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(1)

I “cambiamenti climatici ”

e la vulnerabilità

Il caso del Vietnam e del Benin

Pierre OZER

Department of Environmental Sciences and Management University of Liege, Arlon, Belgium

pozer@ulg.ac.be

Accademia Ligure di Scienze e Lettere

(2)

La vulnerabilità è l'esposizione, la conoscenza del rischio e la capacità di adattamento degli individui e / o gruppi collettivi e / o autorità (di sistema) allo stress sostentamento a causa degli effetti dei cambiamenti climatici e dei cambiamenti

socio-economici e ambientali consecutivi.

Esposizione: la natura e il grado in cui un sistema

sperimenta impatti dei cambiamenti climatici;

La conoscenza del rischio: il grado di conoscenza /

comprensione di come un sistema potrebbe essere influenzata da impatti dei cambiamenti climatici;

Capacità di adattamento: la capacità del sistema di far

fronte alle sollecitazioni indotte da impatti dei cambiamenti climatici.

(3)

1. Cambiamenti climatici : introduzione

2. « Cambiamenti climatici » : 3 casi di studio – SEMPRE: Poveri diventano più poveri

(4)

Global air temperature from 1850 to 2012

(5)

Global air temperature per decade from 1850 to 2010

(6)

Past and future consequences of global warming VERY LIKELY (90% to 99%) TRES PROBABLE (90% à 99%) LIKELY (66% to 90%) LIKELY (66% to 90%) VIRTUALLY CERTAIN (> 99%) VIRTUALLY CERTAIN (> 99%)

(7)
(8)

Global Carbon Project (GCP), 2012

Growth rate 1990-2012: +58%

(9)

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions vs IPCC scenarios

Emissions are heading to a 4.0-6.1ºC “likely” increase in temperature

(10)

Sea level rise during the 20th century

1850 1900 1950 2000

+ 18 cm / 20th century

R. K. Pachauri, A. Reisinger, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth

(11)

Estimates for 21st century sea level rise from semi-empirical models vs IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

(12)

Estimates for 21st century sea level rise from semi-empirical models vs IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Rahmstorf, 2010

IPCC AR5 2013

(13)
(14)

L

ES ZONES À HAUT RISQUE

(15)
(16)
(17)

1964 1997 1952

(18)

12-2003

(19)

12-2002

02-2003

(20)

Case study # [1]

VIETNAM

(21)

VIETNAM

• 3,200 km of shorelines

(22)

VIETNAM

• 3,200 km of shorelines • 2 deltas with extremely high vulnerability to sea level rise Red River Mekong

(23)

VIETNAM

• 3,200 km of shorelines • 2 deltas with extremely high vulnerability to sea level rise • Located on the highway of tropical cyclones Red River Mekong

(24)

VIETNAM

• 3,200 km of shorelines • 2 deltas with extremely high vulnerability to sea level rise • Located on the highway of tropical cyclones Red River Mekong Binh Thuan Province

(25)

THE STORY

THE FISHING VILLAGE

OF PHAN THIET

« DISAPPEARS »

‘‘‘VICTIM OF CLIMATE

CHANGE’’’

(26)
(27)

THE STORY

THE FISHING VILLAGE

OF PHAN THIET

« DISAPPEARS »

‘‘‘VICTIM OF CLIMATE

CHANGE’’’

(28)
(29)

FISHING VILLAGE

(30)

FISHING VILLAGE

(31)

FISHING VILLAGE

PHU HAI RESORT

(32)

FISHING VILLAGE

PHU HAI RESORT

65% WS

(33)
(34)

FISHING VILLAGE OF PHAN THIET 27 March 2006

(35)

0 m

FISHING VILLAGE OF PHAN THIET 10 May 2009

(36)

FISHING VILLAGE OF PHAN THIET February 2011

(37)
(38)
(39)
(40)

30 m

25 m

PHU HAI RESORT 27 March 2006

(41)

105 m

55 m

60 m

PHU HAI RESORT 10 May 2009

30 m

(42)

140 m

50 m

PHU HAI RESORT 26 April 2010

(43)

140 m

85 m

PHU HAI RESORT 20 May 2012

(44)

PHU HAI RESORT 20 May 2012

(45)
(46)
(47)
(48)
(49)
(50)
(51)
(52)

DISCUSSION

&

(53)

CLIMATE CHANGE ?

