• Aucun résultat trouvé

Systematic credit risk: CDX index correlation and extreme dependence

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Partager "Systematic credit risk: CDX index correlation and extreme dependence"

Copied!
23
0
0

Texte intégral

(1)

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1012626

5)t|i4@|U hi_| +t!G #j W?_i Lhhi*@|L?

@?_ , |hi4i #iTi?_i?Ui

5L€@?i MLh@

N?iht|‚i _i @ht #@T?ic #+,+,Bc 6h@?Ui

!*@t `@}?ih

@tt@ N?iht|)c @tt@c Bih4@?)

5iT|i4Mih 2c 2ff.

,ALMK@BM

Ghshqghqfh lv dq lpsruwdqw lvvxh lq fuhglw ulvn sruwirolr prgholqj dqg sulflqj1 Zh glvfxvv d vwudljkwiruzdug frpprq idfwru prgho ri fuhglw ulvn ghshqghqfh/ zklfk lv prwlydwhg e| lqwhqvlw| prghov vxfk dv Gxh dqg Vlqjohwrq +4<<;,/ dprqj rwkhuv1 Lq wkh hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv/ zh vwxg| gh0 shqghqfh xqghu wkh ulvn0qhxwudo phdvxuh xvlqj fuhglw ghidxow vzds +FGV, vsuhdg gdwd ri oltxlg odujh0fds X1V1 reoljruv1 Wkh sur{| iru wkh frpprq idfwru lv wkh GM FG[1QD1LJ lqgh{1 Zh grfxphqw wkdw +l, wkh FG[ idf0 wru lv vljqlfdqw exw kdv orz h{sodqdwru| srzhu/ +ll, idfwru vhqvlwlylwlhv vkrz glvwlqfw wlph0ydu|lqj qdwxuh dqg wkdw +lll, v|vwhpdwlf fuhglw ulvn vkrzv dv|pphwulf h{wuhph idfwru ghshqghqfh/ zkhuh h{wuhph ghshqghqfh lv sur0 qrxqfhg iru xszdug FG[ pryhphqwv1 Wklv qglqj iurp dq HYW0frsxod dssurdfk lv zkdw lv suhglfwhg e| ydulrxv lqwhqvlw| prghov ri mrlqw ghidxowv1

Iruwkfrplqj lq= Zdjqhu Q1 +hg1, +533;,= Fuhglw Ulvn~Prghov/ Ghulydwlyhv dqg Pdqdjh0 phqw/ Ilqdqfldo Pdwkhpdwlfv Vhulhv Yro1 9/ Fkdspdq)Kdoo2FUF/ Erfd Udwrq/ Orqgrq/ Qhz \run1 Dfnqrzohgjhphqwv= Sduw ri wkh sdshu zdv zulwwhq zkloh wkh dxwkruv phw dw Ohleql} Xql0 yhuvlw|/ Kdqqryhu1 Hvwlpdwlrqv zhuh sduwo| rewdlqhg lq U/ D Odqjxdjh dqg Hqylurqphqw iru Vwdwlvwlfdo Frpsxwlqj/ Ylhqqd/ 53361 Fruuhvsrqglqj dxwkru= Qlnodv Zdjqhu/ Sdvvdx Xqlyhuvlw|/ Fkdlu lq Ilqdqfh dqg Ilqdqfldo Frqwuro/ <7365 Sdvvdx/ Jhupdq|1 H0pdlo= qlnodv1zdjqhuCxql0 sdvvdx1gh1

(2)

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1012626

 W?|hL_U|L?

#iTi?_i?Uic ?U*_?} ULhhi*@|L?c t @? 4TLh|@?| tti ? Uhi_| ht! TLh|uL*L 4L_i**?} @?_ ThU?} hi_| TLh|uL*L _ih@|it tU @t UL**@|ih@*3i_ _iM| LM* }@|L?t @?_ ?_i |h@?Uit U@? ?L| Mi ThUi_ |L| @ ThiUti U@h@U|ih3@|L? Lu _iTi?_i?Uic U @**Lt uLh @ _ih@|L? Lu TLh|uL*L *Ltt _t|hM|L?t 4L?} |i _iTi?_i?Ui @TThL@Uit |L Uhi_| ht! |@| @hi _LU4i?|i_ ? |i *|ih@|hic

ULT*@ @?_ u@U|Lh @TThL@Uit @hi |L _L4?@?| UL?UiT|t 6ht|c |i t|@|t|U@* ULT*@ @TThL@U @t t}}it|i_ uLh Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui 4L_i*?} uLh i @4T*i M) w Ebbb @**Lt uLh }i?ih@* hiThiti?|@|L?t Lu _iTi?_i?Uic Lgih?} @ }*) i  M*i 4i|L_c *i |i ULUi Lu @ t|@M*i ULT*@ u?U|L? Lu|i? tii4t UhU@*c tii @*tL i} *4 @?_ ihMiU! E2ff. ? i4ThU@* t|_) L? ULT*@ u?U|L?t ? 4L_i*?} _iu@*| _iTi?_i?Ui t M) #@t @?_ Bi?} E2ffe 5iUL?_c |i t|@|t|U@* u@U|Lh @TThL@U @t @TT*i_ ? Uhi_| ht! 4L_i*?} uLh i @4T*i M) V@tUi! EbH.c t @ t4T*€i_ _iTi?_i?Ui @TThL@U |@| @**Lt uLh T@ht4L?Lt @?_ hLMt| 4 T*i4i?|@|L?tc *i | 4@) tgih uhL4 Liht4T*€U@|L? `*i tiih@* @|Lht @h}i |@| u@U|Lh @TThL@Uit 4@) ?L| Mi @M*i |L 4@|U LMtihi_ _iTi?_i?Uic v E2ff  tLt |@| u@U|Lh @TThL@Uit |@| |@!i UL44L? ht! u@U|Lht Lu €h4tTiU€U Uhi_| ht!t ?|L @UUL?| 4@) ?L| Mi tMiU| |L |t tLh|UL4?}

W? |t UL?|hM|L? i @__hitt t)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht!c U t ThLM@M*) |i 4Lt| t|h!?} 4@?uit|@|L? Lu Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui 5)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht! @t ThiLt*) t|_i_ ? @ _gihi?| ti||?} i} M) i_hLt@ @?_ +L** EbbH `i _tUtt @ t|h@}|uLh@h_ UL44L? u@U|Lh 4L_i* Lu Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui Ai 4L_i* uL**Lt uhL4 |i U*@tt Lu ?|i?t|) 4L_i*t Lu Uhi_| ht!c U 4L_i* _iTi?_i?Ui ? |i _h?} ?|i?t|) ThLUitt At t 4L|@|i_ ? T@h| M) u@U|Lh @TThL@Uit @t ? #i @?_ 5?}*i|L? EbbHc v E2ff  @?_ @? _ih VLLh| E2ffec uLh i @4T*i

 ?4Mih Lu ThiLt t|_it _i@*| | |i Ti?L4i?L? Lu _iTi?_i?| _iu@*| ii?|t ? Uhi_| TLh|uL*Lt AL |t @4c t|hU|h@* Uhi_| ht! 4L_i*t |)TU@**) 4L_i* _iTi?_i?Ui ? *@|i?| ?_ih*)?} @tti| @*it ELu|i? ThL i_ M) i^|) @* it Lu |i LM*}Lht `*i wU@t EbbD tit t|LhU@* _@|@ Lti @@*@M*|) t *4|i_c ~L E2ff @?@*)tit _iTi?_i?Ui ? @ M@h@|i t|hU|h@* ih|L?

