1
Bio-Economy: Chances,
Challenges, and Perspective of
the System as a Whole
Andreas Pfennig
Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs)
Department of Chemical Engineering
Université de Liège
www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig
andreas.pfennig@uliege.be
presented at ECCE12, ECAB5, 15.-19.09.2019, Florence, Italy
agenda
2
motivation
world population
utilization of land-area
bio-economy: chances & challenges
consequences
Pfennig, A., 2019:
Sustainable Bio‐ or CO2 economy: Chances, Risks, and
Systems Perspective.
ChemBioEng Reviews, 6(3), 90-104.
https://doi.org/10.1002/cben.201900006
THE major driver
world population
7 600 000 000
food
2.8 kg/(cap d)
energy
21 000 kWh/(cap a)
materials
ca. 0.9 kg/(cap d)
fossil resources
5.6 kg/(cap d)
land area
agricultural: 7 000 m
2/cap
3
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
variant:
w
o
rl
d
p
o
p
u
la
ti
o
n
i
n
b
ill
io
n
year
low
medium
high
to
d
a
y
95% interval
future development of world population
source: United Nations
World Population Prospect 2019 Revision
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
7
8
9
10
11
12
w
o
rld
p
o
p
u
la
tio
n
2
0
5
0
in
b
illio
n
year of publication
high va
riant
me
dium
var
iant
low
va
ria
nt
11.62 billion in 2050
development of UN-WPP prediction for 2050
5
future development of world population
6
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
e
x
p
e
c
te
d
d
e
v
e
lo
p
m
e
n
t
to
d
a
y
w
o
rl
d
p
o
p
u
la
ti
o
n
i
n
b
ill
io
n
year
up
pe
r l
im
it
11.62 billion
in 2050
Club of Rome
IPCC SR1.5
EU
var
ian
t:
hig
h
medium
low
modelling approach
not an IAM (integrated assessment model)
based on simple balances:
influence of individual parameters directly visible
main drivers easy to realize
negative influence of too detailed models:
H. Hasse, 2003: Thermodynamics of Reactive Separations.
in: K. Sundmacher, A. Kienle (Eds):
Reactive Distillation. Status and Future Directions.
Wiley-VCH, Weinheim
7
world population × demand per person
required land area =
land-area specific productivity
1960
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
500
1000
1500
2000
overa
ll - se
ven m
ajor c
rops
ove
rall
ve
get
al p
rim
ary
pr
odu
cts
s
p
e
c
if
ic
p
ro
d
u
c
ti
v
it
y
i
n
k
c
a
l
/
(m
2a
)
year
se
ve
n m
ajo
r c
ro
ps
land-area specific agrigultural productivity
seven major crops:
• barley
• corn
• oil palm
• rice
• soybeans
• sugar cane
• wheat
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
a)
biomaterials combustion pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feedremaining forest
land-area: challenging, high pop. variant
9
land-area: challenging, medium pop. variant
10
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 biomaterials biofuels pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feed forests +land-area: challeng., high, vegetal
11
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000forests +
afforestation,
bio-energy, etc.
biomaterials combustion pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feedland-area: challeng., medium pop., vegetal
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 biomaterials biofuels pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feed
forests +
afforestation, bio-energy, etc.
additionally available land area
due to limiting population
growth and nutritional habits
options for bio-based chemicals 2050
13
gen feedstock products radius
km fi rs t g e n e ra ti o n sugar beet sugar or ethanol + CO2 10.4 ethanol 14.6 ethylene 18.7
sugar cane sugar or ethanol + CO2 7.5
ethanol 10.5
corn sugar or ethanol + CO2 13.4
ethanol 18.7
wheat sugar or ethanol + CO2 17.5
ethanol 24.5
oil palm plant oil 11.4
rape seed plant oil 30.1
s
e
c
o
n
d miscanthus/reeds sugar or ethanol + CO2 5.7
ethanol 7.9
wood sugar or ethanol + CO2 14.8
ethanol 20.7 th ir d corn straw sugar or ethanol + CO2 20.1 ethanol 28.2
wheat straw sugar or ethanol + CO2 23.2
ethanol 32.5
arable land
2050
0 500 1000 1500 area in m2 /capgoal
ranges:maximum national and world average productivity projected for 2050 color: ■technically realized ■partly pilot-plant Pfennig, A., 2019: ChemBioEng Reviews, 6(3), 90-104. https://doi.org/10.1002/cben.201900006
bio- vs. CO
2
-economy
utilize CO
2from point source
methane
1124 € / tC
methanol
844 € / tC
utilize CO
2from air
methane
1650 € / tC
methanol
1360 € / tC
starch from wheat
616 € / tC
