV SUHIHUHQFHVDUHGH¿QHGDV FRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHVWDWHPHQWV VXFKDV³, SUHIHU FRPHGLHVWRDFWLRQPRYLHV´ 7KHLQKHUHQWSUHIHUHQFHRI³FRPHGLHV´WR³DFWLRQ PRYLHV´LVLQWHUSUHWHGDVDSUHIHUHQFHRIWKHIRUP³FRPHGLHVDQGQRWDFWLRQ PRYLHV´RYHU³DFWLRQPRYLHVDQGQRWFRPHGLHV´ 7KLVGLVWLQFWLRQLVPDGHWRSUHĥ YHQWRFFXUUHQFHVZKHUHPRYLHVFRXOGEHERWK³FRPHGLHV´ DQG ³DFWLRQPRYLHV´ LQZKLFKFDVHWKHSUHIHUHQFHZRXOGPDNHQRVHQVH 7KLVLVNQRZQDVWKH YRQ :ULJKWH[SDQVLRQSULQFLSOH
/RJLFDOO\ WKHVHVWDWHPHQWVDUHUHSUHVHQWHGDV p > q ZKHUH p ∧ ¬q DQG q ∧ ¬p DUHWKHIRUPXODHWREHFRPSDUHG $QRXWFRPHVDWLV¿HV p > q LɱLW VDWLV¿HV p ∧ ¬q )ROORZLQJWKHFRQGLWLRQVRISUHIHUHQFHVDWLVIDFWLRQĪ'HI ī WKLVFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGDV p ∧ ¬qĦRXWFRPHVSUHIHUUHGWR q ∧ ¬pĦRXWFRPHV
7KXV WKHVHVWDWHPHQWVFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGDV Mod(p ∧ ¬q) SUHIHUUHGWR Mod(¬p ∧ q) 7UDQVODWLQJWKLVSUHIHUHQFHRYHUVHWVLQWRWKHSDLUZLVHFRPSDULĥ VRQRILQGLYLGXDORXWFRPHVSUHVHQWVVHYHUDOSRVVLELOLWLHV GHSHQGLQJRQKRZULJĥ RURXVO\HDFKRXWFRPHLQERWKVHWVLVUHTXLUHGWRVDWLVI\WKHSUHIHUHQFH 7DNLQJ XSRXUH[DPSOHRIFKRRVLQJDXQLYHUVLW\ ³, OLNH/RQGRQPRUHWKDQ3DULV´FRXOG UHSUHVHQWHGDVDORJLFDOIRUPXOD
3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^
HLWKHULPSRVHWKDW Dʃ /RQGRQXQLYHUVLWLHVDUHSUHIHUUHGWR Dʃ 3DULVXQLYHUVLWLHV RUORRVHQWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGDOORZH[FHSWLRQVWRWKHSUHIHUHQFH
'LɱHUHQWVHPDQWLFVKDYHEHHQSURSRVHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHWRDFFRXQWIRUWKLV VRPHRIZKLFKDUH
:[YVUN:LTHU[PJZ)LUMLYOH[HUK2HJP >PSZVU ZKHUHDQ\RXWFRPH VDWLVI\LQJ p > q LVSUHIHUUHGWRDQ\RXWFRPHVDWLVI\LQJ q > p
*L[LYPZ7HYPI\Z:LTHU[PJZ=VU>YPNO[ +V`SLHUK>LSSTHU /HUZZVU
ZKHUHDQ\RXWFRPHVDWLVI\LQJ p > q LVSUHIHUUHGWRDQ\RXWFRPHVDWLVĥ I\LQJ q > p LIWKHWZRRXWFRPHVKDYHWKHVDPHYDOXDWLRQRYHUYDULDEOHV QRWDSSHDULQJLQ p DQG q 6W[PTPZ[PJ:LTHU[PJZ7LHYS ZKHUHDQ\RQHRIWKHPD[LPDOĪVHH'HI RQSDJH īRXWFRPHVVDWLVI\LQJ p > q LVSUHIHUUHGWRDQ\RQHRIWKH PD[LPDORXWFRPHVVDWLVI\LQJ q > p
7LZZPTPZ[PJ:LTHU[PJZ)LUMLYOH[L[ HS I ZKHUHDQ\RQHRIWKHPLQLPDO ĪVHH 'HI RQSDJH īRXWFRPHVVDWLVI\LQJ p > q LVSUHIHUUHGWRDQ\RQH RIWKHPLQLPDORXWFRPHVVDWLVI\LQJ q > p 6WWVY[\UPZ[PJ:LTHU[PJZ=HUKLY;VYYLHUK>L`KLY[ ZKHUHDQ\RQHRIWKH PD[LPDORXWFRPHVVDWLVI\LQJ p > q LVSUHIHUUHGWRDQ\RQHRIWKHPLQLĥ PDORXWFRPHVVDWLVI\LQJ q > p :HQRZPRYHWRWKH¿QDOVHWRISUHIHUHQFHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQODQJXDJHV WKH JUDSKLFDOODQJXDJHV .YHWOPJHS3HUN\HNLZ 3UHIHUHQFHVDUHDOVRUHSUHVHQWHGJUDSKLFDOO\ VRDVWRKLJKOLJKWWKHLULQKHUHQW VWUXFWXUH PDLQO\LQWHUPVRIWKHLUGHSHQGHQFLHV )ROORZLQJDUHVRPHRIWKH ZHOOĥNQRZQODQJXDJHV