"Iru ryhuylhzv rq ghidxow ghshqghqfh prgholqj vhh iru h{dpsoh Gxh dqg Vlqjohwrq +5336,/

Fkdswhu 43/ dqg Vfko‚rjo +5335,1 Xvlqj pdunhw yduldeohv/ zh pd| glvwlqjxlvk +l, udwlqj dqg ghidxow fruuhodwlrqv/ +ll, vsuhdg fruuhodwlrqv/ +lll, dvvhw ru htxlw| fruuhodwlrqv dqg +ly, lpsolhg fruuhodwlrqv1 Vlqfh ghidxow hyhqwv duh uduh hyhqwv e| ghqlwlrq/ klvwrulfdo gdwd duh vsduvh1 Wkhuh0 iruh/ odwhqw fuhglw ulvn ghshqghqfh prgholqj dssurdfkhv grplqdwh1

(3)

4L_i* #i 5ih}?) @?_ +i?@*| E2ff2 t|_) ML| i^|)M@ti_ @?_ t|LhU@* _iu@*| ULhhi*@|L?t Ai) UL?U*_i |@| |ihi _Lit ?L| tii4 |L Mi @? LMLt *?! Mi|ii? |i |L #@tc 6hii_c Bi?} @?_ k@T@_@ E2ffS TL?| L| |@| ? |i ih|L?4L_i*c ULhhi*@|L? @?_ |4i@h@|L? ? t?}*i €h4 i^|) @*it @?_ i^|) L*@|*|it ** U@ti @h@|L? ? _iu@*| ThLM@M*|it UULh_?}*)c |i) €?_ |@| L?| _iu@*| ThLM@M*|it @hi hi*@|i_ |L @h)?} _iM| h@|Ltc M| @hi it TiU@**) _hi? M) @h)?} ULhhi*@|i_ L*@|*|it #@tc #ic k@T@_@ @?_ 5@|@ E2ff. ThL_i i_i?Ui |@| |i 4@Lh|) Lu L?| _iu@*| ht! t _i |L UL@h@|L? ? €h4tTiU€U _iu@*| ThLM@M*|it t |ih hit*|t t}}it|c LMtih@M*i 4@UhLi UL?L4U @h@M*it E?U*_?} i} @ Mt?itt U)U*i @h@M*i @?_ T@h|U*@h*) *@|i?| UL44L? @h@M*it T*@) @ 4@Lh hL*i ? i T*@??} ULhhi*@|i_ _iu@*|t

`i i4ThU@**) t|_) Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui ?_ih |i ht!?i|h@* 4i@thic i i UL?t_ih _ih@|it ThUit @?_ t|_) |ih _iTi?_i?Ui 4T*U@|L?t t TL?|i_ L| ? |i Thiu@Ui |L |t L*4ic |i 4@h!i| uLh Uhi_| _iu@*| t@T E#5 UL?|h@U|t @t }hL? i?Lh4Lt*) _h?} |i *@t| ULT*i Lu )i@ht Oi?Uic _@|@ uLh @ t|_) Lu Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui @i hiUi?|*) MiUL4i @@*@M*i |hL} |i _ih@|it 4@h!i|t  t|_) Lu Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui ?_ih |i ht!?i|h@* 4i@thi @TTi@ht hi*i@?| @t | hii@*t L Uhi_| ht! t ThUi_ @?_ |h@_i_ ? |i 4@h!i| @?_ | @*tL uLh4t |i M*_?} M*LU! uLh |i ht!?i|h@* _t|hM|L? Lu Uhi_| TLh|uL*Lt U tihi @t @? ?_ih*)?} uLh L|ih _ih@|it

`i t|_) |i _iTi?_i?Ui Mi|ii? ?_i @?_ UL4TL?i?| tThi@_ U@?}it ? Lh UL44L? u@U|Lh 4L_i* t?} *^_ ^L|it uhL4 |i N5 Uhi_| _iu@*| t@T 4@h!i| _h?} |i )i@ht 2ffe |L 2ffS W? @ €ht| t|iT i @h}i |@| #5 tThi@_ U@?}it tL _t|?U| |4itihit _)?@4Utc U tL*_ Mi |@!i? ?|L @UUL?| ? @_@?Ui Lu t|_)?} _iTi?_i?Ui t tU i |i? UL?t_ih u@U|Lh _iTi?_i?Ui Lu ?Thi _U|@M*i tThi@_ U@?}it `i €?_ |@| |i #j u@U|Lh t t}?€U@?| uLh |i ULti? t@4T*i Lu *@h}iU@T N5 LM*}Lht M| @t *L i T*@?@|Lh) TLih __|L?@**)c i ti_ *}| L? @ i@*) |4i@h)?} ?@|hi Lu u@U|Lh ti?t||it V@hLt ?|i? t|) 4L_i*t Lu L?| _iu@*|t Etii 5iU|L? 22e Thi_U| TLt|i 4TtQi *@h}i TLt|i U@?}itQ? Uhi_| tThi@_t UL?_|L?@* L? |i _iu@*| Lu L?i Lh tiih@* LM*}Lht W? Lh ti||?}c |t |h@?t*@|it ?|L TTih |@* i |hi4i u@U|Lh _iTi?_i?Uic @ ui@|hi U t LMtih@M*i uLh 4Lt| Lu Lh LM*}Lht

Ai hi4@?_ih Lu |t U@T|ih t Lh}@?3i_ @t uL**Lt 5iU|L? 2 Thiti?|t Lh 4i|L_L*L})c U ?U*_it |i _ih@|L? Lu |i u@U|Lh 4L_i*c |t 4T*U@|L?t @?_ |i 4i|L_t ti_ uLh ?uihi?Ui 5iU|L? L|*?it Lh i4ThU@* €?_?}t Ai UL?|hM|L? i?_t | @ Mhiu UL?U*tL? ? 5iU|L? e

(4)

2 i|L_L*L})

5|@h|?} | |i ?|i?t|) M@ti_ ELh hi_Ui_ uLh4 @TThL@U |L Uhi_| ht! 4L_ i*?}c |t tiU|L? L|*?it @ t|h@}|uLh@h_ i4ThU@* 4L_i* tTiU€U@|L? Lu UL4 4L? u@U|Lh t)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht! ?_ih @ ht!?i|h@* 4i@thi 6Lh @ UL4Thi i?ti t44@h) Lu |i 4L_i* M@U!}hL?_ @?_ uh|ih *|ih@|hi tii uLh i @4T*i #i @?_ 5?}*i|L? E2ff 

2 6@U|Lh W?|i?t|) TThL@U

W? Lh_ih |L 4L_i* _iu@*| ThLM@M*|it ?_ih ht!?i|h@*|)c ihi 6 _i?L|it |i i^@*i?| 4@h|?}@*i 4i@thic ?|i?t|) 4L_i*t ?|hL_Ui @ *@|i?| ?|i?t|) ThLUitt Ebc|f$|$A Lu |i | LM*}Lh N?_ih t|@?_@h_ @tt4T|L?tc | uL**Lt |@|

|i UL?_|L?@* ThLM@M*|) Lu _iu@*| Mi|ii? |4i | @?_ A t }i? M)

R6c|cA '   0|i T   ] A | bcr_r   E

 |)TU@* t4T*u)?} @tt4T|L? t |@| |i ht!?i|h@* i TiU|i_ *Ltt }i? _i u@*| h@|ic R*Ltt }i? _iu@*| ? tLh|c t UL?t|@?| @?_ _i?L|i_ M) , Ai?c |i

Uhi_| tThi@_ t t4T*) }i? @tG

7c| ' , bc| E2

W? Lh_ih |L ?|hL_Ui Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui Lu |i LM*}Lhtc i @TT*) @ UL44L? u@U|Lh tTiU€U@|L?  L?iu@U|Lh ?|i?t|) 4L_i* Lu Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Uic ? T@h|t hi*@|i_ i} |L #i @?_ 5?}*i|L? EbbHc v E2ff  @?_ @? _ih VLLh| E2ffec t }i? M)

bc|' b8c|n b"c|c E 

ihi b8c| @?_ b"c| @hi |L ?_iTi?_i?| ?|i?t|) ThLUittit tt}??} @?) |4i

@h@|L? ? |i tThi@_ E2 |L |i |4i@h)?} ?|i?t|) bc|L?*)c2 @ t4T*i 4L_i*

Lu |i Uhi_| tThi@_ _)?@4Ut uL**Lt 6 ?} 7cf @?_ Eb8cfc bcfc i U@? _i€?i

|i tThi@_ ThLUitt E7c|f$|$A @ |i i^@|L?

