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A Reduced Form Model of Default Spreads with Markov-Switching Macroeconomics Factors

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Table 1: Average treasury spot rates and corporate spreads 1987-2008
Table 2: Parameter estimates for the Markov-switching model a c 1 a c2 b c1 b c2 σ 1 c σ c2 Point estimate 0.00377 0.00068 0.38479 0.09514 0.00349 0.00549 Standard deviation 0.00057 0.00123 0.07820 0.18919 0.00022 0.00071 p-value 0.00 % 58.02 % 0.00 % 61.5
Table 5: Parameter estimates for the conditional default probabilities
Table 6: Correlations of the estimated default probability with consumption growth and inflation
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