Étude d'impacts des changements climatiques et socioéconomiques sur la ressource en eau, à l'échelle d'un bassin versant des Pyrénées Orientales : Le Tech

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Étude d’impacts des changements climatiques et

socioéconomiques sur la ressource en eau, à l’échelle

d’un bassin versant des Pyrénées Orientales : Le Tech

Daphney Dagneaux

To cite this version:

Daphney Dagneaux. Étude d’impacts des changements climatiques et socioéconomiques sur la

ressource en eau, à l’échelle d’un bassin versant des Pyrénées Orientales : Le Tech. Milieux et Change-ments globaux. 2010. �dumas-00748510�

1 1 1 1

MÉMOIRE

Présenté par M

elle

DAGNEAUX Daphney

Dans le cadre de la dominante d’approfondissement : IDEA (Ingénierie de

l’Environnement, Eau, Déchets et Aménagements durables)

Etude d’impacts des changements climatiques et

socio-économiques sur la ressource en eau, à l’échelle d’un bassin

versant des Pyrénées Orientales : Le Tech.

Pour l’obtention du :

DIPLÔME D’INGENIEUR d’AGROPARISTECH

Cursus ingénieur agronome

et du DIPLÔME D’AGRONOMIE APPROFONDIE

Stage effectué du 08 / 03 / 2010 au 03 / 09 / 2010

A : BRGM – SGR / LRO (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières,

Service Géologique Régional Languedoc-Roussillon) –

1039 rue de Pinville 34 000 M

ONTPELLIER

, FRANCE.

Enseignant responsable : Mr MICHELIN Joël Maître de stage : Mr CABALLERO Yvan

Soutenu le

:

Mercredi 22 Septembre 2010

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91=993%*9'9'9 9! !*9M9B2,9%*89 9'9#;9"9:899*!9"'9'9#!*!9'9%"',*29

@91 EAB1 9/B1 D1 E4B1 1 EA1 D1 1 EAC91 CA9E1 B1 F!1 FC9A1 61 FCBB1 1 FEE1D1DA1E1A1CB21:1'!EB1&1B9A1FAA1FCBC951E1C9AB1E11DA1 E1B11CD/1C9A1A9D9F161AAB1EBA1B1BCBA1E1DA1CB21F1A1!9A1 EAB1 B1 1 FBA/B1 AAAE1 73851 E1 C9AB1 E91 BBEB1 2CEE1 CA21 D1  CBDB1 D1 %R1 <-E1 >1 191 1 DA51 D1 DF!1 9A1 BDAB1 9AB1 1 DE1 FCEB1 <'!EB1 %>1 21 1 EA1 DE1 CD/1 EA1 AAB1 EAC991 CEB1 EB1 F1 DF!51 1 A1 CBA9A1 D1 FC9DBB1 !9A114A1D1EB1D1DA51E1EA1EB1E91BA1D1F1D44B9F1 1 91>99F9 9! !*9"9:9M9*!9 ! "9'9B2,299" "99"9  9*9:!*9'" 9*!9+!9* 9 9  %9 %"29 3#"'9 >589 !'9 &9 #**9 9 : 9   9 *9 %9 '" 9 *!9 +!9* 9  9  %9 9"9 3*"9 *9 '"9'9*!93F651*&DA529!9#"999*9 9*!9'++#9 9*9#%*9'9'9 9%*9 9"9:29 511AAC91D17(9/5192BC91)R1D12EB1D1DA1EB1C9A1FC9DB1FC141B1 1 9E1 K(DBC51 FC9AB1 "+R1 BBACB1 FC1 C(999A1 451 EB1 1 BCD1 000*00&1 :1 4A1 D1 1 8EB1 BA1 D1 DA1 EB1 91 C(991 A1 $EA1 E1 A1 E41 FC1 C(991:1'!EB1%1C9AB1E 1A1E91FBA91FC9FCBD9F19AB11BCD1CC1 FBA19AB1 1 FEE1 D1 DA1 E1 A1 CB21 E!9A1 99A1 A1 1 BCD1 CC1 1 4A1 D1 DC991 EB1 A1 C(991 : FBA1 9AB1 1 DA1 FEE1 D1 1 '!EB1 &1  E1 DC9F1 BC9A191BA1B114A1C(991D1CB2AC9519CA9A191BCD1D1C(991 A1$EA1E1 0 %00 000 %00 000 %00 "000 "%00 &000 &%00 %000  B. B 0 0 0  B  B 0 0 0  B" B 0 0   B) B 0 0   B. B 0 0   B  B 0 0   B" B 0 0   B) B 0 0   B. B 0 0   B  B 0 0   B" B 0 0 "  B) B 0 0 "  B. B 0 0 "  B  B 0 0 "  B" B 0 0 &  B) B 0 0 &  B. B 0 0 & 3  %  * 9'  9'  9  9 3% 0N 5 EE1FE EE1FCB2 0 00 00 "00 &00 %00 )00 700 0 %0 00 %0 00 B.B000 B.B00 B.B00 B.B00" B.B00& F + +   # 9'  9#  %  * 9'  9'  9  9 3% 0N 5 F  9  9 3% 0N 5 FC1C(14 FC14 1441FEE