• First hotel, Coco beach, 1994 • Second hotel, Novotel, 1995 • Third hotel, Victoria, 1997 • …

• 2012, everything is constructed

ALL

are western hotels

(54)

STORY TELLING

BUT:

Increasing CO2 émissions:

2009  1,8 million Western tourists  traveling by air, from Europe (40%), Northern America (40%), Russia (10%) and Australia (10%)  emissions of about 8.2 106 tons of CO

2-eq.

That represents the CO2 emissions from fuel combustion of Benin + DR Congo + Togo for 2009 !!! (IEA, 2012).

[A] TO PROTECT THE TOURISM BUSINESS [B] TO RECEIVE MORE ATTENTION FROM THE

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ABOUT THE THREAT OF GLOBAL WARMING IN VIETNAM

(55)

500 m

(56)

500 m

(57)

NO

THE FISHING VILLAGE

OF PHAN THIET

WAS NOT VICTIM OF

CLIMATE CHANGE

(58)

YES

THE FISHING VILLAGE

OF PHAN THIET

WAS VICTIM OF

« CLIMATE CHANGE »:

POOR BECAME POORER

(59)

Case study # [2]

BENIN

(60)
(61)

In September 2010, Benin has been

affected by exceptional floods,

«the most disastrous of its history»,

due to climate change.

IMPACTS

680 000 people affected

150 000 homeless

425 schools affected

(62)

In September 2010, Benin has been

affected by exceptional floods,

«the most disastrous of its history»,

due to climate change.

IMPACTS

680 000 people affected

150 000 homeless

455 schools affected

(63)

In September 2010, Benin has been

affected by exceptional floods,

«the most disastrous of its history»,

due to climate change.

WHO SAYS THAT ?

Medias

NGOs

United Nations

(64)

In September 2010, Benin has been

affected by exceptional floods,

«the most disastrous of its history»,

due to climate change.

WHO PROVIDES THE DATA ?

The President (Yayi Boni)

The government

A special « commission »

(65)

1st October 2010

The Government of the Republic of Benin declares a state of

emergency in the country and appeals for international support 3 October 2010

OCHA’s team arrives in Cotonou 7 October 2010

« Rapport de situation OCHA #1 » 300 000 people affected.

16 October 2010

« Rapport de situation OCHA #5 » 358 621 people affected.

25 October 2010

« Rapport de situation OCHA #7 » 680 000 people affected, that is 10% of the last population census (6,769,914 inhabitants in 2002)

(66)
(67)

16 October 2010

Rapport de situation OCHA #5:

« Overview of the city of Cotonou and South of the country by helicopter for

the assessment of claims. It appears from this aerial view that the crisis was underestimated. In essence, the country is hit by flooding in nearly 2/3 in terms of area, over 76 500 km² » .

(68)

16 October 2010

Rapport de situation OCHA #5:

« Overview of the city of Cotonou and South of the country by helicopter for

the assessment of claims. It appears from this aerial view that the crisis was underestimated. In essence, the country is hit by flooding in nearly 2/3 in terms of area, over 76 500 km² » .

(69)

16 October 2010

Rapport de situation OCHA #5:

« Overview of the city of Cotonou and South of the country by helicopter for

the assessment of claims. It appears from this aerial view that the crisis was underestimated. In essence, the country is hit by flooding in nearly 2/3 in terms of area, over 76 500 km² » .

(70)

16 October 2010

Rapport de situation OCHA #5:

« Overview of the city of Cotonou and South of the country by helicopter for

the assessment of claims. It appears from this aerial view that the crisis was underestimated. In essence, the country is hit by flooding in nearly 2/3 in terms of area, over 76 500 km² » .

(71)

16 October 2010

Rapport de situation OCHA #5:

« Overview of the city of Cotonou and South of the country by helicopter for

the assessment of claims. It appears from this aerial view that the crisis was underestimated. In essence, the country is hit by flooding in nearly 2/3 in terms of area, over 76 500 km² » .

(72)

In September 2010, Benin has been

affected by exceptional floods,

«the most disastrous of its history»,

due to climate change.

WHO PROVIDES THE DATA ?

The President (Yayi Boni)

The government

A special « commission »

(73)

Powerful story telling for

election campaign purposes

(74)

IS BENIN AFFECTED BY

CLIMATE CHANGE ?

(75)

20 23 26 29 32 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 ANNEES T EMP ER A T U R E C )

T Max T Min T Moy

TEMPERATURES IN BENIN (SYNOP) 1960-2009

+1,1°C

+1,3°C

(76)

20 23 26 29 32 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 ANNEES T EMP ER A T U R E C )

T Max T Min T Moy

+1,1°C

+1,3°C

+1,5°C GLOBAL: ~+0,6°C

TEMPERATURES IN BENIN (SYNOP) 1960-2009

(77)

EXTREME TEMPERATURES IN BENIN (SYNOP) 1960-2010 0 5 10 15 20 25 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ANNEES N O M B R E D E J O U R S NUITS "FROIDES" JOURNEES "CHAUDES" 1960s – 2000s: /3 1960s – 2000s: x9

(78)

IS BENIN AFFECTED BY

CLIMATE CHANGE ?

(79)

RAINFALL ANOMALY INDEX IN THE OUEME WATERSHED (SYNOP), 1940-2010

(80)

KANDI 1183 1257 1411 1575 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PERIODE DE RETOUR PR EC IPI T A T IO N S A N N U EL L ES (m m ) . BOHICON 1837 1606 1391 1287 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PERIODE DE RETOUR P R E C IP IT A T IO N S A N N U E L L E S ( m m ) . 2010: 1043 mm [PR ~3 ans] 2010: 1264 mm [PR ~5 ans] Return period

(81)

PARAKOU 1852 1640 1441 1346 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PERIODE DE RETOUR P R E C IP IT A T IO N S A N N U E L L E S ( m m ) . SAVE 1840 1609 1394 1290 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PERIODE DE RETOUR PR EC IPI T A T IO N S A N N U EL L ES (m m ) 2010: 1300 mm [PR ~5 ans] 2010: 1121 mm [PR ~3 ans]

(82)

IS BENIN AFFECTED BY

CLIMATE CHANGE ?

(83)
(84)

IS BENIN AFFECTED BY

CLIMATE CHANGE ?

(85)
(86)

10 km Kpoto (1)

(87)

September 2010

(88)

REFUGEE CAMP : 800 people, < ½ ha

at 2 km from KPOTO, Commune of Zangnanado December 2010

(89)

M. Narcisse EDEGAN CV of KPOTO

(90)

Village of KPOTO December 2010

(91)

Village of KPOTO December 2010

(92)

Village of KPOTO December 2010

(93)

Strong resignation among the affected population

« Durant les deux premiers mois, nous avons fait l’objet de

visites incessantes de politiciens et autres mécènes pour des ‘dons’ très médiatisés. Puis, plus rien… »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1vD6AzU8cc

‘dons’ [donation] means 500,000 FCFA (762 EUR) for the

commune of Zagnanado (5940 affected people), that is 0.13 EUR per capita.

(94)

Local authorities response to prevent future floods

• Creation of a communal cell for flood early warning.

(95)

ANALYSE DES RISQUES HYDROCLIMATIQUES ET PRISE

DE DECISIONS

AUTORITES COMMUNALES

(Cellule Communale Permanente de Gestion de Crises d’Inondations)

ONGs intervenant en matière d’adaptation aux changements

climatique SAPEURS POMPIERS DST SAGES ET NOTABLES METEOROLOGUE COMMUNAUTAIRE

DIFFUSION DES DECISIONS PRISES

CHEFS VILLAGES CRIEURS PUBLIQUES ONGs, autres associations ELUS LOCAUX

REPRESENTANT LOCAL DE L’ASECNA

(96)

ANALYSE DES RISQUES HYDROCLIMATIQUES ET PRISE

DE DECISIONS

AUTORITES COMMUNALES

(Cellule Communale Permanente de Gestion de Crises d’Inondations)

ONGs intervenant en matière d’adaptation aux changements

climatique SAPEURS POMPIERS DST SAGES ET NOTABLES METEOROLOGUE COMMUNAUTAIRE

DIFFUSION DES DECISIONS PRISES

CHEFS VILLAGES CRIEURS PUBLIQUES ONGs, autres associations ELUS LOCAUX

REPRESENTANT LOCAL DE L’ASECNA

(97)

September 2012

• 100% of the

population of Kpoto left the refugee camp to go back to the

(98)

September 2012

• 100% of the

population of Kpoto left the refugee camp to go back to the

(99)

September 2012

• 100% of the

population of Kpoto left the refugee camp to go back to the village.