_7c| ' , _b8c|n , _b"c| Ee

#Wklv dvvxpswlrq fdq eh pdgh zlwkrxw orvv ri jhqhudolw| vlqfh wkh lqwhqvlw| surfhvv lv odwhqw1

(5)

6 ?} @*tL 78cfc i LM|@? uLh |i u@U|Lh tThi@_c _78c|' ,8 _b8c|c @?_ |ihiuLhi

_7c| ' ,*,8 _78c|n , _b"c| ED

`i !?L uhL4 @ MhL@_ ML_) Lu i4ThU@* *|ih@|hi |@| LMtih@M*i tThi@_ U@?}it @hi _hi? M) @hLt @__|L?@* u@U|Lht U @hi ?L| hi*@|i_ |L _iu@*| ht!( tii i} L**?#uhit?ic BL*_t|i? @?_ @h|? E2ff OLiihc i^@|L? ED uLh4t @ u?_@4i?|@* 4L_i*c U E tLt L tThi@_ U@?}it @hi _hi? M) U@?}it ? ?|i?t|)c E 4L_i*t _iu@*| _iTi?_i?Ui @ @ UL44L? u@U|Lh ? |i?t|) b8c|c @?_ €?@**) E U@? i@t*) Mi i |i?_i_ M) |@!?} L|ih Uhi_| tThi@_

_i|ih4?@?|t ?|L @UUL?| 22 6@U|Lh L_i* ?@*)tt

W? @ _tUhi|i|4i i4ThU@* ti||?}c ED |h@?t*@|it ?|L @ hi}hittL? 4L_i* Lu |i uLh4

{7c| ' @n K {78c|n "c|c | ' c c Ac ES

ihi |i t@* @tt4T|L?t @TT*) @?_ |i ??L@|L?t @hi ?_iTi?_i?| | _i?|U@* _t|hM|L?c "c|  Ef( j2

W? |t ti||?}c i tii uhL4 ED @?_ ES |@| t)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht! @t 4i@thi_ @ K hi*@|it |L ?__@* @?_ u@U|Lh *Ltt }i? _iu@*| , @?_ ,8c | K ' ,*,8

Oi?Uic t)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht! t hi*@|i_ |L |i | LM*}Lh<t hi*@|i i TiU|i_ *Ltt }i? _iu@*| Aihi @hi @hLt iUL?L4i|hU @TThL@Uit Lti @TT*U@|L? U@? Mi 4L|@|i_ M) |i t4T*i 4L_i* ? i^@|L? ES u ULhtic @ t|h@}|uLh@h_ @TT*U@|L? t @? Lh_?@h) *i@t| t^@hit it|4@|L? Lu |i 4L_i* W? |i uL**L?}c i _tUtt L i ti |i 4L_i* @t @ t|@h|?} TL?| uLh Lh @?@*)tt Lu UhLtt tiU|L?@* Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui

6L**L?} ESc Lh uLUt t L? |i _iTi?_i?Ui Mi|ii? U@?}it ? |i u@U|Lh @?_ |i t?}*i LM*}Lh tThi@_t OLiihc ?@h@|i @?@*)tt t @ ?iUitt@h) @?_ 4TLh|@?| t|iT ? }L?} Mi)L?_ @ t|@?_@h_ hi}hittL? @TT*U@|L? @?_ @*tL ?iUit t@h) uLh @ UhLtttiU|L?@* _iTi?_i?Ui t|_) h uL**L?} @?@*)tt UL?t_iht uLh @hi@tG

 ?@h@|i |4i tihit _iTi?_i?Ui ? tThi@_ U@?}it {7|c

 ?@h@|i i |hi4i Mi@Lh Lu tThi@_ U@?}it {7|c

 |4i@h)?} u@U|Lh ti?t||) Lu tThi@_ U@?}it {7c|c

(6)

 i |hi4i u@U|Lh _iTi?_i?Ui Lu tThi@_ U@?}it {7c|

22 A4i 5ihit #iTi?_i?Ui

t ?@h@|i tThi@_ U@?}it {7|@hi _hi? M) @hLt u@U|Lht ?U*_?} *^_|)

igiU|tc | @TTi@ht ThL4t?} |L @UUL?| uLh *^_|) igiU|t @| *i@t| |? @

*?i@h |4i tihit 4L_i* __|L?@**)c |ihi t i_i?Ui |@| ?L?*?i@h igiU|t Lu L*@|*|) U*t|ih?} @hi LMtih@M*i ? tThi@_ U@?}it @t i**( tii i} `@}?ihc OL}@? @?_ @||i? E2ffD W? Lh_ih |L @**L uLh *@}}i_ hitTL?tit |L ThiLt ??L@|L?tc i 4@) @tt4i @ 4L_i* Lu |i +EcuLh4

{7| ' > n ){7|3n L|3n L|c | ' c c A E.

6h|ih4Lhic |i ?Thi_U|@M*i tThi@_ U@?}itc L|c 4@) @i @ |4i@h)?} UL?

_|L?@* @h@?Ui @t }i? M) @ B+OEctTiU€U@|L? L| ' j|~|c

j2

| ' /fn /L|32 n /2j|32 c /f : fc /c /2  fc EH

U t M@ti_ L? }i? t|@h| h@?_L4 @h@M*it Ej2

fc ~f( tii i} L**iht*i i| @*

Ebb2 Ai ~|<t @hi t|@?_@h_3i_ _ h@?_L4 @h@M*it | UL44L? _t|hM|L?

u?U|L? 8~c ihi ~|  Ef(  Ai) hiThiti?| t|@?_@h_3i_ ?Thi_U|@M*i tThi@_

U@?}it

222 , |hi4i i@Lh

W? Lh_ih |L U@h@U|ih3i |i i |hi4i Mi@Lh Lu |i ?@h@|i tThi@_ U@?}it {7|c i 4@) @tt4i |@| |i _t|hM|L? u?U|L? 8~ Lu |i ??L@|L?t ~| ?

