Cahier 2001-04
RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.
Département de sciences économiques
Université de Montréal
Faculté des arts et des sciences C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-Ville Montréal (Québec) H3C 3J7 Canada http://www.sceco.umontreal.ca SCECO-information@UMontreal.CA Téléphone : (514) 343-6539 Télécopieur : (514) 343-7221
Ce cahier a également été publié par le Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative (CIREQ) sous le numéro 04-2001.
This working paper was also published by the Center for Interuniversity Research in Quantitative Economics (CIREQ), under number 04-2001.
CAHIER 2001-04
INFLATION TARGETING UNDER ASYMMETRIC PREFERENCES*
Francisco J. RUGE-MURCIA1
1
Centre de recherche et développement en économique (C.R.D.E.) and Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal
February 2001
_______________
* This paper draws on preliminary research carried out jointly with Hashem Pesaran. The author is grateful to him for graciously allowing the use of that material here. A substantial part of this project was carried out while the author was visiting research fellow at the Bank of Spain in the spring of 2000. He has received helpful comments by Rui Castro, Larry Christiano, David Johnson, Athanasios Orphanides, and participants in seminars at Carleton University, the Bank of Spain, the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group (London, November 1999), and the Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society (New Orleans, January 2001). All data and programs employed in this project are available from the author upon request. Financial support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the Fonds pour la Formation de chercheurs et l'aide à la recherche is gratefully acknowledged.
RÉSUMÉ
Cet article développe et estime un modèle de la théorie des jeux qui a pour objet de cibler les taux d'inflation où les préférences de la banque centrale sont asymétriques autour du taux ciblé. Plus particulièrement, les déviations positives du taux ciblé peuvent avoir une plus grande ou une plus faible pondération dans la fonction de perte de la banque centrale que les déviations négatives. Il a été démontré que certains des résultats antérieurs, dérivés sous la présomption de la symétrie, ne sont pas robustes à la généralisation des préférences. Les estimations des paramètres de préférences pour les banques centrales du Canada, de la Suède et du Royaume-Uni sont différentes statistiquement de celles qui découlent de la fonction de perte quadratique utilisée habituellement. Les résultats économétriques sont robustes à différents modèles prévisionnels en ce qui a trait au taux de chômage, mais ne le sont pas face aux mesures d'inflation qui dépassent l'éventail ciblé.
Mots clés : cibles d'inflation, préférences asymétriques, crédibilité
ABSTRACT
This paper develops and estimates a game-theoretical model of inflation targeting where the central banker's preferences are asymmetric around the targeted rate. In particular, positive deviations from the target can be weighted more, or less, severely than negative ones in the central banker's loss function. It is shown that some of the previous results derived under the assumption of symmetry are not robust to the generalization of preferences. Estimates of the central banker's preference parameters for Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are statistically different from the ones implied by the commonly used quadratic loss function. Econometric results are robust to different forecasting models for the rate of unemployment but not to the use of measures of inflation broader than the one targeted.
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