The role of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage in the global energy transition: long-term optimization on the industry sector

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The role of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage in

the global energy transition: long-term optimization on

the industry sector

Lucas Desport, Sandrine Selosse

To cite this version:

Lucas Desport, Sandrine Selosse. The role of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage in the global en-ergy transition: long-term optimization on the industry sector. ISDRS, Jul 2020, Budapest, Hungary. �hal-03022005�

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Lucas DESPORT, PhD Student & Sandrine SELOSSE, Research Fellow

MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, Centre for Applied Mathematics

TIAM-FR Model

CCUS technologies for industry

Results for the industry sector by 2100

Key issues and way further

• French version of the IEA-ETSAP TIMES Integrated Assessment Model

• Bottom-up linear programming model optimizing costs over decades

• Geographically integrated into 15 regions

• Commodities, processes and demand depicted in a Reference Energy System below

All commodities but CO

₂

CO

₂

flux

CCUS technologies

Process technologies

Primary reserves

Primary reserves processes

End-uses fuel generation

Demand sectors

CH

4

options

• Cost actualization

• Other mitigation pathways consideration

• CCU implementation

• Comparison with MIT top-down model

• Sensitivity analysis

• Results feasibility assessment

T

HE

ROLE

OF

C

ARBON

C

APTURE

U

TILIZATION

AND

S

TORAGE

IN

THE

GLOBAL

ENERGY

TRANSITION

:

LONG

-

TERM

OPTIMIZATION

ON

THE

INDUSTRY

SECTOR

• Minor disruptions in industrial processes between the BAU scenario and the mitigation scenarios, in where the use of coal is slightly replaced by heat importation.

• Not relying on CCUS technologies will require the electrification of industry. Thus, the carbon content of electricity is dramatically reduced as of 2070.

• Not relying on CCS will be more expensive.

• The model choices to invest in CCS mainly for the cement and chemical industries in the second half of the 21

th

_century.

• New technologies with better energy efficiencies are preferred against CCS technologies to reduce industrial emissions. Hydrogen is not chosen as an option.

• China, ex-USSR, Latin America and Western Europe are the regions that invest the most in CCS technologies.

Key findings

• 23% of global direct CO

₂

emissions

• 30% of global GHG emissions (direct and indirect)

• 37% of global final energy use

• High dependence on fossil fuels

• Energy intensive ‘hard-to-abate’ sector

• CCS can achieve industry decarbonation alongside with green

hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and energy efficiency

• CCU can reduce both fossil-based fuels and fossil feedstocks

Power generation

Industrial processes

Fuel generation

• Coal-fired + CCS

• CCGT + CCS

• Bioenergy + CCS

• Co-firing + CCS

• Process heat + CCS

• Process steam + CCS

• Industrial heat + CCS

• Industrial electricity + CCS

• Co-generation + CCS

• Diesel + CCS

• Heavy fuels + CCS

• Ethanol + CCS

• Hydrogen + CCS

• CCU for methanol

3 key sectors for CCUS options in TIAM-FR

• IEA-ETSAP data (2010)

• 25 years technology life duration

• 1706 GtCO

₂

storage capacity

• Business As Usual

• 2100 2°C/1.5°C climate targets

• With and without CCUS

Main assumptions and scenarios

8.5 Gt of direct CO

₂

emitted in 2017

2 _(IEA)

Cement

Iron & Steel

Chemicals

Pulp &

Paper

Non-ferrous

Others

Industrial CO

₂

emissions per sector

2

_{Including energy-related and process emissions}

0 5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Chemicals

Industrial electricity

Industrial heat

Cement

Pulp and Paper

Cumulative CCS new capacities per sector in a 1.5°C mitigation scenario [GW]

0 2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Africa

Australia

Canada

China

Eastern Europe

India

Japan

Latin America

Mexico

Middle East

Rest of Asia

South Korea

Ex-USSR

USA

Western Europe

Cumulated CCS investments in industry by region in a 1.5°C mitigation scenario [GW]

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Chemicals

Cement

Pulp & Paper

E

ner

gy

pr

oc

es

s

es

di

s

tr

ibuti

on

[%

]

Industrial investments temporal breakdown for the chemical, cement and pulp &

paper industry in a 1.5°C mitigation scenario

CCS technologies

High efficiency technologies

Basic technologies

0 50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

1,5_wCCS

2_wCCS

BAU

E

ner

gy

pr

oc

es

s

es

gener

ati

on

[P

J

]

Industrial energy generation processes temporal breakdown in mitigation scenarios and BAU scenario

Others*

Heat

Electricity

Natural gas

Coal

Bioenergy

CCS

0 50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

1 ,5

_

wCCS

1,

5_w

oC

C

S

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

E

ner

gy

pr

oduc

ti

on [P

J

]

Industrial energy production evolution with and without CCS technologies

Others*

Heat

Electricity

Natural gas

Coal

Bioenergy

CCS

1

2 Scenario

Label

Industrial CCS

investment [TW]

CO

₂

stored from

industrial processes [Gt]

Industrial discounted

cost [B€]

Business as usual

BAU

0.2

1 10,300,000

1.5°C mitigation with CCS

1.5_wCCS

62

142 11,100,000

1.5°C mitigation without

CCS

1.5_woCCS

0

0 12,300,000

2°C mitigation with CCS

2_wCCS

61

141 11,100,000

3

5

4

6 *others includes NGL, LPG, heavy fuels, distillates, blast furnace gas, asphalt, naphtha, coke and geothermal energy

Key facts about industry

How CCUS technologies can help reduce

industrial CO

₂

emissions?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

_{Including mainly food-processing, textile, mining, manufacturing and construction industries}