EH t u@||@*i_ , |hi4i @*i |iLh) E,VAc tii i} ,4MhiU|tc k*TTi*Mih} @?_ !LtU Ebb. Lh L*it E2ff tLt |@| |t t i^@*i?| |L @tt4?} |@| 8~ @t @hi|L*!i TTih @?_ *Lih |@*

  8~E5  SL53*1Lc SL : fc 1L : fc

8~E5  Su53*1uc Su : fc 1u : fc @t 5 $ 4 Eb

Ai T@h@4i|iht 1L @?_ 1u _i?L|i |i |@* ?_i Lu |i TTih |@* @?_ |i *Lih

|@*c hitTiU|i*)

$Qrwh wkdw oltxlglw| hhfwv w|slfdoo| uhodwh wr oltxlglw| glhuhqwldov ehwzhhq wkh wuhdvxu|

erqg/ wkh frusrudwh erqg dqg wkh fuhglw ghulydwlyhv pdunhw1

(7)

`i tTiUu) @hi|L |@* @TThL 4@|L?t uLh i Uittit Lu @ tUi?|*) } TLt|i |hitL*_ uLh i @4T*i @ |i Bi?ih@*3i_ @hi|L #t|hM|L? EB# LLt ?} |L |hitL*_t ? Lh U@tic ?@4i*) L : f @?_ u : fc i tTiUu) B#

_t|hM|L?t uLh @ h@?_L4 ?4Mih Lu TLt|i i Uittit Lu |i TTih |hitL*_c tL ' ~  L : fc @?_ |i *Lih |hitL*_c tu' ~  u : fc hitTiU|i*)G

  8~E5  L '   n 1L5  q L L 3*1L c qL : fc Ef 8~E5  u '    1u5  q u u 3*1u c qu : f E

 U@h@U|ih3@|L? Lu |i i |hi4i Mi@Lh Lu tThi@_ U@?}it @**Lt uLh |i 4L_i*?} Lu tLU@**i_ R}@TT?} ht! ELh 4T ht! ? Uhi_| tThi@_t At _i?L|it |i ht! Lu *@h}i t__i? tThi@_ U@?}itc uLh i @4T*i @ t__i? _i??} ? tThi@_t Lu 4Lhi |@? 2f M@tt TL?|t uLh @? ?_i Lh 4Lhi |@? ff M@tt TL?|t uLh @ t?}*i LM*}Lh( tii i} #i @?_ 5?}*i|L? E2ff c T  Hc @?_ *4 @?_ ihMiU! E2ff.c T f hiLt t|_it |@| @TT*) ,VA ? Uhi_| ht! 4L_i*?} ?U*_i L@ Ebbbc @4TMi** @?_ Ot4@? E2ff2 @?_ wU@tc k*@@tti?c 5Thi @?_ 5|h@i|4@?t E2ff

22  A4iV@h)?} 6@U|Lh 5i?t||)

h 4L_i* @TThL@U ? i^@|L? ES @tt4it uLh t4T*U|) |@| t)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht!c K ' ,*,8c t UL?t|@?| ?i i |i?tL? |L |i 4L_i* U 4@) ThLi t|@M*i

? 4L_i*?} Uhi_| ht!c t |L @**L uLh @ |4i@h)?} u@U|Lh ti?t||)c Kc| Lu |i

?Thi_U|@M*i tThi@_ U@?}it L|c

**L?} @}@? uLh |4i@h)?} 4@h}?@* tThi@_ U@?}i L*@|*|itc jc| @?_

j8c|c @t ? EHc 4*|@h@|i @|Lhi}hitti UL?_|L?@* i|ihLt!i_@t|U|) Lgiht @

UL?i?i?| 4L_i* @TThL@U `i ULLti |i _@}L?@* ,kktTiU€U@|L? M) ,?}*i @?_ khL?ih EbbD W? @ M@h@|i ti||?}c i U@? 4L_i* ?__@* @?_ u@U|Lh tThi@_ U@?}it t4*|@?iLt*)c ihi @ }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i t|@?_@h_ hi*@|L? uLh |i ULhhi*@|L? ULiUi?| L*_tc )i*_?}G

Kc|' 4c8c| jjc|

8c| E2

Oi?Uic |i |4i@h)?} UL?_|L?@* u@U|Lh ti?t||) Kc| t _i€?i_ M) |i |4i

@h)?} UL?_|L?@* ULhhi*@|L? @t i** @t |i UL?_|L?@* tThi@_ U@?}i L*@|*|it .

(8)

5TTLh|?} |i @MLi tTiU€U@|L?c |i i4ThU@* Uhi_| ht! *|ih@|hi €?_t i _i?Ui Lu |4i@h)?} Uhi_| ht! ULhhi*@|L?t 5ii uLh i @4T*i |i t|_it M) ~L E2ffc _i 5ih}?) @?_ +i?@*| E2ff2 @?_ #@tc 6hii_c Bi?} @?_ k@T@_@ E2ffS

22e , |hi4i 6@U|Lh #iTi?_i?Ui

W? Lh_ih |L U@h@U|ih3i |i L?| i |hi4i Mi@Lh Lu |i tThi@_ U@?}it {7|c

@?_ {7|c8c i 4@) @tt4i |@| |i i |hi4i Mi@Lh Lu |i L?| _t|hM|L?

u?U|L? 8 Lu |i ??L@|L?t ~|c @?_ ~|c8 U@? Mi U@h@U|ih3i_ @ |i U!@?_t

,VAULT*@ @TThL@U( tii i} L*it E2ffe

Ai U!@?_t hiThiti?|@|L? |iLhi4 tLt |@| @ TL|i?|@* *4|?} _t|hM |L? Mc t@|tu)?} |i hi^hi_ 4@ t|@M*|) UL?_|L?c @t |L Mi Lu |i uLh4

ME5c 58 ' i T     5 n  58    5 5n 58  c 5 : Lcc 58 : Lc8 E 

Oihic M @t @ ?^i ,VAULT*@ U t _i€?i_ @ |i _iTi?_i?Ui u?U|L? E G dfc o :$ dfc oc ihi  ' 5*E5n58 E U@h@U|ih3it M@h@|i i |hi4i

_iTi?_i?Ui Wu E ' c |i |@*t Lu |i L?| _t|hM|L? @hi ?_iTi?_i?|c ihi@t E ' 4@ Ec    ?_U@|it TihuiU| _iTi?_i?Ui `i ULLti |hii _gihi?| T@h@4i|hU 4L_i*t uLh E  t|@?_@h_ 4L_i* t |i t)44i|hU *L}t|U 4L_i*c U hi*@|it |L |i B4Mi* ULT*@c ihi

kE ' iE  *kn *kjkc Ee

| f k   Oihic ?_iTi?_i?Ui t hi@Ui_ i? k '  @?_ TihuiU| _iTi? _i?Ui i? k $ f  }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i B4Mi* ULT*@ @**Lt uLh @t)44i|hU _iTi?_i?Ui |

kcwcw2E ' E  wE   n E  w2 n iE  *kw*kn *kw*k2 jkc ED

ihi f k   @?_ w  fc w2   N?_ih |t @t)44i|hU 4L_i*c t)44i|h)

t LM|@?i_ ?_ih w ' w2 '  @?_ ?_iTi?_i?Ui t hi@Ui_ i? i|ih k ' c

w ' f Lh w2 ' f Ai @t)44i|hU ?i}@|i *L}t|U 4L_i* _i€?it |i B@*@4MLt

aLi ULT*@ @?_ t }i? M)

kcwcw2E '   idE  *wo3kn d*w2o

!k

j3*kc ES

%Iru dssolfdwlrqv ri wkh Slfndqgv HYW0frsxod dssurdfk lq qdqfh vhh h1j1 Orqjlq dqg Vroqln

+5334, dqg Pduvk dqg Zdjqhu +5333,1

(9)

| k : f @?_ w : fc w2   W?_iTi?_i?Ui t hi@Ui_ i? i|ih k $ f Lh

w $ fc w2 $ f

6Lh i@U Lu |i @MLi U@?__@|i _iTi?_i?Ui u?U|L?tc | t TLttM*i |L _ihi |i *4|?} UL?_|L?@* i Uii_@?Ui ThLM@M*|it

L ' *4

L<"E~ : Lm~8 : Lc

u ' *4

u<"E~ : um  ~8 : L

Aiti *4|?} UL?_|L?@* ThLM@M*|itc L @?_ uc ?_U@|i |i Thiti?Ui Lu TTih

@?_ *Lih u@U|Lh |@* _iTi?_i?Uic hitTiU|i*) 6Lh i @4T*ic i 4@) ?|ihThi| L

@t |i ThLM@M*|) Lu @ t}?€U@?| 4T ? |i tThi@_ Lu |i | LM*}Lh }i? |@| |i u@U|Lh tThi@_ tLt @ t}?€U@?| 4Tc ihi ML| 4T t3it i Uii_ @ ih) } |hitL*_