1939

1988

1998

2007

2010

2012

(100)

NO

BENIN

WAS NOT VICTIM OF

EXCEPTIONAL FLOODS DUE TO

CLIMATE CHANGE

(101)

YES

BENIN

WAS VICTIM OF

« CLIMATE CHANGE »

(but who cares?)

:

POOR BECAME POORER

(102)
(103)

Cotonou: Shorelines from the sky

2002

(104)

Cotonou: Shorelines from the sky

2002

(105)

Cotonou: Shorelines from the sky

2011

(106)

Cotonou: Shorelines from the sky

2011

(107)
(108)
(109)

Cotonou: Shorelines from the sky

2011

(110)
(111)

• We analyzed a stretch of 6 km from 2002 to 2011 at the eastern part of Cotonou.

• A total land area of ​​53 ha disappeared in the sea. • A total of 487 homes were destroyed by the

encroachment of the sea, out of which 426 informal

settlements and 61 villas.

• 1900 people were forced to leave because of the

advance of the sea: that is 316 people per linear km.

(112)
(113)
(114)
(115)
(116)

• The project to protect the coastline in supported by the White House’s Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) together with the Islamic Development Bank (IDB), Saudi, Kuwait and OPEC Funds.

• The MCA aims to adapt to climate change & to reduce poverty.

(117)

• The project to protect the coastline in supported by the White House’s Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) together with the Islamic Development Bank (IDB), Saudi, Kuwait and OPEC Funds.

• The MCA aims to adapt to climate change & to reduce poverty.

People are displaced by force without any compensation.

(118)

NO

COTONOU

WAS NOT VICTIM OF

SHORELINE EROSION DUE TO

CLIMATE CHANGE

(119)

YES

COTONOU

WAS VICTIM OF

« CLIMATE CHANGE »:

POOR BECAME POORER

(and disappeared)

(120)

Bonus extra case studies:

(121)
(122)
(123)
(124)

Bonus extra case studies:

(125)
(126)
(127)

15/06/2010

25/12/2012

1 km 1 km

(128)
(129)
(130)

THANK YOU

(131)

References (work in progress)

[1] Ozer, P. (2012). Is the fishing village of Phan Thiet victim of climate change?

Geo-Eco-Trop, 36, 29-38. http://hdl.handle.net/2268/157495

• [2] Ahouangan, MBD, Hountondji, YC, Thiry, A, de Longueville, F, Djaby, B, & Ozer,

P. (2013). Adaptation et résilience des populations rurales face aux catastrophes naturelles en Afrique subsaharienne. Cas des inondations de 2010 dans la commune de Zagnanado, Bénin. Eau, milieux, et aménagement : une recherche au service des

territoires (sous presse). Angers, France: Presses Universitaires d’Angers.

http://hdl.handle.net/2268/156391

• [3] Ozer, P, Hountondji, YC, de Longueville, F. (2013). Erosion littorale et migrations

forcées de réfugiés environnementaux. L'exemple de Cotonou, Bénin. In : 8th International conference (IAG) on Geomorphology: « Geomorphology and

sustainability », Paris, 27-31 August 2013, p. 588. http://hdl.handle.net/2268/155861

• [4] Makanzu, F, Moeyersons, J, Vandecasteele, I, Trefois, P, Ntombi, M, Ozer, P.

(2013). Les villes d’Afrique Centrale balafrées par l’érosion ravinante : inventaire cartographique et impact socio-économique à Kinshasa (RDC). In: Territoires périurbains : développement, enjeux et perspectives dans les pays du Sud,

Gembloux, Belgium, 19 décembre 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2268/156890

• [5] Ozer, P, Ould Sidi Cheikh, MA, Ozer A. (2013). Etalement urbain des villes en

Afrique subsaharienne et vulnérabilité croissante face au risque d’inondation : l’exemple de Nouakchott (Mauritanie). In: Territoires périurbains : développement, enjeux et perspectives dans les pays du Sud, Gembloux, Belgium, 19 décembre

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