ħ *HQHUDOLVHG$GGLWLYH,QGHSHQGHQFH1HWZRUNVī*$,ĦQHWVĬ Ī*RQ]DOHVDQG3HUQ\ īDUHDYLVXDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIGHSHQGHQFLHVLQXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQV ħ &RQGLWLRQDO3UHIHUHQFH1HWZRUNVī&3ĦQHWVĬ Ī%RXWLOLHUHW DO īDUH
EDVHGRQFRQGLWLRQDOORJLF QDPHO\FHWHULVSDULEXVVHPDQWLFV DQGUHSUHĥ VHQWWKHGHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQYDULDEOHV
ħ &3ĦQHWVZLWK8WLOLWLHVī8&3ĦQHWVĬ Ī%RXWLOLHUHW DO īFRPELQHWKHWZR FRQFHSWVE\H[WHQGLQJ&3ĥQHWVZLWKXWLOLWLHV
ħ &3ĦQHWVZLWK7UDGHRɲVī7&3ĦQHWVĬ Ī%UDIPDQDQG'RPVKODN īH[WHQG &3ĥQHWVZLWKLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFHEHWZHHQYDULĥ DEOHV
ħ &RQGLWLRQDO,PSRUWDQFH1HWZRUNVī&,ĦQHWVĬ Ī%RXYHUHWHW DO īH[WHQG WKHQRWLRQRIWKHLPSRUWDQFHEHWZHHQYDULDEOHVWRWKDWEHWZHHQVHWVRI YDULDEOHV FHWHULVSDULEXV
7KLVLVDFRPPRQO\XVHGLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHVHPDQWLFV
7YLMLYLUJL-VYTHSPZTZ
7KHDOJRULWKPVWKDWWKHVHIRUPDOLVPVXVHWRFRPSXWHSUHIHUHQFHUHODWLRQV H[SORLWWKHLUJUDSKLFDOVWUXFWXUHXVLQJ LQGHSHQGHQFHĦEDVHGPHWKRGRORJ\ +HUHWKH JUDSKLFDOIUDPHZRUNLWVHOIFRQVWLWXWHVDQLQVWDQFHRIGLUHFWORJLFDOUHDVRQLQJ DERXWWKHSUHIHUHQFHH[SUHVVLRQ
)PWVSHY7YLMLYLUJLZ
:KHQKXPDQVUHDVRQLQDGHFLVLRQĥPDNLQJSURFHVV WKH\RIWHQKDYHDSUHGLVĥ SRVLWLRQWRVLPXOWDQHRXVO\FRQVLGHUSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHDɱHFWV 7KHH[SOLFLW KDQGOLQJRIWKHVHWZRRSSRVLQJHɱHFWVLVNQRZQDV ELSRODULW\ 7KHLQWHUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQZKDWZHFDOOSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHDUHTXLWHFRPĥ SOH[ DVDSWO\SXWE\ 'XERLVDQG3UDGH Ī Sī³7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOIRUPVRIELSRODULW\DFFRUGLQJWRWKHQDWXUH DQGWKHVWUHQJWKRIWKHOLQNEHWZHHQWKHSRVLWLYHDQGWKHQHJDWLYH DVSHFWV LQWKHPRVWFRQVWUDLQHGIRUP WKHSRVLWLYHLVMXVWWKHPLUĥ URULPDJHRIWKHQHJDWLYHDQGWKH\DUHPXWXDOO\H[FOXVLYH $ ORRVHU IRUPRIELSRODULW\FRQVLGHUVDSRVVLEOHFRH[LVWHQFHEHWZHHQSRVLĥ WLYHDQGQHJDWLYHHYDOXDWLRQV ZKLOHDGXDOLW\UHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHP LVPDLQWDLQHG ,QWKHORRVHVWIRUP WKHSRVLWLYHDQGWKHQHJDWLYH VLGHVH[SUHVVSLHFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQRIDGLɱHUHQWQDWXUH´ ,QGHFLVLRQĥPDNLQJ ELSRODULW\FRQFHUQVWKHRSSRVLWLRQEHWZHHQFRQVWUDLQWV DQGJRDOV :HVD\WKDW ħ QHJDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHV DUHFRQVWUDLQWVWKDWVWDWHZKLFKVROXWLRQVWRDSUREĥ OHPDUHXQIHDVLEOH DFFXPXODWLQJWKHVHOHDGVWRDGHFUHDVHLQSRVVLEOH VROXWLRQV ħ SRVLWLYHSUHIHUHQFHV VWDWHGHVLUHVJRDOVZKLFKVKRXOGEHVDWLV¿HGDVEHVW DVSRVVLEOHIRUVROXWLRQV DFFXPXODWLQJWKHVHOHDGVWRDQLQFUHDVHLQSRVĥ VLEOHVROXWLRQV 5HVHDUFKHUVKDYHORRNHGLQWRUHSUHVHQWLQJWKLVELSRODUDVSHFWXVLQJWKHODQĥ JXDJHVZHVDZLQWKLVVHFWLRQ DQGKDYHUHYHDOHGVRPHLQWHUHVWLQJUHVXOWVWKDW FRXOGEHXVHIXOLQLPSOHPHQWLQJPHWKRGVLQGHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUW :HQRZORRNDW WZRVXFKH[DPSOHVRIKRZWKLVFDQEHGRQHLQSDUWLFXODUIRUORJLFDOODQJXDJHV 0U>LPNO[LK3VNPJZ /HWXVFRQVLGHUWZRRIWKHZHLJKWHGORJLFVZHGHVFULEHG LQWKLVVHFWLRQ SRVVLELOLVWLFORJLF DQG JXDUDQWHHGSRVVLELOLVWLFORJLF 7KHIRUPHUXVHVDZHLJKWWRFKDUDFWHULVHWKHSHQDOW\RIYLRODWLQJSUHIHUHQFHV WKXVLQGXFLQJD WROHUDQFHGLVWULEXWLRQ RQRXWFRPHV DQGWKHODWWHUXVHVDZHLJKW WRFKDUDFWHULVHWKHUHZDUGRIVDWLVI\LQJSUHIHUHQFHV WKXVLQGXFLQJD VDWLVIDFWLRQ GLVWULEXWLRQ RQRXWFRPHV
%HQIHUKDWHW DO ĪEīUHSUHVHQWQHJDWLYHĪUHVS SRVLWLYHīSUHIHUHQFHVXVĥ LQJZHLJKWVZKLFKTXDQWLI\WKH UHMHFWLRQ ĪUHVS WKH PLQLPDOJXDUDQWHHGVDWLVIDFWLRQī
3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^
RIYLRODWHGĪUHVS VDWLV¿HGīSUHIHUHQFHIRUPXODH ,QWKLVZD\ WKH\VKRZWKDWD VHWRIQHJDWLYHĪUHVS SRVLWLYHīSUHIHUHQFHVFDQEHHQFRGHGXVLQJDSRVVLELOLVWLF ĪUHVS JXDUDQWHHGSRVVLELOLVWLFīORJLFEDVH WKHUHE\LQGXFLQJDWROHUDQFHĪUHVS VDWLVIDFWLRQīGLVWULEXWLRQ
$QDO\VLQJIXUWKHUZUWWKHDGGLWLRQRISUHIHUHQFHV WKHVHGLVWULEXWLRQVH[ĥ KLELWDGXDOQDWXUH UHYHDOLQJELSRODULW\LQZHLJKWHGORJLFV &RQVLGHULQJDGGLĥ WLRQDOSUHIHUHQFHVIRUDJLYHQVHWPD\RQO\ ħ GHFUHDVH WKHWROHUDQFHLQSRVVLELOLVWLFORJLF DQG ħ LQFUHDVH WKHVDWLVIDFWLRQLQJXDUDQWHHGSRVVLELOLVWLFORJLF 7KLVFRUURERUDWHVWKHUHVSHFWLYHGH¿QLWLRQVRIQHJDWLYHDQGSRVLWLYHSUHIĥ HUHQFHV 7KXV ELSRODULW\FDQEHFRQMRLQWO\H[SUHVVHGLQZHLJKWHGORJLFVXVLQJ SRVVLELOLVWLFORJLFDQGJXDUDQWHHGSRVVLELOLVWLFORJLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQV 0U*VUKP[PVUHS3VNPJZ .DFL ĪEīDGGUHVVHVWKHELSRODUQDWXUHRILQIRUPDĥ WLRQ DQGUHVROYHVLWLQWKHVSHFL¿FFDVHRIFRPSDUDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHUHSUHVHQWDĥ WLRQ 6KHVKRZVWKDWWKHQRQĥPRQRWRQLFSULQFLSOHRIPD[LPDODQGPLQLPDOVSHFLĥ ¿FLWLHVFDQEHXVHGWRGH¿QHDJJUHJDWRUIXQFWLRQVZKLFKDOORZLQWHUSUHWLQJFRPĥ SDUDWLYHVWDWHPHQWVTXDQWLWDWLYHO\ 0DNLQJDQDQDORJ\ZLWKWKHGLVWULEXWLRQVZH VDZIRUZHLJKWHGORJLFV VKHVKRZVKRZ RSWLPLVWLFīUHVS SHVVLPLVWLFĬVHPDQWLFV UHDĥ VRQLQWKHVDPHZD\DVQHJDWLYHĪUHVS SRVLWLYHīSUHIHUHQFHV 6KHWKHQSURYLGHVDVHWRISRVWXODWHVSURSRVHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHGHVFULELQJ WKHGLɱHUHQWVLWXDWLRQVWKDWRQHPD\HQFRXQWHU DQGDUHSUHVHQWDWLRQWKHRUHP ZKLFKFKDUDFWHULVHVVXEVHWVRIWKHVHSRVWXODWHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHVDWĥ LVIDFWLRQRIQHJDWLYHDQGSRVLWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQ 7KLVUHYHDOVWKHGXDOQDWXUHRI RSWLPLVWLFDQGSHVVLPLVWLFVHPDQWLFV DQGFRUURERUDWHVWKHLUDELOLW\WRPRGHO QHJDWLYHDQGSRVLWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQUHVSHFWLYHO\ :LWKWKLVEULHIRYHUYLHZRIWKHGLɱHUHQWH[LVWLQJSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPV ZHQRZDGGUHVVWKHWDVNRIDFTXLULQJSUHIHUHQFHV ,QWKHFRQWH[WRIGHFLVLRQ VXSSRUWV\VWHPV WKLVWDVNDOORZVWKHV\VWHPWRLQWHUSUHWXVHUSUHIHUHQFHV
7YLMLYLUJL(JX\PZP[PVU
%\ZD\RIWKHGLɱHUHQWODQJXDJHVVXUYH\HGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQ ZHVDZ KRZSUHIHUHQFHVFRXOGEHPRGHOOHGXVLQJFRPSDFWUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVWRSURYLGH SUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVWKDWHQDEOHGHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUWLQUHDOĥZRUOGDSSOLFDWLRQV )RUGHWDLOVDQGDQLQĥGHSWKFRPSDUDWLYHDQDO\VLV VHH .DFL Ī &Kī7YLMLYLUJL(JX\PZP[PVU
*LYHQDSDUWLFXODUGHFLVLRQĥPDNLQJVFHQDULR WKH¿QDOVWHSLQLPSOHPHQWLQJWKHVH IRUPDOLVPVLVDFTXLULQJWKHDJHQW¶VSUHIHUHQFHV
7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOZD\VLQZKLFKWKLVFDQEHDFKLHYHG DQGWZRGLVWLQFWEUDQFKHV KDYHHPHUJHGRYHUWKH\HDUV HDFKIRFXVVLQJRQDGLɱHUHQWDVSHFWRIDFTXLULQJ SUHIHUHQFHV 3UHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQ PHWKRGVDUHSURFHVVĥRULHQWHG ZKHUHE\XVHU LQWHUDFWLRQOHDGVWRWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRISUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPV ZKLOH SUHIHUHQFH
OHDUQLQJ LVGDWDĥRULHQWHG DQGDSSOLHVPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJWHFKQLTXHVRQDYDLODEOH
GDWDWRSUHGLFWDPRGHOIROORZLQJDVSHFL¿FSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVP
)RUH[DPSOH OHWXVVD\DVFKRROFRXQVHOORUPXVWSURYLGHXQLYHUVLW\UHFRPĥ PHQGDWLRQVIRUHDFKRIWKLV\HDU¶VRXWJRLQJVWXGHQWV ,IWKH\ZHUHWRXVHSUHIĥ HUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQ WKH\ZRXOGDGRSWDPHWKRGRITXHVWLRQLQJHDFKVWXGHQWWR HVWDEOLVKWKHLUSUHIHUHQFHV 2QWKHRWKHUKDQG PDNLQJSUHGLFWLRQVDERXWVWXĥ GHQWSUHIHUHQFHVXVLQJPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPVRQDYDLODEOHGDWDDERXWHDFK VWXGHQWĪHJ SURJUHVVUHSRUWV PDUNV FRXUVHVIROORZHG HWFī ZRXOGIDOOLQWRWKH FDWHJRU\RISUHIHUHQFHOHDUQLQJ