? |i |iLh) t_i @hLt 4L_i*tc ?U*_?} i} #@t @?_ wL E2ffc a@h hL @?_ v E2ffc 5UL?MUih @?_ 5UMih| E2fff @?_ #ic ,U!?ihc OLhi* @?_ 5@|@ E2ffSc Thi_U| |@| |i _iu@*| Lu L?i LM*}Lh 4@) U@ti L|ih LM*} Lht< tThi@_t |L 4T ,4ThU@* i_i?Ui tTTLh|?} |t Mi@Lh t M) L**? #uhit?ic BL*_t|i? @?_ Oi*i}i E2ff  @?_ ~@?} E2ffec uLh i @4T*i Ai ht! Lu ?__@* tThi@_t _i??} t@hT*) ? @ t|@|i ihi tThi@_t }i?ih@**) ?Uhi@tic hit*|t ? |i Thiti?Ui Lu tThi@_ 4T _iTi?_i?Ui Mi|ii? Lh UL44L? u@U|Lh @?_ t?}*i tThi@_t 6Lh ?Uhi@t?}*) *@h}i 4Ttc |t L*_ Thi_U| TTih u@U|Lh |@* _iTi?_i?Ui ? Lh ti||?}

 ,4ThU@* ?@*)tt

 Ai #5 #@|@ 5i|

`i t|_) |i UL44L? u@U|Lh 4L_i* Lu 5iU|L? 2 M@ti_ L? @ t@4T*i Lu Uhi_| _iu@*| t@T E#5 _@|@ Ai _@|@ UL4it uhL4 |i Ti? *LL4Mih} t)t|i4 Ai #5 LM*}Lht |@| i TU! @hi i*ii? *@h}iU@T N5 ULhTLh@|L?t |@!i? uhL4 |i S| hitL? Lu |i #L aL?it #j W?it|4i?| Bh@_i E#a #jWB ?_i  Ai *@||ih ?_i ?ihti UL?tt|t Lu 2D N5 ULhTLh@|L?t ihi #5t @hi @U|i*) ^L|i_ Oi?Uic Lh t@4T*i @tthit @ } *ii* Lu 4@h!i| *^_|)

h t@4T*i UL?|@?t S2D #5 ^L|it uLh |i ?_i @?_ uLh i@U ULhTLh@|L? _h?} |i TihL_ a@?@h) bc 2ffe |L a*) .c 2ffS Ai ^L|i_ #j ?_i tThi@_ tihit @t @ ThL ) uLh Lh UL44L? u@U|Lh E#j Ai i*ii? ?__@*

(10)

ULhTLh@|L?t ? Lh t@4T*i @hiG *|h@ BhLT W?U Ec 4ihU@? W?|ih?@|L?@* BhLT W?U EWBc Li?} L Ec @|ihT**@h W?U EAc #L i4U@* L E#`c OL?i)i** W?|ih?@|L?@* W?U EOc Oi*i||@U!@h_ L EO"c W?|ih?@|L?@* t?itt @U?it LhT EWc @hL|| W?|ih?@|L?@* W?U E+c L|LhL*@ W?U EA @?_ `@*| #t?i) L E#W5 Ai #5 ^L|it @hi @ih@}it Mi|ii? ^L|i_ M_ @?_ @t! ThUit @t @U|@* |h@?t@U|L? ThUit @hi ?L| TM*U*) @@*@M*i ** ^L|i tihit | |i i UiT|L? Lu  @?_ O" ihi LM|@?i_ @t UL4T*i|i tihit W? |i U@ti Lu  @?_ O"c |ihi ihi |L 4tt?} ^L|itc hitTiU|i*) Aiti 4tt?} _@|@ ihi *?i@h*) ?|ihTL*@|i_

5Thi@_ U@?}it @hi 4L_i*i_ @t hi*@|i tThi@_ U@?}itc {7| ' *? (7|

*? (7|3c _i |L hit*|?} ?ML?_i_ tTTLh| @?_ L|ih t|@|t|U@* ThLTih|it

Etii @*tL i} @ ?L|i ? `@}?ihc OL}@? @?_ @||i? E2ffD  Thi*4?@h) @?@*)tt Lu |i tThi@_ U@?}i tihit }it t44@h) t|@|t|Ut hit*|t @t Thiti?|i_ ? A@M*i  i@? @*it ?_U@|i |@| tThi@_t ihi _iUhi@t?} L? @ih@}i ? |i t@4T*i TihL_ 5Thi@_ U@?}i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L?t @hi ? @ h@?}i Mi|ii? ff2 uLh + @?_ ff e uLh WBc | ff2 uLh |i #j ?_i c ?_U@|?} @ hi4@h!@M*i @??@*3i_ ?_i L*@|*|) Lu Se TihUi?| Bi?ih@**) tTi@!?}c _t|hM|L?t |i?_ |L Mi TLt|i*) t!ii_ | i Uitt !h|Ltt @?_ |i tThi@_ U@?}i LMtih@|L?t tL ?i}@|i @|LULhhi*@|L?

EA@M*i  @ML| ihi

2 +it*|t

Ai €?_?}t @t t44@h3i_ ? A@M*i  ?_U@|i |@| t|@?_@h_ @TThL@Uit |L #5 tThi@_ ht! @?_ u@U|Lh _iTi?_i?Ui 4L_i*?} @hi ThL?i |L u@*hi @?_ 4Lhi _i|@*i_ |4itihitc |@* @?_ |@* _iTi?_i?Ui @?@*)tt tL*_ @TT*) Ai Thiti?|@|L? Lu Lh it|4@|L? hit*|t hiuiht |L |i 4i|L_t Lu 5iU|L? 22

W? |i €ht| t|iT i it|4@|i |i |4itihit 4L_i* Lu 5iU|L? 22 uLh Lh i*ii? LM*}Lht @?_ |i #j @ |i t|@?_@h_ 4@ 44*!i*LL_ Ew 4i|L_ W| U@? Mi ?L|i_ |@| @** B+O T@h@4i|ih it|4@|it E/c /2 |h? L| |L Mi t}?€U@?|

@| |i bb TihUi?| *ii* uLh @** tihit | *i@t| L?i Lu |i + T@h@4i|ih it| 4@|it E)c  t t}?€U@?| @| |i bf TihUi?| *ii* uLh @** M| Ac  @?_ #j ?_i tThi@_ U@?}itD At €?_?} }i?ih@**) ?_ih*?it |i _t|?U| |4itihit

&Zh wkhuhiruh ohdyh wkh uhvxowv xquhsruwhg dqg gholyhu wkhp xsrq uhtxhvw1

(11)

ThLTih|it Lu #5 tThi@_ U@?}it `i t|_) ?Thi_U|@M*i tThi@_ U@?}it ? |i ti^i*

W? |i tiUL?_ t|iT i TLt|TL?i i |hi4i Mi@Lh @?_ UL?t_ih |i u@U|Lh 4L_i* ES `i it|4@|i *i@t| t^@hit UL?t|@?| u@U|Lh ti?t||it @?_ w,kk |4i @h)?} u@U|Lh ti?t||it @t ? 5iU|L? 22   t44@h) Lu Lh hit*|t t }i? ? A@M*i 2

