Relative impacts of climate and landuse changes on
future flood damage along River Meuse in Wallonia
Visé Oupeye Herstal Liège Seraing St-Nicolas Flémalle Engis St-Georges Amay Huy Wanze Andenne Namur Profondeville Anhée Yvoir Dinant Hastière 0 5 10 Km HACH (ULg), 2011K
Damage evolution between 2009 and 2100 (M €) 10 - 20Largest contribution of new urbanized areas on damage increase by 2100 (%) 2009 2100 (min.) 2100 (max.) 455 300 100 200 6 - 10 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 65
A. Beckers
1,2, S. Detrembleur
1, B.J. Dewals
1, L. Gouverneur
1, S. Dujardin
3, P. Archambeau
1, S. Erpicum
1&
M. Pirotton
11 Hydraulics in environnmental and civil engineering (University of Liège, Belgium) 2 Fund for Research training in Industry and Agriculture (Belgium)
3 Research Centre on Territorial, Urban and Rural Sciences (University of Liège, Belgium)
1. Modelling the present day and future
(2100) 100-year flood
IPCC wet climate scenario
Regional climate model
Future precipitations
Hydrological model
Present day and 2100
discharges (+30%)
Hydraulic model
Flooded area + water depths
2. Modelling the evolution of residential areas
by 2100
3 urbanization scenarios families
(A) Current trend : full urbanization of the residential areas
available according to the walloonian land-use allocation plan
(B) Sustainable planning, regional development : concentration
of residential areas in cores (criteria of density, urban function diversity and proximity to employment)
(C) Sustainable planning, local development : concentration of
residential areas in cores, non consideration of the proximity of employment
3. Damage evolution between 2009 and 2100 for a 100-year flood
Multiplication of flood damage by 6 to 7 between 2009 and 2100,
wathever the urbanization scenario
-> Globaly, low influence of urbanization (11 to 19 %) but impact
locally greater than 40% in some municipalities (see map)
-> Inadequacy of the present day restrictions (flood hazard map)
in view of the increase of flooded areas by 2100
Namur
- Multiplication of damage by 6 to 7
- Mainly because of climate change
- Low influence of urbanization, except
locally
University of Liège (www.ulg.ac.be)
Department of Architecture, Geology, Environment and Constructions (ArGEnCo - www.argenco.ulg.ac.be) Sector of Solid, Fluid and Structure mechanics (MS2F)