:HVKDOOVHHLQWKHFRXUVHRIWKLVVHFWLRQWKDWDGYDQFHVLQWKHVHWZR¿HOGV KDYHEHHQGHSWKĥ¿UVWUDWKHUWKDQEUHDWKĥ¿UVW ZKLFKKDVSURJUHVVLYHO\FDXVHGD ERWWOHQHFNLQSUHIHUHQFHDFTXLVLWLRQ ZKHQDEUHDNWKURXJKKDVEHHQPDGH VXEĥ VHTXHQWFRQWULEXWLRQVKDYHÀRZHGRYHUWKH\HDUV ZKLOHSUHYLRXVO\XQH[SORUHG GLUHFWLRQVUHPDLQXQWDSSHGIRUWKHLUPHULWV
7YLMLYLUJL3LHYUPUN
2QHRIWKHWZRPDLQPHWKRGVXVHGLQDUWL¿FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHIRUDFTXLULQJ SUHIHUHQFHVLV SUHIHUHQFHOHDUQLQJ ,WLVDVSHFLDOLVHGPHWKRGRIPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJ ZKHUHWKHV\VWHPOHDUQVIURPXVHUV¶SDVWSUHIHUHQFHVWRPDNHSUHGLFWLRQVDERXW XQVHHQXVHUSUHIHUHQFHV 5HFRPPHQGHUV\VWHPVLQRQOLQHVKRSSLQJZHEVLWHVRIĥ WHQHPSOR\VXFKWHFKQLTXHVIRUSHUVRQDOLVHGVKRSSLQJUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV 7KH ¿UVWFRPSUHKHQVLYHERRNFRYHULQJWKHHQWLUHWRSLF )UQNUDQ]DQG+OOHUPHLHU ĪīLQFOXGHV LQSDUWLFXODU DV\VWHPDWLFFDWHJRULVDWLRQDFFRUGLQJWROHDUQĥ LQJWDVNDQGOHDUQLQJWHFKQLTXH DQGIXUQLVKHVDXQL¿HGQRWDWLRQIRUSUHIHUHQFH OHDUQLQJ $PRQJVWWKHSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVYLVLWHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQ OHDUQLQJ PHWKRGVKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGIRUĪīXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQVDQGĪīSDLUZLVHSUHIHUHQFH UHODWLRQV ZKLFKLQYROYHFRQYHQWLRQDOPHWKRGVIURPPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJVXFKDV FODVVL¿FDWLRQDQGUHJUHVVLRQ DQGĪī&3ĥQHWVIURPH[DPSOHVXVLQJGLɱHUHQW PDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDSSURDFKHVDVFDQEHIRXQGLQWKHZRUNVRI /DQJDQG0HQJLQ Īī .RULFKHDQG=DQXWWLQL Īī /LXHW DO Īī UHIHUHQFHVFDQEHIRXQGLQ )UQNUDQ]DQG+OOHUPHLHU Īī
3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^ :HPHQWLRQYHU\IHZUHIHUHQFHVKHUH DQGRQO\WKRVHWKDWSHUWDLQWRWKHIRUĥ PDOLVPVYLVLWHGLQWKLVFKDSWHU 7KHLQWHUHVWHGUHDGHUZLOO¿QGWKHERRNPHQĥ WLRQHGKHUHWREHH[WUHPHO\LQVWUXFWLYH
7YLMLYLUJL,SPJP[H[PVU
7KHRWKHUSULPDU\PHWKRGLQSUHIHUHQFHDFTXLVLWLRQLV SUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQ ZKHUHSUHIHUHQFHVDUHWKHUHVXOWRILQWHUDFWLYHSURFHVVHVZLWKWKHXVHU 7KHVH FDQIXUWKHUEHFDWHJRULVHGXQGHUĪīQXPHULFDOXWLOLW\HOLFLWDWLRQDQGĪīTXDOLWDĥ WLYHSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQ <[PSP[`,SPJP[H[PVU 1XPHURXVPHWKRGVKDYHEHHQGHVLJQHGIRUWKLVNLQGRIHOLFĥ LWDWLRQ EDVHGXSRQTXHU\LQJWKHXVHUDERXWWKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFHRIHYHU\ SRVVLEOHRXWFRPHLQWHUPVRIHDFKGHFLVLRQFULWHULRQ 7KHHOLFLWDWLRQRIXWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQVIRUPXOWLĥDWWULEXWHDQGPXOWLĥFULWHULDVHWWLQJVJRHVEDFNWRWKHZRUNRI .HHQH\DQG5DLɱD ĪīDQGUHFHQWZRUNVKDYHEHHQVXUYH\HGE\ %UD]LXQDVDQG %RXWLOLHU Īī 9LDSSLDQL Īī $PRQJVWWKHSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVYLVLWHG LQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQ WKRVHWKDWKDYHEHHQZHOODGDSWHGWRWKLVW\SHRIHOLFLĥ WDWLRQDUHWKH*$, PRGHOVĪ*RQ]DOHVDQG3HUQ\ %UD]LXQDVDQG%RXWLOLHU ī7KHPDLQGLɷFXOW\WDFNOHGLQWKHVHPHWKRGVLVH[SRQHQWLDORXWFRPHVSDFHV GH¿QHGE\WKHSRVVLEOHYDOXHVRIRXWFRPHDWWULEXWHV 7KHVHRFFXUZKHQGHFLVLRQ SUREOHPVDUHGH¿QHGE\PXOWLSOHDWWULEXWHV 7DNLQJWKHH[DPSOHIURP %UD]LXQDV DQG%RXWLOLHU Īī LIZHFRQVLGHUDVRSKLVWLFDWHGÀLJKWVHOHFWLRQ WKHQSRVVLĥ EOHRXWFRPHVDUHGH¿QHGE\DWWULEXWHVVXFKDVWULSFRVW GHSDUWXUHWLPH UHWXUQ WLPH DLUOLQH HWF DQGWKHLUQXPEHULVWKHUHIRUHH[SRQHQWLDO 8WLOLW\HOLFLWDWLRQ PHWKRGVGLɱHULQWKHHOLFLWDWLRQVWUDWHJLHVWKH\GHYLVHDQGWKHRSWLPLVDWLRQRI RXWFRPHVWKH\SURYLGH ZKLFKUHVXOWLQUHGXFLQJWKHQXPEHURITXHULHVPDGHWR WKHXVHU 8\HSP[H[P]L,SPJP[H[PVU 7KHQHHGIRUTXDOLWDWLYHHOLFLWDWLRQRYHUWKHQXPHULFDO HOLFLWDWLRQRIDXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQFDQRIWHQEHVLPSOHUIRUWKHXVHULQYROYHGLQWKH HOLFLWDWLRQSURFHVV DQGUHDVRQVIRUWKLVFDQEHIRXQGLQWKHHDUO\GLVFXVVLRQV SURPRWLQJTXDOLWDWLYHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ $VUHPDUNHGE\ 'R\OHDQG7KRPDVRQ Īī ³7UDGLWLRQDOGHFLVLRQWKHRU\SURYLGHVDQDFFRXQWRIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDW LQSULQFLSOH VXɷFHVIRUPDNLQJDUDWLRQDOGHFLVLRQ ,QSUDFWLFH KRZHYHU WKH GHFLVLRQPDNHUPLJKWKDYHQHYHUFRQVLGHUHGWKHW\SHRIFKRLFHLQTXHVWLRQDQG VRPLJKWQRWKDSSHQWRSRVVHVVWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQ´
8VLQJWKLVVWUHDPRIWKRXJKW 'RPVKODN ĪīLQWURGXFHVDJHQHUDOVFKHPH IRUTXDOLWDWLYHSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQDVDPHDQVRIDGGUHVVLQJWKHERWWOHQHFN RISUHIHUHQFHDFTXLVLWLRQIRUWKHGLɱHUHQWSUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVDYDLODEOH DQG
7YLMLYLUJL(JX\PZP[PVU
VSHFL¿HVKRZLWFRXOGEHDSSOLHGWRWKH&3ĥQHWIRUPDOLVP *XHULQHW DO Īī SXVKWKLVDSSOLFDWLRQIXUWKHUDQGSURYLGHDOJRULWKPVIRUHOLFLWLQJXVHUSUHIHUĥ HQFHVWKDWFDQEHUHSUHVHQWHGDV&3ĥQHWV ,WLVLQWHUHVWLQJWRQRWHKHUHWKDW DOWKRXJKWKHPHWKRGGHVFULEHGLVDQHOLFLWDWLRQSURFHVV LWEDVHVLWVHOIRQWKH &3ĥQHWOHDUQLQJWHFKQLTXHVZHVDZLQ WRUH¿QHLWVUHVXOWV