EA@M*i 2 @ML| ihi

t i U@? tii uhL4 A@M*i 2c #5 tThi@_ U@?}it @hi t}?€U@?|*) hi*@|i_ |L #j ?_i tThi@_ U@?}it | @** ULiUi?| it|4@|it TLt|i @?_ t}?€U@?| @| |i bD TihUi?| *ii* t Lh t@4T*i UL?tt|t Lu } ^@*|) ?it|4i?| }h@_i LM*}Lhtc |i ULiUi?|t< @MtL*|i @*it @hi hi*@|i*) *L @?_ ? @ h@?}i Mi|ii? ffH2 EuLh W @?_ f2fD EuLh #W5 5|**c i @i |L @||it| |@| |i hit*|t _LU4i?| i@! Lih@** i T*@?@|Lh) TLih Lu Lh t4T*i L?iu@U|Lh 4L_i*G + t^@hi_ t|@|t|Ut @hi ? @ h@?}i Mi|ii? f. TihUi?| EuLh W @?_ e2 TihUi?| EuLh #W5 At €?_?} **t|h@|it |@| |i 4L_i* *@U!t @__|L?@* UL@h@|it |@| i T*@? _iu@*| ht! _iTi?_i?Uic tii @*tL #@tc #ic k@T@_@ @?_ 5@|@ E2ff. AL tL4i i |i?| |i €?_?} 4@) @*tL Mi i T*@?@M*i M) @ ?L?*?i@h 4T@U| Lu |i u@U|Lh L? €h4tTiU€U Uhi_| ht!G *i UL44L? u@U|Lh U@?}it _L @h_*) @giU| t?}*i LM*}Lh tThi@_t 4Lt| Lu |i |4ic |i) MiUL4i @ _h?} uLhUi ? tL4i t|@|it Lu |i iUL?L4) A4i@h)?} u@U|Lh ti?t||it @?_ |i @?@*)tt Lu i |hi4i _iTi?_i?Ui U@? ti_ 4Lhi *}| L? tU @ tUi?@hL

A@M*i 2 @*tL hiTLh|t hit*|t L? |i w,kk |4i@h)?} u@U|Lh ti?t||it Ai hit*|t tL |@| u@U|Lh ti?t||it hi4@h!@M*) U|@|i uLh 4Lt| Lu Lh t@4T*i ULhTLh@|L?tc ?U*_?} #W5c +c #`c  @?_ A W? UL?|h@t|c  @?_ OtL t|@M*i ti?t||it 6}hi 2 T*L|t |4i@h)?} u@U|Lh ti?t||it uLh |L Lu Lh t@4T*i UL4T@?itc WB @?_ #W5 t U@? Mi tii? ? |i T*L|c u@U|Lh ti?t||it i@*) U|@|i @hL?_ |ih 4i@? @*it t tL? M) |i hit*|t ? A@M*i 2c #W5 @t @ }ih @ih@}i u@U|Lh ti?t||) |@? WB 6Lh tLh| TihL_t Lu |4ic #W5 ti?t||) hi}*@h*) 4Tt |L @*it @t } @t f D |L f.f *i WB ti?t||) @*@)t hi4@?t Mi*L f2

E6}hi  @ML| ihi

(12)

W? |i |h_ t|iT i UL?t_ih i |hi4i tThi@_ U@?}i Mi@Lh `i ti + B+O t|@?_@h_3i_ hit_@*t @?_ |i? TihuLh4 @ t4*|@?iLt wit|4@|L? Lu |i M@h@|i B# 4L_i* @t _itUhMi_ ? 5iU|L? 222 @?_ 22e At 4i|L_ )i*_t |i 4@h}?@* T@h@4i|ih it|4@|it Etii 5iU|L? 222 @t i** @t |i _iTi? _i?Ui ELh ULT*@ T@h@4i|ih it|4@|it Etii 5iU|L? 22ec Uu L*it E2ff @ti_ L? 4i@? hit_@* *ui T*L|t ELh 4i@? i Uitt u?U|L? T*L|tc tii i} ,4MhiU|tc k*TTi*Mih} @?_ !LtU Ebb.c i € |i 4@h}?@* |hitL*_t L : f @?_

u: f uLh i@U tihit

Ai B# 4@h}?@* T@h@4i|ih it|4@|it )i*_ it|4@|i_ TTih |@* ?_Uit ? |i h@?}i Lu ffH E#` @?_ f e EA wLih |@* ?_Uit @hi Mi|ii? f2 EA @?_ fDD E#W5 Aiti TL?| it|4@|i hit*|t _L ?L| LMLt*) tTTLh| u@||ih TTih |@? *Lih |@*t 6Lh |i Lih@** 4@h!i|c @t hiThiti?|i_ M) |i #j ?_i i _LU4i?| 4L_ih@|i |@* Mi@Lh Ei ?i|ih u@||@*t ?Lh |?|@*t uLh |i *Lih @t i** @t TTih |@* At t @*tL _LU4i?|i_ M) |i 4i@? hit_@* *ui T*L|t ? 6}hi 2 @?_ 6}hi  Oi?Uic Lh hit*|t tTTLh| |i )TL|itt |@| |i B+O 4L_i* U@T|hit ?L??Lh4@*|) ? 4@h!i| tThi@_ U@?}it OLiihc uLh tL4i ?__@* t@4T*i ULhTLh@|L?tc ?U*_?} WBc #W5c Oc O"c W @?_ Ac i €?_ TTih |@* ?_i TL?| it|4@|it @MLi f2fc i i |hi4i ht! uLh T@h_ E@_ihti tThi@_ hit_@*t

E6}hi 2 @ML| ihi E6}hi @ML| ihi

h ULT*@ T@h@4i|ih it|4@|L? hit*|t uLh |i TTih |@* @hi }i? ? A@M*i c |Lti uLh |i *Lih |@* @hi }i? ? A@M*i e `i @__|L?@**) hiTLh| |i UL?_|L?@* @t)4T|L|U ThLM@M*|it L @?_ u uLh |i B4Mi* ULT*@ 4L_i* Ee

EA@M*i @ML| ihi EA@M*i e @ML| ihi

Ai hit*|t uhL4 A@M*i @**L uLh |i uL**L?} UL?U*tL?t `| |i i  UiT|L? Lu O@?_ Wc ihi |i it|4@|it Lu |i _iTi?_i?Ui T@h@4i|ih k @TThL@U |i *4|?} @*i Lu c TTih |@* i |hi4i _iTi?_i?Ui ? #5 tThi@_ U@?}it t Thiti?| uLh |i LM*}Lht Ai ULhhitTL?_?} UL?_|L?@* @t)4T|L|U

(13)

ThLM@M*|it L U@? Mi ?|ihThi|i_ @t _iu@*| ThLM@M*|it }i? @ 4@Lh Uhi_|

tThi@_ tLU! |L |i 4@h!i|G i tii |@| WBc #W5 @?_ + U@hh) |i *@h}it| i |hi4i t)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht! | L it|4@|i_ |L Mi *@h}ih |@? f TihUi?|

,_i?Ui Lu @? @t)44i|hU _iTi?_i?Ui t|hU|hi |? |i TTih |@* t i@! A@M*i tLt |@| |i @t)44i|hU B4Mi* ULT*@ ED )i*_t |i|@T@h@4i|ih it|4@|it U*Lti Lh i^@* |L L?i ? 4Lt| U@tit @?_ 4Lt|*) it|4@|it Lu t4*@h 4@}?|_i ?*) |i U@tit Lu O" @?_  4@) ?_U@|i tL4i @t)44i|h) Ai B@*@4MLtaLi ULT*@ ES it|4@|L? hit*|t Th?UT@**) UL?€h4 Lh €?_?}t uhL4 |i B4Mi* ULT*@ it|4@|L?t *i |i hit*|t tL hi4@h!@M*) *itt t|@M*|)