.1

-202-2

)!*'! "9'9%"',*9

@914C11CD/1F1EB11BCD1000*00&511A19FB1D112DB1EB1E91BCD1D44B9A1 8A9A1 DC991 E1 9CE1 91 DCC91 1 D AAC91 D1 B/29A1 91 D$CB1 D1 FAA1 BCD1 D1 F!51A1DC9F1D1CA1D19AEBB11DA519CE191CE2C9112BA9A12DB1E191 ABFA11CD/1EB1E91EAB1BCD51<EE11CD/1BA1D1BBCDEB1D1DA19AEB>1 ?CE12C91ACEA1D1A1B1E91EAC91EB11BCD1..0*00051CEB1FCBB11BEAA1 CA9E1 E1 DA1 CB21 <'!EB1 )>1 5951 A1 1 9CE1 FCBC91 D1 DA1 9AEB1 61 D1 DA194E9F1B11B/29A519CE1CE2C91ACEA1D1A1AAB11EA1D11EAC91A1 2DB1919DBFA9A11CD/1EA1CEB1DFBB11(A/1AED1119 1 914993"%!!"9'9* ! 9'9%*! "9'9'9 9! !*9M9*!9 ! "9'9B2,9 9'9'9 9"9:899*!9 "'9'9:!*'! "991GG?6-???29 6!9*!9-99B* ! 9 !  &9'9*.!'&! "9'9'9 9%*9M9B2,9M9#*9"9:899*!9"'9'9:!*'! "99

Nash1 RVE1 RMSE1 Coefficient corrélation1

0.8071 0.6331 5.9761 0.8981

:1FBA/B1AAAE1FFE1EB11BCD1DE10B0.B..01E10B0.B0001<-E1>1C9AB9A1E11 CD/1BBCDEA1BA29A14D/9A11DA1CB219AB1..01A10005191E 1A1A1F1 EB11DA19AEB11

CB1 E1 F!51 1 FBA/B1 7381 CA9E1 A1 BDC9A1 EB1 <E1 BCF$1 D1 0>1 F1 A1 FEBE51D911EB1CC11DA1CB21EB11BCD1..0*0001C9A1F91AAB1E141E1 FE1D11BCD1000*00%1?CAB1CD/1D2BA1DC9F1B9AB1E912EB1CEB11FBA/B17381FFE1 EB1 1 BCD1 ..0*0001EBEB1 61 F1 CA9E1 CEB1 1 BCD1 D1 F!1 CEB1 A9AB1 D1 FCB9DB1F1BDC519CE12C91911FCEB1D1DA1CB21FEE1EB11BCD1.7* 00&1 <'!EB1 7>1 AA1 9(1 9CE1 1 B1 D1 FC9AAB1  CFFEBB9F1 D E91 BEAEB1 D1 9A1 EB1 1 FCEB51 21 61 BAB1 D1  991 ...*0001 ?CE1 91 CDC91 1 D FAC91 D1 FAA1 BEAEB1 < 94E9F1 D E91 9CE2E1 CA1 D1 B/29A51 1 CD4FAC91 D1 1 AAC91 $(DBCABE51 1 F$9!9A1 D1 B/B1 D1 EB1 C9A1 EA9A1 D $(CA$/1 E1 CEBB9A1 AAB1 61  CB!91 D1 FAA1 CD4FAC919CA1D911DA1CB2>12C91A9F1E1F9D9A1E11DA1CB21 29A11991...*0001C9A1!C9A1EBEB161FE1CB21B/1FAA1991BE9A11 BEAEB1 1 E1 DC9F1 E1 1 DA1 E1 B1 9CAB1 CD/1 C9A1 E1 BCF$1 <91 2EB1 2CEE1FEE1a1738>1D1DA1CB211 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 0 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 1 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 1 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 1 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 2 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 2 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 2 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 3 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 3 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 3 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 4 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 4 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 4 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 5 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 5 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 5 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 6 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 6 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 6 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 7 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 7 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 7 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 8 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 8 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 8 0 1 /0 1 /1 9 9 9 0 1 /0 5 /1 9 9 9 0 1 /0 9 /1 9 9 9 0 1 /0 1 /2 0 0 0 0 1 /0 5 /2 0 0 0 0 1 /0 9 /2 0 0 0 D é b it s ( m 3 /s )