:HDOVR¿QGRWKHULQWHUDFWLYHPHWKRGVWKDWIDOOLQWKLVFDWHJRU\LQWKHVXUĥ YH\VSURYLGHGE\ 3HLQWQHUHW DO Īī 3XHW DO Īī GHWDLOLQJWKHFRPSOH[ SURFHGXUHVXVHGLQHDFKRQH 7KHWRROVVXUYH\HGIRFXVRQDFTXLULQJSUHIHUHQFHV WKURXJKWKHXVHU¶VEHKDYLRXU KDQGOLQJFRQÀLFWLQJSUHIHUHQFHVDQGUHYLVLQJLQLĥ WLDOSUHIHUHQFHV 7KH\LQYROYHWHFKQLTXHVVXFKDV H[DPSOHFULWLTXLQJ ZKHUHWKH XVHUVDUHSURPSWHGWRFKRRVHWKHLUSUHIHUUHGRXWFRPHVIURPDVHOHFWLRQRIH[ĥ DPSOHVSUHVHQWHGWRWKHP 7KHVHPHWKRGVGLɱHUIURPHDFKRWKHULQWHUPVRIWKH FULWHULDXVHG ĪīIHDWXUHĥRULHQWHGV\VWHPVGHVFULEHSUHIHUHQFHVEDVHGRQSURGĥ XFWIHDWXUHV ZKLOHĪīQHHGVĥRULHQWHGV\VWHPVGHVFULEHSUHIHUHQFHVEDVHGRQWKH XVHUV¶SHUVRQDOQHHGV <ZLY)HZLK7YLMLYLUJL,SPJP[H[PVU ,QDOOWKHHOLFLWDWLRQPHWKRGVVXUYH\HGXQĥ WLOQRZ WKHXVHULVVROLFLWHGWRLPSURYHWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHIRUPDOLVPDGRSWHGE\ WKHV\VWHP 6LQFHWKHIRFXVLVRQWKHIRUPDOLVP WKLVPD\QRWQHFHVVDULO\FRUUHĥ VSRQGWRWKHXVHU¶VRZQPRGHORISUHIHUHQFHV 7KXVWKHLQIRUPDWLRQSURYLGHG E\WKHXVHULV LQWHUSUHWHG DVSUHIHUHQFHVE\WKHV\VWHP DVRSSRVHGWR H[SUHVVHG LQ DQDWXUDOZD\E\WKHXVHU )RULQVWDQFH WKLVLQIRUPDWLRQLVDQXPHULFDOLQSXWĪDV LQWKHFDVHRIQXPHULFDOHOLFLWDWLRQīRUDYLVXDOLQSXWĪH[DPSOHFULWLTXLQJīRUD VLPSOH\HVĥQRTXHU\UHVSRQVHDERXWSDLUZLVHDWWULEXWHFRPSDULVRQVĪIRU&3ĥQHW HOLFLWDWLRQī DQGIXUWKHULQIRUPDWLRQFDQEHUHTXLUHGWRUHVROYHWKHWUDGHĥRɱV WKDWPLJKWFURSXS 1RZ LIZHFRQVLGHUWKHHOLFLWDWLRQSUREOHPIURPWKHXVHU¶VSRLQWRIYLHZ WKHUHDUHWZRSULPDU\FRQVLGHUDWLRQVWKDWKDYHEHHQRYHUORRNHG ĪīWKHOLQJXLVĥ WLFH[SUHVVLRQRISUHIHUHQFHVDQGĪīWKHUROHRISUHIHUHQFHVLQWKHSV\FKRORJLFDO FRQVWUXFWRIGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ 7KHVHVKHGOLJKWRQWKHZD\KXPDQVPDNHWKHLU GHFLVLRQV ZKLFKGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWV\VWHPVFRXOGEHQH¿WIURP 7KHUHKDYHEHHQ FRQWULEXWLRQVZKLFKIRFXVRQWKHOLQJXLVWLFH[SUHVVLRQRISUHIHUHQFHVĪ&DGLOKDF HW DO 1XQHVHW DO īDQGWKRVHWKDWXVHKHXULVWLFVIURPSV\FKRORJ\ Ī1XQHVHW DO $OOHQHW DO ī
&DGLOKDFHW DO ĪīGHYHORSDGLDORJXHDQQRWDWLQJPHWKRGXVLQJVHJPHQWHG GLVFRXUVHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQWKHRU\ LGHQWLI\LQJSUHIHUHQFHVE\GLVFRYHULQJOLQJXLVĥ WLFWHUPVIRURXWFRPHVDQGWKHLUGHSHQGHQFLHV 7KHQDWXUDOODQJXDJHSURFHVVLQJ Ī1/3ī WHFKQLTXHVHPSOR\HGIRFXVRQH[WUDFWLQJRXWFRPHV DQGSUHIHUHQFHVDUH UHSUHVHQWHGDVDUHVXOWRIGHWHFWLQJKRZWKHVHH[WUDFWHGRXWFRPHVDUHRUGHUHG 1XQHVHW DO Īī $OOHQHW DO ĪīGHVFULEHWKHGHVLJQRIDQHQWLUHGHĥ FLVLRQVXSSRUWV\VWHP 7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKH\WDFNOHWKHSUREOHPRIDFTXLULQJ SUHIHUHQFHV PRGHOOLQJWKHPLQDVSHFL¿FIRUPDOLVPDQGUHDVRQLQJZLWKWKHPWR
3P[LYH[\YL9L]PL^ JHQHUDWHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV 7KLVEHLQJWKHWRSLFRIRXUQH[WVHFWLRQ ZHPHQĥ WLRQWKHPKHUHIRUWKHLUSHUWLQHQFHWRSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQDQGVKDOOGLVFXVV WKHPIXUWKHULQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ
7YLMLYLUJLZPU+LJPZPVU:\WWVY[
$VHYLGHQFHGE\WKHFRQWULEXWLRQVVWXGLHGLQWKLVFKDSWHU WKH¿HOGVRITXDOĥ LWDWLYHGHFLVLRQWKHRULHVDQGSUHIHUHQFHVLQ$, KDYHIUHTXHQWO\FURVVHGSDWKV DQGWKHUHLVDSDOSDEOHRSWLPLVPLQWKHLUFROOHFWLYHDLPRIFRQYHUJLQJDQGEUHDNĥ LQJJURXQGWRJHWKHU ,WZDVQRWVRORQJDJRWKDW 'RPVKODN ĪīPXVHGRQD ³FKLFNHQĥDQGĥHJJ´SDUDGR[LFDOGHDGORFNV\VWHPDQGVDLG³2QWKHRQHKDQG LWLVRQO\QDWXUDOWRDVVXPHWKDWUHDVRQLQJ DERXWXVHU¶VSUHIHUHQFHH[SUHVVLRQVLVXVHIXOLQPDQ\DSSOLFDWLYHGRĥ PDLQVĪHJ LQRQOLQHFDWDORJV\VWHPVī 2QWKHRWKHUKDQG WRRXU NQRZOHGJH QRDSSOLFDWLRQWKHVHGD\VDOORZVLWVXVHUVWRH[SUHVVDQ\ EXWWULYLDOĪHJ ³EDJĥRIĥZRUG´īSUHIHUHQFHH[SUHVVLRQV ,WVHHPV WKDWWKHUHDOĥZRUOGSOD\HUVZDLWIRUWKHUHVHDUFKFRPPXQLW\WRFRPH XSZLWKDFRQFUHWHVXJJHVWLRQRQKRZQDWXUDOĥODQJXDJHVW\OHSUHIHUĥ HQFHH[SUHVVLRQVVKRXOGEHWUHDWHG ZKLOHWKHUHVHDUFKFRPPXQLW\ ZDLWVIRUWKHUHDOĥZRUOGWRSURYLGHLWZLWKWKHGDWDHVVHQWLDOWRPDNH WKHIRUPHUGHFLVLRQ ,WLVFOHDUWKDWWKLVGHDGORFNVLWXDWLRQVKRXOG VRPHKRZEHUHVROYHG DQGZHEHOLHYHWKDWQRZWKLVVKRXOGEHDSULĥ PDU\JRDOIRUERWKVLGHV´ 6LQFHWKHQ WKHUHKDVEHHQDQH[SORVLRQRIDGYDQFHVRQWKHSUDFWLFDO WHFKQLĥ FDOIURQWLQYDULRXVGLVFLSOLQHVRI$, ZLWKWKHDGYHQWRI%LJ'DWDDQGWKHÀRXUĥ LVKLQJRIPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDQGQDWXUDOODQJXDJHSURFHVVLQJWHFKQLTXHV 7KHUH LVFOHDUO\µDQHZKRSH¶VLQFH'RPVKODN¶VPXVLQJV
)RUGHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUWLQSDUWLFXODU WKLVFDQEHVHHQWKURXJKWKHZRUNRI &KHQ DQG3X ZKRSURYLGHUHJXODUVXUYH\VDQGLQĥGHSWKDQDO\VLVRISUHIHUHQFHKDQGOLQJ PHWKRGV UHYHDOLQJSLWIDOOVDQGSURYLGLQJJXLGHOLQHVIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK 7KH\ EHJDQE\VXUYH\LQJH[LVWLQJPHWKRGVLQSUHIHUHQFHHOLFLWDWLRQLQ ĦWKHHDUO\ \HDUVRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWRISUHIHUHQFHIRUPDOLVPVLQ$,ĦDQGKDYHVLQFHVHHQ WKHJURZWKDQGGHYHORSPHQWRIUHDOĥLQGXVWU\DSSOLFDWLRQVVXFKDVSUHIHUHQFHĥ EDVHGUHFRPPHQGHUV\VWHPVLQ D E &RQWULEXWLRQVRISUHIHUHQFHVLQGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWFRQWLQXHWRÀRZLQ ZLWK DGYDQFHVLQĪīH[LVWLQJGHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUWV\VWHPVVXFKDVUHFRPPHQGHUV\VWHPV DQGĪīVWDQGĥDORQHGHFLVLRQĥVXSSRUWV\VWHPVZKLFKFRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\EHUHXVHG IRURWKHUSXUSRVHV 7KHODWWHUFDWHJRU\JHQHUDOO\FRPSULVHVRIFRQWULEXWLRQV WKDWKDYHPDGHDVLJQL¿FDQWEUHDNWKURXJK RSHQLQJXSIXUWKHUDYHQXHVIRULPĥ SOHPHQWDWLRQV :HQRZSUHVHQWDIHZDPRQJWKHVHZKLFKIRFXVLQSDUWLFXODURQ KDQGOLQJSUHIHUHQFHVDVVHHQLQWKLVFKDSWHU