Ai hit*|t uhL4 A@M*i e tL |@| |i _iTi?_i?Ui T@h@4i|ih k U*Lti*) @T ThL@Uit |i @*i Lu  uLh @** Lu |i LM*}Lht Oi?Uic *Lih |@* _iTi?_i?Ui t ?i}*}M*i @?_ it|4@|i_ u@U|Lh _iTi?_i?Ui ? *@h}i tThi@_ _iUhi@tit uLh #W5 @?_ Ot 4?Lh `i 4@) }i?ih@**) @tt4i |@| tThi@_ U@?}it @hi @t)4T |L|U@**) ?_iTi?_i?| E@t i} ?_ih |i M@h@|i ?Lh4@* 4L_i* @?_ |@| |i ULhhitTL?_?} UL?_|L?@* @t)4T|L|U ThLM@M*|it u @hi 3ihL }@?c i_i?Ui

Lu @? @t)44i|hU _iTi?_i?Ui t|hU|hi |? |i ?__@* |@*t t ?L| }i? L4T@h?} |i B4Mi* ULT*@ it|4@|L? hit*|t ? A@M*i ETTih |@* @?_ A@M*i e E*Lih |@* t}}it|t |@| i |hi4i _iTi?_i?Ui t @t)44i|hU i? UL? t_ih?} |i TTih ihtt |i *Lih |@* Mi@Lh , |hi4i _iTi?_i?Ui @TTi@ht @t @? tti | T@h_ tLU!t |L #j tThi@_t

e L?U*tL?

5)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht! t _hi? M) Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui W? |t UL?|hM|L? i tL |@| @ UL44L? u@U|Lh 4L_i* Lu Uhi_| ht! _iTi?_i?Ui @t tiih@* ?|ihit|?} ui@|hit `*i UL44L? u@U|Lh U@?}it 4@) @h_*) @giU| t?}*i LM*}Lht< tThi@_t 4Lt| Lu |i |4ic |i) 4@) MiUL4i @ _h?} uLhUi ? tL4i t|@|it Lu |i iUL?L4) A4i@h)?} u@U|Lh ti?t||it @?_ |i @?@*)tt Lu i |hi4i u@U|Lh _iTi?_i?Ui tLt |@| LM*}Lht ** @i @h)?} i TLthit |L |i 4@h!i| ?L| L?*) UhLtt tiU|L?@**) E@t i} }i? M) |ih h@|?} U*@tt M| @*tL _h?} |4i `i i4T@t3i |@| @ |4i@h)?} ?@|hi Lu t)t|i4@|U Uhi_| ht! }Lit @*L?} | @t)44i|hU i |hi4i _iTi?_i?Ui Aiti €?_?}t @hi 4TLh|@?| uLh TLh|uL*L _iht€U@|L? @?_ uLh u|hi hiti@hU ?|L @tti| ThU?} 4L_i*t Lu Uhi_| ht! Thi4@

(14)

+iuihi?Uit

do *4 c ihMiU! w E2ff.G 5|hU|hi_ hi_| Lh|uL*L ?@*)ttc @t!i|t @?_ #tc @T4@? : O@** +c LU@ +@|L?c wL?_L?c i vLh! d2o L**iht*i Ac L + vc khL?ih k 6 Ebb2G +O L_i*?} ? 6?@?UiG  +ii Lu |i AiLh) @?_ ,4ThU@* ,_i?Uic aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|hUt D2G DDb

d o @4TMi** +c Ot4@? + E2ff2G i@th?} hi_| 5Thi@_ +t!G W? ULhTLh@|?} |i A@*tc `Lh!?} @Tihc ,h@t4t N?iht|) +L||ih_@4 deo L*it 5 E2ffG ? W?|hL_U|L? |L 5|@|t|U@* L_i*?} Lu , |hi4i V@*

itc 5Th?}ihc wL?_L?

dDo L**?#uhit?i c BL*_t|i? + 5c Oi*i}i a E2ff G Wt hi_| ,i?| +t! hUi_q L_i*?} L?|@}L? @ |i NT_@|?} Lu i*iutc `Lh!?} @Tihc N ih!i*i)

dSo L**?#uhit?i c BL*_t|i? + 5c @h|? a 5 E2ffG Ai #i|ih 4?@?|t Lu hi_| 5Thi@_ @?}itc aLh?@* Lu 6?@?Ui DSG 2..22f.

d.o #@t 5 +c #i #c k@T@_@ c 5@|@ w E2ff.G L44L? 6@*?}tG OL LhTLh@|i #iu@*|t @hi Lhhi*@|i_c aLh?@* Lu 6?@?Ui S2G b . dHo #@t 5 +c 6hii_ wc Bi?} Bc k@T@_@  E2ffSG Lhhi*@|i_ #iu@*|

+t!c aLh?@* Lu 6 i_ W?UL4i SG . 2

dbo #@t 5 +c Bi?} B E2ffeG Lhhi*@|i_ #iu@*| hLUittitG  h|i hL? @ti_ LT*@ TThL@Uc aLh?@* Lu W?it|4i?| @?@}i4i?| 2G ee.f EhiTh?|i_ @t @T|ih b Lu |t L*4i

dfo #@t c wL V E2ffG W?uiU|Lt #iu@*|c "@?||@|i 6?@?Ui G H2 H.

do _i 5ih}?) c +i?@*|  E2ff2G #iu@*| Lhhi*@|L?G ,4ThU@* ,_i?Uic `Lh!?} @Tihc 5|@?_@h_ : LLh<t

d2o #i #c ,U!?ih c OLhi* Bc 5@|@ w E2ffSG 6h@*|) Lhhi*@|i_ #iu@*|c `Lh!?} @Tihc 5|@?uLh_ N?iht|)

(15)

d o #i #c 5?}*i|L?c k a EbbHG 54*@|?} Lhhi*@|i_ #iu@*|tc `Lh!?} @Tihc 5|@?uLh_ N?iht|)

deo #i #c 5?}*i|L?c k a E2ff G hi_| +t!G hU?}c i@thi4i?|c @?_ @?@}i4i?|c h?Ui|L? N?iht|) hittc h?Ui|L?

dDo ,4MhiU|t c k*TTi*Mih} c !LtU A Ebb.G L_i**?} ,  |hi4@* ,i?|t uLh W?th@?Ui @?_ 6?@?Uic 5Th?}ihc i vLh!

dSo ,?}*i + 6c khL?ih k 6 EbbDG *|@h@|i 54*|@?iLt Bi?ih@* 3i_ +Oc ,UL?L4i|hU AiLh) G 22Df

d.o a@hhL + c v 6 E2ffG L?|ihT@h|) +t! @?_ |i hU?} Lu #i u@*|@M*i 5iUh|itc aLh?@* Lu 6?@?Ui DSG .SD.bb

dHo w # j EbbbG ? #iu@*| Lhhi*@|L?G  LT*@ 6?U|L? TThL@Uc `Lh!?} @Tihc +t!i|hUtc i vLh!

dbo wU@t c k*@@tti? c 5Thi c 5|h@i|4@?t 5 E2ffG ? ?@ *)|U TThL@U |L hi_| +t! Lu w@h}i LhTLh@|i L?_ @?_ wL@? Lh|uL*Ltc aLh?@* Lu @?!?} @?_ 6?@?Ui 2DG S DSSe

d2fo wU@t # a EbbDG #iu@*| Lhhi*@|L? @?_ hi_| ?@*)ttc aLh?@* Lu 6 i_ W?UL4i DG .SH.

