Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

9803

RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About

Inflation Targets

Département de sciences économiques

Université de Montréal

Faculté des arts et des sciences C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-Ville Montréal (Québec) H3C 3J7 Canada http://www.sceco.umontreal.ca SCECO-information@UMontreal.CA Téléphone : (514) 343-6539 Télécopieur : (514) 343-7221

Ce cahier a également été publié par le Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative (CIREQ) sous le numéro 0398.

This working paper was also published by the Center for Interuniversity Research in Quantitative Economics (CIREQ), under number 0398.

CAHIER 9803

UNCOVERING FINANCIAL MARKETS BELIEFS ABOUT INFLATION TARGETS

Francisco J. RUGE-MURCIA1

1

Centre de recherche et développement en économique (C.R.D.E.) and Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal

March 1998

_______________

This project was started while the author was visiting at the IDEI, Université des Sciences Sociales (Toulouse, France) in spring 1997. He would like to thank Serena Ng for providing the code to estimate the density of inflation forecast errors, and Jean Farès at the Bank of Canada for his help in obtaining the data. Financial support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada and the Fonds pour la formation de chercheurs et l’aide à la recherche (FCAR) of Québec is gratefully acknowledged.

RÉSUMÉ

Ce papier exploite la structure à terme des taux d’intérêt afin de développer des restrictions économiques testables sur le processus conjoint des taux d’intérêt à long terme et de l’inflation quand cette dernière est soumise à une politique de contrôle à l’intérieur d’une fourchette cible de la part de la Banque centrale. Deux modèles concurrents qui décrivent, en termes économétriques, les inférences des agents sur l’inflation cible sont développés et génèrent des prédictions distinctes sur l’évolution des taux d’intérêt. L’application empirique du modèle au Canada, qui pratique une politique monétaire avec intervalle-cible d’inflation, indique, d’une part, que la fourchette perçue par les agents économiques est significativement plus étroite que celle qui est officiellement annoncée et, d’autre part, que celle-ci est asymétrique par rapport au point médian visé. Ce dernier résultat (i) suggère que les autorités monétaires attribuent des poids différents aux déviations positives et négatives par rapport au point médian, et (ii) remet en question, sur le plan empirique, l’hypothèse fréquemment faite dans la littérature que la fonction de perte du décideur de la politique monétaire est symétrique (habituellement une fonction quadratique) autour du niveau d’inflation désiré.

Mots clés : inflation cible, crédibilité, asymétrie, modèles avec attentes rationnelles non linéaires

ABSTRACT

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

Key words : inflation targets, credibility, asymmetries, nonlinear rational expectations models

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