d2o wL?}?c 6c 5L*?!c  E2ffG , |hi4i Lhhi*@|L? Lu W?|ih?@|L?@* ,^ |) @h!i|tc aLh?@* Lu 6?@?Ui DSG SebS.S

d22o @htc A c `@}?ihc  E2fffG +i|h?VL*4i #iTi?_i?Ui @?_ , |hi4it ? W?|ih?@|L?@* ,^|) @h!i|tc `Lh!?} @Tih L +62b c N ih!i*i)

d2 o i_hLt@c c +L**c + EbbHG 5)t|i4@|U +t! ? LhTLh@|i L?_ hi_| 5Thi@_tc aLh?@* Lu 6 i_ W?UL4ic #iUi4Mih bbHG .2S

d2eo L@ ` EbbbG ,t|4@|?} hi_| 5Thi@_ +t! t?} , |hi4i V@*i AiLh)c aLh?@* Lu Lh|uL*L @?@}i4i?|c 5Th?} bbbG Sb.

d2Do 5U*L}* , E2ff2G #iu@*| Lhhi*@|L? L_i**?}c AiU?U@* L|ic N?ih t|) Lu AiU?L*L})c 5)_?i)

(16)

d2So 5UL?MUih c 5UMih| # E2fffG LT*@#iTi?_i?| #iu@*| +t! ? W?|i?t|) L_i*tc `Lh!?} @Tihc L?? N?iht|)

d2.o @? _ih VLLh|  E2ffeG #LM*i #iu@*| Lhhi*@|L?c `Lh!?} @Tihc ,h@t4t N?iht|) +L||ih_@4

d2Ho V@tUi!   EbH.G hLM@M*|) Lu wLtt L? wL@? Lh|uL*Lc `Lh!?} @Tihc kV LhTLh@|L?

d2bo `@}?ih c OL}@? `c @||i? a  E2ffDG W?|ihit| +@|itc 5|LU! +i|h?t @?_ hi_| 5Thi@_tG ,_i?Ui uhL4 Bih4@? ,hLML?_tc ,UL?L4U L|it eG DDf

d fo v 6 E2ff G #iu@*| Lhhi*@|L? ? +i_Ui_6Lh4 L_i*tc `Lh!?} @ Tihc N Wh?i

d o ~@?} B E2ffeG W?|h@W?_t|h) hi_| L?|@}L?G ,_i?Ui uhL4 |i hi_| #iu@*| 5@T @h!i| @?_ |i 5|LU! @h!i|c `Lh!?} @Tihc N Wh?i

d 2o ~L  E2ffG ? ?@*)tt Lu #iu@*| Lhhi*@|L? @?_ *|T*i #iu@*|tc +ii Lu 6?@?U@* 5|_it eG DDDD.S

(17)

A@M*i 

Vxppdu| vwdwlvwlfv iru gdlo| orjdulwkplf FGV vsuhdg fkdqjhv{7| qdph phdq vwg vnhz nxuw fruu|(|3 fruu|(|32

#j ffff ff2 fef2 f2e ffH ff WB ffff ff e  Sf e2Hbb f2. ffe  fff2 ff f f fe DH. fbf f A ffff ff2H f H SHS. fbe ff2e #W5 fff ff 2 ffee SSfS f fSf #` fff ff f feDD HbbD ff22 ffD. O fff ff2H fbb2 ff2 fDf ff2b O" ffff ff 2 fDH 2bSD fbS fb W fff ff2. 22.. 2SS. fS2 ff.2 + ffff ff2 fSHe ff  ffHe ff.H  fff2 ff2. 2fS 2Dbe ff2 ff.S A fff ff2D fe2b HeS f e f2

(18)

A@M*i 2

Srlqw hvwlpdwhv ri idfwru vhqvlwlylwlhv K wrjhwkhu zlwk w0ydoxhv dqg frhflhqwv ri ghwhuplqdwlrq/ vwdwlvwlfv rq wkh EHNN wlph0ydu|lqj idfwru vhqvlwlylwlhvKc|1

qdph K w0ydoxh U2 4?EKc| 4@ EKc| vwgEKc| WB f2 fD ffD ffSS f2fe ffb  f 2He ff ff2 fHH ff2D A feS S. ff2 f2 f2S2 fff #W5 f2fD D2 ffe2 f e f.f. ffSH #` fDb ef ff2D ffb f2D2 ff O ffHH 2b fffH ffS ffHe fff O" f D e ffH ffbH f H ff W ffH2 2fe fff. ffH ff.b ff + f  ffH fD2 f2D ff .  fD 2Hb ff ffb f. fff A fee S ff2f ffeH f 2 ff2e

(19)

A@M*i

Xsshu wdlo PO0hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv iru wkh elyduldwh JSG HYW0frsxod prgho1 - ghqrwhv sdudphwhu glhuhqw iurp }hur dw wkh <8 shufhqw ohyho1

 Jxpeho dv|10Jx1 Jdodp1 qdph k I k w w2 k w w2 #j ff WB fbD fbfS8 2S fb8 fbbb8 f.eH feHb8 fbbb8 f   fD fb.b8 2b fbbb8 f.eD f.H. Dff8 ff S f2Sf A 2D fb b8 H fbDS8 f. e fff8 .2D ffS.b f DD #W5 2D fbf8 2 fbfH8 fff8 f.e8 Dff8 fb28 ff. f #` ff fb b8 H fbS8 fbbb8 f.S2  Df feHb8 ff D O 2D fbbb8 f fbbb8 f..D fbH. f2ff8 feDe feH. O" Df fbeD8 .D fDDf feb f ef .e fee f 2 W Df fff8 f fbbb8 f.S fbHe f2f8 feDe fS  + Df fb8 2f feD. f2Se8 fS ebS f2De8 fSH  fHD fbS8 D fbHS8 f. e fff8 D.2 ffSf. fS.b8 A 2D fb2b8 bS fbe.8 f. e fff8 f.bf f.. fee

(20)

A@M*i e

Orzhu wdlo PO0hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv iru wkh elyduldwh JSG HYW0frsxod prgho1 - ghqrwhv sdudphwhu glhuhqw iurp }hur dw wkh <8 shufhqw ohyho1

 Jxpeho dv|10Jx1 Jdodp1

qdph k I k w w2 k w w2

#j Df

WB Df fff8 ff fff8 f.Hb f.H2 f2f8 fDS fDD  eD fff8 ff fbbb8 fbee f.b. f eb ffSb fff8 A Df fff8 ff fbbb8 fH fHf f2ff8 fDbD fSfS #W5 bD fbSe8 Df fSH.8 ffD fbbb8 f SS ffbHD fff8 #` f2D fbHH8 . fbS28 fff fbe f2ff8 ff Df fDD2 O Df fbSb8 e fbS8 f.2 fff8 bHSD ffD.2 fb O" DD fbbb8 f fbbb8 f.fS fbDD f2ff8 fSf f.fD W ff fbbb8 f fff8 fH2S fHH f2ff8 f .D fD2b + f.D fbHD8 2 fbHb8 fbbb8 f.2H f2HD fbbb8 ffb .  Df fbbb8 f fff8 fHDH fHeH f2ff8 fDSb fDSD A Df fbbb8 f fff8 fHH. fHf f2f8 fSeS fS2. 2f

(21)

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

14-Jan-04 7-Jun-04 28-Oct-04 24-Mar-05 16-Aug-05 12-Jan-06 7-Jun-06 BEKK AIG BEKK DIS

6}hi G ,kk UL?_|L?@* #j u@U|Lh ULhhi*@|L? uLh 4ihU@? W?|ih?@|L?@* BhLT W?U EWB @?_ `@*| #t?i) L E#W5

(22)

6}hi 2G i@? i Uitt u?U|L? uLh TTih |@* #j t|@?_@h_3i_ ?Thi_U|@M*i tThi@_ U@?}it

(23)

6}hi G i@? i Uitt u?U|L? uLh *Lih |@* #j t|@?_@h_3i_ ?Thi_U|@M*i tThi@_ U@?}it

Références

Documents relatifs